#Punxsutawney Phil Prediction

[dinosaurwithablog]

Spring has sprung!!!!! 😊😍 Punxsutawney Phil was right!!! Yippee cayay MF!!!

[fuzzytimes1]

Punxsutawney Phil makes his prediction

Listen, listen now! Dot Tawny Phil this February 2nd. The seer of seers was awakened from his hibernation at dawn. On Gobbler’s button, Phil looked up at the sky and then spoke in groundhogs and guided this Presidential Uncle to the correct scroll which reads I see the morning has brought the best of people. I see their bravery and their spirit. The time has come. I can feel it, the excitement, I…

[xtruss]

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil Predicts An Early Spring

— By Jacob Geanous | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette | February 2, 2024

Punxsutawney Phil, Western Pennsylvania’s famed weather-predicting groundhog, predicted an early spring Friday morning after he emerged from his burrow and did not see his shadow.

The mystical marmot was summoned at dawn by the members of the Groundhog Club Inner Circle, a group of local dignitaries tasked with caring for Phil and organizing the annual Groundhog Day at Gobbler’s Knob — a small hill approximately 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast an early spring. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

Phil’s prediction comes as sunshine and temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected for the week ahead, weather that Groundhog Day organizers said, in part, led to an estimated 30,000 visitors for the town’s festivities.

Phil’s forecast predicted six more weeks of winter the past three years after calling for an early spring in 2019 and 2020.

Here’s What You Should Know.

Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 137th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger) (AP)

What Are The Origins Of Groundhog Day

The custom dates back to an early Christian tradition known as Candlemas, in which celebrants declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant a longer winter. Pennsylvania’s earliest settlers brought the tradition with them.

As for Phil, he rose to fame after appearing in Punxsutawney’s local newspaper in 1886. A member of a groundhog hunting group known as “The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club” used his clout at the paper to trumpet Phil, named after King Phillip, as the only official weather prognosticating groundhog.

Phil’s popularity grew from there, and the first of many annual Groundhog Day treks to Gobbler’s Knob followed in 1887.

Groundhog Day is led by the Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle, a group of 15 local dignitaries who also feed and take care of Phil year round, although the Inner Circle president is the only one responsible for translating Phil’s predictions.

Are Phil’s Predictions Foolproof?

Despite his induction into the Punxsutawney Weather Discover Center’s Meteorologist Hall of Fame last year, Phil is not always spot on in his predictions.

In fact, Phil’s Winter prognostications have been accurate just 39% of the time over 135 years, according to StormFax Weather Almanac.

Throughout the history of Groundhog Day, Phil has also been shown to be much more likely to predict six more weeks of winter.

He has seen his shadow 108 times while seeing no shadow 20 times.

There is no record of nine of his predictions during a span between 1889 and 1899, although it was reported that Phil did not see his shadow in 1890, predicting an early Spring.

President Tom Dunkel and Groundhog handler AJ Derume with Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow, predicting a late spring during the 137th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2023 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. A crowd of upwards of 5,000 people spent a night of revelry awaiting the sunrise and the groundhog's exit from his winter den. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather

What Does Phil Do The Rest Of The Year?

Although Groundhog Day brings the most visitors to Punxsutawney and the surrounding region, residents and Groundhog Day organizers said it's not the only time to visit the small town of about 6,000.

However, anyone who wants to meet the meteorological mammal outside of Groundhog Day will have to visit him at his home, a climate-controlled burrow at the Punxsutawney Memorial Library.

Phil also travels to events across the country in either his handlers’ vehicles or his tricked-out Philmobile.

Meanwhile, when Phil isn’t meeting with fans, he’s snacking on kale, bananas, carrots, apples and sweet potatoes.

Groundhog Club Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel and other Inner Circle members present Punxsutawney Phil to visitors on Groundhog Day 2023. Credit: Tom Dunkel (Tom Dunkel)

The Holiday Is A Boon For The Town And Region

With Groundhog Day comes an influx of visitors and cash to Punxsutawney and the surrounding rural region.

Hotels across the region book up months in advance of the day and the visitors bring a much needed boost to local businesses during the traditionally slow month of January.

