#2022 MAP

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Governor Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/ This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

* My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + Early voting(VBM+In person)

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

My 2022 Governor Final Map on the Twitter:

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)

Last Updated: November 7, 2022  8:30 AM (EST) Maine

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Shapiro 53% / Mastriano 40%. D +13

Crosstabs, White: Shapiro 51 / Mastriano 43.

My Adjusted %: Shapiro 53.6 / Mastriano 41.8 D +11.8

Shapiro: R(47)x16+D(46)x92+I(7)x53=53.62

Mastriano: R(47)x80+D(46)x4+I(7)x34=41.82

3) Pennsylvania Gov  Race 2022 Forecast: Solid D

2. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 41% / IND 9%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Marquette 10/24-11/1 679 LV

https://www.dropbox.com/s/l3h7qgjl78njvjf/MLSP74CrosstabsLV.html?dl=1

Michels 48% / Evers 48%

My Adjusted %: Michels(REP) +7.68%

Michels: R(50)x92+D(41)x2+I(9)x55=51.78

Evers: R(50)x4+D(41)x95+I(9)x35=44.1

Beglinger: R(50)x3+D(41)x1+I(9)x9=2.72

(2) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22 1,376 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf

Michels 49 / Evers 48

My adjusted %: Michels R +4.97%

Michels: R(50)x94+D(41)x3+I(9)x41=51.92

Evers:R(50)x5+D(41)x97+I(9)x52=46.95

3) Wisconsin 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Lean R~Likely R

3. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 43% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)

Lake 52% / Hobbs 48%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf

(2) #AZGov Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf

LV Model: Hobbs(D) 49 / Lake® 48

My Adjusted %: Hobbs +0.26%

Hobbs(D): R(51)x9+D(43)x97+I(6)x53=49.48 Lake®: R(51)x90+D(43)x2+I(6)x41=49.22

(3) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26. 604 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Lake 48 / Hobbs 48

My Adjusted %: Lake R +3.96%

Lake: R(50)x93+D(43)x4+I(7)X38=50.88%

Hobbs: R(50)x5+D(43)x94+I(7)x57=46.91

(4) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22 1,376 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_az_midterm_tabs.pdf

Lake 50 / Hobbs 46

My Adjusted %: Lake R +3.94%

Lake: R(50)x93+D(43)x2+I(7)X46=50.58%

Hobbs: R(50)x4+D(43)x96+I(7)x48=46.64

3) Arizona Party ID %  Statistics

(1) August 2022

REP: 34.52%  DEM: 30.97%   R +3.55%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 35.24% DEM: 32.2%  R +3.04%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data/voter-registration-counts

about +0.51% shift for Rep.

4) Arizona 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

4. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,

2018 NVGov Fox Voter Analysis: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%

2020 NV Pres Fox Voter Analysis: REP 48% / DEM 47% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24. 885 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Lombardo 49 / Sisolak 45

My Adjusted %: Lombardo +6.06%

Lombardo: R(47)x92+D(42)x6+I(11)X53=51.59%

Sisolak: R(47)x6+D(42)x92+I(11)x37=45.53

(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf

Lombardo 48% / Sisolak 47%

My Adjusted %: Lombardo R +4.07%

Lombardo: R(47)x91+D(42)x5+I(11)x45=49.82

Sisolak: R(47)x3+D(42)x93+I(11)x48=45.75

3) Nevada Party ID %  Statistics

(1) September 6, 2022: Active Voters.  Total 1,779,484

DEM 586,475(32.96%) REP 538,077(30.24%)  D +2.72%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics/2022

(2) November 2, 2020: Active Voters.  Total 1,821,356

DEM 679,332(37.3%) REP 591,916(32.5%)  D +4.8%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics/-fsiteid-1

(2) October 18, 2018: Active Voters.  Total 1,560,928

DEM 598,174(38.32%) REP 523,251 (33.52%)  D +4.69%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics/-fsiteid-1

Since november 2020 about +2.08% shift for Rep.

4) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean~Likely R

5. Michigan

1) My Party ID speculation, MI

with Leaner: REP 48% / DEM 44% / IND 9%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Mitchell 11/3  658 LV

whitmer (D) 50 / TudorDixon ® 48

My Adjusted %: Dixon® +0.56.  Dead Heat

Dixon: R(48)x92+D(44)x3+I(8)x51=49.56

Whitemer: R(48)x6+D(44)x97+I(8)x43=49

https://realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Mitchell_-_MIRS_Press_Release_MI_Poll_11-4-22.pdf

3) Michigan 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Tilt R

6. Minnesota

1) My Party ID speculation, MN

with Leaner: REP 47% / DEM 45% / IND 8%

1) Election 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis

MN: 3,583 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=MN

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner:  DEM 47% / REP 46% / IND 6%

Trends could be similar like PA  R +1% D -1% from 2020

(voter regd in Iowa is also trending R)

My Speculation(September, 2022). Minnesota

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 45% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA 10/26-10/30, 836 LV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YvHqJVoiDCp5NEWzuQHfhoCt9uxuin8keKdZ5iCl5Q0/edit#gid=0

Poll results: Walz 51% / Jensen 43%

My adjusted %: Walz 51.6 / Jensen 45.4. Walz(D) +6.2%

Walz: R(47)x9+D(45)x96+IND(8)x52= 51.59

Jensen: R(47)x87+D(45)x4+IND(8)x34= 45.41%

undecided: REP 3% / DEM 0% / IND7%

(2) Trafalgar 10/17-10/19  1,091 LV

Jensen 46.3 / Walz 45.8 / 3rd Parties 3.9 / Undecided 3.9

R +0.5%

https://alphanews.org/exclusive-jensen-takes-lead-in-minnesota-governors-race/

(3) MinnPost 10/10-10/14, 1,585 LV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YvHqJVoiDCp5NEWzuQHfhoCt9uxuin8keKdZ5iCl5Q0/edit#gid=0

Poll results: Walz 47% / Jensen 42%

My adjusted %: Jensen 44.9% / Walz 44.74%.  R +0.16%

Jensen: R(47)x88+D(45)x2+IND(8)x33= 44.9%

Walz: R(47)x2+D(45)x92+IND(8)x30= 44.74%

undecided/would not vote: REP 6% / DEM 2% / IND 23%

considering undecided/would not voters favor Jensen (R 6 > D 2 )

3) Minnesota 2022 Forecast: Lean D

7. New York

1) My Party ID speculation, New York

with leaner: DEM 57% / REP 38% / IND 5%

without leaner: DEM 48% / REP 26% / IND 26%

2018 NYGov Fox voter analysis

2) Latest Poll

Emerson 10/20-10/24, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-2022-hochuls-lead-over-zeldin-tightens-independent-voters-flip-toward-zeldin/

Poll results: Hochul(DEM) 50.1 / Zeldin(REP) 43.8% D +6.3%

Poll Samples: 1) registered: D 52.7 / R 23.6 / Other 23.5

3) New York Governor 2022 Forecast: Lean D

8. Oregon

1) My Party ID speculation, OR

with leaner DEM 49 / REP 43 / Pure IND 8

2022 GOP is doing much better than 2020

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=OR&view_type=state

2020 Fox voter analysis with leaner: DEM 54 / REP 41 / Pure IND 5

DEM  Biden 95 / Trump 4

REP  Biden 8 / Trump 89

IND    Biden 48 / Trump 33

2018 Fox voter analysis with leaner: DEM 50 / REP 34 / Pure IND 16

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OR&type=G

DEM  Brwon 89 / Buehler 8

REP  Brown 7 / Buehler 90

IND    

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/31-11/1  975 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/oregon-2022-independent-candidates-support-melts-as-democrat-tina-kotek-leads-republican-christine-drazan-by-four-for-governor/

Kotek 46 / Drazan 41 / Johnson 9

(2) DataProgress 10/16-10/18 1,021 LV

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_oregon_october18_2022_tabs.pdf

