#Oil prices plung

[yhebrew]

April 8 2024 Total Eclipse 139. History: 28 Adar - 1 Nissan Events

Let’s look at history for clues to our future concerning this Total Solar Eclipse crossing America on April 8, 2024 which is also the Hebrew date 29 Adar II 5784. I want to look at the day before because a great light was put out on March 20, 1726 which was 28 Adar II. They were using an old Julian style calendar for this date. But if you moved forward Issac Newton then died on March 31, 1727…

[darkworkcourier]

This is kind of a quick and dirty smut sampler for @cyber-nya's Monster 141 AU. It's kind of experimental and like an exercise in playing with styles, so hopefully some of it is cohesive?? We Shall See.

It's all gn!reader/the 141 doing their monster thing, and a bonus at the end. :)

(Also content warning for minor (very minor!) bloodplay in Price's section, chase roleplay in Soap's, minor mindfuckery and unreality in Gaz's, and safeword usage in Ghost's.)

---

With Price, it's all dichotomies. Pain and pleasure. Illumination before plunging into darkness. Aching and soothing.

Fangs pierce your neck—a cold metal sting before warmth floods your bloodstream, numbing you from the inside out. You hear your heart thrum like a plucked bass string, and you feel that odd, drowsy sensation that comes syrup-slow and sweet. His eyes flick up once, startlingly blue, and you hear his voice in your head.

I warned you, he says. He always says it, and it took you so long to realize it's because he cares.

"I know," you whisper, bringing your hand up to stroke his hair.

You always lose track of time when you're with him, hours smearing like oil, your circadian rhythm tripping and stumbling. At some point, you know he helps you out of your clothes until your skin is flush against his. His stolen heat soaks into you, and you moan as his fangs retract, tongue laving over your wounds. Then he kisses you, slow and copper-sharp, deceptively human—yet as inhuman as they come.

"Touch me?" you sigh against his lips.

Of course, he replies. In your head. In your ears. There's no difference. All that matters is his hand on you, working up a slow-moving heat between your legs, winding and coiling up the tension until it threatens to spring.

Sometimes he's quiet when he touches you like this. Sometimes he fucks you and snarls in your ear like an animal attempting human speech. Tonight, though, he turns wistful as his hand moves in long, lazy movements and you gasp against his jaw.

"One day," he tells you. "It's gonna be a bite that'll be your last."

This bedtime story. Your favorite of them all.

You bite down on your bottom lip and nod against his shoulder as he fucks you with his fingers. It takes everything in you not to sob at the sensation.

"You'll feel all your life drain out of you, and right when you think it's the end—when all this goes dark—you'll feel it. You'll feel something better than this."

This is punctuated by a stroke that sends you arching off the bed, pressing yourself against him as he works you up and up. You shudder and moan, and he rests a cheek against the crown of your head like he's listening to an orchestral piece.

"Life like you never lived it," he says. "I'll give you back some of what I took, a little bit of me in it. It'll be just like fuckin' you, but so much better. You'll wish it never ends."

You're close to wailing now, his hands moving faster than any human's, the friction a burn between your legs as you tremble in his arms.

"You'll be mine. Properly mine."

And you're over the edge—a burning bright light, something singing high and melodious in your shared blood, and then you fall back into the honey-sweet, velvet darkness.

You lay against him, panting, eyes squeezed shut, shivering in fits as you come down to the sound of him shushing you, the feeling of him stroking your hair.

"It'll happen," he whispers to you, then kisses you so sweetly that it aches. "I promise you that, love."

---

Soap plays with you at the outset. It's shared glances across rooms, quick smiles, come-hither looks. He makes a game out of following you around, then turns it into a pursuit. The aim is to get caught, but you're always given a better reward if you make him work for it. Sometimes you joke and say he's a working breed.

Today, you really make him put in the effort.

A light jog across base turns into a flat-out sprint once you get beyond the hangar. You hear Soap's boots behind you, then his grunt of surprise when you take off. It's thrilling, the burn in your muscles, the sound of Soap gaining on you, the potential of what might happen to you when he finally catches you.

You quickly turn a corner before reaching the easternmost hangar. Your boots skid on tarmac, and you nearly trip before catching yourself on the edge of a crate and using that to push off. Soap's seconds behind you, close enough that you can hear his heavy breathing, and as you round another corner leading to one of the old, disused hangars, you hear him growl.

Not playful.

The growl of something primal.

What starts as a fun exercise turns into a survival mantra—get to the hangar, get to the hangar. As your calves scream in effort and your heart threatens to punch out of your chest, you tell yourself that you'll get the luxury of making decisions so long as you reach the fucking hangar.

Adrenaline fuels every desperate step, but excitement rumbles through you at the sensation of heat at your back, the acrid sent of brimstone stinging the air. Fuck yes, you think. Come on.

You almost take the door right off its hinges, then slam it behind you just in time for Soap to impact it. The vibrations run up your arm and jar you, but you don't have time to be distracted. You sprint through the yawning empty space of the old Cold War-era hangar, the smell of burning dust hitting the air as you hear Soap actually take the door out of its frame with an otherworldly howl. Metal groans and rattles behind you, just as you finally find an empty office to hide in.

Most importantly, there's a lock on the door. Not that it matters, and not that it helps that you're effectively cornered. But that is kind of the point.

You hide between the dust-coated desk and a rusted file cabinet, counting your heartbeats and listening as claws scrape over concrete.

Thirty-one, you count, fingers on your pulse. Thirty-two. Thirty-three. Thirty-fo—

Something scratches at the door, and you hear him sniffing at its base.

You clap your hand over your mouth and press your back against the desk, trying not to grin.

(You should be terrified, but that part of your brain is hardwired now to remember that Soap would never hurt you.)

"Come out," he snarls. It's impossibly deep, a black snarl of sound that sends tingles through your whole body. "I can smell you."

You wonder what he can smell, if he picks up the scent of arousal pooling between your legs at the thought of what he's planning to do—if he's planned at all. Sometimes, when he's worked up like this, he's beyond organized thought, and the results tend to be incredible.

A few more seconds and heartbeats.

Then you hear the hinges protest, screws stripping in their sockets, wood groaning from the pressure. The lock rattles, then snaps, and the door hits the opposite wall hard enough to make you jump.

Before you can peek up over the top of the desk, black smoke and red eyes fill your vision, and a clawed hand cinches around your throat.

"Got ya."

That's all you have time to register before you're thrown over the desk like you weigh nothing. Soap's at your back, body crackling like flames, hooked claws splitting the wood of the desk as his hands (paws?) bracket your head. You know without looking that he's half-transformed—human and hellhound combined so that he can hold you down like this, but can fuck you with the fury of hell as his fuel.

And enough of a hellhound for his teeth to shred your clothes, tearing them away until you're exposed to him. A long tongue insinuates against you, achingly hot against your skin, teasing you with every lap. Then it withdraws, and you moan in protest.

"No complainin'," he says, grin audible in his snarling voice. "We got a couple hours and I plan tae make the best of it."

---

Gaz is different. He seems to exist in two worlds—a split entity that relies completely on an image of a man combined with the reality of his actual body. You're never more aware of this than when you're intimate with him.

You're in his room, feeling the weight of him against your back as he drapes an arm over your waist. He kisses the nape of your neck, down to the first divot of your spine. There, he lingers, seeming to listen to your soft breathing, hand coming up to rest over your heart. You know he loves to feel your life under his hands, the sensation of your vitality fluttering in his palms like a bird.

"Close your eyes," he mutters into your ear.

You do without question, your trust in him absolute and infinite.

All at once, you fall into that here-and-not-here space that Gaz seems to occupy. You feel his hands roaming over your body, tugging your pants down in slow, methodical motions while his lips press against your neck and shoulder. At the same time, the vision behind your eyelids goes from dizzy phosphenic spirals and patterns to something concrete and clear.

You see a sword the color of burnished gold, handle intricate and polished to a shine from centuries of use. It hovers between the gauntlet-clad hands of a suit of ancient armor, proud and regal. As Gaz touches your thighs, the helmet moves, lending the appearance that the armor is watching you.

The sensation of this particular kind of scrutiny is exquisite, and the version of you that exists in this space moves around the armor to survey it from all sides.

(Gaz touches you at the apex of your thighs.)

The blade starts to glow with unearthly light, flickering like flame.

(His hands move with deep strokes as he licks a line up the column of your neck.)

The armor's torso moves along with you, watching you vigilantly. Always ready for to attack or defend, the sword as much a threat as it is a promise.

("Does it feel good?" Gaz asks you, voice low and lovely in your ear.)

