#ceasefire analysis

[nammythings]

Ceasefire or Intermission?

Peace is not a one-sided burden. And India will no longer pay for it alone. The world may still be calling it a skirmish. On May 9, 2025, what had long simmered beneath diplomatic surfaces turned kinetic. The India-Pakistan conflict has escalated into a significant military confrontation, with both nations engaging in airstrikes and missile exchanges. India’s Operation Sindoor targeted…

[sugas6thtooth]

The Feelings Of The Average Israeli Occupational Soldier: A Quick Analysis By James Ray

If you haven't already, follow him on tiktok. (@jamesgetspolitical) He gives constant updates on the genocide in Palestine but also offers food for thought in his content.

Free Palestine, End The Occupation🇵🇸‼️

[vyorei]

Sultan Barakat says it's too soon to be sure of what's happening regarding the ceasefire and captive discussions

[xtruss]

Three Ways How 'Terrorist, Corrupt, Thug And Expired Zelensky’ Can Be Ousted As Chief Obstacle To Peace In Ukraine

— Sputnik International | Friday March 28, 2025

Sputnik International, © AP Photo

Volodymyr Zelensky, with his addiction to Western backing and reliance on homegrown neo-Nazi groups, has emerged as probably the biggest obstacle on the road to peace in Ukraine.

However, there are three ways to diminish his influence, Dr. Marco Marsili, a researcher at Cà Foscari University of Venice and former election observer for the OSCE/ODIHR, tells Sputnik.

While Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding elections during martial law – which Zelensky imposed to remain in the office – Western powers could “push for a conditional ceasefire linked to lifting martial law.” This would result in Zelensky facing “domestic and international demands to hold elections.”

As the US and Russia improve their bilateral relations, Washington ��could pressure Zelensky to cede authority to a transitional body.”

Last but not least, there’s the matter of “internal fractures,” as “Ukraine’s military setbacks and resource shortages have eroded public confidence.” Thus, a negotiated ceasefire, “might empower opposition figures or civil society groups to demand leadership changes, particularly if Western guarantees (e.g., postwar security) are conditional on governance reforms.”

There are several reasons why Ukraine should be put under international administration:

With Zelensky’s presidential term having expired in May 2024 and elections in Ukraine postponed indefinitely under martial law, he and his cronies are simply devoid of legitimacy.

The failed Minsk Agreements and the Gomel Talks of 2022 showcase the inability or unwillingness of the current Ukrainian leadership to “adhere to peace frameworks without external oversight.”

Thus, it seems increasingly likely that only a “capable government” elected in Ukraine under international supervision “could sign ‘legitimate’ peace treaties recognized globally.”

“In conclusion, Zelensky’s removal is less about coercion and more about creating conditions where his continued rule becomes untenable — whether through constitutional deadlines, Western realpolitik, or war fatigue,” Dr. Marcili explains.

[quillsword]

Putin Doesn't Seem to Have Gotten the Memo

Good grief. If Putin thinks he’s bringing his A game he better have something special up his sleeve. Playing dominance games with Trump is playing with fire. Dominance games? The silly stunts like being late for meetings or in this case a phone call and making others wait for you. It’s the political version of fighting for pole position. There are a lot of times when this sort of nonsense…

[fandfnews]

Hamas’s Hostage Stalemate Ends Ceasefire, Media Spins the Narrative

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, spanning nearly two months, has collapsed, with Israel resuming airstrikes on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) targets in Gaza this week. Mainstream news outlets swiftly reported that Israel had broken the ceasefire, framing it as the aggressor unwilling to pursue peace. However, this narrative misrepresents the reality: the ceasefire disintegrated…

[airwavesdotblog]

Cease-Fire Efforts Intensify as Hamas Considers Israeli Proposal Amid Rafah Tensions