Drazan 43 / Kotek 42 / Johnson 12

My adjusted %: Kotek D +1.6%

Kotek: D(49)x87+R(43)x1+IND(8)X36=45.94

Drazan: D(49)x3+R(43)X93+IND(8)X36=44.34

Johnshon: D(49)x8+R(43)x5+IND(8)x23=7.91

3) Oregon 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Tilt D

9. Maine

1) My Party ID speculation, ME

with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / IND 10%

2) Latest Poll

(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 922 LV

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1716&context=survey_center_polls

Poll samples: DEM 45% / REP 40% / IND 16%

Poll results: Mills 52% / LePage 44% / Hunkler 2%

Adjusted % : LePage(REP) +4.1%

LePage: REP(48%)x96%+DEM(42%)X0%+IND(10%)x45%= 50.58%

Mills: REP(48%)x4%+DEM(42%)x98%+IND(10%)x34%= 46.48%

Hunkler: REP(48%)x0%+DEM(42%)x2%+IND(10%)x8%= 1.64%

3) Maine Governor 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

10. New Mexico

1) My Party ID speculation, NM

with leaner: DEM 50% / REP 43% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Journal 10/20-10/27, 1,254 LV

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

1) Poll results

Results: Grisham 50% / Ronchetti 42%

3) New Mexico Governor 2022 Forecast: Lean D

11. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf

Poll results: Jared Polis(DEM) 55% / Heidi Ganahl(REP) 40%.  

Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10%

Adjusted %:

Polis: D(43)x98+R(42)x5+IND(15)x46=51.14

Ganahl: D(43)x1+R(42)x88+IND(15)x45=44.14

3) Colorado Governor 2022 Forecast: Solid D

12. Kansas

1) My Party ID speculation, KS

with leaner: REP 59% DEM 37% IND 4%

2020 Fox voter analysis KSSen: REP 59% DEM 37% IND 4%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?race=S&state=KS

2018 KSGov it was REP 54% / DEM 35% / IND 11%

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=KS&type=G

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/27-10/29  1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2022-governor-laura-kelly-holds-three-point-lead-over-ag-derek-schmidt-in-gubernatorial-election-senator-moran-leads-by-21-points-for-re-election/

Poll results(with Leaner): Kelly(DEM) 48.7% / Scmidt(REP) 44.1%

Adjusted %: Kelly 47.5% / Schmidt 45.9% / Pyle 5.2%. D +1.6%

Kelly: R(59%)x18.2% +D(37%)x93.5%+IND(4%)x54.8%= 47.525%

Schmidt: R(59%)x72.7% +D(37%)x4.3%+IND(4%)x35.9%=45.92%

Pyle(Ind, Former Republican until 2022, Still a Kansas State Senator)

: R(59%)x 7.8+D(37%)x1.1+IND(4%)x4.6=5.193%

3) Kansas Party ID %  Statistics

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/elections-statistics-data.html#voter-registration

Aug,2022 Total   1,951,099

REP 858,429 (44.0%) DEM 503,746 (25.82%)  R +18.18%

Jan, 2021 Total 1,942,156

REP 874,555 (45.03%) DEM 509,955 (26.26%)  R +18.77%

4) Kansas Governor 2022 Forecast: Tilt D

13. Connecticut

1) My Party ID speculation, CT

with leaner: DEM 53% / REP 41% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/19-10/21, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/connecticut-2022-incumbents-blumenthal–lamont-maintain-leads-ahead-of-midterm-elections/

Poll results: Lamont 52% / Stefanowski 41%

3) Connecticut Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

FYI) 2018 CO Gov race results: Lamont 49.4% / Stefanowski 46.2%. D +3.2%

The race for governor is heating up with a 2018 rematch of

Ned Lamont vs. Bob Stefanowski.