You're at the armor's back, and you see your own hands stretch forward, fingers brushing over the metal—warm to your touch, like flesh. The helmet watches you, holding still, waiting.

(You can't speak, mouth open on a moan before your head falls back against his shoulder. Your hips move on their own accord, seeking him out.)

You return to the front, facing the glowing sword, watching strange patterns ripple over the sharpened metal. The urge to touch the pommel is overwhelming—a need, rather than a want. Something about the sword and armor calls to you in a way you can't explain, like you're being called home.

("That's it," Gaz says, encouraging. You can't tell if it's to you trying to fuck yourself on his hand or to the version of you in the in-between space.)

The helmet passively watches you. You take in the sight of it—intricate designs embossed above the visor, gorget nicked with old dents and scratches that tell of a long history. It's beautiful. More importantly, you know without any sense of doubt that it's alive.

(Something burns in you, bright and wonderful, coaxed forth on Gaz's hand.)

Your hand stretches out, reaching for the sword.

(You moan, and you hear Gaz answer it with his own.)

Heat radiates off the metal, feeling like sunlight on your skin.

("Come for me," he tells you.)

Your fingers touch the pommel—this sword in the stone, always waiting for your hand in particular. The moment you touch it, one of the armor's gauntlets gently covers the back of your hand with something like assurance.

(You shudder in his arms, bucking your hips against his hand, riding out this bliss that he's created.)

This was always meant for you, the armor tells you.

("That's it. That's it," he whispers into your ear, holding you close with his opposite arm. You feel his lips on your jaw.)

You grip the handle, lifting the golden sword from its place, spurred on by the armor's hand on you. Light floods this strange space, brilliant and resplendent.

(And then—)

And then your eyes open, gasps sharp as you come down from your orgasm. Gaz has you in his arms—decidedly human arms with flesh on muscle on bone. You feel so safe, endorphins flooding you as you relax into him and sigh.

"S'always yours," he tells you, kissing your jaw. "You know that?"

You nod, smiling, eyes fluttering closed again. Just there, beyond the cosmic dust behind your eyelids, you still see the sword in your hand.

"I know," you say, rolling over to press yourself against his chest. Your head goes up under his chin, and you smile.

---

Ghost is something else entirely.

During missions, he keeps something of a corporeal form, concentrating himself into the shape of a man. He moves as a human might—controlled gestures and motions that anyone would recognize. Only when he fights, when he truly throws himself against an enemy, does he allow even a portion of himself to loosen from the illusion. Black smoke unfurls from him, wraps itself around anyone unfortunate enough to get caught, squeezes the life from them and leaves a husk behind.

He keeps it controlled around the 141, and especially around you. Keeps his distance, lingering at the edge, like an animal prone to flight. You know what that smoke is capable of—what he is capable of, but not once have you worried he'd use it against you.

And when you finally learn what he can do to you—

You're in the showers, long after lights-out. Even if someone did come to find you, they couldn't see you. Ghost's made sure you're completely enveloped within him, lost in a cold smoke brushing like snow over your bare skin.

He's inside you— in every available place until it really is impossible to tell where you end and he begins. He fucks you relentlessly, but swallows up every sound from where one of those fucking hands plies your mouth open. You think he has you pressed against one of the tile walls, but knowing that would require sight, and he's covered yours.

There's something deliriously intoxicating about the thought of Death Itself fucking you like this, using every hole, taking your pleasure over and over and absorbing each moan like a soundproof room. Your legs gave out minutes—hours?—ago, but Ghost holds you upright, keeps you in just the right position as his presence ensconces you.

"You should see yourself," he says, voice coming from everywhere. He sounds like he's behind you, in front of you, whispering from each shoulder. "Fucked out like this. Barely able to keep yourself up."

You probably groan, but Ghost takes that, too. It feels like a kiss, something brushing over your lips, and you eagerly chase it, too blissed out to know what it is you're trying to catch.

"You'd take anything I give you, huh?"

A tendril follows along the curve of your thigh, up and up, then bridges over to the opposite leg in one liquid movement. It's cold silk on your flesh, making you shiver in his omnipresent grip.

It's almost too much, almost—

Your right hand moves, index and middle finger extended, tapping twice into the cool darkness.

It recedes immediately.

In a set of simultaneous movements, you're lowered to the floor and one of the tendrils reaches out to turn the shower on, shielding you from the water until it's warm enough to tolerate. You catch your breath as the water falls over you, and Ghost wraps himself around you like a blanket, settling over your shoulders before nudging gently at your cheek.

Still trying to catch your breath, your trembling hand reaches up and strokes over the darkness, finding it soft and pliable under your fingers. "I just... I needed a break. Just a few minutes."

"Okay." Another nudge, this time from something that's nearly a hand. "You need anything?"

You shake your head, then lean into him. He takes more of a form now, human-shaped enough for you to lean your head against his chest. "You, mostly," you say.

"I'm here." He kisses the top of your head—one of the most human gestures he knows—and repeats it again. "I'm here."

---

"I don't care that it's incorporeal smoke," Dr. Adler says. "Sexual wellness is important, regardless of how you go about accomplishing... whatever it is."

You groan, watching her untie the tourniquet on your arm as blood flows into the tiny plastic vial. Within a few seconds, it's full, and she takes it and the syringe out in one quick movement before holding the vial up to the fluorescent light buzzing over your heads.

She taps the bottom of the vial twice with her thumb, and you watch with mute fascination as your blood turns bright blue, glows like a firefly, then turns back to what you think is still your blood.

Dr. Adler hums and tucks the vial into her lab coat pocket (with no indication of what she's planning on doing with it). "You're clean," she says.

"That's it? Don't you have to send that to a lab or something?"

"In a normal medical practice, yes," she replies with a shrug. "But not here. I don't have to pretend that I can't just do it myself."

"So your magic witchy powers cover checking for STDs?"

A brief look of annoyance crosses her face. "Not naturally, no. I learned it out of— Well, necessity."

You raise your brows. "Necessity?" you repeat.

"Military people. Always putting their genitalia in places where it doesn't belong."

"Oh." Gross. "Ew."

"Mhmm. Besides, I had to test it on myself a few times."

That gets your brows to a new altitude. "What?"

The look on Dr. Adler's face is the dictionary definition of enigmatic. Immediately, she goes to her office door and opens it for you. "Nevermind," she says. "I have another appointment waiting."

You glance out the door, but the waiting room's empty.

Still, she looks pretty insistent, and judging from hearsay from the other members of the 141, it's best not to pry too much into her business.

You leave, and the moment the door shuts behind you, you hear a soft, low, very much masculine laugh and a quiet mutter of what sounds like German.

Best to leave it be.

[mostlysignssomeportents]

California's antitrust case against Amazon

California’s antitrust case against Amazon feels anachronistic, like a witchcraft charge, or some other ancient crime that we no longer prosecute. It’s true, antitrust spent 40 year in a coma! The Amazon case neatly illustrates how it was sedated, and why it finally roused.

Back in the Reagan years, antitrust underwent a profound change. For 90 years, America’s trustbusters had pursued monopolists under the theory of “harmful dominance” — the idea that when companies get big enough, they can inflict harms on workers, communities, customers and the political process. They become “too big to fail” and “too big to jail.”

Senator John Sherman said it well, when campaigning for his landmark 1890 Sherman Act, America’s first comprehensive antitrust law: “If we will not endure a King as a political power we should not endure a King over the production, transportation, and sale of the necessaries of life.”

https://marker.medium.com/we-should-not-endure-a-king-dfef34628153

For American competition regulators, the problem with big companies was that they usurped the power of democratically accountable law. The executives who commanded these firms became “autocrat[s] of trade with power to prevent competition and to fix the price of any commodity.”

But for the business lobby, the ability to be an autocrat — to impose your will on your workers and suppliers and customers without interference by elected lawmakers or the regulators who report to them — was a feature, not a bug. The power of a monopolist to take away others’ freedom to trade, work and live as they choose was essential to “liberty.” That’s why, as self-proclaimed “libertarian” Peter Thiel has it, “Competition is for losers.”

Under Reagan, the business lobby got its way. Their champion was Robert Bork, Richard Nixon’s disgraced solicitor general, whose book, “The Antitrust Paradox,” was a kind of gnostic reading of US antitrust law, insisting that the lawmakers who voted for the Sherman Act and its successors actually liked monopoly:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/13/post-bork-era/#manne-down

These lawmakers, Bork said, viewed monopolies as beneficial, thanks to the efficiencies they realized by not having to engage in wasteful competition. The FTC, DoJ and the courts had been misapplying antitrust through its history. The only time the state should act against monopolies is when they use their market power to raise prices.

