#fake hamas casualty numbers

[eretzyisrael]

Source

[girlactionfigure]

Hello guys, 

the purpose of this post is to provide you with easy access to every post which debunks a major subject of the Palestinian narrative. Enjoy. 

About the Hamas massacre, and the current Israeli-Gaza war:

1. All documented evidence (so far) of the Hamas massacre on October 7th: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1720536075817398620?t=FWXyYS5JoODZuCfC0xV0cA&s=19

2. The "Israel has killed its' own people" conspiracy: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1742678536681300267?t=-famAhuZaSNsKR8m6ZY-0w&s=19

3. The Hannibal Directive conspiracy: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1739289302071185757?t=VaSEQTmqFyAmAbaAUiHdsw&s=19

4. The "Israel harvests organs from Palestinians in Gaza" conspiracy: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1740493490457362488?t=I-oHWCQSMPa5p0X9EShVBg&s=19

5. Hamas has always been exploiting hospitals in Gaza for military purposes: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1743249465782235381?t=FjFiQdkpmR2CEf1FWBshhA&s=19

6. The "IDF shooting at Palestinians in Gaza" propaganda videos: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1750277607650685205?t=J2jzW4yek5yJrKN9blL7Kg&s=19

7. What the international law really says about the current war in Gaza: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1743024536302350349?t=WEMi9Wimlf2GNYVQZ_hLow&s=19

8. Hamas are faking their numbers of casualties: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1744119191475540176?t=0fAuQuL3H3GP5UrNFhJ7RQ&s=19

9. Palestinian teachers affiliated with Hamas: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1748071720647332286?t=4y4Pb8hagaZHqrgBxs9XuQ&s=08

10. Palestinian journalists are actually terrorists: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1745561440717504520?t=bdE7MWcPa4RuoJfcSR7QUw&s=19

Who really radicalizes their children: 

11. The "Israeli children holding guns" propaganda: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1746081709009821729?t=p7QuekhTipTbfFLYQT6rZA&s=19

12. The child-martyrdom cult of the Palestinian Authority: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1737978763428737268

13. Palestinian children are trained to become terrorists: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1749881558889066565?t=ncU8PZrFgfXy70qa8SF2Ig&s=19

The Palestinian Authority has the same purpose as Hamas:

14. The "10 Point Program" of the Palestinian Authority: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1749143735965794708?t=BENgP47EeaEZGZqqmTWqgA&s=19

15. How Arafat lied to the entire world during the Oslo Accords: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1747387464925212728?t=SLLsUVLbcBzE-VjcwxTsTg&s=08

16. How the Palestinian Authority funds terrorism: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1748385300559069372?t=L-3UeHJcK65kJEUwq-BoYw&s=19

17. What the charters of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority actually say: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1750624196219060256?t=EKGEgU68hvcMXdyU3vf59g&s=19

The "Israeli Occupation" propaganda: 

18. There is no "Israeli Occupation" according to the international law: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1733969873024225660?t=9IeggCxUiiIEQkU79LY9_w&s=08

19. Arab Muslims were massacring Jews since 1920, it didn't start in 1947: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1743753558992814150?t=rwjYcba57rLpFY-XCklhlw&s=08

20. The original "Palestinians" are Jews: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1741936249479352806?t=g10cgm_Zg7jFunI8nkHnRA&s=08

21. Gaza isn't a concentration camp: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1739590303533658372?t=0omGX8JLA5k-xY479kdGqw&s=19

22. What Happened after the Israeli pull-out from Gaza in 2005: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1741574620896022711?t=AXKMHkGjxPi2MaI9BQBzsA&s=19

23. "The Jews came to Palestine as refugees" narrative: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1747224380361396574?t=TILCTBJyBYfFqOoMRiyd2g&s=08

24. Israel isn't an apartheid state: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1747893184154226800?t=cN8vb30yL1q53NxXQpMYuQ&s=08

25. Israel isn't an apartheid state 2: https://x.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1746653096980209724?t=y_th6LgBZmTC6MGqEpIjmw&s=08

26. Israel isn't an apartheid state 3: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1740078451535630719?t=piKK-35XdbLocqCjBDGXSg&s=19

27. UNRWA is an international scam, and are aiding terrorists: https://twitter.com/shlomo_fishman/status/1744840770941551014?t=AKJHGqG18Jxk3-9pfE_QZQ&s=19

Any future posts I find important, will be also added here. Thanks a lot for your support.

