#nh credence

[equinoxts2]

Did I go overboard with the climbing plants before even starting the actual build? Possibly, but I'm so proud of this bit of landscaping!

This is the beginning of a lot for Kulo Sena's subhood, Credence. The crumbling, overgrown building you see in these pics is actually hood deco, converted 4t2 by lordcrumps (I think? Correct me if I'm wrong!) with Numenor's invisible walls to ensure that its new occupants don't go walking though solid stone - none of them are ghosts (yet). (Is that tempting fate?!)

Somewhere between the fall of the Empire of Chains and the arrival of the Nuidya tribe, this was a small monastic community devoted to the creatures of the nearby forest. Now it's a crash pad for five young women devoted to living it up just outside Credence proper and pushing the boundaries of what you can get up to with magic. You'll get to meet them soon! *goes back to building*

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Erin Reed at Erin In The Morning:

The anti-trans frenzy is peaking in England this week following the release of a much-anticipated review by Dr. Hillary Cass on transgender care. Many anticipated that the report would serve as a pretext to ban transgender care in England, and it appears to have been crafted to provide just such a rationale. Nations already enacting restrictive laws against transgender individuals will likely use it as justification for further discrimination. In the United States, far-right Christian nationalist groups, including Heritage Foundation (retweeted), Association of Christian Schools International, and the Alliance Defending Freedom, have cited it to support anti-trans legislation they are involved in drafting or lobbying. The Cass Review is an exercise in politics with predetermined conclusions, not science and medicine, and health authorities worldwide should reject its findings.

For those unaware of the Cass Review, and the general situation in England for transgender people, that’s understandable. Transgender people have been struggling to raise alarms there for some time after wait lists to obtain gender affirming care have ballooned in excess of 5 years, which is often prohibitive in obtaining care. After a series of political attacks on transgender people and rising anti-trans sentiment in the country, the NHS commissioned a review and tapped Dr. Hillary Cass, a pediatrician whose list of follows on social media include extremist anti-trans sources such as Transgender Trend (which argues, as is obvious, that being transgender is a “trend”), the LGB Alliance (a LGB group that believes in “dropping the T,” or transgender people), and Graham Linehan (an anti-trans activist and comedian), along with many other noted anti-trans voices. From the outset, there were concerns about her ability to conduct a study neutrally.

Over the course of the review, these concerns intensified. On one occasion, Cass met privately with medical board members selected by Governor Ron DeSantis in Florida to ban transgender care through the Florida Medical Board and appeared to collaborate via email. This only came to light during a contentious trial that revealed the board's intention to ban transgender care from the outset, prior to any review. Cass's involvement in what was essentially a predetermined strike by DeSantis against transgender people raised red flags. On another occasion, her team enlisted a researcher with a history of promoting conversion therapy as a viable option for transgender individuals to handle reviews of evidence on which the report would be based.

Now that the final report is out, it is evident that it was crafted with a predetermined conclusion in mind. The review, highly susceptible to subjectivity, disregarded the body of research on transgender care as not "high quality," a subjective judgment that cannot be trusted as politically unbiased given prior concerns. The Cass Review lends credence to claims that being transgender is "contagious" and that it can influence others around them, claims that have been debunked by dozens of medical organizations. It cites Youtube propagandists that share material from “Gays Against Groomers,” a Republican-aligned anti-transgender organization in the United States. It fearmongers that being transgender might be caused by depression, anxiety, and autism, claims that the American Psychological Association, the world's largest psychological organization, has rejected in a recent policy resolution. It asserts that rates of detransition or desistance are high, citing outdated studies from conversion therapists like Ken Zucker, who reportedly used methods such as withholding wrongly gendered toys in an attempt to "treat" transgender youth. These purportedly high rates of "detransition" or "desistance" are challenged not only by external fact checks but also data within Cass’ own review.

The review cites heavily studies that have been misleadingly used to claim that being trans may be caused by being friends with other trans people. For instance, immediately after making social contagion claims, it references a study of "2,772 adolescents" that purportedly links the question "I wish to be of the opposite sex" to "poor self-concept" and "same-sex attraction." Cass uses this to essentialy claim that many transgender individuals do not know who they are, suggesting that trans individuals may actually just be gay people influenced into being trans by being friends with other trans people—a claim without evidence, often perpetuated by those opposed to trans care. It is important to note that the study Cass cites does not concern trans people; rather, it focuses on cisgender individuals who occasionally wish they were the opposite sex for any reason, including tomboys, feminine gay boys, people experiencing sexism, and more. In that particular study, 19% of participants responded this way, a rate magnitudes higher than the often-estimated 0.5% of transgender individuals. Nevertheless, Cass includes this study as though it applies to transgender individuals, whose desire is not "occasional" but enduring.

Erin Reed's analysis on the transphobic Cass Review is spot-on.

The Cass Review, conducted by "Dr." Hilary Cass, is full of anti-trans junk science.

The report serves as a justification to further restrict trans healthcare in the United Kingdom and worldwide.

[grandmaster-anne]

Court Circular | 15th March 2023

Buckingham Palace

His Excellency Mr Aly Diallo was received in audience by The King today and presented the Letters of Recall of his predecessor and his own Letters of Credence as Ambassador from the Republic of Guinea to the Court of St James’s. Ms Marie Savane was also received by His Majesty. His Excellency Mr El Hadji Alhousseini Traore was received in audience by The King and presented the Letters of Recall of his predecessor and his own Letters of Credence as Ambassador from the Republic of Mali to the Court of St James’s. Sir Philip Barton (Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs) was present. His Majesty this afternoon visited members of the United Kingdom’s Sudanese community at Abrar House, 45 Crawford Place, London W1, and was received by His Majesty’s Lord-Lieutenant of Greater London (Sir Kenneth Olisa). Later Dr Richard Montgomery was received in audience by The King upon his appointment as British High Commissioner to the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The Rt Hon Rishi Sunak MP (Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury) subsequently had an audience of His Majesty. The Queen Consort, Honorary Member, the Jockey Club, today attended the Cheltenham Festival at Cheltenham Racecourse and was received by His Majesty’s Lord-Lieutenant of Gloucestershire (Mr Edward Gillespie).