This “consumer welfare” theory of antitrust was the poison dart that plunged trustbusting into a 40-year coma. Bork and his cronies at the University of Chicago School of Economics — the cradle of neoliberalism — set up a sweet side-hustle, building complex mathematical models that only they understood.

These models were used to prove that every monopoly was untouchable under consumer welfare enforcement standards — even if a company bought all its competitors and then increased prices 1,000% (as Luxottica-Essilor did for eyeglasses, after buying nearly every eyeglass brand, retailer, insurer and lens-maker), it was still untouchable.

The Bork models could “prove” that these price-hikes were the result of “exogenous” factors — increasing wage bills, oil shocks, or just because the moon was in Venus. Price-gouging could be blamed on anything except corporate greed.

This highly technical change in antitrust enforcement is one of the most consequential, worst-understood shifts in our society. Today’s headline inflation numbers rarely mention the monopoly CEOs who gleefully notify their shareholders that they’ve been able to raise prices far in excess of their costs, simply because they lack meaningful competition:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/02/its-the-economy-stupid/#overinflated

It was obvious from the start that “consumer welfare” was a scam, a ruse designed to let monopolies flourish and to install “autocrats of trade” on their thrones. Despite its ideological bankruptcy, “consumer welfare” was able to repel its critics for decades, because it had deep-pocketed backers — no different from tobacco-cancer denial or climate denial.

But, as with cancer and climate denial, inaction on antitrust created mounting harms that made it increasingly obvious that the story was a lie. In 2017, we reached a turning point when a third-year law student published “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox” in Yale Law Journal, which demolished Bork’s arguments so comprehensively that today, that former law student is the chair of the FTC: Lina Khan.

Khan’s leadership — and that of her colleagues, Robert Kanter at the DoJ and Tim Wu in the White House — have been nothing short of inspirational, an object lesson in the prospect that “personnel are policy.” But they are not alone — they are part of a raging current sweeping through state governments and legislatures all over the world, from the EU to China.

And state houses, too. Which brings me back to California’s antitrust case against Amazon. Amazon exerts serious harmful dominance, of course — you can’t have missed the way that its conduct erodes local tax bases, immiserates workers, inflicts climate harms, wrecks local businesses and independent firms that rely on its platform.

But none of that is in the California case against Amazon. Rather, the case focuses on a narrow, and ingenious “consumer welfare” theory of how Amazon has raised prices — the one thing that consumer welfare claims to defend us from:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62908412

Amazon is a classic “chokepoint capitalism” business. The company’s “Prime” program and other lock-in tactics were deliberately and explicitly designed to ensure that the majority of customers for the majority of goods turn to Amazon first. It worked:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/06/01/you-are-here/#prime-facie

That means that any business that wants to sell anything had better offer those goods on Amazon, or forfeit a large portion of its market — perhaps the majority. When large firms like Birkenstocks held out and refused to sell on Amazon, the company tacitly encouraged counterfeiters to sell substitute goods to customers searching on its site:

https://www.geekwire.com/2016/birkenstock-announces-it-will-leave-amazon/

The result is that nearly every firm was corralled into Amazon’s walled garden, and as those firms disappeared behind Amazon’s walls, more customers bought into Prime and found themselves locked into Amazon’s walled garden, too. Amazon is quite explicit about this strategy, which they call “the flywheel”:

https://twitter.com/rgibli/status/1561761732108107777

That meant that instead of competing in the market, these Amazon suppliers competed on Amazon. Amazon created a $31b/year “ad” business mainly made up of payola that Amazon vendors spend to rise to the top of the Amazon listings:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/27/not-an-ad/#shakedowns

Even after spending $31b, independent merchants find themselves unable to make a go of it on Amazon’s platform. Desperate, they sell out to “gators” — aggregators who professionalized the business of navigating Amazon’s Byzantine rules and scams, spawning a multi-billion-dollar, socially useless industry:

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/10/monopoly-begets-monopoly/#gator-ade

But no matter how much you spend on Amazon “ads,” and no matter how skilled you are at avoiding Amazon’s other traps, you will struggle to top the listings unless you purchase a slew of Amazon “services” — most notably, “fulfillment by Amazon” and Amazon Prime Fulfillment.

All told, a successful Amazon seller is likely handing over 35–45% of the purchase price to Amazon in fees and commissions. That vastly exceeds the profit margin on many goods, which presents merchants with a stark choice: lose money on every sale, or charge more for everything sold on Amazon.

No business can survive for long if it loses money on every sale (at least, not without the backing of the Saudi royals — looking at you, Uber). So Amazon sellers hike prices, just to cover the vig extracted by Amazon itself.

You might be thinking that this is an opportunity for Amazon’s rivals: if your local retailer (or even Walmart) opted not to charge all those fees, then the same merchants could offer the same products on their shelves at a 35–45% discount and still make the same amount of money. As habituated as we are to Amazon, as much as Prime means we turn to it first, a 45% discount would surely tempt some of us to shop elsewhere.

But Amazon’s thought of that too, which is why they make every merchant that sells through their platform sign a “most favored nation” guarantee that they will not charge less for their products anywhere else — which means that the price is the same everywhere.

And that’s the heart of the California antitrust case against Amazon: Amazon’s market dominance makes it impossible to survive without offering your products on Amazon; to succeed there, you must turn over 35–45% of your gross to Amazon. That leads to higher prices on Amazon, and, thanks to the most favored nation deal, it pushes those same higher prices to every other retailer.

Amazon, in other words, is undermining “consumer welfare” by forcing up prices — not just on Amazon, but everywhere.

This is sleazy as hell of course, but, as noted, it is just one of Amazon’s myriad of sins, and far from the worst one. California AG Rob Bonta has managed to thread the microscopic eye of Robert Bork’s needle — but like busting Capone for tax fraud, the need to pursue this strategy reveals the poverty of our other enforcement regimes.

“Consumer welfare” was always a lie and a sham. The harms inflicted by chokepoint capitalists — to workers, suppliers, and our politics and regulation — are not limited to making us worse off as “consumers.” No one is a mere “consumer” — a kind of ambulatory wallet. We are also workers, citizens, and residents. Even when monopolies make our prices go down, they also make our wages stagnate, lowering our overall purchasing power.

It’s heartening to see California take on one nodule of the Amazon cancer, but that can only be the start. Even if Amazon is forced to stop price-gouging us, it will still inflict innumerable harms. This needs to be seen as the first step in taming monopolies — not as an end in itself.

[Image ID: The flag of California. It has been altered so that the bear is rearing on its hind legs, and its forelegs are crushing an Amazon lower-case 'a' logo. The 'smile' beneath the Amazon logo has been inverted into a frown. Atop the California bear stands a trustbuster-era editorial cartoon illustration of Roosevelt, swinging his 'big stick.' From the star in the California flag emanates a read beam-weapon that is bathing the Amazon 'a' with lethal rays. The 'a' is wreathed in flames.]

[mariacallous]

At the end of 2022, Dmitry Medvedev—Russia’s former prime minister and the current deputy chairman of its Security Council—offered his predictions for the coming year. He warned that Europeans would suffer badly from Russia’s decision to curb natural gas exports to the European Union, suggesting that gas prices would jump to $5,000 per thousand cubic meters in 2023—around 50 times their prewar average. He probably assumed that that sky-high prices would translate into a windfall for Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, which was still supplying several European countries via pipeline, ramping up exports of liquefied natural gas, and eyeing new deals with China. Perhaps Medvedev also hoped that Europeans would beg the Kremlin to send the gas flowing again.

It turns out that Medvedev might want to polish his crystal ball: Last year, European gas prices averaged a mere one-tenth of his number. And just this month, Gazprom posted a massive $6.8 billion loss for 2023, the first since 1999.

Gazprom’s losses demonstrate the extent to which the Kremlin’s decision to turn off the gas tap to Europe in 2022 has backfired. In 2023, European Union imports of Russian gas were at their lowest level since the early 1970s, with Russian supplies making up only 8 percent of EU gas imports, down from 40 percent in 2021. This has translated into vertiginous losses for Gazprom, with the firm’s revenues from foreign sales plunging by two-thirds in 2023.

Gazprom’s woes are very likely setting off alarm bells in Moscow: With no good options for the company to revive flagging gas sales, its losses could weigh on Russia’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine. This is especially ironic given the fact that EU sanctions do not target Russian gas exports; the damage to the Kremlin and its war effort is entirely self-inflicted.

