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jackoshadows · 5 months

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The Second Battle at Long Lake.

So it's been my theory for a while that there will be a Battle of the Bastards between Jon Snow Vs Ramsay Bolton in the books, just better written than the TV show. As with all such things, IMO, Benioff and Weiss just took outlines, added their own changes and gave us a badly mutilated and mangled plot that has no resemblance to what is happening in the books.

I also believe that Jon Snow and Rickon Stark are the two Stark siblings who unite first and combine forces against the Boltons. What forces, where and how?

So I came across this interesting and well researched theory which proposes that this battle will happen at Long Lake, except they think Manderly and his forces will ride in from the south at the very end - like the Vale army on the show - and rescue Jon and his army of Freefolk. I disagree there because the weather at the end of ADwD/start of TWoW/current timeline has made it almost impossible for a large host to suddenly appear from the south and surprise two fighting armies. And as we see in Melisandre I, ADwD, Long Lake has just started to freeze.

Some folks have also theorized in the comments for this particular speculation that this is why Stannis will burn Shireen - for the weather (Like on the show). Again, IMO it's doubtful that Stannis is involved in this battle between the Starks and the Boltons. I really do feel like it will be the Starks (Jon/Rickon) who will win back Winterfell and not Stannis.

My theory is that Manderly's large host is already at Last Hearth, battle ready, and that House Manderly and House Umber have been colluding on this for a while, from as far back as ACoK.

So how do Rickon Stark and Jon Snow get to Long Lake?

Rickon Stark.

So according to the recently leaked 2003/2004 outline for AFfC, it's clear that both Davos and Rickon's story changed significantly from what it originally was. Davos stayed with Stannis, probably meets Jon Snow at the Wall and is involved in fArya's rescue from Winterfell.

I speculate that in this version the Manderlys already have Rickon Stark. He and Osha were last headed towards White Harbor because Maester Luwin asks them to seek help there and there's some discrepancies in Wex's story. At some point this changed and GRRM introduced frigging unicorns into the picture, sending Rickon to Skagos - this whole new place with a new culture and needing new worldbuilding from where Davos has to go and get Rickon back. IMO, this was an unnecessary side diversion that keeps the story ballooning without an end but, oh well, this is how GRRM writes and why he is unable to finish the story now.

So Rickon is now in Skagos. I think Davos I and II in TWoW will be in Skagos and by Davos III they are back in Westeros in Karhold. We will see through a Davos POV how Sigorn and Alys Karstark meet her people in Karhold and everything is settled there. Alys Karstark will fully support a son of Ned Stark in Rickon Stark, the legal heir, and of course he has his direwolf, Shaggydog which confirms his identity.

From there I am theorizing that Davos, Rickon, Osha, some Skagosi supporting and traveling with Rickon and Thenn warriors representing house Karstark will travel to Last hearth, where there will already be assembled a large Manderly host.

[Note: With the traitor Karstarks detained by Stannis, we would be seeing a total reversal of the show with the Umbers and Karstarks fighting for Rickon Stark against Ramsay Bolton. ]

Now why Last Hearth?

In Jon Snow's conversation with Stannis we find out that no one knows who is in charge of Last Hearth or what is happening there.

It has already been theorized plenty that the Northern houses are playing the long game and have been doing so for a while. In the same vein I think the Umbers and Manderlys have been planning and plotting for a while.

First we know that Manderly has been tasked with building the defenses of White Harbor, which include fortifying their navy, right from AGoT when Ned wanted to prepare for an attack from the South.

"Once you are home, send word to Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover under my seal. They are to raise a hundred bowmen each and fortify Moat Cailin. Two hundred determined archers can hold the Neck against an army. Instruct Lord Manderly that he is to strengthen and repair all his defenses at White Harbor, and see that they are well manned. - Ned, AGoT

While Bran is ruling the North as Prince of Winterfell, Manderly offers to build Robb Stark a strong navy that can take Dragonstone and King's Landing if he had enough gold. At the same time the Umber brothers Hothor and Crowfood want ships to fight back the Wildling raiders from Eastwatch. Ser Rodrik asks both houses to work together to build these ships.

In addition to a mint, Lord Manderly also proposed to build Robb a warfleet. "We have had no strength at sea for hundreds of years, since Brandon the Burner put the torch to his father's ships. Grant me the gold and within the year I will float you sufficient galleys to take Dragonstone and King's Landing both." - Bran, ACoK

Note also that Manderly wants to build galleys, not longships. These are ships that can carry armies and heavy horses.

