#Landslide Prediction

[little-p-eng-engineering]

The Importance of Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) Studies and What Problems It Can Solve

In today's rapidly advancing world of science and engineering, the need for accurate and efficient simulation tools has never been greater. One such tool that has gained significant prominence in recent years is Discrete Element Modeling (DEM). DEM is a numerical technique used to simulate the behavior of granular materials, such as powders, grains, and particles, on a microscale level. This modeling approach has proven to be invaluable in a wide range of industries, from pharmaceuticals to civil engineering. In this article, we will explore the importance of DEM studies and delve into the various problems it can solve, demonstrating its versatility and impact across diverse fields.

I. Understanding Discrete Element Modeling (DEM)

Before we dive into the importance of DEM studies, it's essential to grasp the fundamentals of Discrete Element Modeling itself. DEM is a computational technique that simulates the behavior of a large number of individual particles. Each particle is treated as a discrete entity and follows specific rules and interactions with other particles. These interactions are governed by various force laws, including contact forces, friction, and collision dynamics. By tracking the motion and interactions of these particles over time, DEM can provide valuable insights into the behavior of granular materials.

DEM Fundamentals

At the core of DEM lies the discrete nature of particles. Unlike continuum-based methods, DEM models materials as a collection of individual particles, each with its own properties and interactions. These particles move within a virtual space and collide with one another, creating complex dynamics that mirror real-world granular materials.

The essential components of a DEM simulation include:

Particles: These represent the individual grains or particles within the material.

Interactions: DEM defines the rules governing how particles interact with each other, including contact forces, friction, and restitution coefficients.

Time Integration: DEM calculates the motion of particles over discrete time steps, accounting for forces and interactions at each step.

Boundaries and Constraints: The simulation environment often includes boundaries and constraints to model specific scenarios accurately.

DEM Applications

The versatility of DEM has led to its adoption in various fields and industries. Some notable applications of DEM include:

Geotechnical Engineering: DEM is used to study soil mechanics, soil-structure interactions, and landslide prediction.

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing: DEM helps optimize drug formulation, tablet compression, and powder flow in pharmaceutical processes.

Mining and Minerals Processing: DEM is employed to understand the behavior of ore materials during crushing, grinding, and transport.

Food Processing: DEM studies can improve the design of food processing equipment and optimize the handling of food particles.

Civil Engineering: DEM is applied to simulate granular materials in construction, such as concrete mixing and soil compaction.

Powder Technology: In industries like powder metallurgy and ceramics, DEM assists in optimizing powder compaction and sintering processes.

Now that we have a fundamental understanding of DEM, let's explore the significance of DEM studies and the diverse range of problems it can solve across these industries.

II. The Importance of DEM Studies

DEM studies have become increasingly important in various fields, offering valuable insights, solutions, and advancements. Here, we will delve into the significance of DEM studies by examining the critical problems it addresses across industries.

Geotechnical Engineering

a. Soil Mechanics

In geotechnical engineering, understanding the behavior of soils is paramount for infrastructure design and construction. DEM studies provide insights into soil mechanics by simulating the interaction between soil particles under various loading conditions. This allows engineers to predict soil settlement, shear strength, and bearing capacity, all of which are crucial for designing stable foundations for buildings, bridges, and other structures.

b. Landslide Prediction

Landslides pose a significant threat in hilly and mountainous regions. DEM can simulate the movement of soil and rocks on slopes, aiding in landslide prediction and risk assessment. By analyzing factors like particle size, shape, and cohesion, DEM models can help identify areas prone to landslides and develop mitigation strategies.

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

a. Tablet Compression

In the pharmaceutical industry, tablet compression is a critical process in drug manufacturing. DEM studies help optimize tablet formulation by simulating the compaction of powder blends. By varying particle properties and compaction conditions, researchers can predict tablet properties like hardness, friability, and dissolution rate, leading to improved drug formulations and reduced development costs.

b. Powder Flow and Mixing

Powder flow and mixing are crucial steps in pharmaceutical manufacturing. DEM models can simulate the flow of powders through equipment like hoppers, silos, and blenders. This enables the identification of potential flow problems, such as segregation or arching, and the design of equipment modifications to enhance powder handling and mixing efficiency.

Mining and Minerals Processing

a. Crushing and Grinding

In mining and minerals processing, the efficient comminution of ore materials is essential for resource extraction. DEM studies simulate the crushing and grinding of ore particles in crushers and mills, allowing engineers to optimize equipment design and operating conditions. This leads to improved energy efficiency and increased mineral recovery rates.

b. Material Handling

The transport of bulk materials within mining and processing facilities can be challenging. DEM helps analyze conveyor belt behavior, chute design, and transfer point performance. By studying particle trajectories and interaction forces, engineers can minimize material spillage, dust generation, and equipment wear, ultimately reducing operational costs.

Food Processing

a. Mixing and Blending

In the food processing industry, achieving uniform mixing and blending of ingredients is critical for product quality. DEM simulations of mixing processes help optimize equipment design and operating parameters. By visualizing particle distribution and movement, manufacturers can ensure consistent product quality and reduce waste.

b. Powder Handling

Powder handling in the food industry can be complex due to the diverse properties of food powders. DEM studies assist in designing equipment such as pneumatic conveyors and feeders. By predicting powder flow behavior and potential issues like segregation, DEM helps ensure the efficient and hygienic handling of food ingredients.

Civil Engineering

a. Concrete Mixing and Placement

In civil engineering, the proper mixing and placement of concrete are essential for constructing durable structures. DEM can model the behavior of concrete constituents, such as aggregates and cement particles, during mixing and placement processes. This allows engineers to optimize concrete mix designs and construction techniques, leading to improved performance and longevity of concrete structures.

b. Soil Compaction

Achieving adequate soil compaction is crucial for road construction, embankment construction, and foundation preparation. DEM simulations can replicate the compaction process, considering factors like soil particle properties, compactor geometry, and dynamic loading. Engineers can use DEM to optimize compaction equipment and procedures, ensuring the desired level of soil compaction is achieved.

III. Challenges and Advances in DEM Studies

While DEM has proven to be a valuable tool in addressing various problems, it is not without its challenges and limitations. Researchers continue to work on improving DEM techniques and expanding their capabilities. Let's explore some of the challenges and recent advances in DEM studies:

Computational Intensity

DEM simulations involving a large number of particles can be computationally intensive and time-consuming. To address this challenge, researchers have developed parallel algorithms and utilized high-performance computing clusters to accelerate simulations. Additionally, advancements in graphics processing units (GPUs) have significantly improved the efficiency of DEM simulations.