14. Oklahoma

1) My Party ID speculation, Oklahoma

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=OK

with leaner: REP 68% / DEM 29% / IND 3% (2020 Fox )

2018 OKGov it was REP 65% / DEM 26% / IND 10%

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OK&type=G

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/25-10/28, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/oklahoma-2022-governor-stitt-leads-hofmeister-by-nine-economy-is-determining-issue-for-voters/

Stitt 52% / Hofmeister 43%

(2) Ascend Action ®/Fox25 10/10-10/12, 638 LV

https://okcfox.com/news/local/oklahoma-governor-election-midterm-2022-joy-hofmeister-kevin-stitt-democrat-republican-independent-vote-poll-ascend-action-joe-biden

Poll results: Hofmeister (DEM) 49 % / Stitt (REP-INC) 42%

Adjusted: Stitt 48.7% / Hofmeister 41.5%  R +7.2%

Stitt: REP(68%)x69%+DEM(29%)x4%+IND(3%)x22%=48.74%

Hofmeister: REP(68%)x20%+DEM(29%)x89%+IND(3%)x69%=41.48%

3) Oklahoma Governor 2022 Forecast: Solid R

15. Illinois

1) My Party ID speculation, IL

with leaner: DEM 51% / REP 41% / IND 8%

2020 ILPres Fox Voter Analysis(with leaner)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=IL

D 54 / R 41 / IND 5

DEM  Biden 96 / Trump 3

REP Biden 8 / Trump 90

IND  Biden 48 / Trump 40

2018 ILGov Fox Voter Analysis (with leaner)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=IL&type=G

D 52 / R 35 / IND 13

FYI) McCann a former republican, very conservative candidate.

DEM  Priztker 90 / Rauner 7 / McCann 1

REP  Priztker 8 / Rauner 83 / McCann 8

IND   No info, If i calculate the guess using the elimination method,

IND Priztker 37.9(?) / Rauner 47.2(?) / McCann  7(?)

2018 ILGov results: Pritzker 54.53 / Rauner 38.83 / McCann 4.23

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/20-10/24, 1,000 LV

emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-incumbents-prtizker-and-duckworth-leads-shrink-as-republican-challengers-bailey-and-salvi-gain-support/

Poll results: Pritzker(DEM) 50.3% / Bailey(REP) 40.8%.

My Adjusted %: Pritzker(DEM) 49.79% / Bailey(REP) 42.95%. D +6.84%

Pritzker: D(50)x88.3+R(42)x6.6+IND(8)x39=49.79%

Bailey: D(50)x5.3+R(42)x87.2+IND(8)x45.9=42.946

3) Illinois Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D~Solid  D

[mapsontheweb]

Bar-tailed Godwit has broken its own record in 2022: a first-year bird (five months old!) has flown 13,560 km—just shy of the direct flight limit of a Boeing 787—from Alaska to Tasmania, seemingly non-stop, in just 11 days (average speed c.51 km/hr).

[as-salty-as-the-sea]

so did you guys also cry at the end of vampire or are you normal

i’m actual so emotional over these two like they r so special to me

take a look under the cut for closeups and an extra sketchie :D

likes, reblogs and comments are always appreciated ^w^

references + inspo !!

- zoexkart on instagram

[hoodiedeer]

d1_trainstation_04

artfight attack from last year for @cavern-of-remembrance 🖤

[filmap]

Les cinq diables / The Five Devils Léa Mysius. 2022

House 39 Rue des Grandes Rousses, 38520 Le Bourg-d'Oisans, France See in map

See in imdb

[magic-and-sadness]

im sorry but how does bluetwelve studios expect me to play through all of stray in under 2 hours. i have to stop and observe every fine detail for at least 20 minutes per area. and also cry a lot that too

[kr1arton]

“I just ordered a slice of pumpkin pie”

[professoruber]

Random thoughts/questions on Cassandra Cain's name

Random thought but do you think anyone in-universe has mistakenly though Cassandra Cain was a Kane? Because I'm fairly certain those two surnames should be pronounced the same right?