Kensington Palace

The Princess of Wales, Joint Patron, the Royal Foundation of The Prince and Princess of Wales, this morning held an Early Years Meeting at Windsor Castle.

St James’s Palace

The Duke of Edinburgh, Patron, The Duke of Edinburgh’s Award, this morning visited Portland College, Nottingham Road, Mansfield, and was received by His Majesty’s Lord-Lieutenant of Nottinghamshire (Sir John Peace).

St James’s Palace

The Princess Royal, Colonel-in-Chief, Intelligence Corps, this morning visited Government Communications Headquarters, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire. Her Royal Highness this afternoon opened Dransfield Properties Limited’s Number 1 King Street Five Valleys Medical Centre, NHS Facilities and Library Services, King Street, Stroud, and was received by Mr Roger Deeks (Vice Lord-Lieutenant of Gloucestershire). The Princess Royal, accompanied by Vice Admiral Sir Tim Laurence, this evening attended the Gloucestershire and District Agricultural Valuers Association’s Centenary Dinner at the Royal Agricultural University, Tetbury Road, Cirencester, and was received by Mrs Jane Jenner-Fust (Deputy Lieutenant of Gloucestershire).

Kensington Palace

The Duke of Gloucester, Vice President, Lepra, this morning received Mrs Suzanne McCarthy (Chairman of Trustees) and Mr James Innes (Chief Executive).

St James’s Palace

The Duke of Kent, Grand Master, United Grand Lodge of England, this afternoon attended a Rulers’ Luncheon at Freemasons’ Hall, 60 Great Queen Street, London WC2.

[sab-cat]

Understandably, many in the ADHD community feel that giving credence to any suggestions of an overdiagnosis problem within the private sector fuels the cynicism that has plagued this condition for decades. Since the documentary aired, I have heard from people concerned that GPs could now be more likely to question legitimate diagnoses. Others are questioning whether their own diagnosis is trustworthy. But as an NHS psychiatrist it is clear to me that the root of this issue is not overdiagnosis. Instead, we are facing the combined challenges of remedying decades of underdiagnosis and NHS services that were set up when there was little awareness of ADHD.

At my service in Leeds, more than 3,000 patients are waiting to be seen. Those at the top of the list were referred in December 2020. Those at the bottom will face a wait of several more years. In some parts of the country, patients are waiting between five and 10 years. For clinicians, the long waiting list is a constant pressure to cut corners that we must resist to ensure we continue to offer safe and effective care. As NHS waiting lists grow, more and more private providers are opening their doors to meet demand – and as the private landscape grows it becomes more difficult for regulators to scrutinise....

ADHD is not becoming more prevalent and the fact that we are playing catch-up does not equate to an exponential increase. A tiny fraction of people in the UK take stimulant medication, the gold standard treatment – far fewer than the 2-4% of the adult population whom we know are likely to have the condition. For people who truly have ADHD, it’s not a case of pulling up your socks – symptoms are present in multiple domains across a person’s life and can cause them major problems. In my clinic, I see people who are unable to hold down a job or relationship, but I also see patients who mask their symptoms expertly, including for example a female GP I recently saw who was able to function at work, but crashed as soon as she got home. Other high-functioning patients may appear to be managing well on the surface, but then have a breakdown because the cost to that individual of functioning well is so extremely high, which underlines how complex ADHD can be to identify and the need for expert assessment and care. There are human and financial costs to not treating this condition effectively. We urgently need to improve ADHD services.

[pie-bean]

I celebrated Static today! He used to live on Toe Bean but now he lives on my friend @credencecrossing 's island 💜

[r6shippingdelivery]

Okay, some theorising based on Wolfguard’s trailer + leaks/spoilers about Y7S3 that I’ve seen:

So Wolfguard is going to rescue an architect that is being held hostage. Apparently this guy designed Nighthaven’s base, and they want the schematics of it, to “find how Nighthaven was involved in Yahata’s death.”

We know the next map coming out (it was supposed to come on Y7S3, but it has been delayed to Y7S4) was set in Singapore, where NH’s base is, which lends more credence to the theory that this map would be NH’s base (or related to it). I especulated that season’s plot would be centered around Rainbow spying or breaking into NH’s base, probably centered around Cav’s team and the new operator. However, most leaks seems to point at Y7S3′s new op being another NH dude goddd why eww, we have more than enough NH already ffs! But I still haven’t lost hope this infiltration/intel gathering mission might happen (and that we’ll finally get some screen time to some ops that aren’t the same as always, cause except for Cav and Mozzie, the ops in that team didn’t get much attention in general).

