#probability and statistics

[ceescedasticity]

There is the opportunity for a trick question along the lines of: You have tossed a coin 99 times and it has come up heads every time. What do you predict for the next toss? Heads; tails; equally likely.

With the correct answer being 'heads'. Because with a fair coin toss they're equally likely, but! Do you know what the global rate of unfair coins is? I don't, but it isn't zero. Trick coins exist. Even ruling that out, the primary purpose of coins is not equal-probability randomization and I'm pretty sure no one is validating their aerodynamics and/or density to make sure they're fair.

So you modify your previous idea of the probability distribution of the coin toss outcomes, and figure the next toss is more likely to be heads.

Actually that's a fun idea for a Bayesian statistics exploration — what does your posterior distribution do as you accumulate more and more results from what is in fact a two-head coin?

[multi-fandom-magic]

Applied Math Probability and Statistics Midterm next Wednesday. No calculator and no cheat sheet allowed🫠🥲

[engineeringmath]

Curing the Compulsive Gambler: Challenging Probability Problem

Mr. Brown always bets a dollar on the number 13 at roulette against the advice of Kind Friend. To help cure Mr. Brown of playing roulette, Kind Friend always bets Brown $20 at even money that Brown will be behind at the end of 36 plays.

Mr. Brown always bets a dollar on the number 13 at roulette against the advice of Kind Friend. To help cure Mr. Brown of playing roulette, Kind Friend always bets Brown $20 at even money that Brown will be behind at the end of 36 plays. How is the cure working? (Most American roulette wheels have 38 equally likely numbers. If the player’s number comes up, he is paid 35 times his stake and gets…

[prokopetz]

Sometimes reading a new indie RPG gives you an insight into the principles of game design you'd have never arrived at on your own.

Sometimes reading a new indie RPG gives you a sum-of-2dX lookup table with its entries in alphabetical order.

[aropride]

if you ever think "why bother posting my spotify wrapped/apple music replay nobody really cares anyway" think of ME. I CARE. i love that shit i love seeing what music people like and how many minutes they listened to music etc. PLEASE post them i love it i love ittttt it's like a holiday for me

[skymallnine]

Replicator engineer who’s responsible for designing procedurally generated meal patterns. People were getting sad if their stew had the same 12 carrot chunks in it every time, so you put in a little noise. Not too much noise, though, or one day they might have one giant perfectly spherical chunk of carrot. Or just, way too much salt.

Meanwhile everyone in the Jack Pack is hoarding their favorite patterns like minecraft seeds. Why yes, I do want the same 12 carrot chunks, because I’ve figured out the optimal order to eat them in. Or maybe I enjoy the experience of eating the single spherical carrot like an apple. And it’s all nutritionally calibrated as well, so it’s a win-win, predictable food without all the Weird Digestive Consequences.

[eriyu]

i noticed a while back that Lyse, Alisaie, and Tataru seemed to be the only characters who say "maybe" regularly (as opposed to "perhaps" or "mayhap"). and a Reddit discussion about dialogue this morning made me go overboard again.

uhhhhh do with this information what you will?

if anyone has requests for other characters or other words; i can easily come up with their numbers too! (or you can grab the regex firefox extension i use here)

specifically, the Reddit post i saw was about how XIV's dialogue (or at least the English localization) has gotten simpler and blander over time — not just in Dawntrail, not just as part of the overall Dawntrail hate, but as early as Shadowbringers.

it's not something i've thought about a whole lot to have a strong opinion on tbh. but it did make me remember this thought about "maybe" i'd had in the past, and i wanted to crunch the numbers to see if i could learn anything. and my footnotes at the end are my notes to that effect.

Alphinaud, G'raha, and Estinien starting to use maybe could be a case study in XIV's dialogue becoming blander. or it could be a way of showing that they've become more relaxed as people, and more comfortable within the party. either way, i just thought tumblr might like this info!

[chaos-whatever]

I am going to explode 👍

[maxxifer]

alright free story idea that I personally find really funny.

Derek 'Chronic English Major' Hale having a secret love of period drama romance novels or some shit, and one day picks up a new and popular series where the story is essentially 'Pride and Prejudice but oops all werewolves'. He gets real invested and is really impressed by both the incredibly well researched historical accuracy, AS WELL as the ACCURATELY portrayed werewolf lore/representation.

I also like to imagine Derek and Lydia bond over their shared interest of books/films because 1. it's funny and 2. they're honestly both so dramatic and extra that after all the shit they and their friends went through, Derek and Lyds deserve to be buds. Anyway, said book series comes up in conversation, and Derek says he just started it and it's really good. Lydia inexplicitly starts cackling, but doesn't elaborate, just making vague comments almost like an inside joke.

Derek finishes the book series, and starts to put the pieces together. Some parts of these books seem almost... too familiar. But who would be the type of person to have encyclopedic knowledge on hyper specific parts of history, a flair for dramatics, AND a vast amount of experience with not only the supernatural, but especially werewolves?

...Yeah turns out Derek Hale's favourite book series was written by Stiles using a pen name, and no he does not want to talk about it.

[multi-fandom-magic]

Spent over half the time on the first question for the Probability and Statistics midterm🫠🥲

[glassshine]

European Furry map based on my 915 responses on twitter

more info here

[elodieunderglass]

And what if they grew old and were happy!! And what then!!

[engineeringmath]

Chuck-a-Luck: Challenging Probability Problem

Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game often played at carnivals and gambling houses. A player may bet on anyone of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Three dice are rolled. If the player's number appears on one, two, or three of the dice, he receives respectively on

Chuck-a-Luck is a gambling game often played at carnivals and gambling houses. A player may bet on anyone of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Three dice are rolled. If the player’s number appears on one, two, or three of the dice, he receives respectively one, two, or three times his original stake plus his own money back; otherwise, he loses his stake. What is the player’s expected loss per unit…

[prokopetz]

The tabletop game designer's true sorrow: when the results distribution that's most conducive to engaging play is unaesthetic.

[tumbler-polls]

[jackwhiteprophetic]

Hey guys have been doing some data analysis on hit TV show 9-1-1 today as one does, and basically:

- based on data from 7x01 to present (8x04, excluding 7x08 as none of the related characters are in this episode).

- Buck says "Eddie" an average of 0 (ZERO) times per episode if Tommy is not present.

- if Tommy is in a scene, Buck says "Eddie" an average of 2.75 times per episode.

- this is over double Buck's over all "Eddie" average per episode since season 2, which is currently 1.08 EPEs (eddie-per-episodes).

(here is my graph with data from S2 to S7, I will make a new one maybe at end of 8A but definitely by the end of season 8)

More data/analyses under the cut

If anyone is curious on similar data for Eddie:

- 0.4 BPEs if no T.

- 1.125 BPEs if T present.

(currently overall, Eddie is at 0.73 BPEs)

Sorry if I counted anything wrong lmao ANYWAY we bear in mind that when Tommy is present it is due to a Buck/Eddie plot in that episode (because they are often deliberately paired together by the writers) and just have more lines anyway so may be more likely to speak each others' names.

To me this highlights that Buck and Eddie are being heavily linked together whenever Tommy is there, which indicates that the writers want the audience to associate Buck's romantic relationships with Eddie. Also when interpreting Tommy as a storytelling device used to represent part of Buck's queer awakening, having Eddie be tied to this is another potentially interesting writing choice.

Basically gay Eddie is haunting bi Buck's narrative and Buck is narratively condemned to be unable to separate his queerness from his attachment to Eddie