Particle-Particle Interactions

Accurately modeling complex particle-particle interactions, including adhesive forces and agglomeration, remains a challenge in DEM. Recent research has focused on refining contact models to better capture these interactions, allowing for more realistic simulations of cohesive and adhesive materials.

Scale-Up and Scale-Down

Scaling DEM simulations from laboratory-scale experiments to real-world applications can be challenging due to differences in length and time scales. Researchers are developing multiscale modeling approaches to bridge this gap, enabling more accurate predictions in practical engineering applications.

Integration with Other Simulation Techniques

In some cases, it is necessary to combine DEM with other simulation techniques, such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) or Finite Element Analysis (FEA), to study complex multiphysics problems. Integrating DEM with these techniques and developing robust coupling methods are active areas of research.

Calibration and Validation

Calibrating DEM models to match real-world behavior and validating simulations against experimental data are crucial for model accuracy. Researchers are developing techniques for parameter calibration and validation, including advanced imaging and tracking technologies for particle characterization.

GPU Acceleration and Cloud Computing

As computing power continues to advance, the use of GPUs and cloud computing resources has become more accessible for DEM simulations. These technologies enable researchers and engineers to perform more extensive and detailed simulations, opening new possibilities for problem-solving and optimization.

Machine Learning and AI Integration

The integration of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) with DEM is a promising avenue for advancing the field. These techniques can aid in data analysis, model parameterization, and real-time decision-making in DEM simulations.

IV. Conclusion

Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) has emerged as a powerful and versatile tool for simulating the behavior of granular materials in various industries. Its ability to address critical problems in geotechnical engineering, pharmaceutical manufacturing, mining, food processing, and civil engineering has led to its widespread adoption and continued development.

DEM studies have provided engineers and researchers with valuable insights into the behavior of granular materials, enabling them to optimize processes, design equipment, and make informed decisions. Despite its challenges, ongoing advancements in computational methods, particle interactions, and multiscale modeling are expanding the capabilities of DEM and enhancing its accuracy.

As industries continue to evolve and face new challenges, DEM will likely play an increasingly vital role in solving complex problems and driving innovation. Its integration with emerging technologies like machine learning and AI holds promise for further enhancing its capabilities and broadening its application areas.

In conclusion, Discrete Element Modeling stands as a testament to the power of computational simulations in shaping the future of science and engineering. Its importance in solving real-world problems cannot be overstated, and its continued development promises to revolutionize the way we understand and manipulate granular materials in the years to come.

V. The Capabilities of Newton DEM Software

In the realm of Discrete Element Modeling (DEM), the choice of software is paramount to achieving accurate and insightful simulations. One software package that has gained recognition for its capabilities and versatility in solving complex granular material problems is Newton DEM Software. In this section, we will explore the unique features and advantages that Newton DEM Software offers in the context of DEM studies.

High-Performance Simulations

Newton DEM Software is renowned for its high-performance capabilities. It leverages advanced algorithms and efficient parallel processing to handle simulations involving a vast number of particles seamlessly. This makes it suitable for tackling large-scale industrial problems, such as those encountered in mining, pharmaceuticals, and construction.

Comprehensive Material Models

One of the standout features of Newton DEM Software is its extensive library of material models. It provides users with the flexibility to simulate a wide range of granular materials, including various shapes, sizes, and properties. This enables researchers and engineers to model materials accurately, whether they are dealing with cohesive powders, irregularly shaped particles, or even mixtures of different materials.

Advanced Contact Mechanics

Accurate modeling of particle-particle interactions is crucial for DEM simulations. Newton DEM Software employs advanced contact mechanics algorithms to precisely capture complex interactions, such as rolling, sliding, and friction. Additionally, it allows users to define custom contact models, ensuring that simulations closely mirror real-world behavior.

Multiscale Modeling Capabilities

Newton DEM Software recognizes the importance of bridging the gap between laboratory-scale experiments and practical engineering applications. It offers multiscale modeling capabilities that enable users to perform simulations at various length and time scales. This flexibility is particularly valuable when dealing with materials that exhibit different behaviors under different conditions.

Coupling with Other Simulation Techniques

Many real-world problems require a multiphysics approach, combining DEM with other simulation techniques like Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) or Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Newton DEM Software supports seamless coupling with these techniques, allowing users to investigate complex interactions between granular materials and fluid flows or structural elements.

User-Friendly Interface

Usability is a key consideration in software tools, and Newton DEM Software excels in this regard. Its user-friendly interface streamlines the simulation setup and visualization processes, making it accessible to both seasoned researchers and newcomers to DEM. The software provides an intuitive environment for defining particle properties, boundary conditions, and analysis parameters.

Visualization and Data Analysis

Newton DEM Software offers robust visualization and data analysis tools. Users can visualize simulation results in real-time, enabling immediate insights into particle behavior. Additionally, the software provides tools for post-processing and data analysis, allowing users to extract valuable information from their simulations and make informed decisions.

Integration with Machine Learning and AI

To stay at the forefront of technological advancements, Newton DEM Software has embraced the integration of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI). Users can leverage these capabilities to enhance their DEM simulations, from automating parameter tuning to making real-time predictions based on simulation data.

Scalability and Cloud Computing

Recognizing the growing demand for scalability and accessibility, Newton DEM Software is compatible with cloud computing platforms. This facilitates the execution of resource-intensive simulations on remote clusters, reducing computational bottlenecks and accelerating research and development efforts.

Comprehensive Support and Training

Effective use of DEM software requires proper training and support. Newton DEM Software provides comprehensive training materials, documentation, and customer support to assist users at every stage of their simulations. This ensures that users can leverage the full potential of the software and achieve meaningful results.

Incorporating Newton DEM Software into DEM studies enhances the capabilities of researchers and engineers, enabling them to tackle increasingly complex granular material problems across a spectrum of industries. Its combination of high-performance simulations, advanced contact mechanics, multiscale modeling, and integration with other simulation techniques makes it a valuable asset for those seeking to push the boundaries of DEM.

In conclusion, the capabilities of Newton DEM Software exemplify the ongoing evolution of computational tools in solving real-world problems. Its user-friendly interface, extensive material models, and support for multiscale modeling and coupling with other simulation techniques empower researchers and engineers to explore the behavior of granular materials with unparalleled accuracy and efficiency. As industries continue to advance, Newton DEM Software stands as a reliable and indispensable tool in the realm of Discrete Element Modeling.

