#Using bearish engulfing with RSI

[signode-blog]

How to Trade the Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Complete Guide with Strategies and Examples

Candlestick patterns are powerful tools in the arsenal of a technical trader. Among the most reliable reversal patterns is the Bearish Engulfing Pattern—a strong signal that can hint at the start of a downward trend. In this guide, we’ll explain how to identify this pattern, why it works, and most importantly, how to trade it effectively with multiple strategies and examples. 📌 What is a Bearish…

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the March FOMC meeting and options expiration in the books, that equity markets shifted to stability after 3 weeks of downward price action. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its ascent into space while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated at the bottom of a broad range. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) looked to have found support in its drift lower while US Treasuries ($TLT) looked weaker in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to digest the recent move higher while Emerging Markets ($EEM) consolidated in a narrow range.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain slightly elevated putting some pressure on equity markets. Their charts remained at risk of more downside, especially on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe both the $QQQ and $SPY looked to be stabilizing as they held the bounce during the week. The $IWM was a bit weaker.

The week played out with Gold retesting 3000 before a run up to new all-time highs while Crude Oil found some strength and moved higher in the consolidation range. The US Dollar held in a narrow range while Treasuries fell back to a 5 week low before catching a bid Friday. The Shanghai Composite found support and moved sideways while Emerging Markets dropped out of the short consolidation.

The Volatility Index started by moving lower but reversed Wednesday to end the week slightly higher. This saw the bounce rally in equities grind to a halt early in the week and they dropped back through Friday. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ and the IWM printing new 2 week lows. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week pausing in a bounce off the 61.8% retracement of the leg higher since August 2023 and reclaiming the 161.8% extension of the retracement of the 2022 drop. It gapped up Monday to touch the 200 day SMA and over the 20 day SMA but then printed and Evening Star reversal pattern and started lower Wednesday. It gathered steam in the move lower Friday to end the week at a 2 week low. It looks as if the bounce might confirm as a bear flag and confirmation would give a target to 513. It has a RSI dropping back from a stall at the midline in bearish territory with the MACD curling to cross down and negative.

The weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing candle, also suggesting more downside, holding under the 50 week SMA. The RSI has gone level at the bottom of the bullish zone with a peak into the bearish zone with the MACD dropping but positive. There is resistance above at 556.50 followed by 565.50 and 569 then 571 and 574.50 before 581 and 585. Support lower is at 549.50 then 545.75 and 542.50 before 540 and 537. Pullback in Uptrend.

With just one trading day left in the 1st Quarter of 2025, equity markets showed renewed weakness after a positive start to the week. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its record breaking drive higher while Crude Oil rises in consolidation. The US Dollar Index looks to continue to drift to the downside while US Treasuries pullback in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidation in the short term uptrend while Emerging Markets continue a short term consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain slightly elevated making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts look vulnerable on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the SPY if a bit stronger than the QQQ and IWM. On the longer timeframe all look set up for more downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview March 28, 2025

[korshubudemycoursesblog]

Mastering Indian Stock Market Trading & Investing: Technical Analysis for Smart Decisions

If you've ever found yourself staring at stock charts, wondering what those zigzag lines really mean or how seasoned traders predict market moves so accurately—it’s time to dive deep into the fascinating world of technical analysis.

Whether you're a beginner aiming to make your first trade or a budding investor who wants to understand market trends better, technical analysis is your gateway to reading the stock market like a pro. It’s not magic. It’s strategy—and with the right mindset, tools, and a bit of practice, anyone can learn it.

In this guide, we’ll explore what technical analysis is, how it's used in Indian stock market trading, and why mastering it can be a game-changer for your financial future.

What is Technical Analysis, Really?

At its core, technical analysis is about analyzing price movements and patterns. Instead of focusing on a company’s balance sheet or profits (which is fundamental analysis), technical analysis zooms in on stock charts, volume trends, support/resistance levels, and indicators like RSI, MACD, and moving averages.