Shlomo Fishman

@shlomo_fishman

[floralcavern]

All right I’m finally doing this.

Name’s Flora. I’m a gray-desinoromantic heteroflexible girl. This is my side blog. I write fanfics on there. Or you can check out my AO3 account!

I’m 17 years old. I’m in a ton of fandoms, my main ones being The Song of Achilles, Percy Jackson, The Owl House, Wings of Fire, many different Webtoons, TBHK, and many others. I’m Catholic, so don’t talk shit about my religion to me, I’m so tired of it. From that one country where people eat way too unhealthy and likes freedom 👍 I am the embodiment of stressed and depressed, but well dressed. I really like writing and world building. If you wanna check out some of the stuff I’ve written, sort through the tags on my blog by putting in ‘Writers on Tumblr’ Here’s my Spotify account if you wanna check out my 200+ playlists:

I’m an Israel supporter and pro-Zionism. Sooo.. ya. I don’t give a shit what you think about me. But please know that this does not mean I do not care for the citizens of Palestine. The real threat is Hamas.

My opinion on the IDF (because it’s a lot more complex than you think)

HOLY SHIT PLEASE SEE THIS

Do you really know what it is you’re chanting?

Important

Important 2

Important 3 (extremely fucking important)

Important 4

Important 5

Important 6

Important 7

Important 8

Important 9

You guessed it. Important 10

Important 11

Important 12

Oh wow! Important 13!

Heartbreaking.

News on the hostages

Hamas doesn’t welcome Christians

Your antisemitism does hurt people

Fuck Hamas

ZIONISM. IS. SEXY.

They have security for a reason

Fuck UNRWA

Hamas’s war crimes

Al Jazeera is not credible

LET HER COOK

So much misinformation

Antizionism is antisemitism

Hostages

The side of everything that no one sees online

Your movement is turning into a death cult

Have it make sense

This is no where close to genocide

Israel has tried peace over and over again

But-But Israel hates Muslims!

I fucking swear, if I see one more person say the hostages were treated well, I will scream

I’m afraid ignorance is contagious

“The hostages said they were treated in well!” You are gullible as hell..

Y’all can support the existence of Palestine without being racist toward Israelis

This is war, not genocide. Also, Hamas are liars

Get your savior complex out of here and learn to hold people accountable

Free the hostages, holy crap.. (t/w for blood)

Confuse them in their own bullshit!

Ignorance.. ignorance everywhere

You’re actually harming your own cause

The casualty numbers are FAKE

It’s the appropriation of Jewish history for me

Oh wow. Al Jazeera. Lying? Who would’ve thought?

Hamas aren’t freedom fighters

Actually extremely interesting

This literally is a war, no matter how much you deny it

Wait until they learn they’re reciting KKK and Nazi propaganda

Hamas do. Not. Care. For the Palestinians

Experts, people who have studied this shit for years, agree that this is not a genocide

Palestinian origins

The reason Palestine hates Israel and Jews (surprise, surprise, it’s because of Hamas)

Palestinians are taught to hate Jews

Wait until you learn that those “Palestinian hostages” are prisoners who were arrested for horrendous crimes (t/w for description of torture)

What the fuck, oh my gosh, this is awful.

Fuck Hamas and fuck the UN

Other people providing links of info

Charities:

Free the hostages

Uyghur Muslims in China

[nerdylilpeebee]

so let me get this straight, you think it’s a war and not a genocide? You CANNOT kill thousands of innocents because of some well treated hostages, Israel is a terrorist state.

from the river to the sea🍉🇵🇸

They weren't treated well. The hostages themselves testified after the fact they were not treated well.

And yes it is a war, and even if Hamas' numbers are right (incredibly unlikely) Israel takes every measure it can to avoid civilian casualties, their biggest measure via warning before they strike, something unheard of in war. And even by Hamas' most likely fake numbers, they're killing less than a third of the average deaths in war in the modern era.

And no, Gaza is literally run by terrorists. They are the elected government of Gaza. XD If any state is a terrorist state, it's Palestine.

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

By: Abraham Wyner

Published: Mar 7, 2024

The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000.” The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.” President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children.” The White House also explained that the president “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.”

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

[ The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures. ]

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0.