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Little P.Eng. for Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) Services: Unveiling the Power of Simulation

Little P.Eng. for Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) Services

Tags:

Artificial Intelligence

Discrete Element Modeling

Mixing

Geotechnical Engineering

Granular Materials

DEM Studies

Simulation

Particle Interaction

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing

Mining

Food Processing

Civil Engineering

Soil Mechanics

Landslide Prediction

Tablet Compression

Powder Flow

Crushing

Material Handling

Concrete Mixing

Soil Compaction

Computational Intensity

Particle-Particle Interactions

Multiscale Modeling

Machine Learning

GPU Acceleration

High-Performance Computing

Newton DEM Software

Contact Mechanics

Cloud Computing

Validation

Bulk Material Handling & Processing

Engineering Services

Located in Calgary, Alberta; Vancouver, BC; Toronto, Ontario; Edmonton, Alberta; Houston Texas; Torrance, California; El Segundo, CA; Manhattan Beach, CA; Concord, CA; We offer our engineering consultancy services across Canada and United States. Meena Rezkallah.

[megpricephotography]

Beach Boy! Barney, jumping for joy during a trip to the beach in July of 2012.

[gachapulls]

and i still think jason would die again

[brothermouse-skeleton]

Prediction for the future of Roshar:

Jasnah, realizing that her whole family got *problems* and shouldn't be running anything bigger than a dollar general decides to abolish the monarchy and establish a democracy.

Kaladin becomes the favorite front runner candidate for president. He does not want this. He is not actively campaigning. Adolin and Shallan are making and putting up flyers supporting him without his knowledge. They have slogans like "Face the uncertain future with STORMFACE", and "The High Marshal is My Marshal!".

Wit appoints himself as Kaladin's campaign manager. He spends all day pointedly avoiding doing this job.

To his dismay, Kaladin wins in a landslide. His inauguration speech, which he did not plan beforehand, goes down as one of the most inspiring speeches ever. He was just trying to insult some lighteyes.

His first act as president is to institute a national soup day. He never attends.

[libraryofloveletters]

Chapter One: United Front

Jenson Button x Teammate!Fem!Reader

Warnings: new teams, friendships are being built and brought down at the same time, jenson is a bit unsure how to feel now that the spotlight isn't on him, jealously, championship fights are coming from inside the house, so many feelings, the basis of the story is being built here, the initial sweetness wears off.

Word Count: 2,520

Author's Note: welcome to the new series! I promise I will try to be consistent, I'm excited to see what's in store.

Bound By Fate Masterlist

--

Young and naive; the headline that covered all the front pages from the moment you stepped foot on track.

You, y/n l/n, were all but 22 years old when you had your Formula One debut. Mclaren had been good to you, Ron was more than happy to have you on the team - young, fresh talent, no one does it like you.

The first year had been painstakingly hard, it was a big jump from test driving. A fuck up on a closed track doesn't have a much of an impact as one on a full, live track with thousands of people watching. It took you a few tries - Australia, Malaysia, China, Bahrain and Spain before you found yourself in sunny Monaco.

Your first points, your first podium finish. It was insane to think you managed to get your first points and podium on the same day.

That was the day you knew you were doing what you were supposed to be doing. That you did deserve your spot there and you were going to do everything in your power to prove to everyone that you were worthy of it.

You proved your worth, despite getting a late start on your point scoring, you managed to rack up 73 points over the course of the season. By the end of it, you were all but 4 points short of the championship podium. Speaking of championships, you remember the day as if it was yesterday.

The rain brought a sense of excitement with a tiny bit of fear. You and Lewis were starting P6 and P7 and the current championship contender, Jenson Button was in P12. All he needed to do was score 5 points, needing to move up from P12 to P4. He didn't do it coming in one place short but still winning the championship by a landslide, washing Sebastian and his own teammate, Rubens, out.

When the news broke that Jenson would be moving to Mclaren, you felt every emotion possible; happy, sad, nervous, scared, calm.

You had no idea what you were in for, unsure if you two were going to get along or if he'd be an arrogant stuck up prick. Up until that point, you had very minimal contact with Jenson. A hi and hello in passing, a chat at press conferences; you weren't part of the inside jokes or the hang outs, you were there to race and that was that.

It took only the pre season and before you knew it, the two of you clicked like the last two pieces of a puzzle.

"When your drivers get along, it's easier to work, to fight for wins, for championships." Jenson read the quote from Ron, a bass added to his voice as he paced the length of your hotel room. The two of you had returned from dinner not too long ago; a post podium tradition you've built in a short time.

"He'd be pissed if he heard you," you tell him, sitting cross legged on the bed. Jenson shrugs, tossing the newspaper he picked up from the lobby onto the nightstand, flopping down next to you.

"Oh well," Jenson tells you, looking over at you. "Good job today, I don't think I told you."

You two had come in P1 and P2, Jenson taking second place as he's done the last 3 races.

"Yeah, thanks." You smiled, "you did well too."

The two of you had been in contention for the championship all season, fighting for P1 and P2 back to back all season. This was your second season as teammates and you were having a better run than the first time. The first season, you were close, right behind Sebastian and Mark; you in P4 and Jenson in P3.

It was a year of dominance for McLaren, for you and for Jenson.

Despite what the reporters were predicting, you and Jenson were as close as always, nothing but 4 single points separating the two of you.

4 points was all that separated the two McLaren drivers going into the summer break, you in P1 and Jenson in P2. You had one more race before the break, a chance for Jenson to push himself into the first place spot for the break.

You weren't giving in.

Friends or not, you had cemented yourself in the P1. You belonged there, you worked too hard to let it go. You'd do anything to make sure you stayed there, playing dirty if need be.

--

You and Jenson find yourself sitting apart from each other, Sebastian and Fernando between the two of you. There's a sea of reporters in front of the 4 of you; the 4 drivers in the first 4 slots of the championship.

All but a few points keeping all of you apart, it really was anyone's game at this point.

The first reporter speaks, starting the questioning. "Jenson, as we head into the summer break, do you feel confident that you can secure those 4 points and ultimately beat your teammate in the standings?"

Jenson chuckles, glancing over at you. "It's possible, 4 points isn't a lot but knowing y/n, she's going to put up one hell of a fight."

