#recency bias | Explore Tumblr posts and blogs

cherryblossomshadow · 6 days ago

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That's also why this meme exists. (comment courtesy of @firedragon1321)

(comment courtesy of @oftengruntled)

They have a certain worldview, and accepting information to the contrary would require them to re-examine everything they believe to be true about the world, which would be immensely destabilizing and devastating. #yknow speaking for a friend who knows people like this (comment and tags courtesy of @softness-and-shattering)

As Robert Heinlein wrote, “Man is not a rational animal. Man is a rationalizing animal.” The words “confirmation bias” also float through my head. People make decisions based on many things besides the facts of the case. Yes, even you. Do pause every now and then to check your assumptions. And don’t be so convinced that you are right that you start acting hateful to those who disagree. #adulting #confirmation bias #check your assumptions #true that #Robert Heinlein (comment and tags courtesy of @76ello)

This is a fantastic description of what the term "confirmation bias" can actually mean. People generally don't make choices based on logic. We act based on our emotions, then our brain comes up with logic to justify it. (comment courtesy of @captain-acab)

The phrase " (you also do this) " is such a raw, essential thing to read. Everybody should encounter and process that in a true context. - regularly. #self-reflection#humility#relativism#the moment anyone truly thinks they are unbiased and marinated in only truth they should shut up and re-examine (comment and tags courtesy of @breathing-chaos)

More notes below the cut:

Something I’ve always said is that it helps to think of good or bad actions rather than good or bad people. Everyone is capable of evil, just as everyone is capable of good. It’s a choice rather than something innate about ourselves. Always. #I was gonna elaborate on this but wow I can not find a way to word it properly #so #there you go #anyways yes I agree with all of this #text #politics #sam says #for queue (comment courtesy of @moonshine-angels)

These are all good points, but in the US, it's not nothing that 25% of the population are part of an extremist religion that actively teaches you *not* to use critical thinking or examine your beliefs, so "raised in a cult" is a lot closer for a lot more people than I think OP realizes (comment courtesy of @sparrow-in-the-sea)

ive read this list like four times and if it mentions "they were wrong because figuring things out is hard" I can't tell. which is bonkers, because that's the main reason like, it lists a lot of Social Reality reasons why people might be wrong, but it very notably excludes "actually they tried their best, they didn't make any obvious biased mistake, it just turns out it's hard to evaluate evidence" like damn imagine if the thing being discussed was, like, why do people get the answers to math problems wrong and you gave this list as a reason why. my guy it's because math is hard. and everything in the real world is way harder than math. Nevermind all the biases and emotions etc etc that get in the way: even if you were the Perfect Neutral Observer you would still fuck up constantly because figuring out what's true is fucking hard. the fact that we're not perfect neutral observers makes it harder but it would be an incredibly difficult problem anyway. (comment courtesy of @just-evo-now)

We get it in the abstract. We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes. The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine. But when it comes down to me, right now, to all the beliefs I hold, here in the present tense, suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility goes out the window -- and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about. And the thing is, the present tense is where we live.

We go to meetings in the present tense; we go on family vacations in the present tense; we go to the polls and vote in the present tense. So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life, trapped in this little bubble of feeling very right about everything. I think this is a problem. I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals, in our personal and professional lives, and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture. So what I want to do today is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck inside this feeling of being right. And second, why it's such a problem. And finally, I want to convince you that it is possible to step outside of that feeling and that if you can do so, it is the single greatest moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make. (emphasis mine) #ted talks #on being wrong #people are complicated #being wrong is part of life #I don't know; I might be wrong #we're all just stupid little blorbos toddling our single braincell down the road to disaster #my addition to a post (comment and tags courtesy of @krakenartificer)

Also those last set of things (random luck, right place right time, natural environment) led you to recognise when you were having those natural doubling-down, confirmation bias type responses and, even if they felt good, question if they were stopping you from making a choice based on your own values (which are resultant of the abovementioned natural environment/random luck/right place right time etc. anyway, but a lot of people share theoretical values who believe in extremely different things). And lots of the time you find that your knee-jerk reaction was justified, but you keep asking those questions so when something comes along that makes you think Wrong! Bad! Gross! You actually parse it out and go, 'Actually, this isn't hurting anyone, it just gives me the ick. It isn't me cup of tea, but morally, it's fine.' That's a thing about figuring out how to be a better person. It involves a lot of actual figuring out. And sometimes that doesn't feel good because your instinctual feelings were off the mark and we don't like being wrong. (Or at least, I don't like being wrong. Maybe I'm wrong about that.) But it stops us becoming people we don't want to be. #I think of this a lot when I write villains #which is very fraught anyway because so many bad guys have been racially or sexually coded as other #but I always think a genuine no-redemption-for-you bad guy shouldn't always be sympathetic but should always be in some way relatable #so when the heroes have that knee-jerk reaction of 'Oh I don't like that. That should stop!' like the bad guy #They can then have a Mitchell and Webb 'are we the baddies' moment and try to make better choices #not perfect choices but better ones #because making bad guys completely unrelatably evil bears no resemblance to most of the bad guys we see in the real world #or the bad guys we could so easily become if we didn't actively try to make better choices (comment courtesy of @glasscatowl)