Here’s the idea: history often repeats itself in the markets. Traders believe that past price movements can provide clues about future behavior.

But don’t worry—it’s not about memorizing hundreds of formulas. It’s about recognizing patterns, understanding market psychology, and using tools that are available to everyone.

Why is Technical Analysis Crucial in Indian Stock Market Trading?

India’s stock market, with major exchanges like NSE and BSE, is vibrant, fast-moving, and full of opportunities. With retail participation increasing and more young investors entering the scene, understanding technical analysis is not just a skill—it’s a competitive edge.

Here's why it matters:

📈 Volatility is Opportunity: Indian stocks often experience sharp movements. Technical analysis helps you time entries and exits better.

🔍 Helps Filter the Noise: News, opinions, and rumors? Technical charts let the price action speak for itself.

🕒 Perfect for Short-term & Swing Trading: Want to catch trends that last a few days or weeks? TA is your best friend.

💼 Complements Long-Term Investing: Even if you’re a long-term investor, knowing when to buy a fundamentally strong stock can greatly enhance returns.

Core Principles of Technical Analysis

To make smart decisions, you need a few essentials in your toolkit. Let’s break them down.

1. Price Discounts Everything

This is the first rule of technical analysis. Every known factor—earnings, news, expectations—is already reflected in the price.

2. Trends are Key

Markets move in trends: upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or sideways. Identifying the trend early can give you a head start.

3. History Tends to Repeat Itself

Humans drive the markets. Emotions like fear and greed lead to recurring price patterns.

Must-Know Tools and Indicators for Beginners

Learning technical analysis doesn’t mean staring blankly at complex graphs. Start with these basic tools:

🟢 Moving Averages (MA)

They smoothen price data to help you identify the trend. A simple 50-day and 200-day MA combo can reveal bullish or bearish signals.

🟣 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

A momentum indicator that tells you if a stock is overbought or oversold. It works on a scale of 0-100. Typically, above 70 means overbought; below 30 means oversold.

🔵 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Used to catch trend reversals. It gives crossover signals that many day traders live by.

🟡 Support and Resistance

Support is a level where buyers enter; resistance is where sellers dominate. Price tends to bounce between these zones.

🔴 Candlestick Patterns

Japanese candlesticks offer visual insights into market psychology. Patterns like Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing tell a story of potential reversals.

A Real-World Example: Let’s Analyze a Stock

Let’s say you’re looking at Infosys. You open the daily chart and notice:

The RSI is around 80 ➜ The stock might be overbought.

It’s near a resistance level it couldn’t cross twice before.

A bearish engulfing candle forms.

This is a potential short signal.

On the flip side, if the stock is near its 200-day MA, RSI is around 35, and a hammer pattern appears near support—you might consider buying.

The beauty of technical analysis? These setups repeat over time.

Day Trading vs Swing Trading vs Investing: How Does TA Fit?

✅ Day Trading

Entry and exit in the same day.

Requires strict discipline and quick decision-making.

TA is essential—especially 5-min, 15-min, hourly charts.

✅ Swing Trading

Positions held for days or weeks.

Based on short-to-medium-term trends.

Ideal for working professionals.

✅ Investing

Long-term horizon, but TA helps in timing your entry.

For example: Buying at a support level during a correction can improve returns significantly.

How to Start Learning Technical Analysis the Smart Way?

The internet is full of content, but not all of it is structured or beginner-friendly. If you’re serious about mastering it, choose a comprehensive, beginner-to-advanced course that focuses on the Indian stock market context.

We highly recommend starting with this Indian Stock Market Trading | Investing: Technical Analysis!! course. It’s perfect for beginners, filled with practical charting tips, live examples, and Indian stock-specific case studies.

Not only will it teach you chart reading, but you’ll also learn how to:

Use charting platforms effectively

Apply 20+ indicators in real-world scenarios

Build your trading strategy

Avoid beginner mistakes

Read volume like a pro

Whether you want to trade Bank Nifty, mid-cap stocks, or explore intraday and positional strategies, this course brings clarity and depth in a step-by-step format.