Hother wanted ships. "There's wildlings stealing down from the north, more than I've ever seen before. They cross the Bay of Seals in little boats and wash up on our shores. The crows in Eastwatch are too few to stop them, and they go to ground quick as weasels. It's longships we need, aye, and strong men to sail them. The Greatjon took too many. Half our harvest is gone to seed for want of arms to swing the scythes." Ser Rodrik pulled at his whiskers. "You have forests of tall pine and old oak. Lord Manderly has shipwrights and sailors in plenty. Together you ought to be able to float enough longships to guard both your coasts." "Manderly?" Mors Umber snorted. "That great waddling sack of suet? His own people mock him as Lord Lamprey, I've heard. The man can scarce walk. If you stuck a sword in his belly, ten thousand eels would wriggle out." "He is fat," Ser Rodrik admitted, "but he is not stupid. You will work with him, or the king will know the reason why." And to Bran's astonishment, the truculent Umbers agreed to do as he commanded, though not without grumbling. - Bran, ACoK

We see the conclusion of this in ADwD with Davos in White Harbor, where he notices the warships. Yes, Manderly has not been idle and he has been building a lot of ships most probably with all the pine and oak he has been send by the Umbers.

That jetty wall conceals the inner harbor, he realized, as the Merry Midwife was pulling down her sail. The outer harbor was larger, but the inner harbor offered better anchorage, sheltered by the city wall on one side and the looming mass of the Wolf's Den on another, and now by the jetty wall as well. At Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, Cotter Pyke told Davos that Lord Wyman was building war galleys. There could have been a score of ships concealed behind those walls, waiting only a command to put to sea. - Davos II, ADwD

From here he could see down into the harbors. Both of them. Behind the jetty wall, the inner harbor was crowded with war galleys. Davos counted twenty-three. Lord Wyman was a fat man, but not an idle one, it seemed. - Davos II, ADwD

The dockside wharves were swarming. A clutter of small boats were tied up along the fish market, off-loading their catches. He saw three river runners too, long lean boats built tough to brave the swift currents and rocky shoots of the White Knife. It was the seagoing vessels that interested him most, however; a pair of carracks as drab and tattered as the Merry Midwife, the trading galley Storm Dancer, the cogs Brave Magister and Horn of Plenty, a galleas from Braavos marked by her purple hull and sails …- Davos II, ADwD

[Note: A Galleass is a warship that combined the sails and armament of a galleon with the maneuverability of the oared galley. Tycho Nestoris also visits the Wall with a Galley, Galleass and cog that Jon ends up borrowing for Hardhome.]

As many ships as Davos sees in the harbor, Manderly tells him there's more hidden in the White Knife. This tells me that the warships with the men and heavy horses have already departed on the White Knife and towards Long Lake.

“I have been building warships for more than a year. Some you saw, but there are as many more hidden up the White Knife. Even with the losses I have suffered, I still command more heavy horse than any other lord north of the Neck. My walls are strong, and my vaults are full of silver. Oldcastle and Widow's Watch will take their lead from me. My bannermen include a dozen petty lords and a hundred landed knights. I can deliver King Stannis the allegiance of all the lands east of the White Knife, from Widow's Watch and Ramsgate to the Sheepshead Hills and the headwaters of the Broken Branch. All this I pledge to do if you will meet my price.” - Davos, ADwD

Keep in mind the timeline. When Davos is at White Harbor, boats and river runners are still moving up and down the White Knife.

That was worse. And now the Bastard of Bolton was riding south with Hother Umber to join them for an attack on Moat Cailin. "The Whoresbane his own self," claimed a riverman who'd just brought a load of hides and timber down the White Knife, "with three hundred spearmen and a hundred archers. Some Hornwood men have joined them, and Cerwyns too." That was worst of all. - Davos, ADwD

A couple of months later, Melisandre sees the beginning of the water turning to ice.

"I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever." "Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?" - Melisandre, ADwD

Considering Manderly has already started moving men, machines and heavy horses long before even Davos gets there, I think it's safe to say that the host has assembled at Last Hearth before Long Lake and consequenctly White Knife froze over.

In ACoK, Theon speaks of Manderly sending siege machines up river. And yet we never see this? Where have these siege machines disappeared?

