#from a technical standpoint it's not difficult. but I find it really hard to pick my pencil up sometimes.

[clavis-baby]

The (possible) Downfall of Obey Me

5-16-21 (when writing this the event toys out)

(Tbh this post is just be trying to be naïve towards Solomare and at ever aspectthat I mention you have every single right to be upset and mad)

Okay so it’s no secret that Obey me is making bank and is very very obviously trying to make us money on the game with even trying to make us spend money with original stuff that was free to now secretly changing some mechanics behind our back

Here’s a post by @thalfox https://thalfox.tumblr.com/post/653994972840919040/i-just-noticed-a-little-bit-ago-that-the-barbatos that dose a really good job at explaining everything that has changed

(also this isn’t a hate thing fox has actually done a great work explaining everything to good detail of what has changed)

With all the changes I don’t think that it’s shocking to say that players are leavening the fandom because of many reasons to the games getting stupidly harder to even the game development

This is just a heads up this in no way is a post saying “hey this is why you shouldn’t feel this way” I kinda just wanted to see from a business standpoint and be naïve of what’s happening you have every reason to be mad at Solomare because even me I’ve been playing sense week 2 of game released and I’m only on lesson 42 every counter argument that I’m going to make I have complained about at some point

Arguments

(P.s grammar is really bad it’s sort of turned into more of a rant I wrote this at 5 am without any sleep so sorry)

1. Obey me is marketed as a free to play game

First there are many reasons people are mad this main thing that I hear about is from a lot of people is that is a “free game” which lets be honest is ridiculously hard

But still it is still essentially a “free to play game” I personally feel like the main prolog is lessons 1-20 to introduce all the characters to understand and getting the just on how to play the game

Okay and now here’s where I sort of stand with obey me, the gatcha rates are kinda ridiculously lucky when you play for the first week you luck is so amazing and is in my experience with gatchas the best luck I have ever seen for games so it’s not really hard collecting the cards

Now are they the best absolutely no, this I feel like is where you might have to spend money unless they up the skills on the Nightmare A

But what Obey me is technically trying to do is obviously making you pay by releasing your favorite demon card every 2 week which…aren’t essential they are really just hoping that you love your main demon enough to pay

With the high increase on the gatcha rate there really isn’t a pity unless you count the card pieces (but I’m not going to count that because you are more likely to roll your UR before completing the pieces)

Now after lesson 20 once the huge break I feel like Obey me almost expecting the players to keep logging in any doing jobs and some players did do that and boy did it pay off

But those players have not needed to spend a single dollar and are all caught up

Now for everyone else who didn’t the game was so difficult it’s unimaginable and because for that a whole lot of players left the game and personally I don’t blame them because of how much impact the next lessons were

Now sort of like Mystic Messenger you really just have to grind you ass off log in everyday and do JOBS :D and grind but as hard and long as it is you are still able to be a f2p but where obey me fails is that when grinding Mystic Messenger grinding was a lot more fun for me it took about a whole year to just get 550 hourglasses even when I purchased and same with Genshin Inpact it takes a while but with obey me there isn’t really anything else to do once you get to a certain point which I think obey me really lacks and could be part of a reason why people left. Grinding just is not fun (now I do think that on a phone there is so much you can do with a app game but I feel like there could be a bit more they could do)

Personally I’m just going to come out and say it don’t spend your money for one UR card for your favorite demon it’s really not worth it now im one of those Mammon stans but if I ever wanted a specific card for instance the Mammon bunny card when it first came out I wanted it so badly and didn’t get it but I also knew there would eventually be a revival so I saved and did not spend any DV(demon vouchers) until the revival

The events

Some people complain about getting the cards in the events onestly for me this one kinda makes a bit of sense I noticed the first change when the Vampire even came out and how it wasn’t as easy to get the second card but if you think of it it makes sence why

When the first event came out (Santa event) you only had to collect about 30,000 gingerbread compared to the 100,000 in event today but when the first event came out no one was at high enough levels for the AP required and you would every day when times rest to gain gingerbread as well as there was only one part to the story so when people kept leveling up their AP Obey Me had to higher the bar so it wouldn’t be so easy to get all these cards and have a actual reward system but eventually they also added another story lesson starting at the Ruri Chan event

Second thing about the events is that one there started just getting plain out boring.

When lesson 20 finished and we were all waiting for season 2 I was still loving in everyday and logging in at 12 and 8 for the free 30 AP because I didn’t know what else to and would participate in the event but eventually what I think that all otome games that have constant events like Ikemen Vampire and Ikemen Revolution they just start getting repetitive and getting real boring so I stoped playing until there was something more interesting

The last thing that some people complain about the events is that you can’t keep up with the story and the events now I can’t find it but I believe that @0beyme said something about the events a long time ago about how you have to pick between the event and moving through the main story which I kinda think isn’t really the games fault and more just a discussion on maybe missing a event

Add ons

Okay so they did this from day 1 you spend a certain amount of Devil point that you guaranteed don’t have and get out a card

Now this is just spelling out a disaster

Yeah so for the first Charge Mission is when you log in which everyone had but essentially what they want you to do is spend $100 on a game that you just logged into and never experienced or played I don’t really understand what they were even thinking with that but it must’ve worked for them to keep doing them

The second time they did it was when the break was over and season 2 came out and they celebrated by doing another charge mission which was the Lucifer and Simon card which would cost again $100 again I really don’t understand what they were thinking

And now this is I believe the fourth time they have done this for the 1.5 anniversary where they know that Mammon is obviously a favorite for many Obey Me players and where smart to put it on the really stupid charge mission but the difference is, is that instead of it costing $100 it would cost almost $200(same with Levi’s) for one thing I don’t understand

But one thing that you do have to remember is is that this isn’t apart of the main gameplay it really just is a mini game if you would even call it that of dress up and optimization so still I guess would be just a add on that has no effect on the actual story and game so you could I guess still call it a f2p game with really really stupidly high priced add ons

VIP

Umm so I am the first one to call myself out I have bought the VIP package first when season 2 happened and I knew how much I loved the game so personally it was worth it to me to support the developers and gain something out of it

Now I haven’t really seen much complaints on the VIP because people more use it as a “hey the game is impossible with out VIP” but the people who say this ive noticed never bought it

For $9.99 each month it is 100%

IT IS NOT WORTH IT!!! Out of everything you get which honestly isn’t much you get some extra free space in jobs and really that’s it and if you choose to use all your job slots for the highest paying you get around 30,500 about a 10,000 difference not really worth it in my opinion

With VIP you also get other things like higher chance of gifts from Jobs which you will not notice one bit, and +20 AP (which if you play the events is sort of useful) as well as extra packages exclusive to VIPs so after paying $9.99 per month you also get more things to buy and that’s about it for VIP now if you really want to get more grim just use your AP and spend it of normal lessons you will get more AP that way

The Story and Kids

This could be all me just complaining and a theory by I wanted to include it anyway

Obviously many people are not even caught up or even playing but as more lessons went on the less interesting the story became to me I don’t know if it’s a me thing but season one was absolutely amazing the once season two came out it was good but not anywhere as good and one

One reason why I think that it to me became almost bland is the amount of kids that is on the app and how sensitive people were if anything bad happens

It’s no secret that the Japanese versions a lot more non-kid friendly for hell’s sake the characters don’t even swear as well as all the colors I feel like to a American audience bright colors is usually marketed towards kids but in other countriesI think many understand that that is not always the case for instance a lot of people will thing in America that anime is all for kids but I mean look at Attack on Titan or Tokyo Ghoul you would not let kids watch that of literal people getting brutally murdered you just don’t see things like that in the West where something looking kid friendly could also be very adult like

Also wtf dose this in the App Store say +12 with Ikemen Vampire and a lot of other games if you have a game rated +17 then there will be a actual pop up that says something along the lines of how “thier could be violence acts and sexual act are you sure you want to instal”

Now the story I’ve seen people point this out but there isn’t really much character development for instance Beel he dose not have a actual personality his personality (fight me on this one) all you really know about him is that he likes food and his family now I could be wrong cuz I’m on lesson 42 but still not much and this is kinda with all the characters except the special ones where the devs really favor and love for story

Some one mentioned how the developers hold back a lot which I agree with 100% they said how when there is character development they all the sudden pull back and never will almost talk about it again like ???? So there’s this constant bland story

——————-

Honestly if you liked this I might do more cuz as much as this post made me especially at the end I kinda liked ranting so...yeah there is also many other things that I want to rant about but I’m tired soooo

feel free to comment your opinions btw

Bye ima go sleep now

[renegadewangs]

Hi!! I just finished The Legendary Pair and I can't even begin to word how amazing I thought it was. I will definitely come back with a (hopefully) well-written review sometime soon. But just know that I ADORED it so much. I haven't stopped thinking about it!! <3

I do have questions about your writing process though, if that's okay? I find it difficult to figure out a plot for my stories (I usually tend to get what kind of vibe I want the story to have first thing before anything else, so it's difficult for me to hash out an actual plot lol), so I was wondering how you'd go about figuring that out, if that's also a problem you have? And do you tend to outline or do you just wing it? If you do outline, how do you organize your thoughts?

Hope you have an amazing day!! :)

Hello anon! Oh gosh, thank you so much! I'm honestly honored people are still finding and enjoying The Legendary Pair to this day. It's something that I technically finished years ago, and then picked back up for two bonus chapters last year just to honor the localization. I'm really glad you liked it!

About my writing process, it's kind of all over the place. I tend to let my mind wander (usually in the shower, while I'm taking a long drive or when I'm trying to fall asleep) and what will happen is that I'll start to envision scenes. Those scenes then get pieced together with other scenes, until eventually I have the bare bones for a fic. From that point on, it's just a matter of keeping my attention on this particular narrative so I can start fleshing it all out chronologically and fill in the gaps. I do outline any scene/plot ideas I have in a Word document, along with a rough timeline of what will need to happen when to make the whole story flow. Some scenes come easier to me than others, because some will be the ones that came to me while my mind was wandering, while others exist purely as 'bridges' to connect these scenes. I know from a logical standpoint I'll need these bridges, so I try and convince myself to envision those instead. Sometimes as I'm writing, because I'll still have a vague idea of what needs to happen and I just need to write dialogue/actions around that. Full disclosure, hyper fixation has helped me a lot with this. I've noticed that once I fall off a certain fic wagon because my focus has moved on to other stories or fandoms, it's very hard for me to get back into that fic and finish it. Either I crank it all out while I'm in the fixation zone, or it'll likely become an unfinished project. Alas. Anyway, I hope that helps you!

[fieryblazes]

It’s better, really, to go out in a blaze, we love the ones who walk right into the fire.

NAME: Rhys Warren / Blaze.

AGE: One hundred and twenty seven.

KINGDOM: Fire sprite.

GENDER IDENTITY: Cismale (he&him).

SEXUAL ORIENTATION: Biromantic & bisexual.

Rhys Warren was born to a young couple that weren’t prepared for children.  The pair had never set down roots anywhere nor did they really ever intend to.  One from a traditional Irish family and the other craved a life away from where their family had been forced to live, together they chose a life on the run.  His mother was groomed to remain a part of her own society, where she might take over her mother’s role as an agricultural leader.  The role itself was a good one as far as things went but, it wasn’t exciting.  She was never one for political intricacies and instead, held out hope for a chance to explore the world with another.  Enter Rhys’ father, someone of Irish importance that held no claim to his own name.  Rather than marry into another wealthy family to find a housewife and raise the allotted children that his family hoped for, he met another that he would escape his designated life with and live carefree with until their first son was born.  Rhys had been unexpected but, strangely, still a wanted surprise for them.

When the family was complete with three children, the couple decided to return home for a little while.  Namely, back to where Rhys’ father’s side had settled.  Their life there would be short-lived, however, only a few years were spent there before the fatigue of everyday life hit the couple.  They were advised by both sides of the family to leave the children behind and at first, they obliged.  Rhys lived with his mother’s side of the family where he learned how to hunt, to gather and shadowed other leaders within their society.  He thrived moreover in hunting and in working within the fields.  The manual labor kept his fiery personality in check which was key because otherwise, the child would often pick fights with other children around them.

Like many in the early 1900’s, Rhys never attended school.  Instead, he labored in fields and worked alongside elders, learning basic education with them.  He learned to read and write at an older age than most would but, technically, it wasn’t something that was truly necessary for him until he was older.  Until his parents decided that they were moving to Florida and hoped to take their children with them, that was.  By then, Rhys was seventeen and his siblings were a few years younger.  They obliged despite how their caretakers felt and soon, the five of them were living in a commune just outside of Miami.  The commune itself was an offset of another that had been created several years back.  It was, effectively, a socialist commune where revolutionary socialists and anarchists of all sorts came to live amongst one another.  It was there that Rhys found his love for boxing and would continue to practice elsewhere later.  Rhys remained at the commune for several years before he made the decision to move on to Miami.