[ The daily number of children reported to have been killed is totally unrelated to the number of women reported. The R2 is .017 and the relationship is statistically and substantively insignificant. ]

This lack of correlation is the second circumstantial piece of evidence suggesting the numbers are not real. But there is more. The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

[ The correlation between the daily men and daily women death count is absurdly strong and negative (p-value < .0001). ]

Consider some further anomalies in the data: First, the death count reported on Oct. 29 contradicts the numbers reported on the 28th, insofar as they imply that 26 men came back to life. This can happen because of misattribution or just reporting error. There are a few other days where the numbers of men are reported to be near 0. If these were just reporting errors, then on those days where the death count for men appears to be in error, the women’s count should be typical, at least on average. But it turns out that on the three days when the men’s count is near zero, suggesting an error, the women’s count is high. In fact, the three highest daily women casualty count occurs on those three days.

[ There are three days where the male casualty count is close to 0. These three days correspond to the three highest daily women’s casualty count. ]

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

Are there better numbers? Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’ numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

The data used in the article can be found here, with thanks to Salo Aizenberg who helped check and correct these numbers.

-

Abraham Wyner is Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Faculty Co-Director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.

==

The Islamic supremacist terrorist organization lied?

Part of the rampant antisemitism is how "news" outlets simply accept Hamas' claims and parrot them back uncritically.

[angrybell]

Posted @withregram • @shayaknyc Reposted @abbasez

A world-renowned professor of Statistics & Data Science at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wyner provided a detailed analysis of the data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which showed that they had, at the very minimum, been doctored – and at worst, completely faked.

See links in bio for two articles:

“Hamas's Gaza death toll is exaggerated or faked, statistics expert claims”

- March 14th, Jerusalem Post

“How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers”

By Professor Abraham Winer, Tablet Magazine, 3/6/24 #EndJewHatred #antisemitism #stopantisemitism #jewish #jew #judaism #endantisemitism #israelunderattack #istandwithisrael #israel #israeli #selectiveoutrage #injustice #MeToo_UNless_UR_A_Jew #IsraelHamaswar #FckHms #FckHamas #JustJewIt #jewcrew

[sh0rtins0mniac]

"What can be said for certain is that Hamas-produced statistics are inconsistent, imprecise, and appear to have been systematically manipulated to downplay the number of militants killed and to exaggerate the proportion of noncombatants confirmed as dead," the report concludes. (Source: The Jerusalem Post)

Several reports worth reading if you want to understand how Hamas lies about the casulty figures.

[secular-jew]

How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers; The evidence is in their own poorly fabricated figures

By Abraham Wyner, March 6, 2024

The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000.” The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.” President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children.” The White House also explained that the president “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.”

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0.

This lack of correlation is the second circumstantial piece of evidence suggesting the numbers are not real. But there is more. The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

Consider some further anomalies in the data: First, the death count reported on Oct. 29 contradicts the numbers reported on the 28th, insofar as they imply that 26 men came back to life. This can happen because of misattribution or just reporting error. There are a few other days where the numbers of men are reported to be near 0. If these were just reporting errors, then on those days where the death count for men appears to be in error, the women’s count should be typical, at least on average. But it turns out that on the three days when the men’s count is near zero, suggesting an error, the women’s count is high. In fact, the three highest daily women casualty count occurs on those three days.

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

Are there better numbers? Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’ numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

[socialjusticefail]

This article explains why the Hamas controlled Gaza Ministry of Health is providing numbers that are likely fake.

[eretzyisrael]

Source

[sanctiphera]

Reposting Hamas propaganda doesn’t instantly make it true.

Relying on a terrorist group to provide figures on a conflict should cause some degree of suspicion over their accuracy. This hasn’t stopped media organisations and world leaders from repeating Hamas-generated figures every day since 7 October 2023.

A report released earlier, however, shows that the official civilian death toll reported by Hamas is “statistically impossible”.

The low level of male casualties reported is inconsistent with a report last month that Hamas lost 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

If 70% of casualties are women and children as Hamas has reported, then “Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.”

