alicewhimzy - Tumblr blog

[alicewhimzy]

It's weird because in the 3d animated films the pixie dust is important, they have a rationing system and everything, but that doesn't save this film because they all glow anyway! I am confusion. 😵‍💫

why do they let the worlds most boring people direct movies

[alicewhimzy]

Wonka is my fav out of the grown ups obviously. I think the West End musical did a lot for Charlie's character, much better than Burton and the book. However I think Miranda Piker has a lot of potential for interpersonal and psychological drama. So, those are my favs.

YALL

which Charlie and the chocolate factory character is your favorite?

[alicewhimzy]

Full moon tonight.

Have fun everybody.

🌕

[alicewhimzy]

More people need to see this.

Mike Luckovich

* * * *

One more time with feeling . . . Ignore the polls!

November 6, 2023

ROBERT B. HUBBELL

    We are one year out from the 2024 general election, and media outlets are busy predicting a future they cannot know. I routinely advise readers to “ignore the polls,” so whenever I write about the polls, readers tell me I should follow my own advice. Fair point. But the poll by the New York Times released over the weekend prompted dozens of readers to send panicked emails asking me to “Talk them off the ledge.” The NYTimes poll will get more coverage in the Monday news cycle, so in anticipation of hundreds of additional panicked reactions, I will once again address the issue of polling. It is a scourge that we will live with for the next year, so occasional reminders that the only poll that matters will occur on November 5, 2024, is in order.

          In short, the NYTimes poll found that Biden is trailing Trump in five of six swing states and that Democrats are losing ground among young, Hispanic, and Black voters. Many voters believe that Trump is better able to manage the economy, that Biden is “too old,” and cannot identify anything that Biden did to improve their lives. Go figure!

          Nothing I write below should be interpreted as saying that polls do not contain valuable information. They can (depending on their quality). Polls include information that helps campaign managers and candidates focus and refine their message. They are NOT predictions. Remember Nate Silver’s article in FiveThirtyEight in 2011, “Is Obama toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election.” If polls taken one year before elections were meaningfully predictive, then each of the following candidates should have quit their first campaigns: Carter, Clinton, Obama, Biden—and Trump.  

          So, why should we not panic over the polls? Indeed, is there a silver lining? (Spoiler alert: Yes.)

          Let’s start with a lesson that we must not forget: The old paradigm of “horse-race” polls no longer applies. Why? Because such polls assume that two legitimate candidates are competing for votes within the system. We have never had a candidate who seeks to overthrow the system. Or who attempted a coup. Or who plans to invoke the Insurrection Act on the first day of his next term. Or who called for the execution of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Or who will use the DOJ to persecute his perceived enemies. Or who was found liable for sexual assault. Or who will support a nationwide ban on reproductive liberty. Or who views Putin as a friend and NATO allies as adversaries and leeches.

          I have not studied the NYTimes methodology, but I am confident it simply asks some variant of, “Which candidate do you support in 2024?” Faced with that limited construct, it is easy to be seduced into making a forced choice without regard to the fact that Trump is an anti-candidate. That error is compounded because the poll does not highlight Trump’s fundamental desire to destroy the system but instead asks about Biden’s age.

          As I have written before, believing that most voters will walk into the polling booth in 2024 and vote only for “Biden vs Trump” is simplistic—and beneath the NYTimes and its expert pollsters. When WaPo/ABC published a poll that was subjected to nearly universal derision for its flaws, I wrote the following:

          The 2024 presidential election features two candidates who are surrogates for different visions of America: Democracy versus autocracy; liberty versus tyranny; dignity versus bigotry; science versus disinformation; personal autonomy versus subservience to Christian nationalism; sustainability versus ecological disaster; safety versus gun violence; global stability versus confrontational isolationism. All of that—and much more—is on the ballot in 2024. The WaPo/ABC “horse-race” poll captures none of that.

          Three more points and then I will stop paying attention to the polls (as I recommend).

          First, Dan Pfeiffer’s article in The Message Box on Substack explains why the NYTimes poll shows the path forward. See Dan Pfeiffer, How to Respond to the Very Bad NYT Poll. If you are worried about the poll and want more details, I highly recommend Dan’s article. Pertinent passages include the following about “double haters” who dislike both Biden and Trump:

Perhaps the simplest explanation of Biden’s political challenges is that he has done a lot of good, popular things, and almost no one knows about them. Navigator tested a series of messages about Biden’s various accomplishments, including allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug costs, the bipartisan law to rebuild roads and bridges, and efforts to create more manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Guess what? All of this stuff is super popular. Medicare negotiating drug prices is supported by 77% of Americans, including 64% of Republicans. The bipartisan infrastructure law has the support of 73% of Americans and a majority of Republicans. Every accomplishment tested in this poll had majority support. It’s hard to overstate how impressive that is in a deeply divided, highly polarized country at a time when the President’s approval ratings are in the low 40s. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news: according to the poll, a majority of Americans heard little or nothing about the accomplishments tested. There is a yawning knowledge gap. Now for more good news (think of this as a positive sandwich); the poll shows that when people are told about what Biden has done, his approval rating goes up. The voters most likely to move are the “Double Haters.”

