#MAP 2022

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Governor Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)

My Twitter: https://twitter.com/StatesPoll/ This Map Created with www.Mapchart.net

* My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + Early voting(VBM+In person)

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

My 2022 Governor Final Map on the Twitter:

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)

Last Updated: November 7, 2022  8:30 AM (EST) Maine

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Shapiro 53% / Mastriano 40%. D +13

Crosstabs, White: Shapiro 51 / Mastriano 43.

My Adjusted %: Shapiro 53.6 / Mastriano 41.8 D +11.8

Shapiro: R(47)x16+D(46)x92+I(7)x53=53.62

Mastriano: R(47)x80+D(46)x4+I(7)x34=41.82

3) Pennsylvania Gov  Race 2022 Forecast: Solid D

2. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 41% / IND 9%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Marquette 10/24-11/1 679 LV

https://www.dropbox.com/s/l3h7qgjl78njvjf/MLSP74CrosstabsLV.html?dl=1

Michels 48% / Evers 48%

My Adjusted %: Michels(REP) +7.68%

Michels: R(50)x92+D(41)x2+I(9)x55=51.78

Evers: R(50)x4+D(41)x95+I(9)x35=44.1

Beglinger: R(50)x3+D(41)x1+I(9)x9=2.72

(2) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22 1,376 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf

Michels 49 / Evers 48

My adjusted %: Michels R +4.97%

Michels: R(50)x94+D(41)x3+I(9)x41=51.92

Evers:R(50)x5+D(41)x97+I(9)x52=46.95

3) Wisconsin 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Lean R~Likely R

3. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 43% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)

Lake 52% / Hobbs 48%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf

(2) #AZGov Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf

LV Model: Hobbs(D) 49 / Lake® 48

My Adjusted %: Hobbs +0.26%

Hobbs(D): R(51)x9+D(43)x97+I(6)x53=49.48 Lake®: R(51)x90+D(43)x2+I(6)x41=49.22

(3) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26. 604 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Lake 48 / Hobbs 48

My Adjusted %: Lake R +3.96%

Lake: R(50)x93+D(43)x4+I(7)X38=50.88%

Hobbs: R(50)x5+D(43)x94+I(7)x57=46.91

(4) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22 1,376 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_az_midterm_tabs.pdf

Lake 50 / Hobbs 46

My Adjusted %: Lake R +3.94%

Lake: R(50)x93+D(43)x2+I(7)X46=50.58%

Hobbs: R(50)x4+D(43)x96+I(7)x48=46.64

3) Arizona Party ID %  Statistics

(1) August 2022

REP: 34.52%  DEM: 30.97%   R +3.55%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

(2) November 6, 2018: Total 3,712,500

Rep: 35.24% DEM: 32.2%  R +3.04%

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data/voter-registration-counts

about +0.51% shift for Rep.

4) Arizona 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

4. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,

2018 NVGov Fox Voter Analysis: DEM 44% / REP 42% / IND 14%

2020 NV Pres Fox Voter Analysis: REP 48% / DEM 47% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24. 885 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Lombardo 49 / Sisolak 45

My Adjusted %: Lombardo +6.06%

Lombardo: R(47)x92+D(42)x6+I(11)X53=51.59%

Sisolak: R(47)x6+D(42)x92+I(11)x37=45.53

(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf

Lombardo 48% / Sisolak 47%

My Adjusted %: Lombardo R +4.07%

Lombardo: R(47)x91+D(42)x5+I(11)x45=49.82

Sisolak: R(47)x3+D(42)x93+I(11)x48=45.75

3) Nevada Party ID %  Statistics

(1) September 6, 2022: Active Voters.  Total 1,779,484

DEM 586,475(32.96%) REP 538,077(30.24%)  D +2.72%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics/2022

(2) November 2, 2020: Active Voters.  Total 1,821,356

DEM 679,332(37.3%) REP 591,916(32.5%)  D +4.8%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics/-fsiteid-1

(2) October 18, 2018: Active Voters.  Total 1,560,928

DEM 598,174(38.32%) REP 523,251 (33.52%)  D +4.69%

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics/-fsiteid-1

Since november 2020 about +2.08% shift for Rep.

4) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean~Likely R

5. Michigan

1) My Party ID speculation, MI

with Leaner: REP 48% / DEM 44% / IND 9%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Mitchell 11/3  658 LV

whitmer (D) 50 / TudorDixon ® 48

My Adjusted %: Dixon® +0.56.  Dead Heat

Dixon: R(48)x92+D(44)x3+I(8)x51=49.56

Whitemer: R(48)x6+D(44)x97+I(8)x43=49

https://realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Mitchell_-_MIRS_Press_Release_MI_Poll_11-4-22.pdf

3) Michigan 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Tilt R

6. Minnesota

1) My Party ID speculation, MN

with Leaner: REP 47% / DEM 45% / IND 8%

1) Election 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis

MN: 3,583 Respondents(Voters)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=MN

(1) Party ID%, Minnesota with leaner:  DEM 47% / REP 46% / IND 6%

Trends could be similar like PA  R +1% D -1% from 2020

(voter regd in Iowa is also trending R)

My Speculation(September, 2022). Minnesota

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 45% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA 10/26-10/30, 836 LV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YvHqJVoiDCp5NEWzuQHfhoCt9uxuin8keKdZ5iCl5Q0/edit#gid=0

Poll results: Walz 51% / Jensen 43%

My adjusted %: Walz 51.6 / Jensen 45.4. Walz(D) +6.2%

Walz: R(47)x9+D(45)x96+IND(8)x52= 51.59

Jensen: R(47)x87+D(45)x4+IND(8)x34= 45.41%

undecided: REP 3% / DEM 0% / IND7%

(2) Trafalgar 10/17-10/19  1,091 LV

Jensen 46.3 / Walz 45.8 / 3rd Parties 3.9 / Undecided 3.9

R +0.5%

https://alphanews.org/exclusive-jensen-takes-lead-in-minnesota-governors-race/

(3) MinnPost 10/10-10/14, 1,585 LV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YvHqJVoiDCp5NEWzuQHfhoCt9uxuin8keKdZ5iCl5Q0/edit#gid=0

Poll results: Walz 47% / Jensen 42%

My adjusted %: Jensen 44.9% / Walz 44.74%.  R +0.16%

Jensen: R(47)x88+D(45)x2+IND(8)x33= 44.9%

Walz: R(47)x2+D(45)x92+IND(8)x30= 44.74%

undecided/would not vote: REP 6% / DEM 2% / IND 23%

considering undecided/would not voters favor Jensen (R 6 > D 2 )

3) Minnesota 2022 Forecast: Lean D

7. New York

1) My Party ID speculation, New York

with leaner: DEM 57% / REP 38% / IND 5%

without leaner: DEM 48% / REP 26% / IND 26%

2018 NYGov Fox voter analysis

2) Latest Poll

Emerson 10/20-10/24, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-york-2022-hochuls-lead-over-zeldin-tightens-independent-voters-flip-toward-zeldin/

Poll results: Hochul(DEM) 50.1 / Zeldin(REP) 43.8% D +6.3%

Poll Samples: 1) registered: D 52.7 / R 23.6 / Other 23.5

3) New York Governor 2022 Forecast: Lean D

8. Oregon

1) My Party ID speculation, OR

with leaner DEM 49 / REP 43 / Pure IND 8

2022 GOP is doing much better than 2020

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=OR&view_type=state

2020 Fox voter analysis with leaner: DEM 54 / REP 41 / Pure IND 5

DEM  Biden 95 / Trump 4

REP  Biden 8 / Trump 89

IND    Biden 48 / Trump 33

2018 Fox voter analysis with leaner: DEM 50 / REP 34 / Pure IND 16

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OR&type=G

DEM  Brwon 89 / Buehler 8

REP  Brown 7 / Buehler 90

IND    

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/31-11/1  975 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/oregon-2022-independent-candidates-support-melts-as-democrat-tina-kotek-leads-republican-christine-drazan-by-four-for-governor/

Kotek 46 / Drazan 41 / Johnson 9

(2) DataProgress 10/16-10/18 1,021 LV

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_oregon_october18_2022_tabs.pdf

