#statistics important terms and definitions

[digiflora]

𝐇𝐎𝐖 𝐓𝐇𝐄𝐘 𝐇𝐄𝐋𝐏 𝐘𝐎𝐔 𝐃𝐔𝐑𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐌 𝐒𝐄𝐀𝐒𝐎𝐍!

... aka something super self indulgent because i'm going insane right now

༊*·˚ featuring ➻ the hsr men

༊*·˚ gia's notes ➻ this is probably gonna get posted way after exam season is over but here it is!!! my coping mechanism!!! i have 3 exams in 8 days im gonna explode bro. and before that i had a THREE HOUR STATISTICS EXAM 😀😀

ᯓ ᡣ𐭩 MAKES SURE THAT YOU SLEEP COMFORTABLY.

you've been running yourself into the ground recently with revision- yes, it's important and you need to study to get good grades, as he is more than aware of due to your multiple stressed rants to him when he suggests that you take a break.

it doesn't bother him, not really. he knows that you're beyond stressed right now and don't mean to be so snappy. he just wants to make sure that you're still taking care of yourself despite everything.

he's in your dorm room, not really making much noise, scrolling through reals with his phone on mute, just present to keep an eye on you and get you to take a break whenever it's been a little too long since you've moved from your desk.

it's some time where it's debatable whether it's very late or very early- both of your sleep schedules are fucked- and there comes a little thunk from your desk that interrupts the otherwise silent room.

your boyfriend glances up, smiling in triumph as he sees that you've finally succumbed to the nap that he's been trying to convince you to take for the past... 36 hours? something like that.

and now that your body has finally given in to exhaustion, he springs to action.

you'd been studying for days, you'd done more than enough for your upcoming exam, and a solid few hours of uninterrupted sleep is exactly what you need right now.

he slips off of your bed, his movements quiet and calculated as he sidles up next to you. your glasses are smushed against your face, and he gingerly removes them as gracefully as he can. you stir a little as he does so, and he grimaces, waiting for you to settle again.

it looked like you would wake up if he carried you to your bed- looks like he'll have to improvise.

he snags the fuzzy blanket folded neatly at the foot of your bed, wrapping it around your sleeping form still sat at your desk as best as he can. he then takes one of your smaller pillows, coaxing it between you and the solid wood of your desk as best as he can before admiring his handiwork.

hopefully, you wouldn't wake up with a stiff neck.

and finally, as a cherry on top, he places a kiss to your squished cheek and sits back down to let you take a well-deserved nap.

˚୨୧⋆｡˚ ⋆ BLADE, gallagher, BOOTHILL ++ your faves!

ᯓ ᡣ𐭩 IS YOUR PERSONAL ASSISTANT WHILE YOU'RE STRESSING.

you don't have to lift a single finger when he's around. luckily for you, his exams finished a lot earlier this term than yours did, leaving him ample time to help you as much as he is capable of.

and what an attentive boyfriend he is! amidst all the stress, you can't help but swoon for him all over again because of how attentive he's being towards you. he just wants you to help you study and not worry about anything else!

if you're hungry, he'll have a plate of food ready for you before the request has even left your mouth. your back or neck is aching due to being hunched over? his strong hands are rubbing circles into the muscle, making you sigh contentedly as the stiffness melts away.

he's honestly like an angel in your time of need.

you feel guilty about how one-sided this all is, but he merely smiles, giving you a quick kiss and assuring you that he understands and just wants you to do well. you almost cried because of how sweet he was being.

once these exams are over, you're definitely going to make it up to him.

˚୨୧⋆｡˚ ⋆ GEPARD, jing yuan, sunday ++ your faves!

ᯓ ᡣ𐭩 ACTS AS YOUR TEMPORARY STUDY PARTNER.

despite not doing your degree, he's clever, and he knows enough without googling to help you out when you revise.

he's an advocate for the "teach someone about a subject until they understand it as well as you do" and luckily for you, he's all ears... and even if he does get some things a little quicker than your fried brain can explain, he still bites his tongue and plays a little dumb to probe you further with questions to test your understanding.

it'll help in the exam.

you've decided that this is way better than being cramped in a booth in the library- you have the freedom to wave your arms around and pace the room, to fully illustrate your thoughts and knowledge as he flips through the colourful flashcards that you made, reading the answers on the back of each of them, grilling you on the questions like a tiger mum.

he'll be damned if you don't get an A.

˚୨୧⋆｡˚ ⋆ dan heng, DR RATIO, welt ++ your faves!

ᯓ ᡣ𐭩 DEFUSES YOU WHENEVER YOU'RE GETTING TOO STRESSED.

in the days leading up to your exams, it was best to describe your stomach as a pit of nerves. it was honestly distracting you from revising, all the pent up anxiety that churned within you until you were on the verge of a meltdown.

and while you may be too stressed to realise all of this and do something about it, your boyfriend's watchful eye realises this.

and so he does what he does best- he makes you feel better.

he pulls your body to rest against his where he lies in your bed, his large hand drawing comforting circles up and down your spine- and after a few minutes he can feel you melt into him, your body finally releasing the pent up stress that it's been holding for too long.

"it's ok to take a break, honey."

you sigh into him, and he hugs you tighter.

"c'mon, let's go outside for a few minutes. it'll help you feel a lot better."

you shake your head.

"you wanna just stay here for a bit?"

he feels you nod against his chest.

"ok, then let's do that."

˚୨୧⋆｡˚ ⋆ SAMPO, luocha, AVENTURINE ++ your faves!

IF YOU LIKED THIS, TRY ... do you want somebody like i want somebody?

the sweet and caring nature of the hsr men is also shown through them being your roommate <3

[literaryvein-reblogs]

Understanding a Scientific Article

Abstract

A brief description of the key points you will find in the paper. This can include:

Objectives: What questions the researchers hope to answer.

Methods: What type of study the researchers used to conduct the study.

Results: What the researchers discovered.

Discussion/conclusion: What the results mean and/or the author’s interpretation of the results.

Look at the date of the study.

Was it conducted in the past year? 5 years? 15 years? As new information is learned, scientific standards and techniques change, and practices evolve.

New research may support results from older studies as well as lead to new methods to diagnose and treat conditions and diseases.

New research can, at times, also contradict other research, which may require additional research to explore and resolve these differences.

Research can separate the good results from the bad results. In this way, the scientific method is self-correcting, which is reassuring.

Looking at the date can provide insight into how the study fits into the larger evidence base on a particular topic.

Methods

Detailed information on the type of research or approach used, the study’s design, the participants, the measurements or outcomes recorded, and steps taken to avoid bias.

Types of Research

Basic research: Scientists ask questions about theories or concepts, and test hypotheses to improve scientific knowledge. It’s the first step in any research.

Translational research: Researchers build on the observations and results of basic research to develop and test new ways to prevent, detect, or treat conditions and diseases.

Clinical trials: Well-planned clinical trials are done with people and may vary in size and type. Clinical trials give the clearest information about whether a treatment or a lifestyle change is effective and safe in humans. However, because they are complicated, lengthy, involve many research participants and can be very expensive, they are usually done only after smaller preliminary studies have been completed.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses: When researchers review each other’s research to check for quality and look for converging evidence among studies, they may write systematic reviews and meta-analyses. These look at different studies on the same topic. When many studies come to the same conclusion, it helps us know that the results are reliable and valid.

While all research studies are important and contribute to our knowledge base, clinical trials are the types of studies you probably hear about most often in the news. They can have the most immediate impact on improving health and treating disease.

Results

What the study showed.

The data, summaries, and analyses of the study are presented in this section. Tables, graphs, and charts that show the results are often included.

To better understand the results, you can ask these questions:

How do these results compare with previous studies?

A single study rarely provides a final, definitive answer.

Repeating a study using the same methods with different volunteers and investigators helps us know that the results are reliable and valid.

What do “statistically significant” and “clinically significant” mean?

Statistically significant means the differences observed between the groups are real and not likely due to chance.

Clinically significant is a measure of the size of the effects observed in the study, which shows the impact of the treatment.

A study can find statistically significant differences between two treatment groups, but the differences may be so small that they are not clinically significant in terms of usefulness for patients.

Are there potential conflicts of interest?

Did the study sponsor or the investigators have any financial or reputational "stake" in the outcome?

Most medical journal articles include information about relevant financial relationships.

Discussion

What the results mean.

This is where you can often find out how the study relates to your own health.

This section includes the authors’ explanation of, and own opinions about, what the results mean.

Since the conclusions are the authors’ own, others may or may not completely agree with their explanation of the results.

References

Previously published articles the authors used to review what related research was done before, to help design the study and interpret its results.

Source ⚜ More: Notes & References ⚜ Writing Resources PDFs

[dumb-butch-syndrome]

thanks for the thoughtful reply!

I'm not a professional artist so idk if I have enough skin in this game to give a properly considered answer (and I don't really want to speak for those who do), but to my understanding, calling generative AI plagiaristic comes from that place of them being by design incapable of providing attribution, regardless of how strongly their outputs are influenced by a specific artist. A human artist will typically know when it's appropriate to credit another artist with style / substance / etc. inspiration for one of their pieces and can provide attribution when appropriate. Generative AI has no way of knowing how heavily a specific artist's work has influenced its outputs because of the way a trained model works, so can't give attribution even if it's relevant or necessary.

When I added those tags, OP hadn't added the follow-ups that they were talking about copyright law, and I was looking at plagiarism from an academic standpoint rather than a legal one. In that framing I do still think plagiarism is a decent term for what these models do with their input data, if only because we don't currently have a more accurate word for the specific kind of large-scale impersonal unattributed use of other people's work that generative AI relies on. I don't know enough about copyright law (especially US copyright law, which I assume is what OP is talking about) to really have an opinion on that aspect.

The definition of "plagiarism" and "copying" being changed from "copying verbatim someone else's work" to "creating an entirely new never-seen-before piece of work with input from a tool that may have at one point read metadata about someone else's work" is such insane obvious batshit overreach, but people are repeating it as if it's a given just because it gives them a reason to hate the fucking machines.

So done with this conversation. After a year of trying to explain this stuff to people nicely I am just completely done with it.

[catbowserauthor]

2003 Raph Diagnosis

I went back and forth on Raph for a long time. I did consider a few diagnoses for him but here’s the thing—he doesn’t meet criteria for any of them. Either he doesn’t have all the symptoms or the symptoms he displays resolve.

See, a huge difference I noticed between Raph and his brothers is that the effects of what they’ve gone through don’t stick around with Raph like they do his siblings. Naturally, I started to consider why.

Simply put, Raph has more of what we call resilience than his siblings. Resilience in terms of psychology means that he bounces back and adapts to change readily.

Does this mean he didn’t have a reaction to the trauma they went through? Not at all. But Raph’s responses are receptive to change.

After they’re forced out of New York and his brother is hurt, Raph weeps (with support) and expresses his anger. He also devotes himself to helping his brother in a very productive way; they fix his swords together and discuss what happened while they do so (though we only see some of this). They PROCESS it.

After the battle on Ch’rell’s ship, Raph once again expresses his rage but then finds a productive means of healing—in this case, he steps into the leadership role Leo is struggling with and becomes a voice of reason for his brothers.

His means of helping are directly connected to outcomes of the trauma. This allows for continued processing of emotion even when it doesn’t feel like it. Raph is able to really accept and handle all the emotions their crazy lives give them.

Important to remember not everyone exposed to trauma gets #PTSD or a long trauma response. Only about 17%. Raph appears to fall outside that statistic, surprisingly.

As odd as it might seem to say, I think Raph’s anger served as a protective factor for him and I’ll tell you why:

Anger and Sadness are alarm emotions. Part of their purpose is to alert our support systems when we need help. Sadness is a much more subtle alarm but anger is loud and blaring.

Because people know Raph has temper, when his alarm goes off, they respond. When Raph is struggling, he has the support to work through things. Raph is also practical—not logical, but practical. Once his anger is spent, he’s the first to identify what needs to happen. Even if he doesn’t like it. I think we see this especially true in Season 4 when he realizes Leo isn’t at his best so he chooses to step up.

Another thing worth mentioning—Raph’s anger gets noticeably better as the series goes. Part of this is due to gaining more supports (Casey, Mrs. Morrison, Angel, etc), part of it is by gaining more coping skills (knitting especially forces him to slow down and be calm) but also he grows. While we don’t know how old the turtles are in the beginning, most series start them around 15.

Hormones are absolutely insane during puberty and I doubt that’s different for mutant turtle boys. The earlier ages of puberty are often the hardest as the body tries to figure out a balance, leading to outbursts or shorter tempers being more frequent. I think a lot of Raph’s earlier, more intense, anger can definitely have some influence from hormones. Some boys are more sensitive to it or they produce more. As Raph matures and grows, that naturally mellows out.

Lastly, let’s address the elephant in the room. The pipe vs Mikey incident. I think this is one of those blind rage situations where a perfect storm of circumstances came together—given we never see Raph have an outburst like that again. So let’s see:

—just lost his home he had from childhood (and presumably a lot of sentimental items)

—had his family attacked

—emerged topside for the first time since childhood, with separation from his father during this mess

—is in early/mid puberty with no support aside from his brothers and father

—is most likely feeling powerless given recent events

I think Mikey’s taunting was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back with a whole bunch of pressure that had been building up. And he actually handles the aftermath pretty well.

We see immediate regret, removing himself from the situation and he actually gains a confidante in Casey Jones that serves him through the rest of the series! And seeing Casey Jones demonstrating the kind of behavior Raph knows he has. Having to see it I think really drives home that motivation for Raph to improve.

And he does. He grows, uses coping skills, learns to reach out to his family (in his own way) and while he remains hotheaded and impulsive, it’s manageable.

So, would I give Raph a diagnosis? Truthfully…no. In order to have a mental health diagnosis, it has to be interfering negatively in your life and by the end of the series, Raph pretty much has his stuff handled.

Could he still benefit from some impulsivity therapy and development of coping skills, maybe a little more anger management? Yeah, but it’s not to a clinically significant level.

Raph gets V codes! (Or Z codes if you’re outside the USA)

What the heck are V codes, you ask?