While the names may be spelt differently, it does kinda make me wonder if some random Gothamite heard that "Bruce Wayne adopted a new kid called Cassandra Cain" and assumed it was Kane because Bruce's cousins are the Kanes and so that seems like the obvious first thought when hearing the name spoken in that context.

Does any of this mean anything? Not really I guess. Just a thought which crossed my mind.

Actually... a quick question for Cass fans; how often does Cassandra even use the surname Cain? Curious about this, since from what I've read of her backstory... David Cain sucked (biggest understatement of 2024 so far); so possibly not someone Cass would want to associate with him taking his name.

Does has ever go by Cassandra Wayne after getting adopted?

Still a novice at comics and slowly consuming more; but this panel from Batgirls (2022-2023) #11 comes to mind; when Maps asks for Cass' last name, Cass seems to just kinda ignores her and moves the conversation along.

Still though, from what I've read around Tumblr and stuff; Batgirls doesn't seem to be considered too good in terms of characterisation and so I am curious if the subject gets discussed elsewhere.

Definitely am having quite a bit of fun learning more about these characters and their history, on that note.

[metal-requiem]

i am once again taking a au that started as a joke way too seriously <3

+ twenty seconds later:

[angelsaxis]

jupe's been chasing the fame he got from the Gordy Show despite the absolute tragedy it ended in. he's made it his life's goal to profit off spectacle even if he can't speak directly about the trauma that's foundational to both that event and his current behavior (notice he talks about the SNL sketch about the gordy show rather than the gordy show incident itself). he's tried to recreate what he could from the gordy show--he was an asian kid (in the show) with a white (im assuming) adoptive family and he's gone on to marry a white woman. the one member of the cast that was untouched and possibly even spared violence. he thought he'd be safe from the alien the same way he was "safe" from gordy.

and look at how he drags other people into it, too. he has the memorbilia room and charges people to look at it. he has the shoe. he's brought his former co star and first crush along with countless other people to witness This Great Spectacle. He even involved horses. Spectacle is at the center of Nope the same way its at the center of modern life, and in both real life and this movie, people forget that chasing that fame and chasing/trying to profit from that spectacle causes real harm to people who may not be directly involved.

contrast him with OJ--even for his initial attempts with Em and Angel to get that "Oprah" moment, one of the first scenes he's in is him trying to shy away from everyone. he won't make eye contact, he's not forward or bold and he's physically turned away from everyone. he has nothing to show off (he's not praising the horse or talking up the ranch, he's just there to do his job and leave) but he's mindful of how the current center of attention (the horse) can turn into a real danger when too many people flock to it (don't look it in the eye, keep that thing out of its eye, they're territorial, stay away from the back of the horse). obviously em comes in and tries to draw attention anyways, but that contrast between Jupe and OJ is still there.

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Senate Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)

My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + VBM

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

My 2022 Senate Race Final Map on the Twitter:

Governor Races: PAGov Solid D / WIGov Lean R

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)

Last Updated: 11/7 7:30PM(EST)

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Research Co. 11/2-11/6, 450 LV

https://researchco.ca/2022/11/07/2022-midterm-uspoli/

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf

Decided Voters: Fetterman 49 / Oz 48

Crosstabs:

DEM  Fetterman 94 / Oz 6

REP  Fetterman 12 / Oz 83

IND   Fetterman 50 / Oz 50

Considering Crosstabs It looks like oversampled REP.

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,021 LV (1,152 RV)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-pennsylvania-2/

Fetterman 51 / Oz 45

Corsstabs:

Among White Voters: Fetterman 47 / Oz 48

(FYI 2020 Marist PA Final White Voters: BIden 48 / Trump 50 )

Philly Fetterman: 83 / Oz 10

Philly Suburbs:  Fetterman 56 / Oz 42

(3) Fox 10/26-10/30 1,005 RV

Fetterman 47 / Oz 43 (Alredy Voted/certained to vote)

R 45 / D 44 / IND 11 R+1 Samples

White Voters: Fetterman 45 / Oz 44 / Other 4

(2020 Fox PA final D +5 Samples, White Voters: Trump 51 / Biden 45)

https://foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-half-pennsylvanians-say-senate-debate-factor-their-vote

