Crappy Political Prediction:
I don't think Trump will be president again. I don't know if he'll end up in prison before the election or after, or at all, but I don't think a second term is in his future. I think the GOP is going to pivot to maintain power *and* calm some of the extremist shit around them (while not actually doing anything). Business is business and it's not hard to see with the number of strikes going on, that there's a massive mood shift away from far-right politics in this country. In spite all of their gerrymandering propaganda BS, the fascist views of the GOP are not popular nor widely-held and they know it. They'll switch tactics as necessary. If they can't force the country to accept their neo-nazism, they'll just keep the downward slide going.
DeSantis isn't a viable candidate: he's off the rails, but he's a useful tool. They'll let him carve Florida out and use it as their lesson to the rest of the country. RFK jr is an ego-driven distraction. That really leaves one guy out there and the grooming has already begun.
The media is already depicting Mike Pence as this moral guy who stood up to Trump. It's pure bullshit, but it's the narrative they're going with. Set between the two extremes of Trump and DeSantis, Pence seems like a calm elder statesmen, a "principled conservative" and another Reagan in the offing.
Biden has dug himself into too many holes: his stand on migrants, the massive failures over Covid (putting the economy before people's lives and insisting we all return to in-person jobs that can be done from home is ableist af and disrespectful to the million-plus who have died in this country alone or the millions now suffering with long Covid), the blind support for Israel as some of the worst of its apartheid policies are widely condemned; the country is under massive labor strikes on his watch as he refuses to support raising the federal minimum wage during an economic depression where gas and grocery prices are overwhelming people, especially families, and assistance is even harder to get. He's barely visible to the public and doesn't speak to the country much at all. This just fuels rumors of his competence (also ageist and ableist, but we're talking perceptions here and how the media will use them against him. Tends to work).
Oh, and he still hasn't declared a climate emergency during one of the worst years of extreme weather we've seen so far.
Yes, he's put more progressive judges on the bench, but he's failed to expand the Supreme Court to counter their deep corruption. This is nonsensical. As the invasion of Ukraine continues, the cost of sending military aid balloons and that creates mistrust the GOP will happily exploit (and Putin will applaud).
Biden is in his 80s during a time when elder politicians like Mitch McConnell and Dianne Feinstein are being clearly abused for political gain. The GOP continues to rub his son Hunter's runaway capitalism in his face, even as they can't make anything else stick.
Pence is 64 and gets around.
He's also notorious for his evangelical beliefs that led to some of the worst anti-LGBT legislation in Indiana's history. He supports the end of public schooling, tried pushing "creationism" against science in public school curricula and has promoted conversion therapy.
Pence supports the coal industry and has shown no interest in the climate crisis or offering any solutions for it. While governor of Indiana, he worked against any plans to curb carbon emissions.
His tenure in Indiana saw a return to HIV outbreaks thanks to Pence's stand on needle exchange programs. His views couldn't be more anti-LGBT.
He's pro-gun, anti-public health, anti-abortion. But he's also fairly soft-spoken about it all and easily flipflops his positions when its convenient.
A quiet fascist, in other words.
He enabled Trump's worst behaviors and actions, including the assassination of an Iranian general, lied to and misled the people throughout the remainder of Trump's presidency over Covid and its effects, and still got called a "decent guy" by Joe Biden.
It will be fairly easy for the press to spin Pence as a victim of Trump and even heroic for "standing up to" the orange menace (but only when politically expedient), whose followers called for Pence's execution following the events of January 6, 2020. He'll be touted as a moderate, an antidote to Maga-extremism and the worst of his own beliefs and actions will be suppressed and conveniently shoved under a rug.
Since at least 2022, Pence has been positioning himself as this moderate voice, assailing the GOP's stance on Putin, while doubling down on his stance for "parents rights" -- the anti-trans dog whistle. He's old-school GOP, playing nice with Dems, while subverting democracy the way they used to do it: in the dark.
He and Biden are almost weird mirrors of the other, but Pence is the younger version.
Dems might be hopeful that Pence will be so divisive a candidate for the GOP that Biden will prevail over that alone. Liberal political analysts love suggesting the GOP will follow Trump right into the ground. I don't think so.
I think Pence could very well be their not-so-surprise candidate.
Half this country is perfectly fine with the far-right's turn to explicit fascism. The GOP will want to put a polite face on it.
Biden and the perpetually unseen Harris will have nothing to offer against it. He coasted into the Dem nomination without doing a thing and they'll try to coast again, thinking the country is sick of the GOP and Trump. Maybe they'll be right, who knows.
But they're not inspiring people to rush out and vote for them, is the point. Dems and their lack of energy and momentum toward dealing with the climate crisis and burgeoning fascism is a real problem. It is *the* problem. It makes them look more like enablers.
