#co2 emission reduction

[head-post]

COP28 countries reach landmark deal to “transition” away from fossil fuels

The COP28 climate talks in Dubai have culminated in a historic agreement that will see the world phase out all fossil fuels for the first time.

The president of this year’s UN-organised summit, Sultan Al Jaber of the UAE, brokered an agreement that was strong enough for the US and the EU on the need to sharply curb the use of fossil fuels while keeping Saudi Arabia and other oil producers on board.

The final agreement calls for countries to phase out fossil fuels from their energy systems in a swift and orderly fashion, which helped convince sceptics. The agreement also calls for countries to contribute to the global transition effort – rather than explicitly forcing the transition on their own.

The so-called “UAE Consensus” ends the hottest year on record, which led to droughts and devastating wildfires. Al Jaber, who’s also chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, noted:

 “Together we have confronted the realities and sent the world in the right direction.”

Read more HERE

[poojahedge5]

Industries are at the forefront of the fight against climate change, and reducing Scope 1 emissions is a crucial step. By implementing cutting-edge technologies like carbon capture and leveraging renewable energy sources, businesses can significantly lower their greenhouse gas emissions and build a sustainable value chain. Together, we can make a lasting impact.

[just2bruce]

Carbon Capture for ships - current state

Some people think carbon capture onboard is going to be important in meeting emissions goals for ships. There is some entrepreneurship, and some interest by large oil producers and purveyors. However, many problems remain to be solved. There is essentially no ‘supply chain’ to handle the liquefied carbon product the ships produce onboard from running the carbon capture equipment. Liquid CO2 has…

[jcmarchi]

Distilled Giants: Why We Must Rethink Small AI Development

New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/distilled-giants-why-we-must-rethink-small-ai-development/

Distilled Giants: Why We Must Rethink Small AI Development

In recent years, the race to develop increasingly larger AI models has captivated the tech industry. These models, with their billions of parameters, promise groundbreaking advancements in various fields, from natural language processing to image recognition. However, this relentless pursuit of size comes with significant drawbacks in the form of high costs and significant environmental impact. While small AI offers a promising alternative, providing efficiency and lower energy use, the current approach to building it still requires substantial resources. As we pursue small and more sustainable AI, exploring new strategies that address these limitations effectively is crucial.

Small AI: A Sustainable Solution to High Costs and Energy Demands

Developing and maintaining large AI models is an expensive endeavor. Estimates suggest that training GPT-3 costs over $4 million, with more advanced models potentially reaching high-single-digit millions. These costs, including necessary hardware, storage, computational power, and human resources, are prohibitive for many organizations, particularly smaller enterprises and research institutions. This financial barrier creates an uneven playing field, limiting access to cutting-edge AI technology and hindering innovation.

Moreover, the energy demands associated with training large AI models are staggering. For example, training a large language model like GPT-3 is estimated to consume nearly 1,300 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity—equivalent to the annual power consumption of 130 U.S. homes. Despite this substantial training cost, each ChatGPT request incurs an inference cost of 2.9 watt-hours. The IEA estimates that the collective energy demand of AI, data centers, and cryptocurrency accounted for nearly 2 percent of global energy demand. This demand is projected to double by 2026, approaching the total electricity consumption of Japan. The high energy consumption not only increases operational costs but also contributes to the carbon footprint, worsening the environmental crisis. To put it in perspective, researchers estimate that training a single large AI model can emit over 626,000 pounds of CO2, equivalent to the emissions of five cars over their lifetimes.

Amid these challenges, Small AI provides a practical solution. It is designed to be more efficient and scalable, requiring much less data and computational power. This reduces the overall costs and makes advanced AI technology more accessible to smaller organizations and research teams. Moreover, small AI models have lower energy demands, which helps cut operational costs and reduces their environmental impact. By utilizing optimized algorithms and methods such as transfer learning, small AI can achieve high performance with fewer resources. This approach not only makes AI more affordable but also supports sustainability by minimizing both energy consumption and carbon emissions.