The most immediate impact of Gazprom’s losses will be on Russian government revenues, a crucial metric to gauge Moscow’s ability to sustain its war against Ukraine. Poring over Gazprom’s latest financials paints a striking picture. Excluding dividends, Gazprom transferred at least $40 billion into Russian state coffers in 2022, either to the general government budget or the National Welfare Fund (NWF), Moscow’s sovereign wealth fund.

This is no small feat. Until last year, Gazprom alone provided about 10 percent of Russian federal budget revenues through customs and excise duties as well as profit taxes. (Oil receipts usually account for an additional 30 percent of budget revenues.) This flood of money now looks like distant history. In 2023, the company’s contribution to state coffers through customs and excise duties was slashed by four-fifths, and like many money-losing firms, it is due a tax refund from the Russian treasury.

For Moscow, this is bad news on several fronts. Because of rising military expenses, the country’s fiscal balance swung into deficit when Moscow invaded Ukraine. To help plug the gap, the Kremlin ordered Gazprom to pay a $500 million monthly levy to the state until 2025. Now that the company is posting losses, it is unclear how it will be able to afford this transfer. In addition, Gazprom’s contribution to the NWF will probably have to shrink. For the Kremlin, this could not come at a worst time: The NWF’s liquid holdings have already dropped by nearly $60 billion, around half of its prewar total, as Moscow drains its rainy-day fund to finance the war. Finally, Gazprom’s woes could prompt the firm to shrink its planned investments in gas fields and pipelines—a decision that would, in turn, hit Russian GDP growth.

As if this was not enough, a closer look at Gazprom’s newly released financials suggests that the worst may be yet to come, with three telltale signs that 2024 could be even more difficult than 2023.

First, Gazprom’s accounts receivable—a measure of money due to be paid by customers—are in free fall, suggesting that the firm’s revenue inflow is drying up. Second, accounts payable shot up by around 50 percent in 2023, hinting that Gazprom is struggling to pay its own bills to various suppliers. Finally, short-term borrowing nearly doubled last year as Russian state-owned banks were enlisted to support the former gas giant.

Whereas these figures come from Gazprom’s English-language financials, the company’s latest Russian-language update yields two additional surprises—both of which show that the firm’s situation has worsened even further since the beginning of the year.

First, short-term borrowing during the first three months of 2024 roughly doubled compared to the previous quarter. If Russian state-owned banks continue to cover Gazprom’s losses, the Russian financial sector could soon find itself in trouble. This begs a tricky question: With the NWF’s reserves dwindling and Moscow’s access to international capital markets shut down, who would pay a bailout bill? Second, Gazprom’s losses were almost five times greater in the first quarter of 2024 than in the same period of 2023, hinting that the firm may post an even bigger loss this year than it did in 2023.

Looking ahead, 2025 will be an especially tough year for Gazprom. The transit deal that protects gas shipments through Ukraine via pipeline to Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia will probably expire at the end of this year, further curbing what’s left of Gazprom’s exports to Europe. A quick glance at a map makes it clear that China is now the only remaining option for Russian pipeline gas.

Yet Beijing is not that interested: Last year, it bought just 23 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, a mere fraction of the 180 billion cubic meters that Moscow used to ship to Europe. Negotiations to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which would boost gas shipments to China, have stalled. And in truth, China is not a like-for-like replacement for Gazprom’s lost European consumers. Beijing pays 20 percent less for Russian gas than the remaining EU customers, and the gap is predicted to widen to 28 percent through 2027.

Without pipelines, raising exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the only remaining option for Moscow. However, Western policies make this easier said than done. Western export controls curb Russia’s access to the complex machinery needed to develop LNG terminals, such as equipment to chill the gas to negative160 degrees Celsius so that it can be shipped on specialized vessels. And Washington has recently imposed sanctions on a Singapore-based firm and two ships working on a Russian LNG project, signaling that it will similarly designate any entity willing to work in the sector. Finally, U.S. sanctions make it much harder for Russian firms to finance the development of new liquefaction facilities and the gas field designed to supply them. In December, Japanese firm Mitsui announced that it was pulling staff and reviewing options for its participation to Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 project. As a result, the Russian operator announced last month that it was suspending operations of the project, which was originally slated to launch LNG shipments early this year.

Gazprom’s cheesy corporate slogan—“Dreams come true!”—does not ring so true anymore as Moscow’s former cash cow becomes a loss-making drain. Data from the International Energy Agency confirms the extent of the Kremlin’s miscalculation when it turned off the gas tap to Europe: The agency predicts that Russia’s share of global gas exports will fall to 15 percent by 2030—down from 30 percent before Moscow’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine.

This was probably predictable. It is hard to imagine how a gas exporter configured to serve European customers and reliant on Western technology could thrive after refusing to serve its main client—signaling to every other potential customer, including China, that it is an unreliable supplier. Corporate empires tend to rise and fall, and it looks like Gazprom will be no exception to the rule.

[anarkissm]

following the canon timeline for the legion, frank is 19 in 1996 (year of the murder and abduction by the entity), implying he was born in 1977. he was 6 years old when he was taken from his home in calgary (alberta’s largest city, the third largest city in canada) and tossed around foster homes across alberta. implying he was separated from his parents in 1983; this would have occurred during one of the worst recessions in global history; wages for low-wage workers rapidly declined, and the world price of oil collapsed. alberta’s economy plunged into a deep recession. oil companies, which were in massive debt due to years of exploration with no profit, filed for bankruptcy and curtailed, or abandoned operations in alberta altogether. by 1992, 25% of calgary’s population were living under the standard poverty line.

frank grew up in a densely populated, expensive city. when the recession reached calgary, his parents could not afford their apartment and were driven into houselesness, living out of their car. social services processed frank and separated him from his biological family. for days. then the days bled into weeks. into months. into years. his foster parents received fat checks to keep frank fed and sheltered. nothing else. in 1984, his parents froze to death in their minivan when the heater stopped working.  the local government took his survivor benefits and stored it in state coffers. frank never saw or spent it.

for the first five years, he screamed and cried and fought and repeatedly tried to run away. raging against the unfairness. spent two birthdays in a juvenile detention center for physically attacking a foster parent.

74% of all children in alberta’s foster care system are indigenous. first nation children make up 82% of canada’s permanent wards. the older wards used to call it the new residential schools. frank was a foster brother to many aboriginal foster kids, and he was often mistaken as one of them because of his features. when he was 15, frank attempted to contact his hualapai relatives in arizona; an effort to finally escape the cycle of foster homes. but frank’s efforts to reconnect with his estranged family were ultimately in vain. the legalities of immigration and blood quantum did not favor frank’s unique circumstances.

frank learned that no one was coming to save him. by design. so, fuck it. fuck them. and all the stupid fucking rules that stopped him from getting what he wanted.

frank’s trauma within the foster care system cultivated his overt/antagonistic narcissism and antisocial or “anti-society” personality. arrogance and aggression became a protective shield that cushioned the worst of his experiences, becoming vital to his survival and inseparable from his core self. with authority (police, foster parents, social workers, bullies), frank learned to watch for certain body languages, vocal tones. tells. their habits. their interests. their insecurities. he learned to use his intense observation skills to lie, manipulate, cheat, etc.. people were objects or assets, forgettable faces he would never see again as he constantly moved around foster homes.

for every town or city he was bussed to, frank would get a tattoo. to keep him focused. to remember. as a rule, his rule, frank only sticks around until the skin cools and the ink dries.

ormond, and the legion, became the only exception.

frank lived in ormond for three years, which implies he was 16 years old when he moved into the trailer park with clive andrews. in those three years, frank nurtured his obsession with julie, joey, and susie.

frank views the other members of the legion as tools. weapons. his favorite weapons. extensions of himself, like body parts. and, like his body, he protects them. appealing to their interests. infiltrating their darkest secrets, their insecurities. enabling their worst instincts. julie’s boredom. joey’s rejection sensitivity. susie’s loneliness. and frank’s anger, bleeding into them like a virus.

when the entity takes its killers, it makes an offer. if the offer is refused, the entity takes them anyway, and forces them to become its killers through supernatural torture. frank was offered an eternity with the only people he has ever cared about. no rules. no turbulent future. no way to separate them. together, forever.

he did not reject the offer.

[myrddin-wylt]

More south asian news coming up! Most of it not very good

Pakistan is imploding on itself, again, from India's perspective they've been constantly imploding since independence but its getting worse now, my mum has said multiple times over that then only thing keeping pakistan together is the hatred for the Indian cricket team, and their own cricket team, but seriously the situation is bad there.