(4) Monmouth 10/27-10/31 608 LV

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/

Fetterman 48 / Oz 44

Samples, Self Party ID: REP 37% / DEM 36% / Indy 27% R +1%

Crosstabs

White Voters: Fetterman 46 / Oz 47

(2020 Monmouth PA Final White voters: Trump 52 / Biden 43)

with Total D +5 samples.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_110220/

White: From R+9(2020) to R+1(2022)

(5) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Fetterman 49% / Oz 44%

Samples: R 36% / D 35% / IND 24% / Other 5%  R +1%  

Crosstabs

White: Fetterman 46 / Oz 48

Black: Fetterman 86 / Oz 6

Other(Mainly Hispanic/Asian): Fetterman 60 / Oz 36

My Adjusted %: Fetterman 50.0% / Oz 45.1%  D +4.9%

Fetterman: R(47)x9+D(46)x92+I(7)x49=49.98

Oz: R(47)x87+D(46)x3+I(7)x41=45.14

3) Pennsylvania Sen Race 2022 Forecast: Lean D

2. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 43% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)

Masters 50% / Kelly 49%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)

LV Model: Kelly(D) 50 / Masters® 47

My Adjusted %: Kelly(D) +2.28%

Kelly(D): R(51)x10+D(43)x98+I(6)x53=50.42

Masters®: R(51)x88+D(43)x2+I(6)x40=48.14

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf

(3) Civiqs 10/29-11/2. 852 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_AZ_banner_book_2022_11_4t7yks.pdf

Masters 49% / Kelly 49%

My Adjusted %: Masters(REP) +2.71%

Masters: R(50)x93+D(43)x1+I(7)x50=50.43

Kelly: R(50)x4+D(43)x99+I(7)x45=47.72

(4) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 604 LV(Pre-victor drops out poll)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Kelly 51% / Masters 45%

Samples: R 33% / D 29% / IND 32% / Other 6%  R +4%  

My Adjusted %: Kelly 50.05% / Masters 48.17%. D +1.88%

Kelly: R(50)x10+D(43)x95+I(7)x60=50.05

Masters: R(50)x88+D(43)x4+I(7)x35=48.17

3) Arizona Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

3. Georgia

1) My Party ID speculation, GA

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%,

imo GA Early Voting Favors GOP(ESP race %)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Fox 10/26-10/30, 1,002 RV

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-walker-gains-ground-in-georgia-senate-race

Walker 46% / Warnock 45%

(2) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/27, 604 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Warnock 49% / Walker 46%

Samples: R 34% / D 33% / IND 26% / Other 7%  R +1%  

My Adjusted %: Walker 51.3% / Warnock 46.0%. Walker R +5.3%

Walker: R(51)x92+D(42)x4+I(7)x39=51.33

Warnock: R(51)x5+D(42)x95+I(7)x51=46.02

3) Georgia Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R~Lean R

4. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22, 1,376 LV

Johnson 51% /  Barnes 46%

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf

My Adjusted %: Johnshon +5.29%

Johnson: R(51%)x96%+D(42%)x3%+IND(7%)x45%= 51.95%

Barnes:R(51%)x4%+D(42%)x96%+IND(7%)x50%= 45.86%

3) Wisconsin 2022 Sen Race Forecast: Likely R

5. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,

2) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24, 885 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Laxalt 47% / Masto 47%

Samples: D 32% / R 30% / IND 32% / Other 6%  D +2%  

My Adjusted %: Laxalt 51.1% / Masto 45.8% R +5.3%

Laxalt: R(47)x94+D(42)x4+I(11)x48=51.14

Masto: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+I(11)x40=45.81

(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf

Laxalt 49 / Masto 48

My Adjusted %: Laxalt R +3.79%

Laxalt: R(47)x93+D(42)x5+I(11)x44=50.65

Masto: R(47)x4+D(42)x94+I(11)x50=46.86

3) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean R

imo NV Early voting favors GOP

6. New Hampshire

1) My Party ID speculation, NH

with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / Pure IND 10%

FYI) 2020 Fox voter analysis NH: REP 48% / DEM 45% / IND 7%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=NH

FYI) 2018 Fox voter analysis NHGov: REP 42% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2020 NHPres wasn’t a competitive race. and Still It was R +3

This year is a Biden Midterm + NHSen is being a competitive race.