May 11, 2024 There has been yet another update on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. Here are some key points from the latest updates: Evacuations Ordered: Israel has ordered new evacuations in the Gaza city of Rafah, affecting tens of thousands of people as it prepares to expand its military operation. Humanitarian Concerns: The United Nations has warned that a full-scale invasion…

[soon-palestine]

Israel is burning and bulldozing tree crops at historic rates. These trees would take years to grow back - and that's without factoring in the time it would take to detoxify the soil. (2/13)

It gets worse. 23% of greenhouses have been destroyed in their entirety. (3/13)

Destroying up to 48% of tree crops and 23% of greenhouses is a horrendous crime in itself, but, when you factor in Israel blocking food aid and literally killing food aid professionals, you start to see the scale of the crime in full. (4/13)

Look at the difference. See the land before. See it after. Do not turn away. (5/13)

Restoring the land will be profoundly difficult. The soil now contains asbestos, heavy metals, and even undetonated explosives. (6/13)

Waste disposal infrastructure is in ruins. Sewage treatment systems are failing. (7/13)

People are burning plastic to heat food. Fumes from bombs hang in the air. (8/13)

This is not "just" about nature. This is about the food and the air and the water and the land being deprived of life. It is about a whole population being denied its sustenance. (9/13)

A comprehensive report about this issue is in the Guardian. They are one of the few publications to cover the siege on Gaza from this angle. The full story is here: (10/13)

There is also some reporting on this in InsideClimateNews: (11/13)

Here at Climate Defiance we have been clear in calling for a ceasefire since October. We wage our peaceful struggle because we believe in the inherent value of humanity - and in the need to see the humanity in each other. (12/13)

We fight for thriving ecosystems because we fight for life. Both are under attack right now. Do not look away. Do not stay silent. Moments like these are a test of our moral fabric. (13/13)

[tamamita]

not trying to be disrespectful, but how can I explain why protests against hamas are happening in north Gaza?

Ironic how these Zionists scum only decide to listen out to Palestinians when they show any form of dissent against Hamas, but in every other case, it's pallywood, it's fake, they're being controlled, they're manipulated and etc. But not in this case, a few hundred Palestinians affected by the war decided to go out on the streets and protest, a right that Hamas provides them. But these Palestinians somehow reflect the will of the 2 million Palestinians in Ghazza. What a joke. Yet, we got millions of Israelis protesting for a ceasefire and calling for Bibi's resignation, literally every week for the past two years. They're not very much in the position to say shit.

This was staged by the Palestinian authority, which called on Palestinians to protest against Hamas a few days earlier. The PA is part of the national Bourgeoisie and are in cahoots with the Zionists. Anyone with a sense of material analysis can obviously puzzle it together: it's an attempt by the Zionists and its puppet government in the west bank to get the Palestinians to submit to the Israeli occupation and its fascist policies.

God's curse be upon Netanyahu and the Zionists

Victory to the resistance.

[probablyasocialecologist]

Reporting from multiple outlets suggests that Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, played a decisive role in forcing Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand. In a January 7 press conference from Mar-a-Lago, Trump warned that “all hell will break out” if a hostage deal wasn’t reached before his inauguration. “It wasn’t a warning to Hamas. It was a warning to Netanyahu,” Steve Bannon told Politico, which also quoted former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert as saying Netanyahu agreed to the deal “because he’s afraid of Trump.” “The prime minister was dragged into this deal against his will and was unable to resist. He understood the consequences of disappointing Trump even before he reached the White House,” a Netanyahu associate told Al-Monitor, which also cited a former top Israeli official who said, “Netanyahu knows that with Trump he will not be able to wipe the floor as he did with Democratic presidents—like Clinton, Obama and Biden.” Witkoff reportedly told the Israeli prime minister to his face: “Don’t fuck this up.” And Netanyahu has already paid a political price: this past weekend, Israel’s settler-extremist national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from Netanyahu’s shaky far-right governing coalition over the ceasefire deal, after standing with Netanyahu for fifteen months of genocidal warfare backed by the Biden administration.