[basket-of-loquats]

mdzs/cql as warriors part 2!!! (here’s part 1)

I updated the google doc a bit too (mostly plot stuff) if you wanna check it out: x

Design notes below the cut

nhs:

diluted tortie because nhs is a dark tortie and nhs is like, his brother but more Chill

he chubby!!

the floppy ear doesn’t really have any reason behind it except CUTE

yes he has a heart on his shoulder, yes everything about this design was making him as a loveable and harmless-looking as possible

yes he could still murder you

jyl:

she’s very very soft like jiang cheng

body-type wise, she actually looks similar to Ghostwhistle, which lent credence to the theory that Ghostwhistle was actually Maplestar’s son for some time, but as she got older they started looking more dissimilar

her eyes are closed in the pic but i think she would probably have really soft blue eyes

jzx:

cats can’t *really* be yellow/golden, but i gave him a pretty rich ginger coat to make it look that way. in sunlight especially i think it looks really gold

his nose shape is the same as jgy’s

he is very slightly pointed (darker colors around face, tail, legs) like jgy

tufted ears like his father, but otherwise doesn’t take after his dad in body type too much

wn:

he Buff

literally just a gentle giant

used to be scarless, because he was a med cat, but after the war and his death he became heavily scarred

wq:

there’s no *actual* reason that I gave her a short tail, I just wanted to because it looked cute. maybe her father had one and she inherited it? but it was cut off when she was young somehow? who knows

nick in her ear is rare for a med cat, but she trained as a warrior apprentice before she became a med cat so she got it then

has a white stripe on her nose matching her brother’s

[silverynight]

AUmodern where newt meets NH for the first time at a party with Queenie, Credence and Tina, do they play truth or challenge or who do you kiss, marry and kill?

Albus and Gellert find themselves attracted to Newt as soon as they meet him at Queenie's party, unfortunately they realize they're not the only ones.

At first they spend their time glaring at the other two because they don't want to share, but after a couple of minutes in which Theseus turns into his overprotective brother mode, Gellert realizes (after Queenie mentions it'd be fun to play truth or dare) that they can actually help each other.

So they all get in a circle and they manage to move the bottle so they can dare each other to kiss Newt.

Tina starts suspecting something's going on after Gellert dares Albus to kiss Newt on the lips (just right after Albus asked him to do the same).

Newt's face turns completely red after the third kiss, Tina has to cover Credence's eyes at the fourth because Percival's kiss was a little bit too intense.

"I think there's something wrong with the bottle," Newt mumbles, lips pink and soft because of all the times he's been kissed.

"Don't worry about it, Newt. Let's just keep playing," Theseus tells him and even though Newt's confused the truth is that he kind of likes the game.

***

Kofi / Patreon

[biomedmillie]

Debunking health-related IG posts

Post One:

The whole portrayal of this image is wrong; the body is efficient at ‘cleansing’ by itself. The liver is the body’s detoxification system and as such any product or food claiming to ‘detoxify’ or cleanse your system is unfortunately exaggerating its abilities. The symptoms the image is describing are common for those with a generally unhealthy diet, whilst some have no scientific backing whatsoever. 

The sugar cravings are most likely attributed to high sugar and low-fibre foods that are not slow-release, whilst belly fat is due to an overconsumption of calories (all adipose tissue acts as stores for excess sugar). 

Bloating and gas can come from a diet with little fruit and veg- this means low dietary fibre as well as poor gut flora which help absorb nutrients from food, causing gut problems.

There is no scientifically proven link between diet and skin condition (although if a certain diet or avoidance of foods work for you, stick with it!).

Low energy, again a claim from eating fast-release carbohydrates.

Overly sugary foods and liquids can cause bad breath (NHS, 2019).

Constipation is again due to a low fibre diet; insoluble carbohydrates such as cellulose act as roughage which aid peristalsis (rhythmic contraction of the gut).

Certain energy restrictive diets can improve cognitive function, but no paper I could find linked diet with mood (Brinkworth, Buckley, Noakes et al).

Post Two:

Again, another mysterious claim of ‘detox’. This one comes from a specific chemical in apples, mainly Phlorizidin. This is a drug that helps lower blood sugar concentrations and was previously considered as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes (the drug, not a diet of apples). However, this drug is inefficient at lowering blood sugar and better alternatives have been found.

There seems to be a common belief in pseudo-science that bile lets the liver excrete toxic or ‘bad’ substances; in all my studies there is no literature to support this, bile aids in digestion and is an alkaline mixture rich in bicarbonate ions to neutralise acidic chyme once it enters the duodenum. All excretion is facilitated by the kidneys, which essentially act as a filter for the blood.

Post Three:

There is some credence for celery juice’s ability to boost your immune system’s function due to its rich source of vitamins, particularly vitamin C which supports your immune by increasing the cellular processes of the cells that run it (Carr, Magini, 2017), but to say it removes ‘viral waste’ is ridiculous to say the least. Despite viral waste not even being a legitimate medical term, viral debris from destroyed cells will be removed by phagocytosis; white blood cells (phagocytes) engulf the cell, destroy it and absorb the remains.

Furthermore, common viruses such as the Flu are Pyro viruses, meaning they increase your body’s temperature. This is because your hypothalamus increases its ‘set point’ (the core body temperature) to kill the virus off. There is no scientific evidence to significantly suggest that celery juice aids this.

All in all this post is incredibly misleading.

Post Four:

The literature on this is extremely mixed, with some studies reporting inconclusive results and others reporting effects in contextual memories. All studies agree certain odours activate specific context-dependent memories (meaning there is no inclination to suggest that just because you’ve been sniffing rosemary you’re going to remember Avagadro’s number). All in all, there’s not enough scientific literature to draw a conclusion, and I have no clue where the author got their “75%” from.

I’ll reference a prominent paper on this below, but again this post is extremely misleading (Ball, Shoker, Miles. 2010).

Conclusion:

In summary, take IG posts with a pinch of salt! Medical facts are stretched or even falsified to create a satiating quote that we all wish to believe, of which the avid science student will often roll their eyes and scoff at. Before changing your diet and lifestyle, always consult a healthcare professional before doing so.

Note: If any information is factually incorrect please privately inform me with some scientific support and I will always correct my work- we could all learn a little more! However I do fact check to the best of my ability using accredited journals and studies published by the scientific community. I will not be naming the authors; my intent is to shame no one, but to inform the general public about evidence-driven science.

