#casualty numbers

[angrybell]

Aizenberg is a board member of Honest Reporting.

[kelluinox]

Egypt has sent 40 tanks to shoot at civilians trying to flee an active war zone. Shoot civilians. That are trying to flee an active war zone. But yes, let's waste our time with outrage against Israel, and not the country that has closed its border, has done everything to prevent evacuation of civilians, and has now sent tanks to shoot at them

When Ukrainians needed to flee a war zone, Europe opened its doors to them immediately. When Palestinians need to escape a war their terrorist government started, Egypt and other Arab countries close their doors, lock them, and send soldiers to shoot those trying to flee.

[booasaur]

Can you imagine the violence and indiscriminate brutality that would do this? The intention? In a tiny strip of land where the people are trapped and even the survivors are left traumatized, wounded, and starved in such a comprehensive way they'll carry this for the rest of their lives?

I remember when the number was more than one year of worldwide conflict. Can you imagine not doing everything in your power to stop it then, and instead helping it continue?

[dimension20stuff]

I feel bad for the folks that aren't listening to the fireside chats, cuz this is a completely different podcast without the insight into the characters' thought process

[silicacid]

No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health

Benjamin Q Huynh, Elizabeth T Chin, Paul B Spiegel

Published: December 06, 2023

Mortality reporting is a crucial indicator of the severity of a conflict setting, but it can also be inflated or under-reported for political purposes. Amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza, some political parties have indicated scepticism about the reporting of fatalities by the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH).

The Gaza MoH has historically reported accurate mortality data, with discrepancies between MoH reporting and independent United Nations analyses ranging from 1·5% to 3·8% in previous conflicts. A comparison between the Gaza MoH and Israeli Foreign Ministry mortality figures for the 2014 war yielded an 8·0% discrepancy.2 Public scepticism of the current reports by the Gaza MoH might undermine the efforts to reduce civilian harm and provide life-saving assistance. Using publicly available information, we compared the Gaza MoH's mortality reports with a separate source of mortality reporting and found no evidence of inflated rates. We conducted a temporal analysis of cumulative-reported mortality within Gaza for deaths of Gazans as reported by the MoH and reported staff member deaths from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), from Oct 7 to Nov 10, 2023. These two data sources used independent methods of mortality verification, enabling assessment of reporting consistency.

We observed similar daily trends, indicating temporal consistency in response to bombing events until a spike of UNRWA staff deaths occurred on Oct 26, 2023, when 14 UNRWA staff members were killed, of whom 13 died in their homes due to bombings. Subsequent attacks raised the UNRWA death rate while MoH hospital services diminished until MoH communications and mortality reporting collapsed on Nov 10, 2023. During this period, mortality might have been under-reported by the Gaza MoH due to decreased capacity. Cumulative reported deaths were 101 UNRWA staff members and 11,078 Gazans over 35 days. By comparison, an average of 4884 registered deaths occurred per year in 2015–19 in Gaza.

Cumulative reported mortality rates (Oct 7–Nov 10, 2023)

Data are calculated by separate death reports from the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH; red line) and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA; blue line).

If MoH mortality figures were substantially inflated, the MoH mortality rates would be expected to be higher than the UNRWA mortality rates. Instead, the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5.3 deaths per 1000 vs 7.8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023). Hypothetically, if MoH mortality data were inflated from, for example, an underlying value of 2–4 deaths per 1000, it would imply that UNRWA staff mortality risk is 2.0–3.9 times higher than that of the public. This scenario is unlikely as many UNRWA staff deaths occurred at home or in areas with high civilian populations, such as in schools or shelters.

Mortality reporting is difficult to conduct in ongoing conflicts. Initial news reports might be imprecise, and subsequent verified reports might undercount deaths that are not recorded by hospitals or morgues, such as persons buried under rubble. However, difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data. Although valid mortality counts are important, the situation in Gaza is severe, with high levels of civilian harm and extremely restricted access to aid. Efforts to dispute mortality reporting should not distract from the humanitarian imperative to save civilian lives by ensuring appropriate medical supplies, food, water, and fuel are provided immediately.

[runawaymarbles]

at this point i am simply uninterested in any opinion on a hot-button political topic that treats human beings as a mass of meaningless hypotheticals

[eretzyisrael]

by Abraham Wyner

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

Are there better numbers? Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’ numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

The data used in the article can be found here, with thanks to Salo Aizenberg who helped check and correct these numbers.

[neige-leblanche]

rook should've let vil poison neige and woken him up with a kiss

OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

[vikkrest]

Can the world just stop for a second and fucking BREATHE?

[socialjusticefail]

This article explains why the Hamas controlled Gaza Ministry of Health is providing numbers that are likely fake.

[hoarding-stories]

At least Eursulon rescued the wizards that were flung around...

[highlyincorrect]

Diego: Im going to have to ask you to never cook on the oven again, Five

Five: I think I did fine

Allison, walking up to them: Ok, the fire department controlled the blaze, I think it only destroyed the south wing

[taiwantalk]

I meant demoralizing to russians

[feymarche]

hes lincoln li wilson............. hes just twelve years old.......... two years ago he was just twelve plus two........ thirteen.............................

[gaysheep]

maybe if i had gatekept lemon demon harder this wouldn't have happened

[eretzyisrael]

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