“It has a great impact on our local businesses,” Katie Laska, Punxsutawney Area Chamber of Commerce president and owner of Laska’s Pizza. “It’s the shot in the arm that we need every year.”

Groundhog Club Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel and other Inner Circle members present Punxsutawney Phil to visitors on Groundhog Day 2023. Credit: Tom Dunkel (Tom Dunkel)

The effects also extend far past Punxsutawney into the entire region.

“Groundhog Day is a major asset not just for the town of Punxsutawney, but also for the PA Wilds region as a whole,” said Britt Madera, communications manager for the PA Wilds Center for Entrepreneurship, a nonprofit focused on conservation and economic development in the region. “When visitors come to see Phil make his annual prognostication, they're often inspired to continue exploring other parts of the region too.”

All Eyes on Punxsutawney

The nation's attention turns to western Pennsylvania this morning to watch the country's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, determine whether 2024 will bring an early spring or a longer winter. The prescient land-beaver will pick one of two scrolls, each containing separate wintery prophecies.

As is tradition, the slumberous whistle-pig will join his top-hatted crew to see whether he'll spot his shadow (foretelling six more weeks of winter) or relax a bit with his admiring fans (predicting an early spring). Phil is right about 40% of the time—or an impressive 60% if you flip the somewhat arbitrary rules.

The ceremony was originally conceived of by a local newspaper editor in 1886 but has its roots in Eastern European celebrations of the midway between the winter solstice and spring equinox—and also falls on the lesser-known Christian holiday, Candlemas.

Historical accounts suggest farmers used the appearance of hibernating mammals to signal spring. In reality, science suggests the salacious marmot likely appears to check for mates.

— Magazine 1440

[hauntingrabbits]

BATTLE 01: HAMSTERWHEEL

[future-crab]

Just found out that the hill where Groundhog’s Day is celebrated is called “Gobbler’s Knob.” Deeply unserious country.

[maddiviner]

Imagine being a GROUNDHOG THERIAN. You’d have an ENTIRE DAY celebrating your theriotype?!! On the other hand, every other day is technically every otter day, so that’s a thing, too. 😝

Also this guy on Facebook was shittalking Punxsutawney Phil on Facebook. Lol he said, “he’s just a groundhog, not even the king of rodents, just a normal rodent, yet Pennsyvanians worship him.” Then he said he was from Colorado, so there might be a meme there I’m missing, but anyways. I went ahead and asked him who, exactly, he believed the legitimate rodent king to be.

He did not reply. I will always defend Punxsutawney Phil - consider the pressure he’s under, every single February...

[musicprincess1990]

Alrighty, Phil, what's the verdict?

Hey, he usually predicts early spring, and he's usually wrong. This year he might actually be right! 😂

[poorlittlevampire]

TODAY IS GROUNDHOG DAY?????

[doctor-peggy]

I almost forgot!!! Happy marmot day to everyone except this poor guy who does not seem to be enjoying himself. America, your gods are strange and interesting.

Also last year I wrote a poem about him while I was in a depressive haze and it ended up submitting it to a magazine so I did not post it. But! This year I will. Because it’s very silly and I’m proud of it for this reason. Not that I have an audience but I mean you know that’s not the point of tumblr anyhow.

Marmot; A short love letter to Phil

I wonder what he’s thinking when

They lift him up so high

You worship him, your god of spring

He’s just a little guy

He truly is just. A little guy. Thank you to my friend for reminding me that today is Groundhog Day.

[filosofablogger]

Happy Groundhog Day!!! - Redux (again)

[cat-cosplay]

"Once a year, the eyes of the nation turned to this tiny hamlet in Western Pennsylvania to watch a master at work. The Master? Punxsutawney Phil, the world's most famous weatherman. The groundhog. Who is legend has it can predict the coming of an early Spring. So I guess the question we have to ask ourselves today is. Does Phil feel lucky?"

[thesmegalodon]

Sorry didn't want to crowd that post about Groundhogs, but I recently read a paper about groundhog day and how American groundhogs are more a hodgepodge of unreliability. There is not one Master Groundhog, and it's clear some of these groundhogs are clearly slacking (I jest!)