References:

Brinkworth GD, Buckley JD, Noakes M, Clifton PM, Wilson CJ. (2009) Long-term Effects of a Very Low-Carbohydrate Diet and a Low-Fat Diet on Mood and Cognitive Function. Arch Intern Med. 169(20):1873–1880

Ball, L.J. Shoker, J. Miles, N.V. (2010) Odour‐based context reinstatement effects with indirect measures of memory: The curious case of rosemary. British Journal of Psychology. 101 (4).

Carr, A.C. Magini, S. (2017) Vitamin C and Immune Function. Nutrients. 3;9 (11).

NHS, (2019). Bad Breath. [online] Available from: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/Bad-breath/ [30/12/2019]

[crossdreamers]

Anette Pryce gives a good overview of the main arguments against TERFs and other transphobic activists in these articles:

The Transgender Trend Resource Pack for Schools is the latest and most substantive attempt by the TT founder to promote an agenda which attempts to discredit the experience of transgender children as a ‘trend’. While we would prefer to ignore this document, rather than risk giving it underserved credence simply through its discussion, the document has already been widely distributed, and has found its way into schools. This document has already had a negative impact on children and families with transgender and gender-diverse children and we fear that if left unchecked, this will be magnified.

In October 2017, a wide range of organisations in the UK, including NHS England, NHS Scotland, the British Psychoanalytic Council, the UK Council for Psychotherapy, the Royal College of General Practitioners amongst others, signed up to Memorandum of Understanding on Conversion Therapy in the UK (Version 2).

Pryce goes through the document here and explains why it is a misguided and hateful attempt at denying transgender youth their identity.

Part 2 here.

Part 3 here.

[equinoxts2]

Exterior of Moli and Alexander’s home. I built it yesterday and I’m so pleased with it! The couple have a breeding pair of cattle, a butter churn, a herb garden and a telescope out here, as well as a beautiful view of the Credence lighthouse. The back door also has a traditional Nuidya guardian cat statue to watch over the garden, a nod to Moli’s Kulo Seeri origins.

[johnricky20]

Potential Role of Honey in Learning and Memory

Nutritional advantages and therapeutic promises are correlated with the use of natural honey (NH) as a nutraceutical agent. NH is widely embraced, both ancient and modern, by all generations, customs, and societies as food and medicine. The nutritional profiles documented in various literature, including their use in feeding infants and children, as well as health indices and biomarkers found by various researchers, are illustrated in this manuscript. Quality foods.

Folk medicine, experiments with animal models, and orthodox medical methods illustrated by clinical trials are recorded in the study. It contains almost all human organs and body systems extensively examined by numerous workers. The causes and adverse effects of NH emissions are known, as are the preventive approaches. Quality foods ad.

This could facilitate the availability for domestic consumption and the foreign market of residue-free honey and a wholesome natural product. This may also help to avoid NH poisoning-related health problems. In addition, apicultural activities and honey's economic significance are well known. This study also contains information on a relatively unknown and rare species of stingless bees from South America. We concluded this analysis by defining significant roles in the creation of stingless bees for ethno-entomologists, other scientists, and apiculturists to increase honey production, consumption, and economic earnings. Quality foods weekly ad.

Visit

Since time immemorial, the use of natural honey by mankind as food and medicine has existed. In fact, it is recorded that the most ancient sweetener is raw honey, and it was noted that it was in use around the world several million years ago. Natural honey (NH) is a high nutritional value, sweet, and flavourful liquid food, with tremendous health benefits. By secreting nectars of flowers, NH is produced by honey-bees as blossom honey, and honeydew honey (forest honey) by secreting the exudates of insects sucking plants (Aphids). NH is generally recognized by all ages, and its usage transcends the boundaries of race and community. Both religious and cultural traditions also support and embrace the use of honey. Quality foods.

Food is consumed for food, metabolic activities, production, and healthy living. All those advantages are provided by the daily consumption of natural honey. Currently, as shown in Tables 1-3, honey is a full meal. It contains major metal components and micronutrients that facilitate the digestion and absorption of these major dietary components, as well as those necessary for body functions and metabolism. In two separate experiments at various laboratories in Nigeria and South Africa, our rats fed blossom honey reported increased body weight gain.

Chepulis and Starkey fed honeydew honey for 52 weeks to 8-week-old rats in 2008 to determine weight gain. These workers demonstrate that the growth effect of honey in rodents is due in part to increased bone growth and mineralization, possibly due to honey's calcium content. This linear growth effect of honey has been supported by our unpublished data from very recent research on NH supplemented rats. Molan (2001) confirmed the growth-stimulating property of honey in his comprehensive literature review[18]. From his histological research on wounds, he claims that stimulation of cell growth by honey also improves the properties of NH healing. Maximum quality foods.

Click

There is historical evidence that some practices and beliefs support the feeding of honey to freshly born babies. It is now a proven reality that feeding infants with honey can enhance memory and development, decrease anxiety, and increase the performance of children in later life. In their New Zealand animal behavioral research in 2009, Chepulis and co-workers gave scientific credence to this beneficial practice. They fed 8-week-old rats with a diet supplemented with either honeydew honey or sucrose and a sugar-free diet control group (all diets patterned according to the standard human diet in New Zealand). Over the twelve-month trial period, these workers noted improved spatial memory and decreased anxiety in the honey-fed rodents better than the other classes. Quality foods market.

The authors concluded that early honey diet adoption is advantageous and can enhance memory loss and aging-related cognitive decline. The use of honey in human infant nutrition has also revealed some important and beneficial outcomes. Ramenghi and others studied the palatability of honey for infants in 2001, and these workers reported that honey was well tolerated and that the crying phases of infants compared to sterile water were significantly reduced. Quality foods hours.