[narrie]

you do realize that the cited source for that list of palestinians who died is the 'gaza ministry of health' which is literally hamas? the same hamas that lied about israel attacking a hospital and 500 people dying when it really hit a parking lot and about a dozen people were killed (still a tragedy, but not the same scale at all). you know it takes weeks to identify the names of all the dead in wartime if you're doing it correctly, right? how is everyone so gullible, you hate jews that much?

u do realize how fucking dumb u sound? u do realize there's no independent verification in gaza at the moment bc israel has sealed gaza's broders? the same israel that has lied about shireen abu akleh's death, the same israel that shot unarmed palestinians in gaza in 2018 then lied about them being armed, the same israel that has changed their story about the attack on the al-ahli hospital multiple times and have offered questionable to fake "evidence" at best but just enough to muddy the water so that ppl like u will focus on that instead of the countless other hospitals, schools, churches and mosques they have bombed, and the same israel that's refusing to offer alternative numbers to palestinian casualties. apart from the fact that children are writing their names on their bodies so they can be identified later and palestinians grabbing their documents first thing in times of crisis bc they KNOW what it's like to live under constant attack, the united nations, independent international institutions and experts as well as palestinian authorities in the west bank, where hamas has NO power, all have faith in the gaza ministry's effort to account for the dead. in past "wars" their numbers have always been consistent with the un's and the us government’s annual human rights assessments frequently cite the gaza ministry. maybe ur more into this kind of statistic tho since u trust israel sm! and i would offer u links and sources for everything else i mentioned but i think it's time u do ur own research since u seem to be so gullible - or do u hate human beings, half of them children, that much? 

[tungledotedu]

[image ID: a tumblr post by nerdylilpeebee on 26 february. an anonymous ask reads: ' so let me get this straight, you think it’s a war and not a genocide? You CANNOT kill thousands of innocents because of some well treated hostages, Israel is a terrorist state. from the river to the sea🍉🇵🇸'

nerdylilpeebee's response:

'They weren't treated well. The hostages themselves testified after the fact they were not treated well.

And yes it is a war, and even if Hamas' numbers are right (incredibly unlikely) Israel takes every measure it can to avoid civilian casualties, their biggest measure via warning before they strike, something unheard of in war. And even by Hamas' most likely fake numbers, they're killing less than a third of the average deaths in war in the modern era.

And no, Gaza is literally run by terrorists. They are the elected government of Gaza. XD If any state is a terrorist state, it's Palestine.' end ID.]

link to post

and here's nerdylilpeebee defending benjamin netanyahu. literally saying 'he can't actually stop the war.'

[isorottatime]

There is no anger because it didn’t happen

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20231011-the-saint-porphyrios-orthodox-church-in-gaza-was-not-hit-by-israeli-airstrikes

anon's link

all in reference to this post

but you're right, you can't verify the images in the actual post. your video is correct in what it's debunking-- claims from oct 9-- but the church was then bombed 10 days later.

[religion-is-a-mental-illness]

Zionists are genocidal religious extremists. And you claim religion is mental illness. Seems you are more mentally ill than you think huh buddy. But i get it, it's extremely easy to believe what you believe when you're so abrasive and unpleasant that you have no one off line to discuss these things with. Hopefully your self made misery at least gives you a fake sense of purpose, otherwise you're just sitting here stewing for nothing :)

LOL. Sure, hon. How much did that new globe cost, because you're projecting. You're talking about yourself. Something is not right in the pit of your stomach, and you're projecting it onto me.

Here's what's funny. Zionism is political, not religious. It's not about making everyone Jewish, its about maintaining a political entity of Israel.

Zionism | ˈzīəˌnizəm | noun a movement for (originally) the re-establishment and (now) the development and protection of a Jewish nation in what is now Israel. It was established as a political organization in 1897 under Theodor Herzl, and was later led by Chaim Weizmann.

So, by saying this:

genocidal religious extremists

What you've accidentally done is admit that you're not talking about political Zionism, you're talking about religious Judaism. You've revealed yourself as a Nazi-grade antisemite for all the world to see.

Israel could annihilate the entire Gaza Strip, but don't. Hamas want to obliterate Israel, but can't. You haven't even figured that out yet. If there was an actual "genocide," it would have been over months ago. How monumentally dumb are you?

There is no "genocide." There is a war. They are different and you know it. A war Hamas, the Nazis Of Color (NOC), started. One you celebrated until it became clear Hamas is inevitably going to lose. It's only a matter of time.

The IDF said it was intended to enable residents to "evacuate from specific places for their safety if required." 

Residents in multiple numbered areas were sent SMS warnings on Friday, the military said.  

"The IDF will begin a crushing military attack on your area of residence with the aim of eliminating the terrorist organization Hamas," the warnings said, urging people in the sectors to seek shelter and "stay away from all military activity of every kind."