V codes are indicators of something a client is working on but it’s not severe enough for a full blown diagnosis. So, things like siblings issues, housing issues, some need of more coping skills etc.

We’re going to assume Raph is self pay so I don’t HAVE to give a diagnosis (Yes, some insurances require this and it is one of the reasons why diagnosis of ‘mood disorder unspecified’ exists)

FINAL DIAGNOSIS:

V61.8 Sibling Relational Problem, High Expressed Emotion Level Within Family

V62.4 Target of (Perceived) Adverse Discrimination or Persecution

V62.89 Victim of Terrorism or Torture

V62.22 Exposure to Disaster, War, or Other Hostilities

V15.49 Other Personal History of Psychological Trauma

[sugarcoatedcherry]

SURE SHOT WAY TO ENTER VOID

Hello again, it's been a long while since I last saw yall.

I present you guys another fail proof method to tap into the void state. After my first void success, I have been entering void with only an intent. But during my "struggling days" this method immensely helped me getting closer in my very first try.

Anyway, I strongly urge you to follow this routine in case you haven't tapped into the void state yet.

Important : it requires you to disturb your sleep cycle. You can do it everyday but I recommend taking breaks in between so as to not mess with your circadian clock. Statistically speaking you have a 100% chance of entering void within the first 5 tries.

This challenge is heavily inspired by the phase method.

I am also combining the phase method with the lucid dream WBTB + MILD method for maximum success rate because even if you don't end up having OBE you will definitely end up in a lucid dream through which you can enter void.

The phase is an umbrella term for out of body experience (OBE), sleep paralysis, lucid dreaming, void, astral projection etc.

steps:

1. Maintain a dream journal - it helps in better dream recall which inturn helps in getting more lucid in your dreams. I recommend you going through the journal before sleeping

2. Regular reality checks - perform reality checks every 2 hours or as frequently as possible. some common ones are trying to breathe with nostrils closed, try to penetrate left hand fingers into right hand palm or simply stopping for a moment and trying to really observe if you are dreaming.

4. Subliminal - you can listen to your favorite void subliminals during the day

5. At night: Sleep for the first 6 hours, wake up to an alarm. Keep your mind busy for 5-10 minutes. While still being sleepy, go to bed. You can play subliminals or binaural beats, or just keep your mind busy by focusing on breathing or counting numbers backwards.

You will either 1. enter sleep paralysis through which you can affirm for void 2. wake up in void by affirming 3. fall back to sleep and end up in a lucid dream

So you see, the intent of this method was to enter void eitherways😉

I don't have to explain more about the first two possibilities. And about the lucid dream, step 1 and 2 will immensely help you get lucid in case you don't realise you're dreaming in a dream. Once you stabilise your dream enough, you can create a portal to void.

Also note that when you go back to bed after 6 hours of sleep, you might have many awakenings after a certain duration. I suggest you make use of those and affirm for void right after you wake up without moving much

That is it guys, I promise you will come back with a success story if you follow the routine diligently for the next one week, although one week is too much and you will definitely enter void in the next 2-4 days or this very night even. It all depends on your confidence. And of course, a strong intention without wavering will also land you to void. But for those who have been struggling for a long time, do give this method a try and let me know your progress.

[dropoutconfessions]

I wanna start off by saying that I agree with the fans who say that the rep of trans women and transmisogyny affected comedians on dropout isn't enough (because it is orders of magnitude less than the rep of cis people and less than 1/10 the rep of transmisogyny excluded trans comedians iirc).

But I have to disagree with some folks I see calling Sam and Brennan greedy rich assholes as an explanation for why they don't wanna platform transfemmes. Because when we talk about class, it's very important to separate specific levels of "rich" between comfortable and ultra wealthy.

Robert Reich of all politicians is not going to hoard wealth, but he probably did make Sam's life growing up more comfortable than most people and gave him some financial grace to pursue comedy. But Dropout as it used to be was bleeding money in 2020. They have less than a million paid subscribers, and they share profits with the cast AND they're paying the wages of the crew. However much money Sam and Brennan are making, it is nothing compared to a billion dollars. It's not clear how much they make, but say Sam is worth $50 million (a high random number that I think is still way too high for what he'd have). That's still only 5% of $1 billion. We are all closer to Sam's level of wealth than he is to, say, Jeff Bezos. Any kids he and his wife may have are going to have a comfortable life, and he is probably going to have a good retirement, but I think you still have to look at the scale of things. And Brennan is likely making less than Sam while still being financially stable, but he clearly knows what it's like to be broke and starving and is still heavily affected by that past to this day.

Is it possible that Sam and the folks in charge of hiring casting at Dropout think TMA folks are less likely to bring profit and that's why they don't hire them? I don't know. I'm not psychic. But the image of them some people push in regards to their class is straight up wrong.

DEFINITELY more TMA comedians besides Persephone (I love her and I would actually want to see more of her in addition to other new cast members) should be hired as cast for Dropout shows in general. I think Sam should/could also pass off hosting duties of Game Changer at the very least and possibly Make Some Noise, too, bc the amount of cis men representation from him and Brennan alone in comparison to any trans people but especially TMA people is insane. They're always going to have the seasons they ran, and they can still be cast once in a while.

But I really think this lack of representation started as a blind spot rather than evil intent to squeeze as much profit out of Dropout as possible the way some people think it is. If it continues after all this conversation about it (they film like a year in advance, so maybe some grace can be given), yeah, I'm going to be upset. I already canceled my subscription, though, tbh just because the statistics of rep in terms of cis men/women and transmascs/transfemmes is extremely disproportionate for the kind of work they do.

I haven't personally seen people make it a "greedy white cis men" thing, but yk, I'm not omniscient, could be a part of tumblr doing that. I personally don't think it's an intentional thing, that's the vicious part of normalized bigotry/lack of diversity, you don't notice it until you do.

I will say though, I don't think Sam needs to stop hosting either Game Changer or Make Some Noise, he's addressed them being his dream projects and like, a love letter to game shows, I don't think either would be as good without him.

But like, they're creating a lot of new shows, there's clearly space for new regulars on Dropout. There's space for us to be included, just gotta wait for them to answer our ask for an invite and all that.

[lonelywretchjervistetch]

The State Birds Initiative: Delaware (#1)

Welcome to the first official poll of the State Birds Initiative! Now, before the poll, one thing real quick. My suggestion is that you read the post below before voting in the poll below. That's especially important if you're lacking any context about the birds being presented as the new (or old) State Bird of the First State, Delaware. This is to be fully informed as to why these are being presented, and to make your choices appropriately. Lastly, some of these birds, you will notice, go against some of the rules listed in the introduction post. All is explained after the jump where the explanations are, I promise you that. But with that...OK! Here's the poll!

More details after the jump!

Welcome to Delaware, the First State!

Admitted into the Union in 1787 as the first state of this country, Delaware is the nation's second smallest, giving it the additional nickname "the Small Wonder"! Its capital is Dover, its most populous city if Wilmington (pictured above), and it's best known for its proximity to the Delaware River and the Delaware Bay, which it's actually named after. This does mean that Delaware Bay, for various reasons, will be one of the most important features of this post, since the wildlife that gathers around it is pretty ubiquitous in the state.

But OK, enough grade-school reporting of basic state statistics. What's Joe Biden's home state actually like, from the view of the citizens? On reddit, a user named hajisaurus said that Delaware is like a small town, but as an entire state. Compact, but eventful and familiar. Another user, raycooke, referred to it as the US condensed into miniature, with business in the north, beaches in the south and east, and farms in the middle. But the general vibe, it seems, is "familiar". Not overly friendly, but definitely close enough to be familiar. Also...the Bobbie.

God, that's a good looking sandwich. Invented in Delaware? Hell yeah. Anyway, off of turkey and onto birds. Personally, what all this says to me is that the chosen State Bird should be an easy-to-find sight, found throughout most of the state, and familiar to Delawareans in general. Something common but uniquely Delawarean would be great. In terms of habitat, water-bound seems appropriate, especially looking at beaches and estuaries. Again, the entire eastern border of the state touches the Delaware River or Bay, meaning water is somewhat important to the state (as is seafood).

Now, those Delawareans amongst us may have different opinions of what makes Delaware Delaware, and what represents its people most accurately. Which...yeah, I'm not from there, and I've only been there twice, and that's because I drove through it. Maybe went to one rest stop near Dover. And for the record, SOLID-ass rest stops in Delaware along the highway, just saying. Great job there, Delaware. But, yeah, PLEASE tell me if there's something else to take into account. And that goes for ALL of the states in this series, by the way. I can't claim to be an expert in any way here, so please call me on my bullshit if you feel that you have to. But, with that said, let's talk about what I do know: birds.

Red Knot (Calidris canutus)

For many of you, especially the bird-inclined amongst us, this was always going to be the obvious answer to this question. The Red Knot is an iconic Delaware bird for birdwatchers, as they're attracted to the state in MASSIVE numbers during migratory seasons. It's one of the most important and famous migrations in the country, and the flocks of Red Knots and other shorebirds are the main attraction. Why? Easy answer: the Atlantic Horseshoe Crab (Limulus polyphemus).

Delaware Bay is the site of the horseshoe crab's largest migration in the USA. This isn't the only place in the country they're found, but it's DEFINITELY the largest population of the species by a SIGHT. And speaking of iconic species, the horseshoe crab certainly fits the bill as a charismatic species of conservation concern. Which is why it may be curious that I'm highlighting the Red Knot, since they, y'know...EAT horseshoe crab eggs, alongside other birds in the great Atlantic seaboard migration. But that's actually why horseshoe crabs are so important.

Red Knots, amongst other shorebirds, depend on the horsehoe crabs for food, as these stopovers in Delaware Bay allow them to continue with their journey. Without the horseshoe crabs of Delaware, their life wouldn't be possible, and certainly not in the massive numbers found during migration. Understand, this is a threatened species, especially in the United States, that gathers in Delaware Bay in the thousands, with 2022 numbers being about 39,800 in a population. That's HUGE. The Red Knot is a symbol of this ecological boom, and both species should be celebrated. That's the reason the Red Knot is often given as the answer to this question of State Bird of Delaware, including by the Lab of Ornithology's article posted last year. Plus, it's got an iconic appearance, it's easy to find, and it tells a great story (which also includes a migratory distance of ~9,000 miles, which is crazy). Perfect, right?

...It doesn't breed in Delaware. It actually doesn't even breed in the United States. No, the Red Knot breeds in Nunavut and Greenland, above the limits of the Arctic Circle. I meant it when I said the Red Knot used Delaware as a stopover site. As such, it's an event when they arrive in Delaware twice a year...but they do leave. Pretty quickly, even. So, sure, the Red Knot is a great candidate for a number of reasons, but...is it OK if it doesn't actually breed in the state? I'd argue for it, since Delaware is is highest abundance of the species during migration in the country, and it's iconic in that way in particular. But I'll leave that as a question for you all to decide.

Let's go on to the next one, shall we?

Ring-billed Gull (Larus delawarensis)

OK, this one might be cheating a bit, since the bird in question is found basically...well, everywhere. It's definitely not native to Delaware alone, and doesn't even breed there. So why even include this bird in the running? Easy answer: it's in the name. It's the only bird species in the world with the state of Delaware in its scientific name. However, this is also cheating, since the name actually refers to the Delaware River, not the state itself. That's because the bird was first described and discovered along the river, which flows from New York, through New Jersey and Pennsylvania, until ending in Delaware and the Delaware Bay. And yeah...technically that was in New Jersey. BUT STILL! Only bird with Delaware in the name, just sayin'. And after all, if the Red Knot can be considered despite not breeding in the state, then...what about the Ring-billed Gull? Or...maybe I'll save this one for New Jersey.

American Kestrel (Falco sparverius)

OK, this one I'm actually a bit enthusiastic about, partially because I love raptors, and I especially love this raptor. The American Kestrel is a small falcon, and is in fact the smallest falcon (and raptor) in North America. About the size of a mourning dove, they're pint-sized predators, specializing on insects, rodents, lizards, and the occasional sparrow or songbird. They're also versatile, living all over the USA in various habitats. And that, of course, includes Delaware. This is a breeding species in the state, so it already has that above the other two previously discussed! And to top it all off...it's literally a small wonder. Come on, man! This is perfect! A scrappy falcon that's literally red, white, and grayish-blue!

But, OK, if it's common all over, why specifically Delaware? Because it's actually threatened in Delaware, fun fact. This is prominent enough to have inspired the Brandywine Zoo to work with the American Kestrel Partnership (part of The Peregrine Fund, who we'll discuss again on another day or five), and start the Delaware Kestrel Partnership, which monitors kestrel populations in the state. The species' population has decreased by 88% in Delaware and surrounding states in the last 50 years, which is...dramatic. It's a species that desperately needs saving and attention, and work in Delaware can be applied in the kestrel's entire range. Look, I beg you to check this out, because it's a fascinating set of projects. And honestly, this alone would have me include the American Kestrel on this list. Plus...that would also make this the first raptor to become a state bird.

Yeah. Take a look. NO raptors amongst the State Birds. Insane.

Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias)

Now, this one seems out of nowhere, but hear me out. For whatever reason, the Great Blue Heron (Ardea herodias) seems to be completely ignored as a state bird across the entire country, despite it being one of the MOST iconic birds in the United States. I mean, come on, almost all of us have seen a GBH at some point in our lives, especially if we live near water. But why suggest it for Delaware specifically, then? Well, the herons breed in Delaware, so that's checked off. They're found in the state year-round, making them easy to access and identify with. They're definitely iconic in appearance. They highlight the marshlands and wetlands of Delaware as an important ecosystem of concern. And...uh...

Look, I'll be straight with you. "Blue Heron" is the closest I could get to...another set of words associated with Delaware and birds. Because honestly, it's genuinely somewhat difficult to separate Delaware from those two words, and this would be a fairly minor change that would allow the use of that term with little fuss! And honestly, the Great Blue Heron isn't the worst choice in the world for Delaware, even if it admittedly barely breeds in the state compared to others. And...like...oh, goddammit, fine, let's get this over with.