In a study on the importance of honey compared with sucrose in child feeding, honey fed infants were found to have enhanced hematological profiles and calcium absorption, no digestive problems, lighter and thinner urine, improved skin tone, less susceptibility to disease, and steady weight gain. These beneficial effects produced by NH when used in infant formula are attributable to its effects, including the digestion process, on gastrointestinal function enhancement. A possible cause is the impact of the carbohydrate constituents, NH oligosaccharides, on the intestinal flora of these children. Quality foods.

The ingestion of honey as food and medicine resulted in high therapeutic promise and nutritional gain. Botanical origin plays a prominent role in the bioavailability of phytochemical compounds of NH, and therefore has an effect on honey 's biological operation.

Welcome

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

There’s been so much news going on that I nearly forgot about the existence of a Supreme Court vacancy when participating in a virtual conference this morning. And in some ways, the news makes life hard for us polling analysts. We have had, in rapid succession: the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a series of threats by President Trump in which he refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power, the announcement of Trump’s intention to nominate Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ginsburg, the release of substantial information about the president’s tax returns by the New York Times, the first presidential debate, the news of Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis and subsequent hospitalization — along with a cluster of other cases at the White House — and now his plans to leave Walter Reed Medical Center later today.

With that said, the debate provides a clear enough line in the sand — with many pollsters planning releases just prior to or just after the debate — that it’s worth doing a before-and-after comparison of the polls.1 One way to discern this is via our national polling average, where Biden’s lead has inched up to 8.1 points from 7.1 points before the debate:

Another way to see this is by comparing post-debate polls to the last, pre-debate version of both national polls and polls of the same states by the same polling firms. That’s what I’ve done in the table below, covering the 11 national polls and 11 state polls that have been released since the debate. And on average, Biden gained 1.5 percentage points from the pre-debate to the post-debate versions of these polls.

Biden’s gained some ground since the debate

Change in Joe Biden’s margin in each pollster’s post-debate poll compared to their latest, pre-debate version, at the state and national level

Pre-debate poll Post-debate poll Pollster End date Biden lead or deficit end date Biden lead or deficit Diff. AZ NYT/Siena 9/15 +9.0 10/3 +8.0 -1.0 FL NYT/Siena 6/18 +6.0 10/1 +5.0 -1.0 GA Landmark Communications 8/31 -7.0 9/30 +2.0 +9.0 MI Public Policy Polling 8/29 +4.0 10/1 +6.0 +2.0 MO Remington 9/17 -8.0 10/1 -5.0 +3.0 NH Emerson College 11/26/19 +4.0 10/2 +8.0 +4.0 OH Trafalgar Group 10/3 -4.0 OH YouGov 7/24 -1.0 10/2 +0.0 +1.0 PA YouGov 9/21 +4.0 10/2 +7.0 +3.0 PA NYT/Siena 9/27 +9.0 10/2 +7.0 -2.0 US YouGov 9/23 +5.0 10/3 +8.0 +3.0 US YouGov 9/23 +5.0 10/2 +8.0 +3.0 US NBC/WSJ 9/16 +8.0 10/1 +14.0 +6.0 US John Zogby Strategies 8/29 +4.5 10/2 +2.0 -2.5 US IBD/TIPP 9/19 +6.0 10/1 +3.0 -3.0 US HarrisX 9/25 +5.0 10/1 +7.0 +2.0 US Data for Progress 9/15 +11.0 10/1 +10.0 -1.0 US Ipsos 9/29 +9.0 10/1 +9.0 +0.0 US Ipsos 9/29 +9.0 10/3 +10.0 +1.0 US Change Research 9/20 +9.0 9/30 +13.0 +4.0 US Morning Consult 9/29 +8.0 10/4 +9.0 +1.0

Trafalgar Group has not previously polled Ohio, so no comparison is available. For the John Zogby Strategies polls, versions with and without third-party candidates are averaged together. The previous NYT/Siena poll in Florida and the Emerson College poll in New Hampshire was conducted among registered voters, while the post-debate polls were conducted among likely voters.

In some cases, the pre-debate poll was conducted months before the debate. But even if we only focus on the polls that released results at some point in September, the top line is similar: Biden’s gain is 1.4 percentage points, on average. And for what it’s worth, a swing of 1 or 2 points toward Biden is consistent with the effects that first debates have had for challengers in the past — although we should note that sometimes a debate bounce fades after a couple of weeks.

These averages, of course, conceal a lot of variation within individual polls; depending on which poll you look at, Biden’s national lead is as large as 14 points (in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll) or as small as 2 points (in a John Zogby Strategies poll). I’ll admit to finding the NBC/WSJ poll intriguing, as it’s the only live-caller national poll we have since the debate, and NBC/WSJ polls tend to stick pretty close to our polling averages. Still, averaging the polls is the right strategy in the long run.

Because so many polls have recently been released, you’re going to have a few eccentricities. Remember, an 800-person poll nominally has a 3.5-point margin of error. However, that margin pertains only to one candidate’s vote share; in a two-candidate race, the margin of error on the difference between the candidates will be roughly twice that then, or 7 points in this case. That means, if Biden is truly ahead by 8 points, it should be fairly routine to get everything from a 15-point Biden lead to a 1-point lead. And keep in mind that with a confidence interval of 95 percent, the margin of error only covers 95 percent of polls; 1 in 20 polls should fall outside that range. (At least in theory; in practice, pollsters are often reluctant to publish polls that appear to be large outliers.)