You smiled at his response, nodding. Sebastian chuckles, nudging you with his shoulder. He knew you just as well as Jenson did, the two of you have had it out on track. You gave it your all every race, you didn't have anything to lose.

The same reporter added another question but directed to you now. "Y/N, with the upcoming race this weekend, do you plan to give Jenson a bit of a break and let him secure those 4 points, or will you be pushing hard to keep your position ahead of him?"

You picked up the mic, "why should I give him a break? I know we're teammates but we're not fighting for the good of the team, we're both in contention as of right now. Both Jenson and myself are here to win, a win is a win. I know Jenson wouldn't give me a break, so I'm not planning on giving him one."

The reporters seem to be eating up the answers from both you and Jenson, the spotlights were on you two. There's a few more questions being asked.

You and Jenson are the picture of perfect teammates, or at least, that's what you want everyone to believe. On the surface, you're both laughing, exchanging inside jokes, and giving off all the right signals of camaraderie. But beneath the surface, something's shifting; something neither of them seems to notice yet.

Small moments linger too long, words are said with just a touch more edge, and there's a tension in the air that no one can quite put a finger on. The rest of the room feels it, though, the subtle cracks beginning to show, the invisible divide growing wider with each passing moment.

It’s only a matter of time before it all comes to a head, and when it does, no one will be able to pretend it was ever fine.

Dismissed from the press conference, you find yourself prepping for the race, going  through your usual routine. You get dressed, pull your hair back into a braid and you get yourself hyped for the race and always, you wait for Jenson, the two of you heading to the grid together.

P3 for you and P2 for Jenson. Sebastian was on pole with Fernando in P4 along with the rest of the cars lined up behind you.

It was windy and grey, you looked up at the sky, trying to see if the rain would come down. Your engineer, Mac, tells you not to worry about the weather. If need be, you'll pull in and switch to wets.

You didn't like this.

There’s a gnawing feeling in the back of your mind, your stomach twisted in on itself. A sense that something’s off, but you can’t put your finger on it. Everything looks fine on the surface, but there's something about the way the air feels thick.

You can’t shake the sense that something is about to go wrong. You just don’t know what or how.

It’s like waiting for a storm you know is coming but can’t quite see. The feeling lingers, heavy, and all you can do is wait for the shoe to drop, knowing it’s only a matter of time.

You look up at the sky once more, the grey clouds rolling in over the Hungaroring, you can't help the unsettling feeling that's creeping up on you.

There's a hand on your shoulder, bringing you back to the present. Jenson stood in front of you with a cheeky smile, "taken up bird watching, y/n?" He asks.

"Shut up," you huffed, smiling at him with your arms folded over your chest. "Ready?"

"As I'll ever be."

"Good luck." You smiled and Jenson returned the smile. "Yeah, you too."

You put your helmet on, getting into the car. Last minute checks to make sure comms were working and everything was in order. You go over weather changes and the plan with Mac once more before he pats your head, giving your shoulder a squeeze and the grid clears off.

You couldn't shake the feeling of impending doom. One last look up at the grey clouds, the fans standing around with umbrellas and ponchos in case of the rain. Your focus on the lights ahead.

3..

2..

1..

Lights out.

It’s been a tough race, the kind that keeps you on the edge of your seat. The three of you, fighting tooth and nail for P1, constantly swapping positions. Every lap felt like a high-speed chase between you, Jenson, and Sebastian. You had the advantage at some points, then Jenson would slip past, and Sebastian was always lurking, waiting for any opening.

The intensity of it was like nothing else, the tension thick with every corner.

Just as the race was reaching its peak, the skies darkened. What had been a perfect, dry track quickly turned into an unpredictable nightmare.

The rain began to fall, light at first, then harder, turning the surface into a slip and slide. Drivers were forced to change, and the pace slowed dramatically. Every move became a calculated risk, and tire management was now as crucial as ever.

With the rain coming down harder, the decision was made: time to pit for wets. The pit crews were ready, and as you peeled off into the pit lane, the world outside seemed to blur. Tires were changed quickly, but it was a crucial moment, getting it wrong could cost you.

When you rejoined, the race was no longer about who was fastest, but who could keep their cool as conditions got difficult.

In the end, it was Sebastian who managed to hold on, keeping P1 until the checkered flag waved. You pushed hard for that last minute move, and came in just behind him to secure P2. Jenson held his ground, taking P3, making it a tight top three right to the finish.

Despite not getting the win today, the results put you in a good spot.

With that P2 finish, you still managed to maintain your lead in the championship standings, staying ahead of Jenson and Sebastian as the midseason break rolled in.

It’s a small gap, but it’s enough.

You head into the break in P1, with the knowledge that you’ve got what it takes to hold onto the top spot. The competition is strong, but the battle is far from over. Every point counts, and you’ve just set the stage for what promises to be a hectic and messy second half of the season.

You all stand together for the photos at the top of the podium, the bright flashes of cameras filling the air. There’s something different about Jenson.

You can feel it, a subtle coldness coming from him, a distance that wasn’t there before. As you glance his way, you catch his eye for a split second, but instead of him acknowledging it, he quickly turns to speak to Sebastian, his attention fully on the German.

The moment is brief, but it leaves a strange feeling lingering.

You tell yourself it’s probably nothing, just the exhaustion from such an intense race. Emotions run high after a race like that, and maybe the tension is just getting to everyone. You try to brush it off, chalking it up to the pressure of the day, the fatigue that comes with giving it everything on track. But even as the photos continue and the celebrations roll on, you can’t help but wonder if something's changed.

The 3 of you together for a photo, covered in confetti, champagne and rain, there are smiles on your faces, your arm around Seb, bottle of champagne in your free hand. Jenson's focus is on Sebastian, he doesn't even so much as look at you.

After the podium, you head straight to the press pen, where interviews are lined up and the usual buzz of reporters fills the air. You and Jenson are across from each other, each doing separate interviews, the distance between you both oddly noticeable now, the tension from before the race smothering everyone in its vicinity.

The reporter in front of you smiles and asks, “How’s everything going? How are you feeling after today’s race?”

You nod, trying to keep things positive, even if there's a strange weight hanging in the air. "I’m good," you say, smiling. "Happy with the points, happy for the team. A double podium is a good result, and we’ll take it."

Meanwhile across the pen, Jenson’s interview seems to take a different turn. When Jenson was asked about his race, he didn't hold back.