Delaware Blue Hen (Gallus domesticus)

Delaware. Look at me. Why...in the blue HELL...did you choose a goddamn chicken as your state bird? I mean, for God's sake, it's not a wild bird, and even if it is a breed developed in the state, IT IS A CHICKEN! What possible reason could there be to choose this bird over all the other possible birds? And look, I like chickens as much as the next guy. Used to raise and keep them as a kid, so I do love them, but this just feels wrong. But OK, let's make the argument for them by looking at Delaware's original argument.

So, from basic cursory research, the Delaware Blue Hen dates back to the Revolutionary War. Apparently, one of the regiments of the American army raised fighting game chickens that were so well-known, the regiment itself became known as the "Blue Hens". It's also possible that the leader of this regiment, Jonathan Caldwell, had a special blue hen that had blue offspring, and the men in the regiment also took to calling themselves "Sons of the Blue Hen." Which means...shit. That means the Blue Hen actually has cultural relevancy specific to the state of Delaware. Damn, that's actually a good argument for their assignment. But with that said...there actually is a problem here.

The Delaware Blue Hen doesn't technically exist.

Yeah, this isn't actually a recognized breed of chicken, despite the INSANE amount of devotion Delawareans have for it. I mean, military regiments, sports teams, even the unofficial nickname for the state is named after the Blue Hen, and it's technically not a real chicken breed. Instead, they're actually American Game hens that are crossed with Andalusian Blue hens to get that iconic coloration, but they're not actually an isolated breed.

So...what does this mean? Because this is genuinely a problem, right? Delaware's state bird doesn't actually exist, AND it's a chicken. Well...I have a proposition for you, Delaware. Because I do recognize the fact that the Blue Hen seems to mean a lot to you, both now and historically. So, if that's the case, we need to recontextualize this guy in a couple of ways. So, here's my proposition...

Make the Delaware Blue Hen the State Game Bird.

Haven't brought this up yet, but some states have what's called a "state game bird" alongside the actual state bird. Game birds, by the classical and nonscientific definition, are members of the Galliformes and Anseriformes that are associated with hunting and food. And technically...the chicken counts. Yeah, Delaware easily could ratify the Delaware Blue Hen into service as the State Game Bird, which makes even more sense when you consider its role AS A SPORTS MASCOT! See what I mean? But that's not the end of it.

You'll also have to find some way to get the hen recognized as an independent breed. I have NO idea what the process is for that (I guess this is the pathway to do it?), but it's probably gonna take a bunch of breeders and number of years to turn this into a defined breed. Hell, as it stands, not every chicken hatched to a Blue Hen is even blue. So, hey, get on it, Delawarean chicken breeders! Make you state proud!

And that's the information on the candidates for the Delaware State Bird! Will the Delaware maintain its place? Will the Red Knot take it, despite the controversy surrounding the choice? Will my bullshit proposal for the Great Blue Heron actually resonate with some people? Up to Tumblr!

As for the next state, it's time to hop next door to Pennsylvania, and to a State Bird that also technically doesn't exist...for a somewhat different reason. And yes, for the record, I know the below GIF is technically the wrong species, BUT MY CHOICES IN GIFS ARE FEW

See you soon, and happy birding!

Introduction to the State Birds Initiative

1. Delaware - Poll | Results 2. Pennsylvania - Poll | Results 3. New Jersey - Poll | Results 4. Georgia - Poll | Results 5. Connecticut - Poll | Results 6. Massachusetts - Poll | Results

[mariacallous]

There are few circumstances under which inflation can be comforting. But in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election, one of them appears to be when it serves as an alibi for an electorate’s sharp turn toward meanness, selfishness, and a hard-edged type of identity-centered nationalism.

Many Americans have used inflation to explain away the country’s embrace of radical political change. Yet this ignores basic facts about the U.S. economy. Before the election, I wrote a column highlighting some of these remarkable statistics, noting that the country has recently far outpaced its G-7 peers in economic growth and brought unemployment down to nearly historic lows; that inflation, after briefly surpassing 9 percent in 2022, has plunged to 2.6 percent; and that gasoline prices, one of the most important pocketbook issues for Americans, are relatively low.

Even George F. Will, a dean of conservative columnists in Washington, indirectly laid bare the ridiculousness of this explanation. As he wrote this week, Trump “ran promising to increase living costs” due to the large tariffs he has vowed to impose on imports.

But to fully understand why the inflation explanation doesn’t add up, one must examine the broader nature of Trump’s program—specifically, its retrograde racial politics. After all, Trump was explicit about his policy priorities during the campaign, and the president-elect’s staffing moves and statements since Nov. 5 have reaffirmed his intentions.

Trump has quickly announced a prospective team of hard-liners to execute his priorities on the border and immigration. This includes Stephen Miller as his deputy chief of staff for policy; Tom Homan as his so-called border czar, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as the secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. By all indications, Trump will rely on this team to carry out a sweeping expulsion of millions of undocumented migrants.

Pulling off such a feat would disrupt the economy and everyday life on a scale with few comparisons in U.S. history. Trump’s zealous associates have pledged to carry out workplace raids and suggested deporting whole families to meet their goals. Given the small size of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, accomplishing deportations on this scale would probably require using the National Guard—including by dispatching units from Republican-led states to Democratic-governed ones, a move of dubious legality.

Trump has long devoted himself to laying the groundwork for this. Since his first presidential campaign, he has denounced Mexicans as “rapists,” alleged that countries such as Venezuela have emptied their prisons to inundate the United States with “criminals,” and amplified vile and baseless claims that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are preying on the community’s pets.

More overtones of white nationalism and nativism can be found in Trump’s infamous 2018 disparagement of what he called “shithole countries,” which in his definition are home to Black and brown people. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, a top Trump ally and now formal advisor to the president-elect, has called for women to have more babies—calls that conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, another prominent Trump backer, has echoed while also casting the issue in explicitly racial terms.

Hinting at a much broader anti-immigration agenda, Trump and his surrogates have also repeatedly inveighed against birthright citizenship, a provision of the U.S. Constitution. Trump’s efforts to call into question who “real” Americans are date back to 2011, when he started saying that he had “real doubts” about Barack Obama’s citizenship and demanded that the then-president produce his birth certificate. Couple this with Trump’s other comments suggesting a preference for immigrants from Nordic countries, and a sense of racial purpose running through many of his fondest projects begins to emerge.

This racial agenda also lurks in the Trump movement’s designs on remaking the country’s education system. In Florida and other states, Trump allies have launched a wholesale attack on books that are frank about the country’s history of slavery and its aftereffects as well as those that discuss gender and sexuality in anything but heteronormative ways.

Meanwhile, Trump couches his hostility toward diversity and inclusion initiatives in higher education as a way to protect the country’s white population from discrimination. In July, for instance, he said, “I will direct the Department of Justice to pursue federal civil rights cases against schools that continue to engage in racial discrimination. And schools that persist in explicit unlawful discrimination under the guise of equity will not only have their endowments taxed, but through budget reconciliation, I will advance a measure to have them fined up to the entire amount of their endowment. A portion of the seized funds will then be used as restitution for victims of these illegal and unjust policies—policies that hurt our country so badly.”

Trump’s nomination of Pete Hegseth as his secretary of defense appears to have been made in a similar spirit. Hegseth, a veteran Fox News host with no policy background, has made a name for himself attacking diversity efforts in the military, saying that Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the Black chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, should be fired for his support of “woke” programs. Trump’s transition team is reportedly considering creating a “warrior board” of retired military officials that, some analysts fear, would be able to purge military officers who are not loyal to Trump. If he is confirmed by the Senate, Hegseth could be essential to carrying out that board’s recommendations.

All of this fits with a pattern of stoking culture wars based largely on white resentment in the interest of sustaining political support. As historian David W. Blight wrote in an astute New York Times column, “Trump exploited our social fissures to make them deeper, uglier, ever more bitter and therefore useful. We were reminded that culture wars are won by fueling them, not by seeking harmony. Unity coalitions and kindness and joy don’t win elections in a bitterly divided society where neighbors and family members are not on the same team.”

As perceptive as Blight’s assessment is, it misses the important global dimensions of Trump’s strategy and appeal. By pledging to abandon international climate agreements at a time of dangerous levels of warming (which even the head of Exxon Mobil says is a mistake), by opposing wind power and vowing to “drill baby, drill,” by threatening to impose unilateral tariffs on other countries as a core economic strategy, by pretending that the United States can prevail through tough guy optics and bluster, Trump is engaging in an elaborate fantasy that is both pedigreed and dangerous.

It is an approach to politics that is based on nostalgia for a time when, as the historian Greg Grandin has written, the world seemed for many Americans to be an open frontier—that period in the 19th and 20th centuries when it was permissible to pretend that “America” essentially meant “white,” and that with sufficient will, Washington could bend the rest of the globe to its whims.

There were elements of this ethos in past administrations—notably, in the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—but even those leaders knew that going it alone and humiliating allies was not smart, and that appeals to racial identity carried political dangers. Trump, however, fully taps into chagrin over the loss of that unquestioned privilege.

What is more, Trump’s brand of voluntarism—his vision of a United States that can say no to whatever displeases it—arrives at a time of relative decline in Washington’s standing in the world compared with its principal rival, China, and even with a larger set of rising middle powers. The United States is about to learn that in order to succeed, it will need strong cooperation with others and more internal harmony of its own. Four years on the path that Trump is setting could be an expensive learning process for the entire nation.

[keikakudom]

RR!AU Why Vox Sponsors the Resort

Something I was gently afraid of when I posted my Reverse/Reset Resort AU was the whole thing coming off as a fix-it/Vox apologist AU... which I won't deny, one of the motivations was to explore how he would be viewed when presented as a "heroic"/good guy pedastal in the narritive. Similar to canon Alastor-- he's morally grey, we don't know exactly what he wants, and is an otherwise "bad guy" on the side of the hero for now. That said! I do deeply adore Vox's mean, cold, evil side.

His "business motivation" for sponsoring Charlie in this AU can be easily written off as a tsundere farce for wanting to be redeemed, but when he contracted with Lucifer, he most definitely, verbatim, used the words "business" and "hotel/resort".

Because that's exactly how Vox sees it. He's a business shark and always wants to be at the top in terms of power-- so yes, he had to give some stuff up(the Vees had to dissolve publically, soul insurance), but what's business without a bit of risk taking? And hey, he got the jump on this opportunity...because you know what sounds like power?

Deciding who gets to enter the pearly gates or not.

So, I do think one faucet here plays on the rumor that when Vox was a human he was a cult leader. It really feels like a God thing to be able to control who gets redeemed or not. So yes, he sold his soul to Lucifer to help Charlie with her hotel/resort. Not her DREAM. Vox is helping her to redeem Sinners, but he never specified to do it philanthropically/like a charity.

He isn't treating redemption as anything more than a product: Sinners are just consumers, statistics and numbers, and all the more proven because there's evidence that ascending/desending between Hell/Heaven is possible(even though the latter hasnt been concretely proven yet, it's enough for him to do business with).

I'm sure Charlie in this AU is wary of Vox, but she doesn't understand or know the full extent of what he's planning. She doesn't have that shark mind to jump straight to the end point and what rewards are to be reaped.

Also, in light of mentioning them: The Vees are important in this AU! They might not be the polycule powerhouse /j as we know in canon, but they are too good of a dynamic to ignore! And they're next on my list to design after I finish Alastor and Vaggie.

[vicholas]

i can't remember which page exactly but before october 7 one of wikipedia's pages on israel-palestine conflict had a section continually stressing how many Poor Israelis have died but another page linked in that same section showed statistics clearly displaying the far higher rates of death for palestinians. been wary of wikipedia's handling of this topic since

It's pretty bad, I only learned today that their official policy is to use the term "Israel-Hamas war" :|

It's extremely easy to exploit Wikipedia's guidelines regarding sources and 'neutrality' to endorse fascist bias. Wikipedia's bureaucratic system just makes it harder to fight against that because they make it harder to change that status quo when the biased version is considered the neutral one.

This person in that one discussion page put it well:

How do you take a stance in neutrality when you're convering a conflict in a world of biased journalism? What is the use of having a list of "reliable sources" for Wikipedia if those sources are unreliable in a specific topic? Wikipedia admins are too spineless to take strong stances in things like these, regardless of importance or consequences. That's how you get the right wing taking advantage of that.

Even a decision as simple as "The BBC is a reliable source when it comes to X topics but when it comes to Y it should be analyzed how it handles the topic, rather than taken as gospel just because it's the BBC" is too complicated and how their policy of reliable sources works. The BBC either is entirely reliable in everything or it is not.

It's particularly irritating seeing people in the discussion page saying stuff like "we can't call it massacre because we have to wait first for media to agree on how to call it". You can't preach about being all about neutrality and they say that you aren't allowed to call a person killing another 'a murder' unless the news explicitly used the word murder.

But that's not the Wikipedia way of seeing "neutrality". The Wikipedia definition of neutrality is this:

And it's worse because Wikipedia's influence in the world means that whatever they call the page has a strong chance of increasing the usage of the name of their choice. But somehow I feel like Wikipedia admins have no conscience on how much they affect bias.

So of course people who want the article to be named 'incident' instead of 'massacre' insist on keeping the 'incident' title "just for now" and wait to see what terms ends up more commonly used. Because of course the term that Wikipedia uses will bring more search results over time.

They know it and they exploit Wikipedia's system of bureaucracy by making the title changing discussions go on forever so it keeps making this the common term.

Sorry if I sound insane I need people to understand how frustrating the inner workings of Wikipedia are and how people exploit the flaws in the system for their own gains and Wikipedia admins are too incompetent to even admit this is a problem.

A lot of us who grew up with the internet didn't even get to know physical encyclopedias and thus the Wikipedia model has been kinda internalized as the only way to handle encyclopedic knowledge, but god this isnt normal. A historian has to take stances towards biased sources and analyze them in order to reach conclusions rather than relying on a list of "trusted" secondary sources as gospel truth. An encyclopedia writer should be no different! The whole model is wrong.