Sri Lanka's also having a hell of a time, I cant explain it all that well, I'm not the best at explaining economy but its just bad.

I dont ecacty know what Bangladesh is doing, but it seems not to be doing all that much just yet so that's good. Same with Nepal and bhutan but I dont know what's going on there on a good day.

India is...doing something, tensions with china are as usual, tensions with pakistan too, they're kind of playing both sides if the oil issue, they're buying a lot if cheap oil from Russia and selling it to everyone else for more expensive prices, so they're doing business that's for sure.

I know Sri Lanka has been having a very, very bad time. IIRC, they were already struggling due to civil war in the early 2000s, and then covid plunged their economy off a cliff, and now they're having an energy crisis. I don't know more than that.

also I'm sorry, I got this ask earlier this week but I just do not have the knowledge to really actually converse with you about it. orz I can barely keep track of Europe and northern Asia as it is, so southern Asia is unfortunately beyond my scope and I simply do not like to pass opinions on topics I know I'm ignorant about. but I didn't want to ignore you, either, because things are happening in southern Asia that are significant and need to be talked about. I just can't do much of the talking there.

[beardedmrbean]

The preliminary phase of the Vastaamo psychotherapy centre data breach trial commences on Thursday at the District Court of Western Uusimaa in Otaniemi, Espoo.

The data breaches are believed to have been committed in November 2018 and March 2019, affecting an estimated 30,000 victims.

Newspaper Ilkka-Pohjalainen carried an STT report that the main suspect in the case, 26-year-old Aleksanteri Kivimäki, faces charges of aggravated data breaches, nearly 9,600 charges of aggravated dissemination of sensitive information, over 21,300 counts of attempted aggravated extortion, and 20 counts of aggravated extortion.

The prosecution is calling on the court to hand Kivimäki a seven-year prison sentence.

Helsingin Sanomat (HS) also reported about the beginning of the trial, noting that Thursday's preliminary session will likely be concise and focus mainly on establishing guidelines as well as scheduling the forthcoming trial, which is set to commence on 13 November.

HS further notes that the defendant plans to participate in the preparatory meeting, despite not being legally obliged to do so until the main trial in November.

Kivimäki asserts his innocence and refutes any connection to the alleged offences, arguing that the case lacks compelling or concrete proof implicating him.

He contends that the true perpetrator is another individual within similar social circles, according to HS.

The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) has previously stated that the evidence against Kivimäki is substantial. Authorities are expected to release extensive preliminary investigation material for the case on Thursday, comprising over 2,000 pages, STT reported.

Petrol prices take surprising plunge

Despite the prevailing global economic conditions and forecasts of gloomy times ahead, fuel prices in Finland have dropped, falling below the two-euro-per-litre mark in numerous locations, as reported by tabloid Iltalehti.

As of Wednesday evening, motorists in Kirkkonummi had the opportunity to fill their tanks with 95E10 gasoline for a mere 1.78 euros per litre.

Back in September, Iltalehti noted, the average cost for 95E10 petrol was 2.15 euros per litre. During the summer, some fuel stations even reached a peak price of 2.50 euros per litre.

In early October, price projections remained pessimistic, and the unstable situation in the Middle East was expected to lead to an upswing in fuel costs.

However, the expected price surge has yet to materialise. According to data collected on October 25th, the average cost of 95E10 gasoline currently stands at 1.94 euros per litre. For diesel consumers, the most budget-friendly refuelling option is available in Vantaa at 1.90 euros per litre, while for higher octane 98E5 gasoline, Kirkkonummi offers the lowest price at 1.88 euros per litre.

Iltalehti noted, however, that it may only be a matter of time before the recent political escalations in the Middle East affect oil supplies and consequently influence prices.

Another Finnish city cancels disgraced singer's gig

Tabloid Ilta-Sanomat reported that the city of Lappeenranta joined other Finnish cities in cancelling concerts featuring singer Jari Sillanpää.

The singer and former tango star was convicted of disseminating child pornography in 2020, although the fine he received was reduced on appeal.

Sillanpää was scheduled to perform at a Christmas concert in the South Karelian city on 3 December, but the city said it had to re-evaluate the hosting of the event citing child-friendly values.

"The former and now re-publicised criminal convictions of Jari Sillanpää are in conflict with the city's values and ethical guidelines and therefore the city does not see cooperation as viable," a press release by Lappeenranta city authorities reads.

Sillanpää's previous convictions have been brought to public attention once again following a documentary series by Finnish broadcaster MTV.

Lappeenranta is the second Finnish city to make such a decision regarding the Christmas concert tour in recent weeks, following a similar move by Turku, while authorities in Pori are also believed to be considering their options.

[shisui-uchiha-anon]

𝕆𝕔𝕥𝕠𝕓𝕖𝕣 𝕨𝕣𝕚𝕥𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕔𝕙𝕒𝕝𝕝𝕖𝕟𝕘𝕖!

Day eight -Claws-

Shisui had left Kabuto alone and without food just water and his sword. The sword lying on the ground before him. One of Kabuto’s hand still had claws still. The dim lantern illuminating half of Shisui's face and still unconcious Kabuto. Shisui tried to warn him that posesing him in order to save his life is not easy task. There is a price to pay. Claws are harder to retreat, and the blood lust need to fight and kill. Kabuto no matter how powerful, he is still just a human.

Kabuto seem to understand. Finally. That without Shisui posesing him he would be dead, broken blade pierced his chest, Shisui brought all back. As a trophy, Kabuto was awake. He stood and shook out his legs, automatically testing the condition of his own body. He took a few experimental swings with his arms and legs finding the balance was, somehow, still fairly good. However, his strikes wavered slightly, his muscles trmbled. And his left hand had same black sharp nails as Shisui's.

Shisui's face warmed. "I came back and as far as I can see without any prenemant damage." But the response Shisui got...this was not the first time that they breached the firm line between human and demon. Human and monster. They were intimate in every possible way. Possesion was just the last step. Holding the hilt of the katana that perfeclty fits his hand or his masters cock, there was no difference. He needed both and the both fitted. The moment Kabuto would touch him the mark on his forehead would flare to life, eyes would blaze into amber yellow, and hair turn red as blood.

Shisui untied Kabuto's hakama and let his hand wander under his shirt up in search of the small jar of oil. Kabuto kept smal vial in his shirt at all times. This had become a habit for both Kabuto and Shisui, since most of their intimacy occurred in the critical moments of theri lives. They were intimate as if that was a way to rememebr ech other, and to say goodbye. Intimacy they wanted to brand into a memory. As soon as they found moment to be alone for any length of time, they would enjoy in each other. Kabuto would be forced down onto the bed which was perpetually left in a mess on the floor.

But this time, Kabuto's clawed fingres teased his skin, scrapped against it, till he let out and eager gasp. Shisui lay on his back, wlcoming Kabuto over himself. He flicked the cap off the oil and rubbed Kabuto till he was fully hard and coathed with it. Shisui spread his legs apart and expose himself as if welcoming Kabuto home. In some other situation Shisui would demand to watch Kabuto prepare himself. But now he took a role of submissive partner. A maiden eager to feel hr feral master, rake her with claws and fangs.

Shisui hissed when Kabuto couldn’t or didn't want to get the angle he desired with his lenght that was locked inside of Shisui's body. Shisui was desperate right now and probably Kabuto was thralled to see him like this for the first time. To see roles reverse.

Shisui turned his head to the side and hunched his shoulders as Kabuto sink his claws into his skin and finally got his stroking and penetration into perfect synic. Demon was singing the most beautiful song till he came to preak and willingly jumped off it, plunging into the finall stage of pleasure.... Have mercy on me

Two bodies were lying next to each other, one pale with silver hair and one tonned with long messy curly hair that coverd that beautiful face that now rested on Kabuto's belly. Hand came to fondle that messy curly hair, claws were gone. "You really are a monster Kabuto. And then humans say demons are bad. Ridicilous"

(This story inspired by a thread I have with @thatsneakymedic)

(as per request tagging the creator of this challenge list @lunyraartistry)

[ome-magical-ramblings]

Ghee Lamp/Candle.

The reason for this post, is that I was wondering if I could make a 7 days candle myself because of the price of 7 days candle here in my country, look at this:

So I decided to find a solution for myself, but sadly oil lamps would only last around 3-4 days and floating the wick was hard. I made multiple versions with the glass turning black and one time almost exploding. The end results was a candlestick shoved inside a 1 kg vegetable ghee tin jar, which might sounds absurd. I can assure you tho that this candle or lamp last longer than a 7 days candle, it's convenient and very useful candle. You can put the tin jar in a bowl, fill it with hot water and then throw in herbs and push them down inside the ghee and afterward plunge the candlestick inside the ghee. The Results?