People showed up in unprecedented numbers to vote Trump out; they didn't have any choice over the Democratic candidate, but I don't know anyone who was truly enthusiastic for Biden. There's the odd blue maga out there who tries to spin it, but it's hard when the man himself reneges then futzes on his campaign promises, like student debt. Hard to spin him as a good president when he offers gas and oil contracts while the world's science community is screaming over tipping points and globally we are experiencing the last step toward the wet bulb moment.
Pence could mop the floor with him.
And that's when fascism becomes "respectable" and not an "extremist" position.
Because demoralized Dems might stay home next year (listen to Black folks on this one). But the GOP won't.
Organizing against this system is the only way forward. Dems won't get us there.
You want change? Support unions, support strikes and vote in every local election to put progressives on school boards and energy boards and every other community organization, including libraries.
This is where the big differences are made: a progressive community can stand against its would-be oppressors. There are more of us. We need to act like it.
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Federal regulators on Tuesday [April 23, 2024] enacted a nationwide ban on new noncompete agreements, which keep millions of Americans — from minimum-wage earners to CEOs — from switching jobs within their industries.
The Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday afternoon voted 3-to-2 to approve the new rule, which will ban noncompetes for all workers when the regulations take effect in 120 days [So, the ban starts in early September, 2024!]. For senior executives, existing noncompetes can remain in force. For all other employees, existing noncompetes are not enforceable.
[That's right: if you're currently under a noncompete agreement, it's completely invalid as of September 2024! You're free!!]
The antitrust and consumer protection agency heard from thousands of people who said they had been harmed by noncompetes, illustrating how the agreements are "robbing people of their economic liberty," FTC Chair Lina Khan said.
The FTC commissioners voted along party lines, with its two Republicans arguing the agency lacked the jurisdiction to enact the rule and that such moves should be made in Congress...
Why it matters
The new rule could impact tens of millions of workers, said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist and president of the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank.
"For nonunion workers, the only leverage they have is their ability to quit their job," Shierholz told CBS MoneyWatch. "Noncompetes don't just stop you from taking a job — they stop you from starting your own business."
Since proposing the new rule, the FTC has received more than 26,000 public comments on the regulations. The final rule adopted "would generally prevent most employers from using noncompete clauses," the FTC said in a statement.
The agency's action comes more than two years after President Biden directed the agency to "curtail the unfair use" of noncompetes, under which employees effectively sign away future work opportunities in their industry as a condition of keeping their current job. The president's executive order urged the FTC to target such labor restrictions and others that improperly constrain employees from seeking work.
"The freedom to change jobs is core to economic liberty and to a competitive, thriving economy," Khan said in a statement making the case for axing noncompetes. "Noncompetes block workers from freely switching jobs, depriving them of higher wages and better working conditions, and depriving businesses of a talent pool that they need to build and expand."
Real-life consequences
In laying out its rationale for banishing noncompetes from the labor landscape, the FTC offered real-life examples of how the agreements can hurt workers.
In one case, a single father earned about $11 an hour as a security guard for a Florida firm, but resigned a few weeks after taking the job when his child care fell through. Months later, he took a job as a security guard at a bank, making nearly $15 an hour. But the bank terminated his employment after receiving a letter from the man's prior employer stating he had signed a two-year noncompete.
In another example, a factory manager at a textile company saw his paycheck dry up after the 2008 financial crisis. A rival textile company offered him a better job and a big raise, but his noncompete blocked him from taking it, according to the FTC. A subsequent legal battle took three years, wiping out his savings.
-via CBS Moneywatch, April 24, 2024
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Note:
A lot of people think that noncompete agreements are only a white-collar issue, but they absolutely affect blue-collar workers too, as you can see from the security guard anecdote.
In fact, one in six food and service workers are bound by noncompete agreements. That's right - one in six food workers can't leave Burger King to work for Wendy's [hypothetical example], in the name of "trade secrets." (x, x, x)
Noncompete agreements also restrict workers in industries from tech and video games to neighborhood yoga studios. "The White House estimates that tens of millions of workers are subject to noncompete agreements, even in states like California where they're banned." (x, x, x)
The FTC estimates that the ban will lead to "the creation of 8,500 new businesses annually, an average annual pay increase of $524 for workers, lower health care costs, and as many as 29,000 more patents each year for the next decade." (x)
Clearer explanation of noncompete agreements below the cut.
Noncompete agreements can restrict workers from leaving for a better job or starting their own business.
Noncompetes often effectively coerce workers into staying in jobs they want to leave, and even force them to leave a profession or relocate.
Noncompetes can prevent workers from accepting higher-paying jobs, and even curtail the pay of workers not subject to them directly.
Of the more than 26,000 comments received by the FTC, more than 25,000 supported banning noncompetes.
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