Drazan 43 / Kotek 42 / Johnson 12

My adjusted %: Kotek D +1.6%

Kotek: D(49)x87+R(43)x1+IND(8)X36=45.94

Drazan: D(49)x3+R(43)X93+IND(8)X36=44.34

Johnshon: D(49)x8+R(43)x5+IND(8)x23=7.91

3) Oregon 2022 Gov Race Forecast: Tilt D

9. Maine

1) My Party ID speculation, ME

with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / IND 10%

2) Latest Poll

(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 922 LV

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1716&context=survey_center_polls

Poll samples: DEM 45% / REP 40% / IND 16%

Poll results: Mills 52% / LePage 44% / Hunkler 2%

Adjusted % : LePage(REP) +4.1%

LePage: REP(48%)x96%+DEM(42%)X0%+IND(10%)x45%= 50.58%

Mills: REP(48%)x4%+DEM(42%)x98%+IND(10%)x34%= 46.48%

Hunkler: REP(48%)x0%+DEM(42%)x2%+IND(10%)x8%= 1.64%

3) Maine Governor 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

10. New Mexico

1) My Party ID speculation, NM

with leaner: DEM 50% / REP 43% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Journal 10/20-10/27, 1,254 LV

https://www.abqjournal.com/2544712/lujan-grisham-maintains-8point-lead-over-ronchetti.html

1) Poll results

Results: Grisham 50% / Ronchetti 42%

3) New Mexico Governor 2022 Forecast: Lean D

11. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 8%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf

Poll results: Jared Polis(DEM) 55% / Heidi Ganahl(REP) 40%.  

Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10%

Adjusted %:

Polis: D(43)x98+R(42)x5+IND(15)x46=51.14

Ganahl: D(43)x1+R(42)x88+IND(15)x45=44.14

3) Colorado Governor 2022 Forecast: Solid D

12. Kansas

1) My Party ID speculation, KS

with leaner: REP 59% DEM 37% IND 4%

2020 Fox voter analysis KSSen: REP 59% DEM 37% IND 4%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?race=S&state=KS

2018 KSGov it was REP 54% / DEM 35% / IND 11%

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=KS&type=G

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/27-10/29  1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2022-governor-laura-kelly-holds-three-point-lead-over-ag-derek-schmidt-in-gubernatorial-election-senator-moran-leads-by-21-points-for-re-election/

Poll results(with Leaner): Kelly(DEM) 48.7% / Scmidt(REP) 44.1%

Adjusted %: Kelly 47.5% / Schmidt 45.9% / Pyle 5.2%. D +1.6%

Kelly: R(59%)x18.2% +D(37%)x93.5%+IND(4%)x54.8%= 47.525%

Schmidt: R(59%)x72.7% +D(37%)x4.3%+IND(4%)x35.9%=45.92%

Pyle(Ind, Former Republican until 2022, Still a Kansas State Senator)

: R(59%)x 7.8+D(37%)x1.1+IND(4%)x4.6=5.193%

3) Kansas Party ID %  Statistics

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/elections-statistics-data.html#voter-registration

Aug,2022 Total   1,951,099

REP 858,429 (44.0%) DEM 503,746 (25.82%)  R +18.18%

Jan, 2021 Total 1,942,156

REP 874,555 (45.03%) DEM 509,955 (26.26%)  R +18.77%

4) Kansas Governor 2022 Forecast: Tilt D

13. Connecticut

1) My Party ID speculation, CT

with leaner: DEM 53% / REP 41% / IND 6%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/19-10/21, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/connecticut-2022-incumbents-blumenthal–lamont-maintain-leads-ahead-of-midterm-elections/

Poll results: Lamont 52% / Stefanowski 41%

3) Connecticut Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D

FYI) 2018 CO Gov race results: Lamont 49.4% / Stefanowski 46.2%. D +3.2%

The race for governor is heating up with a 2018 rematch of

Ned Lamont vs. Bob Stefanowski.