“I wish I’d been P1," he says bluntly. "But I’m focused on the bigger picture. The championship is what matters. What other drivers get in the standings? Doesn’t make a difference to me.”

The reporters picking up on the contrast, turn back to him. “Y/N had some nice things to say about your drive today," one of them says.

Jenson barely looks up, his response flat. "I’m sure she did," he mutters, brushing it off without a second thought.

It’s a small moment, but the tension in the air is palpable. Everyone in the room feels it, the growing divide between you and Jenson.

Somehow, you’re the only one who doesn’t see it. For you, it’s just another race, another round of interviews. The contrast between the two of you couldn’t be more apparent.

You, still smiling, still positive, unaware of the ice that’s slowly creeping into Jenson’s tone. You had no idea what was brewing just beneath the surface. You hadn’t picked up on the subtle shift; the small moments when Jenson used to smile at your jokes, the times he’d offer advice after races, the camaraderie you thought you shared.

Now, it was like you were looking at a stranger.

But it’s clear to everyone else that something’s shifting, and the cracks are starting to show.

---

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see the masterlist to add yourself to the taglist!

[reasonsforhope]

Since the 1960s, the world has seen a spike in the number of natural disasters, largely due to rising sea levels and an ever gradually increasing global surface temperature.

The good news? We’re getting better at helping each other when disasters strike.

According to a recent study from Our World In Data, the global toll from natural disasters has dramatically dropped in the last century.

“Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are,” wrote lead authors Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado.

To conduct their research, Ritchie and Rosado gathered data from all geophysical, meteorological, and climate-related disasters since 1900. That includes earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, drought, wildfires, severe storms, and mass floods. 

In the early-to-mid 20th century, the average annual death toll from disasters was very high, often climbing to over a million. 

For example, the study cites that in 1931, 2.7 million people died from the Yangtze–Huai River floods. In 1943, 1.9 million died from the Bangladeshi famine of 1943. Even low-frequency events had extreme death tolls. 

“In recent decades we have seen a substantial decline in deaths,” Ritchie and Rosado observed. “Even in peak years with high-impact events, the death toll has not exceeded 500,000 since the mid-1960s.”

Why has the global death toll from disasters dropped? 

There are a number of factors at play in the improvement of disaster aid, but the leading component is that human beings are getting better at predicting and preparing for natural disasters. 

“We know from historical data that the world has seen a significant reduction in disaster deaths through earlier prediction, more resilient infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response systems,” Ritchie and Rosado explained in their study. 

On April 6, [2024],a 7.2 magnitude earthquake rocked the city of Hualien in Taiwan. Days later, as search and rescue continues, the death toll currently rests at 16. 

Experts have praised Taiwan for their speedy response and recovery, and attributed the low death toll to the measures that Taiwan implemented after an earthquake of similar strength hit the city 25 years earlier. Sadly, on that day in 1999, 2,400 people died and 11,000 were injured. 

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Wang Yu — assistant professor at National Taiwan University — said that event, known as the Chi-Chi earthquake, revolutionized the way Taiwan approached natural disasters. 

“There were lots of lessons we learned, including the improvement of building codes, understanding earthquake warning signs, the development and implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems and earthquake education,” said Wang. 

Those same sensors and monitoring systems allowed authorities to create “shakemaps” during Hualien’s latest earthquake, which helped them direct rescue teams to the regions that were hit the hardest. 

This, in conjunction with stronger building codes, regular earthquake drills, and public education campaigns, played a huge role in reducing the number of deaths from the event. 

And Taiwan’s safeguards on April 6 are just one example of recent measures against disasters. Similar models in strengthening prediction, preparedness, and recovery time have been employed around the world when it comes to rescuing victims of floods, wildfires, tornados, and so on. 

What else can we learn from this study?

When concluding the findings from their study, Ritchie and Rosado emphasized the importance of increasing safety measures for everyone.

Currently, there is still a divide between populations with high gross national income and populations living in extreme poverty.

Even low-income countries that infrequently have natural disasters have a much higher death rate  because they are vulnerable to collapse, displacement, and disrepair. 

“Those at low incomes are often the most vulnerable to disaster events; improving living standards, infrastructure, and response systems in these regions will be key to preventing deaths from natural disasters in the coming decades,” surmised Ritchie and Rosado.

“Overall development, poverty alleviation, and knowledge-sharing of how to increase resilience to natural disasters will therefore be key to reducing the toll of disasters in the decades to come."

-via GoodGoodGood, April 11, 2024

[knightjpg]

landslide | chapter 4

chapter tags: alcohol mention, reader has a toxic boyfriend, implied cheating on reader by said boyfriend

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You dream of the ocean. 

Blue against blue, hot dry sand between your toes. The aftermath of salt under your tongue. You're swimming. You look, feet kicking, hands paddling, but there's no shore to break your line of sight. The horizon stretches until it fades, a blurry blue line as vast as the world. 

You don't feel afraid. You're just tired. Your arms and legs feel so heavy, and the water feels heavy, too. Waves are coming faster, weightier; you dip below and break through the surface— 

until you're pulled under. 

Buried alive under big heaving wells, swallowed down by surface gravity. You claw against the water, desperate, fighting for air— 

and cough yourself awake. Your chest hurts, tight with the remnants of your nightmare, and for a split second you feel panic when a weight presses on you; but it's just Kettlebell who curled up on top of you somewhere during the night. 

Upon feeling your hand in his fur his head lifts, big dark eyes blinking hello. Then he yawns and hops off you. Now that you're awake his job is done, and he can go annoy Mim in peace. 

When you swing your legs over your bed you groan, pressing a hand to your forehead. Your temple throbs, occasional pinpricks of pain shooting like stars over your eyes. 

Last night comes back to you slowly. 

The bar, the too-many drinks, no sight of Dave. The kind stranger who listened to your blubbering about your boyfriend. 

Hot shame rushes through you now that you recall your words in the wondrous, headache-inducing light of sobriety. God. You totally unloaded on a guy you'd never met before and then he... 

He called you a cab, didn't he? And made sure you were sent home. 

You bury your head in your hands and mouth the words what on earth is wrong with me. 

The mortification is enough to eat you alive. You vow you'll never let it get that far again—with alcohol or waiting for Dave that long. Speaking of which... 

You raise your head and grab for your phone. Predictably there's an apologetic text from Dave waiting for you: 

01:24 Srry missed your calls, smthing came up with a friend x 

You stare at the screen for a long moment. 