How Small AI Models Are Built Today

Recognizing the advantages of small AI, major tech companies like Google, OpenAI, and Meta have increasingly focused on developing compact models. This shift has led to the evolution of models such as Gemini Flash, GPT-4o Mini, and Llama 7B. These smaller models are primarily developed using a technique called knowledge distillation.

At its core, distillation involves transferring the knowledge of a large, complex model into a smaller, more efficient version. In this process, a “teacher” model—large AI model—is trained on extensive datasets to learn intricate patterns and nuances. This model then generates predictions or “soft labels” that encapsulate its deep understanding.

The “student” model, which is small AI model, is trained to replicate these soft labels. By mimicking the teacher’s behavior, the student model captures much of its knowledge and performance while operating with significantly fewer parameters.

Why We Need to Go Beyond Distilling Large AI

While the distillation of large AI into small, more manageable versions has become a popular approach for building small AI, there are several compelling reasons why this approach might not be a solution for all challenges in large AI development.

Continued Dependency on Large Models: While distillation creates smaller, more efficient AI models and improves computational and energy efficiency at inference time, it still heavily relies on training large AI models initially. This means building small AI models still requires significant computational resources and energy, leading to high costs and environmental impact even before distillation occurs. The need to repeatedly train large models for distillation shifts the resource burden rather than eliminating it. Although distillation aims to reduce the size and expense of AI models, it doesn’t eliminate the substantial initial costs associated with training the large “teacher” models. These upfront expenses can be especially challenging for smaller organizations and research groups. Furthermore, the environmental impact of training these large models can negate some of the benefits of using smaller, more efficient models, as the carbon footprint from the initial training phase remains considerable.

Limited Innovation Scope: Relying on distillation may limit innovation by focusing on replicating existing large models rather than exploring new approaches. This can slow down the development of novel AI architectures or methods that could provide better solutions for specific problems. The reliance on large AI restricts small AI development in the hands of a few resource-rich companies. As a result, the benefits of small AI are not evenly distributed, which can hinder broader technological advancement and limit opportunities for innovation.

Generalization and Adaptation Challenges: Small AI models created through distillation often struggle with new, unseen data. This happens because the distillation process may not fully capture the larger model’s ability to generalize. As a result, while these smaller models may perform well on familiar tasks, they often encounter difficulties when facing new situations. Moreover, adapting distilled models to new modalities or datasets often involves retraining or fine-tuning the larger model first. This iterative process can be complex and resource-intensive, making it challenging to quickly adapt small AI models to rapidly evolving technological needs or novel applications.

The Bottom Line

While distilling large AI models into smaller ones might seem like a practical solution, it continues to rely on the high costs of training large models. To genuinely progress in small AI, we need to explore more innovative and sustainable practices. This means creating models designed for specific applications, improving training methods to be more cost- and energy-efficient, and focusing on environmental sustainability. By pursuing these strategies, we can advance AI development in a way that is both responsible and beneficial for industry and the planet.

[poojagblog-blog]

The global Direct Air Capture Market is expected to grow from an estimated USD 62 million in 2023 to USD 1,727 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 60.9% during the 2023–2030 period according to a new report by MarketsandMarkets™. 

[dsiddhant]

The global Blue Ammonia Market is expected to grow from an estimated USD 78 million in 2023 to USD 7,664 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 62.3% according to a new report by MarketsandMarkets™.

[nando161mando]

What if we branded environmentalism as "masculine"?

#climatechange #climatecrisis #environment #gender

[scienceswitch]

Revolutionary Electrolyzer Efficiently Converts CO2 into Renewable Propane Fuel

An exciting new development in green energy technology has recently emerged from the Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT). A team of researchers at IIT has designed an electrolyzer device capable of efficiently converting carbon dioxide into propane using inexpensive and readily available materials. This breakthrough, detailed in a paper published in Nature Energy,  offers considerable promise…

[electronalytics]

Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market Insights Includes Dynamics Key Players, Demand, Products, and Application 2017 – 2032

Overview of the Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market:

The carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) market involves technologies and processes aimed at capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and energy-related sources, transporting it, and securely storing it underground or utilizing it in other applications. CCS is a key strategy in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and addressing climate change by reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel-based power plants, industrial facilities, and other high-emitting sources.