She knows more than I do, Theon realized. That only made him angrier. "The victory has given Leobald Tallhart the courage to come out from behind his walls and join Ser Rodrik. And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well. I'll have an army at my gates before the moon turns, and you bring me only ten men?" - Theon V, ACoK

And yet in Theon VI,

Theon studied there banners through Maester Luwin’s Myrish lens tube. The Cerwyn battle-axe flapped bravely wherever he looked, and there were Talhart trees as well, and mermen from White Harbor. Less common were the sigils of Flint and Karstark. Here and there he even saw the bull moose of the Hornwoods. But no Glovers, Asha saw to them, no Bolton’s from the Dreadfort, no Umbers come down from the shadow of the wall. They’d brought catapults and scorpions. He saw no siege engines rumbling up the kingsroad - Theon VI, ACoK

Where are all those Manderly knights, warhorses, siege engines and the Umber army? Even now Manderly beats the Boltons in terms of wealth and men, which is why Roose is so nervous about him in particular. Manderly's knights use plate armor while Bolton's use chain mail. As Manderly tells Davos he can get the men from all the nearby regions. With Ned's instruction to house Manderly to fortify White Harbor, it's a certainty that Manderly held back in the 2000 men he send Robb and now has around 7000 men.

We also know that the Cerwyns are staunchly loyal to the Starks, their house being on the Western branch of the White Knife.

"Night work is not knight's work," Lady Dustin said. "And Lord Wyman is not the only man who lost kin at your Red Wedding, Frey. Do you imagine Whoresbane loves you any better? If you did not hold the Greatjon, he would pull out your entrails and make you eat them, as Lady Hornwood ate her fingers. Flints, Cerwyns, Tallharts, Slates … they all had men with the Young Wolf." - The Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD

If there is anyone who can help with the movement of armies and siege machines across the White Knife it is the Cerwyns.

Both Manderly and Whoresbane Umber are also currently in Winterfell attending the marriage of Ramsay and Arya and the celebration feast. We see Lords like Stout talking quietly to Umber and Roose knows that Manderly is clever and possibly plotting against him and that the Umbers are cunning.

The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count. It was the girl who held them here, Lord Eddard's blood, but the girl was just a mummer's ploy, a lamb in a direwolf's skin. So why not send the northmen forth to battle Stannis before the farce unraveled? Slaughter in the snow. And every man who falls is one less foe for the Dreadfort. - Ghost in Winterfell, ADwD

On the dais, Lord Wyman Manderly sat between a pair of his White Harbor knights, spooning porridge into his fat face. He did not seem to be enjoying it near as much as he had the pork pies at the wedding. Elsewhere one-armed Harwood Stout talked quietly with the cadaverous Whoresbane Umber. - The Turncloak, ADwD

"He should be. Fear is what keeps a man alive in this world of treachery and deceit. Even here in Barrowton the crows are circling, waiting to feast upon our flesh. The Cerwyns and the Tallharts are not to be relied on, my fat friend Lord Wyman plots betrayal, and Whoresbane … the Umbers may seem simple, but they are not without a certain low cunning. Ramsay should fear them all, as I do. The next time you see him, tell him that." - Reek, ADwD

Look at that foreshadowing from Roose Bolton, who is quite cunning and strategic himself. He specifically mentions Manderly and Umber as houses Ramsay should fear. I believe he is correct as these two houses will be Ramsay's doom. They have already assembled a huge host at Last Hearth and are just waiting for Rickon Stark to get there, for them to rally behind the Stark sigil and the son of Ned Stark to take on the Boltons. Again, considering the timeline and Davos being behind the Wall POV by a couple of months, I think Rickon will be at Last Hearth in time for the next participant to get there.

And who is the next participant?

Jon Snow

The theory post I linked to at the start has already laid out pretty clearly the link between the previous battle at Long Lake and the possible new one. This is how GRRM writes and he loves a replaying of historical asoiaf events but with a new twist. We had a Dance of Dragons previously and we will get a new Dance of Dragons. The Wildfire was a threat previously? The Wildfire will be a threat again with Cersei Lannister possibly mirroring the Mad King. Bael the Bard stealing a Stark Maiden successfully to Abel the Bard getting caught attempting to do the same.

Now the Battle at Long Lake is only mentioned in the Jon Snow POV chapters - another clue - and is a cautionary tale about Sleepy Jack, the Lord Commander who is taken by surprise when Wildlings cross over and attack south of the Wall. It takes the Starks in Winterfell, Willam and his younger brother Artos, and Harmond Umber to fight back and repel the Wildling attack, defeat and kill Raymun Redbeard - the last legitimate threat from the Freefolk before Mance Raydar assembled his host.