However, Rhys wasn’t the only one interested in the Magic City.  Upon the time that he moved there, the city’s officials had set out to create canals that would create more land and divert water away from the city.  It was soon made clear that they required additional help doing this to finish in a timely manner.  Rhys answered this call for more help and worked his way to a place to live while he looked for more work.  However, this downtime sparked a change in Rhys.  Hard work kept Rhys’ overactive mind at bay but, now that he had precious little to do in the way of manual labor, he started to feel the pull once again to achieve far more dangerous machinations.  Burglary was first but, it certainly wasn’t enough.  No matter how much he stole or how difficult the entrance and exit were, he found that the challenge didn’t do enough for him.  Then came gambling.  He learned the cheap tricks and dirty secrets behind how to win every time and once he had those mastered, boredom wrapped around his mind once again.  But, it would be arson that kept his attention for much longer.

It was also what kept him in jail most often.  He tried to keep his distance but it was difficult to do that but also watch the flames in all of their glory.  So, occasionally, he was caught due to his attempt to watch the art that he had created.  But, sometimes he chose places where people had angered him which made it entirely too obvious that it was Rhys Warren who had set the fire even if he was hidden elsewhere as the blaze burned the establishment down to ashes.  In and out of jail, he had made friends within and outside which slowly created a network of how people knew Rhys.  It wasn’t until his twenty eighth birthday, of which the evening was spent in a jail cell, that this network finally paid off.  He didn’t know the person who had paid his bail but, they had known of him.  A recruiter sent from the mob, Rhys was formally invited to prove himself to something bigger than him.  Something that might actually hold his attention.

Rhys climbed the ranks of the mob until he sat pretty as a rum runner.  He had spent several years building trust with the Miami sect of the American Mafia, where they mainly dealt in gambling and procuring alcohol during a time of Prohibition. However, he was on the fence about moving up even higher within the mob.  It meant more responsibility and as someone born and raised in a world with no rigid schedule, Rhys was free-spirited.  He didn’t adhere to the ideals of time management and strict routines.  He knew, in his heart of hearts, that this would become a problem at some point.  However, after the death of one of his siblings, the itch to leave and embark on a journey that would both keep him preoccupied and offer much needed excitement, Rhys pushed to be a part of the negotiations that dealt with the Dominican Republic.  And so, he stepped onto the Horizons with the belief he would be back soon.

A lot of work had gone into Rhys’ preparation from a presentational standpoint.  He had taught himself while on the voyage to conduct himself in a professional manner, to appear as a charismatic businessman rather than a hot-headed fighter with permanent calluses on the palms of his hands from a life of hard work.  As fruitless as this was, the shore that he awoke on with lungs filled with salt water was beyond his wildest hopes and dreams.  He accepted the deal when it was presented to him as an immediate believer of the sprites.  Here, he could finally lean into the more dangerous, volatile whims that had always lurked underneath his skin.  Rhys Warren was made of fire but, it was Blaze that would embody it.

CONNECTION IDEAS

THE FIRE SPREADS - Anyone who is aware of the laws of the land but still love the idea of bending them.  Whether there’s a reasoning behind it or they’re more akin to Blaze who is the epitome of ‘fuck around and find out’, perhaps they were a criminal in a past life and sometimes, they just need to seek out a thrill or two.  

PASSIONATE EMBERS - Those who Blaze has been with in some capacity.  It’s a running theme for him to be looking for ‘the one’ and though he isn’t a wholly sensitive person, he does have a romantic side.  This might have been a passionate romance with a quick burn out, nights of passion now unspoken or something else, we can figure it out.

A SPARK - This could be anything - a friendship, soon to be enemies, potentially a relationship, etc., but the point is that there’s something there and they haven’t figured out what it is.  But, there’s a push and a pull between them.  

ASHES NOW - They were close for some time and then had a horrible falling out.  Their relationship (be it whatever it was, platonic or otherwise) was one that seemed like it would be lasting but, now it’s bitter.  There’s unresolved feelings and even potentially disdain.

FIRE & ICE - I just really dig the idea of him teaming up with someone from the water kingdom, I don’t really have any solid ideas but, hit me up and we can come up with something wild.

HORIZONS PASSENGERS - Lastly, I’d dig some plots with the people that Blaze arrived with!  They probably didn’t know one another at the time but, that doesn’t mean we can’t get some spicy ideas going.

[iamcinema]

IAC Reviews #013: The Forest (1982)

I’ve been gone for far too long and in desperate need of a massive pick-me up with how everything around us is becoming more of a tire fire by the minute. So, let’s pack our bags and make our way for the woodlands to get away from the chaos for a while. I miss being out in the great outdoors during times like this. It’s so calm and peaceful, and with us approaching summer here in the northern hemisphere, it’s all the more pleasant. The fresh air, wide open space, the clear night skies - what could possibly go wrong? _______________________________________ I first heard about The Forest back in 2008 when I came across the Creepy Kentuckian’s review of it as part of his now dead series “Creepy’s Crappy Movie Reviews”, in which he spotlighted other horror titles like Lost Boys: The Tribe, Terror on Tour, Return to Sleepaway Camp, and Bates Motel to name a few. Since then, it sort of faded away from my memory and much like other films like Don’t Go in the Woods...Alone and Backwoods, which was for better or worse. Because I have an unusual fascination for these gritty, lesser known or spoken of titles, my eyes almost always light up when I come across something in the wild like this. I hope you packed your bug spray, because we’re going in deep for this one. Who knows what we’ll find?!

The Forest is a 1982 horror-thriller film that was directed, produced, edited, and written by Don Jones who doesn’t exactly have the most impressive filmography with anything too noteworthy to speak of. Most of his credits are attributed to the sound department, with titles like Blood of the Iron Maiden, The Psycho Lover, and Girl 27 (which is most recent credit as of 2007) coming up when you crosscheck his information. In regards to the cast, most of them didn’t go on to do a ton either after the 1980s for the most part, apart from Gary Kent who has the most prolific career of the crew with most of them being attributed to acting and stunt work - something he provided here as the acting stunt coordinator, which he went unaccredited for.

Our story centers on that of two couples and longtime friends who go on a camping trip to get away from the city and potentially help save one of their marriages from divorce. However, their fun doesn’t last too long when car troubles, bad weather, and a cannibalistic hermit looking for his next meal before winter puts a damper on things. While this isn’t anyone’s first rodeo with woodland cannibals, hermits, and weirdos, perhaps this one will bring something special to the table to help it stand out among all the rest.

The Forest In One Gif:

Well, color me impressed...I think. ________________________________________ It’s hard to really put a pin in movies like this since it feels like you can only do so much with the concept. You don’t exactly know what you’re going to get, so at best you might get something above average and at worst you’ll have a disaster of a time. Going into this, I honestly wasn’t sure what to expect given the mediocre review from the Creepy Kentuckian and the abysmal 3.8/10 rating on IMDb. I’ve had luck with poorly rated and received films before in the past, so maybe there was some hope that this would impress me. Maybe.

As far as the story goes, it's not all that bad and the motivation for our main characters feels like it means something so it doesn’t feel like a completely bland and generic slasher film - sort of. With the reviews I’ve come across on IMDb, some say that while this absolutely looks and feels like a stereotypical horror film with the same tired tropes, it bring something else to the table that helps it feel a bit more different. But, what this thing is I can’t exactly nail down either. I think it's partially due in part to the supernatural elements that come into play a bit later, which caught me off-guard because I wasn’t expecting it - certainly not for a film like this, as well as the subtle drama with our villain’s backstory and the marital subplot.

If I had to make one gripe about it that I can think of, it would be the logic and reasoning behind why our cannibal hermit, John, is doing what he does. I mean, we do learn more about his backstory and why he’s the way that he is, but why he chooses to hunt people for sport and his food supply doesn’t completely make sense to me if that’s how he’s scraping by alone. He’s situated on miles upon miles of woodland with plenty of freshwater sources, so why he isn’t utilizing those to his advantage doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Plus, you’d have to have a good amount of luck to just stumble across random hikers and campers like that, but again, that's just a small gripe that we don’t get much of an answer for.

With our characters as a whole, they aren’t all that bad and or as forgettable as others are from similar low-budget, obscure, and forgotten horror films. There’s something charming about our main characters, even if the acting isn’t very good and the dialogue being clumsy which starts to show itself more as things go by in a way where it boarders between feeling awkward and sometimes unintentionally comedic. The latter feels all the more accurate when it comes to one of the scenes towards the end of the film, and I don’t know if that was done on purpose or it was a weird stylistic choice with the editing [which, as a spoiler, flashing epilepsy warning for those who are photosensitive].

From a technical standpoint, it’s pretty good for what it’s worth and I have very little to nitpick about.

However, the only way to truly enjoy this is in 1080p+ because you’d otherwise be robbing yourself of the all around sound visuals, which is probably the strongest thing going for it. The film was shot in the Sequoia National Park, which makes for some truly beautiful shots with the scenery; both the day and night shots when the lighting was good. But, some of the day for night shots it feels a bit off because we’ll cut from that to an actual night take, and then back to day for night. It can throw you off a bit with what time it’s supposed to be, but that feels more like something that can be overlooked with some patience.

If I had to fault the technical department somewhere, it would be with the sound. For the most part, it’s quite good and clear. In spite of that, we have a few hiccups here and there where the dialogue feels muffled or low due to the background noise of the rivers they were shooting near or on part of the child actors who have a filter distortion over them. Once again, this can be glossed over, but without captions or a good ear you might overlook something unless you don’t care.

When it comes to the SFX work, I’m impressed by how gruesome it was for something this low budget. The opening sequence in particular is probably the most graphic moment of the film and it gets us off to a nice start with what we can expect for the duration of the film, even when it comes to the more tame murders or bloody injuries. The same can be said with the stunt work as well in a way too, I suppose. While the fight sequences aren’t anything special, it’s interesting that one of the actresses, Tomi Barrett, did her own stunts; which included a scene where she dove off a small cliff and was swept down the river over some rapids. Much like her co-star and husband Gary Kent, this also went unaccredited for.

On another semi technical note, the score and soundtrack isn’t all that bad either and is kind of catchy, at least to me. It was composed largely by Richard Hieronymus and Alan Oldfield; with Hieronymus providing work for films like Lethal Pursuit, The Astral Factor, and The Love Butcher and Oldfield working on films like 10 to Midnight, The Fear, and The Fear: Resurrection. The songs are also a nice touch as well, even if they’re brief; particularly “The Dark Side of the Forest” (ft. David Somerville) and the closing song “The Edge of Forever” (ft. Carol Browning). If you have a guilty pleasure for 80′s horror soundtracks, especially the somewhat cheesy like ones like Blood Lake, Psycho Pike, and Truth or Dare?: A Critical Madness, then I think you’re going to have fun with this one. I hate to admit it, but I’ve been jamming to both ever since I wrapped up seeing this a few hours ago.

________________________________________

So, where am I at now with this? I don’t completely know, if I’m being honest.

To hearken back to something I said about Rot last year, I think that the low score it has is a rather harsh and a bit unfair. While I agree that it’s better than Don’t Go Into The Woods Alone by a long shot, it doesn’t sit right with me. On that note, I feel that seeing reviews that place it at 8/10 or above is being a bit too generous as well, even if it’s in a “so bad, it’s good sense” which I don’t consider this to be since I don’t see it as a terrible horror film either. This is why it’s difficult for me to stick some pins in this damn thing to figure out where I’d place it.

It’s not a masterpiece by any means, absolutely not, but it’s not trying to be and it’s not a massive disappointment either like a certain film around the same time was. If you’re looking for a different slasher film of the time, especially if you have a weakness for woodland flicks goes, consider giving this one a watch some time and see where you fall with things. I’m stumped with how I feel about this one. I didn’t hate it, but I don’t see myself rushing to watch this again in the near future.

Rating: 5.3/10

[bluebonnet-daniel]

Favorite Songs #41-50

This bit of the list is more varied- classic rock fans, band nerds, emos and gamers will likely all see something they recognize on here. If you're not in any of those groups, well, that's tough.

