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wutheringmights · 1 month

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please please please explain how the bullshit military death cult in Fourth Wing is unsustainable. I need more Iron Flame slander in my life lol

I may have chosen the wrong phrasing last night. It’s less about the sustainability of the magical dragon country’s military college, and more about how much Yarros’s tendency to use specific numbers riles me up. Very specifically, a graphic at the beginning of Iron Flame.

(Note: I only got a little bit over 200 pages into Iron Flame before I had to return it to the library; if there is an universe rebuttal to any of this, I may not have reached it yet; I also do not have the book in front of my to double check specific numbers, but luckily Yarros’s Specific Numbers have rustled my jimmies so much that I have been spamming my group chats about them so I inevitably wrote them all down.)

The graphic in question is this:

It illustrates the structure of the titular Fourth Wing. As you can see, it is made out of 3 sections that are then divided into 3 squads. You will notice two important notes on this graphic:

Each squad contains 15-20 people

Each of the four wings that make up the dragon rider cadets in the military academy has the same layout

With this information, I should be able to more or less calculate the number of dragon riders attending the military academy.

In theory, the fourth wing has 8 people in leadership positions, and 136 to 180 squad members. That’s a total of 144 to 188 people in the fourth wing.

If the fourth wing is identical to the other three wings, that means that there are anywhere from 576 to 752 dragon rider cadets across three grade levels. That’s already a pretty small number, but this is an exclusive military program. It’s not an unreasonable.

Except it’s actually impossible for there to be 576 to 752 dragon rider cadets. Why do I know that? Because Yarros already gave us a Specific Number.

Let’s rewind. In Fourth Wing, it’s established that you cannot advance beyond your first year unless you bond with a dragon. If you do not bond with a dragon, you repeat the year until you either bond or die trying. There are also only a select few dragons who are willing to bond each year.

Yarros, of course, told us specifically how many dragons were willing to bond not only for that current freshman class, but for the two years previous:

1st year: 100 dragons*

2nd year: 137 dragons

3rd year: 163 dragons

(*actually, it was 101 but two dragons, in a super special unprecedented move, bonded with the same person; I’m trying to count the cadets, not the dragons so this really does not matter)

That means that there are around 400 dragon rider cadets, which is way less than what the info graphic implied. You can argue that the missing 176 cadets are those who did not bond with any dragons, but I highly doubt they would make much of a difference. Why? Because dragon rider cadets keep dying.

I kept track of how many people were dying in Fourth Wing. By the end of that book, there were less than 80 bonded cadets still alive. Yarros then contradicted herself in Iron Flame by stating that there were 89 cadets in the second year. This isn’t because a bunch of cadets suddenly bonded with dragons and advanced a year; that only happens in a one a year ceremony. Yarros is just bad with numbers, which shows how silly I am for going to this much trouble trying to prove her wrong.

All that’s to say that I’ll split the difference and say that 85 cadets were still alive at the end of the first year. That means that there is a 15% death rate between bonding with a dragon and getting to the end of the first year.

That means that by the time each class ended their first year, this about how many dragon rider cadets there should be:

1st year 85 cadets

2nd year: 117 cadets

3rd year: 139 cadets

That’s 341 people across all four wings. That means each wing has about 85 people.

But wait! People die beyond their first year. There’s an ever decreasing number of cadets each year. If we assume that 15% death rate is consistent each year, that means that by graduation day, each year has:

1st year: 85 cadets

2nd year: 100 cadets

3rd year: 102 cadets

That’s 287 cadets across all four wings, or 71 people a wing. I need not remind you how that is far below our predicted 144 to 188 per a wing.

And I haven’t even mentioned that not every dragon available to bond even bonds. So those starting numbers are already the best case scenario where every possible dragon selects a cadet. Our actual class numbers are probably 10 to 20 people smaller, and that’s before the numerous deaths.

When I started Fourth Wing, I inferred that the incoming freshman class started with about 700 people. (Each of the freshman dorm floors hold 156 people; there are at least three but it makes more sense for there to be a floor for each wing. Sixty-seven freshman died on the parapets. That’s a total of 691 freshmen, which I rounded up to 700.)

Xaden (terrible name) has a speech where he claims that 1/2 of the incoming class will die by the end of the first year, 1/3 by the second, and 1/3 by the third. He’s probably just trying to scare the newbies, but let’s take him at his word anyway.

According to his estimation, by the time the freshman class graduation, 172 people should still be alive. That’s a 21% survival rate, according to Xaden. That is somehow less severe than what is actually happening in the books.