Global Carbon Capture and Sequestration Market is valued at USD 2.1 Billion in 2022 and is projected to reach a value of USD 7.49 Billion by 2030 at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 19.9% over the forecast period 2023-2030.

Key Factors Driving the Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market:

Climate Change Mitigation: CCS plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change by capturing and storing CO2 emissions from major industrial and energy-related sources. As governments, organizations, and industries commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, CCS offers a viable solution for decarbonizing high-emitting sectors.

Policy and Regulatory Support: Government policies and regulations that incentivize or mandate the reduction of CO2 emissions provide a significant driver for the CCS market. Financial support, tax incentives, carbon pricing mechanisms, and emissions reduction targets create a favorable environment for CCS deployment and investment.

Energy Transition and Fossil Fuel Use: CCS technology enables the continued use of fossil fuels while reducing their carbon footprint. As the world transitions to cleaner energy sources, CCS can play a vital role in mitigating emissions from fossil fuel power plants and industrial processes during the transition period.

Industrial Emissions Reduction: Industries such as cement production, steel manufacturing, and chemical processing contribute to a significant share of global CO2 emissions. CCS can help these industries reduce their emissions by capturing and storing CO2 generated during their production processes.

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): CCS can be coupled with enhanced oil recovery techniques, where the captured CO2 is injected into oil reservoirs to extract additional oil. The revenue generated from EOR can provide economic incentives for implementing CCS projects.

Here's an overview of the demand and scope of the CCS market:

Demand:

Climate Change Mitigation: The primary driver of CCS demand is the urgent need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and limit global warming. CCS offers a way to capture CO2 emissions from industrial processes and power plants before they are released into the atmosphere.

Regulatory Pressures: Governments and international organizations are implementing stricter emissions reduction targets. CCS can help industries comply with these regulations and avoid penalties.

Emission-Intensive Sectors: Industries such as power generation, cement production, steel manufacturing, and oil and gas extraction are major sources of CO2 emissions. These sectors have a high demand for CCS technologies to lower their carbon footprint.

Transition to Clean Energy: As renewable energy sources like wind and solar power grow, CCS can complement these efforts by capturing emissions from intermittent renewable sources and providing a stable source of low-carbon energy.

Scope:

Carbon Capture Technologies: CCS involves capturing CO2 emissions from various sources such as power plants, industrial facilities, and even directly from the air. Different capture technologies, such as post-combustion capture, pre-combustion capture, and oxyfuel combustion, offer diverse solutions for different industries.

Transport and Storage: Once captured, the CO2 needs to be transported and stored safely. This involves building pipelines to transport CO2 to storage sites, often deep underground in geological formations like depleted oil and gas reservoirs or saline aquifers.

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): Some CCS projects leverage the CO2 for enhanced oil recovery, a process where injected CO2 helps extract more oil from depleted wells while simultaneously storing the CO2 underground.

Policy and Incentives: Governments and organizations are providing financial incentives, subsidies, and grants to support CCS projects as part of their climate change mitigation strategies. The scope includes policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms to encourage CCS adoption.

Research and Innovation: Ongoing research aims to improve the efficiency and affordability of CCS technologies. Innovations in materials, capture processes, and storage techniques expand the scope of CCS applications.

Global Cooperation: CCS requires international cooperation due to its potential for cross-border carbon transport and storage. Collaborative efforts between countries can enhance the effectiveness of CCS projects.

Public Perception and Education: Part of the scope involves raising awareness about CCS, addressing public concerns, and building public support for these technologies as a crucial tool in the fight against climate change.

