#(and i have more of the latter but i think these are the likeliest of them to be finished)

[cowherderess]

Tagged by @kittensittin @dee-thequeenbee @waywardted - thank you friends! 😊 tagging @thatsrightjohngoodman @boglady @sunflowerromcom and anyone else who hasn't done it yet and wants to!

Rules: Pick a bunch of your WIPs and summarize them as badly as possible, then ask your followers to vote on which one they’d be most likely to read. Multiple/all/none options are completely optional.

[hell-heron]

Greyjoy Ages Post, Attempting To Be Objective

A lot of people really bravely try to make sense of one of the many parts of asoiaf where GRRM didn't even try to account for the linear passage of time. I generally tend to disagree with at least one of the conclusion, however, hence my idea to make a post with just every information we have, as reference for people to draw their own, just as a fun challenge to myself, since I'm very aware there isn't a canon truth George intended to be gleaned here. Special thanks to whoever started A Search Of Ice And Fire or I would have died halfway through this

1 - Theon and Asha's age

Theon is described by himself, Asha, and Catelyn as having been ten when he left Pyke or when he reached Winterfell. The only exception is Asha's "I liked you better when you were nine". It's also emphasized as meaningful (by Robb and by Balon) that he was a hostage half his life specifically, during ACOK and thus in 299, the latter only after Theon corrects him about having been 10 years rather than 9 since he left. He's also described as being nineteen in the first chapter of AGOT, which, without getting in the specifics of the fanmade timeline, seems to be early in 298. I'm not going to completely discount that he might have been 9 (in the sense of having turned 9 that year) but it's unlikely to me

If his departure from Pyke was in 289 (The World Of Ice And Fire tells us both that the Greyjoy rebellion started in 289 and that it was over in less than a year), this gives his birthdate as having been in 279 or 278. If it was in 290, then it's 281, 280 or 279. I personally find the first set more believable as 1) I feel like the year changing might have been recorded in an historical document, 2) every time someone thinks of the end of the rebellion (Theon himself remembering his journey to Winterfell, Ned thinking of when he last saw Robert which might also have involved some post war celebration) their maths of how many years it's been always goes back to being 289, with the exception of Balon's misremembering above 3) Catelyn in ACOK refers to Balon wearing a crown "if only for a season". We know that the long summer started in 289 (in the prologue of ACOK Maester Cressen says it's been ten years, two turns and sixteen days, and it's definitely 299 by then) so that season was probably the short spring before the long summer, and it was over within 289.

So the range 278-281, with 279 being the likeliest to me as it has him freshly turned 10 for the Greyjoy rebellion and 19 in early AGOT. The only information we ever get about Asha's age is she's 3 years older than Theon (in Theon ACOK I), so it's 275-278 (but again most likely imho 276

2 - Aeron and Urrigon's age

We get a precise-ish number for Urrigon

A flying axe took off half of Urri's hand when he was ten-and-four, playing at the finger dance whilst his father and his elder brothers were away at war.

This refers to Robert's rebellion, which the Greyjoys joined after "a raven came to Pyke with word of Prince Rhaegar's death upon the Trident" , which The World of Ice and Fire claims happened in 282, but doesn't feel very right to me at all, to be honest, as that seems to presume kind of a flash development of Robert's rebellion (here are some calculations made by other fans for reference). Even if it was 282, it was probably late enough the Greyjoys would not have joined before 283, imho. However let's be broad and say it could be 282, 283 or 284 supposing that the Greyjoys took a long time to come home after Quellon's death (awoiaf tells us 'by then the war was almost done", which feels more like still 283, but still) . So 267-270 is his range, with 268-269 as the more likely, however. This means the oldest birth year for Aeron is 268.

For the youngest he could be there are maybe some clues here if you take this speech as following at least rough chronological order:

It shamed him still to recall the years that followed Urri's death. At six-and-ten he called himself a man, but in truth he had been a sack of wine with legs. He would sing, he would dance (but not the finger dance, never again), he would jape and jabber and make mock. He played the pipes, he juggled, he rode horses, and could drink more than all the Wynches and the Botleys, and half the Harlaws too. The Drowned God gives every man a gift, even him; no man could piss longer or farther than Aeron Greyjoy, as he proved at every feast. Once he bet his new longship against a herd of goats that he could quench a hearthfire with no more than his cock. Aeron feasted on goat for a year, and named the longship Golden Storm, though Balon threatened to hang him from her mast when he heard what sort of ram his brother proposed to mount upon her prow.

In the end the Golden Storm went down off Fair Isle during Balon's first rebellion, cut in half by a towering war galley called Fury when Stannis Baratheon caught Victarion in his trap and smashed the Iron Fleet. Yet the god was not done with Aeron, and carried him to shore. Some fishermen took him captive and marched him down to Lannisport in chains, and he spent the rest of the war in the bowels of Casterly Rock, proving that krakens can piss farther and longer than lions, boars, or chickens.

This would mean he's 17 at the youngest at the time of the Greyjoy rebellion (so born in or before 272) which anyhow fits with a reasonable minimum age for a pretty feckless lad to get his own ship, but it's not a fixed number. 268-272 overall

3 - Maron and Rodrik's age

Latest possible Maron's birth year is 277, but more likely to be 274-275, based on Asha's. I'm going to assume there are no twins involved or it would have been mentioned. The only real indication is they must have both been old enough to have been involved in combat in some capacity, which is really taken care of by them being older than Asha already. (Above, Urrigon was not involved in combat at 14, but I think we can expect Balon to exercise less common sense than Quellon on this) Rodrik is kind of implied to have been commanding the assault to Seagard

"When my brother stormed Seagard,” Theon said. Lord Jason had slain Rodrik Greyjoy under the walls of the castle, and thrown the ironmen back into the bay.

If you assume this must mean Rodrik was a captain, the ages we get for that are 15 (Dagon Greyjoy) 17 (Balon) 16-19 (Aeron). Theon is also made a captain at once at 20-sh with no discussion of whether it's too soon, and Asha obviously already is one at 23-ish. Maron dies at Pyke, so there's no indication he's a captain as well, though he could have been and simply have returned to Pyke at the same time Balon did.

4 - Balon, Euron, Victarion and irrelevant dead brothers age

This gets really complicated, mostly because our only source of anything material is Aeron, who's not the reliablest of narrators in general and very removed in time from his older brothers. Still here's what we get.

Nine sons had been born from the loins of Quellon Greyjoy, the Lord of the Iron Islands. Harlon, Quenton, and Donel had been born of Lord Quellon’s first wife, a woman of the Stonetrees. Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urrigon, and Aeron were the sons of his second, a Sunderly of Saltcliffe. For a third wife Quellon took a girl from the green lands, who gave him a sickly idiot boy named Robin, the brother best forgotten. The priest had no memory of Quenton or Donel, who had died as infants. Harlon he recalled but dimly, sitting grey-faced and still in a windowless tower room and speaking in whispers that grew fainter every day as the greyscale turned his tongue and lips to stone. One day we shall feast on fish together in the Drowned God’s watery halls, the four of us and Urri too. Nine sons had been born from the loins of Quellon Greyjoy, but only four had lived to manhood.

The Wiki's age calculations page takes this very literally as implying none of the boys from Quellon's first marriage lived to age 16. If you accept this, it does put a very tight timeframe on the births as, depending on how you feel about how young is too young to suspend your disbelief on Aeron forming conscious memories, and whether you accept some of the dead kids might have been twins, the age difference between Balon and Aeron must be no more than 13-14 years. (11-13 if you assume, as the Wiki does, Harlon to be the oldest of the children of Quellon's first marriage, which, this list seems to be going in by birth order, but it's not explicitely said, so YMMV). This would give us a very earliest birth year of 254 based on Aeron's very earliest possible birth year calculated above.

Otoh, given greyscale can take up to 5-10 years according to JonCon to kill you, there's the chance that Aeron is not being super exact here, and Harlon might simply have been under 16 when the greyscale started paralyzing him but have died years later. TWOIAF refers to the sons of Quellon's first marriage as having died "in their youth".

At fifteen [Balon] had sailed with Dagmer Cleftjaw to the Stepstones and spent a summer reaving.

This is not terribly useful but does exclude some birth dates as we know a winter was going on around 273, as Tyrion mentiones that "He had been born in the dead of winter, a terrible cruel one that the maesters said had lasted near three years"

Victarion has a couple vague thoughs that could help give a feeling of where he's positioned relatively to his brothers:

Obedience came naturally to Victarion Greyjoy; he had been born to it. Growing to manhood in the shadow of his brothers, he had followed Balon dutifully in everything he did. Later, when Balon's sons were born, he had grown to accept that one day he would kneel to them as well, when one of them took his father's place upon the Seastone Chair.

(implying he expected to outlive Balon but also that he had already grown into manhood when his kids were born, which REALLY clashes with the very tight timeframe mentioned above. But that's how the whole thing is, you just have to pick which information you want to take as figurative)

"I was a loyal brother," Victarion went on. "When Balon was wed, it was me he sent to Harlaw to bring him back his bride.

(especially if you feel this is a role he would have to have been a captain to do)

He had never fought a man armed with a Valyrian steel blade, though he had thrashed young Harras Harlaw many a time when both of them were young. As a boy Harlaw had been fast friends with Balon's eldest son, Rodrik, who had died beneath the walls of Seagard.

Info on Euron mostly comes from this

“Well, if you count half-brothers. Do you remember little Robin? Wretched creature. Do you remember that big head of his, how soft it was? All he could do was mewl and shit. He was my second. Harlon was my first. All I had to do was pinch his nose shut. The greyscale had turned his mouth to stone so he could not cry out. But his eyes grew frantic as he died. They begged me. When the life went out of them, I went out and pissed into the sea, waiting for the god to strike me down. None did.

Euron having killed Harlon also puts a limit on how much age difference the brothers can have had, and also def reinforces that Harlon was at least pre-teen aged when he died. It's also clear that Robin was at least a toddler when he died, and he was born in early 283 or before then.

I really wanted to say something about Alannys as well but there's really not much at all, the only informations are:

The AFFC appendix defines her as Rodrik's younger sister, and he's 7 years younger than Gwynesse so Alannys is at least 8 years younger than her

Tywin does not includes Alannys in the group of wives of potential marriage candidates for Cersei who are younger than their husbands, so probably Balon and Alannys don't have a large age gap, it's also true that Tywin is probably seeing her differently because of her known illness however

[rising-volteccers]

AHH Friede's in danger but he'll get out of it!! I'm excited to see him terastalizeing! What kind of tera do you think he'd have?

I KNOW I'm just so excited to see that scene! I've been rotating it in my head for weeks now since it dropped. Mr Friede please is your number available--

Though in all seriousness, I've been speculating on the Pokemon he'd terastalize and what Tera Type it'd be! Going from the scenes of that preview weeks back + this week's, I feel like Friede would be terastalizing his Charizard! I can see that Friede had Cap stay on the ship to protect it while he went to investigate the Magneton that disrupted the ship's reboot. Thus he would only have Charizard on hand as he followed it, eventually leading him to that alley where he gets cornered by Spinel's Beheeyem.

With Charizard's current moveset being Flamethrower and Dragon Claw, the rather obvious Tera Type would be Fire Tera Type or Dragon Tera Type to further boost those moves. But I think that Charizard's likely Tera type would be Dark Type Tera!