[literaryvein-reblogs]

How would you go about writing someone with mental issues? Conditions like schizofrenia?

There is a lot of awful takes that essentially end up being caricatures while actual people wity the condition are often quite chill. It's difficult to do them justice while also not being able to fully understand how it is

Writing about Mental Health Conditions

Questions to Ask When Reporting on Mental Health

Is mental illness relevant to this story? If not, there is no need to mention it.

What is your source? Don’t rely on hearsay to report that a person has a mental illness. If you are reporting on a specific condition, make sure you are talking to a mental health professional to provide the facts. Mental health organisations like the APA can connect you with experts to discuss a wide range of mental health and substance use disorders, as well as the medications and techniques used to treat them.

What is the most accurate language to use? See below for advice about language that is specific and avoids derogatory terms.

Choose Your Words Carefully

The words you use to write about mental health are very important, and can help reduce stigma around mental illness if carefully chosen.

ONE. Focus on the person, not the condition. The basic concept is that the mental health condition (or physical or other condition) is only one aspect of a person’s life, not the defining characteristic.

Preferred: She is a person with schizophrenia.

Not preferred: She is schizophrenic.

TWO. Be specific. Mental illness is a general condition. Specific disorders are types of mental illness and should be used whenever possible (see below for a brief list and definitions of common disorders).

Preferred: He was diagnosed with bipolar disorder

Not preferred: He was mentally ill

THREE. Avoid derogatory language. Terms such as psycho, crazy and junkie should not be used. In addition, avoid words like “suffering” or “victim” when discussing those who have mental health challenges.

Preferred: She has a mental health illness. She has a substance use disorder.

Not preferred: She suffers from mental illness. She’s a drug abuser.

Common Mental Health Terms

The following are definitions of some of the most common mental health disorders. For more complete descriptions, consult Understanding Mental Disorders: Your Guide to DSM-5 or the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.

Addiction - a chronic brain disease that causes compulsive substance use despite harmful consequences.

Alcohol and Substance Use Disorders - the overuse of alcohol or drugs leading to effects that are detrimental to the individual’s physical and mental health, or the welfare of others.

Autism Spectrum Disorders - a range of complex developmental disorders that can cause problems with thinking, feeling, language and the ability to relate to others.

Bipolar Disorder - (also commonly known as manic depression) is a brain disorder that causes shifts in a person’s mood, energy and ability to function.

Depression - a common and serious medical illness that causes feelings of sadness and/or a loss of interest in activities once enjoyed; it can lead to a variety of emotional and physical problems.

Eating Disorders - illnesses in which people experience severe disturbances in their eating behaviors and related thoughts and emotions; anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder are the three main types.

Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) - an anxiety disorder in which people have recurring, unwanted thoughts, ideas or sensations (obsessions) that make them feel driven to do something repetitively (compulsions).

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) - a psychiatric disorder that can occur in people who have experienced or witnessed a traumatic event such as a natural disaster, a serious accident, a terrorist act, war/combat, rape or other violent personal assault.

Schizophrenia - a chronic brain disorder with symptoms that can include delusions, hallucinations, trouble with thinking and concentration, and lack of motivation.

Facts about Mental Illness

Misconceptions and myths about mental health are unfortunately common. The following are a few facts about mental illness in the United States, as well as key resources for the latest statistics on mental health:

In any given year, more than 1 in 5 adults in the U.S. has a diagnosable mental disorder.

One in 20 adults has a serious mental illness.

One in 6 adults has a substance use disorder (including alcohol use disorder).

Half of all chronic mental illness begins by age 14.

Suicide is the 11th leading cause of death for all ages and the second leading for people ages 10 to 34. It is more common than homicide.

Most people with mental illnesses are no more likely to be violent than those without a mental health disorder. In fact, people with a mental health disorder are at significantly higher risk of becoming victims of violence compared to the general population

Excerpted from The Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH):

Write often about mental health challenges—the greater awareness generated about mental health, the more chance there is of helping people who have problems associated with these illnesses.

Let us know if you are looking for story ideas—we have lots of them and would be more than happy to share these ideas with you (you can find their contact details here).

We are asking for your help in reducing the stigma around mental illness including addiction because stigma is a huge problem for people living with mental illness.

We can accomplish this by dispelling some of the negative stereotypes that follow people who have mental illness such as: people with mental illness including addictions are all potentially violent and dangerous; are somehow responsible for their condition; and have nothing positive to contribute.

Labels matter. Don’t describe a person with a substance use disorder as a “heroin addict,” “drug user,” or “alcoholic.” Defining a person by their disorder makes the disorder become that person’s “master status”—the reader or viewer will only see the person as defined by the illness not by who they really are as an individual.

Help reduce stigma by not leaving the person out when describing an individual. When a person is called a schizophrenic, the reader will only see the disorder and conjure up mental images that are likely negative and stereotypical. The same can be said for a person who is called a “manic-depressive or a "depressed person.” Chances are they could be receiving treatment for these symptoms and are in fact not feeling depressed at all.

Exploring Mental Health in Fiction

As fiction writers, we take normal, everyday conflict and crank it up to a 10 to make our stories compelling.

In a mental health focused novel, it’s the absence of and quest for mental health that’s the meat of the story, the source of the conflict at its heart.

What drives the plot is not what happens in the story, but the interplay between external factors and the hero’s response to them.

There are dos and don’ts to writing about neurodivergence or mental illness that will make your characters and their struggles ring true—not flat and stereotypical.

Origin of Your Character’s Mental Health Issue. This can be rich in terms of your story creation. Even if you only hint at it in the narrative, as an author, you need to understand the root cause of your character’s struggle before you decide what the manifestation will be. Family quirks, trauma, relocation, immigration—all of these can impact mental health.

Your Own Past and Life and Family. The old write-what-you-know adage can prove fertile ground for character development.

Understand the Role Mental Health Will Play in Your Story. Is the story about mental illness? Based on something very familiar that you know well? Is the book set in a psychiatric hospital? Is the condition a side issue, a challenge that makes your protagonist’s life a little more complicated?

Be Accurate and Avoid Stereotypes. If you are not writing something autobiographical, drawing on your own personal experiences, make sure to do your research. Interview people, read articles by and about those with the psychological challenges you intend to feature. Make sure to keep it three-dimensional, even if your book is about being mentally ill. No one is just depressed or just anxious. No character is the sum of their quirks and ticks. Make sure any character with a mental health issue is well-rounded and interesting in other ways.

Don’t Be Afraid to Lean Into the Humor. Par for the course with mental health issues are misadventures, foibles, and overcorrects that can end in comically disastrous results. As long as readers can laugh with rather than at the mix-ups, it’s all good. In fact, if everything we wrote about mental health were tragic, if everything we wrote about trauma were traumatic, the work would be pretty hard to stick with as a reader or as a writer. Whatever story structure you employ—classic three-act, spiral, or what have you—a well-drawn main character is essential. The interplay between the self (Passenger B for example), her circumstances (air turbulence), and others in her life (the frightened son and the maddeningly calm Passenger A) creates conflict, obstacles to resolution. Your hero’s place on the mental health continuum gives her texture and relatability. Her mess-ups, embarrassments, and misunderstandings are what resonate for readers and make your work thrilling, agonizing, and yes—satisfyingly fun!

Characters with Mental Illness. The megalomaniacal CEO. The sociopathic killer. The suicidal teen. The anxious woman self-medicating with booze and pills while caring for her demented mother. As writers, we invite these characters into our stories because they are true-to-life and because their psychological problems invite curiosity and compassion.

To avoid stereotyping and caricature—and to keep your story believable—try these 5 strategies and tips:

Make the character relatable. Although common, mental illness is not the norm, so characters with such disorders, especially psychoses, are imbued with “otherness.” The writer must provide a way for the reader to relate to the character despite the illness and because of it. 

Keep the narrative front and center. Stories work best when they are spun around a person and a set of relationships, not an illness. Even “issues books” are successful only when the story focuses on what happens to a particular cast of characters. Mental illness can be debilitating and all-consuming, but it does not define a person. That job still rests with the writer.

Balance internal and overt symptoms and behavior. The internal world of a mentally ill person is fascinating but can readily overwhelm the reader. It doesn’t take pages of suicidal ideation, obsessive thoughts or internal word salad to deliver the message of an altered mental state. Go easy on the subjective "craziness" and opt instead to show how others are reacting (or not) to what is going on inside the ill person’s head. Also, not all mentally ill people have insight; they don’t necessarily know that their behavior and thoughts are abnormal. Obviously, if the person doesn’t realize they are ill, or if they become confused about it, then they might be an unreliable narrator. This can be a powerful tool but it is important to know upfront what relationship your character has with his or her illness, how that affects the interplay of external and internal worlds and the access others have to the character’s problems. It can be as complicated as you wish, but don’t leave the reader behind.

Specify the disorder, at least in your head. Generalized “craziness” does not exist. A mental illness can elude diagnosis, or have a complicated diagnosis, but as a writer, you should try to pinpoint the disorder, even if your character is never properly diagnosed. Why? Disorders are defined by specific behaviors and cognitive flaws, so the more you narrow down the diagnosis, the more you know about how your character might behave, feel and think. For example, mania is evidenced in several disorders, including bipolar disorder, drug-related disorders, and some sub-types of schizophrenia. Knowing the underlying problem has ramifications for your character’s other behavior, their prognosis, treatment, and whether the problem might have a genetic component.

Get the details right. For instance, relief via medication, if it comes, can begin after 2 weeks but the maximum effect can take 8 weeks. Details like this matter not just because they satisfy knowledgeable readers but also because spreading misinformation about mental illness does everyone a disservice. Mental health is a rapidly changing field, so ensure your information is correct for your time period. Terminology, diagnosis, treatment options, and prognosis can be vastly different from one decade to the next.

Fortunately, there are resources at your disposal:

Consult the relevant version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM), the official guide to mental disorders. The American Psychological Association updates it periodically, so use the one corresponding to your setting.

The National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI) is also an excellent resource;

Seek out mental health professionals and those who have first-hand experience with the disorder (patients and/or loved ones) to lend authentic details;

Visit online forums, but be discreet, respectful, and appropriately cautious.

As with all research, don’t rely on a single source.

The credibility of your story is worth the extra time it takes to gain a deeper understanding of your mentally ill characters.

Knowledge, profound knowledge, engenders respect and compassion, two traits we all could use more of, both as writers and as people.

Writing about Your Own Mental Health

Writing about mental health is one thing, but making yourself vulnerable and disclosing your own illness, especially a serious one, is another.

First-hand accounts, though, are essential in making this national discourse authentic and true to life.

Writing to explain your experience to someone else can help you understand it better as well, leading to additional closure.

Writing fosters personal sense-making, especially when you learn how to reframe your experience more positively.

Exploring meaning in your traumatic experience through writing can mark a turning point in your recovery.

Your increased awareness and articulation of feelings and thoughts can be beneficial to others who may be going through a similar experience.

Sources: 1 2 3 4 5 ⚜ More: Notes & References ⚜ Writing Resources PDFs

Thanks for the question. This is important to write about. All the best with your writing!

[communicationthroughlyrics]

Our Fire When We're Together, Mixed With Paranoid Manners

You were able to break free, and finally start your dream. But will the one who matters most make it to the most important night of your life to date? Will she see you the same way?

A/N: Not sure how I feel about this one. Just kind of meh. Let me know what you think. Not proofread.

TW: Mentions of suicide, Anxiety, angst, and fluff. Not smut in this one, sorry :]

You sat on the closed lid to the toilet in your bathroom, stripped down to all but your underwear. Today was a huge day for you. To say you were stressed, was a colossal understatement. You had to get yourself ready for arguably one of the largest days of your life- next to marriage, and you had to do it without your best friend, whom had swore to you that they would be there for when this moment had happened. But of course, in typical fashion your life had decided to throw a massive monkey wrench into that plan, and shit had literally hit the fan while she was out of the country for work. Admittedly, you were proud of how you had handled this up to now, because going through a divorce while starting your dream business was no easy feat. Of course, your best friend, Lizzie, assured you that she was just a phone call away- but that was nothing compared to the calming presence she had when she was around you. You, in your ever so stubborn fashion, had opted to handle all of this yourself, not wanting to bother your best friend for fear of coming across as selfish. Part of you knew that her current fling wouldn’t appreciate you calling constantly, as they were not a fan of how close you and Liz were. 

There had always been a tension between you two- you both attended NYU, which is where you had met the blonde, while she was going to school to pursue her budding acting career- you were going to get a business degree after attending a technical school to open your dream automotive shop, building the cars of peoples dreams. There had been an ‘after mid-term’ party that one of your friends had dragged you to, you had wanted to stay in and relax after the strenuous study schedule you had been on. Your friend had convinced you that one night out wouldn’t be the end of you. That is where you met a green eyed, blonde standing by the bar in the corner of the room, chatting up the ‘bartender’ as you had approached. You instantly recognized her from one of your statistics gen-ed classes, and you both picked up small talk, before walking to a quieter corner of the room. You talked all night, before exchanging numbers and continuing your conversations over the span of the remaining semester. You were amazed at how she always came to you with the most doe eyed, expectant expressions on her face, she was never sad to be around you, and vice versa. You both soon realized that you were each others calm, and could talk to each other with no expectations, no judgement, and a mutual respect that made everyone around you envious. Many of your friends became jealous of how easily she fit into your life. But you shrugged it off. You enjoyed her company. Only one of your fiends knew how you really felt- your best guy friend, Jason. He knew that your feelings were a little bit deeper than ‘best friends’, that you really wanted to be with Liz, but he respected that you didn’t want to ruin your friendship over feelings you were certain weren’t reciprocated. 