We recommend referring our Stringent datalytics firm, industry publications, and websites that specialize in providing market reports. These sources often offer comprehensive analysis, market trends, growth forecasts, competitive landscape, and other valuable insights into this market.

By visiting our website or contacting us directly, you can explore the availability of specific reports related to this market. These reports often require a purchase or subscription, but we provide comprehensive and in-depth information that can be valuable for businesses, investors, and individuals interested in this market.

“Remember to look for recent reports to ensure you have the most current and relevant information.”

Click Here, To Get Free Sample Report: https://stringentdatalytics.com/sample-request/carbon-capture-and-sequestration-(ccs)-market/11394/

Market Segmentations:

Global Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market: By Company

• Siemens

• Aker Solutions

• Fluor

• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries

• Halliburton

• Honeywell International

• Shell Global

• Maersk Oil

Global Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market: By Type

• Carbon Capture

• Carbon Sequestration

Global Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market: By Application

• Energy

• Industrial

• Agricultural

• Others

Global Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market: Regional Analysis

The regional analysis of the global Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) market provides insights into the market's performance across different regions of the world. The analysis is based on recent and future trends and includes market forecast for the prediction period. The countries covered in the regional analysis of the Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) market report are as follows:

North America: The North America region includes the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The U.S. is the largest market for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in this region, followed by Canada and Mexico. The market growth in this region is primarily driven by the presence of key market players and the increasing demand for the product.

Europe: The Europe region includes Germany, France, U.K., Russia, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, and Rest of Europe. Germany is the largest market for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in this region, followed by the U.K. and France. The market growth in this region is driven by the increasing demand for the product in the automotive and aerospace sectors.

Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region includes Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Rest of Asia-Pacific. China is the largest market for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in this region, followed by Japan and India. The market growth in this region is driven by the increasing adoption of the product in various end-use industries, such as automotive, aerospace, and construction.

Middle East and Africa: The Middle East and Africa region includes Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, South Africa, Egypt, Israel, and Rest of Middle East and Africa. The market growth in this region is driven by the increasing demand for the product in the aerospace and defense sectors.

South America: The South America region includes Argentina, Brazil, and Rest of South America. Brazil is the largest market for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in this region, followed by Argentina. The market growth in this region is primarily driven by the increasing demand for the product in the automotive sector.

Click Here, To Buy Premium Report:https://stringentdatalytics.com/purchase/carbon-capture-and-sequestration-(ccs)-market/11394/?license=single

Reasons to Purchase Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Market Report:

• To gain insights into market trends and dynamics: this reports provide valuable insights into industry trends and dynamics, including market size, growth rates, and key drivers and challenges.

• To identify key players and competitors: this research reports can help businesses identify key players and competitors in their industry, including their market share, strategies, and strengths and weaknesses.

• To understand consumer behavior: this research reports can provide valuable insights into consumer behavior, including their preferences, purchasing habits, and demographics.

• To evaluate market opportunities: this research reports can help businesses evaluate market opportunities, including potential new products or services, new markets, and emerging trends.

• To make informed business decisions: this research reports provide businesses with data-driven insights that can help them make informed business decisions, including strategic planning, product development, and marketing and advertising strategies.

About US:

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[head-post]

EU reaches deal to reduce industrial emissions

EU countries and the European Parliament said on Wednesday (29 November) that they had reached a preliminary agreement to limit industrial emissions, including from intensive poultry and pig farms and ore mines, Euractiv reports.

The EU Council representing member states said in a statement that the deal struck late Tuesday would “reduce harmful industrial emissions and improve public access to information.”

According to Teresa Ribera, Spain’s minister for environmental transformation, who represented member states in the negotiations on behalf of Spain’s EU Council presidency, the goal is to reduce pollution to levels that no longer negatively affect human health by 2050. She noted:

The new rules will set pollution limits at more effective levels and provide clear guidance to industry on the right investments to reduce their emissions effectively.

The agreement, which is yet to be formally adopted, aims to reduce air, soil and water pollution by businesses by revising existing emission and landfill regulations. 