Here are the reasons why I speculate that to be the case:

To promote and act as the tie-in to the release of the Pokemon TCG Ruler of the Black Flame and Obsidian Flames cards set

Last month, this card was revealed (or leaked, as I recalled seeing someone mention that the original post was deleted) showcasing Dark Tera Type Charizard that is a part of the Ruler of the Black Flame set.

And just a few days ago, this card was revealed for the Obsidian Flames set.

Given that one of the major supporting cast has a Charizard and that they're showcasing him terastalizing, it feels rather purposeful given that Japanese Pokeani Twitter has also shared the July calendar with next week's episode highlighted with those sparkles, which to me feels like it's saying 'hey, this episode is special!'

That episode is on the 21st, with the Ruler of the Black Flame set will release in Japan on the 28th (while Obsidian Flames would be released worldwide on 11th August, two weeks later). To me, it feels like early advertisement or to hype up the release of the set.

Charizard is capable of learning Dark-type moves (in a way)

Looking through Charizard's learnset, they're not capable of learning Dark-type moves regularly. They are, however, capable of learning them via TMs. Now I'm not sure if they'd strictly follow Charizard's learnset in Horizons but via TMs in Gen 9, Charizard is capable of learning Fling and Crunch. The latter seems the likeliest case seeing that I doubt Charizard would have a held item and I find that it fits how Friede's Pokemon seems to adopt a more physical approach in their attacks (or at least Cap is. Not fully sure with Charizard).

Charizard are also capable of learning Bite as an Egg move but since Crunch is just the superior Bite, I feel like this could possibly be Charizard's Dark-type move that Dark Tera Type would boost.

There's also the chance that Friede has him learn Tera Blast also via TM. It'd be a good way to showcase one of Gen 9's newest moves revolving around Tera Type. That, or he uses Dark Tera Type defensively instead of offensively.

Dark Tera Type Charizard counters / is strong against the Explorers' Pokemon

When the idea of Dark Type Tera Charizard buried itself into my mind, one of my first thoughts was that it counters Amethio's Ceruledge and Spinel's Beheeyem as both of those Pokemon are weak to Dark-type moves. Charizard being a Dark-type would also have him be resistant or outright immune to most of Ceruledge's currently known moveset in that Bitter Blade would do regular damage but he'd resist Night Slash and Phantom Force (which it only learns via TM) while outright being immune to Psycho Cut.

Meanwhile with Beheeyem, they learn primarily Psychic-type moves and nothing they learn TM wise would be able to hit Dark-type Charizard effectively.

My speculation is that Friede gets cornered in that alley and gets tag teamed by Spinel's Magneton and Beheeyem. To negate the damage of a two against one, Dark Tera Type Charizard becomes immune to Beheeyem's Psychic-type moves as well as negating his Electric-type weakness, thus allowing him to have the upper hand on Magneton since he still hits it hard with Flamethrower.

Regardless of what may happen, I'm genuinely excited to see how it plays out! I'm ready to scream over how attractive Friede is when he terastalize haha

[clemencetaught]

I wasn't sure if y'wanted them sent in today or tomorrow, BUT TO NOT MESS UP-- (you mentioned answering ic in the tags so yeeting these directly at Patrick >:3 sorry if they're too many omg)

Patrick (any verse)

What does it feel like when others depend on you, in one way or another?

Are you more prone to assuming someone needs you (in a service kind of way, for aid, for support-) or more likely to think they don't?

If psychics were 120% reliable and you could connect to those long gone… would you?

In which contexts are you more 'do as I say not as I do' and in which will you listen to your own advice?

Do you ever catch yourself growing… a little bitter, maybe, at people describing their comparatively 'mundane' problems? Is it envy?

Do you believe children should be shaped for the likeliest future or the future should be shaped for the children to come?

When is self-sacrifice acceptable?

When is hurting those you love acceptable?

in which the 54th victor of the hunger games gives an impromptu interview ( nosy questions for the birthday enby w/ @mythvoiced )

The tea cup is set on the saucer. Discreetly, Patrick slides his other hand into his pocket, where the synthetic patch on his palm wraps around his pocket knife– a habit of sorts, since he won his games. His pocket watch sits on the table, next to the saucier and on his lap, Sun has wrapped herself into a ball, her paws disappearing into the mass of orange fur. On the balcony outside his apartment in the Capitol, this is the only place Patrick knows he will be granted a modicum of privacy in the viper’s nest. 

The shadow of the balcony covers the upper half of his body. Sun keeps dozing on his lap, in the sun. 

Most times, when the questions are directed at him, they’re expecting an affirmative. Doesn’t matter if it’s coming from a District person or a Capitolite– they go to him for answers, first and foremost. And in the case of the latter, these questions are not questions so much as veiled demands. 

Ones that he must always accommodate, regardless of the nature of the demand. 

But these questions, this voice, is…well they seem genuinely curious. And the questions they’ve lobbed his way, they don’t seem to be expecting one correct answer.

Sun shifts on his lap. His leg vibrates from her purring. Patrick sighs, leaning back on his chair. “That…quite a lot of thoughts you have going on there, hm?” The knife stays in his pocket as he gently scratches the top of Sun’s head. “I’ll answer your second question first: people will always look out for themselves first. If they don’t think you’re useful, that you can contribute something good to their lives, then you’re dead to them, if they don’t kill you first. Make yourself indispensable to them and they won’t hurt you.” At least that’s what he tells himself– it’s easier to simply assume anyone who approaches him that they want something he can give them. “The younger victors will need someone to guide them anyway.” 

And even the ones who vehemently deny needing someone, anyone. Patience is always key in those instances– from Taiyang whom it took almost six years and his tribute’s sanity to finally approach Patrick to María, who still slaps away any hands offered, friend or foe. Ironically, he had to approach her first.  

“…I suppose I don’t think too much about that. If someone was asking for your help, you would be more caught up in what they’re asking, more than how you were feeling no?” A Trojan horse, he’s lobbed in their direction although he’s quick to revise: “...It scares me sometimes.” He confides, fingers pausing in their administrations on Sun’s head. Actually it scares him, a lot. “They’re…they’re relying on me to guide them to the best outcome and I want the same thing for them. I promise you, I really, truly do.” Whether it’s Hyuk, Devora, a tribute he’s been assigned to mentor, or any of the victors. And sometimes even the furball in his lap and yet– “But I…I can’t always guarantee that. But they still trust me, especially the younger ones.” The tributes from District Three– his tributes, the ones who take his hand, look up at him with wide eyes, clinging to every word, every gesture he makes as it will guarantee their survival. “Sometimes I think it would be better if they exercised more caution with me.”   

A smile, bittersweet, if not actually just bitter, graces his lips. He shakes his head though, chuckling at the next question. “...Forgive me, that’s quite a question you have there. ‘Psychics’... I don’t believe that’s information that just anyone, district or Capitol, can get ahold of–  although I have heard of some old religions still practiced in the districts so I suppose the knowledge and belief in such mediums is possible to get ahold of.” He stares down at his tea, the steam still rising. Even if it is a hypothetical question on a medium known to be more shoddy than reputable, he can’t help but pause. If they could contact those ‘long gone’; would that mean, if he asked them to, would he be able to speak to her one last time–

He shakes his head, eye catching his pocket watch, metal beaten and faded, the clock face wearing a crack down the right side. Still, it shimmers in the sunlight. “Even if I could, I…I highly doubt she would want to talk to me of all people.” If they hadn’t met, if they hadn’t fallen in love, she probably would still be alive. Tellessa’s family too. 

After all, he was the first person outside of Tellessa who knew about her forbidden books. “Wherever they are, it’s probably better than here.” Or at least he hopes it is for her. A place where life doesn’t have to be perfect, but it is…easier. A place for souls to rest at long last. If such a place even exists in the first place. He picks up his saucer once more, still careful not to jostle Sun on his legs. She’s taken to loafing now– he knows her eyes are closed even if her head dips every few seconds. But make no mistake, that does not mean she is unaware. Trusting of the one asking the questions. If it was just him, she would be stretched out, a white underbelly waiting for his hand to scratch kindly at the ceiling.

Perhaps the saying is true after all: like owner, like pet. Although Patrick would argue she’s more like Hyuk if anything.

“It depends on the circumstances,” he says as neutrally as possible. A vague answer for a hypothetical question, because that is truly it. “I suppose if one’s life was on the line, it would be better if they followed my lead, no?” 

Not that that’s stopped, those with rebellious tendencies from committing treason anyways. ( And unfortunately, he can name more than one. ) It is ironic in that manner– for someone who knows the system, knows how to work within the rules all, has spent years perfecting his craft in survival arts, it would make more sense to invest on those with similar goals. And yet here he is, worrying about the ones who are decided not interested in survival and therefore would spurn his advice at any given moments. “Not that…that following my advice has ever helped them make it through.” 

(His tributes. All thirty nine of them. No two games are ever the same, the gamemakers would never allow that. If the circus known as the Hungers Games must be reborn over and over again if it wishes to continue.)

He takes a sip of his tea, washing down the momentary displeasure. Or at least he thinks it will be only a moment long. “I suppose what a Capitol citizen would consider a ‘mundane issue’, as you put it, would differ from those of someone from the districts. The former does seem more inclined towards complaining if only to build comradery amongst one another. I’m just glad that they have such means to…channel their frustrations.” 

( It’s in times like those, where he wishes his temper could curdle, the way Devora’s does in the face of the Capitol Elite. How he wishes he could simply let her use the knife to silence those idle complaints. )

Patrick takes another sip of his tea. It burns in his throat. It’s bitter too– he must have let the leaves seep for too long. But the asperity doesn’t just settle on his tongue. “Are we talking about an ideal world or the one we live in now? Depending on who you ask this question to, you’re guaranteed to get quite…different answers.” A smile, as frigid as the shaved ice the Capitol serves as a delicacy during the games, crosses his lips. “Our great nation was built to provide safety and prosperity for the children. To serve them. Although whether the truth is actually the other way around will again, depend on who you ask. As a mentor to my tributes, I suppose…we can’t deny the reality in front of us, no?”

Sun yawns. He puts his tea down and idly, he scratches the underside of her chin and he feels her purring against his finger. “Are you sure you should be asking me that question? I would think there are more…suitable candidates for this question.” People like Hyuk, he means. People like María– the kinds who would gladly make sacrifices, give pieces of themselves for a cause. “Self-sacrifice won’t get you where you need to be– there’s a reason martyrs are only known after their death– they’re even given a chance to be known. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. They’re only deluding themselves into believing they can make everything better. A…colleague of mine said it best: ‘a martyr works, a survivor works better’. If you want to truly help the ones around you, self-sacrifice will only get you so far.”

Or so Patrick claims. He can hear it though– the sound of Hyuk shouting at him to stop lying. The truth is, self-sacrifice, if it is for a tangible reason, is…well maybe it is not worthwhile, but it can be certainly respected, especially if this tangible reason is a human life. The Capitol will always wonder what spurred Patrick to hold his district partner’s hand even if it burned a hole through his skin, will always wonder why Taiyang insisted on protecting Link in the arena, will always wonder why, why, why would Devora so willingly serve as President Snow’s puppet even if it further severs her ties to the districts despite everything the games took from her.

They would never understand compassion in a dog-eat-dog world– self sacrifice.

“...However, I suppose, if there was truly a good reason to do so…well, I have yet to see it.”