"As someone who teaches division level urban warfare, what has really blown my mind is that Israel issued maps to the civilians [in Gaza] telling them where they would be operating each day. … I've never seen a military do that," said Spencer, who visited Israel last month and toured the combat zone in and around Gaza. 

"Doing this puts the attacking military at a disadvantage because it signals to the defending military what they’re doing," he said. "The element of surprise is usually a top priority in wars, but Israel is giving up all of that in order to prevent civilian harm.

"If that is going to be the standard going forward, I don't know how the U.S. military and others are going to do that. We’re not going to send text messages. We’re not going to be able to put out maps, even if we do decide to give warnings."

What the hell kind of "genocide" involves sending text messages and distributing maps of where Israel's military initiatives will be conducted to the same people your pea-sized brain thinks they want to exterminate? Do you even comprehend how completely fucking retarded you are? Of course you can't.

Israel does everything it can to minimize civilian casualties. Hamas does everything it can to maximize civilian casualties.

The civilian to target (i.e. Hamas) casualty ratio for the Israel initiatives has been 1.5:1. In normal urban warfare, 9:1 is regarded as acceptable. A sixth of any average urban war.

Let me put that another way: if this was any other army but Israel's there should and would be six times as many civilian casualties as there have been. And it would still be regarded as an average urban war with acceptable losses. And even then it would still not qualify as a "genocide."

You have literally nothing to back up your stupid, ignorant claim. It's false. It's demonstrably false. It's factually false. It's ridiculously false.

And that's when you started pretending and lying and gaslighting and lying some more. You know it's not a genocide. You know it. You know it for a fact. You're just repeating stupid mantras because you're a shallow, mindless follower and you're afraid of what would happen if you sat down and thought for yourself. You might lose your tribe and your unwarranted moral certitude.

What you're angry about is that I tell the truth and I don't care who it upsets, while you're too cowardly to step out of line with the authoritarian tribalists you've associated yourself with. You're terrified they'll turn on you, and you're taking it out on me because I don't carry the same burden as you.

What's fascinating is that your whole "Zionist" schtick is literally the same "Jews control the world" tinfoil hat conspiracy nutcase crap as right-wing cranks have been spewing for years. The far-left and the far-right are now collaborating on their conspiracy theories, apparently, because you're completely in sync. You're regurgitating far-right talking points, yet you think you're being original and progressive.

So, let's loop back to this, because it's jaw-droppingly astonishing.

genocidal religious extremists

It's the most self-unaware thing I've heard of in months.

You want to talk genocidal religious extremists? You support literal fundamentalist religious terrorists. Actual, literal Islamic far-far-far-right, kill-and-die-for-Allah, fundamentalist terrorists. People who murder gay people and throw acid in the faces of women who do not cover properly.

https://quranx.com/Hadith/Nasai/DarusSalam/Volume-3/Book-23/Hadith-2527

It was narrated from 'Abudullah bin Hubshi Al-Khath 'ami that the Prophet was asked: "Which deed is best?" He said: "Faith in which there is no doubt, Jihad in which there is no stealing of the spoils of war, and Hjijatun Mabrurah."[1] It was said: "Which prayer is best? He said:"That in which there is ling Qunut (standing)." It was said: "Which charity is best?" He said: "The poor's night." It was said: "Which Hijrah (emigration) is best?" He said: "One who shuns (Hahara) that which Allah has forbidden." It was said: "One who strives against the idolaters with his life and his wealth. "It was said: "Which death is best?" He said: "One who sheds his blood while his horse's feet are cut with swords."

https://quranx.com/Hadith/Malik/USC-MSA/Book-21/Hadith-4

Yahya related to me from Abdullah ibn Abd ar-Rahman ibn Mamar al- Ansari that Ata ibn Yasar said that the Messenger of Allah, may Allah bless him and grant him peace, said, "Shall I tell you who has the best degree among people? A man who takes the rein of his horse to do jihad in the way of Allah."

https://quranx.com/Hadith/Muslim/USC-MSA/Book-20/Hadith-4635

It has been narrated on the authority of Anas b. Malik (through a different chain of transmitters) that the Messenger of Allah (ﷺ) said: Nobody who enters Paradise will (ever like to) return to this world even if he were offered everything on the surface of the earth (as an inducement) except the martyr who will desire to return to this world and be killed ten times for the sake of the great honour that has been bestowed upon him.