It’s harder to tell, though, what effect the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis may have had on the race. YouGov conducted polls right before and after the news and found Biden ahead by 8 points in both. Morning Consult shows Biden having gained 1 point over the past few days. And Ipsos had Biden ahead by 10 points in a poll conducted after the news of Trump’s diagnosis broke, compared to Biden’s 9-point advantage in a poll conducted after the debate but before the president’s diagnosis. The John Zogby Strategies poll that showed Biden ahead by only 2 points nationally was also conducted after the COVID-19 news, although that’s not a pollster I’d give a lot of credence to.

The series of state polls by the New York Times and Siena College are also worth mentioning here, since they’re the only live-caller polls in the mix apart from the NBC/WSJ one — and since they were conducted partly after Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. And these contain strong results for Biden, showing him with leads of 8 points in Arizona, 7 points in Pennsylvania and 5 points in Florida– above his polling averages in each state. However, they’re still smaller leads than what previous NYT/Siena polls of those states found — Biden led by 9 points in their Arizona poll in September, for instance.

This raises an interesting question: Should you focus more on how a poll compares to a pollster’s previous poll or how it compares to other polls in that state? There isn’t really a right answer here, it’s a mix of both. But to explain how our model views this, in the case of the September Arizona poll, a 9-point lead had been a particularly strong result for Biden to the point of being a mild outlier. So the most recent NYT/Siena poll counted as a good result for him on balance, as it confirmed he has a clear lead there now, and he gained ground in our Arizona polling average.

Finally, keep in mind that the reason it’s still so hard to understand the effects of the president’s COVID-19 diagnosis is because it is an evolving story. It’s not just his prognosis, which can vary from day to day under the coronavirus, but also the news about the cluster of cases at the White House and the lack of reliable information about his condition. So if the public wasn’t initially sympathetic to Trump — and they mostly weren’t, in part because a large majority of the public thinks Trump didn’t take appropriate precautions — everything we’ve learned since then probably isn’t going to make public sentiment better for him.

With all that said, the situation remains unpredictable. This year, of course, unpredictable news events haven’t always had a large effect on the polls.

[kathleenseiber]

Most deprived areas of England get most benzo prescriptions

The highest number of prescriptions for benzodiazepines and Z-drugs to treat anxiety, alcohol withdrawal, and sleep problems go to people who live in the most deprived areas in England, a new study shows.

Doctors often prescribe this group of drugs as sedation, but usually for only for a short period of time to get a patient past an initial period of need.

For a new study in Family Practice, researchers analyzed the rate of prescribing of these drugs in general practitioner (GP) practices in England in 2017, and compared this to the estimated level of socioeconomic deprivation for each of these practices.

Study findings include:

A clear association between benzodiazepine and Z-drug prescribing in GP practices and socioeconomic deprivation, with more prescribing in practices that had patients from more deprived areas. The association persisted even after accounting for the age and sex demographic differences between patients.

In 2017, doctors in England wrote more than 14 million prescriptions for benzodiazepines and Z-drugs, totaling the equivalent of more than 2 billion milligrams of diazepam.

A large geographical variation in England, with a tendency for higher prescribing rates in coastal regions, which an older demographic in those regions may explain.

Researchers used prescribing data from GP practices in England from NHS Digital for the year 2017 and compared this with practice-level Index of Multiple Deprivation scores from Public Health England and demographics for each practice from NHS Digital.

The Index of Multiple Deprivation score is an overall measure of deprivation experienced by people living in a certain area, and considers seven dimensions: income deprivation, employment deprivation, health deprivation and disability, education; skills and training deprivation, barriers to housing and services, and living environment deprivation and crime.

Why so many benzodiazepines?

The rate of prescribing of benzodiazepines and Z-drugs was on average significantly (45%) higher in the most deprived GP practice populations compared to the least deprived (288 prescriptions per 1,000 patients versus 198 prescriptions per 1,000 patients in 2017).

“The key result we found was there was an association between the amount of benzodiazepines prescribed in GP practices and the level of deprivation of people served by that practice,” says lead author Saran Shantikumar of the University of Warwick Medical School.

“However, this is a very broad association. What we can’t tell from our analysis is which people within a given practice are getting those prescriptions. In fact, a recent report from Public Health England suggested that, if anything, individual patients from the least deprived practices were more likely to be prescribed these drugs.

“So we’re left with a conundrum: if fewer patients from the most deprived practices are being prescribed benzodiazepines, why do they tend to be prescribed higher volumes of them?

“One possibility is that the reasons for prescribing are systematically different between practices with high or low deprivation, and that those in more deprived practices are more likely to be given repeat prescriptions. Our finding that the relationship between deprivation and prescribing varied with different benzodiazepines lends some credence to that hypothesis.

“What clinicians can do is be aware that they may have patients who have been on these tablets for a long time and are potentially at risk, so it is worth actively thinking about whether a patient needs to continue taking those tablets or if there are alternative strategies.”

Dependency and addiction

It is estimated that around 300,000 people in the UK are on long-term prescriptions for benzodiazepines or Z-drugs, and a recent report from Public Health England found that 1.4 million people in England received a benzodiazepine prescription last year.

Often, those who receive them as sleeping tablets are older people, but those who receive them for anxiety or alcohol control could be any age. Further, doctors occasionally prescribe them for acute back pain in younger people.

Problems develop when patients take them for a longer period of time; specifically dependency and addiction. They can also cause adverse effects. Benzodiazepines have been associated with an increased risk of falls, traffic accidents due to an impaired ability to drive, accidental overdose, impaired cognition, and dementia. These effects are particularly marked in older people, researchers say.

“It is hard to quantify how much of a problem benzodiazepine addiction is because it’s not well publicized,” Shantikumar says.