( Like the promise of a better world. If there is even one that exists. )

His hand stops. Sun turns her head towards him, copper eyes watching him. “When do we not hurt the ones we love?” Perhaps the better question for him is: when is he not hurting the ones he loves? He saw it in her eyes and Hyuk’s too. And yet they forgave him, somehow, every time. If not for that, well…would there even be a reason to keep going? “That’s part of caring for someone, no? You are preparing for them to hurt you without retaliation.” He shakes his head, snorting. “I think the answer should be obvious, if it guarantees their well-being in the long run, I think that is a gamble to be considered. That being said–” 

Sun jumps off his lap and stretches, paws facing this curious passerby. Patrick crosses his legs, hands resting on his lap. A veneer, similar to the one he dons in the Capitol flashes through, even if he is not currently in his usual suit. “You wouldn’t want to be close with someone like me. I’ve been known to have…a reputation of sorts. One of burning and you could…no, you would most definitely get hurt, one way or another and we wouldn’t want that happening, no? Just a thought for you to consider.”

He watches Sun make her way to the sliding glass door in the shade. Her tails whips side to side as she looks up at the handle. Then she looks at him and meows. 

Patrick glances at his pocket watch. “It’s feeding time for Sun.” Well, sort of– it’s more like it’s half an hour before her feeding time, but he knows gets antsy the closer meal time gets around. But this person doesn’t have to know that. “If you’ll excuse me, I’ll be taking care of business now. If you need anything more, you know where to find me.”

Or better yet, he’ll know where to find them.

[bestworstcase]

prepared to eat these words possibly but i’m… really not convinced that jaune’s going to have the villain arc that so many people seem to expect from him in V9. ominous fiery knight in the teaser, sure, it does seem like a nonzero possibility but i have yet to see an argument for how he gets there from guilt-stricken self-hatred and grief that doesn’t boil down to “…and then the ever after brainwashes him”

1. the ever after appears to respond to emotions, and 2. the release date trailer has ruby encountering a figment of her younger self; it seems more likely to me that the knight is, well… that. a manifestation of what jaune feels about himself that he will need to confront.

further, it would feel extremely odd imo for the volume that promises to be about exploration of the main characters’ self-identities, their chosen purposes, their understanding of themselves as heroes, to maneuver jaune into a major antagonistic role—the story then becomes about team rwby alternately fighting jaune or trying to save him, relegating their own desperately needed reckonings to the narrative margins. either the release date trailer is flat out lying by making ruby’s lack of identity beyond heroism its centerpiece or whatever’s going on with jaune isn’t meant to pull focus, and in light of how overtly V6-8 built up toward ruby having a crisis of identity after taking up the mantle of humanity’s savior the latter feels several orders of magnitude more likely.

i’m just. doubtful that a jaune villain arc of any significance can happen at this point without turning into the locus of the volume’s identity theme, and rwby is frankly Better Than That; on the other hand, there is a second and only slightly less salient question undergirding V9 and that is whether or not the kids are equipped to stop salem, and i think THAT is likely to be where jaune fits into the narrative arc. because i don’t think the answer to that question is a matter of capability. how do you stop a desperate woman who cannot be stopped by force? you have to talk to her. the inescapable fact is that this conflict does not end until salem either wins or they negotiate with her; the kids are not equipped to do that now, but i suspect they will be by the time they make it back to remnant.

and, very conveniently, salem’s heroic foil is stranded in the ever after too, isolated and grappling with his private demons while team rwby try to find their way home without him because none of them know that he fell. i think they’re probably going to trip over him at a critical point in the “how do we stop salem?” narrative arc and jaune, who a) is by a wide margin the likeliest hero-side character to be able to think about salem’s side of this conflict (because his own ordeals fairly closely mirror hers), and b) has already had the seed planted re: salem being possible to reason with, will be integral in revealing the answer.

(check mr. tactics guy’s expression when salem Releases Them in witch, then ask yourself this: why did the woman who can effortlessly pin people to the floor with a snap of her fingers deliberately withdraw the restraints holding her captives before she fought hazel to, notionally, prevent him from giving those captives a window of opportunity to escape? bc jaune noticed that. he didn’t have the chance to think about it right then but now he’s stuck in wonderland with nothing to do but agonize about whether he could have done something, ANYTHING different so that penny could still be alive. and: he really didn’t have a choice during the battle. he had seconds to act; his semblance does not heal injuries anywhere near that quickly. but what if he could have done something before that battle to alter the course of fate? what if he’d acted on that moment of confusion back on the whale, for example. what if he’d followed that perception of something not adding up to the bizarre but logical conclusion that salem decided to let them escape for some reason, what if he’d gotten oscar off the whale and left the ace-ops to blow her up instead, would the ultimatum have still happened, would the evacuation and the catastrophic fight that interrupted it have gone differently? would it have happened at all?—the answer is probably no, it wouldn’t have changed very much in the grand scheme, because even if ironwood used his nuke blowing salem up she would’ve been back in an hour or two tops and penny had already been infected by the virus by then. but think about how irresistible this line of thinking might be to a guy whose self-esteem was already on the floor before cinder murdered his friend right in front of him, when his desperation not to lose anyone else and his hatred of himself for not being able to save pyrrha has been what drives him since beacon fell. this poor kid’s brain is going to be fucking devouring anything, any inkling of “maybe if i had done this penny wouldn’t have died” whether it’s rational or not. and like… they gave him that beat of “huh???” after salem set them loose for a reason.)

[dandunn]

Oh goodness I am terrible at coming up with prompts but what about Lupin and Goemon and, early mornings? Or maybe waking up together

Cw: mentions of drinking, sex, references to vomit

Mornings. Time for quiet; meditation, contemplation, the calm before the storm and chaos of the day.

…But now that he's a semi-permanent fixture in Lupin's gang, morning peace isn't always a given. Or it comes with a price.

Goemon frowns, sensing something amiss. It's abnormally hot, his bed sheets stifling despite the cool of the morning waving past gossamer curtains. 

Even though he already suspects where the source of the extra warmth is coming from, he throws off the covers to reveal Lupin wrapped around him like a python. His normally backswept hair is falling in loose bangs over his forehead and his eyes are deeply shadowed, accentuated further by the fact that he seems to have a black eye. One eye opens to peek at Goemon coyly, smiling despite his battered appearance.

"Oh, mornin' Goe-Goe." Lupin says, his voice groggy and rasping.

"Why are you in my bed?" Goemon replies mildly, too used to Lupin's clinginess to be annoyed. At least he isn't naked (this time) in fact he only seems to have shucked off his jacket, shoes and tie before giving up and getting into bed in his rumpled clothing.

"I don't remember." Lupin shrugs, "I think I tried to get in with Jigen but he kicked me out."

Ah. Black eye.

An empty bottle of whiskey made it into bed with Lupin, which he now pulls out and unscrews to take a sip.

"You know that you should not surprise him like that." Goemon chides him.

Lupin wipes his scruffy chin and grins, transferring a drop of amber onto the back of his hand, "Well, I know you wouldn't do that to me." He tosses the bottle aside and wriggles closer to Goemon still, rubbing his unshaven chin all over his bare shoulder.

"I am only giving you a pass for being extremely drunk." Goemon mutters, Lupin's chin scruff itches and he reaches over to lightly cuff his face away.

They all have their moments of inebriation, but Lupin is likeliest to get what he refers to as 'sloppy drunk'.

"You are aware that I need to rise soon." Goemon reminds him, attempting to move and finding himself being prevented from doing so.

Lupin giggles and hugs him tighter, "Nuh-uh."

Goemon lies there, stuck on his side and blushing. He only went to bed wearing underwear and Lupin doesn't seem to care. Either that or he's fully aware and enjoying it. 

"Was that the only reason he hit you?" Goemon asks.

"Well I was trying to be a good wingman at the bar and get him laid, but he didn't give me any appreciation for it." Lupin snorts, breath puffing Goemon's ear. "He was being cranky. When you're in a mood like that you either need a fight or a fuck and I was trying to save him some pain and get him to do the latter."

"Stop trying to assume people's needs, Lupin. You are not always the best at it."

The man behind him huffs before shuffling around, and Goemon hears the whiskey bottle being unscrewed again.

"You are already hungover, how is that going to help?" Goemon twists around, using Lupin's temporary lapse in concentration to try and snatch the bottle away.

"It's called the hair of the dog, dad!"

"And I suppose Jigen giving you a black eye wasn't because you asked him if he would like to sleep with you again?"

"I told you I don't remember." Lupin pouts, but he turns furtive and quiet. He hugs the whiskey bottle to his chest when Goemon tries to take it.

Lupin gets awfully honest when he's drunk and his filter lets more things slip through than usual. He turns his back on Goemon, cradling the bottle like it's his child. 

The samurai, pitiless by nature, would just leave him there to go about his day. But for some reason, some kind of impulse propels him to press his chest against Lupin's back. 

"You cannot force people to desire you in a specific way, Lupin. Appreciate what you have. If something is meant to be, it will show its true form eventually."

Lupin sighs deeply, running his nails  across the textured surface of the whiskey bottle with a musical sound, "Thanks, Dr Spock."

"Who?"

"Nevermind."

Goemon brushes Lupin's upper arm a couple of times, before the smell of him causes his nose to wrinkle. He stinks of whiskey and cigarettes, "I believe a shower will help you feel better." He hedges, gaining no response from the man in his arms, he adds; "and breakfast?"

Lupin half rolls over, his shadowed eyes starting to sparkle, "you promise?"

"Yes."

"And it won't just be white rice and a plain omelette?"

"...I will make an effort."

Goemon finally manages to tug the whiskey bottle out of Lupin's grip and places it on the bedside table, then the thief dives into his arms.

"You're the best, Goe-Goe."

Despite himself, Goemon nuzzles Lupin's scruffy face and kisses his swollen brow lightly. "Come, it is time to face the day."

"Yeah, you're right." 

When Lupin gets to his feet he instantly turns white, then a shade of green which could match the colour of one of his suits.

"Bathroom!"

[munsons-maiden]

Hey, I just wanted to say I definitely believe Eddie is coming back next season, but I was wondering if you think there’s a good chance they’ll bring Chrissy back also? I feel like it’s be a good decision on Netflix’s part, since Chrissy/her dynamic with Eddie have been super popular as well. Considering she was only in one episode, she left a huge impact on the show. I don’t know if there’s any instances of Grace hinting that she might be back similar to Joe, but I’d love to see them together again. Their chemistry was amazing and Chrissy is a character with a lot of untapped potential as well.

It depends on exactly how they'd do it.

I love Chrissy, and I'd love to see more of her and the dynamic she had with Eddie and the Duffers already said they shared that sentiment, but since Chrissy is definitely dead - else, the gate wouldn't have opened and we saw her consciousness in Vecna's mindscape, tied to her pillar and just as dead as her body - I don't think they can bring her back back as long as they don't pull an Avengers Endgame style time travelling move.

They could either bring her back in a Hellfire spinoff series that's set as a prequel (though in that case, for Eddie and Chrissy to interact, they'd have to ret-con the scene in the woods) or - and that's what I believe will happen -Chrissy is in the Void with Fred, Patrick, Billy and Max in season 5. If the latter will be the case, Chrissy and the others could help Max achieve what they didn’t didn’t: escape Vecna and live. I think that’s the likeliest option to bring Chrissy back and give her an imactful arc, to help Max escape the Void and I feel like it’s been foreshadowed already since Vecna explained that all of his victims “aren’t gone, but with him“. On a sidenote, such a storyline would bring Max the closure with Billy she needs to move on and have a happy ending. I can’t see why they should put Max in a coma if it wasn’t important for the plot of the next season, because else, they could have simply killed her. Plus, Max is the only one of the party with a connection to Chrissy (apart from Eddie).