As time went on, you both grew insanely close, and one fateful night you have both been at a party celebrating graduation, and you both were more than intoxicated. You were most definitely the more shy of the two, but given a healthy dose of liquid courage you were known to be a totally different person. You both had woken up in your apartment, sharing the bed naked. You both agreed at that moment that nothing had happened, but deep down, you knew that it wasn’t a ‘nothing’  kind of thing that had happened. But, against your better judgement, you told yourself to push your feelings down, ignore what had happened that night, and continue the relationship as it was. You watched her date guy after guy, further convincing yourself that she will never see you as more than a friend. You began drinking a little bit more, blaming your college years on building your tolerance and not knowing what to do with your new found time after graduating. Liz had moved back to California, jumping right into the acting business, and having her career pick up almost immediately. You were happy for her, you were. You just wished that she could also be happy with you. In the time that you had gotten to know her, she had introduced you to her family. They were hesitant to let you in at first, but knowing how the media had treated her family, particularly the twins, it was understandable. 

Over time, you had won over her family, and they accepted you as one of their own. Now that Liz was all over, you often spent time with Mary Kate or Ashley while you were in New York. They could see right through the facade you put on whenever the younger Olsen was around, and knew about your feelings towards her. Every breakup, they would encourage you to say something- you would refuse, not wanting to be a rebound, wanting her to feel better first, and not wanting to jeopardize the relationship you had built. Inevitably, she would find someone almost immediately after, dispelling the “rebound recovery” theory right away, but you continued to support her as time went on. 

What you had no idea of, however, was the late night conversations the blonde had with her older sisters, asking them why you didn’t like her the way she wanted, and why you had never capitalized on her failed relationships, swooping in the way she wanted you to, and finally asking you to be together. The day you started to date your now ex-wife, the scowl on her face was priceless. You made fun of her so much, mocking how jealous she was, without really truly realizing how she was, in fact, jealous. When you told her that you were getting married, she told you that it was a bad idea, but wouldn’t stop you. Everyone told you that it was a bad idea, but you ignored the warnings for the sheer desire and contentment you had to have someone, for once, to wake up to in the morning. You never once told your wife about your feelings for Liz, you didn’t dare to. You knew that would be the end of your friendship, and that would defeat the purpose of not saying anything. But- your subconscious had better ideas. Allegedly, your wife had found the diary you had written all your feelings in, the diary your therapist had advised you to start, and in that diary were your admitted feelings for your best friend, written in your hand, in blue and black ink. That coupled with you moaning her name in your sleep for a week straight, led to a confrontation about your feelings for the blonde. 

When she gave you the inevitable ultimatum, “It’s me or her,” you chose her, not your wife- arguing that it was a 10 year friendship that can’t just be tossed aside for some ‘teenage feelings’. That’s what has led you to this point. Sitting on your toilet in your single bedroom apartment, thinking over the last year. Lizzie only knows of what you told her- that you were getting a divorce because Lauren, the other blonde in your life, your ex-wife, had been downplaying your dream to start a custom car building shop, and told you to pick a more “conventional” career. It wasn’t wrong- your wife hated the career path you had chosen. The times you would come home covered in car filth, grease, and smelling like paint thinner were too much for her. Despite it being your true passion, she never really supported it. The first time you had built a car out of a friends garage, and entered it into a prestigious regional car show, she didn’t even go with you to showcase the build. But Lizzie did. She was so proud of the moment you won Best in Show, and took you out celebrating afterwards. 

After winning that show, you began receiving more and more requests for builds. This warranted you finally opening your dream shop. Liz and her family were proud of the progress you had made, and even helped you front the cost of a tiny shop in a small town upstate, giving you the space you needed to create your dream cars. Today, you received the finalization paperwork for your divorce from the greedy she-devil, as she was now called amongst your friends and family. She made sure to take everything she could from you in an act of spite- causing you to loose the small garage upstate, along with all the equipment, just so you could afford to find a place to put a roof over your head. You were also opening a new, larger shop. You had been working 2 jobs and saving all the money you could to pay for all the equipment and the space you needed, and today is the day you were supposed to open it to the world, with the unveiling of your latest build. 

“Y/N/N, you know I will always be there. When your new shop opens, I swear I will be there for you. That was your dream, that’s what you went to school for. I remember the nights we would sit and bullshit, and we would talk about our dreams. You have been nothing but amazing, and supportive of me living mine- it’s only right for me to do the same.” Lizzie rubbed your shoulder, reassuring you before she flew out for Hong Kong for filming. 

In all your talks in college, she had never really alluded to a dream car, necessarily. But she always referred to a car that had been in her family, that an uncle had sold, despite the family not wanting the car to leave the family. You had searched, and found such a car like she described, but it had been in rough condition. Knowing there was no way keep it original, you found a way to combine the car for what it was for the family, into something that Lizzie would drive. Or so you hoped. You converted the car to a hybrid electric system, as the engine had been completely seized form years of sitting. No one knew of what you built, but you invited the whole family to the opening, with the intention of unveiling this car to them, and giving it to Liz. But now, she can’t be there. 

“Lizzieeeeeeeee, you said you would be there for me. I can’t do this without you!” You groaned at the computer screen, currently on a video call with your best friend. You slammed your head to the table next to the computer, shaking the screen, and making the blonde laugh in response. 

“I know, hun. I have literally tried everything short of saying my entire family died to be able to take a small break to fly back. They are adamant on me doing these reshoots now, they can’t wait.” You groaned again, leaning back in the chair and letting your head fall completely backwards. You were honestly having a teenage tantrum. 

“Fine, Liz. You’re lucky I love you. But you owe me.” You fire back, ignoring the pang in your heart, and the desire to tell her you really, truly love her. 

“I know, Y/N. I love you, and I am so sorry I can’t be there for you this time. I hope I can make it up to you.”

You started the shower, finally willing yourself to get cleaned up and ready for the night. You had been at the shop, putting the finishing touches on the surprise for the night, ensuring that it was perfect. Once you were satisfied that you were clean enough, and had washed away enough tension to continue, you stepped out of your small shower, staring yourself down in the mirror. You were a ragged version of yourself, the stress of the divorce and the shop closing and reopening taking its toll. The video calls with Liz were few and far between, and you always sat in a darker room, so she wouldn’t worry about your now slim frame. You had honestly just quit drinking, and began working out, so you were now extremely toned in comparison to a year ago, but you were also a shocking 70 lbs. lighter, and you looked like a zombie due to the lack of sleep. The twins gave you a full ration of shit, telling you that they needed to make up for the younger sibling not being here to do it herself. If Lizzie saw you, you’re not sure what she would say. She had commented that your face looked weird, but hadn’t seen you entirely to know the extent of the last years dramatics and their toll on you. 

Dressing yourself in a tight fitting black button up Dickies shirt, rolling up the sleeves for your now tattooed arms to show, and a pair of dark blue jeans, ruffling your hair and applying your choice cologne, you deemed yourself as ready as you could be for the night. You made sure to pick a place where you didn’t live far from the shop, so you could easily walk to work. Tonight, however, you decided to slip on your helmet and ride the motorcycle everyone chastised you for. Wedging your aviator sunglasses in between your helmet and their respective position on your ears, you fired the bike up, and took off down the street. You bobbed in and out of the traffic that was present, pulling into the large warehouse parking lot, noticing that a few people had already shown up to help set up. 

You pulled the motorbike around back, and set the helmet on your handle bars, tousling your hair in the mirror of the bike, before using your keycard to walk into the back door of the shop. You don’t know how you had been so lucky, but the demand from your first car show has left you with an almost full shop of projects, not shortage of work in the foreseeable future. You were beyond grateful, but wished your best friend was here to see this. You see some tables set up at the far end of the shop, and a little soapbox type stage, you had requested this be built into the shop because you wanted an excuse to play music on random occasions and didn’t want the hassle of dealing with a bar. You were glad you had decided to cover the gift car, since the twins were both running around, setting up the food and drinks they had brought with them. 

“Y/N!” Ashley had now noticed your arrival, running over and jumping onto you, hugging you tightly. “I am so damn proud of you. This place is amazing, even though it is…nerdy.” She scrunched her face, she never understood the passion you held in cars, but never held it against you.

“Thanks, Ash. I can’t believe this is really happening.” You respond, kicking your feet on the concrete floor, looking down at your feet. 

“Oh, you best believe it, Y/N/N. We’re so proud of you, hun.” Your moms voice came from behind you, and you quickly turned on your heel, hugging her tightly. 

“Thanks, ma. I love you.” You whisper, before letting her go to mill around and see the projects you have to work on. Guests slowly started to filter in, some of the owners of the cars now being housed in your garage coming up and congratulating you, and inspecting different aspects of the shop, curiosity overtaking them to see where their dream cars will be built. The dull thrum of music came through the shops speakers, and you made sure to thank everyone that came through the door for coming by. You held out a glimmer of hope that one particular blonde would show up, albeit fashionably late, but she never did.

“I see you keep watching the door, Y/N.” MK bumped your arm, as you were staring out from the loft above the shop, observing the 100 or so people below milling around, talking animatedly about their projects. Your dull expression on a night that should be one of your happiest, she frowned at the lack of excitement on your face. 

“I miss her, MK. I wish she was here with us. It’s been almost a year.” You responded, swirling the drink in your hand, allowing your gaze to get lost in the swirl of amber alcohol within it. This was the first taste of any alcohol you had in months, so you decided to treat yourself.

“I know, we all do. But I know that this has been rough not having her here through everything you’ve been through the last year.” Her hand came to rest on your shoulder, gently rubbing it, calming you slightly. 

“Yeah, it’s been challenging, to say the least.”

“Y/N?” MK asked, turning her back to walk to one of the leather arm chairs in your new office. She straddled the arm, sitting on it and staring right through you. 

“Hmm?” You turned around, setting the glass on the railing as you gripped the railing behind you, leaning against it.

“Tell her. When you see her next. Put yourself out of the misery, and tell her how you feel.” Your eyes widened at her request, rather- demand. 

“I can’t, MK. You know that. She’s never going to see me the way I see her, and I can’t loose her as a friend.” She nodded, looking down at her ring clad hands that are resting in her lap. 

“Y/N. I can’t tell you how she will react, but I promise you, that you mean too much to her for her to let you go. You won’t loose her, Y/N. But you’ve got to tell her. You’ve been given a second chance here. Take it.” With that, she stood, grabbing the glass of club soda next to her, and walking back downstairs. You stalked over to your desk, sitting yourself down in your chair, and spinning around to the wall of photos behind your desk.

You found yourself getting lost in the stories behind each snapshot on the wall, replaying the visions that came with them. You weren’t sure how long you had been there, reliving the memories on the wall behind your desk, but a gentle hand on your shoulder quickly brought you out of your trance, making you jump slightly. 

“Shouldn’t you be enjoying everyones company, Y/N? I believe they call it, ‘business networking?’ ” A familiar tone came from behind you, and you flew out of your chair, throwing yourself in the direction of the voice you had craved to hear all night. 

“You said you couldn’t come tonight. I thought you were still in Hong Kong.” You whispered into her neck, not letting her go for fear she would suddenly disappear. “I missed you, Lizzie.”

“I missed you more, Y/N. I promised I wouldn’t miss this. But I wanted to surprise you.” She smiled as you pulled away finally baring yourself to your best friend, who had been absent from your present life for the last year. She was dressed in a simple black tee, blue jeans and sneakers- but to you, the simplest of outfits on her made her look stunning. She gave you a once over, frowning at your current state. “My god, Y/N, you don’t look well. You’re skin and bone compared to when I saw you last.”

“Uhm, yeah, but I’m ok.. I lost 70 lbs. Between the stress of the divorce, and building this place, handling all the upcoming work, and building the project down there, I haven’t really been myself, Liz. Especially not without my bestie around.” You showed her a small smile, nudging her arm. She frowned slightly at your admission, shaking her head. “The only thing that kept me going was… that project.” You hesitated, wanting to disclose that the true reason you kept going was her. 

“Y/N, you have to take care of yourself.” She stepped closer to you again, grabbing your arm, rubbing it up and down, calming you instantly. Her viridescent eyes looked straight into yours, and you honestly found yourself getting lost in the seas before you. “Am I going to have to tote you around with me, take you everywhere I go so I can make sure you’re ok?” She laughed, lightly slapping your arm.

“Actually…” you smirk, laughing as her jaw drops and she hits you harder on the arm. 

“Ass!” She laughs, grabbing you arm and pulling you back in for a hug. 

“Well, Liz…you’re just in time for me to go down and show everyone my extra special secret project.”

Her eyebrow raised, and you swore that you could’ve died just then. “Extra special secret project? Are you 12?” She chuckled, shaking her head. 

“Wha? No!!” You looked at her, incredulous that she would say that to you. Her face dropped at your panic, and you smiled her way, earning an eye roll from her. “Its special because of who it reminds me of, and who it’s for.”

“You built it for someone?!” Now it was her turn to look dumbfounded. “Who? Is it a secret client?” She emphasized the secret part, jumping up and down while clapping her hands together. She looked over the half wall to the crowd milling below. “It’s them, it’s totally them. I know it.” She pointed at someone in the people on the lower level. You laughed, approaching her and sliding your hand over her lower back, leaning against the wall and observing everyone happily chatting and enjoying the food and drink. 

“I can assure you, it isn’t them. But to say that this person is my first client would be true. I’ve wanted to build this for them for a while now. For all that they did for me.” She turned in to look at you, and you watched the glint in her eyes. You swore that you saw something in her eyes, as she opened her mouth like she was going to say something. She quickly shut her mouth, and looked back to the group of people beneath you. You grabbed her hand, pulling her towards the stairs. You led her down the stairs, your hands still linked. When the twins caught sight of this, they both smirked your way, but you shook your head. The frown that overtook MK’s face was deep, as she set her face in a deep scowl. You mouthed “not now,” getting her to relax slightly before you pushed their younger sister over to them. 

Approaching the small stage in the corner of the room, the roar in the room started to soften as the occupants noticed you approaching the microphone stand. 

“Good Evening everyone,” you remove the mic from the stand, pushing the stand out of your personal bubble. There is a muffled response from everyone who has now turned to face you. Your eyes scanned the room, finding that the people who meant the most were all in a row together, at the back of the crowd. Lizzie was sandwiched in between her sisters, with Dave and Jarnie standing behind the twins. Your mom was next, with your dad standing with his arm around her shoulder. Some of your friends from college, from technical school and beyond. “I want to thank everyone for coming out here tonight, some of you came from out of state, and it means a lot to me that you could make it.” You lock your eyes on Lizzie, sending her a wink abhor moving on, walking around the small stage. 