#50: Angels in the Architecture- Frank Ticheli

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVW_GQFGQUs

Although I am classically trained, there are not that many works of classical music on here just because I wasn't that meticulous about that when making this list. There are a small handful which would've earned a spot on here had I thought of them, so maybe I'll make an honorable mentions at some point. Anyways, this is the first of of a few songs which I have fond memories of playing in band. When going to competitions, everyone knew which band was playing this tune, because the percussion players would be carrying boomwhackers and the trombone players would have plungers. Unused ones, don't worry. I have a distinct memory of getting bored when we took this to contest and trying to get my plunger mute stuck as high on the wall as possible.

#49: The Rain Song- Led Zeppelin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRt4hQs3nH0

If there's one thing my dad and I can always see eye to eye on, it's music. He sent this song to me out of the blue one day while I was at college, and it became one of my favorites immediately.

#48: Taxi Cab- Twenty One Pilots

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2wB0skdJ5o

This is not quite my favorite TOP song, as there are two more on this list, but it has my favorite lyrics of any of them. Apparently Tyler Joseph agrees with me, as he's said on record before that the rap section of this song is some of his best work.

#47: A Lullaby For You- Jyongri

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0z-JeUY2zo

"The World Ends With You" is one of my favorite video games ever, and this song plays in the credits of that game. It is a touching song, but it's a bit hard to talk about what makes it special enough to put on this list without just talking about the game it's from, and I don't want this post to get too long. Unrelated, but I recently picked up NEO: The World Ends With You and I'm very excited to get into it.

#46: Jungleland- Bruce Springsteen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6IwxpL-ZDk

A lot of songs on this list are made by a small group of bands which I obsess over, each one getting many entries stacked on top of each other. However, sometimes the opposite effect happens, and I find a song which seems to stand alone among the repertoire of the artist who made it. Springsteen makes fine rock music and all, but I haven't found another song which really hit me like this one. I found it after hearing it randomly on the radio, which I find somewhat unbelievable in hindsight given that it's too long to be a good radio song.

#45: The Shining Road- Masataka Matsutoya/Aya Hiroshige

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_gBiO2qNfo

Okay... This may seem like an odd choice, maybe even a cringey one. But yes, I legitimately believe that the credits music of the Japanese release of Sonic X season 2 deserves to be on this list. I'm sure a good part of that is nostalgia, since I was obsessed with Sonic in middle school. But, I had this song play in my head sometimes later in life, and revisiting it today it still holds up as a piece of music. The video I linked doesn't show the actual animation that went with it, but that should be easy to find on YouTube as well, and I think it adds a lot. Back in my Sonic obsession I was a big SonAmy shipper, you see.

#44: The First Circle- Pat Metheny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UOjwowDRQ4

This is one of the best songs on this list from a purely technical songwriting standpoint. Sometimes, people who don't listen to "high art" music a lot but still have a working knowledge of music theory make the accusation that some works of music will random use weird time signatures just to make the song more difficult/weird for the sake of weird. And I'm sure that happens, but this song is a good example of one which I honestly couldn't imagine any other way. The alternating 6/4 and 5/4 meter in this song feels totally natural, and certainly not contrived. Meter, like anything else in music, is a tool to be used. (That said, it is still infamously difficult to play. Remember when I mentioned I play Bob Curnow's arrangement of Every Summer Night? Well, he did one of this one too, and jazz bands usually only play it when they are feeling especially masochistic.)

#43: Now- Paramore

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4A5d9Y46Qik

This song just oozes with excitement and hope for the future. It is such a joy. There is also a particular scene in my story I always imagine in relation to it.

#42: Hometown- Twenty One Pilots

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJtlLzsDICo

I am going to have a fit of vanity and mention my story for the second time in one post. Sorry, but with this set of songs it's absolutely impossible not to. Especially this song, since well, my story was originally named after this song, until I switched it to "Deep In The Heart" at the last minute before posting. "Hometown" is a little too generic to be the title of a novel. Although to be fair, "Deep In the Heart" isn't that much better, as there is at least one Texan romance-themed novel with that title already, and honestly there are probably a few. But, I doubt any of the others are about lesbians in marching band fighting demons in the underworld in their time off school, so I'm not that worried about mix-ups.

#41: Wild Horses- The Rolling Stones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPfG2aU1MpI

This song gives me another excuse to mention Bojack Horseman, since it was used in that show once. It's another sad song. Why are there so many of those on here?

[illusivegore]

Gore Reviews Dust: An Elysian Tail

Release Date: August 15, 2012 Platforms: XBLA (reviewed), Microsoft Windows, Linux, OS X, PlayStation 4 (reviewed), iOS, Nintendo Switch

Dust: An Elysian Tail has been in development for some time now. It was originally designed to be released on the indie games section of Xbox Live, but ended up winning Microsoft’s Dream. Build. Play Challenge back in 2009. This victory won the game a contract to be released as an official Xbox Live Arcade game. Another notable fact worth mentioning is that Dust was almost completely designed by one man, Dean Dodril. On those merits alone Dust is an incredible feat, but can it truly stand with the biggest XBLA games or was it better left as an indie release?

As the game begins, Dust (our hero) awakens in the middle of a wooded area with no recollection of who he is or what has happened to him. Shortly after coming to, he is greeted by a talking sword name Ahrah, who has come to lead Dust on a journey of self-discovery. Ahrah is accompanied by a flying orange nimbat named Fidget, who soon becomes Dust‘s trusty sidekick. If you couldn’t tell already, the story of Dust is a little cliché. We’ve seen the amnesiac story so many times before, but this one ends up being pretty decent, all things considered. One aspect of the story that I was pleasantly surprised by was just how dark it got at times. There is much discussion and focus on death and it gives the game a real sense of soul.

While the story at its core is decent, the voice acting almost pushed it over the line to bad at times. It really did seem like a majority of the actors had the talent to make this story shine, but most ended up playing their parts so dramatically that I couldn’t take it seriously. The worst offender of the over-dramatic (and just plain annoying) is your little buddy Fidget. She tries far too hard to be funny and most of the time that falls flat. There were a few times where she’d crack off a line that made me smile or chuckle, but more often than not I was wishing she’d just pipe down. Even with the complaints I have about the voice acting, it is still quite impressive to see an XBLA game fully voiced and adds quite a bit to the experience, for better or worse.

The main focus of Dust is combat. In the beginning, the hack and slash combat was enjoyable and satisfying, but by about midpoint in the game I found myself rather bored with it. This is due in large part to the combo system, or lack there of. You’ll learn every combo that is possible in the tutorial area of the game. You have something like five total attack options and there’s no way to unlock or learn new moves at any point in the game.

You can also utilize Fidget in combat. She can shoot out projectiles and when used in combination with an attack you have called “Dust Storm”, you’ll be able to attack multiple enemies with some pretty flashy moves. These can be fun for a while and really rack up the hit counter, but even with three different projectile types to find in the game, it still gets played out pretty quickly. With that said, from a technical standpoint the combat is just fine, but the limited options hold it back from being great.

One aspect of Dust that I really wasn’t fond of was the platforming. While it wasn’t inherently bad, it did get frustrating at times. There are times when you’ll jump and just completely whiff when you thought you had it timed perfect. This is fine in most cases as there is no fall damage and you can just try again, but there are also times when you are either being chased or there are environmental hazards and your jumps need to be perfect. The last third of the game is filled with instances like this and ended up being a bit of a pain to get through at times.

At its core Dust is an action-RPG. However, it’s really only an RPG in the sense that you collect XP and level-up because after that there is absolutely no depth. Upon leveling up you’ll have very limited options, which was pretty disappointing. You’ll get a “skill gem” with each new level that you can use to increase your health, attack, defense or projectiles (Fidget‘s attack). That’s it. This is where a nice section of combo unlocks would have been great, but sadly that wasn’t to be. Another interesting choice is that no one skill can be more than four points higher than the rest. So if you want to go all-in on health and attack power, you won’t have that option. I’m guessing this is done to keep the game balanced for leaderboard reasons, but I wasn’t a fan of them limiting my already limited options.

Even with the balance from limiting where you can use your skill gems, I still felt extremely overpowered about halfway through the game. This was mostly because of the crafting system. Throughout the game you’ll be able to find blueprints that will allow you to create items such augments for your sword, armor and other trinkets, each of which increases one of your attributes. You can craft these by collecting materials from fallen enemies. Crafting is a little too easy in Dust though. Once you find a certain material and sell it to a shop, all shops will stock that item. So as long as you have the cash (which you more than likely will) you can buy whatever items you need for any blueprint you have. This makes crafting more accessible, but sort of makes picking up these materials from enemies almost pointless later in the game.

On the topic of enemies, there is actually a pretty good variety of them to be found. Each has their own attacks and patterns and this makes combat a little more fun. Well, until you get so overpowered that you are taking most enemies down in a couple of shots. Boss fights on the other hand are kind of a joke from the start. Spam Fidget’s attack and Dust Storm throughout the fight, while throwing in a few standard attacks to let those recharge, and you’ll make short work of nearly every boss. This was another disappointment for me because utilizing bosses with difficult, yet distinct patterns would have been perfect in Dust. I will say that they do try to change things up with the final boss, but rather than giving you an epic fight, they resort to cheap tactics to create pseudo-difficulty, which is more frustrating than anything.

I feel like everything I have to say about Dust is negative, so let’s move on to some positive aspects of the game. The biggest standout for Dust is the beautiful art used in it. With everything being hand drawn I was honestly surprised with the amount of unique backdrops and set pieces displayed throughout the game. The combat animations are also fantastic, if you can take the time to watch them amidst the chaotic fighting.

Dust is also at its best when you’re exploring. You’ll get to explore a majority of the areas in the game simply by completing the main quest and the sidequests. However, thanks to new abilities you unlock throughout the game (ala Castlevania or Metroid) you’ll have to do some backtracking and further exploration if you want to find every piece of treasure Dust has to offer. From time to time there are also puzzles to solve in order to acquire some treasure, but sadly these are so easy that they barely qualify as puzzles. Going back through old areas with new powers and seeing how they could be utilized was definitely some of the most fun I had with Dust though.

While it may seem like I was pretty critical of this game (which I kind of was), there is still fun to be had with it. Almost everything about Dust is great in small doses, but when experienced over the course of 10 to 15 hours they can grow pretty tiresome. The lack of depth in both combat and RPG elements really hold this game back from being something special. I want to stress that it is in no way a bad game, but as is, Dust: An Elysian Tail ends up just being another unmemorable XBLA experience.

Score: 3.5 out of 5

[doctordim]

REGEN

Chapter I Chapter II Chapter III  Chapter IV

His history with Artyom had blossomed from the black rosebud of the mundane.

He’d shook hands with the esteemed doctor some time ago amidst the field of perpetual combat, replacing a traumatized colleague cowed by the pressure of working at a medical research station straddling the great wall of Grimvault, or more likely from the irradiating and wilting exposure to Doctor Payne himself. They had worked very well together… from a purely technical standpoint in the field of cutting instruments and blood.

He’d always liked to think that he could have the right tool in his gnarled hands or a wound cleaned and sutured before the skilled surgeon even asked. This did not grant him an exemption from the doctor’s vile barbs, but by good fortune and fortitude he had shown himself more or less immune to its effects. All he did was smile and shrug in response and help the enclave in any way he could.

Then, one night, the outbreak took place. Vital and vast reservoirs of the team’s vitalus serum were soon sullied by invasive traces of the strain. Unfit for imbibing (and generally agreed upon that infection was a fate worse than ravening) the mordesh population within the research station began to drop like flies – short-lived mayflies, one by one. Dmitriy and Doctor Payne had toiled tirelessly in the main triage theater to a time worryingly later than their usual vitalus changing, setting the two surgeons an hour or two out of sync with the rest of their doomed cabal. It saved their lives, in a way.

While familiar faces stalked the halls shrieking and sniffing out signs of unturned flesh the mordesh men managed to dispatch some minions of the contagion’s embrace, find each other in the midst of the battlefield still sane, and hid. A barricaded broom closet made do for the moment as they waited, ticking down the minutes until their vitalus too ran out and they would willingly join the fold.

He could not remember who had grabbed the other first out of raw, cold fear for their mortality, clutching at a warm body in lieu of scooping up the last few grains of sand in their hourglass. He’d marveled at the surprising tactile warm from such a waspish frame; such a quick beating heart strangled by adrenaline, excitement and dread.

Likewise, he couldn’t recall who had crushed lip to unfeeling metal jaw-frame or if he’d moved first, forgetting artificial prosthesis wreathed in black memories for the first time since such clouds had formed. Hands had moved of their own accord, groping hard in darkness. If he was going to die, torn apart by ravenous ally or starved for serum until he snapped and ripped apart his comrade’s face, the only primal scream they could emit into the face of doom without attracting death was to each other – a petulant, violent statement that they were alive until the end.