There's never a point in time in the story where we acknowledge that the class sizes are this small. Everyone is dying, and there always seems to be more nameless faces than not. Yet, as all evidence suggests, there's not even enough people in the entire dragon rider curriculum to fill up a movie theater.

Ultimately, the numbers don’t really matter. What matters is that this fantasy military system is wildly inefficient. I understand on a trope-level why it has to be deadly. New Adult, the gangly older sister of YA, loves a good deadly game of wits and wile. Yarros was commissioned to write a romantasy story, and by god she was going to write the most marketable one possible. But you would also assume that Rebecca “second generation army brat who loves military heroes and has been blissfully married to her for over twenty years” would have a better understanding of how the military works.

On the most basic of levels, you win a war by having the most people still alive at the end. Everyone knows this. It’s not that hard. It’s in the best interest of the brass to keep your soldiers alive. When that best interest gets screwed over, it’s usually because of economic issues (like being able to afford the supplies needed to keep your troops alive), or prejudice (soldiers from persecuted demographics being less worthy of better food/ammo/missions, under qualified officials earning their jobs via privilege, etc.).

That is in itself another gross simplification. My point is that there’s no good reason why you would kill your own troops before they can even reach the battlefield. That’s a waste of resources! I don’t care if the dragons demand a blood sacrifice, or whatever. A practical military leadership would find some way to reroute failed rider cadets to a different career track before they needlessly died in training. The training can be as dangerous as you want, but for world building sake, be practical about how wars work. At least acknowledge that the military’s favorite canon fodder aren’t soldiers, but foreign civilians.

Believe it or not, but I actually don’t really care that the worldbuilding is nonsense. Can I write a needlessly long essay about how the numbers don’t add up? Sure, but who cares? It’s just bad in a normal way. I’m more than happy to let other people harp on it.

What is interesting is the way that Yarros views the morality of the military. It’s one thing for something to be pro-military. It’s another when your book’s thesis comes down to “it’s morally wrong for the big, powerful, totally not American, country to not provide military intervention to smaller, poorer foreign countries that are being viciously attacked by a seemingly unbeatable, dehumanized enemy.” Yarros doesn’t even try to cover it up; Xaden makes a giant, righteous speech about how they have a moral duty to protect citizens, to actually quote the book, “beyond our borders.”

As I said when I first read this: what the fuck?

Rebecca “second generation army brat who loves military heroes and has been blissfully married to hers for over twenty years” Yarros claims she is writing a series about the dangers of censorship. See how callous we are for letting other people die, and then covering it up? Yet, she mindlessly reproduces that idealized justification we’ve been fed for decades. Yarros, it’s never about helping civilians. I know you’re a biased army wife, but you know about the oil and the military industrial complex. You know America is not the good guy.

Moreso, the in-book movement to wage a war “beyond our borders” is labeled as a rebellion. According to this series, it’s counterculture to want military intervention overseas. Yes, Yarros is writing the world’s most marketable book. In a post Hunger Games society, there must be a little rebellion sprinkled in there. But to frame the desire to fight a war as any form of counterculture is downright insidious.

Fourth Wing is a book that looks you in the eye and tells you that the government is lying to you-- the war beyond our borders is necessary, that if we do not send the army to fight our inhuman enemies, they will hurt not only our poorer, less fortunate allies but also our homeland. War is a morale imperative.

I haven’t finished Iron Flame yet. Perhaps this rant is premature. Maybe the series turns itself around. But as one can imagine, I don’t trust Rebecca “second generation army brat who loves military heroes and has been blissfully married to hers for over twenty years” Yarros to have thought it through all the way. Just a gut feeling. Who can say? If I am wrong, I would be more than happy to eat my words, though. I would love to be wrong.

Me being wrong means that the most compelling reasons why Fourth Wing is bad really is the bad worldbuilding, prose, romance, characters, action, lore, smut, dialogue, editing, and everything else. There’s already a hundred big brained book reviewers who are making a video essay career off of telling you that in five hours or less. I respect the hustle. Personally, I never want to hear about this series again unless it’s about how Yarros built her blockbuster book series on conservative ideals of militarism and foreign policy, and then had the audacity to tell you that’s what it means to be a rebel.

#you asked for the number situation and I gave you the conservatism rant ooops #you would think I would learn from captive prince to save my dissertations for when i've read the whole thing but like i said. this matters #to me a bit more than the numbers #me rambling #me reading #ask #empyrean-thrones #fourth wing #the empyrean #iron flame #bookblr #bookish #books #books and reading #maybe if I spread this around more some tiktok star will steal my argument and this will become the mainstream opinion lol

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