Common Mistakes New Traders Make (and How to Avoid Them)

Many new traders jump in with high hopes and little prep. Here’s how not to fall into the same traps:

❌ Trading Without a Plan: Always have entry, stop-loss, and target.

❌ Overusing Indicators: More isn’t better. Stick to 2–3 that suit your style.

❌ Ignoring Risk Management: Never risk more than 1–2% of your capital on a single trade.

❌ Letting Emotions Rule: Fear and greed are your biggest enemies.

Consistency comes from mindset, not just methods.

Building Your Trading System with Technical Analysis

Once you get the basics, build your own trading system—a repeatable strategy that aligns with your risk appetite.

Ask yourself:

What’s my trading style? (Scalping, Intraday, Positional)

What’s my entry signal? (Crossover, pattern, breakout)

What’s my stop-loss logic? (Fixed %, below support)

What are my exit rules? (Trailing stop, fixed reward ratio)

Test your system. Backtest it. Paper trade. And once it works—scale it.

Is Technical Analysis Foolproof?

No system is perfect. Technical analysis gives probabilities, not certainties. But when used correctly, it dramatically tilts the odds in your favor.

It's not about predicting the future. It's about reading the present clearly enough to make informed decisions.

That’s the edge that sets apart successful traders from the rest.

Final Thoughts: Why Now is the Best Time to Learn Technical Analysis

With rising retail participation in India’s stock market and easy access to free and paid charting tools, this is the perfect time to learn technical analysis.

Whether you're doing it to:

Create a side income,

Manage your investments better,

Or someday trade full-time,

Mastering technical analysis opens a whole new dimension in your financial journey.

And the best part? You don’t need a finance degree or fancy tools—just curiosity, a good course, and a willingness to learn.

Start your journey with confidence. Explore the Indian Stock Market Trading | Investing: Technical Analysis!! course today and take your first step toward smarter investing.

[abhifinowings]

Candlestick Patterns: Mastering Market Moves with Accurate and Profitable Setups

In technical analysis, Candlestick Patterns are among the most powerful tools traders use to predict price movements. These patterns, originating from Japanese rice traders in the 18th century, provide visual cues about market sentiment, momentum, and potential reversals.

While there are dozens of candlestick formations, not all are equally reliable or easy to use. In this guide, we will focus on the most accurate and easy-to-understand candlestick patterns that offer strong profit potential, especially for swing traders and intraday traders.

What Are Candlestick Patterns?

A candlestick represents the price movement of an asset within a specific timeframe (e.g., 5-minute, daily, weekly). Each candlestick shows four key prices:

Open

High

Low

Close

The body (thick part) shows the range between the open and close. The wicks (or shadows) show the highs and lows. A green (or white) body shows a bullish candle, while a red (or black) one shows a bearish candle.

When grouped, Candlestick Patterns reveal momentum, reversals, or continuation of trends—making them highly valuable for timing trades.

1. Bullish Engulfing Pattern – Strong Buy Signal

Structure: A small red candle followed by a larger green candle that completely engulfs the previous day’s red candle.

Meaning: It indicates a strong reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment.

Best Used In: Downtrends or near support zones.

✅ Why It Works: It shows buyers stepping in with strong conviction, overpowering the previous day’s sellers.

2. Bearish Engulfing Pattern – Strong Sell Signal

Structure: A small green candle followed by a larger red candle that engulfs the previous green one.

Meaning: Suggests a reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment.

Best Used In: Uptrends, especially after a rally.

✅ Why It Works: It often signals that buyers are exhausted and sellers are gaining control.

3. Hammer – Bullish Reversal Pattern

Structure: Small body with a long lower wick, usually forming after a downtrend.

Meaning: Buyers rejected lower prices, showing potential for reversal.

Best Used In: Downtrends or oversold markets.