Day 1

Day 2

Day 4

Day 6

Day 7

In the end it burned in the last day, just before finishing 8 days(192 hours of non-stop burning). Surprisingly it went well. The total cost of this lamp was 3.8 USD, it averaged out to be a lot better choice than buying it online and having it shipped. I am happy with the results and I am grateful that I was inspired to do this.

I hope that people find this useful if 7 days candle aren't accessible or they want to make their makeshift candle lol

[newstfionline]

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Canada mulls expelling China diplomat for targeting lawmaker (AP) Canada’s foreign minister said Thursday the country is considering the expulsion of Chinese diplomats over an intelligence agency report saying one of them plotted to intimidate the Hong Kong relatives of a Canadian lawmaker. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said her department was summoning China’s ambassador to a meeting to underline that Canada won’t tolerate such interference. She said the intelligence agency report indicated that opposition Conservative lawmaker Michael Chong and his Hong Kong relatives were targeted after Chong criticized Beijing’s human rights record. “We’re assessing different options including the expulsion of diplomats,” Joly said before a Parliament committee. Many governments, the United Nations, and human rights groups accuse China of sweeping a million or more people from its Uyghur community and other predominantly Muslim ethnic minority groups into detention camps, where many have said they were tortured, sexually assaulted, and forced to abandon their language and religion. China denies the accusations, which are based on evidence including interviews with survivors and photos and satellite images from Uyghur’s home province of Xinjiang, a major hub for factories and farms in far western China.

Smaller Banks Are Scrambling as Share Prices Plunge (NYT) A cluster of regional banks scrambled on Thursday to convince the public of their financial soundness, even as their stock prices plunged and investors took bets on which might be the next to fall. The tumult brought questions about the future of the lenders to the fore, suggesting a new phase in the crisis that began two months ago with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and was punctuated on Monday by the seizure and sale of First Republic Bank. PacWest and Western Alliance were in the eye of the storm, despite the companies’ protestations that their finances were solid. PacWest’s shares lost 50 percent of their value on Thursday and Western Alliance fell 38 percent. Other midsize banks, including Zions and Comerica, also posted double-digit percentage declines. Unlike the banks that failed after depositors rushed to pull their money out, the lenders now under pressure have reported relatively stable deposit bases and don’t sit on mountains of soured loans. The most immediate threat the banks face, analysts said, is a crisis of confidence.

Oil boom starts to transform Guyana (AP) Villagers in this tiny coastal community lined up on the soggy grass, leaned into the microphone and shared what they wanted: a library, streetlights, school buses, homes, a grocery store, reliable electricity, wider roads and better bridges. “Please help us,” said Evadne Pellew-Fomundam—a 70-year-old who lives in Ann’s Grove, one of Guyana’s poorest communities—to the country’s prime minister and other officials who organized the meeting to hear people’s concerns and boost their party’s image ahead of municipal elections. The list of needs is long in this South American country of 791,000 people that is poised to become the world’s fourth-largest offshore oil producer, placing it ahead of Qatar, the United States, Mexico and Norway. The oil boom will generate billions of dollars for this largely impoverished nation. It’s also certain to spark bitter fights over how the wealth should be spent in a place where politics is sharply divided along ethnic lines: 29% of the population is of African descent and 40% of East Indian descent, from indentured servants brought to Guyana after slavery was abolished. Change is already visible. In the capital, Georgetown, buildings made of glass, steel and concrete rise above colonial-era wooden structures, with shuttered sash windows, that are slowly decaying.

Beyond King Charles (Washington Post) Though the British monarchy attracts the most global attention, there are wealthier, more powerful royals among the 28 monarchs around the world. Seventeen of them are kings. Margrethe II of Denmark is the only queen. The microstate of Andorra has co-princes, the president of France and a Spanish bishop. Japan has an emperor. Brunei and Oman have sultans. Liechtenstein and Monaco have princes. Qatar and Kuwait have emirs. Luxembourg has a grand duke. And the United Arab Emirates has a president, though he is a monarch. Although Charles is estimated to have a personal net worth between $750 million and $1.44 billion, others far surpass him. Leaders in Thailand, Saudi Arabia and Brunei are estimated to be worth well over $10 billion.

Italian foreign minister calls off Paris trip after French ‘insults’ (Reuters) Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani called off a trip to Paris on Thursday, saying the French interior minister had offended Italy and its Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni with unacceptable “insults”. Earlier, the French minister, Gerald Darmanin, told RMC radio that Meloni was “unable to solve the migration problems on which she was elected” and accused her of “lying” to voters that she could end a crisis over growing numbers of boat migrants. News of his comments came as Tajani was preparing to fly to Paris to see his French counterpart—a trip that was aimed partly at improving relations between the two European Union countries that have grown increasingly brittle. France swiftly issued a statement in which it sought to reassure Rome of its willingness to work closely with Italy, but it was not enough to persuade Tajani to catch his plane. It was the latest in a series of clashes between Paris and Rome since Meloni took office last October at the head of a nationalist, conservative government which has a very different world vision to that of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Kremlin accuses Washington of directing drone attack on Putin (Washington Post) The Kremlin spokesman on Thursday accused the United States of ordering what Moscow alleges was an assassination attempt on President Vladimir Putin with two drones that were sent to attack the Russian president’s official residence. “We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kyiv, but in Washington, and Kyiv does what it is told,” Dmitry Peskov told reporters Thursday. John Kirby, the spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, said Peskov “is just lying.”

Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin says his forces will leave Bakhmut next week (Reuters) Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary force, said in a sudden and dramatic announcement on Friday that his forces would leave the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut that they have been trying to capture since last summer. Prigozhin said they would pull back on May 10—ending their involvement in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war—because of heavy losses and inadequate ammunition supplies. He asked defence chiefs to insert regular army troops in their place. “I’m pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they’re doomed to perish senselessly,” Prigozhin said in a statement. Prigozhin has vented increasing anger at what he describes as lack of support from the Russian defence establishment. Earlier on Friday he appeared in a video surrounded by dozens of corpses he said were Wagner fighters, and yelling and swearing at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He said they were to blame for Wagner’s losses because they had starved it of ammunition.

Earthquake-Proof, Not Corruption-Proof: Turkey’s Needless Deaths (NYT) The building began convulsing at 4:17 a.m. Firat Yayla was awake in bed, scrolling through videos on his phone. His mother was asleep down the hall. The region along Turkey’s border with Syria was known for earthquakes, but this apartment complex was new, built to withstand disaster. It was called Guclu Bahce, or Mighty Garden. Mr. Yayla’s own cousin had helped build it. He and his business partner had boasted that the complex could withstand even the most powerful tremor. So, as the earth heaved for more than a minute, Mr. Yayla, 21, and his 62-year-old mother, Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, remained inside. At that very moment, though, Mr. Yayla’s cousin, the developer, was leaping for safety from a second-story balcony. What Mr. Yayla and his mother had not known was that the system to ensure that buildings were safely constructed to code had been tainted by money and politics. A developer won zoning approval for the project after donating more than $200,000 to a local soccer club, where the mayor is an honorary president. The building inspector said that, even after the project had failed its inspection, the developers used political influence to get the doors open. The Feb. 6 earthquake revealed the shaky foundation on which so much growth was built. More than 50,000 people died as buildings toppled, crumbled or pancaked. Guclu Bahce, the mighty earthquake-proof complex, was among them. An estimated 65 people died there.

8 Are Dead in Shooting in Serbia, a Day After School Massacre (NYT) The Serbian police arrested a suspect early Friday after an hourslong overnight manhunt for a gunman who killed eight people and injured at least 14 others near Belgrade, according to Serbia’s Interior Ministry. The attack late Thursday was the nation’s second mass shooting in two days and rattled a country still reeling from an attack at a school that killed eight students and a security guard. Hundreds of police officers had gone door to door in the search for a 21-year-old male suspect, according to RTS, Serbia’s public broadcaster. They deployed helicopters and surrounded the area where they believed he was hiding, the report said. The gunman, who was in a moving vehicle, used an automatic weapon and fled the scene, according to RTS, which said the attack took place around Mladenovac, a municipality in the southern part of the capital, Belgrade.