My speculation Party Breakdown in NH R 47 D 42 IND 11

2) Latest Poll

(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 2,077 LV

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1717&context=survey_center_polls

Hassan 50% / Bolduc 48%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +1.84%

Bolduc: R(48)x94+D(42)x1+undeclared party(10)x45=50.04

Hassan: R(48)x4+D(42)x99+undeclared party(10)x47=48.2

(2) Saint Anselm College 10/28-10/29 1,541 LV

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-gop-momentum

Bolduc 48% / Hassan 47%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +4.61%

Bolduc: R(47)x89+D(42)x5+undeclared party(11)x50=49.43

Hassan: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+undeclared party(11)x31=44.82

* undecieded. REP 4% / DEM 1% / Undeclared(Indy) 12% Which favors Bolduc more.

3) New Hampshire Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

7. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 15%

FYI) DeSantis Endorsed O’dea (10/23)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar 10/30-11/1. 1,084 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf

Bennet (DEM) 47.6% / O’dea (REP) 46.1%.  Bennet(D) +1.5%

(2) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf

Poll results: Bennet (DEM) 54% / O’dea (REP) 41%.

Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10% (imo oversampled D)

My adjusted % :Bennet 49 / O’dea 46  D +3%

Bennet: D(43)x96+R(42)x2+IND(15)x46=49.02

O’dea: D(43)x2+R(42)x92+IND(15)x44=46.01

(3) Marist 10/3-10/6. 983 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf

Bennet 49% / O’dea 43%

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49.4% / O’dea 45.9%.  Bennet +3.45%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x5%+I(15)x43%=48.54

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x90%+I(15)x40%=45.09%

(4) Data for Progress 10/3-10/6, 1,005 LV

Bennet 50% / O’dea 41%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_co_midterm_toplines.pdf

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49% / O’dea 45.8%.  Bennet +3.2%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x4%+I(17)x43%=48.98%

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x89%+I(17)x42%=45.81%

3) Colorado Sen 2022 Forecast: Lean D

8. Ohio

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Marist 10/17-10/20, 1,141 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-ohio-2/

Poll samples: REP 37 DEM 34 IND 28

Poll results: Vance(REP) 46% / Ryan(DEM) 45% / Undecided 8%

My Adjusted %: R +8.35%

Vance: R(54)x87+D(41)x6+IND(5)x41= 51.49

Ryan: R(54)x7+D(41)x91+IND(5)x41= 43.14

(2) Cygnal 10/18-10/22, 1,547 LV

https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-23-22/

Poll samples:  

Poll results: Vance 46.9 / Ryan 43.3

My Adjusted %: R +6.81%

Vance: R(54)x84+D(41)x5+IND(5)x40= 49.41

Ryan: R(54)x8+D(41)x88+IND(5)x44= 42.6

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

9. North Carolina

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, NC: R 50 D 44 IND 6

And NC Voter regd have shifted as Trend R +1.6% since nov,2020

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA 9/28-10/2, 677 LV

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=97eb868a-a6ae-4ed5-b5c1-2e8891119914

Poll samples: R 35% D 35% IND&Other 28%

Poll results: Budd(REP) 43% / Beasley(DEM) 42%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 48.4% / Beasley 40.74%.  R +7.66%

Budd: REP(50%)x87+DEM(42%)x5%+IND(8%)x35%= 48.4%

Beasley: REP(50%)x4%+DEM(42%)x85%+IND(8%)x38%= 40.74%

(2) Civiqs, 9/17-9/20, 586 LV

https://t.co/cwPoQfGcyG

Poll samples: R 36.8% D 36.1% IND&Other 27.1%

Poll results: Beasley(DEM) 49% / Budd(REP) 48%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 52.0% / Beasley 45.1%  R +6.9%