Max was the first one to notice something was wrong with Chrissy, the first one of out heroes apart from Eddie to find Chrissy’s body (I mean, Eddie didn’t find her so he doesn’t count here). Max is connected to Chrissy the way she was connected to Heather (and I talked about it a few days ago; Max still feels guilty for not having been able to save Billy AND Heather, becuase if she’d looked closer and listened to El...she might have. And that’s mirrored in the newfound alertness Max displays especially when it comes to Chrissy).

So I believe Chrissy will be back for one final heroic act of helping Max escape the Void, but I don’t think she’ll be back alive as long as they don’t go down the multiverse or timetravel route, which I don’t think.

[lesbiansforboromir]

If a person wanted to write Boromir fic, do you have any tips on how to capture the Tolkieny tone in writing/best scenes to re-read for characterization?

LET ME SEE if I can’t compile a nice guide for you;

First thing’s first! Boromir does not include his own feelings into his statements unless it’s utterly against his will, such as the ring-controlled scene. In fact his discussion with Frodo is the first and last time he expresses his emotions verbally at all and even then it seems to be squeezed out of him in the midst of his ranting ‘how it ANGERS me’ like he is almost shocked at how angry he actually is in that moment, so much so that he can’t hold it back like normal. 

‘I am’ statements in general don’t come often either. He doesn’t use ‘I’ at all if he can help it. If he is describing the war or some conflicts or battles, he uses ‘us’ or ‘we’ ‘Some said that it could be seen, like a great black horseman, a dark shadow under the moon. Wherever he came a madness filled our foes, but fear fell on our boldest, so that horse and man gave way and fled. Only a remnant of our eastern force came back, destroying the last bridge that still stood amid the ruins of Osgiliath. 'I was in the company that held the bridge, until it was cast down behind us. Four only were saved by swimming: my brother and myself and two others.’ Here he mentions himself only as an explanation for the circumstances, and goes quickly back to talking as a collective. (This is the first and last time he mentions Faramir too, and never by name)

The times when Boromir uses ‘I’ statements most is for defining his own actions and intent or when he is offering advice. 'I have let my horn cry at setting forth, and though thereafter we may walk in the shadows, I will not go forth as a thief in the night.' He is clear to himself and others about what he will and won’t accept. 'I will add a word of advice, if I may,' said Boromir. 'I was born under the shadow of the White Mountains and know something of journeys in the high places. We shall meet bitter cold, if no worse, before we come down on the other side. It will not help us to keep so secret that we are frozen to death. When we leave here, where there are still a few trees and bushes, each of us should carry a faggot of wood, as large as he can bear.' Note here he is also polite but in a confident manner. ‘If I may’ is added to acknowledge that he is not the leader of the company, but he is not shy with offering his advice and assuming it useful. 

When he’s in more familiar and less strict circumstances, and actually sometimes even when he isn’t, Boromir has what I would call a... hint of sarcasm in his tone at all times. He’s always got a little sardonic wit with him,  `Let those call it the wind who will; there are fell voices on the air; and these stones are aimed at us.' See? It’s not... OVERT but it’s definitely a little long suffering/etc. Boromir... talks like an old man I guess is my point. 'What do you say to fire?' asked Boromir suddenly. 'The choice seems near now between fire and death, Gandalf. Doubtless we shall be hidden from all unfriendly eyes when the snow has covered us, but that will not help us.' ESPECIALLY when he’s talking to Gandalf, there’s just a bit of dark humour and ‘cheek’. `I do not know which to hope,' said Boromir grimly: `that Gandalf will find what he seeks, or that coming to the cliff we shall find the gates lost for ever. All choices seem ill, and to be caught between wolves and the wall the likeliest chance. Lead on!' jhadsjd BITCHY... but very funny and he’s right. And here also, ‘wolves and the wall’, he tends towards almost... poetic isn’t quite the word but he likes sayings and flowing dialogue. 

Continuing on from that point, Boromir is also generally... not WARM but he’s got a way of speaking that is comfortable and confident in comradery. Especially with Gimli, actually, he often makes these lighter sighed statements that have a lick of humour to them. Again, it’s never particularly overt, more of a constant underlying note in his wording, even in the latter parts of the fellowship. `Ah, it is as I said,' growled Gimli. 'It was no ordinary storm. It is the ill will of Caradhras. He does not love Elves and Dwarves, and that drift was laid to cut off our escape.' 'But happily your Caradhras has forgotten that you have Men with you,' said Boromir, who came up at that moment. `And doughty Men too, if I may say it; though lesser men with spades might have served you better.’ This is one of my favourite lines of his it’s just like... confident, not over proud, you can hear him grinning and the leetle wry tone he’s speaking in. Even here! In like the very last days of his life, he still has this quality! 

We might labour far upstream and yet miss it in the fog. I fear we must leave the River now, and make for the portage-way as best we can from here.' `That would not be easy, even if we were all Men,' said Boromir.     `Yet such as we are we will try it,' said Aragorn.  'Aye, we will,' said Gimli. `The legs of Men will lag on a rough road, while a Dwarf goes on, be the burden twice his own weight, Master Boromir! ' (later) 'Well, here we are, and here we must pass another night,' said Boromir. `We need sleep, and even if Aragorn had a mind to pass the Gates of Argonath by night, we are all too tired-except, no doubt, our sturdy dwarf.'     Gimli made no reply: he was nodding as he sat.

AND ANOTHER THING. Whilst Boromir CAN be an orator and give long speeches, he tends towards economy of speech. This is especially noticeable, again, between him and Gandalf. Gandalf will go on for three paragraphs about something, patronising him, explaining a lot of unnecessary stuff to sound clever. And then Boromir will just answer with; `We do not know what he expects,' said Boromir. `He may watch all roads, likely and unlikely. In that case to enter Moria would be to walk into a trap, hardly better than knocking at the gates of the Dark Tower itself. The name of Moria is black.' And that’s it! AND HE’S FFUCKIN RIGHT GGSHAHGS

So you’re usually going to be trying to narrow down his speech to it’s bare essentials in order to get the point across and nothing more. Stream lined, impersonal, confident and clear are the hallmarks of Boromir’s speech patterns. NO. SHOUTING. Unless to be heard or in a brief flash of shock, immediately restrained afterwards. Actually if Boromir has any kind of outburst, he tends to walk away from whatever situation caused it rather than allow anything to escalate. Boromir’s verbal tone is almost always neutral, wry or reassuring/comfortable. From experience, I can tell you this is... GRUELLING to write. You want so desperately for him to say what he’s thinking and feeling, what’s important to him, but he’s utterly incapable unless briefly possessed by evil. Not even when he’s literally dying will this change, though that might be because it was Aragorn at his deathside. Which brings me onto my final point.

We actually have no idea how Boromir might interact with people he actually likes and is friends with, let alone his family. I’m inclined to believe that warm comradery element just becomes more overt but little else changes. But you’re entirely at liberty to decide for yourself. Certainly though it is different from how he behaves throughout the fellowship. We never really meet Boromir... is a thought I can hardly bare so we’re STOPPING now. 

[warrioreowynofrohan]

Character Thoughts - Maglor

This isn’t particularly novel since I’ve seen most of these ideas before in meta and fics, but I still wanted to pull them together.

During the years in Valinor, and especially before the tension within the Finwëan family turned into outright military factionalism, Maglor would have been one of the most famous and admired people in all Valinor. Music is not a “lesser” art in Elven culture, it’s the single greatest of all the arts; it’s the way that the world is created. And within Valinor, Maglor is unrivalled in this art; the other character who’s on a similar level, Daeron, is far away in Beleriand. All the Finwëans have fans within the Silm fandom, but Maglor is by far the likeliest of them to have had large numbers of in-universe fans.

Fëanor would not have been dissatisfied with Maglor for excelling at music rather than at craft work; he would have been extremely proud of him, to the point of boastfulness. This is particularly the case because music and specifically song is also Indis’ particular skill, so this is something he can throw in the face of his half-family: we’re better than you even at the things that you’re especially good at!

Another interesting thing about Maglor’s music is that, for all fandom’s love of portraying him with musicl instruments, I’m not aware of any line in The Silmarillion that describes him as playing one. Daeron is a piper, Fingon and Finrod both play the harp, but Maglor’s musicianship is described solely in terms of his voice. So it’s possible that he didn’t play any instruments, or did so only rarely. [EDIT: Correction - @cycas has pointed out that Maglor is in fact referred to as a harper in the poetic Leithian.]

The material we have on Maglor from The Silmarillion suggests someone with a high degree of physical courage combined with a distinct lack of moral courage. He stations himself on the one part of the front lines with no geographical defenses, and he holds his forces together and brings them to Himring - enabling the Fëanorians to keep strength of arms on the front lines - during the Battle of Sudden Flame, despite his portion of the lines being directly attacked by Glaurung. (Whereas Celegorm, Curufin and Caranthir, who are all in somewhat less exposed and difficult positions, nonetheless all retreat far to the south.) During the Nirnaeth Arnoediad, he is the one who slays Uldor after the betrayal by Uldor’s forces. So Maglor is clearly formidable both as a warrior and a commander. (This is quite separate from whether Maglor himself thinks he’s a coward. I suspect he’s thought so since the day Fingon returned from Thangorodrim with Maedhros, accomplishing something Maglor had spent all the years since the Return telling himself was impossible and reckless.)

In the years between Fingolfin’s arrival in Beleriand and the Nirnaeth, Maglor is on better terms with the non-Fëanorian Noldor than his you ger brothers are. He doesn’t have any moments of active hostility or unpleasantness towards the other Noldor the way Caranthir, Celegorm and Curufin do. He’s the only brother Maedhros brings to Mereth Aderthad (given the military undesirability of having both your frontline commanders absent at the same time, this strongly indicates that he’s the only one Maedhros can trust to behave himself), and he and Maedhros are the ones Finrod comes to visit prior to his first encounter with the Edain.

The lack of moral courage is something that can be derived from the points in the Silm where Maglor isn’t mentioned. He makes no objection to the burning of the ships. There is no point at which he objects to or is mentioned as opposing any of the Fëanorians’ actions up to and including the Second Kinslaying. Maedhros is horrified by the abandonment of the twins, searches for them, and attempts to forswear the Oath in the subsequent years. We’re given no mention of Maglor’s reaction. Nonetheless, we do know, from the Noldolantë, that he regrets the Kinslaying at Alqualondë. Combined with his reaction to Sirion and his desire to surrender to the Valar at the end, it shows that he does recognize what he’s doing as wrong. He just doesn’t do anything about it until after the Kinslaying at Sirion, when he and Maedhros are the only two left.

This gives me a picture of Maglor who is deeply averse to conflict within his family and who is unwilling to stand up against either his father or his brothers regardless of his own reservations about their actions. There’s a line in Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone about it taking courage to stand up to one’s enemies, but also courage in another way to stand up to one’s friends. Maglor has the former and not the latter.