Indeed, in the end the Black Hoods rescue attempt found them before the ravenous or strain-infected could. They’d arrived just in time, too; some months after the fact the head of the rescue squad admitting to Dim that another fifteen minutes without forcibly separating, tying them down and slamming an emergency vitalus booster into their reservoirs and they never would have brought both Dmitriy and Doctor Payne back from the verge of growling, carnal beasts. He’d laughed at the worlds of his friend, proudly remarking that even now in all honesty nothing much had changed.

All jokes aside though, it had been awkward. Very awkward. You don’t just end-of-the-world fuck with a respected colleague in a moment of crisis and then pretend like everything is completely normal the next day. He’d tried to ignore it, tried to push aside the bloodlust-tinted ravenous recollections in that coffin-like rectangular space, for the sake of professionalism, for the sake of decency, but from the very beginning there were cracks in his façade – and Artyom’s too.

He daydreamed against his will. He became absentminded, often forgetting a carefully worded instruction or a request for assistance in the middle of an operation, back home safely now in the middle of Thayd. He’d caught himself glancing more and more at the red-haired, demon surgeon behind cloth face masks; always when he wasn’t looking. In turn, Doctor Payne didn’t yell or roar or attempt to sting him with carefully worded barbs of poison either, merely repeating his instruction more firmly and curtly until Dmitriy snapped back to reality again.

They hadn’t really spoken at length about what had happened to them, even now. All Doctor Konstantinov knew was that some weeks later, when the whole fiasco was just beginning to fade from his mind and swapping scrubs for his more comfortable civvies, Doctor Payne had come upon him without remorse, cornering him in the changing room.

It hadn’t been to roast him alive, or to make up for the past few weeks of vitriol. The towering, feared surgeon of atomic anger that had scared his predecessor off in a matter of days instead hesitantly, almost shyly had asked him for a date. A date. In both bewilderment and relief he had accepted right away.

The rest, as they were so wont to say, was history.

For the first time in many, many decades Dmitriy had been happy. They did fight at times, held wildly different opinions on a great many things and often were as night and day, but something seemed to just click between them. Eventually he had realized that the desperate flutter in his chest every time Artyom came skulking in with that scowl on his face was the resurgence of love.

Love. Who could have guessed, in such a rotten world?

So, was it wrong to want to remove an unfeeling metal jaw-frame to kiss him for real, for the first time? Was it hubris to watch the object of his affections suffer in painful prosthesis and yearn to change all that? Regen could have been his ticket to greatness, true, but that was merely a by-product of his true intentions.

But he had messed it up.

He had messed it up so bad, so bad.

This was not something the fancy of fortune would be able to fix.

xxx

He’d cried out before in pain and surprise, but this time Doctor Konstantinov let out a shriek of abject terror.  He felt that, felt his hand touching the lump… and felt the lump in turn touching his hand.

So paralyzed by the discovery was he that his ruined and regenerating body gave a violent, uncontrollable buck to distance himself from the growing horrors attached to his flesh that his socked feet slipped forward on the metal flooring of his lab and his knees crumpled once more, dropping him fast enough to crack the back of his head against the edge of the table and douse his vision in a shower of sparkling stars.

Fortunately, the cables framing his face and skull were made of a sturdier stuff than he’d hoped and the only thing he received was a visible dent that hadn’t even broken through the durable polymers. Almost panting, (and later on he’d realize, quite ineffectively for air), Dim probed a hand around to feel for the damage. He tried to rise again, grasping at the furniture for purchase, but his fingers were too mangled and his legs too numb to rise. Only pins and needles danced up and down the panicked nerves where he’d fallen. Even with vigorous, clawed rubbing he could barely feel anything at all.

Dmitriy’s laughter was high-pitched and wheezing, almost whistling through clenched teeth as tears of hurt and fear streamed freely down his cheeks. He didn’t know what was happening – he hadn’t a clue! Nothing, not a single outlier in any of his wildest scientific dreams could have accounted for this! What in the name of Kemos was happening to him?

The mordesh measured the growths around his waist one more time, battling to bring his composure back under control. He stretched out his fingers and thumb and found that the nubs were already longer by a good third and could hardly be called a nubbin anymore, stretching out and out with every twisting, wrenching pulse of his bruised body. Little clusters of virgin suckers were forming across the underside, exuding a thin protective lubricant to insulate himself from the harsh, open air.

He chuckled through his pained tears. Surely he must have raised the shutters and opened the window directly into true insanity. All he need do now is stick his head inside.

“Ahhh… Bambi. My Bambi. I’ve really done it this time…”

He fumbled for his damaged datachron one last time. It was the only object that could root him to normalcy in the midst of madness, as difficult as it was to manipulate with uncooperative digits. As alien limbs sought to slither across his already atrophying legs he hit the redial for the second time that day, pleading, almost praying in weak whispers to “please pick up. Come on now, please… please pick up.”

It rang for a few moments, hesitated in turn, and then switched immediately back over to the familiar and clipped intonation of Doctor Payne’s voicemail. As Artyom had earlier, a city away, Dmitriy felt the impulse to throw his datachron against the wall in frustration, but what would that have accomplished, really? He truly would have been cut off from the rest of the world.

The pressure in his core tightened as fresh pain erupted from the base of his skull. He dialled again, listlessly, his only movements the heaving of his chest and the slight twitch of a thumb against the screen.

Whirr. Humm.

“Speak now. Swi-”

Click.

Dmitriy slumped back further against the table. Admittedly, it did not feel quite as bad as his jaw trying to rip through his face and displace his prosthesis while still attached to his body, but he was… quickening. Becoming. Parts of him were quietly dislocating and dissolving. Muscles bulged larger than they had ever been in life. He flicked his thumb again.

Whirr. Humm.

“Speak-”

Click.

New nerves arched to life, petitioning a permanent connection to his brain. All of a sudden he could feel; really feel, more than he had ever felt before. He felt wrong, dry; unpleasant – remembering the dark, dripping depths of his dreams.

Whirr. Humm.

“Spe-”

Crackle.

The good doctor let out a growl that sounded right at him in the deep wilderrun jungle. It took all the willpower from the kind, gentle half of him slowly drowning in endless waters to not completely crush the contraption in powerful, too-large hands; merely cracking the casing instead. Artyom was not going to suddenly spring to action and rescue him. It already seemed too late to rely on the aid of an esteemed, great surgeon and scientist to fix his mistakes and make him all better again.

But perhaps there was someone else.

Drifting away from familiar territory, the degenerating doctor dialled another number not nearly used as often as his lover’s. There was an aqueous quality to his breathing now, so soon freed from the artificial tinge of false vocal chords, slipping past teeth hooked and horrible as they clumsily spun out the words. It took scarcely more than three rings for the receiver to pick up this time, thank the gods.

“Mmmaaaaaalllll…” Dmitriy groaned before the other could even speak.

He heard a marked hesitation on the line, sounds of slight static, and the unmistakeable crunch of boots on dry leaves coming to a snappy stop. A soft, deep voice intoned; “… Doctor?”

The abomination coiled against (and somewhat around) the lab table exhaled a wet sigh of relief. “Furrr… mmmmallll-deeeeh…. Hhhhk… Mmmal. I nnnneeed yuuuuhhh…” He tried to say, but it was difficult. He had quickly remastered speaking with flesh and bone again after so long, but it felt like the air to breathe wasn’t exactly taking the right channels to come out as words. Something felt like it was sticking like a dam in his lungs and his sides hurt at every ragged attempt.

As for the agent on the other end, his voice was harder this time. Firmer. Hundreds of miles away a shadowed, lithe form waved towards some seemingly empty trees to give the signal to hold the snipers for now, and then he touched his ear delicately to focus on the call. “Dim. This is dire. Are you about to become ravenous? Is this why you are calling me?” He asked.

He’d asked himself that not long ago. Now, it was much harder to waive such a concept away. Dmitriy shook his head slowly before realising his friend had his datachron configured to audio only. “Mmmalll, I mmay have mmmade… mmyself a mmonsterrr… Ssssend help…” He pleaded, trying to gain enough leverage to rise from his tangle on the floor.

Agent Formaldehyde absorbed this data, such as it was. He was already mentally preparing the paperwork to justify the order to retreat, for on the borders of disputed territory most of his men were mordesh and many would have agreed; a potential patient zero catalysing an outbreak carried more weight than the war of attrition against the Dominion so far.

His short nod was barely discernable in the darkness as he opened up a secondary channel. “Acknowledged. Markus. Miles. Mikhail, abort. Fall back while I contact the nearest harrower.” There was only a rustling of the trees and mere moments later faint footsteps echoed into the night. The black hood turned back to his datachron call, sallow features creasing into a frown. “Dmitriy, are you still there?”

He received no words for an answer but he could hear the other man panting. Wet, gluey, raspy panting.

“This had better not be one of your jokes, Dim. The Widow does not have much of a sense of humour.” Formaldehyde warned, but he already highly doubted such a possibility. Something felt quite wrong according to the raised metaphorical hackles at the back of his neck.

By this point Dmitriy needed both hands free to heave himself back up to an average standing height against the lab bench. To manage this a clumsy, uncoordinated appendage at first gripped around the datachron for him before dumping it with a clash and a clatter upon the clean surface. He peered at it unsteadily like a mermaid propping himself up against jutting rocks. How had he even, he didn’t know just-

– AHHH! –

- but a roiling, ripping feeling was beginning to coalesce between his pelvic bone and navel, one that also seemed to be pulling outward too, but with fire; white hot rolling fire!

Formaldehyde visibly cringed and pulled his earpiece out with slender fingers as an almost surprised, sharp howling scream pierced through the ear bud receiver. It had barely sounded human, or in their case mordesh. Erstwhile, in the wake of something horrific and vital ripping open within him Dmitriy slid like a cage-less squirg low to the ground once again.

A massive pair of jaws unhinged. Black keratin, hard as iron. One great big hook lunged down and sliced through cloth, skin, rotting flesh and weak dissolving bone. The doctor all at once experienced an agony-tipped sensation that none other on nexus had felt – the simultaneous half-numb pain of being eaten alive and the strange, sickly-sweet taste of his own flesh and soft marrow.

“Dim! Are you there? Dim! Answer me!”

He could not respond now. His call to Formaldehyde, more often called Mal to friends, may as well have been in the Halon Ring for all the good it did him now. But still, the call continued unabated and recorded every pained moan, every audible thrash and every crack, crunch and hungry gulp.

Agent Formaldehyde spat out a word in his native mordescu that he wasn’t allowed to say at home. If looks could kill the stalker’s glowing grey-eyed glower could have… made a colleague pretty uncomfortable at the time. “Very well, stay right there. Operatives will be sent to your location.” It was a bold statement considering he had no real control over that, but he was confident. His expression softened somewhat. “Dmitriy. Do not die.”

All this fell upon distracted ears. The doctor was far too preoccupied with the hurt in his guts and the savage, almost feathered-membranous slits slicing open beneath his ribs to hear the reassurances of a friend. Abandoning the damaged device, Dim crawled across the floor painfully like a snake on his belly, clawed fingers seeking purchase on the uneven metal panelling to pull his large and too-long body along, foot by foot.

Artyom. He wanted Artyom to find him instead. He wanted his tall, clever firebrand to stride in through the door right this very minute, fold his arms and glare at him in that unmistakeably doctor Payne way that always set his heart at ease. He’d say something incisive that Dim would not be able to deny or refute, and then he would forgive him and help him into his lab and… and… and fix things. Artyom would think of something – he always did – and come this time next week he’d be kissing him for real; for the very first time and it would all be so… so worth it.

Dmitriy wept new tears this time, not of pain but simple weary despair. That was merely a delirious dream and not about to happen, and it was all his fault.

His urgency increased as the cuts in his sides strained and gasped for… not air, he determined, but something else. It was becoming more and more difficult to breathe with his lungs and his skin was so dry it hurt. He could not remain like this any longer.

The taste of blood and bone faded from his senses as his massive muscled arms hoisted the humanoid part of his body up against the windowsill letting in the gloaming twilight into his lab. He’d kept it locked most of the time and he didn’t have the key on hand right then, but if his memory served him correct two storeys down and a little ways further into the jungle a strong river flowed through wilderrun and beyond. It had made for good fishing once upon a time, or refreshing to dip ones toes in, but now all Dim could think about was the water.

Water.

Water.

Every fibre of his distorted being needed it more than air and earth combined.

The creature shrugged off his stained lab coat and the tattered remains of his shirt, wrapping a fist in the fabric before slamming it as hard as he could into the pane. The glass shattered readily into ragged shards and he took the extra time to pick out the pieces still attached tenaciously to the frame.