14. Oklahoma

1) My Party ID speculation, Oklahoma

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=OK

with leaner: REP 68% / DEM 29% / IND 3% (2020 Fox )

2018 OKGov it was REP 65% / DEM 26% / IND 10%

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OK&type=G

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/25-10/28, 1,000 LV

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/oklahoma-2022-governor-stitt-leads-hofmeister-by-nine-economy-is-determining-issue-for-voters/

Stitt 52% / Hofmeister 43%

(2) Ascend Action ®/Fox25 10/10-10/12, 638 LV

https://okcfox.com/news/local/oklahoma-governor-election-midterm-2022-joy-hofmeister-kevin-stitt-democrat-republican-independent-vote-poll-ascend-action-joe-biden

Poll results: Hofmeister (DEM) 49 % / Stitt (REP-INC) 42%

Adjusted: Stitt 48.7% / Hofmeister 41.5%  R +7.2%

Stitt: REP(68%)x69%+DEM(29%)x4%+IND(3%)x22%=48.74%

Hofmeister: REP(68%)x20%+DEM(29%)x89%+IND(3%)x69%=41.48%

3) Oklahoma Governor 2022 Forecast: Solid R

15. Illinois

1) My Party ID speculation, IL

with leaner: DEM 51% / REP 41% / IND 8%

2020 ILPres Fox Voter Analysis(with leaner)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=IL

D 54 / R 41 / IND 5

DEM  Biden 96 / Trump 3

REP Biden 8 / Trump 90

IND  Biden 48 / Trump 40

2018 ILGov Fox Voter Analysis (with leaner)

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=IL&type=G

D 52 / R 35 / IND 13

FYI) McCann a former republican, very conservative candidate.

DEM  Priztker 90 / Rauner 7 / McCann 1

REP  Priztker 8 / Rauner 83 / McCann 8

IND   No info, If i calculate the guess using the elimination method,

IND Priztker 37.9(?) / Rauner 47.2(?) / McCann  7(?)

2018 ILGov results: Pritzker 54.53 / Rauner 38.83 / McCann 4.23

2) Latest Poll

(1) Emerson 10/20-10/24, 1,000 LV

emersoncollegepolling.com/illinois-2022-democratic-incumbents-prtizker-and-duckworth-leads-shrink-as-republican-challengers-bailey-and-salvi-gain-support/

Poll results: Pritzker(DEM) 50.3% / Bailey(REP) 40.8%.

My Adjusted %: Pritzker(DEM) 49.79% / Bailey(REP) 42.95%. D +6.84%

Pritzker: D(50)x88.3+R(42)x6.6+IND(8)x39=49.79%

Bailey: D(50)x5.3+R(42)x87.2+IND(8)x45.9=42.946

3) Illinois Governor 2022 Forecast: Likely D~Solid  D

[mapsontheweb]

Bar-tailed Godwit has broken its own record in 2022: a first-year bird (five months old!) has flown 13,560 km—just shy of the direct flight limit of a Boeing 787—from Alaska to Tasmania, seemingly non-stop, in just 11 days (average speed c.51 km/hr).

[signfromeywa]

I worked on the map for my Clans! The area is called: "Eywa'tsngal" and means Eywas cup.

The climate zone is Temperate, so they have seasons: a mild winter and not so hot summer :) they never have snow.

Later on I will do close ups from each area! With precise description and information about each point of interest on the map 😊 everything will be visible later on my website! :3 I hope you are interested.

[ifyouknowmenahyoudontt]

i genuinely think that the shift from the old marauders to the new one where every straight ship even the canon and most important one (i.e jily) and that whole jegulus/all the other made up ships that make no sense come from a place of fetish. yall LOVE to turn characters into little stereotypes and that whole constant obsession w homosexuality is not helping any cause. most of view view homosexual/queer relationships as more angsty or interesting in a way that’s so strange to me. ships could follow the most standard plot line but still be considered angsty cus they’re queer and why is that? this fandom has taken such a strange turn.

you are making sexuality such a strong and central point in a character importance more than any other trait of their character. and those head canons just end up erasing the most important things about these characters

james potter was a strong and good man. he developed from his arrogant teenage self into a good man fighting for a good cause. but now you made him into a twink that is in love with a death eater/ a member of the family that abused his best friend all his life. james and sirius’s relationship was a central point of their characters. and james’s love for lily is a central point as well??????