But after Sirion, in contrast to all the previous events, it’s Maglor rather than Maedhros who is showing the most resistance to further crimes. Maglor is the one who fosters Elrond and Elros; Maglor is the one who’s openly happy about Elwing’s Silmaril, as the Star of Eärendil, being beyond their reach and able to be seen by all; Maglor is the one wants to surrender after the War of Wrath. I think there are two elements to this. First, Maedhros is, within the family, the one Maglor is closest to (they’re frequently mentioned together), and so Maglor is more willing to disagree with him when there’s only the two of them left. Secondly, I think that the Kinslaying at Sirion was most probably led by Maedhros, and this disturbed Maglor deeply. Maedhros is supposed to be the one holding them back, and now he’s doing the opposite, and Maglor is, in addition to coping with his own guilt, desperately trying to get his brother back to being a person he recognizes and remembers. Or a person at all. But Maedhros is pretty much gone by this point.

Another example of Maglor being avoidant is his initial suggestion after the War of Wrath, that they go back to Valinor without rejecting the Oath and just hope that the Valar will give them the Silmarils one day. This is an even worse plan than the one they end up going with - as long as they hold to the Oath, they will keep doing violence in its name - and Maedhros is right to shoot it down. It’s only after that exchange that Maglor reaches the point of saying, well, if we’re damned regardless, let’s at least be damned in a way that doesn’t hurt anyone else. And even after reaching that conclusion, he still gives in.

This makes his fate/decision of ultimately avoiding everyone, and choosing to punish himself in a way that doesn’t involve interacting with other people or grappling with what he’s done to them, particularly fitting. (And is what makes forcing him to grapple with that such an appealing topic for Fourth Age fic.)

[shigures-house]

My new revised Fruits Basket character ages post

First: I am a massive nerd. I’ve been studying how old the Fruits Basket characters are for over a decade now. I’ve gotten things wrong and people have passed me additional information, so I’m always refining it.

Second: the characters don’t really have birthdays because it’s not important to the story. If it mattered, then we’d know the birthdays.

So, what I’ve put together is a mixture of canon ages, calculations based on relative ages, knowledge of Japanese culture, and a source that may or may not actually be canon, the 2001 Fruits Basket character book. As a source of character data, it has not been outright disowned by Natsuki Takaya, which is good, because the western zodiac signs given in that book are a crucial point in calculating these ages.

So, let’s just run through the birth years of the major characters, oldest to youngest and then go on to explanations:

1971 (Year of the Pig) - Hatori, Shigure, Ayame

1972 or 1973 (Rat or Ox) - Kureno

1976, 1977, or 1978 (Dragon, Snake, Horse) - Ritsu

1978 or 1979 (Horse or Sheep) - Akito

1980 (Monkey) - Kagura

1981 or 1982 (Rooster or Dog) - Rin

1982 (Dog) - Arisa, Tohru, Yuki

1982 or 1983 (Dog or Pig) - Saki

1983 (Pig) - Kyo, Haru

1984 (Rat) - Momiji

1987 (Rabbit) - Kisa, Hiro

I go into tiresome detail below the fold:

First of all, some base principles. Chinese zodiac years in Japan do not follow the lunar new year (typically in late January or February), but instead the calendar year. In Japan, December 31, 2019 was the last day of the year of the pig, January 1, 2020 was the first day of the year of the rat, whereas the year of the rat was not recognized in China until January 25, 2020.

Second, the Japanese school system: the school year starts in the beginning of April. Young children start first grade the year that they are six on April 1st. Thus, the first grade students that started in April 2020 will have been born from April 2013 through March 2014. Elementary school lasts six years. The kids start middle school when they turn twelve, then high school when they turn 15. By the time they graduate from high school, they will have all turned 18 (there can be exceptions, and one of those is applicable to this discussion, so stay tuned).

So: the Mabudachi trio. They were in the same school year together, and they were all born in the year 1971. We know this because Tohru mentions that Hatori is 27 years old in spring 1999, while Shigure is 28 in fall of 1999. According to the 2001 character book, Hatori is a Cancer, Shigure a Scorpio, and Ayame a Sagittarius. So, Hatori was born June/July 1971, Shigure October/November, and Ayame November/December. They are all year of the pig, they started elementary school in April 1978 and graduated high school in March 1990.

Kureno: tells Uo he’s 26 years old in the summer of 1999: he’s either born in the early part of 1973 or the later part of 1972. I prefer to assume the former. Kureno had not been introduced by the time the character book had been published, so we don’t know his western zodiac sign.

Ritsu: The character we know the least about, and that includes age. All we know is that they’re several years younger than their four older cousins, and they’re older that Akito, who is the series character they are most similar in age to. Unhelpfully, their western zodiac sign is Capricorn, meaning they could be born in December or January. Based on relative ages, I think the likeliest birth years for Ritsu are December 1976/January 1977, but they might be year younger than that.

Akito: While Akito’s exact age is not given, we know that they’re between Ritsu and Kagura in age. Being born in 1978 would make them 20 at the start of the series, and I think it is implied that Akito is legally an adult, which was 20 years ol at the time the series was published (legal adulthood is now 18 in Japan). Akito is a Cancer, so approximately June/July 1978.

Kagura is said by Yuki to be two years older than them. She’s a Cancer as well, so she was born June/July 1980.

Rin is the other zodiac member who had not been introduced at the time of the character book, so we don’t have a western sign for her, either. We do have a school year, however: she’s one year ahead of Tohru & co. (Kagura mentions accepting Rin’s graduation certificate on her behalf). Rin was thus born sometime from April 1981 through March 1982.

That brings us to Tohru, Yuki, Kyo, Arisa and Saki. Tohru mentions in the very first chapter that she’s year of the dog. She’s also a Taurus, so she was born in Late April or early May 1982.Yuki is a Virgo, so his birthday is late August or early September 1982. Yuki is said to be 10 years younger than Ayame--given that Yuki’s birthday is earlier in the year, that means Ayame would indeed have been 10 when Yuki was born, turning 11 a couple of months later.. Kyo (as mentioned in a 4koma comic published near the start of the series) is year of the pig. As he’s Capricorn, that means his birthday is early January 1983, thus making him the only character whose birthday we can narrow down to one month in one year.

Now Saki and Arisa represent a puzzle for us. First of all, Arisa is an Aquarius, which means a January/February birthdate. Given that she’s in the same school year as her friends, that would imply being born in January/February 1983. However, that contradicts one piece of information. When she finds out, in the summer of 1999, that Kureno is 26, she thinks “nine years age difference,” implying she is seventeen at the time, rather than the sixteen she would be if she were born in 1983. But let’s not forget that Arisa was a delinquent. It’s a very plausible assumption that Arisa could have been held back a year at some point because of her spotty school performance. So, I choose to go with the assumption that Arisa was born in January/February 1982, making her the oldest of her friends instead of the youngest. Finally, there’s Saki, who is an Aries, meaning that her birthdate in in March or April. And that’s when the school cutoff date is. So, she’s either March 1983 or April 1982. I choose to believe the latter simply for the sake of probability: Aries has more April days than March days. So, by my reckoning, the birth order of the 1-D kids are: Arisa first, then Saki, Tohru, Yuki, with Kyo being the baby of the group.

Haru and Momiji are one year behind Tohru and company in school. Haru is yet another Cancer, meaning he was born in June/July 1983. Momiji is a Pisces, so that puts him at February/March 1984.

Finally, the youngest two. Kisa is three years behind Momij and Haru in school. Like Momiji, she’s also a Pisces, meaning she was born in February/March 1987. Hiro, a Leo, is only five months younger being born in July/August 1987, but since that’s after the April cutoff date, he’s one year behind her in school.

Is some of this information incorrect? Almost definitely--I’ve been refining my character age list for a long time, revising it as find new data. And if the western zodiac signs are invalid, then most of this information is even more worthless than appears at first glance.

But it’s been fun putting it together. I welcome other researchers to make discoveries that others have so far missed.

[janiedean]

Hi Lavi, I'm currently curing out a summerheat caused fever so pease bear with me: Since I'm reading ADWD again, I speculate Jon and Dany are going to dave the world from the Long night but at different ends of the world. Jon in the North, Dany from Asshai. Latter because I'm hung up on the wording "you need to go east" and "through the shadow" in her prophecy.

HMMMM I mean it wouldn't be a bad idea and honestly I would like that but like counting that I am the last person that'll give decent answers when it comes to dany bc again I don't remember 70% of her chapters, I think that the likeliest thing here is

she gets the khalasar back etc etc while jonc/aegon take king's landing with varys opening the doors for them like it happened in the first dance

she goes back to mereen to settle things and tyrion is there (prob he already managed to find barristan and get him to let him help or smth), they ally and he tells her about aegon/jonc and then news about KL arrives

she hears abt aegon taking KL and goes like WAIT WHAT THERE'S ANOTHER ONE cue **madness** moment where she loses her shit bc like she'll see him as a pretender

battle of KL happens she goes close to burning it all down but doesn't eventually aegon either dies or is dethroned I hope jonc doesn't die with him and that he cuts off his finger but anyway

let's also add that euron is somewhere nearby along with the whole victarion has the horn thing blah blah so no way she's having it easy

at the same time shit goes down at the wall and jon comes back to life in a more sensed way than in the show I mean most likely he spends time warged into ghost before melisandre figures that shit out

I'm speculating that poor shireen might get sacrificed while stannis takes wf because like hell it happens like in the show but WHATEVER

tldr jon comes back to life everyone realizes he's azor ahai also at that point DID WE ALL FORGET THAT THERE'S FUCKING HOWLAND REED WITH ROBB'S WILL TRAVELING AROUND THE DAMNED NORTH SINCE ASOS because if he doesn't show up with the legitimization plus oh hey jon wanna hear what happened in the tower of joy no because maaaaybe you should so r+l=j goes out in the open

(the reader probs found out through bran having visions before then but that's me speculating)

so like jon goes from hey I was dead to wait a fucking moment my name is targaryen and I also am legitimized and kitn what the hell

let's also remember that all the northern conspiracy lords still recognize robb as their king sooooooo like.. the s6 finale? that's where it would happen

(at that point davos has supposedly gotten rickon so I think jon would be more like I'LL BE A REGENT FOR MY BROTHER rather than KIIINGINTHENOOORTH but)

(honestly I don't expect stannis to survive wow but I hope he has a talk with brienne before he dies but anyway I'm losing my track)

at that point most likely the dead ppl are showing up and dany would have gotten the news in KL except that at that point maybe following her run-in with euron she realized that the world is about to get fucked so she goes to the wall dragons and all

(this also implies that stannis takes wf and that sansa shows up with the vale army with jaime brienne and sandor coming along at some point but nvm)

and like I would bet money on jon and dany meeting in the north or close to it just when he has the kitn title but the dead are coming or they know they are and they need to have a truce or smth and then whatever goes on in ados goes on and he leaves us with the OH WINTER HAS TRULY COME NOW Y'ALL ARE FUCKED cliffhanger

like idt dany will be in essos by the time wow rolls by but I also don't think she'd leave mereeen to DAARIO or whatever but honestly I'm stumped on what would happen there bc who the fuck remembers the politics from the dany adwd chapters, but like if dany stays in essos throughout ados it's kind of a letdown aaaalso they need the dragons to kill the zombies so she def has to get to westeros but like that's where I am after what ten years of speculating sssooo take it the way it is XD

[naturecpw]

How to Build a Life There Are Two Kinds of Happy People

Some of us strive for a virtuous life. Others strive for a pleasant one. We could all use a better balance. Arthur C. Brooks  January 28, 2021

One person touches the needles of a cactus while another smells the cactus flowers.   JAN BUCHCZIK

“How to Build a Life” is a weekly column by Arthur Brooks, tackling questions of meaning and happiness.