Famous American groundhog Punxsutawney Phil (from the OG Pennsylvania) has only a 30-40% accuracy rate depending on how long ago you measure. And only a handful of groundhogs (out of 41) are above 50%

Staten Island Chuck and Chuckles (from Connecitcut) are the most consistently accurate groundhogs at 60% with Sir Walter Wally ranks about 58% HOWEVER all 3 are massively outshined by Beardsley Bart (pairie dog) and Sand Mountain Sam (oppossum) at 78% and 75% respectively (José Luiz Martiéz, CT Mirror 2022) Now this gets into "how do you measure if a guess is right" territory for these exact numbers so some of this is all over the place. Wiarton Willie gets reported as having a 25% accuracy rate a 39% accuracy rate (Canadian Encyclopedia) or a 54% accuracy rate (Ross et al 2021)

But the MOST ACCURATE GROUNDHOG is by far the Canadian Oil Springs Ollie with an 83% accuracy rating. The worst is Buckeye Chuck with a 10% accuracy rating who, out of the last 15 or so predictions, was wrong about 14 of them While there was no significant relationship between latitude and correctness when measured, a big problem is that groundhogs actually emerge in March, not Febuary and at least in Canada that means groundhogs have to be woken up to predict the weather or else they live in a zoo and are not out there in nature reporting from the field

It is unlikely any more scientific evaluation of the accuracy of animal meteorologists will be conducted with hard rigour, but it would be fun to see! I hope these Fun Facts were interesting!

^^^ groundhog meteorologist facts for your monday morning

[melinoelabs]

A 20-year study of using diffuse light to keep Punxsutawney Phil from seeing his shadow strongly indicates the groundhog is controlling the weather, not predicting it.

Top researchers are now working on practical applications of this knowledge for the betterment of mankind and the sports-betting industries.

[krispyy-lotol]

NO YOU DONT EVEN GET IT PHIL CONNORS LIVED HIS WHOLE LIFE IN CONTROL. HE THOUGHT HE HAD SO MUCH POWER BECAUSE HE BASICALLY DECIDED WHAT HAPPENED THE NEXT DAY/WEEK WEATHER-WISE. HE WAS LIKE THE GROUNDHOG PHIL. BUT THEN WHAT HE PREDICTED WAS WRONG AND THERE WAS A BLIZZARD. PHIL WAS FINE BEFORE HIS PREDICTION WAS WRONG. HE LOST THE CONTROL HED ALWAYS HAD.

FUCK I LOVE GROUNDHOG DAY

YES HELLO

and then he starts predicting in a different way he starts predicting people and interactions and relationships but even the literal time-altering event can’t get him a perfect prediction. he learns to stop expecting to be in control, to stop wanting to *know* everything that he can use just to help himself.

wait this ask reminded me of my favorite letterboxd review ever hold on-

are you seeing this shit maddie

also phil connors’ parallels with Punxsutawney phil are so so important. thankb you

[breelandwalker]

Months and Magical Associations

In an attempt to kick off a discussion, here's something that's been rattling around in my head this week:

Does anyone else have particular associations for the calendar months? Not just for the full moons that fall within them for for the month itself.

For me, it's a sliding scale between This Month Is Optimal For This Thing and I'm Feeling A Vibe. I don't think it's based on anything other than my own preferences, the change of seasons, and certain holidays, although I do know there are some astrological connotations to the idea.

For example, in my mind, February is associated with light and candle magic. I figure this is mostly because of my personal connection to Brighid and the holiday of Candlemas, and also because of Groundhog's Day. (I grew up in Pennsylvania, so Punxsutawney Phil predicting the weather every year was a big deal for us.)

Some months are nebulous, while others are more definite. April is sort of vaguely about flower magic, while November is very definitely about creativity and inspiration.

So...anyone else have associations they'd like to share? There's no right or wrong answers, just curiosity.

[chipadequeso]

phil connors groundhog parallels jesus christ. theyre both stuck in the middle of this town seeing tomorrow. they both predict the weather except phil connors gets his prediction wrong while the groundhog phil correctly predicts a long winter. who is that emerging from his burrow who can see today what we wont see until tomorrow. phil like the groundhog watch out for your shadow pal. he's smiling at me/he's got a spring in his step and yet there's a hint of sadness. phillip of punxsutawney.