Budd: REP(50%)x94+DEM(42%)x3%+IND(8%)x47%= 52.02%

Beasley: REP(50%)x1%+DEM(42%)x97%+IND(8%)x48%= 45.08%

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

[mapsontheweb]

The global state of liberal democracy in 2022 where each country's size is distorted relative to its value of liberal democracy.

by researchremora

[phoenixriaartemis]

So I'm doing a full rewatch of maps from the story mode including Travelers and Si'ha ones.I already said this before in a post and on that same post I reblog what I could notice from Traveler and Si'ha respectives maps,which most of it where points already known by the community(but there are some that I think could be explore more Idk I'm not really good at this stuff)

But with Save your Tears I prefer to do a different post about it because there are somethings which can be deciftive I think it's the word?....But rather than doing my theory(which I'm still working on it I still have to see the rest of the maps from the story mode to have some concrete)I'm going to put here some points already known by the community but others which maybe can say a lot about how they met(or I think I'm not the lore guardian to say this is canon,this is just a theory that whoever read this can take with a grain of salt)

So some points are(takes notebook)

-The map taken place at the spacetime hotel(Why did I write this tho)

-Traveler appearing through a portal that takes to the map of Last Friday Night(this was more because of the wink that leads to this map)

-Traveler opening a portal to Si'Ha(I should have ommited to write this)

-Each one doing differents dance moves but later doing the other ones moves(But I think in their own style?Idk I will need to rewatch it that,also I wrote this to make parallels to Murder on the Dance Floor to see if there was something different in the dance)

-Flow flowing for both of them(Traveler characteristic one and Si'ha seems to have sparkles on her Flow?)

-Triangles hand move

-Starting a fusion between the Spacetime Hotel and Si'Ha maps(or not but that can be debatable)

-Now with the Bridge where they are doing the hands glowing thing that supposed to be Wanderlust welcoming to the world(also this is a gold move)

-At the end Traveler opening a portal but instead of returning to his respective map he goes to Si'ha ones and Si'ha goes to his map

Now I know that a lot of people know about this points but I also want to point out the lyrics of the song that might have a hint about how they met or what exactly happens(now this can be interpretated however you want to)

-"I don't know why I run away"(this one I think have been pointed out a lot)

-"I saw you dancing in a crowded room"

"you look so happy when I'm not with you"

"But then you saw me,caught you by surprise"

"A single teardrop falling from your eye"

This part is sang during Traveler part I assume this is more of second meeting tho but again I'm just going to leave that to everyone interpretation

"Met you once under a Pisces moon"

"I kept my distance cause I know that you"

"Don't like when I'm with somebody else"

"I couldn't help it,I put you through hell"

This is sang during Si'ha part and I feel like the story of this two was some kind of forbidden love?because of the somebody else(now don't come up at me about saying that I think Si'ha cheated on Traveler I think both of this was waaaay before this two ended up together and having Wanderlust and without cheating involve from both parts)(I'm still seeing comments like that in Youtube)

This could also lead to the fact about the reunion that the former lore guardian says a long time ago but who knows I'm not lore master or working on the JD team to know what will happen.This is just some points that I could take.

Update:I learn how to copy links(I'm fuking dumb with this one since it was easy and I kept doing that in my life)but anyway here the link to the other post:https://www.tumblr.com/phoenixriaartemis/750539407857238016/imma-rewatch-each-one-of-the-story-mode-maps?source=share

The points of Traveler and Si'Ha are in the reblogs

[disasterwriter]

I decided to finally watch scream V and got jumpscared by Dead Meat James and Jack Quaid. Absolutely terrifying how the dots are dotting.

[filmap]

Crimes of the Future David Cronenberg. 2022

Shipwreck Elefsina, Gulf of Eleusis, Greece See in map

See in imdb