Levering himself to barely fit inside the window, just like the little scamp he had once been to sneak out of history class alone, Dmitriy took one last look over his shoulder at the cradle of his hubris. The datachron was still running and the place was an utter mess. Well, he’d clean it up later, he thought.

He crawled outside the window and leaned. Alien limbs gripped, adhering to every crack and crumble. For a moment he felt the fresh touch of wind on his unmarked, healed face.

And then he fell.

[twelvebyseventyfive]

Champagne Dom Pérignon: the extreme years, with Richard Geoffroy

Richard Geoffroy introduces Dom Pérignon vintages 2003, 2006 and 2009, underlines why each is an extreme wine, tells us which is his favourite vintage ever, and explains why vision is more important than vineyards.

‘It has been such an exhilarating period,’ began Richard Geffroy, Chef de Cave of Dom Pérignon, referring to the string of releases that included 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. There will be no 2007 released, and he was in town to showcase the next vintage of Dom Pérignon, which will be 2009. ‘We are not declaring 2007 and we have decided to switch 2008 and 2009 around.

‘I’ve been critical in the past of those who have done this,’ he admits. ‘Sometimes I found it was more of a communication ploy than anything else. The truth is that 2008 is not ready. Not at all. It could be another 1996 in that sense. 2009 is approachable enough. Frankly, it would have benefitted from another couple of years, but all in all it is the best compromise we could come up with. 2007 is too slight – it has been considered, but in the end we found out that it didn’t have the substance or flesh. 2011 is another of the slight vintages where we can’t get a distinct DP character.’

Of course, with Champagne, when you are using a distinctive bottle like that of Dom Pérignon, you have to decide at blending stage whether you are going to go ahead and make the wine.

‘When I joined Dom Pérignon in 1990 the vintage declarations were pretty conventional. It was about declaring in the best vintages only. Now I find that the vignerons and winemakers are meant to witness the Champagne years for what they are. It is an element of storytelling.’

2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 were all declared. ‘These wines were awesome,’ says Geoffroy. ‘We had a responsibility to showcase them. All in all, looking at the first decade of the 2000s, the years were extravagant, sunny and generous (not in crop size), and the solar warmth translated into ripeness and richness. These wines are rich by all means, but the overall balance is definitely unconventional. 2003 is the least conventional Champagne profile of all. It is closer to a still wine than a Champagne. It is border territory for Dom Pérignon.’

2003

The surprise is that 2003 is Geoffroy’s favourite vintage of all. ‘2003 is the most extreme vintage I have been through in my 27 years of Dom Pérignon. It is not just scorching heat, but also heat on top of a small crop. In 2003 Chardonnay was 20 hl/ha. The heat caused photosynthesis to shut down in early August. At picking there was an element of dissociation between sugars, which had been stuck for a week, and phenolics and flavours which kept building up. Acids were dropping too, but this is the least of my concerns. I’m not after the sacrosanct acids: I take it as it is, low or high. The lowest acids were 2003 and 2009, and we had some success. Acids are part of the vintage character. It is not part of the Dom Pérignon style. I am not picking on pH.’

‘2003 was the mother of all solar years. It was the earliest harvest since 1822. To me, 2003 has been a seminal vintage for me. There is before and after 2003. I am known to make comparisons with collective sports. The sense of achievement in winemaking is so collective. It has been the most exilharating vintage to make because there were so many challenges. Luckily, we were able to take them one after the other, because they were staggered in time. If we had been facing them all together we would have failed. The most important thing was to be clear on our picking decisions, and to understand the photosynthesis shut down, and to pick one week earlier than anybody. Most people were monitoring ripening by the solar parameter of sugars. We had been measuring sugars alongside berry tasting and measuring phenolics. Combined together, we picked close to a week earlier than anyone else. When you start of with the right foot you only have to maintain the beat. There was a sense of collective achievement that helped the team grow up.’

‘Since then I have been on a mission to make a point with 2003. I’m pretty excited about this vintage. I’m often asked what my favourite vintage is in my 27 years at Dom Pérignon. My answer is not based on pedigree: it is based on the sense of satisfaction to really have taken the challenges and the doubts and all these emotions. 2003 is that for me.’

‘It is the vintage with the highest ever phenolics. People don’t realise it, but Champagne is higher in phenolics than you’d think, for good and bad. It depends on the vintage and the winemaker. If you cross phenolics and oxidative characters and it dries the wine out and makes it astringent. I am told this is a traditional character of Champagne, but I don’t like it. I want the glide! The continuous, simultaneous gliding holding the notes on and on, so that the finish isn’t depending on the physical astringency or the acids.’

‘These three wines are so low in acid. They are insanely low acids. Whenever I show them to my winemaker colleagues they are shocked. The low acids make up for the bitterness. There is good and bad bitter, combined with salinity and minerality, with a minimum of the reductive as well. The intriguing thing is that 2003 could have been really forward, extrovert fruit character – the tropical and exotic – yet it is all balanced out with intriguing dark reductive characters: not what you would expect from such a warm year. Welcome to Dom Pérignon!’

2006

2006 was an outlier year, and it made the least acidic Champagne ever. ‘The most challenging vintage of all from a technical viewpoint wasn’t 2003, but 2006. It was the most difficult blend to balance up. There was an issue with pH: it was the highest ever in the history of Champagne at 3.20. At the time of blending I had been making this wine with some symmetry: something very polished, almost too sleek, with a finish that wasn’t so defined. Rationally, it was rather foolish to go and declare it. We had been betting on the fact that in the long run of a lengthy yeast maturation the wine would emerge with a decent texture and precision, and a better finish. It materialized, but it kept me sleepless for a few nights. It took a long time to emerge, If I had released 2006 at the same age as 2003 at 8 years, I would have failed. We had the privilege of being able to release it at 10 years in the spring of 2016, and this helped a great deal.’

‘It has a striking bright, juicy dimension of fruit, like a bright light. There is less of a reductive mineral quality like in 2003. The centre of the wine is more fruit than anything.’

2009

2009 is the ripest vintage of all. ‘There are two things I could easily state about 2009. We have been going further with the ripeness of our fruit since we achieved our extra confidence in 2003. 2003 helped the project of 2009. We won’t be going any further with ripeness: it is pretty hard to go beyond 2009.’

‘The season started off so-so. There was mildew pressure. Then things cleared up and we had non-stop sun throughout August and September. The potential sugars were high. The fruit profile was super-ripe and Pinot Noirs were light coloured. It was a challenging year for red wines.’

‘There are various expressions of phenolics. In 2003, phenolics helped define the structure, whereas in 2006 and 2009 phenolics are more an element of texture.’

‘I am puzzled: some people are not declaring 2009. Why not? Is it a philosophical standpoint, or bookkeeping? My philosophy is that when you witness the year and you face an outstanding year, you take it. You never turn a good year down for the sake of accounting or to create artificial scarcity.’

‘In the late 1990s we worked hard with our in-house vineyard team to try to achieve extra ripeness and crop size and balance of vegetation and fruit load. We went through quite a few things but the truth is that most of it had been coming from mother nature. Many people complain now that Champagne has low acidity and blown out fruit characters. But one has to be consistent in the overall process. I am after more ripeness but my process is reductive. If you start crossing extra ripeness and oxidative winemaking, you are going to be in trouble. We have a coherent process from start to finish, and then the whole thing is completed with lengthy yeast maturation to bring layers of complexity, intensity and texture. From the viticulture side, our wines are all geared to that lengthy process of maturation.’

‘Some people were concerned with forward development in 2009s. Early on, I was concerned. Did we go too far? I am an anxious guy. It is very difficult for me to be at peace. Then I started looking at the wine on lees, and after 3 or 4 years ageing it was on the right track.’

He emphasised that the decision to switch 2009 and 2008 had to be made. ‘Trust me: 2008 is nowhere. It has been fantasized by so many people. I hope the wines will live up to this.’

‘Dom Pérignon is so much about a vision. Often, to be provocative, I say that the greatest asset of Dom Pérignon is not its vineyards but its vision. I put the vision above the vineyards. Once you are set on the vision you can venture out. It is like an itinerary for a journey. If you go out without the itinerary you get lost.’

Champagne Dom Pérignon 2009 France Fine, expressive nose with some floral hints to the clean citrus fruit. There’s a sense of ripeness and weight on the palate with sweet pear, cherry and some nectarine, as well as a delicate citrus core. Linear and fresh with a smooth, saline core, and a tiny bit of grip from the phenolics. It’s ripe but not heavy, with precision and delicacy. A really pretty expression of DP that should develop in interesting ways. 93/100

Champagne Dom Pérignon 2006 France Fine toastiness on the nose with delicate bready notes and sweet citrus and pear fruit. There’s some mintiness, too. It’s ample and generous in the mouth with lovely ripe citrus, tangerine and nectarine fruit with some bright, tangy lemony notes on the finish. The toasty notes balance the lemony freshness. There’s a bit of nice reduction keeping things tight, just when the toast and ripe fruit seems in danger of running away. Just delicious. 94/100

Champagne Dom Pérignon 2003 France Beautiful toasty, biscuitty nose with attractive ripe fruit. The palate is rich but balanced with nuts, spice, honey, tropical fruit and citrus. Generous and broad, and very rich with nice savoury, bready, toasty characters and real depth of flavour. Showing the first signs of savoury maturity, but so fresh and balanced considering the vintage. Accessible and quite serious at the same time. 94/100

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from jamie goode's wine blog http://www.wineanorak.com:/wineblog/champagne/champagne-dom-perignon-the-extreme-years-with-richard-geoffroy For Fine Wine Investment opportunities check out Twelve by Seventy Five: http://www.twelve-by-seventy-five.com/

[oracleadyton-blog]

Messed up sleep schedule so i’ve been trying to get into the groove in the past few days. I’ve ordered a nice (? it’s IKEA) rug for my bedroom and it should be here next week. Hopefully it’ll warm up my room a bit and will create a bit more space to place microphones and whatnot. This is the last week before i have the house for my own for the coming year and hopefully i’ll be able to work a lot more consistently. Also i hope this is the last chunk of my life i spend here but hey who knows. But today it’s a busy day. 

Hell in a Cell just finished. It was good! And KING OF PRO-WRESTLING will air in a couple of hours. And it’ll be awesome. But first!

Hell in a Cell 2017. Didn’t caught the pre-show. Yawn.

The Usos defeated The New Day (Big E and Xavier Woods) (c) in a Hell in a Cell match for the Smackdown Tag Team Championship.

The show started quite strong with twenty minutes of good action; unfortunately the match had the kind of violence that would greatly benefit from some blood in order to really click but it was fine anyway. Right from the beginning the cage played a huge role, as it should. Huge tope from Big E, then some 2 on 1 action. This was kind of the leitmotiv of the match, as the two teams kept outnumbering each other. Weapons also played a huge part giving it a sort of hardcore/Lethal Lockdown flavour. After a moment of Usos dominance Big E started a comeback but was stopped by a superkick. A couple of cool double team manoeuvres - Uranage+backstabber from the apron, a huge UpUpDownDown - and a kick out. The Usos brought out some kendo sticks and start torturing Woods in front of Kofi. Consecutives top rope splashes on Big E who kicks out. After that Langston with a huge come back and power moves with good psychology. You could read in his face he wanted to punish the Usos for going hard at Woods. From this point on the selling becomes kinda weird, as huge moves won’t really matter. More weapons, more back and forth until the Usos manage to do a double top rope splash with a chair on Big E for the win. 

Very entertaining match. Crowd was kinda cold but i understand the idea of putting HiaC on both ends of the show. The unconsistent selling towards the end really didn’t do it for me so yeah. 3.75 starz.

Randy Orton defeated Rusev

Right from the beginning Rusev is great at selling his anger towards Orton for crashing his Rusev Day celebration a couple of weeks ago. While this was a classic WWE style match and so a bit predictable i didn’t mind much, as the two guys are good and work well enough with each other. The problem is that the fued doesn’t have much in it so for the majority of the match the crowd wasn’t into it. For the first 3 quarters of it the pace was also - very - slow, as usual in most Orton matches, but there were a couple of good spots. Rusev did a nice spinning heel kick that got a nice pop - it’s a shame he doesn’t do athletic stuff more often - while The Viper hit a backdrop on the barricade outside. Rusev didn’t sold it much. In the last quarter of the match the action really picked up and the crowd was into it: the Bulgarian went for the Accolade but Orton escaped outside. They made their way back inside the ring and Randy hit the elevated DDT. Goes for the RKO taunt but Rusev catches him in the Accolade again. Orton counters, RKO, 123.