These days, we are offered a dizzying variety of secrets to happiness. Some are ways of life: Give to others; practice gratitude. Others are minor hacks: Eat kale; play a board game. Some are simply an effort to make a buck.

I have found that most of the serious approaches to happiness can be mapped onto two ancient traditions, promoted by the Greek philosophers Epicurus and Epictetus. In a nutshell, they focus on enjoyment and virtue, respectively. Individuals typically gravitate toward one style or the other, and many major philosophies have followed one path or the other for about two millennia. Understanding where you sit between the two can tell you a lot about yourself—including your happiness weak points—and help you create strategies for a more balanced approach to life.

Epicurus (341–270 B.C.) led an eponymous school of thought—Epicureanism—that believed a happy life requires two things: ataraxia (freedom from mental disturbance) and aponia (the absence of physical pain). His philosophy might be characterized as “If it is scary or painful, work to avoid it.” Epicureans see discomfort as generally negative, and thus the elimination of threats and problems as the key to a happier life. Don’t get the impression that I am saying they are lazy or unmotivated—quite the contrary, in many cases. But they don’t see enduring fear and pain as inherently necessary or beneficial, and they focus instead on enjoying life.

Epictetus (c. 50–c. 135 A.D.) was one of the most prominent Stoic philosophers, who believed happiness comes from finding life’s purpose, accepting one’s fate, and behaving morally regardless of the personal cost. His philosophy could be summarized as, “Grow a spine and do your duty.” People who follow a Stoic style see happiness as something earned through a good deal of sacrifice. Not surprisingly, Stoics are generally hard workers who live for the future and are willing to incur substantial personal cost to meet their life’s purpose (as they see it) without much complaining. They see the key to happiness as working through pain and fear, not actively avoiding them.

Epicureans and Stoics can coexist, and even cohabitate (my wife and I have such a mixed marriage). But in my experience, Stoics and Epicureans tend to look down on one another, and appear to have been doing so for about as long as both philosophies have existed. The 3rd-century biographer Diogenes Laërtius wrote that “Epictetus calls [Epicurus a] preacher of effeminacy and showers abuse on him.” While there’s no historical record of it, I can easily imagine Epicurus responding to Epictetus, “You totally need to chill out.”

For roughly 2,000 years, philosophers have asked which approach leads to greater happiness and a better life. My purpose here is different. Both views have virtues and weaknesses. I want to know what each of us, given our natural tendency toward one of the approaches, can learn and adopt from the other.

For Epicurus, unhappiness came from negative thoughts, including needless guilt, fear of things we can’t control, and a focus on the inevitable unpleasant parts of life. The solution was to banish them from the mind. To this end, he proposed a “four-part cure”: Don’t fear God; don’t worry about death; what is good is easy to get (by lowering our expectations for what we need to be happy); what is terrible is easy to endure (by concentrating on pleasant things even in the midst of suffering). This is made all the easier when we surround ourselves with friendly people in a peaceful environment.

Epicurus promoted hedonia, from which we derive the word hedonism. However, he would not have recognized our current usage of the term. The secret to banishing negative thoughts, according to Epicurus, is not mindless debauchery—despite the baseless rumors that he led wild parties and orgies, he taught that thoughtlessly grabbing easy worldly pleasures is a mistake, because ultimately they don’t satisfy. Instead, reason was Epicurus’s best weapon against the blues. For example, here is the mantra he suggests we tell ourselves when the fear of death strikes: “Death does not concern us, because as long as we exist, death is not here. And when it does come, we no longer exist.”

In contrast to hedonia, the Stoic approach is known as eudaimonia, which might be defined as a life devoted to our greatest potential in service of our highest ideals. Stoicism is characterized by the principles of naturalism and moralism—changing the things we can to make life better while also accepting the things we can’t change. (The “Serenity Prayer” is very Stoic.) “Don’t demand that things happen as you wish,” Epictetus wrote in The Enchiridion, “but wish that they happen as they do happen, and you will go on well.”

Moralism is the principle that moral virtue is to be defined and followed for its own sake. “Tell yourself, first of all, what kind of man you want to be,” Epictetus wrote in his Discourses, “and then go ahead with what you are doing.” In other words, create a code of virtuous conduct for yourself and live by it, with no loopholes for convenience.

Epicureans and Stoics are encouraged to focus their attention on different aspects of life—and death. Epicurus’s philosophy suggested that we should think intently about happiness, while for Stoics, the paradox of happiness is that to attain it, we must forget about it; with luck, happiness will come as we pursue life’s purpose. Meanwhile, Epicurus encourages us to disregard death while we are alive, and Epictetus insists that we confront it and ponder it regularly, much like the maranasati meditation in Buddhism, in which monks contemplate their own deaths and stages of decay.

No research to date asks why some people are naturally more Epicurean and others more Stoic. No doubt there is a genetic component, given the large percentage of personality that sits encoded somewhere in our DNA. But nurture likely also plays a role: In one study, a scholar found that parents who modeled and endorsed eudaimonia had kids who engaged in eudaimonic pursuits. Meanwhile, parents who role-modeled hedonia had kids who grew up to derive pleasure primarily from this model. The implication is pretty clear: If you want children who principally pursue duty and honor, do so yourself. If instead you strive to achieve happiness by minimizing pain, your kids probably will too.

People have argued for centuries about which approach is better for happiness, but they largely talk past one another. In truth, each pursues different aspects of happiness: Epicurus’s style brings pleasure and enjoyment; Epictetus’s method delivers meaning and purpose. As happiness scholars note, a good blend of these things is likeliest to deliver a truly happy life. Too much of one—a life of trivial enjoyment or one of grim determination—will not produce a life well lived, as most of us see it.

The big question is, therefore, how people can manufacture a good blend in their lives between the two approaches. Here are three ideas.

1. Know thyself.

This expression is one of the Delphic maxims, carved into the pronaos of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi in ancient Greece. It acknowledges the fundamental truth that we can’t make forward progress in life if we don’t know where we are situated right now. Answering the question thus starts with an informal but honest answer to this question: When my mood is low, do I naturally look to increase my level of pleasure and enjoyment, or do I focus on meaning and purpose in my life? The former is a sign that you tend toward being an Epicurean, the latter that you are more of a Stoic.

More scientifically, several research-based tools to judge Epicurean or Stoic tendencies have been developed. For example, scholars fielded a survey in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that helps uncover hedonistic tendencies. The “Meaning in Life Questionnaire” from the University of Pennsylvania’s Authentic Happiness Questionnaire Center arguably measures eudaimonic tendencies quite well. (On this test, I learned that I am near the top of the population in my efforts to search for meaning in life, but below average in having found it.)

2. Beef up the other side.

The key to blending enjoyment and meaning is not to suppress what you have, but to bolster what you lack. Once you have situated yourself on the spectrum, you can formulate a strategy to strengthen the discipline you are missing (assuming that you’re not in the middle already).

At the end of each day, you might examine the events you experienced, and ask yourself harmonizing questions. For example:

   Did this event bring me enjoyment? Did it also bring me meaning?    Did this make me feel afraid? Did I learn something from this fear that will lead to less fear in the future?    Did this serve my interests? Did it serve the interest of others?

Make resolutions that attempt to achieve yes-yes combinations to these questions.

You can also engage in concrete exercises that remediate your weakness. Stoics, for example, might program regular weekends away with friends, leaving all work at home. Meanwhile, Epicureans might do something difficult and strenuous like training for a marathon. Stoics should read this column about happiness and discuss it during their weekends away. Epicureans should spend their running time pondering the reality and meaning of death. 3. Build a happiness portfolio that uses both approaches.

Finally, it is important to pursue life goals in which each happiness approach reinforces the other. That portfolio is simple, and I have written about it before: Make sure your life includes faith, family, friendship, and work in which you earn your success and serve others. Each of these elements flexes both the Stoic and the Epicurean muscles: All four require that we be fully present in an Epicurean sense and that we also work hard and adhere to strong commitments in a Stoic sense.

The deeper point in all this is an ancient one: A balanced approach to happiness in life is best. In his essay “The Natural History of Intellect,” Ralph Waldo Emerson put it concisely: “Characters and talents are complemental and suppletory. The world stands by balanced antagonisms.”

Read: The three equations for a happy life, even during a pandemic

That’s easier said than done, of course. Whether Epicurean or Stoic, we always want to double down on what comes naturally to us. But that is the road to excess, which ultimately leads us away from well-being. “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy,” goes the old proverb. In 1825, the novelist Maria Edgeworth added a second line: “All play and no work makes Jack a mere toy.” Just so.

So to all you Stoics: Take the night off. And to all you Epicureans: Time to get back to work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/01/how-balance-hard-work-and-pleasure-happiness/617847/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Read: Sit with your negative emotions, don’t push them away

Read: Fear can make you a better person

Read: Preparing your mind for uncertain times

Read: What good is thinking about death?

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/01/how-balance-hard-work-and-pleasure-happiness/617847/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[lligkv]

who on this planet gets what they deserve?

I’m sure there are profitable ways to read a work of fiction against its basis in life. I’m not sure Matt Gallagher’s recent piece about Nico Walker’s 2018 novel Cherry, which just got made into a movie, is one of them.

The article is essentially a string of portentous questions and insinuations from Gallagher, as he tries to puzzle out his unease at both the publicity the novel and the movie have gotten and the money Walker has made, all in this sort of hard-boiled, staccato prose (e.g., “Erasure doesn’t have to be an act. It can be a process too. Some crimes are more fashionable than others”).

I don’t entirely fault Gallagher for his clumsiness; his article is a sincere attempt to grapple with a difficult question—the question of what rights the people who writers write about have either to profit from that writing or to have their own stories told and their own pain recognized. But where Gallagher might have offered a verdict on any of these issues, he doesn’t. And while it can be useful to express one’s unease, in a piece in a major paper, one expects there to be a clear indictment and an alternative, a call to some kind of action; ruminations with no clear outcome become especially unsatisfying.

The thrusts of the piece, as far as one can tell, seem to be:

Rosa Foster—one of the bank tellers Walker threatened when he was robbing banks to fund his heroin addiction, which is the story dramatized in Cherry—has never been asked permission for or compensated for her portrayal in the novel or the movie. As such, her victimhood has been monetized without her consent.

Over the years, Walker has not given consistent answers when he’s asked how much truth is in his novel—which, it seems, could have helped us answer how much compensation Foster might be entitled to, as someone Walker harmed.

The producers involved in acquiring Walker’s life rights made a lot of money off Walker’s story and Foster’s—and, the implication seems to be, as figures who aren’t themselves involved in the story and so don’t have any claim to it, they’re the likeliest figures to issue compensation to Foster and others like her, if those people are in fact entitled to it, and if the precise amount could be determined.

To bolster his case, Gallagher reaches for “Son of Sam” laws, arguing that works of fiction could be considered attempts to profit from crimes just as, say, the Netflix documentary Inventing Anna was recently ruled to be for the fake heiress and grifter Anna Delvey. Of course, as Gallagher observes, Son of Sam laws typically kick in when the harm done is physical. Delvey’s stealing things from people is a harm you can quantify with firm numbers; the psychological harm Walker might’ve done to the tellers is harder to quantify.