That was how Raymun Redbeard had done it, Raymun who had been King-Beyond-the-Wall in the days of his grandfather's grandfather. Jack Musgood had been the lord commander in those days. Jolly Jack, he was called before Redbeard came down upon the north; Sleepy Jack, forever after. Raymun's host had met a bloody end on the shores of Long Lake, caught between Lord Willam of Winterfell and the Drunken Giant, Harmond Umber. Redbeard had been slain by Artos the Implacable, Lord Willam's younger brother. The Watch arrived too late to fight the wildlings, but in time to bury them, the task that Artos Stark assigned them in his wroth as he grieved above the headless corpse of his fallen brother. Jon did not intend to be remembered as Sleepy Jon Snow. - Jon II, ADwD

Keep in mind that it's the Freefolk who are now gradually taking over and commanding several posts at the Wall and becoming part of the Night's Watch and the current warden of the North and Lord of Winterfell are the Boltons, not the Starks.

The castle Jon returned to was far different from the one he'd left that morning. For as long as he had known it, Castle Black had been a place of silence and shadows, where a meagre company of men in black moved like ghosts amongst the ruins of a fortress that had once housed ten times their numbers. All that had changed. Lights now shone through windows where Jon Snow had never seen lights shine before. Strange voices echoed down the yards, and free folk were coming and going along icy paths that had only known the black boots of crows for years. Outside the old Flint Barracks, he came across a dozen men pelting one another with snow. Playing, Jon thought in astonishment, grown men playing like children, throwing snowballs the way Bran and Arya once did, and Robb and me before them - Jon, ADwD

So the previous Battle at Long Lake involved the Freefolk under Redbeard Vs the Starks and Umbers. The new Battle at Long Lake in TWoW will involve the Stark come down from the Wall with his army of Freefolk Vs Ramsay Bolton, Lord of Winterfell.

Now, I am not tackling the how and in what form Jon Snow will be resurrected. I am just starting here on the assumption that he will be resurrected and eager to attack the bastard of Bolton and end the Bolton threat to the North once and for all.

I also speculate that the Night's Watch as we know it is over as of the last ADwD chapter with flagrant breaking of oaths and neutrality, assassination, mutiny, the large group of angry Freefolk and dwindling number of crows. It's possible Jon Snow hears that Arya has been send on to Braavos (Which is for the good!) and that Stannis has failed to capture Winterfell and the North (Which is bad!) and then decides to attack Ramsay Bolton at Long Lake. I am also not speculating here on how Stannis fails and where, how and why the whole burning his daughter Shireen happens. I just think that Stannis is done with by the time Jon and Rickon face Ramsay Bolton.

It's very possible that Stannis takes down Roose Bolton with him. Two smart tacticians who are big players in the game and for as big a secondary character Stannis is, he deserves to go out in a big way and I think taking down Roose will give him that. Which leaves Ramsay Bolton to the Starks.

This is where I bring in GRRM's notes when writing season 4 of the TV show.

Speaking of which: Martin leaves a little note for the producers when writing about Ramsay’s flesh-eating hounds, whom we see hunting down a girl for sport.

[N.B. A note for future reference. A season or two down the line Ramsay’s pack of wolfhounds are going to be sent against the Stark direwolves, so we should build up the dogs as much as possible in this and subsequent episodes.]

Note that he is talking 'Direwolves' - plural. Summer is too far North beyond the Wall and Nymeria is too far south in the Riverlands (Assuming here that they don't get to Long Lake in the ensuing three/four months) and so I am going to speculate this is Shaggydog and Ghost. The black and white direwolves belonging to the oldest and youngest Stark.

Now keeping mind the winter weather, there could be a scenario where we get Jon Vs Ramsay, the Freefolk are not winning and then the Manderly host from Last Hearth charges in under a Stark banner turning the tide and beating the Boltons? It's possible. Unlike the badly written nonsense we got on the show, as outlined above, GRRM has painstakingly build up the Manderlys and Umbers secretly getting this big host up North. Them seeing the battle and then stepping in to finish off the Boltons is very possible. Especially as there will be Skagosi with Rickon and the Thenns representing Karstark are already amongst them, making them not as averse to helping out an army of Freefolk. We start getting the integration of the Freefolk into the North and it starts with Umber acceptance of the Wildlings.

It's also possible that Jon Snow becomes aware of this large Manderly host at Last Hearth as he marches towards Long Lake and vice versa, they combine forces, there is no surprise rescue just an all out battle which ends with House Bolton defeated and done with and The Winds of Winter ends with the Starks back in Winterfell and Rickon Stark named Lord of Winterfell.

I have been long wondering where the Jon Vs Ramsay confrontation will happen and now (thanks to that reddit post) I think it will happen at Long Lake with support from the Manderly/Umber host at Last Hearth.

#asoiaf #Jon Snow #Rickon Stark #House Stark #House Manderly #House Umber #The North #Battle at Long Lake

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