[...]

In the same week that the ceasefire deal was tentatively announced, two other stories broke that spotlighted the extent of Biden’s moral and political failure in Palestine. One was The Lancet’s publication, subsequently covered in the New York Times, of a peer-reviewed study of traumatic injury deaths in the Gaza Strip from October 7, 2023 through June 30, 2024. The study estimated that the Palestinian Ministry of Health underreported such deaths by 41 percent during that period, and that over 64,000 Palestinians, many of them women and children, had died from traumatic injury, a figure that does not include the untold thousands more who died of starvation or disease resulting from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza’s infrastructure (a previous analysis published by The Lancet estimated total Palestinian deaths to that point at over 186,000). Another six months of nonstop devastation in Gaza have passed since the data for The Lancet study was collected. The exact casualty numbers may never be known and in a sense are irrelevant, as no one seriously doubts that Israel has inflicted indiscriminate collective punishment against a captive civilian population, in what has been declared a genocide by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and multiple world-renowned genocide experts (including some initial skeptics), and ruled at least “plausibly” genocidal by the International Court of Justice. The other story that broke last week was an Institute for Middle East Understanding poll that made the most plausible case to date that Biden’s handling of Gaza might have cost Harris the election. Unlike most polls, which focus on what voters overall in 2024 prioritized in the presidential race—typically, economic issues like inflation—the IMEU poll focuses on the millions of Biden 2020 voters who opted for a candidate other than Harris in 2024, whether that meant Trump or a third-party candidate. Among this subset of the electorate, a 29 percent plurality named “ending Israel’s violence in Gaza” as the most important issue in deciding their vote, with even higher percentages in the key battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While no single factor can account for Harris’s shutout in all seven battleground states or Trump’s popular vote win, the IMEU poll provides strong evidence for what seemed anecdotally obvious throughout last year: the Biden-Harris team’s unapologetic support for Israel’s genocide alienated meaningful numbers of potential supporters.

21 January 2025

[centrally-unplanned]

Recently I have heard a bunch of people discussing Sarah Paine, a professor at the US Naval War College. Dwarkesh Patel uploaded a bunch of her lectures to his YouTube, Noah Smith (jokingly) referred to her as the One Good Historian, etc. She appeals to, in particular, the "neo hawk" camp around rising competition with China.

She had a video on Japan in WW2 which, given that that is my area of expertise, I thought I would watch...and it is weird, man. She has the cultural bent to her analysis - she approaches analyzing Japan's strategic decision-making from in part their cultural obsessions with bushido, the imperial system, etc. This is an "old guard" approach that modern historiography tends to downplay - for example, interviews with captured POWs (who didn't surrender) during the war generally showed not that they were motivated by a deep code of honor (though ofc it was there), but by propaganda from their own government that if captured the US would torture and execute them. Bansai charging makes a bit more sense now, right? But Paine isn't dogmatic about it, and it isn't like the cultural factors played no role in Japan's thinking, so this is a matter of taste.

But much more off-putting are these sort of "communist menace" vibes that run through it, where she portrays Japan as inordinately concerned with the communist forces in China as some sort of big threat. That just is not true, they did not consider them very relevant, and it leads to a bunch of weird statements. Like okay, ~27 minutes in, we have this quote:

[China in the 1930's] is a mess. It is coalescing into a bilateral competition between the Nationalists under Chiang Kai Shek and the Communists under Mao Zedong, fighting with increasing dosages of Soviet aid. And the Japanese are appalled with all of this, and so it is time to surprise everybody again in 1937 - when they invade all the way down the Chinese coast.