sirius being turned into a overly feminine gay drama queen, even though what WAS important about him was his loyalty his strength and his honor??? but all of that was forgotten. HE CAN BE GAY WITHOUT ERASING HIS ORIGINAL PERSONALITY. stop painting him into a stereotype of a gay man.

regulus black is getting the recognition that is to be given to sirius. his character was not some brave rebel vigilante that fought for justice. he was a pureblood supremacist.he was a deatheater. yes he is important to the story but he was not what you made him.

lily evans is the most important character of the series. she’s the reason it exists. her and james’s love is the center point. but it was pushed away by you people to focus on your strange fetishized view of gay men. this MAJOR character whose love for her son and husband literally MADE the story got cast away as a secondary character.

important topics like sirius’sabusive family, lily and james’s courage and love….was remplaced by ridiculized view of characters

make characters gay cus we don’t know anything about them yes okay that’s why wolf star was a major part of the fandom. but the complete shift of every single characters identity is just bullshit.

[filmap]

Crimes of the Future David Cronenberg. 2022

Shipwreck Elefsina, Gulf of Eleusis, Greece See in map

See in imdb

[as-salty-as-the-sea]

so did you guys also cry at the end of vampire or are you normal

i’m actual so emotional over these two like they r so special to me

take a look under the cut for closeups and an extra sketchie :D

likes, reblogs and comments are always appreciated ^w^

references + inspo !!

- zoexkart on instagram

[tartrat]

Benedict Cumberbatch these two are coming for your roles of Sherlock Holmes and Dr Strange. Also everyone who thought that the teaser was for The Boy is Mine, I hope you’re doing ok.

[hoodiedeer]

d1_trainstation_04

artfight attack from last year for @cavern-of-remembrance 🖤

[doomed4art]

OC Card: Cadewynn & Etienne

[geuretea]

I remember the time I recreated the whole Undertale ruins on Minecraft for my friend to play it, I'll add the images under the cut

it even had a title screen

this is the part where the game tells you the lore. As my friend read the texts, me and my other friend acted as the humans and the monsters

mount ebott (sorry i broke a block)

when you fall into the cave you end up here

here me and my other friend acted as Flowey and Toriel

this place

here you had to get the right combination to open the door

the bridges and the levers

the dummy fight (that actually worked with command blocks)

the place where toriel helps you pressing a button

the superlooper long corridor

some traps where you can fall

the rock thing

this part took me a lot to make cause i had to make the wrong blocks to disappear when you stepped on them

more rock things

c h e e s e

i also made a mechanism to fight Napstablook

even more traps where you need to find the hidden lever

the balcony where you can get the toy knife

and the ruins ended just before entering toriel's house

This project was really huge, sorry for the large post lol 😭

[magic-and-sadness]

im sorry but how does bluetwelve studios expect me to play through all of stray in under 2 hours. i have to stop and observe every fine detail for at least 20 minutes per area. and also cry a lot that too

[statespoll]

Election 2022 Senate Prediction Map November 7, 2022(Final Map)

My analysis is neutral, not biased. Based on

1) Presidential Election 2020 Fox New Voter Analysis  

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis

2) Latest Poll(adjustment)

3) Voter registration statistics Trend + VBM

4) Oppostion Party’s Advantage on the Midterm

(more Rep % / less Dem % than Presidential Year)

My 2022 Senate Race Final Map on the Twitter:

Governor Races: PAGov Solid D / WIGov Lean R

* My Party ID % By States speculation post:

https://statespoll.com/post/699439301682954240 (October 29, 2022)

Last Updated: 11/7 7:30PM(EST)

I. BattleGround States

1. Pennsylvania

1) My Party ID speculation, PA

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 46% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Research Co. 11/2-11/6, 450 LV

https://researchco.ca/2022/11/07/2022-midterm-uspoli/

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Tables_StateRaces_USA_07Nov2022.pdf

Decided Voters: Fetterman 49 / Oz 48

Crosstabs:

DEM  Fetterman 94 / Oz 6

REP  Fetterman 12 / Oz 83

IND   Fetterman 50 / Oz 50

Considering Crosstabs It looks like oversampled REP.