“This has been a long time coming, opening up a dream business that I have been passionate about since I was young. Building cars has been a passion of mine since elementary school. I hope that this passion continues to show in the work that is driven out of those doors.” You motion, pointing at the garage doors by the unveiling area you had designed in the shop. You continue to dive into the passion and the reasoning behind this decision to open a shop like this, as well as thanking the people who helped to get you to where you are now. “Now, as you can see, there are plenty of cars in here to occupy my time for a while, and I am sure in everyones chatting tonight that you all have realized that the majority of the owners of these cars are here tonight…” you gesture out to the racks of cars that were in various stages of being worked on. “… and I would like to thank each and every owner for trusting me with these projects, and having the faith in me to put their dreams forth and turn these cars into a reality.” You walked down off the stage, as everyone claps. 

“Now, the project that has been occupying my time of late, the vehicle that will christen this shop as the first vehicle to leave that rollup door, is a special vehicle to someone who has proved to be very important to me, and whose family has welcomed me as one of their own.” You look up, noticing the reaction of the family you were speaking of. “You may be asking, Y/N, what about your parents? They’re here too. Well, the answer is simple. Ive built those cars in thanks already. Those cars are the reason I have a client base now.” You gesture towards the trio of cars that were built for your parents. “This car, is for my ‘adopted’ family. I found out about this car, in my multiple late night discussions with that young lady, over there.” You point in Lizzies direction, and the rooms attention shifts towards the Olsen family. “This woman has become one of my absolute best friends, after meeting her in business school at NYU. For the last ten years, she has been with me through absolutely everything.” She blushed and scrunched her nose, as you waved her up to you. 

“This is the car I saw in so many family photos, and heard stories of driving around with their grandpa and dad before it needed to be sold. It reminds me so much of the story of that vehicle over there, and how I felt when it disappeared outside of the family.” You pointed at the same 1955 Chevy that was your grandfathers, that was sold and broke your family’s collective heart. When you were able to track down the same vehicle, you fixed it, and surprised your parents by driving up to their house in it. Your mom was in tears, it was her fathers car, his baby from the time he bought it when she was in middle school. The significance of it, being that is was the same year her oldest sibling was born. Your grandfathers first child. SO when it left the family, it was truly heartbreaking. 

“Loosing that 55 was difficult on the family, because it becomes a family member. So saying that I understood how hard it was for this family to loose a family member, is an understatement.” You walk over to the vehicle, inviting the rest of the Olsens up to stand behind it. “None of them knew about this build, till now.” You turn and smile, taking in the shocked faces of the family, noticing the mixed emotions of what may lay below the satin sheet. “Now, I did take some liberty here, and designed it for a changing world. I designed it knowing the things that are important to the person I wanted to gift this to.” You smile, looking over at the blonde beside you. The look on her face was one of astonishment. “It may seem sacrilegious for some, but the condition I found this vehicle in, I couldn’t save the powertrain. So, considering how hard it is to find an original powertrain for this car, I did what I felt was best. I made it more powerful, but better for the environment. I was able to make this vehicle a hybrid.” You gesture, walking over to a corner of the sheet, waving Lizzie to follow. She looked over the vehicle before looking at you with tears in her eyes. You handed her the corner of the fabric, and told her to pull it towards the corner. She nodded, wiping the tears away that had fallen, before she pulled the fabric off the car, revealing a black 1961 Ferrari Spyder. She immediately dropped the fabric, covering her mouth as she cried seeing the vehicle that she spoke so emphatically about. The twins, Jarnie and Dave all crying, as the vehicle, like the old Chevy to your mom, was her dads car growing up. 

The room began to mill around, looking at the vehicle, as you lifted the hood to reveal a hybrid electric power plant, and Lizzie came up and wrapped her arms around you from behind. 

“Why?” She whispered, causing goosebumps to erupt across your body. “You didn’t need to do this, you know.”

“You deserve it. Your family, they deserve it too. You’ve been there for me, more than anyone ever has. So many times you pulled me from a dark place, and you have no idea how much I appreciate that, because had you not been there, I would not be here today.” Your eyes get misty as you pull her away towards a farther corner of the room. 

“What do you mean, Y/N?” She asks, not fully understanding the depth of what needs to be said. 

“I’ll tell you later. First, I want you and your dad to go take a ride in your new old car.” You say, smiling as you hand her the keys. 

“Y/N, you can’t be serious. You built it for me? This, this is mine?” Her hand was shaking as she reached for the keys. 

“Yes. Yes it is.” You shook your head, slipping the keys into her hand. 

“But, wha…what about mom and dad?” She asked, gesturing towards them, as they looked over the vehicle, Jarnie sitting in the passenger seat. 

“I already asked them, they agree. This is your car.” She whipped her head in your direction at the admission. 

“They knew about this?”

“Not to the extent that I did, but they knew I bought your grandpas car back. I had to ask them for the records to the car to find it.”

“You sneaky fucking shit,” she laughed at you, smacking your chest. 

“Go, enjoy it. We can talk when you get back,” you smile at her, before she went running over and hugging her mom and dad. You smiled at the interaction between the three. 

“You did good, hun.” Your mom says, coming up and hugging you. “It’s a beautiful car.”

“Thanks, ma. I appreciate it.” You smile, hugging her tight. 

“Now, Y/N… when are you going to tell the poor girl how you feel?” It was your turn to look absolutely stunned. “Y/N, honey, I know how you feel about her. It’s obvious. I may not have accepted the fact that you were gay at first, but I know you better than anyone. You and her, you’re crazy about each other, and you both keep running around it, and avoiding it. Tell Liz how you feel. She feels the same way.”

“Ma, I know. What is this, gang up on Y/N day? MK said the same thing to me not even 2 hours ago.”

“Because it’s true, Y/N. Don’t be stupid, look where that got you with your last relationship.” She scolded, before walking away. You stood there stunned at what your mother had just told you. You knew that she didn’t like your now ex-wife. You just thought that was in part to her not agreeing with you being gay. But it wasn’t. She just hated your ex. You let out a deep sigh, jumping when a hand lands on your shoulder. 

“What was that about?” MK asked, raising her eyebrow like she really knew the answer. 

“You two are teaming up on me. I swear.” You grumble. 

“Because we care? And because we know. Believe me, I know Lizzie better than anyone.”

“What does that even mean??” You groan. 

“Y/N, don’t be dense. Just wo-man up and say it.” You grimace at the statement. 

“Ew. Don’t ever say wo-man up ever, ever again.” She laughs before walking away, just as the black convertible pulls back into the garage. Lizzie is grinning from ear to ear, and her dad is too. 

“This isn’t what we had anticipated when you asked for information about the car, Y/N/N.” Jarnie slid in next to you, still staring at the car on the other end of the shop. “We thought you were going to leave it as-is. This is better than we all had imagined. They look so happy.” She smiled, taking in the sight of the three girls and their dad around the car. 

“It was your dads car, what do you think?” You ask, nudging the eldest Olsen. 

“It’s perfect, Y/N. Especially for Liz.” You turn and give the woman a hug, before she walks over to where the twins stood. You decide to let them look everything over, and dismiss yourself through the crowd, shanking hands and briefly speaking with those who stopped you on the way upstairs to your office. With how the last year has been, you find yourself reflecting by yourself more often. You see some people begin to filter their way out, at this point the party had been going on for roughly 4 hours. You again found yourself behind your desk, staring into space, not noticing the new presence in the room. 

“I was told you needed to speak to me.” The voice of your best friend rang out from behind you. 

“You were told, huh?” You smile, turning in your chair to face your best friend, who sat herself down in the chair across from you, the desk now in between. 

“More like, directed to come up here by your mom, my mom and my sisters.” She said, laughing. You rolled  your eyes at their insistence. 

“Of course, they’re seriously annoying me tonight.”

“Oh? How come?”

“It’s nothing, Liz.” She shook her head in response. 

“What were you talking about earlier, Y/N? When you said you wouldn’t be here?”

“What I meant, was that you were what kept me going, Liz.” You let out a deep sigh, shifting your gaze to the floor beside the actress. “I was so close, so many times, to calling it quits. You always had a way of pulling me out of it. Sometimes I would get your text in the middle of my meltdown, or a phone call because you just wanted to catch up.” You laugh a watery laugh. “The last time we spoke on the phone, you had called at one of the worst times for me.” Her face shifted to one of confusion and concern.

“What do you mean?”

“Do you remember the last phone call, not video call, we had?”

“Yeah, you told me in that call that you and she-devil were getting a divorce. I tried to video call you instead but you kept declining it.”

“Yeah. I kept declining it because I was on the edge, Liz. I didn’t want you to see me like that. But you called without knowing something was going on. And hearing your voice, made me picture you. You saved me that night. Otherwise the next time you saw me, it would have been in a casket.” She stood, moving towards you and kneeling before you in your chair. 

“Why didn’t you tell me, Y/N? I had no idea…” she trailed off. You wiped your face with the back of your hand, sniffling at the admission. 

“Because Liz, I didn’t want to be a burden. I knew if you found out, you would up and leave what you were doing. I didn’t want to be that friend, that made you leave a movie that you had been so happy about landing.”

“Y/N, I would have left because you mean the world to me. I would have rather left than finding out you killed yourself and never got the chance to k… see you again.” She stumbled over the last bit of the sentence, catching your attention. 

“Lizzie,” you took her hands, spinning the ring on her pointer finger in your hand. “I do need to tell you something.”

“Ok. But only if I can tell you something afterwards.” You shake your head, acknowledging her request. Taking a deep breath, you push back from her, afraid to see the reaction she has to you. Standing, you walk away, closing the door to the office, and pushing the button by your light switch for the blinds to come down. You pace back and forth, before settling on a spot, and turning to look at your best friend. She was now standing behind your desk, with her arms crossed, a concerned look strewn across her features. 

“Lizzie,” you start, your heart beat seemingly pounding louder and louder. “You’re one of the best people in my life, and you quickly became one of the most important to me. No matter what you think, I can’t loose you, as a friend…” you start as she shifts her weight from one leg to another. “But, I need to tell you, that I love you. Not just as my best friend, not just as a person. I really truly love you.” You say, your eyes darting over to gauge her reaction. Her face remained stoic, she was certainly giving you her best Wanda expression. She ran her hand through her hair, taking a deep breath, before looking down. You began to panic, unsure of how she was reacting. 

“Y/N,” she started, her voice smaller than normal. She suddenly surged forwards, wrapping her arms behind your neck. “I love you too. I have, for a while.” She responded, as your face went from sullen and distant to hopeful. She leaned in, ghosting her lips against yours. “But I want you to make the first move.” She smirked, pulling away ever so slightly to look into your eyes. You looked for any sense or indication of being hesitant, finding none. Bringing your hand up to grab her behind her head, you pull her towards you, placing your other hand on the small of her back, and flushing her body against yours. Lowering your head, you press your lips against hers, sealing your confessions in a slow kiss. You both continued, slowly, passionately, before you separated and rested your foreheads against each others. 

“How long, Liz?” You asked, grabbing hold of her hands, playing with her fingers. 

“A month after we met, I knew something was different. But I was also scared of my feelings, scared of my parents, and how everyone may react. But watching you marry Lauren, that was one of the most difficult nights of my life. At that point I thought that I had lost you, and I was never going to forgive myself. I knew that after the night we woke up together in the same bed, I should have told you how I felt. Maybe, just maybe, I wouldn’t have driven you to someone else.”

“Liz, you didn’t though. I should have said something sooner. I didn’t want to loose you.”

“You have the chance now, Y/N. Don’t loose me now.” She responds, before you crash your lips to hers in a much more sloppy, heated kiss. You quickly took over, directing all the passion and emotion into the kiss, pushing her smaller frame against your desk. You feel her smile into the kiss, biting your lip before pulling away. “You have no idea how long I have waited for that, Y/N.” 

You smiled, pulling her in for a tight hug, nestling your face into the crook of her neck, her arms wrapped around the back of your neck, fingers laced in your hair. 

“I love you, Y/N.”

“I love you, Liz.”

[xdeepinyoux]

US ELECTION Breakdown and the American Neo Nazi flood.

As of 5:34 this morning on November 6th, the 2024 candidate for the next president was announced. While many are celebrating, there are many like myself who are terrified. I am fortunate enough to live in a Blue state (Democrat) but many are not. There will be many people who claim it’s because of the economy that they voted for Trump, unfortunately this is not true. It saddens me to say that as Americans, understanding different aspects of the candidates main running points can be misunderstood and or entirely wrong. Let’s correct and breakdown these misconceptions.

Understanding Trumps Economic Plan:

Trumps plan will endanger, if not entirely bankrupt the American economy. His plan is to raise the taxes of lower class (low income) and middle class taxes while giving a massive tax breaks to those in the 2-1% (those who make a minimum of $900,000 annually).

Nobel prize winners, people who are awarded the Nobel prize for their incredible contributions to humanity:

More than half of the living economist Nobel prize winners (all with different backgrounds and political beliefs) voiced support for Kamala’s plan and labeled it as superior to Trumps. Trump added over 8 trillion dollars worth of debt to the US during his first term in office.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/science/kamala-harris-nobel-winners.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/science/kamala-harris-nobel-winners.html

Tariff’s:

Definition- a tax imposed by one country on the goods and services imported from another country to influence it, raise revenues, or protect competitive advantages

Trump plans to impose Tariff’s which would be paid for by the American people, not the country whose goods are being imported. Adding this tax on imported goods will raise our country’s inflation higher. The purpose of this is to create market distortions that can actually harm domestic consumers over time.

The American Economy is Built on Immigrants:

Immigration, specifically undocumented immigrants, are constant talking points in which Trump uses to manipulate and induce fear into MAGA and other voters. By using derogatory language and racial stereotypes, he has created a harmful, dangerous and false narrative of undocumented people. Where Trump claims they are “taking American jobs”, the truth behind the matter is that undocumented migrants are working jobs that Americans do not want and will not work for the pay that is given. This was reconfirmed when Florida Govern, Ron Desantis, exiled and deported thousands of undocumented immigrants in Florida which left American citizens to complain and refuse to work those labor intensive jobs even after food shortages occurred in 2023.