Slowly, like your fingers haven't quite made up their mind yet about replying, you type out an answer. 

08:50 I waited a long time for you. 

You chew your lip as you send it, feeling anxious and small. When Kettlebell returns to the bed to let you know his and Mim's food bowls are still offensively empty, you shake yourself out of it and go through the motions of your morning routine.  

Before you hop in the shower, however, you can't resist another peek: 

09:22 Make it up to you? 

You exhale.  

See? He doesn't say it explicitly, but he's sorry. He'll make it up to you. He cares about you.  

Life happens, things get in the way. You have to believe that. What is a relationship if you can't trust your partner? 

What is a relationship if not the feeling of throwing yourself off the tightrope and waiting for the other to catch you mid-fall? 

“Wear the sluttiest one you have,” Liv says. Her voice crackles on speakerphone; her face is out of frame on the video call, bending down to apply her eyeliner. 

You laugh. “The sluttiest—? God, I don't know if I even have anything like that.” 

You sift through your clothes again, slowly, pulling out one or two things that might make the cut. It's been a while since you've gone out with just friends, just for fun, just for yourself. 

Without Dave. 

He hasn't made good on his promise to make it up to you yet—says that with his holiday coming up he's extra busy, has to make sure things don't fall apart once he leaves. 

The reminder of the stupid Bora-Bora trip with his stupid marketing colleague has been enough to leave you on edge.  

And while you don't think Liv and you will ever become best friends she's been kind. When you texted her in a fit of tears about Dave flaking on you again you expected excuses for his sake— 

You're so lucky! 

—but instead she called him a cunt and said you should join her and some others to go dancing. Shake your ass and make him regret on losing out on time with you, she'd said, and even though it's not your thing you agreed. 

If only to feel like you could. 

“Wait, what's that one? The black one?” Liv peers into the camera. One eye is perfectly made up, smoky dark eyeshadow contouring an arched, pencilled-in brow. 

“This one?” You pull the dress off its hanger and hold it up for the camera to see. 

It was an impulse buy. On sale. The fabric felt soft and stretchy, and even though you could see your panties in the changing booth mirror when you bent down you loved the look of it too much to leave it. 

You'd just started dating Dave. You remember you were still feeling giddy and excited with that nervous kind of confidence that made you blush and smile and think maybe I'll wear it for him one time. 

It's been gathering dust in the back of your closet ever since. 

“Yesss,” Liv says. “That's what I'm talking about.” 

When she goes back to her make-up table you hold the dress up in front of the mirror. 

It doesn't feel like you. 

It feels like the person you once really wished you were, and even that wishful optimism is no longer part of your repertoire. 

You turn around. “Hey, do you think—” 

Your phone buzzes, covering Liv's face with a popup that says in big white letters incoming call! 

You grab it quickly, throwing your dress on the bed. “Hang on, someone's calling—” 

With one swipe Liv disappears, and you hold the phone to hold to your ear. Unknown number.  

“Hello?” 

“Simon.” 

“Nice to finally meet you,” you smile, and shake the massive hand held out to you. Simon runs warm; his grip is firm and brief. “I, um. I heard about your mother passing. From Beth. I'm so sorry.” 

He averts his eyes for a moment. They're a lovely warm shade of brown, starkly contrasted against his pale skin and blond lashes. Up close you see shadows of nicks and scars. Souvenirs from his work. 

“Thanks.” 

He hardly says another word all evening. At times it feels more like he's watching over rather than participating in your little party of friends gathered at Tommy and Beth's apartment; a hulking shadow brooding in the corner, shying away from the inner circle of light and laughter. 

It'd be easy to forget he was there, but you don't. 

You're a little fascinated by him. If Beth is like your sister, what does that make him? Family by-proxy-by-proxy. You've heard enough about him to decide he's got a good heart underneath his withdrawn demeanour, and it makes you eager to forgive what others might see as rudeness. 

You sneak looks all throughout the get-together, in between board games and salty snacks and bad jokes. Try to map his heavy brow, his serious gaze, the scar running over his chin that mirrors the one Tommy has on the back of his neck. 

After the first few times you chalk it up to coincidence. But when you look again, again—those brown eyes meet yours. It confirms: 

Simon's been looking at you, too. 

“I don't understand,” you say. 

You're not convinced this isn't a prank call. No, worse—a scam. Even when “John” reads out Joseph's place, date, and time of birth—even when he could tell you Beth's middle name or Tommy's last place of work. 

There's just no way. 

“Just... after eight years? Isn't that a crazy long time...?” 

A begrudging pause. “I can't tell you everything, sweetheart. Confidential. You understand.” 

You try to. Simon left you something, John said. Wouldn't say what. Couldn't say how. But it's for you, if you want it, just making sure— 

Of course you want it, you tell him. You have a P.O. box, he can send it anytime— 

“It was requested you receive it in person,” John says. “On base.” Paper is shuffled and shifted in the background. Faintly you hear a door open and close. “There's one not too far from your address.” 

“John” gives you the directions, and a quick google shows that he's not lying; there really is a base close by, and it fits John's description. 

“Okay. Um... Do I need to bring anything?” 

“Your ID should do.” John clears his throat. “I'll have one of mine handle it. Mention my name—John, Captain Price, whatever you like—and they'll sort you out.” 

“Alright. Thank you...” 

You end the call feeling dazed. Tonight was supposed to be for letting go of everything, for living in the now, in the moment—and suddenly the past comes knocking at your door. 

The anxiety returns like a wave crashing on your shore. 

You should be over this by now. It's been so many years. You've cycled through all of grief's vicious stages, and the sadness and loss has dulled to the point you don't think of it anymore every day. And even then—it was Beth who was your best friend, Beth who you cried for the hardest. Not Simon. Simon was— 

(family by-proxy-by-proxy) 

—special. 

But him leaving you something behind shouldn't be enough to derail the peace you've clawed out for yourself. 

Right? 

You tell Liv it was a family thing when she asks, but she's concerned, says you look pale; “Are you sure you're up for going, babe?” 

You open your mouth to say yes. 

Before you can, though, a notification pops up. It's Dave. You told him you were going out earlier today and received no response—more and more often these days, you remember thinking—and shrugged. Put it out of your mind. 

You open the text. 

Oh I was thinking we do chinese tonight and a movie marathon 

You bite your lip, hard. Text back, Sorry, maybe some other time? 

He's not usually one to respond so quickly, but the three dots pop up before you're even done typing. 