Read more HERE

[reasonsforhope]

The World's Forests Are Doing Much Better Than We Think

You might be surprised to discover... that many of the world’s woodlands are in a surprisingly good condition. The destruction of tropical forests gets so much (justified) attention that we’re at risk of missing how much progress we’re making in cooler climates.

That’s a mistake. The slow recovery of temperate and polar forests won’t be enough to offset global warming, without radical reductions in carbon emissions. Even so, it’s evidence that we’re capable of reversing the damage from the oldest form of human-induced climate change — and can do the same again.

Take England. Forest coverage now is greater than at any time since the Black Death nearly 700 years ago, with some 1.33 million hectares of the country covered in woodlands. The UK as a whole has nearly three times as much forest as it did at the start of the 20th century.

That’s not by a long way the most impressive performance. China’s forests have increased by about 607,000 square kilometers since 1992, a region the size of Ukraine. The European Union has added an area equivalent to Cambodia to its woodlands, while the US and India have together planted forests that would cover Bangladesh in an unbroken canopy of leaves.

Logging in the tropics means that the world as a whole is still losing trees. Brazil alone removed enough woodland since 1992 to counteract all the growth in China, the EU and US put together. Even so, the planet’s forests as a whole may no longer be contributing to the warming of the planet. On net, they probably sucked about 200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere each year between 2011 and 2020, according to a 2021 study. The CO2 taken up by trees narrowly exceeded the amount released by deforestation. That’s a drop in the ocean next to the 53.8 billion tons of greenhouse gases emitted in 2022 — but it’s a sign that not every climate indicator is pointing toward doom...

More than a quarter of Japan is covered with planted forests that in many cases are so old they’re barely recognized as such. Forest cover reached its lowest extent during World War II, when trees were felled by the million to provide fuel for a resource-poor nation’s war machine. Akita prefecture in the north of Honshu island was so denuded in the early 19th century that it needed to import firewood. These days, its lush woodlands are a major draw for tourists.

It’s a similar picture in Scandinavia and Central Europe, where the spread of forests onto unproductive agricultural land, combined with the decline of wood-based industries and better management of remaining stands, has resulted in extensive regrowth since the mid-20th century. Forests cover about 15% of Denmark, compared to 2% to 3% at the start of the 19th century.

Even tropical deforestation has slowed drastically since the 1990s, possibly because the rise of plantation timber is cutting the need to clear primary forests. Still, political incentives to turn a blind eye to logging, combined with historically high prices for products grown and mined on cleared tropical woodlands such as soybeans, palm oil and nickel, mean that recent gains are fragile.

There’s no cause for complacency in any of this. The carbon benefits from forests aren’t sufficient to offset more than a sliver of our greenhouse pollution. The idea that they’ll be sufficient to cancel out gross emissions and get the world to net zero by the middle of this century depends on extraordinarily optimistic assumptions on both sides of the equation.

Still, we should celebrate our success in slowing a pattern of human deforestation that’s been going on for nearly 100,000 years. Nothing about the damage we do to our planet is inevitable. With effort, it may even be reversible.

-via Bloomburg, January 28, 2024

[batboyblog]

Things the Biden-Harris Administration Did This Week #28

July 19-26 2024

The EPA announced the award of $4.3 billion in Climate Pollution Reduction Grants. The grants support community-driven solutions to fight climate change, and accelerate America’s clean energy transition. The grants will go to 25 projects across 30 states, and one tribal community. When combined the projects will reduce greenhouse gas pollution by as much as 971 million metric tons of CO2, roughly the output of 5 million American homes over 25 years. Major projects include $396 million for Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection as it tries to curb greenhouse gas emissions from industrial production, and $500 million for transportation and freight decarbonization at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

The Biden-Harris Administration announced a plan to phase out the federal government's use of single use plastics. The plan calls for the federal government to stop using single use plastics in food service operations, events, and packaging by 2027, and from all federal operations by 2035. The US government is the single largest employer in the country and the world’s largest purchaser of goods and services. Its move away from plastics will redefine the global market.