Mass Deportation and what it means for the American Economy:

Mass deportation and demonization of immigrant people will lead to the downfall of the American Economy. Adding to his economic plan, the topic of deporting over a million migrants back to there birth countries would not only cost hundreds of billions of dollars but also cause labor and food shortages that have only been seen in the years 1929 – 1939 (The Great Depression).

What does this mean overall for the American People?

With a deadly combination of mass deportation, higher taxes and tariff’s the American economy will crash. Along with targeting minority groups, inflation will also bring us back to the philosophical question; would you steal bread to feed your family? The question at hand seems simple, yet statistics show the correlation between high crime rates and poverty levels time and time again. As American citizens we will see the rise of Trumps violence for a second term in office. Violent crimes against women and children, hate crimes and other violence against minorities and those who are apart of the LGBT+ community.

Trump has also spoken openly about his desire to rid Americans of their right to choose ranging from topics of abortion to voting. He has recently stated that when he wins American citizens won’t have to vote again after four years. While some may interpret this as it being his second term and therefore no longer being eligible to run again, it may have a much darker meaning. Trump has shown in the past that he has no issues with disregarding the American constitution and overturning democracy. If he were to succeed in overturning future election and voting laws then he would become Americas first Dictator. Furthermore, Trump is a convicted felon with 34 counts including but not limited to: Rape, selling national security secrets to enemy nations, staging a coup to overturn the 2020 election, election interference and voter fraud. Though we have a glimpse of what the next four years will look like it is unsure as Trump is dangerous and unpredictable. Voting for Trump in 2024 is Voting against America.

Final Note:

To anyone living in a red state where you are not safe please see the resources below:

LGBTQ+ INCLUSIVE CRISIS LINES:

Trevor Project: 1-866-488-7386

or text START to 678-678 or online chat

Trans Lifeline: 877-565-8860

Suicide & Crisis Lifeline: 988

[samueldays]

E(X) is wrong or intractable, and other problems

Recently, Bryan Caplan wrote a Substack post E(X)>0: An Open Letter to Elon. I have objections to it.

1. My overarching objection to Caplan's vagueness is this question: E(X) on what metrics, according to whom, and for whom?

In his post, Caplan suggests that the United States (and, I would imagine, any developed country), should admit any would-be immigrant "with a positive expected value", in math notation E(X)>0.

Caplan strikes me as doing some "eulering" here, making math-y noises to borrow the clout of mathematics, talking as though an objective calculation of expected value [EV] can decide a matter which involves a great many subjective preferences and (assertions of) human rights. Then he does not perform the calculation.

He implicitly describes a calculation in his point 12:

“Why on Earth don’t we heavily restrict welfare benefits for migrants, so E(X)>0 for far more people?!”

which suggests that his expectation E(X) is calculated in terms of something like "net taxpayers". I don't know what calculation he actually has in mind, because - and this is a major issue - he doesn't specify the calculation that his argument leans on.

I will not criticise the specific "net taxpayers" possibility too harshly, for fear of strawmanning. I will instead mostly criticise him for the under-specification, and I think the general class of Expected Value Calculations consonant with "heavily restrict welfare benefits" are easily gamed while failing to capture the values and preferences involved in opposing mass immigration. The details Caplan has given are exploitable; the details Caplan has not given are a canvas on which each listener is invited to project his preference.

One can imagine a theoretical EV calculation for which it is tautologically true that one would want to import all E(X)>0 foreigners, but the hypothesis of a Platonic object tells one nothing about what that calculation is or how many foreigners are E(X)>0 to import.

I don't want to attack something Caplan didn't say, but he's skipped some important argument steps that I think would merit a great deal of attack if he did say them. For example the steps between the welfare-benefits-based EV calculation, and the "everyone with E(X)>0" assertion, because I can easily imagine people who are net negatives to have around even if they are not net welfare consumers.

Now you’re saying, roughly, that we should only welcome people that definitely have highly positive value. In your words:

If one is operating anywhere near a welfare-benefits-based kind of EV calculation, then it certainly behooves one to take only people who definitely have highly positive value on that calculation, because they may have negative other factors that bring the "true" EV calculation down and so one needs a buffer on the welfare-benefits side to ensure that "true" E(X) > 0.

Which brings me to:

2. The Black Swan of Rotherham.

In 2005, if you had suggested that mass migration would reintroduce slavery to Britain, you would probably be laughed out of the room for absurd paranoid fearmongering. Around 2010-2015 the Rotherham rape ring scandals came to light, first in Rotherham itself and then in Telford and Rochdale and elsewhere, and it gradually turned out that mass migration had reintroduced slavery to Britain.

I speak here of "slavery" in an institutional sense. A single man who is coerced to work and cheated out of his rightful pay may be called a slave, and statistically speaking that probably happened numerous times after Britain abolished slavery in 1833, but an incident does not make an institution. Whereas circa 1980, Britain imported Pakistani rape-gangs numbering in the hundreds of slavers, who took thousands of British girls as sex slaves across dozens of cities over the next few decades.

That was institutional by scale; it was also institutional by policy because when the fathers of enslaved children attempted to recover their children, the police repeatedly ran interference for the slavers, sometimes arresting the slaves, other times arresting the fathers for disturbing the peace, other times saying nothing could be done because of 'racial tensions'. Politicians helped hush up the slaver rings because they were concerned that people noticing the Pakistani slaver rings raping thousands of British girls might lead to the native Brits being racist against Pakistanis.

Problem 2a is the object level: importing slavers to enslave the existing population has very large negative EV for an intuitive EV calculation, but it hardly shows up in the ratio of taxes paid to welfare benefits received by the slavers.

Problem 2b is the future unknowns: considering how unpredicted and unnoticed this was until after the fact, how many other problems of the general type of "Ooops, we reintroduced slavery" may be lurking? India has for example Hindutva vigilantes who murder people for violating the sacredness of cows (at least 9 dead in 2024); imagine importing those from a place where beef is banned to a place whose national dish is the hamburger.

Problem 2c is the lies and coverups: many powerful people thought it was more important to preserve the reputation of immigrants in general and Pakistanis in specific than to stop slave-rape-gangs. This creates a credibility problem when looking for sources to calculate the impact of migration. Caplan seems more honest than average, but still shows some sympathy for coverups in his point 14:

My friend and colleague Tyler Cowen recently advised you to stop publicly defending high-skilled immigration, and “just work behind the scenes.” Maybe he’s right, but I think he underestimates your powers of persuasion.

Problem 2d was the weak response: Britain jailed only a small fraction of the slavers, jail sentences were short, the policemen got a slap on the wrist with one police commissioner stepping down, there should have been a targeted re-education program to break the Pakistani-British culture and enforce assimilation or deportation, there was not, instead there was a stricter control of people saying racist things on the internet, while importing more Pakistanis. This has generated substantial ethnic resentment among the native British population.

How do these figure into the E(X) of mass migration, or the determination of whether it's above 0? God only knows. The error bar on the value of Pakistani immigration looks larger than the value itself to me.

Perhaps Caplan intends to filter out such people from mass migration as part of EV determination. If so, he's handwaving over both a calculation problem and a practical implementation problem.

3. Rights, Privileges, Serfs, and Riots

Some time ago, a fellow on Tumblr bemoaned how difficult it was to move to another country.

I responded that it was trivial to "move to" as in transport myself to another country, which I had recently done that year for my summer vacation, but it was difficult to "move to" as in acquire political power and entitlements in another country for arguably good reason, and challenged the fellow to clarify which he meant. I never got a response.

Bryan Caplan trades on similar ambiguity when he posts cartoon panels such as this:

As written, I deny the claimed "right". I do not think he believes it himself; he would deny my "right" to live and work in his house.

But even interpreted charitably, Caplan is playing games, he is pulling a bait and switch maneuver, he is doing a motte-and-bailey between move as in transport and move as in acquire entitlements, and he is skipping important steps. Once again it's hard to give specific criticisms because I don't know which end of the ambiguity he really intends, so I will attempt to suggest some problems at either end:

If Caplan asserts a right for people to live and work and acquire political power and entitlements in foreign countries, he's arguing for a self-contradictory 'right to privileges', and he's arguing for the 'right' to destroy every small country in the world, in particular the ROC (population 23 million) which is susceptible to the PRC (population 1.4 billion) finding the 0.2% most patriotic loyalists (28 million), sending them into ROC and holding a majority vote to integrate the ROC into the PRC. This strikes me as an obviously wrong conclusion, reductio ad absurdum.

On the other hand, if Caplan asserts a right for people to live and work where they like but only as long as they're a powerless underclass banned from the ER, existing to pay taxes to the native population, and getting deported if they become welfare cases, then a moral problem is that he's advocating something like the return of serfdom.

Spare me the medieval nitpicking, I know the word is not exactly accurate, serfs had more rights than that. Helots is more accurate, but I think most English-speakers have an intuition for "serfs" that they don't have for "helots".

A practical problem following from that is that a large helot class in America would be very hard to keep as helots, when the country has a tradition of democracy, a history of expanding the franchise over time, and riots. The helots would be political tinder waiting to burn.

I ask Caplan: Suppose you get your helot class, American GDP goes up, and then a photogenic helot dies in a way that might have been prevented by welfare, leaving behind a pair of sad orphans. The Democrats spring into action to demand helot welfare and enfranchisement, organizing a helot riot. What do you do?

Of note here is that a helot riot doesn't have to win to wipe out the tax gains from helots. BLM's fiery rioting in 2020 caused at least a billion dollars in damages (as measured by insurance payouts) without abolishing the police.

4. Wage Suppression and Automation

In his proposal to optimize net taxpayers or something like it, Caplan would optimize at the expense of a great many Americans, particularly low-skill Americans who would suffer from extreme wage suppression. America is a nice place to live partly because of the twofold effects of labor scarcity: labor had more bargaining power against capital, and was able to demand better working conditions, and labor scarcity incentivized automation, which freed people up to do other jobs.

Regarding bargaining power: Caplan analogizes America to a corporation, I would respond by analogizing America to a union, and Caplan's proposal to colossal amounts of scab labor intended to break the union to save the CEO some money. Why should the union put up with this?

Regarding automation: If one goes back a few millennia, almost all of humanity worked one of two jobs: producing food or producing clothes. By inventions such as the plow, the loom, the horse collar, the spinning wheel, and the tractor, machines* took almost all these jobs and humans were freed up to do other work like steelmaking and glassblowing. Then machines mostly took those jobs too, the process of automation repeated, and now the average American benefits from machine-power equaling the manual labor of hundreds of humans.

*horses are machines in this context.

Caplan proposes to import large amounts of unskilled migrant labor to do scut work, and doesn't say how this interacts with automation. Concretely:

But look at your own companies. You don’t just hire top engineers and programmers. You hire receptionists, assembly-line workers, janitors, gardeners, and construction workers. With good reason: Otherwise, your top engineers and programmers would have to waste their precious time answering Tesla’s phones, assembling its cars, cleaning its toilets, mowing its lawns, and pouring its concrete.

Many of these look automatable, particularly the assembly line, which is already well into the process.

Once again I'm frowning at an ambiguous gap in Caplan's proposal, where I can imagine several possible views but criticising any particular one is something of a strawman because Caplan hasn't committed to it.

Does he imagine that automation will decline naturally as a result of the cheap labor? Because that sounds like trading long-term benefit for short-term net taxpayer count.

Does he imagine that automation should be held back? Same but worse.

Does he imagine that automation can't take these jobs any time soon? Sounds fake.

Does he imagine that automation will take these jobs soon but then America can just send all the migrants back once they're out of work, and wash its hands of them? Sounds unlikely and impractical.

Does he imagine that automation will take these jobs soon but low-skill migrants will simply retrain and develop skills for new jobs? Sounds wrong by construction.

And once more I ask: E(X) for whom? Caplan says America "needs" mass unskilled immigration, but large numbers of Americans would suffer from this.

5. Social Contracts

I am generally skeptical of social contract theorists as trying to claim too many specifics from too little evidence. Hobbes in particular was lying about the war of all against all. Even so I am sympathetic to a minimal account which goes something like this:

I (we in general) will give up my natural right to take amateur vengeance on and extract compensation from anyone who has wronged me. In exchange, the State promises to perform vengeance by a professional enforcer class in a way that's predictable and reliable and won't lead to blood feuds, and to pay me compensation from the collective compensation fund.

The modern American state has enforced a broadly similar new social contract which I might describe thus:

I (we in general) will give up my natural right of freedom of association, to decide which countrymen I will admit or exclude to my business, will hire or not. In exchange, the State promises to perform exclusion at the country border by a professional enforcer class, lowering friction internally and lowering costs of maintaining an exclusion around the collective American identity.

I have complaints and nitpicks about this, but I can see a meaningful value proposition in it.

When Caplan argues for open borders, he is arguing to take away what Americans received in that second contract. Again there's a gap where I don't know what Caplan believes, so I will comment on the two likely interpretations I can think of:

Is Caplan trying to tear up the new social contract in its entirety? Then I want him to bite the bullet and say out loud that he wants to restore freedom of association and overturn the Civil Rights Act.

Is Caplan trying to take away the benefit of the new social contract and give nothing in return? Then many Americans might reasonably want him jailed for conspiracy against rights or similar offense.

6. Policy Change Friction Around Humans

Bryan Caplan argues against "safetyism" and makes the analogy that just as an investor should want to make every investment with E(X)>0, a country should want to admit every migrant with E(X)>0. He admits "While there are obviously major differences between running a corporation and running a government", then ignores this obvious point as though it made no difference.

I want to highlight a particular point of dis-analogy: it is much easier, practically and morally and legally, for an investor to ditch a million-dollar investment at the first sign of it turning bad than it is for a country to ditch a million migrants at the first sign of them turning bad.