I don’t like the idea that all that matters to a match are entrances and finishes but the duo managed to leave a good impression on me by doing exactly that. Formulaic for sure but i have to give them props. Not sure where this leaves Rusev tho. 3.25 starz.

Baron Corbin defeated AJ Styles (c) and Tye Dillinger for the US Championship.

So the match was made a triple threat in the pre-show as Tye went to Daniel Bryan and asked for a chance, since he defeated Corbin last week. The GM agreed and they made the cheesy 10/YES! chant. Great tv moment. The problem is that when Tye came out nobody cared. Some booos, even. But hey, personally i find Corbin 1-on-1 matches boring as hell so this was an improvement. We have seen these guys going at each other for weeks now so the sparkle, in pure main roster fashion, in gone but having it a 3-way kept it fresh. In the beginning AJ and Tye teamed on Corbin and then went to do some nice chain wrestling between themselves. The match had a very long and slow mid section with Baron going at the two guys one-on-one alternately. This was clearly a showcase match for Corbin and i’m not sure it worked. AJ made a huge comeback and managed to warm the crowd a bit. He’s truly great: worked Tye as a heel and Baron as a face at the same time. Another cool AJ-Tye section with reversals. A 450 splash on Corbin and Dillinger breaks the pin. Then a Phenomenal Forearm on Tye but Baron is able to throw AJ to the outside and pin Dillinger himself.

It wasn’t bad as it could. Tye is weird, it has good moments but wasn’t really able to put Corbin over who won stealing the pin which is interesting. He’s clearly not portrayed as a monster anymore. Hopefully AJ moves to better things. 2.75 starz.

Charlotte Flair defeated Natalya (c) via disqualification for the WWE SmackDown Women's Championship.

From a pure wrestling standpoint this was my match of the night. The finish was a screwy mess but that’s what they do so yeah. Charlotte got a uberface promo package with his dad and all that jazz and Nattie really carries that belt well. She looked great. Match starts with Flair having fun, showing her physical talent but Natalya commences working her leg viciously. Charlotte’s selling was so great during the course of the match and really made it for me. Cool sit out power bomb by the Canadian, Flair kicks out. Charlotte went for the Moonsault two times without success but finally hits the third on the outside. At this point i had the match bordering four stars, considering its unfavourable position on the card, being given short time - 12 minutes, good for fourth best on the card and tied with Mahal-Nakamura but still - and a pretty dead crowd (not their fault) but they went for a DQ finish. Nattie grabbed a chair and hit Flair. 

With little time they managed to tell a clear story balancing spots and psychology. Natalya is a very solid performer, hope they have more time down the line. The finish didn’t do much for me, i think Charlotte could have eaten a pin given the good selling. 3.5 starz.

Jinder Mahal (c) (with The Singh Brothers) defeated Shinsuke Nakamura for the WWE Championship.

If Jinder’s push was for the US Championship i could be behind it. He’s a good cartoon villain, has a great entrance and looks intense. Plus his trunks are great. But he’s astonishingly boring. He’s only capable of working the WWE style and it doesn’t mesh well with the limitations they put on Nakamura’s working ability. But the crowd was enough into it to create a nice atmosphere. Mahal did a nice suplex and basement dropkick early on. After a couple of interferences both Singh Brothers got thrown out by the referee (Lil’Naitch). Kinshasa by Nakamura but it takes time for the ref to come back in the ring so Jinder has time to recover and reaches the ropes. Shinsuke goes for another one but Mahal dodges an catches him with the Khallas for the pin.

The belt means nothing. The match was fine. Serviceable. Given the history and the supposed prestige of the belt it’s not enough. Not sure where this leaves Nakamura though. Technically he lost clean and i absolutely get why someone who has never seen him in NJPW is rather puzzled by the anticipation that preceded his arrival. Jinder looks weirdly strong and we are left wondering. 2 starz.

Bobby Roode defeated Dolph Ziggler. 

Dolph came in dressed in black with no music or titantron. Maybe he’s really going away. Maybe it’s best for him. Roode got his usual reaction, although is strange seeing him smiling so much. Match started with hard hits by Bobby but we rapidly transitioned into the beatdown of the face phase of the match. The two have good chemistry but the program is so empty. Some weird “Let’s go Ziggler” chants at this point. In the end Ziggler goes for a Sweet Chin Music, Roode evades and tries a Glorious DDT but Ziggler escapes. Some back and forth as they exchange roll ups as Roode finally wins with a handful of tights. Right after the finish Ziggler catches him with a ZigZag. 

A heel turn? With Ziggler? Weird. Maybe they’re planting the seeds. Maybe the fuel will go into the later part of the year. They both need a strong program so maybe it’s time to move to better things. 2.15 starz.

Kevin Owens defeated Shane McMahon in a Falls Count Anywhere Hell in a Cell match.

It’s always difficult for Owens to generate some legit heel heat. I mean the guy is almost right in his quest to kill Shane McMahon. They brawl outside right from the get-go then they come into the cage and start working it. Shane is a really bad worker but if he’s with someone good enough to carry the match for him, he can tell a good story. Hit a nice DDT, tries the shooting star press (again) but fails (again) as KO evades. Cool powerbomb countered with an armbar by SOM and then a Coast 2 Coast! With a garbage bin. Poor Owens. So the structure was pretty classic as a brawl leads into a KO beatdown of the face and that led to Shane (long) come back. They go outside of the cage and as Owens sets SOM con the Spanish table and prepares for some sort of splash from the barricade he decides that no, it isn’t enough. Stares at the top of the cage, points at his elbow (great touch) and starts climbing. So Shane eventually reaches him and they fight on top of the cell. This was cool but went forever. Basically they teased breaking the cage and falling a bunch of times until KO falls on a table while climbing down the cage. Shane doesn’t pin him and goes for the elbow from the top but El GenerIMEAN SAMI ZAYN pulls Owens away then lays him on top of Shane, 123.

As for the tag match, it would have been better with a bloodbath. But, luckily, they don’t do that kind of stuff anymore. They told a clear story and Sami Zayn involvement was interesting, to say the least. Lots of emotions. 4 starz.

So yeah! That was it. A really enjoyable show! I’m not sure i’ll keep doing this longish reviews though since i’m the only one reading them. Probably i’ll stick to rating and a couple of general thoughts. Next: King of Pro-Wrestling, from Tokyo Sumo Hall. Spoiler: it was awesome.

[junker-town]

There is no set of expectations Navy and Ken Niumatalolo won’t defy

Bet against the Midshipmen. Ever. I dare you.

This preview was originally published April 28 and has since been updated.

Technically, I was right.

Technically, when I said in last year’s Navy preview that “Navy's facing more retooling than normal, and Keenan Reynolds was special. You don't simply replace him,” and “I find it difficult to imagine Navy remaining in the S&P+ top 50,” I ended up proven correct. I was right that defensive regression would be an issue, and I was right to think that turnover at QB would impact that win total. Technically, you can chalk one up for the ol’ numbers guy.

The numbers guy, however, definitely needed some technicalities to be right, though. Some quarterback injuries, too.

In 2016, Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo produced his most inspired coaching job yet. He lost the greatest Navy QB in five decades, then lost said QB’s heir apparent in Week 1. He had to deal with turnover and youth in the front and back of his defense. And yet, despite this, his Midshipmen won the AAC West title and began the year 9-2. From the perspective of Off. S&P+, they improved offensively. It was mind-blowing.

It took another quarterback injury to finally drag the Midshipmen down. Will Worth, the backup’s backup in 2015, had rushed for 25 touchdowns and thrown for nearly 1,400 yards out of Niumatalolo’s option attack when he got hurt early against Temple in the AAC title game. His team was already off to an awful start in the game, but Worth’s injury assured there would be no bounce back in an eventual 34-10 title game loss to Temple.

The next week, with sophomore Zach Abey, the third-stringer, behind center, Navy fell to Army for the first time since 2001. And despite an inspired Abey performance (278 combined rushing and passing yards), the Middies lost an Armed Forces Bowl shootout to Louisiana Tech, too. The exhilarating 9-2 start became a 9-5 finish.

Sticking the landing is hard sometimes. All the skills that it took to send you hurtling through the air with grace and elegance — the power, the speed, etc. — are worthless to you, and suddenly the only factors that matter are balance and ankles and geometry. Navy hurtled through the air with unexpected explosiveness, then fell to the ground. What I expected to become a mulligan year of sorts, technically became one. But now Abey’s back with a year of prep time. The offensive line is dealing with a little less turnover than normal. The defense returns almost all of its back eight. And somehow offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper hasn’t been hired away to become a head coach somewhere yet. Niumatalolo and Jasper have mastered every nuance of the triple option, and if they hadn’t proven it before 2016, they had after it.

In last year’s Navy preview, I also said this:

Long-term, Navy will be fine. The program kept Niumatalolo despite interest from BYU, and recruiting and depth of talent probably haven't been this strong in a long while. If there is a step backward, it won't be permanent.

There’s more turnover to deal with, to be sure, but Navy proved its upside last fall. Assuming the Midshipmen haven’t lost any sort of psychological edge following their first loss to Army in a generation, they should again play at a top-50 or top-60 level. They should again frustrate the living hell out of most of the opponents on the docket. And hell, they might even improve offensively once again. Who would bet against it at this point?

(Of course, they might want to figure out how to get that defense under control.)

2016 in review

2016 Navy statistical profile.

With help from the aforementioned injuries, Navy was about the team I expected in the first four games and final three. In the middle seven, however, the Midshipmen established a ridiculously high level of play.

First 4 games (3-1): Avg. percentile performance: 42% (~top 75) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 6.3, Opp 5.6 (plus-0.7) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-0.5 PPG

Next 7 games (6-1): Avg. percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 7.3, Opp 6.9 (plus-0.4) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-19.3 PPG

Last 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 44% (~top 70) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 6.2, Opp 5.9 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-7.8 PPG

All things considered, the iffy start and midseason surge were perfectly timed. The MIdshipmen began the season with three straight teams that ranked in the triple digits in S&P+ — FCS’ Fordham, then UConn and Tulane — and managed to start 3-0 despite inconsistency and a couple of close calls.

Granted, they lost to Air Force, but beginning with the October 8 visit from Houston, this surge in quality coincided with a surge in schedule quality. Navy played five straight teams that ranked 55th or better, and the team that eked by UConn went 4-1 in this stretch.

Of course, any talk of good timing goes out the window when you think about the importance of the games at the end. Navy was already in the process of laying an egg against Temple when Worth got hurt, then completed a winless year against fellow service academies by falling to Army. Still, the midseason surge reinforced Navy’s position within the AAC and took a couple of steps toward further dispelling the notion that joining a conference would be in any way bad for the Midshipmen. Two years in, the AAC partnership has been a rousing success.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

In my recent Air Force preview, I said this about turnover:

My annual S&P+ projections are derived from three factors: recent performance, two-year recruiting, and returning production. Two of those three factors don’t really apply to the Falcons; recruiting matters, but AFA’s rigorous process filters out a lot of commitments before they see the field, and returning production has an almost inverse relationship with Air Force. For the Falcons, losing a ton of last year’s production means the process is working. If you return a lot of last year’s important players, the previous senior class didn’t do its job.

There are obvious parallels between Navy’s and Air Force’s recruiting and retention. And there are obvious reasons why my method of projection for S&P+ is going to automatically downgrade service academies.

Navy has ranked an average of 52nd in S&P+ over the last four years but is projected to fall to 71st this year in part because of drastic offensive turnover. But turnover is just part of the game. The Midshipmen had to replace three of their top four rushers, three of their top four receivers, and three offensive line starters in 2015 and improved from 37th to 23rd in Off. S&P+. The next year, they replaced Keenan Reynolds, four of their top five backs, three of their top four targets, and all five line starters and improved to 17th.

Here’s what Navy has to replace in 2017: Worth, five of the top seven running backs, three of the top four targets, and three all-conference linemen. By comparison, that almost seems too easy. Time for the next batch of juniors and seniors to take over.

No matter the names of the starters, Navy’s attack is relentlessly efficient.

Navy’s success rate was more than five percent higher than anyone else’s in the AAC, and this wasn’t exactly an offense-unfriendly conference.

It would be easy to simply say that Navy’s offense will probably be very similar despite turnover, and such a statement would probably be right. But let’s take a moment to at least look into what might be unique aspects of the 2017 attack:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Zach Abey

Zach Abey. Abey was thrown into an impossible situation. His first action came with his team down three touchdowns in the AAC title game, and his first start was in the rivalry game of all rivalry games. But his bowl performance against Louisiana Tech was intriguing — among other things, he went 4-for-6 for 71 yards on passing downs, which almost seems unfair in an option attack — and in a small sample size, his rushing nearly matched Worth’s from an efficiency standpoint while his explosiveness (9.1 highlight yards per opportunity) was off the charts. He took too many sacks and threw four picks to one interception, but the potential is obvious.