Press group: China biggest global jailer of journalists (AP) China was the biggest global jailer of journalists last year with more than 100 behind bars, according to a press freedom group, as President Xi Jinping’s government tightened control over society. Xi’s government also was one of the biggest exporters of propaganda content, according to Reporters without Boarders. China ranked second to last on the group’s annual index of press freedom, behind only neighbor North Korea. The ruling Communist Party has tightened already strict controls on media in China, where all newspapers and broadcasters are state-owned. Websites and social media are required to enforce censorship that bans material that might spread opposition to one-party rule.

Israelis call out perks for ultra-Orthodox in latest protests (Washington Post) Israel’s protest movement, having forced the government to pause its attempt to overhaul the national judiciary system, pivoted to other targets in demonstrations across the country Thursday, including the exemption from military service and other special privileges long granted to the growing ultra-Orthodox community. Thousands marched for a “Day of Disruption to Demand Equality” focused on the unequal burdens of citizenship and status of the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredim as they are known in Israel. Ultra-Orthodox citizens are largely shielded from the country’s mandatory draft and educational standards and their families benefit from heavy public subsidies that allow boys and men to devote years to religious study instead of working and paying taxes in the mainstream economy. Demonstrators blocked roads, lined bridges and picketed the homes of cabinet members. While many still chanted against the judicial overhaul, which some ministers are seeking to revive, most focused on other concerns, including spiking inflation and rising crime. The anger against the special status of the Haredi has long been a dynamic in Israeli politics, but it has grown more intense as the community has ballooned to roughly 13 percent of Israel’s total population, making them the country’s fastest growing demographic.

Fighting rages in Khartoum, civilians complain of being forgotten (Reuters) Heavy gunfire echoed around Khartoum again on Friday as civilians trapped by fighting in the Sudanese capital said the army and rival paramilitary forces were ignoring their plight. “It’s been four days without electricity and our situation is difficult... We are the victims of a war that we aren’t a part of. No one cares about the citizen,” said Othman Hassan, 48, a resident of the southern outskirts of Khartoum. Despite multiple ceasefire declarations, the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appeared to be battling each other for control of territory in the capital ahead of proposed talks. The sudden collapse into warfare has killed hundreds, triggered a humanitarian disaster, sent an exodus of refugees to neighbouring states and risks dragging in outside powers, further destabilising an already restive region.

[archive-of-artprompts]

🏚 Betrayal at House on the Hill: Item Prompts 🏚

Send in a Number + Character/s, and I'll draw/write a scene inspired by the prompt! (Prompts from the Betrayal at House on the Hill strategy game)

Axe. A weapon. Very sharp.

Angel feather. A perfect feather fluttering in your hand.

Locket. A memento of love on a thin gold chain.

Dark dice. Are you feeling lucky?.

Revolver. A weapon. An old, potent-looking weapon.

Adrenaline shot. A syringe containing a strange fluorescent liquid.

Snake oil. The worn label has vague promises of renewed vigor. It doesn't smell poisonous.

Pickpocket's gloves. Helping yourself has never seemed so easy.

Dynamite. A fuse isn't lit... yet.

Armor. It's just prop armor from a Renaissance fair, but it's still metal.

Bell. A brass bell that makes a resonant clang.

Idol. Perhaps it's chosen you for some greater purpose. Like human sacrifice.

Music Box. A hand-crafted antique. It plays a haunting melody that gets stuck in your head.

Puzzle Box. There must be a way to open it.

Camcorder. Left by a previous explorer, there seems to be something on the tape. You should totally watch it.

Healing salve . A sticky paste in a shallow bowl.

Sacrificial dagger. A weapon. A twisted shard of iron covered in mysterious symbols and stained with blood.

Chainsaw. A weapon. Vroom, baby, vroom.

Device. A jumble of wires and glass instruments used to measure things that are not of this world.

Boomstick. A weapon. Rusted and well-used, someone took a hacksaw to the barrel. At least they left two good shells.

Blood dagger. A weapon. A nasty weapon. Needles and tubes extend from the handle... and plunge right into your veins.

Chalk. A simple drawing stick made of ground bone and wax.

Smelling salts. Whew, that's a lungful.

Candle. It makes the shadows move-- at least, you hope it's doing that.

Ceremonial robe. Not sure if it's for the sacrificer or the sacrificee.

Teapot. A porcelain teapot with a motif of delicate pink flowers. It grants wishes, at a price.

Blueprint. An old map of the house.

Effigy. Handmade with care, this doll is dressed in a tiny copy of your own clothes.

Amulet of the ages. Ancient silver and inlaid gems, inscribed with blessings.

Bottle. An opaque vile containing a black liquid.

Medical kit. A doctor's bag, depleted in some critical resources.

Lucky stone. A smooth, ordinary-looking rock. You sense it will bring you good fortune.

Rabbit's foot. Not so lucky for the rabbit.

[mariacallous]

A series of Russian drone and missile attacks beginning March 22 has destroyed much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The damage, which will cost billions of dollars and many months to repair, has crippled Ukraine’s ability to light and heat itself for the medium term and marks a major escalation in Russia’s ongoing invasion.

The latest wave of Russian airstrikes has been notable for its breadth. Virtually every one of Ukraine’s thermal power plants has been hit along with a series of substations. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, reports that two of its thermal power plants (TPP) are no longer operational, with repairs expected to take several years. A separate plant in Kharkiv has also been seriously damaged and will take years to repair, according to regional authorities.

The specific condition of additional Ukrainian power plants remains classified, but reports of recent blackouts in multiple major cities have underlined the extent of the threat to Ukraine’s power grid. In a move indicating the scale of the damage caused by recent Russian bombing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered an early end to the country’s heating season.

Russian targets in recent days have included the Dnipro Hydroelectric Dam, sparking fears of a possible ecological disaster. The dam itself has not collapsed, but the power plant was partially destroyed and pollutants are now reportedly leaking into the reservoir. Even more worryingly, the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost grid connectivity due to the attack, putting its cooling systems at risk of stopping. Energoatom called the situation “extremely dangerous.”

In a further escalation, Russia has also expanded its air offensive with attacks on Ukraine’s natural gas storage facilities. These facilities, which house large quantities of gas for European customers, had not previously been targeted in earlier Russian bombing campaigns. Although the storage facilities themselves are underground, the pumping stations that allow for the insertion and extraction of gas are not.

On March 24, Russia launched approximately 20 missiles and drones at the Bilche-Volitsko-Ugerskoye storage facility, which represents around half of Ukraine’s total storage capacity. Ukrainian state-owned gas company Naftogaz downplayed the extent of the damage but did acknowledge that repairs would be necessary. Naftogaz officials also sought to reassure European storage customers that all obligations would be met by Ukraine, regardless of the Russian airstrikes.

The recent wave of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system comes amid reports that the White House has been pressuring Kyiv to stop attacking Russian oil refineries due to concerns about the possible impact on oil prices ahead of the November 2024 US presidential election. Starting in January, Ukraine began a series of long-range drone strikes on refining facilities inside Russia. These attacks have succeeded in hurting Russia’s energy-dependent economy, with disruption reported to oil and oil product exports, gasoline and other fuel supplies in Russia, military fuel supplies, and Russian income from energy exports.

Global prices for crude oil and diesel, as well as other oil products, have risen in the wake of the Ukrainian attacks. This appears to be making US politicians nervous about the potential impact on their country’s forthcoming elections. Unsurprisingly, many in Kyiv have been outraged by the reported US efforts to effectively protect the Russian energy industry at a time when Moscow is bombing Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure and plunging entire cities into darkness. Ukrainian officials have responded by insisting Russian refineries are legitimate targets.

So far, there have been no reports of European leaders seeking to deter Ukraine from attacking Russia’s oil and gas industry, but that could change as the continent faces a range of looming geopolitical and energy market problems. Russia’s gas transit contract with Ukraine is set to expire in December 2024, with the Ukrainian authorities stating they will not seek an extension. With the vulnerability of Ukraine’s gas storage facilities now an issue thanks to recent Russian airstrikes, and with instability in the Middle East making Arabian Gulf LNG both less assured and much more expensive, Europe may soon begin to pressure Ukraine, too.

Each wave of Russian airstrikes makes Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction more challenging while narrowing the options available to the country. Without crucial US military aid that remains held up in Congress, and faced with hypocritical but likely mounting pressure from Western capitals to play nice with Russia on energy infrastructure while Russia decimates Ukraine’s power grid, the path forward is unclear.

Instead of artificial restrictions on their own ability to strike back, Kyiv desperately needs adequate air defense systems so Ukraine can protect its power plants from Russian assaults. In the meantime, the many Ukrainians who are working tirelessly to maintain their country’s battered energy systems have a long road ahead of them.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

One of Brazil’s Top Hedge Funds Stumbles With Record 13% Loss

One of Brazil’s best-performing hedge funds posted a record monthly loss in September, stung by plunging oil prices and surging global rates. 