Migration is difficult and costly to reverse, and most countries have significant political constituencies opposed to that reversal, backed by international organizations such as Amnesty. You'd be hard pressed to find a single elected official with a strong opinion that Jane Doe must stay invested in Acme Corp, for most values of Jane and Acme.

Under these circumstances, some form of safetyism is correct: the threshold should not be E(X) > 0, but E(X) > Cost(Deportation), estimated around eighty thousand dollars per person by the American Immigration Council. Which is probably biased, but the sources I can find for estimating this number seem to amount to either AIC knockoffs or else Trump fanatics insisting "deportation will pay for itself".

7. Assume a spherical cow in a vacuum...

The "spherical cow" is originally a physics joke about greatly simplified modeling that discards many features of the object under consideration to simplify calculations. In physics, this is often good enough because the features under consideration, e.g. "mass of an object", range between the 10^-21 grams of an atom and the 10^33 grams of the Sun, so one can afford to round off (ha) a great deal and still be close enough on an exponential scale. The Earth is approximately spherical even if a mountain rises a few miles above sea level, that's very little compared to the circumference of thousands of miles.

Outside of physics, the spherical cow approach is less applicable.

I would like to see Bryan Caplan distinguish more sharply between the realistic policy changes he's pushing for on the margin, and the spherical cow policies where he imagines a friendly Supreme Dictator who can copy UAE policies to the US. I would also like to see more awareness from Caplan of when he is assuming a spherical immigrant who can be rolled across a frictionless border in a political vacuum. Caplan's talk of E(X)>0 is spherical talk, assuming a simple calculation. Caplan's neglect of ethnic resentment in the implied EV calculation is discarding important features. Caplan's implication of ditching migrants if their recalculated E(X)<0 is handwaving over a great many issues and costs.

Another oversimplification of Caplan's is disregarding the potential political power of migrants, or its near relative, the willingness of the Democrat Party to clientize migrants for political power.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Also preserved on our archive

I hate the focus on economic over human cost, but it's important to have those two words in the news.

By David Brzostowicki

Long COVID, a major public health crisis, is also becoming a significant economic crisis. A new study in Nature reports that the global annual economic impact of long COVID has hit $1 trillion — or about 1% of the global economy.

Long COVID is estimated to affect 6%-7% of adults. Those afflicted are often unable to work for extended periods, and some simply stop working altogether.

Besides damaging individual lives, long COVID is having wide-ranging impacts on health systems and economies worldwide, as those who suffer from it have large absences from work, leading to lower productivity. Even those who return to work after weeks, months, or even up to a year out of work may come back with worse productivity and some functional impairment — as a few of the condition’s common symptoms include fatigue and brain fog.

Experts say more is needed not only in terms of scientific research into new treatments for long COVID but also from a public policy perspective.

Long COVID’s impact on the labor force is already having ripple effects throughout the economy of the United States and other countries. Earlier this year, the US Government Accountability Office stated long COVID potentially affects up to 23 million Americans, with as many as a million people out of work. The healthcare industry is particularly hard hit.

The latest survey from the National Center for Health Statistics estimated 17.3%-18.6% of adults have experienced long COVID. This isn’t the same as those who have it now, only a broad indicator of people who’ve ever experienced symptoms.

Public health experts, economists, researchers, and physicians say they are only beginning to focus on ways to reduce long COVID’s impact.

They suggest a range of potential solutions to address the public health crisis and the economic impacts — including implementing a more thorough surveillance system to track long COVID cases, building better ventilation systems in hospitals and buildings to reduce the spread of the virus, increasing vaccination efforts as new viral strains continuously emerge, and more funding for long COVID research to better quantify and qualify the disease’s impact.

Shaky Statistics, Inconsistent Surveillance David Smith, MD, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Diego, said more needs to be done to survey, quantify, and qualify the impacts of long COVID on the economy before practical solutions can be identified.

“Our surveillance system sucks,” Smith said. “I can see how many people test positive for COVID, but how many of those people have long COVID?”

Long COVID also doesn’t have a true definition or standard diagnosis, which complicates surveillance efforts. It includes a spectrum of symptoms such as shortness of breath, chronic fatigue, and brain fog that linger for 2-3 months after an acute infection. But there’s no “concrete case definition,” Smith said. “And not everybody's long COVID is exactly the same as everybody else's.” As a result, epidemiologists can’t effectively characterize the disease, and health economists can’t measure its exact economic impact.

Few countries have established comprehensive surveillance systems to estimate the burden of long COVID at the population level.

The United States currently tracks new cases by measuring wastewater levels, which isn’t as comprehensive as the tracking that was done during the pandemic. But positive wastewater samples can’t tell us who is infected in an area, nor can it distinguish whether a visitor/tourist or resident is mostly contributing to the wastewater analysis — an important distinction in public health studies.

Wastewater surveillance is an excellent complement to traditional disease surveillance with advantages and disadvantages, but it shouldn’t be the sole way to measure disease.

What Research Best Informs the Debate? A study by Economist Impact — a think tank that partners with corporations, foundations, NGOs, and governments to help drive policy — estimated between a 0.5% and 2.3% gross domestic product (GDP) loss across eight separate countries in 2024. The study included the United Kingdom and United States.

Meanwhile, Australian researchers recently detailed how long COVID-related reductions in labor supply affected its productivity and GDP from 2022 to 2024. The study found that long COVID could be costing the Australian economy about 0.5% of its GDP, which researchers deemed a conservative estimate.

Public health researchers in New Zealand used the estimate of GDP loss in Australia to measure their own potential losses and advocated for strengthening occupational support across all sectors to protect health.

But these studies can’t quite compare with what would have to be done for the United States economy.

“New Zealand is small…and has an excellent public health system with good delivery of vaccines and treatments…so how do we compare that to us?” Smith said. “They do better in all of their public health metrics than we do.”

Measuring the Economic Impact Gopi Shah Goda, PhD, a health economist and senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, co-authored a 2023 study that found COVID-19 reduced the US labor force by about 500,000 people.

Plus, workers who missed a full week due to COVID-19 absences became 7% less likely to return to the labor force a year later compared with workers who didn’t miss work for health reasons. That amounts to 0.2% of the labor force, a significant number.

“Even a small percent of the labor force is a big number…it’s like an extra year of populating aging,” Goda said.

“Some people who get long COVID might have dropped out of the labor force anyway,” Goda added.

The study concluded that average individual earnings lost from long COVID were $9000, and the total lost labor supply amounted to $62 billion annually — about half the estimated productivity losses from cancer or diabetes.

But research into long COVID research continues to be underfunded compared with other health conditions, experts noted.

Cancer and diabetes both receive billions of research dollars annually from the National Institutes of Health. Long COVID research gets only a few million, according to Goda.

Informing Public Health Policy When it comes to caring for patients with long COVID, the big issue facing every nation’s public policy leaders is how best to allocate limited health resources.

“Public health never has enough money…Do they buy more vaccines? Do they do educational programs? Who do they target the most?” Smith said.

Though Smith thinks the best preventative measure is increased vaccination, vaccination rates remain low in the United States.

“Unfortunately, as last fall demonstrated, there's a lot of vaccine indifference and skepticism,” said William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee.

Over the past year, only 14% of eligible children and 22% of adults received the 2023-2024 COVID vaccine boosters.

Schaffner said public health experts wrestle with ways to assure the public vaccines are safe and effective.

“They’re trying to provide a level of comfort that [getting vaccinated] is the socially appropriate thing to do,” which remains a significant challenge, Schaffner said.

Some people don’t have access to vaccines and comprehensive medical services because they lack insurance, Medicaid, and Medicare. And the United States still doesn’t distribute vaccines as well as other countries, Schaffner added.

“In other countries, every doctor’s office gets vaccines for free…here, we have a large commercial enterprise that basically runs it…there are still populations who aren’t reached,” he said.

Long COVID clinics that have opened around the country have offered help to some patients with long COVID. A year and a half ago, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, established its Long COVID Care Center. Stanford University, Stanford, California, opened its Long COVID Clinic back in 2021. Vanderbilt University now has its own, as well — the Adult Post-COVID Clinic.

But these clinics have faced declining federal resources, forcing some to close and others to face questions about whether they will be able to continue to operate without more aggressive federal direction and policy planning.

“With some central direction, we could provide better supportive care for the many patients with long COVID out there,” Schaffner said.

For countries with universal healthcare systems, services such as occupational health, extended sick leave, extended time for disability, and workers’ compensation benefits are readily available.

But in the United States, it’s often left to the physicians and their patients to figure out a plan. “I think we could make physicians more aware of options for their patients…for example, regularly check eligibility for workers compensation,” Schaffner said.

[ira-407]

What is Aspie Supremacy, Actually?

A lot of people know what aspie supremacy is, but don’t seem to actually know what it means. For one, its origins can be traced back to Mel Baggs. It’s possible someone else used the term before sie did, but the framework for it that people are most familiar with originated with hir. Mel also coined autistic supremacy before that. They’re not necessarily one in the same, but I don’t think it’s bad to use them interchangeably, especially since one is often accompanied by the other anyway. It's a similar idea to the disability hierarchy and "My Mind is Fine" doctrine that preceded it, and is directly related to these things.

Autistic Supremacy is an autistic person acting like or outright stating they’re superior to non-autistic people. This often comes in the form of what was called “NT-bashing” in the usenet days. I personally don’t see it as different enough from Aspie Supremacy for the distinction to really matter, but it was something Mel came up with before Aspie Supremacy and is linked to it. Someone is an autistic supremacist when they make a space that is only for autistic people and they don’t even allow cousins in. Autistic spaces are important, but I think what makes a space autistic space vs. not one is who is in the majority, and moreover, who is in control. So I don’t care so much if it’s all autistic or not. I feel like that mindset does more damage than it helps. “By and for autistic people” doesn’t need to mean “autistics only, sorry”. It’s part of what made the Facebook group Just Us Autistics so bad. Anyway.

Aspie Supremacy is autistic people acting superior to other autistic people. This was much more blatant when Mel devised the term but is absolutely still a thing. It runs a lot deeper than I think most people are willing to admit-or, to be more specific, the people who are perpetrating it. As much as I’ve mentioned Mel already, I don’t think the definition of Aspie Supremacy is beholden to Mel and Mel alone, and I don’t think sie would think so either. Based on what I’ve observed, I think the examples I’m about to give are very much things Mel would have agreed qualify as Aspie Supremacy regardless. Aspie Supremacy isn’t simply when someone declares themself an aspie or when a person clings onto the Asperger’s diagnosis despite its extinction. Sure, that counts as it, and many people who do that also do other things, but that’s just the most apparent form of Aspie Supremacy. There are more covert examples that I argue are more insidious, and are done by people who would be very quick to denounce Asperger’s, but only because the person it’s named after was a nazi and for no other reason. 

Examples of Aspie Supremacy:

 Failing to mention anything related to disability in your advocacy-ergo, talking about autism as its own thing or solely as a cultural identity

Moreover, failing to contextualize autism within the scope of the broader disability community and rights movement. MAYBE saying something about ADHD but that’s it.

Doubly so if you ignore the I/DD-led Self-Advocacy Movement

Not centering people with I/DD in your advocacy at all

If you do mention people with I/DD, it’s brief and basically an afterthought. Perhaps as a statistic or vague example of something.

Separating autism as its own thing from the rest of the neurodivergent umbrella

Saying you “stand with nonspeakers” and do nothing to actually engage with them beyond sharing their stuff on social media

Saying you “stand with nonspeakers” only to say very stigmatizing things about them

When being called out for this, you don’t listen and perhaps try to argue that you’re actually right. Bonus points if the person you’re arguing with has I/DD and/or is nonspeaking.

Tokenize nonspeakers and silo them into their own special subclass of the autistic population

Use “Medium/High Support Needs” as a stand-in for “low functioning”

Assert that you are nothing like people you deem to have higher support needs

Using your autism as an excuse for racism and calling people ableist for rightfully criticizing your behavior because “[the racism] is one of my autism symptoms”

Wanting more autism subtypes to be officially recognized like AuDHD or PDA

On that note, using PDA as an excuse for shitty behavior, ESPECIALLY if you consider it a “pervasive drive for autonomy”

Trying to rebrand PDA as a “pervasive drive for autonomy”

Your advocacy being highly academic and intellectual-sounding with no effort in making it sound more accessible

On that note, not engaging in the actual community that is outside of academia's ivory tower, unless it's for academic research

Being against the idea of autism or ADHD being considered a disorder

Caring significantly about the distinction between “disorder” and “disability”

Forcing people to exclusively use identity-first language and not even considering person-first language’s origins

Talking about the social model of disability in the misunderstood concept of “people are only disabled by societal barriers”, denying the existence of disability that comes from personal impairments at all

Supporting the removal of autism and maybe ADHD from the DSM but only those because they’re “identities” 

Thinking that autistic people are direct descendants of neanderthals 

Armchair diagnosing people with mental illnesses just because they don’t do things you like

Denying the legitimacy of someone because they use FC, RPM, or a similar method to form words

Saying things like "that's not autism or intellectual disability it's apraxia" or some other form of that statement

There are definitely more but these are all of the examples I could readily think of. All of which I have observed from other people. So as you can see, these are things that are actually quite common in autistic spaces. Really, most of these are signs of being a generally indecent person. It’s pretty damning how many people I know do this, and to be clear, they aren’t people I like. At this point, I have zero tolerance for Aspie Supremacy. It’s one thing to still be in the learning process and having a commitment to doing as good by certain people as possible, but it’s another thing to do the stuff I listed above *and be proud of it*. As for one particular example, I will say there’s nuance to saying you’re not like another person and some truth to it. Where I take issue is when you do this with another autistic person in a way where you’re saying you don’t even have the same disability as them, especially if you’re saying they don’t deserve the same rights and basic respect as you do. That autistic person who doesn’t speak and has an intellectual disability is likely more like you than you think, and to deny those similarities is wrong and exclusionary. 

TL;DR Aspie Supremacy sucks. It’s something people need to check within themselves. It’s also a lot more prevalent than one may think, and denouncing the specific labels of aspie and Asperger’s does not recuse oneself from it.