The White House hosted a summit on super pollutants with the goals of better measuring them and dramatically reducing them. Roughly half of today's climate change is caused by so called super pollutants, methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Public-private partnerships between NOAA and United Airlines, The State Department and NASA, and the non-profit Carbon Mapper Coalition will all help collect important data on these pollutants. While private firms announced with the White House plans that by early next year will reduce overall U.S. industrial emissions of nitrous oxide by over 50% from 2020 numbers. The summit also highlighted the EPA's new rule to reduce methane from oil and gas by 80%.

The EPA announced $325 million in grants for climate justice. The Community Change Grants Program, powered by President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will ultimately bring $2 billion dollars to disadvantaged communities and help them combat climate change. Some of the projects funded in this first round of grant were: $20 million for Midwest Tribal Energy Resources Association, which will help weatherize and energy efficiency upgrade homes for 35 tribes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, $14 million to install onsite wastewater treatment systems throughout 17 Black Belt counties in Alabama, and $14 million to urban forestry, expanding tree canopy in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

The Department of Interior approved 3 new solar projects on public land. The 3 projects, two in Nevada and one in Arizona, once finished could generate enough to power 2 million homes. This comes on top of DoI already having beaten its goal of 25 gigawatts of clean energy projects by the end of 2025, in April 2024. This is all part of President Biden’s goal of creating a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged $667 million to global Pandemic Fund. The fund set up in 2022 seeks to support Pandemic prevention, and readiness in low income nations who can't do it on their own. At the G20 meeting Yellen pushed other nations of the 20 largest economies to double their pledges to the $2 billion dollar fund. Yellen highlighted the importance of the fund by saying "President Biden and I believe that a fully-resourced Pandemic Fund will enable us to better prevent, prepare for, and respond to pandemics – protecting Americans and people around the world from the devastating human and economic costs of infectious disease threats,"

The Departments of the Interior and Commerce today announced a $240 million investment in tribal fisheries in the Pacific Northwest. This is in line with an Executive Order President Biden signed in 2023 during the White House Tribal Nations Summit to mpower Tribal sovereignty and self-determination. An initial $54 million for hatchery maintenance and modernization will be made available for 27 tribes in Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The rest will be invested in longer term fishery projects in the coming years.

The IRS announced that thanks to funding from President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, it'll be able to digitize much of its operations. This means tax payers will be able to retrieve all their tax related information from one source, including Wage & Income, Account, Record of Account, and Return transcripts, using on-line Individual Online Account.

The IRS also announced that New Jersey will be joining the direct file program in 2025. The direct file program ran as a pilot in 12 states in 2024, allowing tax-payers in those states to file simple tax returns using a free online filing tool directly with the IRS. In 2024 140,000 Americans were able to file this way, they collectively saved $5.6 million in tax preparation fees, claiming $90 million in returns. The average American spends $270 and 13 hours filing their taxes. More than a million people in New Jersey alone will qualify for direct file next year. Oregon opted to join last month. Republicans in Congress lead by Congressmen Adrian Smith of Nebraska and Chuck Edwards of North Carolina have put forward legislation to do away with direct file.

Bonus: American law enforcement arrested co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada. El Mayo co-founded the cartel in the 1980s along side Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. Since El Chapo's incarceration in the United States in 2019, El Mayo has been sole head of the Sinaloa Cartel. Authorities also arrested El Chapo's son, Joaquin Guzman Lopez. The Sinaloa Cartel has been a major player in the cross border drug trade, and has often used extreme violence to further their aims.

[mostlysignssomeportents]

An end to the climate emergency is in our grasp

On June 20, I'm keynoting the LOCUS AWARDS in OAKLAND.

The problem with good news in the real world is that it's messy. Neat happy endings are for novels, not the real world, and that goes double for the climate emergency. But even though good climate news is complicated and nuanced, that doesn't mean it shouldn't buoy our spirits and fill our hearts with hope.