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,021 LV (1,152 RV)

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-pennsylvania-2/

Fetterman 51 / Oz 45

Corsstabs:

Among White Voters: Fetterman 47 / Oz 48

(FYI 2020 Marist PA Final White Voters: BIden 48 / Trump 50 )

Philly Fetterman: 83 / Oz 10

Philly Suburbs:  Fetterman 56 / Oz 42

(3) Fox 10/26-10/30 1,005 RV

Fetterman 47 / Oz 43 (Alredy Voted/certained to vote)

R 45 / D 44 / IND 11 R+1 Samples

White Voters: Fetterman 45 / Oz 44 / Other 4

(2020 Fox PA final D +5 Samples, White Voters: Trump 51 / Biden 45)

https://foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-half-pennsylvanians-say-senate-debate-factor-their-vote

(4) Monmouth 10/27-10/31 608 LV

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_110222/

Fetterman 48 / Oz 44

Samples, Self Party ID: REP 37% / DEM 36% / Indy 27% R +1%

Crosstabs

White Voters: Fetterman 46 / Oz 47

(2020 Monmouth PA Final White voters: Trump 52 / Biden 43)

with Total D +5 samples.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_110220/

White: From R+9(2020) to R+1(2022)

(5) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 620 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Fetterman 49% / Oz 44%

Samples: R 36% / D 35% / IND 24% / Other 5%  R +1%  

Crosstabs

White: Fetterman 46 / Oz 48

Black: Fetterman 86 / Oz 6

Other(Mainly Hispanic/Asian): Fetterman 60 / Oz 36

My Adjusted %: Fetterman 50.0% / Oz 45.1%  D +4.9%

Fetterman: R(47)x9+D(46)x92+I(7)x49=49.98

Oz: R(47)x87+D(46)x3+I(7)x41=45.14

3) Pennsylvania Sen Race 2022 Forecast: Lean D

2. Arizona

1) My Party ID speculation, AZ

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 43% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 11/2-11/6 1,359 LV (1,157 RV)

Masters 50% / Kelly 49%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/11/dfp_az_final_midterm_tabs.pdf

(2) Marist 10/31-11/2 1,015 LV (1,157 RV)

LV Model: Kelly(D) 50 / Masters® 47

My Adjusted %: Kelly(D) +2.28%

Kelly(D): R(51)x10+D(43)x98+I(6)x53=50.42

Masters®: R(51)x88+D(43)x2+I(6)x40=48.14

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Marist-Poll_AZ-NOS-and-Tables_202211031029.pdf

(3) Civiqs 10/29-11/2. 852 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_AZ_banner_book_2022_11_4t7yks.pdf

Masters 49% / Kelly 49%

My Adjusted %: Masters(REP) +2.71%

Masters: R(50)x93+D(43)x1+I(7)x50=50.43

Kelly: R(50)x4+D(43)x99+I(7)x45=47.72

(4) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/26, 604 LV(Pre-victor drops out poll)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Kelly 51% / Masters 45%

Samples: R 33% / D 29% / IND 32% / Other 6%  R +4%  

My Adjusted %: Kelly 50.05% / Masters 48.17%. D +1.88%

Kelly: R(50)x10+D(43)x95+I(7)x60=50.05

Masters: R(50)x88+D(43)x4+I(7)x35=48.17

3) Arizona Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

3. Georgia

1) My Party ID speculation, GA

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%,

imo GA Early Voting Favors GOP(ESP race %)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Fox 10/26-10/30, 1,002 RV

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-walker-gains-ground-in-georgia-senate-race

Walker 46% / Warnock 45%

(2) NYT/Siena 10/24-10/27, 604 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Warnock 49% / Walker 46%

Samples: R 34% / D 33% / IND 26% / Other 7%  R +1%  

My Adjusted %: Walker 51.3% / Warnock 46.0%. Walker R +5.3%

Walker: R(51)x92+D(42)x4+I(7)x39=51.33

Warnock: R(51)x5+D(42)x95+I(7)x51=46.02

3) Georgia Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R~Lean R

4. Wisconsin

1) My Party ID speculation, WI

with leaner: REP 51% / DEM 42% / IND 7%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Data for Progress 10/14-10/22, 1,376 LV