That law is shari'a. That means, no music. That means no memes, no fandoms, no art with representations of living creatures. That means one religion and one religion only: Islam. That means no history other than Islamic history. You want to leave? You die. You object? You die. You violate the tenets of Islam? You die.

Every single thing you love, they hate. Everything you are, they hate. Everything about you, they hate. They want to destroy all of it. Nothing about you is acceptable within shari'a.

Nothing. Everything about you disappears when the genocidal religious extremists of Hamas get their way.

You're an ignorant, stupid, smooth-brained lemming being used by religious fanatics who hate you and intend to murder you when they achieve Islamic supremacy.

You doubt me? Here's a Palestinian imam saying so himself.

It's absolutely astonishing how mindlessly ignorant and desperate you are to be murdered by the totalitarian fanatics for whom you work overtime as an apologist.

Imagine being a "they/them" and defending the most extreme far-right oppressive, misogynistic, homophobic, violent ideology that has ever existed, and thinking you were a moral and intellectual genius.

Do you know how women say "I do" in an Islamic marriage ceremony? That's a trick question. Their consent is not required. She's not even asked.

What happens when a woman doesn't want to have sex with her husband? Because she is obligated to do so when summoned, Allah is mad at her and she is cursed.

https://quranx.com/Hadith/Bukhari/USC-MSA/Volume-4/Book-54/Hadith-460

Narrated Abu Huraira: Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) said, "If a husband calls his wife to his bed (i.e. to have sexual relation) and she refuses and causes him to sleep in anger, the angels will curse her till morning."

https://quranx.com/23.1-6?Context=3

Certainly will the believers have succeeded: They who are during their prayer humbly submissive And who shun vain conversation, And they who are observant of zakah And they who guard their private parts Except from their wives or those their right hands possess, for indeed, they will not be blamed

"Those their right hand possess" means sex-slaves. Concubines. Women enslaved specifically for sex.

So, when you say:

genocidal religious extremists

You have literally no idea what you're talking about. You're dangerously ignorant.

They want to kill you. They intend to kill you. They hate you. They will not accept you. They regard you as an abomination. When they get their hands on you, your "pronouns" will be was/were.

That's the blunt reality.

https://quranx.com/27.55

Do you indeed approach men with desire instead of women? Rather, you are a people behaving ignorantly."

https://quranx.com/29.28

And [mention] Lot, when he said to his people, "Indeed, you commit such immorality as no one has preceded you with from among the worlds.

https://quranx.com/26.173

And We rained upon them a rain [of stones], and evil was the rain of those who were warned.

https://quranx.com/9.29

Fight against such of those who have been given the Scripture as believe not in Allah nor the Last Day, and forbid not that which Allah hath forbidden by His messenger, and follow not the Religion of Truth, until they pay the tribute readily, being brought low.

https://quranx.com/Hadith/Bukhari/USC-MSA/Volume-1/Book-8/Hadith-387

Narrated Anas bin Malik: Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) said, "I have been ordered to fight the people till they say: 'None has the right to be worshipped but Allah.' And if they say so, pray like our prayers, face our Qibla and slaughter as we slaughter, then their blood and property will be sacred to us and we will not interfere with them except legally and their reckoning will be with Allah."

Just because you hate yourself, your life and the safe, comfortable, western world you live in doesn't mean the rest of us are going to let you take us down with you.

You want to annihilate yourself? Go for it. But you won't take the rest of us along off the cliff you're determined to go flying off.

Re-examine every part of your stupid, miserable life, you utter, utter moron.

[newsource21]

The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000.” The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.” President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children.” The White House also explained that the president “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.”

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0.

This lack of correlation is the second circumstantial piece of evidence suggesting the numbers are not real. But there is more. The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

Consider some further anomalies in the data: First, the death count reported on Oct. 29 contradicts the numbers reported on the 28th, insofar as they imply that 26 men came back to life. This can happen because of misattribution or just reporting error. There are a few other days where the numbers of men are reported to be near 0. If these were just reporting errors, then on those days where the death count for men appears to be in error, the women’s count should be typical, at least on average. But it turns out that on the three days when the men’s count is near zero, suggesting an error, the women’s count is high. In fact, the three highest daily women casualty count occurs on those three days.

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

Are there better numbers? Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’ numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.