I'd like to submit one that doesn't seem to match those above (and it might, actually, it's possible I've misinterpreted something,) but just in case and because I think this is all important: They were taught an incorrect "fact" by a source they trusted (a teacher, a professor, a doctor,) and have never had a reason to question it / are not being given a reason to question it by a source they trust. (You also do this.) To give a (somewhat) benign* example of this: the extremely common misunderstanding of wolf behavior. Many, many, many people were taught based on Mech's original publications at relatively young ages. Though people who are specifically into that subject are aware that Mech himself refuted his own work, the misinformation was already spread into the public psyche and there are many people who, to this day, earnestly believe that version without any kind of ill will or intent. And yes, those same people will often push back against being corrected. That can be for a lot of reasons, including the ones above, but also--possibly--because the person who is correcting them may be, ironically, less overtly credentialed than the person who told them the wrong information in the first place. Plenty of people who should know better are still pushing that narrative, after all. It's tempting to say that anyone being given a hint that there is different or conflicting information should just automatically go seek it out, but also consider that... there's only so much time and energy in anyone's day. Is someone who doesn't deal with wolves, has no real interest in wolves, and doesn't write an inordinate amount of wolf-related porn really going to go out of their way to delve into the mess of who is telling the truth about wolf behavior? Not likely. They're probably going to go with the version taught to them by the person they trust. *"Benign" : I'm aware that this specific bit of research has led to some seriously gnarly beliefs about human behavior (somehow) and otherwise dove-tailed into a lot of weird manosphere and tradwife nonsense. Not to mention animal abuse. That's actually part of why I picked it. The root belief here is fairly benign on its face, but when you know the evils that it's propping up it can be easy to have a knee jerk reaction to anyone who holds to that root belief. But they aren't the same. Treating them like they are can be heinously detrimental to everyone. But even if one does follow the other, being condescending or making bad faith assumptions about why the person believes what they believe will generally only make the situation worse, not better. #I agree with OP though I can't help but notice that all of their assumptions are somewhat... negative seeming #That doesn't make them wrong but there are also more... neutral things that people do. such as this #i really hope i don't regret speaking today (comment and tags courtesy of @cursedwithgloriouspurpose)

when the subject of "why do people believe things that are seriously wrong and harmful" comes up it feels like you kinda hear one of two perspectives:

"oh, that's easy! it's because they're fundamentally Bad people who want to hurt others and choose their beliefs to justify that! :) hope this helps"

"they just don't have access to the same information we do. look at this person who was raised in a cult! don't you feel sorry for her?"

and like, yes, fine, some people were in fact raised in cults, but what i wish people would understand is that the bulk of it is just normal human flaws, like:

they want to believe stuff that makes them feel smart and cool and like they've figured everything out (you also do this)

they want to believe stuff that makes them feel like their emotions are justified and grounded in reality, and that the people they want to hurt deserve to be hurt (you also do this)

they form conclusions before they've processed all the relevant information, and cling to that first impression even when new info comes to light (you also do this)

they pick up beliefs from the people around them because they want to be liked and fit in, not because the beliefs are good or true (you also do this)

they come up with reasons that the stuff that benefits them (and the people they like and identify with) is actually overwhelmingly best for everyone and obviously the right thing to do (you also do this)

they pay more attention to stuff that supports what they already believe and avoid looking in places that might show them otherwise (you also do this)

they listen to people who talk like 'one of them' and ignore others (you also do this)

they come up with reasons to dismiss people with conflicting viewpoints as obviously in bad faith or ignorant or a shill or evil (you also do this)

they fail to take their own beliefs seriously sometimes, and take their beliefs way too seriously other times, in a selective way that lets them do the things they already wanted to do (you also do this)

the very ways they construct the ideas of 'knowledge' and 'wisdom' and 'belief' and 'understanding' are biased so that what they don't want to believe comes under lots of scrutiny and what they do want to believe receives less (you also do this)

you, dear reader, are presumably right about everything and were correct to die on every hill you've ever died on, but the difference between you and someone who's wrong about important stuff doesn't look like "well they're inherently evil and i'm not", it probably looks like a combination of:

natural environment (they would have been exposed to different information than you regardless of their choices)

being in the right place at the right time (your particular profile of flaws and virtues happened to be what was needed to lead you to the right conclusions, they had the opposite experience)

random luck (you doubled down on what felt right to believe but wasn't, but it turned out to be inconsequential, or even right for different reasons, while they doubled down on what turned out to be a horrible mistake distorting their entire worldview)

you do less of the things in the previous list, and over time the difference between you and them adds up

and, look, i also do these things. the nicest and most thoughtful people i've ever met do these things. if you meet someone who never does any of these things, i dunno, give them a fucking medal or something.

i know you're doing your best. we're all doing our best.

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