The big climate news this past week is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's clarion call about surging CO2 levels – the highest ever – amid a year that is on track to have the largest and most extreme series of weather events in human history:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/during-year-of-extremes-carbon-dioxide-levels-surge-faster-than-ever

This is genuinely alarming and you – like me – have probably experienced it as a kind of increase in your background radiation of climate anxiety. Perhaps you – like me – even experienced some acute, sit-bolt-upright-in-bed-at-2AM anxiety as a result. That's totally justifiable. This is very real, very bad news.

And yet…

The news isn't all bad, and even this terrible dispatch from the NOAA is best understood in context, which Bill McKibben provides in his latest newsletter post, "What You Want is an S Curve":

https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/what-you-want-is-an-s-curve

Financier and their critics should all be familiar with Stein's Law: "anything that can't go on forever will eventually stop." This is true outside of finance as well. One of the reasons that we're seeing such autophagic panic from the tech companies is that their period of explosive growth is at an end.

For years, they told themselves that they were experiencing double-digit annual growth because they were "creating value" and "innovating" but the majority of their growth was just a side-effect of the growth of the internet itself. When hundreds of millions of people get online every year, the dominant online services will, on average, gain hundreds of millions of new users.

But when you run out of people who don't have internet access, your growth is going to slow. How can it not? Indeed, at that point, the only ways to grow are to either poach users from your rivals (through the very expensive tactics of massive advertising and sales-support investments, on top of discounts and freebies as switching enticements), or to squeeze your own users for more.

That's why the number of laptops sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of cellphones sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of "smart home" gizmos slowed down.

Even the steepest hockey-stick-shaped exponential growth curve eventually levels off and becomes an S-curve, because anything that can't go on forever will eventually stop.

One way or another, the world's carbon emissions will eventually level off. Even if we drive ourselves to (or over) the brink of extinction and set up the conditions for wildfires that release all the carbon stored in all the Earth's plants, the amount of carbon we pump into the atmosphere has to level off.

Rendering the Earth incapable of sustaining human civilization (or life) is the ultimate carbon reduction method – but it's not my first choice.

That's where McKibben's latest newsletter comes in. He cites a new report from the Rocky Mountain Institute, which shows a major reversal in our energy sources, a shift that will see our energy primarily provided by renewables, with minimal dependence on fossil fuels:

https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/

The RMI team says that in this year or next, we'll have hit peak demand for fossil fuels (a fact that is consistent with NOAA's finding that we're emitting more CO2 than ever). The reason for this is that so much renewable energy is about to come online, and it is so goddamned cheap, that we are about to undergo a huge shift in our energy consumption patterns.

This past decade saw a 12-fold increase in solar capacity, a 180-fold increase in battery storage, and a 100-fold increase in EV sales. China is leading the world in a cleantech transition, with the EU in close second. Cleantech is surging in places where energy demand is also still growing, like India and Vietnam. Fossil fuel use has already peaked in Thailand, South Africa and every country in Latin America.

We're on the verge of solar constituting an absolute majority of all the world's energy generation. This year, batteries will overtake pumped hydro for energy storage. Every cleantech metric is growing the way that fossil fuels did in previous centuries: investment, patents, energy density, wind turbine rotor size. The price of solar is on track to halve (again) in the next decade.

In short, cleantech growth looks like the growth of other technologies that were once rarities and then became ubiquitous overnight: TV, cellphones, etc. That growth isn't merely being driven by the urgency of the climate emergency: it's primarily a factor of how fucking great cleantech is:

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/the_incredible_inefficiency_of_fossils.pdf

Fossil fuels suck. It's not just that they wreck the planet, or that their extraction is both politically and environmentally disastrous. They just aren't a good way to make energy. About a third of fossil fuel energy is wasted in production and transportation. A third! Another third is wasted turning fossil fuels into energy. Two thirds! The net energy efficiency of fossil fuels is about 37%.