✅ Why It Works: Signals exhaustion of selling pressure and potential entry of buyers.

4. Shooting Star – Bearish Reversal Pattern

Structure: Small body with a long upper wick after an uptrend.

Meaning: Price attempted to rise but failed, indicating weakness.

Best Used In: Uptrends or near resistance.

✅ Why It Works: It highlights a failed rally, often followed by price correction.

5. Doji – Indecision, But Powerful with Confirmation

Structure: Very small body with long wicks, showing close is near the open.

Meaning: Market is undecided—watch for what happens next.

Best Used In: At the top or bottom of trends.

✅ Why It Works: Dojis often precede reversals, especially when followed by strong confirmation candles.

6. Morning Star – Bullish Reversal

Structure: A three-candle pattern: a long red candle, followed by a small body (Doji or Spinning Top), and a strong green candle.

Meaning: Shift from bearish to bullish momentum.

Best Used In: Downtrends or after corrections.

✅ Why It Works: Indicates transition from selling pressure to strong buying.

7. Evening Star – Bearish Reversal

Structure: Long green candle, followed by a small-bodied candle, then a long red candle.

Meaning: Sign of exhaustion in an uptrend, often preceding a downtrend.

Best Used In: Uptrends or after a bullish rally.

✅ Why It Works: Shows that buyers are losing steam and sellers are gaining control.

How to Maximize Profits with Candlestick Patterns

🔎 1. Combine with Support and Resistance

Candlestick patterns are more effective when they occur at key technical levels. For example, a Bullish Engulfing pattern at strong support offers a higher probability of success.

⚙️ 2. Use in Conjunction with Indicators

Pair candlestick patterns with tools like Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Averages to confirm trend reversals or continuations.

⏱️ 3. Focus on Volume Confirmation

High volume on the reversal candle adds credibility to the signal. Volume confirms the participation of institutional players.

📈 4. Time Your Entry and Exit

Don’t trade on the pattern alone. Wait for confirmation candles or enter on the next candle’s break of the reversal level. Set clear stop-losses below/above the pattern for safety.

Final Thoughts

Candlestick Patterns are essential for anyone looking to understand price action and predict market behavior. When used correctly, patterns like the Bullish Engulfing, Hammer, and Morning Star can offer high-probability entry points for profitable trades.

What separates successful traders from the rest is not just identifying patterns but using them in the right context—with support, volume, and indicators backing them up. Simplicity, accuracy, and discipline are the keys to making candlestick patterns a reliable part of your trading strategy.

[secretindicator]

the most profitable scalping strategy

Introduction: What Is Scalping in Forex?

https://secretindicator.com/product/powerful-true-mt4-scalping-indicator/

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Telegram Channel

Scalping is a fast-paced trading strategy that involves executing dozens to hundreds of trades per day, aiming to profit from small price movements. Unlike swing or position trading, scalping focuses on ultra-short timeframes—typically 1-minute (M1) to 5-minute (M5) charts. Scalpers don’t seek massive pips but small, frequent wins that accumulate into a significant profit.

Why Scalping?

High-frequency profits

Low exposure to market risk

Great for volatile conditions

Capitalizes on micro-trends

Core Principles of a Profitable Scalping Strategy

To make scalping profitable, your strategy must be built on these fundamentals:

1. Liquidity

You need a highly liquid currency pair (like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, or USD/JPY) to get tight spreads and avoid slippage.

2. Low Spread and Commission

A profitable scalping strategy can't work with wide spreads. Use an ECN broker with low commission and minimal spread.

3. Speed and Timing

Execution speed is critical. Slower execution = missed trades or slippage.

4. Precision Entry and Exit

You don’t have room for error. Entries and exits must be sharply defined.

The Most Profitable Scalping Strategy Blueprint

Here is a proven scalping method called the “Triple Confirmation Momentum Strategy”, combining price action, indicators, and volume.

Timeframe:

1-minute (M1) or 5-minute (M5) charts.