The recent PHE report has confirmed that lots of people are taking benzodiazepines, a small number of whom have been prescribed them for some time. From my experience and others in clinical practice we know that there are people who have been taking these drugs for a long time who are struggling to get off them. Often people think that developing addiction to tablets is a silent problem, but due to the side effects it can manifest as physical problems for individuals themselves and to others.

“Ultimately, we’d like to specifically identify the individual and GP practice characteristics which may be the driving factors behind long-term benzodiazepine use. Ideally, GPs would be supported to identify long-term users systematically and to provide alternative management options to reduce their risk of side-effects and dependence.

“I would encourage anyone affected by, or concerned about, medication dependence to see their GP who can help discuss the problem and consider alternative treatments.”

Source: University of Warwick

The post Most deprived areas of England get most benzo prescriptions appeared first on Futurity.

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[silverynight]

Being locked up made me imagine this, how about all NH are working men, busy, with children and divorced, and they are friends, of course. To spend time with their children they are taken to a trapeze, trampoline, clown and animal show. Among all the trapeze artists one of them draws the attention of the 4, red hair, flirtatious smile and lots of energy. can we have something like that please? 🥺

Percival doesn't like his bosses (Albus and Gellert) and he'd never want to spend more time with them than necessary, but the animal show with trapeze artists sounds like something his little Credence would enjoy.

Besides, his boy actually likes Albus and Gellert's girl, Nanna. They're both 6 so they usually get along quite well despite the fact that Graves doesn't like Nanna's parents.

The more he finds out about the show, the more impressed he is with it; it seems they have a shelter as well and let some of the animals have some fun during the show.

They meet the owner, Theseus Scamander, before it starts and they all listen as he explains that the man in charge of the animals is his brother, Newt, who's also a trapeze artist.

Gellert is not that impressed, but Nanna seems to be having fun, which is all that matters. However, when the show starts and the trapeze artists appear, Gellert hears Albus gasp and that's when he sees him.

He's a trapeze artist with reddish hair, beautiful smile, a pink bodysuit and long legs covered with freckles. He's absolutely stunning and he seems to float above them with so much elegance and grace Gellert can't stop staring at him.

"I think Nanna needs a Mummy," he tells Albus and his husband nods, completely mesmerized by the redhead.

The man gets down the floor and starts petting and encouraging the animals to move around. He jumps on a young elephant that seems to adore the redhead.

"He must be Scamander's brother," Albus concludes, which means it's going to be difficult to woo him, considering how possessive the owner of the show looked when he mentioned him.

Percival, Albus and Gellert stay after the show ends with their kids and even though Theseus refuses to let them meet his brother, the man approaches with his elephant anyway.

"Little one, you should rest, you must be tired," Theseus tries to make him leave, but his brother shakes his head.

"I'm fine. Besides, Lilly wanted to meet these two," he mumbles, looking at Credence and Nanna who just keep beaming at both Newt and the elephant.

When the children are distracted, Percival takes a step closer and almost stumbles in front of the trapeze artist.

"I'm Percival Graves and I'm divorced," he blurts out, which is not exactly what he wanted to say, at least not like that.

"I'm sorry to hear that, Percival. My name is Newt."

"No, it's okay–I mean, it was... mutual. I'm ready to have another relationship..." It's getting worse and his face is bright red now, but at least it makes Newt chuckle.

"I'm Albus and this is my husband, Gellert," the man cuts Graves off, caressing Newt's face.

"And we're looking for a lovely Mummy to our little–"

"I think that's enough," Theseus takes a step closer, so neither of them can see Newt. "We have things to do."

"Thanks for coming!" Newt says over his brother's shoulder, completely oblivious to what happened. "The money we make here goes directly to the shelter. I hope you can come back soon and bring some friends!"

Well... It seems the three men will have to go back next week... Whether Theseus likes it or not.

***

Kofi / Patreon

[shanujey82-blog]

IVF Cost in Kerala | Credence Hospital | ElaWoman

IVF is a sort of fertility treatment where preparation happens outside of the body. It's appropriate for individuals with an extensive variety of fertility issues and is a standout amongst the most usually utilized and fruitful medications accessible for some individuals. This page will acquaint you with how IVF functions, the dangers and current achievement rates.

What is IVF?

IVF Cost in Kerala, is a typical treatment for individuals who can't consider normally. It includes gathering a lady's eggs and preparing them physically with sperm in the lab. On the off chance that preparation is fruitful, the fetus is permitted to produce for somewhere in the range of two and six days and is then exchanged back to the lady's womb to ideally proceed to an effective birth.

Frequently a few incipient organisms will be made through treating the eggs. In these cases it's regularly best practice to solidify the rest of the incipient organisms instead of having two fetuses set back in the womb, as this builds your possibility of having twins or triplets. You would then be able to utilize your solidified developing lives later on if your first cycle is unsuccessful or you need to strive for another child.

Credence Hospital

Confidence Hospital, began as one of the greatest places for Assisted Reproduction in South India in 2001, gave quality therapeutic care and enrolled achievement rates at standard with universal guidelines, and advanced throughout the years into South India's first thorough multispecialty doctor's facility for ladies. The great care given by the healing facility has pulled in individuals from Kerala, as well as patients from different states and countries to Credence throughout the years.

In January 2006, Credence Hospital extended and relaunched itself as a superspecialty Women's Health Institute and Research Center. Assurance Hospital takes pride in being the main selective and far reaching multispecialty Women's Health doctor's facility in South India, offering a whole array of human services and partnered administrations.