Running back depth. Does Navy have any? The Midshipmen are used to losing their starters, but last year’s backups are gone, too. Not including sacks, last year’s top nine rushers gained 4,109 yards on the ground. Those responsible for 2,913 of those yards are gone, and only one returning fullback (Chris High) and one returning slotback (Darryl Bonner) rushed for more than 71 yards. This will test the plug-and-play aspect of Navy’s backfield, perhaps especially from a blocking perspective.

Chris High. That said, the Middies still have a uniquely awesome talent in Chris High. We’re used to explosive slotbacks and fullbacks who average about 5 yards per carry, but High averaged 6.4 last year, and while carrying 224 pounds. Assuming new explosive slotbacks emerge — and it’s worth mentioning that Malcolm Perry and Jahmaal Daniel combined to average 9.4 yards per carry in reserve time — High and Abey should assure that the run game is as dangerous as ever. At least, they will as long as losing the aforementioned all-conference linemen doesn’t hurt too much.

Depth will be tested this fall, especially at slotback. But any offense run by Niumatalolo and Jasper gets the benefit of the doubt.

(Seriously, Every School Looking to Make a Head Coaching Hire at the End of 2017: take a long, hard look at Jasper. He’s ready.)

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Chris High

Defense

When you’ve got a relentlessly efficient offense capable of eating the ball for half a quarter at a time, your opponent is prone to getting restless. According to Niumatalolo’s philosophy, that’s the perfect situation for a bend-don’t-break defense to have success. When you don’t have the natural talent and athleticism to make a ton of plays, let your opponent’s impatience act like a 12th defender. Let them force the issue, and be prepared to take advantage of the mistakes that follow.

Air Force’s Troy Calhoun takes the opposite approach — his Falcon defense is aggressive as hell and has ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 70 for two of the last three years and six of the last 10. But to each their own. Both teams have won 28 games since the start of 2014, so either can work.

Navy’s approach didn’t really work last year, though. After surging to 51st in Def. S&P+ (their first time higher than 83rd since 2009), the Midshipmen plummeted back to 100th. The run defense was effective, but with a freshman and sophomore safety in the back, the pass defense was lacking. Navy ranked 121st in Passing S&P+ and 118th in Passing Downs S&P+. There was no pass rush, and the young safeties were not quite ready to pounce on mistakes in the back. Opponents produced a 156.8 passer rating, Navy picked off only seven balls in 14 games, and five opponents (including Connecticut, of all teams) completed at least 67 percent of their passes.

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Tyris Wooten

That’s not going to cut it. Luckily, 2016’s uncharacteristic youth in the secondary could become 2017’s uncharacteristic continuity. Six of last year’s top seven defensive backs return, and they could get a jolt of competition from a pair of former three-star cornerbacks, junior Elijah Jones and sophomore Noruwa Obanor.

In theory, the cornerback position should be fine, especially if Jones and Obanor indeed make a push. Senior Tyris Wooten had plenty of sketchy moments, but he also defensed 12 passes, more than twice as many as anyone else in the secondary.

The safety position, however, faces the onus of improvement. And honestly, improvement should come. Defensive coordinator Dale Pehrson asked a lot of freshman Alohi Gilman last year [update: Gilman has since transferred to rival Notre Dame], and he responded with five tackles for loss (combined, Navy’s safeties had 0.5 TFLs in 2015) and five breakups. If he and junior Sean Williams are steadier, the pass defense could at least improve to closer to 100th. And the return of outside linebacker D.J. Palmore could be key to rejuvenating the pass rush a bit.

If opponents can’t pass as well, they might be forced to think about running. That would be excellent for the Midshipmen. Granted, the defensive line has to replace three of last year’s top four, but end Jarvis Polu is a keeper, and I’m really intrigued by younger players Jackson Pittman (a 315-pound sophomore nose guard) and Anthony Villalobos (a three-star junior end).

The linebacking corps should be capable of cleaning up a lot of messes, too. Six of last year’s top seven return, including Palmore and leading tackler Micah Thomas. Navy’s defense was definitely younger than normal in 2016, and the effects were obvious. But those effects could wear off now that this is again a defense dominated by juniors and seniors instead of sophomores and juniors.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

D.J. Palmore

Special Teams

Navy’s absurdly precise offense was the main weapon for overcoming defensive issues, but special teams helped. Navy ranked 31st in Special Teams S&P+, either average or excellent in every single category. Dishan Romine was the most efficient kick returner in the nation, and Calvin Cass Jr. wasn’t that far behind in the punt returns department. Alex Barta’s kicks were high and relatively long.

Romine, Cass, and Barta are all gone in 2017, however. That’s a little scary, though there’s reason for hope — backup return men Craig Scott (PR) and Tre Walker (KR) were nearly as effective, and before losing his job in part because of a blocked punt, Erik Harris was booming punts at a 45.1-yard clip. He could be excellent in both the punt and kickoff departments, and place-kicker Bennett Moehring is at least decent: he missed three PATs and two shorter field goals but also boomed in both of his longer field goal attempts. This should still probably be a top-50 unit.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep at Florida Atlantic 99 5.5 62% 9-Sep Tulane 94 9.5 71% 23-Sep Cincinnati 75 3.7 58% 30-Sep at Tulsa 77 -1.1 48% 7-Oct Air Force 116 14.1 79% 14-Oct at Memphis 61 -6.5 35% 21-Oct Central Florida 78 4.0 59% 3-Nov at Temple 67 -5.3 38% 11-Nov SMU 81 6.3 64% 18-Nov at Notre Dame 17 -18.3 15% 24-Nov at Houston 49 -7.9 32% 9-Dec vs. Army 102 8.9 70%

Projected S&P+ Rk 71 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 50 / 93 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 2.1 (59) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 83 / 85 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 2 / 7.6 2016 TO Luck/Game -2.0 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 53% (32%, 74%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.2 (1.8)

You’re not supposed to lose an all-timer at QB, lose two more guys to injury, and produce a top-20 offense. You’re not supposed to recruit at barely a top-90 level but feel disappointed with a No. 52 final ranking. You’re not supposed to win nine games at a service academy and feel underwhelmed. But this is where Ken Niumatalolo has set the bar.

Figuring out where to set expectations in a given year basically requires starting with the S&P+ projection but then applying the Navy adjustment. Returning production doesn’t impact this team the way it does most, and recruiting rankings aren’t in any way as predictive.

Then there’s the Niu adjustment. Based on win expectancy and second-order wins, Niumatalolo’s Navy wins more than a game per year than expected, and that average was calculated before last year’s 1.8-win overachievement.

There are concerns; there always are. The turnover was a little more significant than normal at running back, which could lead to inconsistency and depth issues. And we probably shouldn’t just assume that experience alone will cure what ailed the defense.

Still, this is Navy. Adjustments are necessary. The Midshipmen return only 32 percent of last year’s offensive production? That probably means falling all the way to about 30th, not 50th as projected. And the Midshipmen are projected to win about six games? I’ll set the over-under at 8 then.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

[gabrielegelsi]

Stage and Theatre Photography

“It is really difficult to shoot in theatre, light is really poor” or “it’s not difficult to create wonderful images shooting during a play, since it is basically something designed to please the eyes”

These are the two opposite statements that I often hear about shooting during a theatrical performance. I believe these ideas to be both correct and incorrect. Both in different ways.

Roberto Herlitzka, ‘Il soccombente’, 2012

Theatre is not a simple subject to shoot, but not because of “poor lighting". Sometimes the light is poor, other times the light is too much. Or it could be turned off in the exact moment you were going to shoot.

Theatre uses light as a language, and as a language light will change direction, color or intensity many times during a show. That's why it could be difficult to shoot in theatre: once you have nicely composed your frame and you are finally ready to shoot, everything changes!

The other statement stresses on the idea that, being something that is “made to be watched, to ease the eye”, Theatre is an easy subject for photographers. And this is -in part- true. With a bit of experience every photographer could create stunning images of a theatrical show. However there are risks: being dazzled by actors’ expressive faces, illuminated by coloured lights and wearing elaborate costumes could make you forget the primary mission of the stage photographer in theatre: using his cultural awareness to understand what a show wants to say in the first place, and then translate this message in a photographic form. In other words, with pictures.

How to understand the meaning of a theatre play then? Maybe there are many possibilities, but I only know one: watching and taking part at as many rehearsal as possible, speaking with the director, the set and light designers, actors, and technicians. Study the play. If you are reading this tutorial it means you love photography but you also love theatre. So keep loving what you photograph because knowing the subject, studying hard what you are going to shoot, is probably the only rule that can be applied to all the different genres and branches of photography. If you don’t have a true passion for what you photograph, your pictures will never be so great. And there is a reason: the more you will know about every aspect of a show, the more you will be prepared to shoot at the right time.

Lindsay Kemp, ‘Inventions and Reincarnations’, 2015

From a technical standpoint, while some performances may be more difficult than others, there are some basic rules and principles you can follow:

The best lenses are the brightest ones, which happens to be -accidentally- the most expensive one as well. But you already knew that. Luckily most cameras can use high ISO without losing too much in term of image quality, so try to find the best compromise between your budget, your needs and your aspirations. There are plenty of forums and website about the best cameras, lenses, brands and accessories available: you can have fun finding your best fit there. 


Back to Theatre, if you will take photographs during a rehearsal you will be able to stay closer to the actors, maybe to stay even on stage: you will need a wide angle and a medium zoom.

If you have to take pictures during the show, with the audience watching (and that’s what happens most of the time, especially when you start), you must pick a position and stick to that, trying to move the less you can. There are basically two options: in the room, behind the audience and at the side of the stage, or on stage behind the scenery exit. In the first case you will need a zoom. In the second case a wide angle again.

Try not to shoot during tense moments of silence (I know, these are usually the best moments, with the actors posing in interesting way or with a particular intense facial expression): but the ‘click’ of the shutter will easily annoy both the audience and the actors. If you decide to stay on stage you will have a partial vision of the play but you will be closer to the actors. You will not be able to wander around and choose your composition, but maybe this will help you focus on what is going on on stage. A great example of this kind of approach are the photographs made by Alexey Brodovitch for his photographic book ‘Ballet’, which collects a series of pictures taken from the stage of the Ballets Russes.

Whether you are going to shoot from the room or from the stage, try to follow the rhythm of the play, let yourself carried away by the narration and by the history that is happening under your eyes first and your camera after. Try to be a little less a photographer and a bit more part of the audience: if you start to think about the correct exposure and composition of every shot you will never start to shoot!

Amanda Sandrelli e Blas Roca Rey, ‘Non c'è tempo amore’, 2011

Set your camera in the spot mode and underexpose one stop or more: it is better to have a dark image easily to fx in post production than one perfectly exposed but easily blurry. Try not to go under 1/60, even more depending on the lens you are using and how steady your hand is. You can go with a longer time and create a movement effect, using for instance panning technique and again by trying and then trying harder.

These are just a few suggestions to a photographic approach to theatre, but as said before, it is not a matter of taking good pictures. After a bit of practice you will do that, I promise. But the moment you start to understand how to take pictures in theatre, you should start thinking about the most important thing: what is the true meaning of this play I am watching right now, and how can I translate this message using my photos? And I am sorry to tell you there is no tutorial for that.

[junker-town]

There is no set of expectations Navy and Ken Niumatalolo won’t defy

Bet against the Midshipmen. Ever. I dare you.

Technically, I was right.

Technically, when I said in last year’s Navy preview that “Navy's facing more retooling than normal, and Keenan Reynolds was special. You don't simply replace him,” and “I find it difficult to imagine Navy remaining in the S&P+ top 50,” I ended up proven correct. I was right that defensive regression would be an issue, and I was right to think that turnover at QB would impact that win total. Technically, you can chalk one up for the ol’ numbers guy.

The numbers guy, however, definitely needed some technicalities to be right, though. Some quarterback injuries, too.

In 2016, Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo produced his most inspired coaching job yet. He lost the greatest Navy QB in five decades, then lost said QB’s heir apparent in Week 1. He had to deal with turnover and youth in the front and back of his defense. And yet, despite this, his Midshipmen won the AAC West title and began the year 9-2. From the perspective of Off. S&P+, they improved offensively. It was mind-blowing.