We can go out together sometime 

Just call and cancel 

I'll get your fav <3 

—you crumble. 

It's pathetic, but right now all you want is someone's arms to bury yourself into and to cry on a familiar shoulder. To not be alone in a crowd of strangers with girls that you don't know very well. 

You take a shuddering breath and try for your best apologetic smile. “Liv? Sorry. Um—I think the family call thing got me a little harder than I thought.”  

How do you explain what Simon was to you? What Beth and her family were to you? 

“I'm really sorry for flaking on you suddenly, but is it okay if I go with you next time?” 

“Of course, babe,” Liv rushes to assure you. “Take it easy, okay? You really don't look so good. We can go out dancing anytime—I'll add you to the groupchat.” 

“Thanks. Have fun,” you tell her, and she says she will before the screen goes dark. 

With trembling hands, you press the call button. 

“Um, sorry. Am I in the way?” 

“Not at all.” The guy before you flashes you an easy smile. “Want one too?” 

You nod yes, and watch him pour you your drink. He has nice hands; slender, nails neatly trimmed, a plain watch around his wrist. 

“I'm Dave,” he says as he hands you your drink. You accept with a smile and offer your own name, and go through the usual so what do you do for work, who do you know here, did you come with a friend, what food did you bring to the potluck? 

“Er,” he says a little sheepishly, “just drinks, I'm afraid. I can't cook to save my life.” 

“It's not so hard once you get started. They've got these food delivery boxes now, where you just get everything you need for a meal.” 

“Ah, I want to, but. You know.” Dave gestures with his hand. “Work keeps me so busy when I get home all I want to do is pass out.” 

You give him a sympathetic smile. You know that feeling too, all too well. “So that's why you're here, huh?” you joke. “To eat your fill and then leave before the cleanup?” 

Dave winks. “Oops. Saw right through me.” 

In the end Dave does stay for cleanup, though you suspect he only does so because he wants to talk to you after and ask for your number. 

You're a little surprised at yourself for giving it. 

It doesn't have to mean anything, you tell yourself later on the way home. It can just be practice. Getting back into the dating scene after disappearing from it for a few years. 

Worst case you try a one-liner on him and he ghosts you. 

Part of you hopes he doesn't, though. You enjoyed talking to Dave. He seemed nice. Normal. 

Uncomplicated. 

Beth would want that for you, too, you decide when you close the door behind you. A nice normal bloke you can live a nice normal life with. You can't hide yourself away forever; the excuse of work keeping you too busy to socialise is wearing thin.  

Who knows? You smile to yourself as you drift off. 

Maybe this could be the start of something really good. 

Dave leaves early in the morning when you're still half-asleep in bed. You don't remember getting there last night; he must've carried you over after you fell asleep on the sofa. 

You wrinkle your nose at the empty plastic containers littering the low table in the living room. It's messier than you remember it; Dave even forgot his jacket, still thrown over the back of the sofa. You pick it up and dust it off— 

...? 

You frown and lean in, sniffing the jacket. 

Traces of something sweet and fruity still cling to the fabric. 

You stand there, in the still morning light spilling through the windows, holding the jacket and staring at it. You're overreacting. You're reading into it. You're so sensitive. Jumping to conclusions. 

Dave doesn't usually wear scent, does he? 

crazy bitch, possessive cunt, stupid whore— 

...But maybe he's started to. You'll... you'll ask him about it. That should be okay, right? You'll ask him, and then he'll say oh, yeah, just trying out this new thing. 

And the world will be right again. 

Tears prick at your eyes and you blink them away, carefully hanging Dave's jacket onto the hanger in the hallway. You avert your eyes as soon as possible. 

You don't want to think about it. 

If you do, you'll just make yourself go crazy. Talk yourself into doing something stupid, like calling him and then blubbering accusations at him like a lunatic. 

You breathe out. No. This is your free day, and you're not going to spend in moping inside. You scoop up Mim, who's come out of his hiding place, and kiss his little head while he purrs in your arms. 

You're going to feed your cats, feed yourself, and then... 

Then you'll go to that military base. Get it over with. It'll get you out of the house, out of your head, make you think about something else than Dave wearing a woman's scent. 

Even if that something else is the dead brother-in-law of your equally dead best friend. 

[dollsome-does-tumblr]

tht finale thoughts--

+ that was very slow motion-y and contemplative and self-indulgent, which honestly, i'll take over a finale where everybody dies! i thought it was just, like, okay, but it didn't ruin the entire show for me retroactively, so i'll take it!

+ however: june and moira not having a big last scene???? moira not getting one last big moment?? moira, one of the great loves of her life????? lame, tacky, hated that. are you serious?????? such a bad choice. just a gaping hole where her last big scene with moira should have been. booooooooooooooo. so disrespectful to their friendship, the character, and the great and too-oft-underutilized-here samira wiley. i wanted one last june and moira moment to weep at, ok.

+ serena being like "if he had ever been free to choose, he would have chosen you" or whatever ... girl!!! she's not talking about nick!!!! she's talking about herself!!!!!!! serena joy "i have a big lesbian crush on june" waterford!!!!!!! I SEE YOU, LADY. FOR ONE LAST TIME, I SEE YOU. i figure her ending was about right. she lost everything except the one thing she truly wanted, which means she got more than she karmically deserved. may she do better with it! it seems like she will. i feel like she and noah are going to have SUCH a weird dynamic; hopefully more lucille and buster bluth than the mom and dude from psycho, i guess. and at least tuello's out there somewhere, having the lowkey hots for a beautiful war criminal and vowing to find her, and june's out there somewhere, and she and serena will probably run into each other again someday under the weirdest and very slightly sexiest circumstances possible. maybe they will edit june's book together and june will be like "ha ha i made you old and bitter and a weird televangelist."

+ so pleased to see the surprise return of emily!!! i watched the first episode this morning to prepare, which was great, because that meant i really caught that parallel. emily and her family are doing okay!

+ i feel like the landslide karaoke fantasy is going to get soooo panned, but i thought it was sort of sweet as june's trauma-informed wild daydream of what she and her girlies would've been doing in a gentler, better world. and i liked seeing alma back! and janine's other eye! edit: apparently this was a reference to a line on the show about them doing karaoke, which i had forgotten because i haven't ever rewatched this show, so! i like the resonance this takes on with that context!! girls just wanna have stevie nicks karaoke instead of the horrors!!!!