          My penultimate point: The 2024 presidential election matters a lot. But so do congressional elections, gubernatorial elections, state legislative elections, municipal elections, and more. If—heaven forbid—Trump wins in 2024, a second Trump term with a Democratically controlled Congress is radically different than if Republicans control Congress. And states can be bulwarks of individual liberties if Republicans are able to pass national legislation. So, let’s not put every hope and aspiration into the presidential election. We should do everything we can to win up and down the ballot.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Although I did not intend to devote the entire newsletter to the NYTimes poll, I will stop here. We will be dealing with bad polls, handwringing, and negative press for the next year, so it is worth drawing a line in the sand and saying, “Enough!” The election is not over until it is over—notwithstanding the media’s best efforts to declare defeat a year in advance. And while I am criticizing the media, shame on the media for normalizing Trump as a legitimate political candidate. He is not.

          We will prevail over the long run, no matter what happens in 2024. (To be clear, I believe Biden will win re-election.) But if we have confidence that we will ultimately prevail, we can set aside the apocalyptic fears that we wrongly ascribe to a single election in 2024. We don’t need to panic over every poll.

The NYTimes poll reminds us that we have plenty of work to do in spreading the good news of Biden’s accomplishments. So, rather than needlessly fretting a year in advance about 2024, let’s recognize that we have a year to achieve

[Robert B. Hubbell Newsletter]

[alicewhimzy]

[alicewhimzy]

Good advice, courtesy of the first gold-digger I ever read about.

[alicewhimzy]

Across the dogverse idk

[alicewhimzy]

I used to watch Yu-Gi-Oh a lot way back when. I've been catching up on lots versions of it lately and even though I'm aware it's not perfect, season 0 or the original Japanese with english subs or the 4kids dub, I can still enjoy it.

I used an online translator, so forgive me if the hieroglyphs are inaccurate, but the poem in English is;

"Two minds two people

One body one soul

Forever reigning as one

The King of Games"

This took ages to complete. I love it! Enjoy!

(please don't tag as ship thanks)

🧩🔽🃏

[alicewhimzy]

One word. Orel.

https://m.youtube.com/shorts/pRL3F2mykbg

[alicewhimzy]

Couldn't finish this one in time for pride month, so I'm making up for it now! Happy Asexuality Day!

🖤🩶🤍💜

It's an upside-down cake. Because I wanted the purple to be on top.

And also ya know, upside-down? Like the opposite of... sexuality... Um...

I'll see myself out.

[alicewhimzy]

Agreed!

ideas for tumblr staff

dont remove the boop button

stop banning trans women for no reason

[alicewhimzy]

Reasons we need tumblr @staff to #bring back the boop:

🐾 Because it's a feature that encourages paw-sitive interaction.

🐾 Because not everyone knew about it until it was gone.

🐾 Because some of those who missed out want more pretty badges.

🐾 Because, for those who would get sick of it, it doesn't necessarily have to be permanent, just a week or so now and then. More than one day a year.

🐾 Because cats are cute.

🐾 Because we want to boop moar people!

Feel free to reblog with your own reasons why we need to #bring back the boop!

[alicewhimzy]

bring them back. more than one day. @staff

Bring back the boops

I only gave and received 3 boops, i didn't know the time was limited. Only when something disappears do you truly love it.

So I have a plan.

We need to bomBARD the staff and be them to bring it back. If I've learned anything from being on the internet, it's that if you act like a democracy and ask enough, you just might get what is desired.

For the boops

edit: uhhh how do you ask staff lmao

[alicewhimzy]

please, make sure to tell as many blogs about this poll as possible, or make your own. dont forget to @staff.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE! POWER TO THE PAWS! #BRING THE BOOP BACK!

[alicewhimzy]

yup

Reblog if you want the boops to be permannent in Tumblr.

[alicewhimzy]

NOOOOO!

this is for me and everybody else who missed out. 😭

#bring back the boop

@staff

[alicewhimzy]

ZOMG!😵 GUYS I WORKED SOOOOO HARD ON THESE!!!!!!!😱 I RLY HOPE U LIEK THEM😚 THKS!!!!!!!1!!🤩 I WUV YOU UWU!!!!!!!!?!??!!!1123™!!11?! 😁😁😁😁😁🤮😁😁😁😁

COMPLETELY👏ORIGINAL👏ART👏DONT👏STEAL!

ₕₐₚₚᵧ ᵦ𝒹ₐᵧ 𝓰ᵣᵢₘₐ𝒸ₑ

April Fools.

🤡