Johnson 51% /  Barnes 46%

https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_wi_midterm_tabs.pdf

My Adjusted %: Johnshon +5.29%

Johnson: R(51%)x96%+D(42%)x3%+IND(7%)x45%= 51.95%

Barnes:R(51%)x4%+D(42%)x96%+IND(7%)x50%= 45.86%

3) Wisconsin 2022 Sen Race Forecast: Likely R

5. Nevada

1) My Party ID speculation, NV

with leaner: REP 47% / DEM 42% / IND 11%,

2) Latest Poll

(1) NYT/Siena 10/19-10/24, 885 LV

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/31/upshot/senate-polls-az-ga-nv-pa-crosstabs.html

Laxalt 47% / Masto 47%

Samples: D 32% / R 30% / IND 32% / Other 6%  D +2%  

My Adjusted %: Laxalt 51.1% / Masto 45.8% R +5.3%

Laxalt: R(47)x94+D(42)x4+I(11)x48=51.14

Masto: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+I(11)x40=45.81

(2) Data for Progress 10/13-10/19, 819 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_nv_midterm_crosstabs.pdf

Laxalt 49 / Masto 48

My Adjusted %: Laxalt R +3.79%

Laxalt: R(47)x93+D(42)x5+I(11)x44=50.65

Masto: R(47)x4+D(42)x94+I(11)x50=46.86

3) Nevada 2022 Forecast: Lean R

imo NV Early voting favors GOP

6. New Hampshire

1) My Party ID speculation, NH

with leaner: REP 48% / DEM 42% / Pure IND 10%

FYI) 2020 Fox voter analysis NH: REP 48% / DEM 45% / IND 7%

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/voter-analysis?state=NH

FYI) 2018 Fox voter analysis NHGov: REP 42% / DEM 42% / IND 15%

2020 NHPres wasn’t a competitive race. and Still It was R +3

This year is a Biden Midterm + NHSen is being a competitive race.

My speculation Party Breakdown in NH R 47 D 42 IND 11

2) Latest Poll

(1) UNH 11/2-11/6, 2,077 LV

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1717&context=survey_center_polls

Hassan 50% / Bolduc 48%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +1.84%

Bolduc: R(48)x94+D(42)x1+undeclared party(10)x45=50.04

Hassan: R(48)x4+D(42)x99+undeclared party(10)x47=48.2

(2) Saint Anselm College 10/28-10/29 1,541 LV

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/new-poll-saint-anselm-college-survey-center-shows-gop-momentum

Bolduc 48% / Hassan 47%

My Adjusted %: Bolduc(REP) +4.61%

Bolduc: R(47)x89+D(42)x5+undeclared party(11)x50=49.43

Hassan: R(47)x5+D(42)x93+undeclared party(11)x31=44.82

* undecieded. REP 4% / DEM 1% / Undeclared(Indy) 12% Which favors Bolduc more.

3) New Hampshire Sen 2022 Forecast: Tilt R

7. Colorado

1) My Party ID speculation, CO

with leaner: DEM 43% / REP 42% / IND 15%

FYI) DeSantis Endorsed O’dea (10/23)

2) Latest Poll

(1) Trafalgar 10/30-11/1. 1,084 LV

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/TRF-CO-General-1102-Poll-Report.pdf

Bennet (DEM) 47.6% / O’dea (REP) 46.1%.  Bennet(D) +1.5%

(2) Civiqs 10/15-10/18, 600 LV

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_CO_banner_book_2022_10_t23jdx.pdf

Poll results: Bennet (DEM) 54% / O’dea (REP) 41%.

Poll samples: D 39 / R 29 / IND 32 D +10% (imo oversampled D)

My adjusted % :Bennet 49 / O’dea 46  D +3%

Bennet: D(43)x96+R(42)x2+IND(15)x46=49.02

O’dea: D(43)x2+R(42)x92+IND(15)x44=46.01

(3) Marist 10/3-10/6. 983 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Marist-Poll-Colorado-NOS-and-Tables_202210071602.pdf

Bennet 49% / O’dea 43%

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49.4% / O’dea 45.9%.  Bennet +3.45%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x5%+I(15)x43%=48.54