It took another quarterback injury to finally drag the Midshipmen down. Will Worth, the backup’s backup in 2015, had rushed for 25 touchdowns and thrown for nearly 1,400 yards out of Niumatalolo’s option attack when he got hurt early against Temple in the AAC title game. His team was already off to an awful start in the game, but Worth’s injury assured there would be no bounce back in an eventual 34-10 title game loss to Temple.

The next week, with sophomore Zach Abey, the third-stringer, behind center, Navy fell to Army for the first time since 2001. And despite an inspired Abey performance (278 combined rushing and passing yards), the Middies lost an Armed Forces Bowl shootout to Louisiana Tech, too. The exhilarating 9-2 start became a 9-5 finish.

Sticking the landing is hard sometimes. All the skills that it took to send you hurtling through the air with grace and elegance — the power, the speed, etc. — are worthless to you, and suddenly the only factors that matter are balance and ankles and geometry. Navy hurtled through the air with unexpected explosiveness, then fell to the ground. What I expected to become a mulligan year of sorts, technically became one. But now Abey’s back with a year of prep time. The offensive line is dealing with a little less turnover than normal. The defense returns almost all of its back eight. And somehow offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper hasn’t been hired away to become a head coach somewhere yet. Niumatalolo and Jasper have mastered every nuance of the triple option, and if they hadn’t proven it before 2016, they had after it.

In last year’s Navy preview, I also said this:

Long-term, Navy will be fine. The program kept Niumatalolo despite interest from BYU, and recruiting and depth of talent probably haven't been this strong in a long while. If there is a step backward, it won't be permanent.

There’s more turnover to deal with, to be sure, but Navy proved its upside last fall. Assuming the Midshipmen haven’t lost any sort of psychological edge following their first loss to Army in a generation, they should again play at a top-50 or top-60 level. They should again frustrate the living hell out of most of the opponents on the docket. And hell, they might even improve offensively once again. Who would bet against it at this point?

(Of course, they might want to figure out how to get that defense under control.)

2016 in review

2016 Navy statistical profile.

With help from the aforementioned injuries, Navy was about the team I expected in the first four games and final three. In the middle seven, however, the Midshipmen established a ridiculously high level of play.

First 4 games (3-1): Avg. percentile performance: 42% (~top 75) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 6.3, Opp 5.6 (plus-0.7) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-0.5 PPG

Next 7 games (6-1): Avg. percentile performance: 70% (~top 40) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 7.3, Opp 6.9 (plus-0.4) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: plus-19.3 PPG

Last 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 44% (~top 70) | Avg. yards per play: Navy 6.2, Opp 5.9 (plus-0.3) | Avg. performance vs. S&P+ projection: minus-7.8 PPG

All things considered, the iffy start and midseason surge were perfectly timed. The MIdshipmen began the season with three straight teams that ranked in the triple digits in S&P+ — FCS’ Fordham, then UConn and Tulane — and managed to start 3-0 despite inconsistency and a couple of close calls.

Granted, they lost to Air Force, but beginning with the October 8 visit from Houston, this surge in quality coincided with a surge in schedule quality. Navy played five straight teams that ranked 55th or better, and the team that eked by UConn went 4-1 in this stretch.

Of course, any talk of good timing goes out the window when you think about the importance of the games at the end. Navy was already in the process of laying an egg against Temple when Worth got hurt, then completed a winless year against fellow service academies by falling to Army. Still, the midseason surge reinforced Navy’s position within the AAC and took a couple of steps toward further dispelling the notion that joining a conference would be in any way bad for the Midshipmen. Two years in, the AAC partnership has been a rousing success.

Offense

Full advanced stats glossary.

In my recent Air Force preview, I said this about turnover:

My annual S&P+ projections are derived from three factors: recent performance, two-year recruiting, and returning production. Two of those three factors don’t really apply to the Falcons; recruiting matters, but AFA’s rigorous process filters out a lot of commitments before they see the field, and returning production has an almost inverse relationship with Air Force. For the Falcons, losing a ton of last year’s production means the process is working. If you return a lot of last year’s important players, the previous senior class didn’t do its job.

There are obvious parallels between Navy’s and Air Force’s recruiting and retention. And there are obvious reasons why my method of projection for S&P+ is going to automatically downgrade service academies.

Navy has ranked an average of 52nd in S&P+ over the last four years but is projected to fall to 71st this year in part because of drastic offensive turnover. But turnover is just part of the game. The Midshipmen had to replace three of their top four rushers, three of their top four receivers, and three offensive line starters in 2015 and improved from 37th to 23rd in Off. S&P+. The next year, they replaced Keenan Reynolds, four of their top five backs, three of their top four targets, and all five line starters and improved to 17th.

Here’s what Navy has to replace in 2017: Worth, five of the top seven running backs, three of the top four targets, and three all-conference linemen. By comparison, that almost seems too easy. Time for the next batch of juniors and seniors to take over.

No matter the names of the starters, Navy’s attack is relentlessly efficient.

Navy’s success rate was more than five percent higher than anyone else’s in the AAC, and this wasn’t exactly an offense-unfriendly conference.

It would be easy to simply say that Navy’s offense will probably be very similar despite turnover, and such a statement would probably be right. But let’s take a moment to at least look into what might be unique aspects of the 2017 attack:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Zach Abey

Zach Abey. Abey was thrown into an impossible situation. His first action came with his team down three touchdowns in the AAC title game, and his first start was in the rivalry game of all rivalry games. But his bowl performance against Louisiana Tech was intriguing — among other things, he went 4-for-6 for 71 yards on passing downs, which almost seems unfair in an option attack — and in a small sample size, his rushing nearly matched Worth’s from an efficiency standpoint while his explosiveness (9.1 highlight yards per opportunity) was off the charts. He took too many sacks and threw four picks to one interception, but the potential is obvious.

Running back depth. Does Navy have any? The Midshipmen are used to losing their starters, but last year’s backups are gone, too. Not including sacks, last year’s top nine rushers gained 4,109 yards on the ground. Those responsible for 2,913 of those yards are gone, and only one returning fullback (Chris High) and one returning slotback (Darryl Bonner) rushed for more than 71 yards. This will test the plug-and-play aspect of Navy’s backfield, perhaps especially from a blocking perspective.

Chris High. That said, the Middies still have a uniquely awesome talent in Chris High. We’re used to explosive slotbacks and fullbacks who average about 5 yards per carry, but High averaged 6.4 last year, and while carrying 224 pounds. Assuming new explosive slotbacks emerge — and it’s worth mentioning that Malcolm Perry and Jahmaal Daniel combined to average 9.4 yards per carry in reserve time — High and Abey should assure that the run game is as dangerous as ever. At least, they will as long as losing the aforementioned all-conference linemen doesn’t hurt too much.

Depth will be tested this fall, especially at slotback. But any offense run by Niumatalolo and Jasper gets the benefit of the doubt.

(Seriously, Every School Looking to Make a Head Coaching Hire at the End of 2017: take a long, hard look at Jasper. He’s ready.)

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Chris High

Defense

When you’ve got a relentlessly efficient offense capable of eating the ball for half a quarter at a time, your opponent is prone to getting restless. According to Niumatalolo’s philosophy, that’s the perfect situation for a bend-don’t-break defense to have success. When you don’t have the natural talent and athleticism to make a ton of plays, let your opponent’s impatience act like a 12th defender. Let them force the issue, and be prepared to take advantage of the mistakes that follow.

Air Force’s Troy Calhoun takes the opposite approach — his Falcon defense is aggressive as hell and has ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 70 for two of the last three years and six of the last 10. But to each their own. Both teams have won 28 games since the start of 2014, so either can work.

Navy’s approach didn’t really work last year, though. After surging to 51st in Def. S&P+ (their first time higher than 83rd since 2009), the Midshipmen plummeted back to 100th. The run defense was effective, but with a freshman and sophomore safety in the back, the pass defense was lacking. Navy ranked 121st in Passing S&P+ and 118th in Passing Downs S&P+. There was no pass rush, and the young safeties were not quite ready to pounce on mistakes in the back. Opponents produced a 156.8 passer rating, Navy picked off only seven balls in 14 games, and five opponents (including Connecticut, of all teams) completed at least 67 percent of their passes.

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Tyris Wooten

That’s not going to cut it. Luckily, 2016’s uncharacteristic youth in the secondary could become 2017’s uncharacteristic continuity. Six of last year’s top seven defensive backs return, and they could get a jolt of competition from a pair of former three-star cornerbacks, junior Elijah Jones and sophomore Noruwa Obanor.

In theory, the cornerback position should be fine, especially if Jones and Obanor indeed make a push. Senior Tyris Wooten had plenty of sketchy moments, but he also defensed 12 passes, more than twice as many as anyone else in the secondary.

The safety position, however, faces the onus of improvement. And honestly, improvement should come. Defensive coordinator Dale Pehrson asked a lot of freshman Alohi Gilman last year, and he responded with five tackles for loss (combined, Navy’s safeties had 0.5 TFLs in 2015) and five breakups. If nothing else, that provides confidence in Gilman’s upside. If he and junior Sean Williams are steadier, the pass defense could at least improve to closer to 100th. And the return of outside linebacker D.J. Palmore could be key to rejuvenating the pass rush a bit.

If opponents can’t pass as well, they might be forced to think about running. That would be excellent for the Midshipmen. Granted, the defensive line has to replace three of last year’s top four, but end Jarvis Polu is a keeper, and I’m really intrigued by younger players Jackson Pittman (a 315-pound sophomore nose guard) and Anthony Villalobos (a three-star junior end).

The linebacking corps should be capable of cleaning up a lot of messes, too. Six of last year’s top seven return, including Palmore and leading tackler Micah Thomas. Navy’s defense was definitely younger than normal in 2016, and the effects were obvious. But those effects could wear off now that this is again a defense dominated by juniors and seniors instead of sophomores and juniors.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

D.J. Palmore

Special Teams

Navy’s absurdly precise offense was the main weapon for overcoming defensive issues, but special teams helped. Navy ranked 31st in Special Teams S&P+, either average or excellent in every single category. Dishan Romine was the most efficient kick returner in the nation, and Calvin Cass Jr. wasn’t that far behind in the punt returns department. Alex Barta’s kicks were high and relatively long.

Romine, Cass, and Barta are all gone in 2017, however. That’s a little scary, though there’s reason for hope — backup return men Craig Scott (PR) and Tre Walker (KR) were nearly as effective, and before losing his job in part because of a blocked punt, Erik Harris was booming punts at a 45.1-yard clip. He could be excellent in both the punt and kickoff departments, and place-kicker Bennett Moehring is at least decent: he missed three PATs and two shorter field goals but also boomed in both of his longer field goal attempts. This should still probably be a top-50 unit.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep at Florida Atlantic 99 5.5 62% 9-Sep Tulane 94 9.5 71% 23-Sep Cincinnati 75 3.7 58% 30-Sep at Tulsa 77 -1.1 48% 7-Oct Air Force 116 14.1 79% 14-Oct at Memphis 61 -6.5 35% 21-Oct Central Florida 78 4.0 59% 3-Nov at Temple 67 -5.3 38% 11-Nov SMU 81 6.3 64% 18-Nov at Notre Dame 17 -18.3 15% 24-Nov at Houston 49 -7.9 32% 9-Dec vs. Army 102 8.9 70%

Projected S&P+ Rk 71 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 50 / 93 Projected wins 6.3 Five-Year S&P+ Rk 2.1 (59) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 83 / 85 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* 2 / 7.6 2016 TO Luck/Game -2.0 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 53% (32%, 74%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 7.2 (1.8)

You’re not supposed to lose an all-timer at QB, lose two more guys to injury, and produce a top-20 offense. You’re not supposed to recruit at barely a top-90 level but feel disappointed with a No. 52 final ranking. You’re not supposed to win nine games at a service academy and feel underwhelmed. But this is where Ken Niumatalolo has set the bar.

Figuring out where to set expectations in a given year basically requires starting with the S&P+ projection but then applying the Navy adjustment. Returning production doesn’t impact this team the way it does most, and recruiting rankings aren’t in any way as predictive.

Then there’s the Niu adjustment. Based on win expectancy and second-order wins, Niumatalolo’s Navy wins more than a game per year than expected, and that average was calculated before last year’s 1.8-win overachievement.

There are concerns; there always are. The turnover was a little more significant than normal at running back, which could lead to inconsistency and depth issues. And we probably shouldn’t just assume that experience alone will cure what ailed the defense.

Still, this is Navy. Adjustments are necessary. The Midshipmen return only 32 percent of last year’s offensive production? That probably means falling all the way to about 30th, not 50th as projected. And the Midshipmen are projected to win about six games? I’ll set the over-under at 8 then.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.