you know i think it would be absolutely hilarious if after some time Percy would get so fed up by Mr. D never calling him by his actual name so Percy would just decide to do the exact same thing to him and start calling him anything but Mr. D/Dionysus
like mr. D would be like "Hey Peter Johnson" and Percy would turn around and with a straight face be like " yes, Dave?" and everyone else is just watching horrified like wtf Percy? do you want to be turned into a cockroach????
or Percy would be talking with someone and be like " Derek told me-"
" who..?"
"you know our camp director? god of wine and all that?"
"......you mean mr. D./Dionysus "
"yeah Dylan...so anyways he told me-"
and then it would become this thing between Percy and Mr. D where they would always try to come up with the most stupid and outrageous wrong names to annoy each other as much as they possibly can
everyone is horrified at Percy and just waiting for Dionysus to smite him but Percy and Mr. D are secretely having a fucking blast
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Maddie wasn’t snooping.
She honestly wasn’t.
She really was just trying to be a good big sister and help her brother and future brother-in-law out by dropping off a package for Buck that had been sent to her house due to cheaper shipping (“why is it like twenty bucks cheaper, you live twenty minutes away”). Buck and Tommy’s place was on her daily commute to the dispatch center and it just made sense for her to take the package over to them since neither of them had the time since coming back from their weekend getaway to Vegas two weeks ago.
Both of them were on shift but she still had a house key from when she’d been watering their plants while they were gone. So it should’ve just been a quick in and out and she’d be on her way home.
And then she stopped and got the mail. See she really was just trying to be a good big sister— truly, she was. The mailman had been pulling away from the curb as she pulled up and in the spirit of being helpful she stopped by the mailbox to grab their mail.
And out of habit in grabbing her own mail she started flipping through it as she set the package down on the table in the entryway.
And that’s when she saw it.
The envelope.
The return address was a P.O. Box from Las Vegas, Nevada with it addressed to Mr. Evan Buckley and Mr. Thomas Kinard of Los Angeles, California.
And printed in big black lettering across crisp white paper, right above Buck and Tommy’s names.
REGARDING MARRIAGE DOCUMENTS
Maddie stared at it.
And then she stared at it some more.
She put the mail down in the mail bowl and blinked, scrubbed at her eyes to make sure she just didn't have something in her eye and blinked again. She picked the envelope back up and stared at it again.
Yup— still there.
MARRIAGE
She put the envelope back down and hummed for a few moments before she pulled out her phone and pulled up Buck’s name.
Maddie: Hey… when you went to Vegas, did you happen to get married?
Buck responded back almost instantly.
Buck: …
Buck: why would you think that???
Maddie quickly snapped a picture of the envelope and sent it back to him.
Buck: oh
Buck: uh… hahah surprise?
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Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
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