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x90%+I(15)x40%=45.09%

(4) Data for Progress 10/3-10/6, 1,005 LV

Bennet 50% / O’dea 41%

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_co_midterm_toplines.pdf

My Adjusted %: Bennet 49% / O’dea 45.8%.  Bennet +3.2%

Bennet: D(43%)x93%+R(42%)x4%+I(17)x43%=48.98%

Odea: D(43%)x3%+R(42%)x89%+I(17)x42%=45.81%

3) Colorado Sen 2022 Forecast: Lean D

8. Ohio

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, REP 54% / DEM 41% / IND 5%

2) Latest Poll

(1) Marist 10/17-10/20, 1,141 LV

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2022-elections-in-ohio-2/

Poll samples: REP 37 DEM 34 IND 28

Poll results: Vance(REP) 46% / Ryan(DEM) 45% / Undecided 8%

My Adjusted %: R +8.35%

Vance: R(54)x87+D(41)x6+IND(5)x41= 51.49

Ryan: R(54)x7+D(41)x91+IND(5)x41= 43.14

(2) Cygnal 10/18-10/22, 1,547 LV

https://www.cygn.al/cygnal-momentum-tracking-poll-ohio-statewide-10-23-22/

Poll samples:  

Poll results: Vance 46.9 / Ryan 43.3

My Adjusted %: R +6.81%

Vance: R(54)x84+D(41)x5+IND(5)x40= 49.41

Ryan: R(54)x8+D(41)x88+IND(5)x44= 42.6

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

9. North Carolina

1) My Party ID speculation, NC

with leaner: REP 50% / DEM 42% / IND 8%

FYI) 2020 Fox analysis, NC: R 50 D 44 IND 6

And NC Voter regd have shifted as Trend R +1.6% since nov,2020

2) Latest Poll

(1) SurveyUSA 9/28-10/2, 677 LV

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=97eb868a-a6ae-4ed5-b5c1-2e8891119914

Poll samples: R 35% D 35% IND&Other 28%

Poll results: Budd(REP) 43% / Beasley(DEM) 42%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 48.4% / Beasley 40.74%.  R +7.66%

Budd: REP(50%)x87+DEM(42%)x5%+IND(8%)x35%= 48.4%

Beasley: REP(50%)x4%+DEM(42%)x85%+IND(8%)x38%= 40.74%

(2) Civiqs, 9/17-9/20, 586 LV

https://t.co/cwPoQfGcyG

Poll samples: R 36.8% D 36.1% IND&Other 27.1%

Poll results: Beasley(DEM) 49% / Budd(REP) 48%

Adjusted: Budd(REP) 52.0% / Beasley 45.1%  R +6.9%

Budd: REP(50%)x94+DEM(42%)x3%+IND(8%)x47%= 52.02%

Beasley: REP(50%)x1%+DEM(42%)x97%+IND(8%)x48%= 45.08%

3) NC Sen 2022 Forecast: Likely R

[mapsontheweb]

The global state of liberal democracy in 2022 where each country's size is distorted relative to its value of liberal democracy.

by researchremora

[ifyouknowmenahyoudontt]

coming out as an og marauders girly: i HATE jegulus.it makes no sense.james would NEVER.regulus wasn’t the rebel you make him to be.he didn’t do it out of a feeling of justice.it was ego.you all make out regulus what sirius actually was.this ship legit ruined this fandom.jily forever.james and lily are soulmates.its okay to have a straight ship relax.lily being a wife and a mother doesn’t make her less of a strong woman.enough of this bullshit.i get that this fandom is based on imagination and headcannons but they need to make a little bit of sense tho. james would never date a death eater.or someone from his brother’s abusive horrible family.jily my beloved you will live.

[filmap]

Les cinq diables / The Five Devils Léa Mysius. 2022

House 39 Rue des Grandes Rousses, 38520 Le Bourg-d'Oisans, France See in map

See in imdb

[ivan-fyodorovich-k]

Do you ever become hyper aware of the fact that you are existing now in this very moment, which was true yesterday, yesterday you lived consciously through every moment, taking in sights and experiences

Do you then think about how everything that is happening to you in this moment that is real and immediate is something you will almost certainly not remember? As is true of almost every moment experienced thus?