The idea of a clinic devoted to ladies, is independent from anyone else one of a kind and an extraordinary advance forward in social insurance conveyance hone. As opposed to the famous observation that a ladies' clinic can just give maternity administrations, Credence Hospital gives the beginning to end of medicinal services to ladies. Appropriate from essential claims to fame, for example, Internal Medicine, Obstetrics and Gynecology and General Surgery, to fortes, for example, Plastic Surgery, Gastroenterology, Neurology, Orthopedics, ENT, Cardiology, Dermatology, Psychiatry, Ophthalmology, Physiotherapy, Pediatrics, Urology and Radiology, the clinic additionally has super-strength offices like Neonatology, Genetics, Reproductive Medicine, Advanced Endoscopy and Fetal Medicine. The doctor's facility, likewise, gives ideas, for example, Intra-uterine fetal treatment, line blood saving money and propelled hereditary qualities, administrations which were up to this point inaccessible in Trivandrum.

Vijayalakshmi Medical Centre

Vijayalakshmi Medical Center is a multi-claim to fame healing center situated in Kochi, Kerala, and is had practical experience in Infertility, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Pediatrics, Neonatology, Breast Onco-Surgery and ENT medical procedure.

The healing center is going by Dr. Vijayalakshmi G Pillai, who has more than 25 long stretches of clinical involvement in Kuwait, the UK and Belgium, among different nations. In the year 2007, Dr. Vijayalakshmi chose to come back to the place where she grew up, Kochi, and practice here. She traversed the state and was frustrated by the absence of good quality, sterile and efficient wellbeing focuses, where ladies could go for agreeable and consoling treatment, even without being joined by men.

Furthermore, accordingly, the possibility of Kerala's first lady well disposed wellbeing focus was conceived and Vijayalakshmi Medical Center was built up in 2010. World class offices and conventional Indian empathy and accommodation combine to give the best in ladies and tyke medicinal services in the state.

Dr. Vijayas Infertility Centre

The Vijaya Fertility IVF and Endoscopy focus (Vijaya Institute of Medical Sciences) established by Dr.N.P. Vijayalakshmy, MD, DGO, and FASRM; has the qualification of accomplishing the primary Test tube child of Kerala state, in May 1997. Youngsters from IVF, without precedent for Kerala, were conceived in 1997 considered in 1996 from this inside. Dr. N. P. Vijayalakshmy, M. D, D. G. O, FASRM is the central ART expert of the middle. She began this middle smallly, conveyed it up to the present stature, where she offers the world class administration to her fruitless patients.

The main fertility focus to effectively actualize IVF (TEST TUBE BABY) and other ART benefit (diagnosing and relieving by performing IVF, ICSI, PESA and TESA/ICSI/ET) in Kerala has been operational since 1996 at Kadavanthra, Ernakulam.

So significantly more than a huge number of live children (from IVF/ICSI) have been conceived from this inside and there are a few on-going pregnancies.

This middle is among the initial couple of focuses in India to effectively setup and accomplishes pregnancies utilizing the ICSI method.

This middle has till today did in excess of 6000 treatment cycles of IVF and ICSI, with a high achievement rate of 40-half. Additionally, in excess of 7000 intrauterine insemination cycles have been completed. This middle can gladly flaunt having a high bring home child rate of 28 to 30%, similar to any of the best focuses on the planet.

Vijaya Fertility IVF and Endoscopy Center, likewise, has a similarly dynamic Endoscopy focus and has, up until this point, did in excess of 4600 Endoscopic systems.

Dr. N. P. Vijayalakshmy began this inside smallly, conveyed it up to the present stature, where she offers the world class administration to her fruitless patients. She has gotten honors both from inside and outside the nation. She has confidence in collaboration and gives infertility treatment in moderate cost.

Craft Hospital and Research Centre

SPREADING SMILES OF CONTENT : CRAFT is an authority Fertility research and treatment focus that houses a group of master and expert specialists who are committed to the reason for helping couples battle and conquer fertility administration issues. With the most exceptional and completely fledged bureaus of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Infertility, Embryology, Medical Genetics and PGD, Pediatrics, Fetal Medicine, Laparoscopic Surgery, Neonatology (level 4), Urology, Pediatric Surgery, Diagnostic Imaging, CRAFT is very much furnished and independent with an extensive variety of the most recent indicative and restorative hardware and offers the best of Faculty and offices and treatment under a similar rooftop. Encouraging flawless conclusion and restorative arrangements CRAFT has understood the fantasies of couples from all around the globe

We at CRAFT understand that every patient is a person with various needs and issues. So generally speaking and practice, our specialists offer treatment designs with an altered convention to oblige differed medicinal requirements of each couple, in the wake of mulling over the seriousness of the ailment, age of the couple and term of the infertility. Here we go for offering our patients best on the planet.

A portion of our accomplishments as are tribute to the decided endeavors by our group to wind up the Quality driven, progressed, advanced focus that we are today.

GIFT Gyno IVF Center

Gyno Specialty Hospital was set up by U.K returned specialist couple (Dr. Mani & Dr. Anitha Mani) in 2003 as a multi forte healing facility. It was set up as an inside for perfection in high hazard pregnancy, infertility and laparoscopic surgery.ART (helped regenerative methods, for example, IVF and ICSI were presented with the foundation for best in class, ART lab in 2007, with Dr. Arun gudi as in control, as a full time embryologist. In this manner GIFT-Gyno IVF focus was born.The superb cooperation and high patient fulfillment brought about the brisk development of GIFT, which makes us the Best Fertility Facility in Kerala.

Blessing is found in16000 square feet working with abundant auto stopping offices with simple access.

Cochin International Airport just 6 km away. In excess of 70 flights work all through this Airport day by day, interfacing every single real city crosswise over India and International goals It is simple access to real Railway stations and Bus terminals, just 5 km to Angamali and Aluva, National high way NH 47 is few meters from GIFT.

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