Tumgik
#unironically though.
ludcake · 10 months
Text
sometimes i think some of you need to throw up your hands and just go do some asoiaf discord oc rp in private. it's fine. nobody will shame you for it. you can have your cool au and your weird characters and your unique dynamics and your personal headcanons. not everything that comes from asoiaf needs to be canon. you're not forced to stay to canon. go have some fun. go write a weird dragongender targaryen or a fucked up bolton. you're not a slave to canon you don't need to rage against it daenaera velaryon isn't re-
41 notes · View notes
aleatoryw · 1 year
Text
getting blazed as fuck in public, thinking "boy I sure hope no one knows how high I am right now", and then having the jumpscare of your life when duolingo gives you this notification
Tumblr media
71K notes · View notes
hrokkall · 3 months
Text
Tumblr media
Totality
4K notes · View notes
uncanny-tranny · 1 year
Text
I love love love when trans women* give advice to trans men* about """manly""" things and when trans men* return that kindness with advice about """womanly""" things. I love the intracommunity commitment to supporting each other <<3
3K notes · View notes
mipexch · 5 days
Text
Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media
sixnine dump
413 notes · View notes
locusfandomtime · 4 months
Text
Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
Tumblr media
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
886 notes · View notes
canisalbus · 10 months
Note
Tumblr media
gothic lolita machete came to me in a dream
.
2K notes · View notes
soupfather · 9 months
Text
I want y’all to know whenever you reblog my junk with little notes or whatever they’re called I read them all multiple times over and I’m like
Tumblr media
1K notes · View notes
houseswife · 4 months
Text
Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media
kinda has me creasing how wilson is just casually on the world’s slowest treadmill for the entirety of this scene. he’s like a hamster
565 notes · View notes
featheryalarmclock · 12 days
Text
year two luau moment
Tumblr media
One of my good dudes (The same irl friend who gave the plane pattern scrub hat idea for the last meme) sent me another meme a while ago and I just couldn't say no and had to draw it I'm very predictable
Tumblr media
226 notes · View notes
theabigailthorn · 10 months
Text
almost done with the research phase of the next episode of Philosophy Tube - there's a high probability that Kelly will be back lmao
980 notes · View notes
mimicmew · 11 months
Text
Tumblr media
would you believe me if i said that this game tackles generational trauma left by wars and the loss of childhood better than like. i dunno call of duty or some shit
710 notes · View notes
egophiliac · 1 year
Note
wait are you trying to tell me that grim hasn't just been floating midair for the entire game? i also just kinda assumed he could fly 🥺
I don't know if they've ever actually said either way? I assumed it was just a sprite thing, since he talks about not being able to reach things, stands on a pile of books for alchemy class, and things like that. but I've also seen a lot of people draw him as being able to float, so it's not an uncommon interpretation!
alternatively:
Tumblr media
3K notes · View notes
deancrowleycas · 4 days
Text
coming online to say that he's not beating the allegations
99 notes · View notes
aleatoryw · 2 years
Text
now that's what I call a success story
Tumblr media Tumblr media
2K notes · View notes
yiippeeekaley · 4 months
Text
"Sonic despises the very concept of technology and would never use so much as a phone"
Why is this a sentiment that people have and what is it even based on?
Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media
No, really. At what point could you ever come to the conclusion that Sonic has a rule against technology as a whole?
Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media
Tumblr media
Tumblr media Tumblr media
Tumblr media Tumblr media Tumblr media
Before anyone says "but in CD-" CD has good futures where technology is a forefront element
Tumblr media Tumblr media
173 notes · View notes