Essentially pitching a narrative of growing communist/nationalist civil war provoking Japan into action to intervene. Which, I am sorry, what? This is a map of China in 1937

With Nationalist China/The KMT ruling most of the country in some form and the Communist forces ruling a rump state fortress in the mountains. By 1934 the civil war was pretty much on a standstill, and in 1936 (involving a kidnapping of Chiang, diplomacy baby!) they even signed a ceasefire to unite against the Japanese. And while she can weasel-word her way out of this, most people's read of that phrasing of "Soviet aid" would think it was going to the Communist forces to help them, right? But that isn't true! The Soviets in the 1930's were giving far more aid to the Nationalists, backing them as the obvious winners and hoping to court them as an ally against Japan.

There was no rising communist threat in China in the 1930's - instead there was a growing unity in China under the KMT to oppose the Japanese that was causing Japanese military planners to fret. Which would justify Japan's "surprise intervention"...if they did that intentionally, but they didn't! The war was started essentially by mistake, and Japan (and China) both tried to negotiate a ceasefire multiple times before it spiraled out of control due to aggressive local commanders.

(This also is the case for Japan's "other" surprise she mentions, the invasion of Manchuria - it was a strategic ploy to expand the empire, yes, but by the local 'Kwangtung Army' in open defiance of the government's orders! Not exactly 'high strategy'.)

In isolation any one of these - and other examples in the video - could just be awkward phrasings or interpretive differences, but in aggregate I think this is a level of revisionism that I can't stomach as being in good faith. It is just one video but these are pretty basic mistakes to be making. I don't think this person is a good historian, which definitely makes me question her expertise on the present-day CCP.

[vyorei]

Analysis from Marwan Bishara on the current situadtion regarding the delay in captive release

[ai-manre]

Tom Cooper, a celebrated Austrian Avian Combat specialist has given his analysis on the Indo-Pak conflict: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/illusions-and-realities-of-cross-b6c

Some excerpts:

And

And

And

And

And

And

And

And

And

India won but we are too mature of a people to do anything about it. We only wanted to dismantle the terrorist bases that Pakistan sponsors and teach it to never harm innocent indians again, and then we gave up our position of power and agreed to a ceasefire because we never wanted anything other than being left alone.

This is what the chest thumpers on Tumblr don't understand, they don't understand pakistan, they don't understand terror, and most importantly, they don't understand India. In its vast immense history, India has never tried to hurt or invade other land or peoples. India is inherently a peaceful country in a way no others are, our heritage of dharmic tolerance make us so, India never attacks unprovoked and never does any harm more than it needs to do.

[self-loving-vampire]

Reminded of that time when Trump came to power Gaza ceasefire had just been signed there was a lot of "of course Trump led to a ceasefire, supporting Israel is no longer materially beneficial to the empire and he realizes that but those stupid libs kept saying he would be worse for Palestine".

And then the ceasefire immediately unraveled, Trump went to do exactly what he said he would in terms of destroying the pro-Palestine movement and attempting to deport its supporters, military assistance to Israel continued, and he even proposed a US takeover of Gaza.

Maybe your "materialist analysis" ignored some important factors there, sis.

[primtrevors]

“After that fight with June, Nick is disheartened. After the conversation with Rose, he becomes more determined to choose Gilead — so he boards that plane to help bomb Boston. He had choices, yet he chose Gilead.”

Okay. Fair enough. Logically, that tracks.

But — beg your pardon?

Is this really the same Nick who risked his life over and over again — killing, betraying, saving — all for June? The same Nick who saved her husband, her friends, even when he believed he meant nothing to her, that he wasn’t chosen, and felt utterly discouraged?

The same man who, in s4, worked through the Marthas to locate June just so he could call a ceasefire?

I just wonder — would that same Nick really choose Gilead over June?

Would he really choose to end her life?

But you know what?

Forget it. All this shit and analysis above don’t matter.

They just want him dead — so let him board that damn plane.

[attari786]

The World Criticizes US Veto on Ceasefire in UN Security Council Regarding Israel’s Gaza Conflict

The US has again rejected a draft UN Security Committee (UNSC) goal on Israel's conflict on Gaza, provoking inescapable analysis from opponents and partners the same.

For Read More Click the link below