+ june and luke had a before and they'll have an after!!!!!! they're gonna go get hannah, i guess maybe in the testaments sequel series!!!!!! (sidenote: god, they should just make it a one-season miniseries if they're doing it at all. PLEASE. enough!) i enjoyed their last conversation and the way things have changed so inevitably and dramatically between them but they're also -- in whatever way, shape or form -- not over because their family is forever. i'm okay that they're not really in a kissing place because her other lover just died at her hand, but hey, maybe again someday. to me. the internet's one and only june/luke shipper, signing off from a better place than i ever would have dared to dream of during any season of this show. 🫡

+ this dialogue vs. the dialogue back when they had atwood to draw from is honestly a shocking contrast. the "cutting edge" line felt legit out of place because the dialogue's gotten so boring and predictable in the seasons since. (not to be mean! just keeping it real!) this has definitely become one of those shows where i can predict literally everything they're gonna say before they say it, which is too bad. but like, whatever, i can live with it. i just would've loved to see a version of the show that had sharper dialogue all throughout, esp. for the series finale.

however: i liked the mirroring of the beginning and the ending! i was suspecting that might be their choice for the end when i rewatched the first episode earlier today, and i thought it bookended nicely. it felt really interesting to see her speaking the words of the voiceover aloud after so many years of interpreting that as her silent inner voice.

+ the tapes! the tapes are happening!!! was there a post-credits scene of the future academic conference? i stopped watching before i could find out for sure. i'm assuming not. but ... maybe?? i might go watch the rest of these credits. bye, guys!

[itwoodbeprefect]

voting has concluded everywhere!! the results embargo has been lifted!! and i won't lie it's not Great (on some national levels it Sucks) but oh boy. it's not hopelessly terrible either, so i'll take it

i did my duty as a european citizen (went on a scavenger hunt to find the voting place which they moved from a nearly impossible to miss spot at the outer edge of a huge outdoor sport complex to a little building all the way at the back end of the complex which, near as i could tell while cycling winding deserted little roads that direction, is not accessible without navigating through a barely-signaged maze)!

[oltammefru]

HG loves hiding things in trailers that are only revealed years later and they pull another one with Episode 14, specifically with the Episode 8 trailer.

The text in it is framed as a conversation between Theresa and Amiya that makes the most sense specifically in the context of Ep14:

"Amiya, when heroes die, for a lot of them it's not unlike a landslide. Those who stand to benefit from their fall, or their legacy, are either corrupt, or doomed. Amiya, I don't believe in the superficial. The heart beats despicably within its lofty casing. An unsolved problem hides beneath the clumsy lies. Amiya, we are fated to lose so much. All we have suffered and all of our traumas tear us apart, and these wounds will never heal. Amiya, the protectors must also be the attackers. What we gain, we take from others. Creatures tend to avoid harm. Life is selfish and uncaring. Amiya, I believe these trials and tribulations, this boredom and frustration, will never end. These people have nowhere to go. All we do, we do in vain. Amiya, to change a man is to make him believe. To make him believe is to destroy his faith. Nothing can save such a lost soul. And yet, Amiya, everything I have said to you… You may yet be able to overcome it all. You can predict, you can prepare, you can endure, and you can overcome misfortune. Amiya, there should be no such thing as "fate."

Both the "the protectors must also be the attackers" line and the "Amiya, there should be no such thing as "fate"" line are direct quotes from Ep14 (up to slight differences in translation).

In particular, the part of "All we do, we do in vain. Amiya, to change a man is to make him believe. To make him believe is to destroy his faith. Nothing can save such a lost soul. And yet, Amiya, everything I have said to you... You may yet be able to overcome it all. You can predict, you can prepare, you can endure, and you can overcome misfortune." makes me feel so so bad for Theresa, especially since she is pretty clearly talking about herself here.

She's suffered so, so much, being brought back from the dead and experiencing for herself how terrible and agonizing the existence after death for the Sarkaz is. Becoming resolute that she must do what she can to free the Sarkaz from the Originium, even if it means trampling on her own ideals. Because she believes she is a failure who gave into her despair, a victim of fate, the thing that must destroyed to build a ladder, and in the end, it is Amiya who will overcome her.

[beardedmrbean]

Lefty political parties across the world are now more unpopular than any time since the Cold War, a staggering analysis of recent elections shows.

The Left suffered a record-low average of just 45% of votes in dozens of ballots held globally last year, according to the analysis of 73 democratic elections, conducted by the Telegraph.

In the United States and Western Europe, progressives were even more unpopular — with the left-leaning parties securing only 42% of their respective votes.

The Right, meanwhile, won 57% of the average votes — representing the widest gap since 1990, the analysis found.

The global demise of the political left comes off the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s landslide election win.

Trump, who will be inaugurated on Monday, secured the popular vote with 77 million votes compared to the 75 million his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, raked in.

The Left’s declining popularity is only expected to continue, too, experts say.

In the wake of Harris’ defeat, leftist parties in Canada, Australia, and Germany are already predicted to suffer similar losses in upcoming ballots.

“The trend is up. There is no real reason to expect that it will stop anytime soon,” Prof. Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist from the University of Amsterdam, told the outlet.

In Canada, polls are already showing that its firebrand Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the favorite to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the lefty leader’s abrupt resignation earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Australia’s conservative party has also inched ahead of its ruling progressive government prior to a planned election later this year, polls show.

Experts have pinned the right’s rising popularity, in part, on hardline immigration policies in the US and parts of Europe.

Jeremy Cliffe, of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said three trends were also tied to the boost.

“The globalization-driven decline of organized labor, rising identity politics harnessed more successfully by the Right than the Left, and a general tendency among Leftist forces to fragment rather than unite,” he said.

[bartfargo]

We're not out of the woods yet; we aren't even anywhere near the edge of the woods

A lot of people talk about this election as if it means the end of Trumpism; it won't. Not by a long shot.

For starters, there are more election deniers in the government now than there were on January 6. If this election is as close as is being predicted, it could go to the courts. It could even go to the Supreme Court; raise your hand if you think they'll call that down the middle.

But suppose the undecideds figure things out, the people who are talking about voting third-party get some timely treatment for their cranio-rectal insertion disorder, Harris wins by a landslide, and Trump goes to prison for the rest of his life. Wouldn't that end Trumpism? Far from it. Don Jr. and Eric are still roaming free, and JD Vance is the heir apparent.

I'm not saying we should give up hope; I'm just saying we need to look at this as a marathon, not a sprint.