The Vista Multiestrategia fund slumped 13% after fees last month, its biggest such decline since it was launched in 2015. Managed by Rio de Janeiro-based Vista Capital, it has a core bet on rising oil prices, and had been using positions that benefited from falling international rates as a hedge to protect against negative surprises on the demand side. 

“We were significantly wrong in the hedge choice,” the fund wrote in an investor note this week. A combination of oil slumping almost 20% in the past two months and the steepest US bond sell-off over the same period “is unprecedented in this century,” it told clients. 

Yields on the US 10-year Treasury jumped by 64 basis points last month, the most since 2009. The bond rout deepened as investors price in more aggressive rate increases from the Federal Reserve. 

Continue reading.

[clarkenstein8]

Why Gold? Why Gaia Assets, Inc?

As the dollar hit a multi month low versus the euro on Monday, February 26th, and oil continued its move up from $61 a barrel, gold hit a multi month high of $685.80 per ounce and has many seeing its mysterious $700 mark reachable. Since early January, gold has risen some 14.5%, leaving it about $45 away from barely a year's ago's 26-year high of $730. The falling dollar joined with meetings in different products, for example, oil and base metals have likewise improved visit site here the allure of investing in gold.

As per London-based Central Banking Distributions on Monday, an overview led among 47 central banks came about in very nearly the vast majority of banks expressing that they see "more than adequate extension for additional cash and resource expansion of unfamiliar trade saves," hence maintaining a positive point of view of investment in gold.

Gold has for quite some time been deemed as a place of refuge for investors. Since an investment holds its worth even in dubious monetary times, gold is consoling to those investors who are worried over plunging share prices or disappointments in different ventures. Numerous prognosticators highlight gold's consistent move in esteem over the beyond five to a decade as a central justification for accepting that gold will keep on ascending in esteem, outperforming the $700 mark toward Spring's end. Some even anticipate that it could reach $1000 per ounce before the current year's over. The truth of the matter is that the price of gold has stayed up with expansion for close to 200 years or somewhere in the vicinity, and it is understandably that gold has for quite some time been deemed as a place of refuge for investors. Since an investment holds its worth even in questionable financial times, gold is soothing to investors who are worried over plunging share prices or disappointments in different ventures.

Gaia Assets, Inc. (GAIA), an early improvement stage Nevada mining organization traded on OTC PINKSHEETS: (GIAS), has as of late framed an entirely possessed auxiliary in the Province of Arizona known as Gaia Investigation, Inc. to hold mining resources ascribed to its gold mining activities inside Arizona. The arrangement of Gaia Investigation, Inc. was a vital stage in obtaining the privileges to 482.66 sections of land of prime mining claims in Cochise District, Arizona (MHF property) as well as future acquisitions of prime designated regions. The MHF property is south of the popular Region Mine that is situated in Pearce Area, only east of the Dragoon Reach. Following finish of this procurement Gaia intends to start a forceful boring and mass inspecting program on the designated property, beginning this spring. The MHF property approaches water and power which will accelerate an opportunity to set up investigation.

One of the key properties that Gaia is situated to procure was once held by the St Nick Fe Pacific Gold Corp. in Cochise Province. This property is contiguous the Mexican Cap Property, which has drill demonstrated stores of approximately 400,000 ounces. Placer Arch spent over 1.9 million dollars directing these tests in the nineteen eighties. Gaia has laid out a functioning relationship with Thunder Ravine Assets Ltd (TGR) that holds options on a few different segments in the prompt region which likewise show high potential for improvement. Thunder Gorge Assets Ltd. Principal, Norm Pearson, Gaia's Senior Expert/Project Director, has more than 30 years experience in the mining industry as an administrator, prospector and inconvenience shooter. As per Pearson, the region is an amazing objective and ought to be penetrated and dug for hard rock gold, and furthermore assessed for the alluvial or placer gold that is available.

[thewatercolours]

Daventry Under Siege

I'm thinking of plunging Daventry headlong into a war.

Imagine a neighbouring kingdom turning its covetous eye on the valley. The land isn't a grand prize in itself, but perhaps it's strategically well-located for greater purposes.

Or, you know, they want the chest of limitless wealth. Perhaps they've tried stealing it multiple times, and every time been thwarted, so it becomes a "hand over the chest or you're going down" thing.

I think most of the good folks of Daventry would sooner hand it over than bring war on their tiny nation. But there's a slight problem. Daventry hasn't had their three missing treasures, including the chest, for quite some time. They've kept it quiet that they no longer have them, since Daventry is already in an extremely unstable position due to Edward's absence of leadership. When Daventry confesses this, the enemy does not believe.

Sir Graham is sent on an urgent quest to find the chest (I know that in KQ1 it's a single quest to find all three items, but hey, the reboot plays fast and loose with all kinds of things.) He finds it, but returns to find an invading source blocking the mountain passes, the town(s) taken, and his friends having taken refuge in the now-besieged castle. They are in no position to surrender. The enemy ruler has made no bones about the fact that a no-mercy policy is the price for defying them, rather than submitting the land and handing over the chest right away. Even if they handed the chest over now, it would win them no mercy.

Graham finds a secret way in to the castle, and at first thinks they can use it for evacuation, but soon realizes King Edward's health has come to a crisis - the consequences could be grave if they tried to move him. His loyal knights and guards decide there is only one thing for it - to stay and protect their king, no matter the cost. And many of the townsfolk decide to stay too - not to leave their king in his hour of greatest need.

And thus begins a great adventure, a chess game of a siege, with daring plots, disguise, infiltration, swordfighting, and many unusual uses for inventory items. I'd love to play around with the possibilities of a siege situation beyond the usual tropes - to take it beyond the realm of lots of static waiting and the occasional archery and boiling oil scene to make it more actively plotty. A siege situation is nice because it has what Agatha Christie called the advantage of the village - stories in a confined space where everyone lives in each others' pockets tend to have higher human drama, and also tend to force the writer to make interesting creative choices within that limited sphere of action. I'm thinking such a story would require an ending that featured both true personal sacrifice and a twist.

Further - most of my Graham scenes thus far can be sorted into two categories - gentle warmth like "Stargazers," "Crowning Moment," or even arguably the Well Story, and anxious rumination like Goblin Graham or some Frostburn scenes. I've been wanting to write a story where Graham gets to be more outgoing and adventurous, less angsty and reactive. Not because I don't enjoy writing/reading stories where the latter is a factor (see Goblin Graham,) but because some of my favourite aspects of his character are only on display when he's more secure and proactive. I'd love to see him facing heroic challenges in a similar frame of mind to Chapters 1 & 3 - there's struggle with himself, but also sufficient confidence for the kind of wild heroics we love in a certain kind of story. In others words, I'd love to write a piece that that has the spirit of Graham's Theme (the musical track.)

I doubt I will do as much with this as the impulse of the moment would like (and I have other projects to see to completion), which is partly why I am posting it here. But wouldn't that be a fun situation to set scenes in?

[fin-markets]

U.S. might still dodge a recession, according to Wall Street experts

While general public seems to believe that an economic downturn is around the corner, several big Wall Street firms have published optimistic outlooks in the recent days. Stifel analysts, , has published some very cheerful forecasts, indicating that the second half of 2022 will be much better than the first half for the economy as a whole. According to them, Oil prices will continue to fall and inflation should cool down by December, allowing the Federal Reserve to pause the aggressive rate hikes.

The central bank has begun to aggressively raise interest rates in an effort to tap down demand and cool the four decade high inflation seen in recent months. According to experts, the main reason to fear a recession is that the Fed could go too far (in increasing the interest rates) and trigger a broad downturn.

Recessions are most accurately described as a plunge in employment and "an inability of consumers and businesses to meet their financial obligations," Jonathan Golub, chief US market strategist at Credit Suisse, said in a July note, adding "neither of the conditions are present today." Other highly renowned Investment Banks - JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley - carry an optimistic view as well, indicating in their reports that the economy shows no evidence of actual weakness.

On the other hand, Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Fed, says It's "inevitable" that the economy plunges into a recession in 2023 as inflation proves harder to quash than expected. The Fed will have to prioritize fighting inflation over reaching maximum employment as it looks to avoid permanently faster price growth, Dudley added.

Thus, the only remaining fear, as previously stated, is that the Fed might go too far in its measures to control the inflation.

~Lakshya Kapoor