Compare that with cleantech. EVs convert electricity to movement with 80-90% efficiency. Heat pumps are 300% efficient (the main fuel for your heat pump is the heat in the atmosphere, not the electricity it draws).

Cleantech is just getting started – it's still in the hockey-stick phase. That means those efficiency numbers are only going up. Rivian just figured out how to remove 1.6 miles of copper wire from each vehicle. That's just one rev – there's doubtless lots of room for more redesigns that will further dematerialize EVs:

https://insideevs.com/news/722265/rivian-r1s-r1t-wiring/

As McKibben points out, there's been a lot of justifiable concern that electrification will eventually use up all our available copper, but copper demand has remained flat even as electrification has soared – and this is why. We keep figuring out new ways to electrify with fewer materials:

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/copper-wire-price-remains-stable-amidst-surplus-supply-and-expanding-mining-25416#:~:text=Global%20Copper%20wire%20Price%20Remains%20Stable%20Amidst%20Surplus%20Supply%20and%20Expanding%20Mining%20Activities

This is exactly what happened with previous iterations of tech. The material, energy and labor budgets of cars, buildings, furniture, etc all fell precipitously every time there was a new technique for manufacturing them. Renewables are at the start of that process. There's going to be a lot of this dematerialization in cleantech. Calculating the bill of materials for a planetary energy transition isn't a matter of multiplying the materials in current tech by the amount of new systems we'll need – as we create those new systems, we will constantly whittle down their materials.

What's more, global instability drives cleantech uptake. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in European renewables. The story that energy prices are rising due to renewables (or carbon taxes) is a total lie. Fossil fuels are getting much more expensive, thanks to both war and rampant, illegal price-fixing:

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/an-oil-price-fixing-conspiracy-caused

If not for renewables, the incredible energy shocks of the recent years would be far more severe.

The renewables story is very good and it should bring you some comfort. But as McKibben points out, it's still not enough – yet. The examples of rapid tech uptake had big business on their side. America's living rooms filled with TV because America's largest businesses pulled out all the stops to convince everyone to buy a TV. By contrast, today's largest businesses – banks, oil companies and car companies – are working around the clock to stop cleantech adoption.

We're on track to double our use of renewables before the decade is over. But to hold to the (already recklessly high) targets from the Paris Accord, we need to triple our renewables usage. As McKibben says, the difference between doubling and tripling our renewables by 2030 is the difference between "survivable trouble" and something much scarier.

The US is experiencing a welcome surge in utility scale solar, but residential solar is stalling out as governments withdraw subsidies or even begin policies that actively restrict rooftop solar:

https://twitter.com/curious_founder/status/1798049929082097842?s=51

McKibben says the difference between where we are now and bringing back the push for home solar generation is the difference between "fast" and "faster" – that is the difference between tripling renewables by 2030 (survivable) and doubling (eek).

Capitalism stans who argue that we can survive the climate emergency with market tools will point to the good news on renewable and say that the market is the only way to transition to renewables. It's true that market forces are partly responsible for this fast transition. But the market is also the barrier to a faster (and thus survivable) transition. The oil companies, the banks who are so invested in fossil fuels, the petrostates who distort the world's politics – they're why we're not much farther along.

The climate emergency was never going to be neatly solved. We weren't going to get a neat novelistic climax that saw our problems sorted out in a single fell swoop. We're going to be fighting all the way to net zero, and after that, we'll still have decades of climate debt to pay down: fires, floods, habitat loss, zoonotic plagues, refugee crises.

But we should take our wins. Even if we're far from where we need to be on renewables, we're much farther along on renewables than we had any business hoping for, just a few years ago. The momentum is on our side. It's up to us to use that momentum and grow it. We're riding the hockey-stick, they're on that long, flat, static top of the S-curve. Their curve is leveling off and will start falling, ours will grow like crazy for the rest of our lives.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/12/s-curve/#anything-that-cant-go-on-forever-eventually-stops

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Solar company in Jalgaon