I’m also not sure how you’d act on Gallagher’s implied argument that publishing execs and movie people shouldn’t make money from adapting Cherry. Especially considering, just on a mean legal level, the way profits from a movie would go to the film company—the whole company at that, and not just directly into the pockets of the specific people who green-lit the project. But also because fiction is an echo from life, and all fictions are open to monetization, particularly in the world we live in. And for anything that can be monetized in a marketplace, it’s always a question of who gets to take that opportunity, and who manages to do it first.

Late in his article, Gallagher reports what Walker himself had to say about the robberies when Gallagher pressed him on what he might owe for the harms he might have done:

As long as no one literally eats me, I could not care less about how I am perceived. There was a time when I feel short of what I wanted of myself, and so that is why I say that I have not lived well. As for the standards of the world at large, they are too inconsistent and absurd to be credited.

Whose position has more integrity? Gallagher’s attempt to articulate where the line between art and life must be, and whether and what harms in the former can and ought to be recompensed in the latter? Or Walker’s apparent decision to just live in our compromised world as he finds it—making his own choices, seemingly aware there’s no universally comfortable or ethical way to live? Both choices have their costs. But Gallagher’s desire seems to depend on standards no one would know how to create; on a math for rights or deserts that no one can yet do.

Gallagher’s definition of “victim” is also a bit selective, in a way Walker appears to discern. He seems to want to focus on the bank robberies, and specifically the robbery at the U.S. Bank branch that involved Rosa Foster; he invokes Walker’s war experience only as it’s relevant to recognizing what Walker must have been through, and when he asks Walker whether he feels the tellers deserve compensation, he labels Walker’s response—“I wonder why you didn’t ask this question about the Iraqis”—as a “pithy zinger,” a comment on “the ethical maze of writing about war,” and ultimately, a “dodge.” But it’s not a dodge. And it’s a comment on the ethical maze not of writing about war, but of living in capitalism, or rather, living at all; it’s indicative of a moral position that Gallagher refuses to recognize, much less honor. After all, why does Gallagher focus on Rosa Foster and not the Iraqis, whose victimhood has also been monetized without their consent, at whom Walker might also have pointed a gun? Obviously, on a surface level, moral responsibility to victims of a war between nations is a different matter than adjudicating compensation in the adaptation of one soldier’s story. But what Walker seems to want Gallagher to recognize is this: who on this planet gets what they deserve?

Often, a sort of diffidence or flatness comes off in a lot of Walker’s writing and his general presence. Viewed through one lens, it’s precisely the sort of burned-out, hard-bitten, cynical cool that might lead one to think what Walker does is an act, put-on in the same way that Jack Henry Abbott—another convict-turned-writer to whom Gallagher compares Walker in the piece—put on the act of a literary convict to win praise from the likes of Norman Mailer. It’s also the affect of someone who’s deeply familiar with the world’s wrongs—and who was once perhaps struck by them, but has long since been inured to them. There’s probably something to admire in the fact that Gallagher doesn’t show the same spirit. But it’s also a little frustrating. Obtuse.

I sympathize with Gallagher’s desire to want something more fair than the system we’ve got—a way of making art that would allow profit to redound to Rosa Foster as well as Nico Walker. I’m not sure we’d be able to get it. And as a writer—an aspiring one, at any rate—I’m with Walker in the end. Art is not real life, for all it’s imbricated in life, thanks to the economies we’ve built around book sales and movie adaptations. It’s galling to think profits in this world will always be unfair, considering how gross and inflated the latter economy in particular tends to be and the kinds of people who often end up walking away with the money it generates. But the ideas of right and wrong that obtain in the economy or in the legal sphere can’t really be enforced in the sphere of art—which will always involve violations of someone’s boundaries or someone’s rights, because the stuff from which art is made is always shared experience, to which we must compete for claims. And you come off as a little foolish or obtuse if you try.

[ganymedesclock]

Honestly just... as small of a slice as the demo is, Silksong really is quite illuminating in showing us a different angle on Hornet.

In Hollow Knight, we kind of see her from the outside, and most of that is her strength and confidence and resolve, and these things are not lies. It’s very telling and a very sentimental moment when Hornet opens to Ghost about her grief and the loss of her mother, but even then, she solemnly asks for some time alone, to conclude that in private.

Silksong’s showing us a glimpse of Hornet who’s really, only just holding herself together. She’s not a stoic badass who’s totally handling this dangerous environment no problem, she’s just the type to keep gritting her teeth and soldiering forwards, tying off her injuries as she goes so they don’t slow her down.

It’s not like this is totally unforeshadowed in Hollow Knight- she goes into the Black Egg Temple to help you even admitting that it would start draining her if she went in, and in the worst ending (Sealed Siblings) she’s going to die there.

And it’s not that Hornet’s a sad soft baby being crushed by the big mean world. She is strong and resourceful. That in the Moss Grotto section of the demo she just picks herself up from being quite badly hurt, stitches up her wounds and soldiers through an entire area and conquers a boss is a big deal. Her tools system where she’s gathering and repairing and maintaining her own arsenal, harvesting resources from her enemies, gives her a very different sense than Ghost.

It’s part of something I really appreciate that HK does, for all of how it’s a very difficult game and how games of this type can often attract this attitude of, oh we’re Real Tough Gamers Now, certified badasses who are The Best- in that HK frequently critically asks you what’s the price of power. Not that it’s exclusively bad or stupid, but, that honing strength always comes at some kind of expense. Ghost is powerful and self-sufficient; they were an abandoned child soldier. Hornet, likewise, appears to have been functionally orphaned at a young age; she isn’t merely strong and self-sufficient, but operates with the kind of wariness of someone who’s completely unused to the idea that anyone would hesitate to cut her down.

That’s not to say that those who are powerful will never be happy, because we see plenty otherwise, but that power alone does not buy happiness, and shouldn’t be carelessly invested in because it will fix your problems. Hornet is powerful, but she’s also in a rotten situation and it’s clear she’s been there for long enough that she’s used to relying on power because she doesn’t have a lot else to fall back on, which I think is going to make her interpersonal interactions really interesting, because like...

In HK, we can breeze right past Elderbug if we want to. Most won’t, but stopping to listen to him has to be our call as a player.

With Silksong, at least in the demo, Hornet collapses after spotting the Church Keeper. This is an interaction we can’t miss, and it’s one where Hornet is forced to be completely vulnerable before a stranger. It’s clear she’s not really prepared to do that, given her obvious “back off” body language right before it, but she’s running on fumes at that point.

And we know it doesn’t end horribly; the Church Keeper is described as a mentor figure to Hornet, and we see her seemingly teaching Hornet a song in the reveal trailer. It seems very likely to me that the ‘tutorial’ segment in the Moss Grotto is going to be appended by Hornet collapsing in front of the Church Keeper and the latter nursing her back to health, giving her access to the modestly more robust moveset we see in the Deep Docks part of the trailer.

So, in a relationship that is already explained as a teaching one, it seems the first lesson Hornet’s going to learn here is being able to accept vulnerability and others’ help. That’s going to be a big deal, since this is after Hollow Knight, and if we presume the likeliest ending that this is based off of is Dream No More, then... after bonding a great deal with Ghost, Hornet was left alone when Ghost ascended/ returned to the void with their sibling. If it’s Embrace the Void, she’d also have Hollow there, but it’d appear she was torn away from them when she was kidnapped by the cult.

And I, for one, am Totally Ready to be emotionally destroyed by Hornet Gets A Grandma.

[tyrantasaur]

g i l d e d ◇ s p i r i t s

It was well into the afternoon when Pritchard entered Wesley’s bedroom to begin his daily routine. It seemed to Wesley, awakened violently by the loud clacking of metal on metal as the valet tore open the curtains to let the sun stab Wesley right in his reddened eyes. It had been another extremely late night, and if he was honest he could not quite remember the latter part of it. He was pretty sure there was a certain sadistically gleeful bent to the silent valet’s smile this morning. 

“Do you know, I’m still quite half-under, man. Stop enjoying this.” He squinted at Pritchard, who was standing with the window just at his back. “Evil old goat,” Wesley grumbled to himself, cursing Pritchard under his breath. “Damnit man, hand me the potion.: He held his head as it felt like it was rattling about on his neck. Pritchard stood, not moving. “Please,” he ground out through gritted teeth, prompting his cold-hearted valet to hand him a small vial. He downed the shot of thin amber potion in one go, thankful that he didn’t have to live like the poor mortals who would have to just struggle through their day.

It took but a few moments before his head cleared, and he felt as though he’d been abed before 10 PM. He fluffed up his pillows and leaned back, awaiting the breakfast tray that Prichard placed over his lap. The sunlight falling on his face felt peaceful, now, and he directed his man to open the window and let in the cool breeze, the ambient sounds of the city, and the smell of smoke and freshly mown grass. It was a scent so particular to the city that it didn’t even phase him anymore. Luckily his own estate had enough greenery that it wasn’t filled with soot and smoke like other parts of the city. Just enough to remind one that they were in an oasis surrounded by metal and smoke. Some didn’t care much for it, but his life wasn’t half bad, and he lived for the hustle and bustle. Besides, it was really good for business.

After enjoying his bruncheon of toast, eggs, bacon, and coffee, Wesley was soon up and dressed for the rest of the day. It was not out of his regular routine for him to be up late, as the work of a supernatural investigator really was much more active at night. He was between cases at the moment, though that didn’t much matter to him.

He spent most of the afternoon and evening puttering around in his workshop; he had a project that he’d been working on for the better part of the past year, but he’d been having difficulty tracking down someone with the particular skills he needed to help him with the magical aspects. His powers were strong and his knowledge might be broad, but he wasn’t an expert in many fields. So far he’d been having trouble with anyone who was powerful or clever enough. Winnifred kept silent vigil, watching what he was working on and offering up rare bits of advice for new things to try. It was proving to be an extremely frustrating project, and finally he tossed down his tools with a shout, put everything into a box and shoved it onto the storage shelf, then swept out of the room. 

Winnifred trailed behind him, silent as ever, although she slammed the door behind him in empathetic commiseration. He wasn’t surprised by the small cold hand on his shoulder or the whisper as she faded off to wherever her ghostly sensibilities drew her. 

------------------------------------------

“Laurie!” Wesley stood, taking three long strides to meet his friend who had been led into the drawing room by Pritchard, who bowed himself off.

“Wes, old man, thank you for that vile potion you sent over yesterday. It always does wonders; what a blow, eh? Ah....Winnie,” he grinned unabashedly as though he hadn’t just spoken roughly in front of the young woman. “Forgive me, old gel?”

She graciously held out her hand, draped on the chaise longue in the same outfit she always wore, her hair always perfectly coiffed. Lawrence stepped forward and held his hand just under hers, going through the motions of kissing the ethereal hand. She smiled, her lips parting in a silent laugh at his dramatic expression of apology.

“You know, I’ve been thinking about that absolute mess we saw at the Montgomerys the other night,” Wesley stood by the writing desk at the window, fiddling with some papers. He picked them up but stared off into nothing and set them back down again. He was frowning out the window, his thoughts on what had occurred. 

“I’ve had a case I think is likely related to that fracas with the maidservant. Looks like a satyr getting a little too bold.” He drew a sharp breath. “I think I may need to find that woman and see if she knows anything. I’d like to know why it was drawn to that house in particular. It doesn’t seem to be targeting the wealthy manors,” he chewed absently on his lower lip. “What do you think?”

Lawrence sat down opposite Winnifred, and lit himself a cigarette, arm thrown over the back of the sofa. He leaned his head back to look up at the ceiling, watching the smoke blown out through his nose. “I think I was altogether a little too zozzed to really remember if I noticed anything in particular. I mean, Frakes was there and you know he’s a bit of the gift, so does that deb and her daddy, you know, the ah…” he glanced over at Winnifred. “Er, Jack and his girl Millie.”

“Well,” Wesley let the papers drop back down onto the desk. He walked over to the gilded cart filled with crystal decanters of various shapes filled with different colored liquids. Pouring out a glass for himself and Laurie, he dropped down onto the cushion beside his friend, and took up the same pose, staring at the ceiling.

------------------------------------------

Was it guilt or simply being thorough? Wesley wasn’t sure why he kept getting a nagging feeling that he should be tracking down the maid who had encountered the work of the satyr. It was not often that he felt any sort of overwhelming need to play the knight in shining armour, and he was fairly certain that wasn’t about to start now. Currently sitting in the parlor with Vivan Montgomery, he sipped at the tea she’d poured. 

The reason he’d dropped in was not, as Vivian clearly believed, because of her irresistible charms and their important place in society; he was hoping to begin tracking the satyr from this spot. The traces were all muddied; there’d clearly been a few people or beings in the area with at least a touch of magic about them, and their paths overlapped. After a time the trace dissipated much like a smell, becoming more vague and foggy as time wore on. He could’ve cursed himself for waiting as many days as he had, but as he made his excuses and took his leave, he stood for a moment in pretense of fixing his tie. 

Focusing on a magical trace was as innate a skill as sensing a taste or scent, but it was often harder to place, or to match up with what caused it. It was more of a concept, a feeling or emotion or a memory of a little slice in time and place that served as the magical signature. Different people sensed magic in different ways, but every persons’ trace was unique. He could tell his own trace from the rest, of course; and Laurie’s, though the man didn’t have an ounce of magical skill in him he was still a Sensitive and quite knowledgeable about the theory and history of magics.

There were at least three other distinct traces. Sorting out which pieces belonged to which trace were the trickier part, but you could piece them together like a puzzle as they just fit the scene they evoked. There was the feeling of lying in the tall grass, dappled sunlight warming your skin, the taste of honeyed wine on your lips; it had melted into the feeling of a familiar old chair and the particular scent of lignin, and the particular cozy feeling one gets when a rainy day lets you laze about without guilt; the scent of a crisp breeze, the childish satisfaction of milk and a plate of cookies, and the softly sad feeling of reliving a cherished memory. A summer’s day, reading in his library, and a stroll down memory lane. Out of the three of them, the summer’s day seemed the likeliest, given the satyr’s origins.

Walking along the sidewalk, he was glad for the bright sun, the light breeze, and the energy that a hearty breakfast had given him. He’d been up early today, unusually so for him, but he’d taken a potion the night before and had slept like the dead. Sometimes he wondered if mortals felt all the spirits that lived in his house; there certainly were a number. Those departed who could not yet move on, but who had become displaced when their homes were demolished, or the new occupants were a little too sensitive. Even in death people weren’t immune to homelessness. Sad, really. He wished there were more who studied the necromantic arts, but there was a certain distaste many had to speaking with the dead. It was hard work, and one of the more dangerous fields of magic. It took a lot of discipline, hard work, courage, and unfortunately a certain amount of empathy. It was not generally a lucrative line of work, given that most dead didn’t have any wealth lying about, but it was still important work. 

The trace that reminded him of autumn in his childhood kept coming up. He wondered if there was someone who had been at the party, or that lived nearby, who had caught the attention of the satyr. He pitied the person, as they were quite the nuisance, especially for women. Lusty capricious little beggars, they were not exceptionally violent but could turn aggressive. Magical creatures were not as they were often portrayed in stories; the Greeks had it most to right, some good some wicked and mostly a mix between the two. Temperamental and given to dramatic impulses, they could be difficult when cross and a hassle when they took a shine to you. 

The path took him more into the less posh parts of town, and he frowned at the small cluster of fairies following the milkman’s cart, but kept going. It looped through various neighborhoods until it hit a gentlemen’s club. Wesley had no compunctions about visiting the house of ill repute, but it had taken considerable work to calm down the inhabitants enough to get any information out of them. The madam had not known what to believe, but one of her girls had enough gifts to see the creature. It was getting bold, and it was about time to send it back to the plane to which it belonged.

A wave of nostalgia washed over him, and he realized that the neighborhoods through which he had been tramping were filled with the second trace at various stages of strength. It was getting to be clearer as he drew closer to the department store. Intrigued, he wondered who it could be and what role they played with the satyr. He followed the trace through the store, and he saw fairies flitting between the jewelry cases and home goods, attracted to everything that glittered. They cast wary looks at him as he passed, but resumed their ogling as he passed them by.

Pretending to examine a pair of leather gloves, he tried to focus on where the concentration of the magic was centered. Fairies liked transformative, air and water elemental, divinatory and combat magics, so it made sense that they would have followed this mage, as there was the flavor of some of those magicks to their trace. He felt it up ahead and looked up to see the perfume counter. He did a double take, staring keenly at the young woman at the counter. She wasn’t dressed like the usual middle and upper classes that shopped at the department store, nor was she dressed as one of the counter girls. A friend, perhaps, stealing a few moments with their friend? Window shopping? Extravagant purchase with hoarded savings?

No, there was something familiar, and he tried to put it in perspective. Someone who would have been near the Montgomerys. If she was in that part of uptown and wasn’t incredibly uptown herself, it was more likely that she’d be a servant at one of the houses. 

As he picked up a different pair and tried them on, he could have hit himself, and cursed himself for a blockhead. The maid that had been dismissed, that was obviously who she must be. A second glance couldn’t quite confirm it; she wasn’t wearing her uniform anymore, and he honestly could not recall what the woman had looked like, as he wasn’t generally in the practice of paying attention to the staff at a party. He was incredibly detail oriented, but only when it related to his work; otherwise, he was wholeheartedly occupied with himself.

Once she left, he purchased a pair of driving gloves and meandered over to the perfume counter. “I need a gift for an aunt of mine. Something matronly and a bit out of fashion, you know the type.” The woman asked him a few questions to help identify the best scent, and wrapped it up for him. “The girl that was just here a moment ago, do you know her?”

The woman behind the counter seemed confused and a bit reticent, but she acknowledged that she knew the person about whom he spoke. “Ah, she worked for the Montgomery’s, did she not? I hate to gossip,” he lied convincingly. “But the old biddy is in a desperate situation. My aunt, you see, not your friend. Anyway, if she can stand the tyrannical rule of a mistress again, give her my card? Berries,” he grinned as she took his card.

[eurosong]

Good evening, folks, and welcome to today’s statistical blog, where we’ll be taking our first look at the odds of qualifying after the producers of this year’s Eurovision decided where to put the songs in the semi-final. If anyone had a doubt at the potency of starting position, they should look at some of the extreme changes in betting that have happened only on the past day or two after this was revealed. We’ll take a look at the songs currently predicted to qualify, and how we think the running order influences odds changes.

Near-certain qualifiers: The idea of SF1 being rather more wide open than SF2 is backed up by the current odds. SF1 has only two songs with 85% qualification odds or better - Greece and Cyprus, who not coïncidentally have decent spots in the running order. Meanwhile, SF2 still has half of its qualification spots notionally tied up - Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands and Switzerland, all either in plum spots historically or given a favourable juxtaposition amongst other songs, were there already, but they’re joined by a strongly climbing Azerbaijan, who gain betters’ confidence and jump almost 10% in qualification probability with their show-closing status.

Likely qualifiers: This is a very crowded pack in SF1, with 6 countries who have mostly seen their qualification odds weaken, most notably Belgium, Estonia and Czechia. Eliot had topped the bookies’ odds just a few days ago, but now finds himself only 5th most likely to qualify because of a massive drop in probability of 16.5%. His position in the semi surely isn’t bad, but perhaps betters had been thinking he’d get a nicer slot towards the end of the second half? Lake Malawi are the second biggest droppers of both semis at the minute, dropping almost 18% - 6th is usually a good starting position, but perhaps they see fellow likely qualifiers, Slovenia, potentially outshining them. They drop below Hungary, who, like Slovenia, only saw their qualification odds drop a little. The only country in this entire group whose odds didn’t worsen is Iceland - their qualification odds stay precisely the same, but because of other songs falling, they find themselves 3rd likeliest to qualify, compared to 6th a few days back. A great position between two songs that may well feel tame in comparison from Australia and Estonia may have helped maintain the spot.

In SF2, this group is almost comically tiny - just 3 countries - as it feels there’s confidence in the frontrunners performing strongly, but little else. Malta drops into this group and marginally out of the top 5, Norway drop modestly too - it’s never easy to precede a fan favourite like NL - and Armenia complete the group, the only ones to increase their odds within it, in no small part because of opening the semis.

The narrow qualifiers:  Two countries in each semi final are currently rated as narrowly qualifying. In SF1, it’s Portugal, whose qualification odds have dropped 10%, perhaps because of the risks of preceding new SF favourite, Greece, and Australia, whose odds also decreased a tad but who found themselves jumping up two spots anyway. In SF2, it’s a tale of two momenta: Denmark clings onto qualification despite dropping 8%, perhaps because of directly preceding Sweden, whilst Romania jumps into possible qualification from a previous 13th place - maybe it stands out more after contemplative Latvia and sweet Denmark. Analysis continues below!

Bubbling under: This category contains 6 countries, 3 in each semi, which have a 45-56% chance of qualifying and are seen as most likely to rise to the remaining qualification spots if songs directly above them take a tumble. In SF1, we have a big contrast between Poland and Serbia dropping in their odds, the latter even out of the top 10 as a result, whilst San Marino climbs high with the biggest odds increase of the lot, an almost 20% jump. In SF2, Macedonia and Albania modestly improve their odds, and are joined by a dramatically plunging Lithuania, who had been 9th but are now 13th, certainly influenced by being the most underwhelming part of the Malta-Russia sandwich.

Hope in the darkness: This is a small grouping of three countries whose qualification odds aren’t looking good, but for whom there is some hope as their odds have increased a little. Finland and Belarus have each seen a ~7% odds increase despite less than ideal starting positions. (Incidentally, there was a REAL oddity in the middle of yesterday when Like it was given a 97% chance of qualifying before crashing down again. Odds manipulation, patriotic betters, a glitch? Answers on a postcard!) In SF2, Austria could be forgotten after two up-tempo numbers, or could defy the predictors and stand out, especially if it closest its half - perhaps this is why it jumped up more than 10%.

It’s looking grim: Lastly, we have 5 countries who, quite frankly, it’s looking not so peachy for. In SF1, the bottom 2 shuffle about as Georgia surpasses Montenegro whose positioning as #2 has surely killed what little chance they had of qualifying stone cold dead. In SF2, Croatia and Moldova, preceding favourites from Malta and Switzerland, have seen their slim qualification hopes grown slimmer, whilst the most brutal drop of all has been that of Ireland, quite horribly put into #2 spot, making them drop 17.7%.

The next big influence on the booking odds will be the pre-parties. Unfortunately, a few acts like Bilal and Michela seem to have chickened out, but I’m sure we’ll see many other acts soar and plunge after them. All of these drastic changes just because of running order, though, make me reïterate for the hundredth time: how is it fair to give this much power to one (nowhere near impartial) person? It’s like if some big teams in the world cup faced only minnows on their path to the final, whilst others had a deliberately difficult route there. I sincerely hope, one day, for the return to random draw.