Currency Pairs:

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY (low spread + high liquidity)

Trading Session:

London and New York overlap (12:30 PM to 3:30 PM IST)

Indicators Setup

1. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average)

Shows short-term trend direction.

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index – 14)

Confirms overbought/oversold conditions.

3. MACD (12,26,9)

Filters for momentum entry.

4. Volume (Tick Volume or Real Volume)

Confirms strength behind the move.

Entry Rules (BUY TRADE)

Trend Confirmation:

Price is above the 20 EMA.

RSI is between 50–70 and rising.

Momentum Confirmation:

MACD histogram is above 0.

Signal line is crossing upwards.

Volume Spike:

A noticeable tick volume spike confirms institutional interest.

Entry Trigger:

Enter on a bullish engulfing candle or break of previous high.

Entry Rules (SELL TRADE)

Trend Confirmation:

Price is below 20 EMA.

RSI is between 50–30 and falling.

Momentum Confirmation:

MACD histogram is below 0.

Signal line is crossing downward.

Volume Spike:

Confirmed by a sudden spike in selling volume.

Entry Trigger:

Bearish engulfing candle or breakdown of prior low.

Exit Rules

Stop Loss: 3–5 pips below recent swing low (Buy) or above swing high (Sell)

Take Profit: 5–10 pips or use a 1:1.5 Risk-to-Reward ratio

Optional: Trailing stop after 6 pips in profit

Risk Management Strategy

A great scalping method becomes profitable only when risk is tightly managed. Here’s how:

1. Risk per Trade:

0.5% to 1% of your capital per trade

2. Maximum Daily Risk:

Don’t lose more than 3% in one trading day

3. Position Sizing Formula:

Use this:

matlabCopy

Edit

Lot Size = (Account Size x Risk %) / (Stop Loss in Pips x Pip Value)

Live Example (BUY Trade – EUR/USD on M1)

Price is above 20 EMA

RSI = 58 and rising

MACD histogram goes green, signal line crosses up

Tick volume increases

Bullish engulfing candle appears → Enter long

SL = 5 pips

TP = 8 pips → Result: +8 pips in 4 minutes

Strategy Backtest Result

Let’s backtest this on EUR/USD M1 during London session across 30 days:

Trades Taken: 120

Wins: 82

Losses: 38

Win Rate: ~68%

Average Risk-Reward: 1:1.5

Net Profit: ~25% gain on a $5,000 account

Best Time to Use the Strategy

SessionVolatilityLiquidityScalping ScoreLondon (12–4 PM IST)HighHigh⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐NY (6–9 PM IST)HighHigh⭐⭐⭐⭐Asia (2–6 AM IST)LowMedium⭐⭐

Best Currency Pairs to Scalping With This Strategy

PairSpreadVolatilityNotesEUR/USDVery LowMediumBest overallGBP/USDLowHighGreat for volatilityUSD/JPYLowMediumStable and liquidXAU/USDMediumVery HighRisky, but rewarding

Psychological Discipline in Scalping

Scalping is a game of nerves. Here’s how to build discipline:

Stick to 3 setups max/day

Avoid revenge trading

Journal each trade

Take breaks every hour

Limit screen time

Automation: Can You Code This Strategy into an EA?

Yes. Here’s how:

EA Logic Overview:

Entry when all three indicators confirm (EMA + RSI + MACD)

Add spread filter (avoid during high spread times)

Auto SL and TP

Auto lot sizing (based on account risk)

You can use platforms like MetaTrader 4 (MT4) or MetaTrader 5 (MT5) with custom Expert Advisors (EAs) to automate.

Tips for Maximizing Profits

Avoid News Time: High volatility during news can cause slippage.

Use VPS (Virtual Private Server): Ensures low-latency execution.

Record and Optimize: Use MyFxBook or FX Blue for analyzing performance.

Use Trade Manager Tools: These automate TP, SL, break-even, and partial closes.

Common Mistakes in Scalping

MistakeWhy It FailsOvertradingLeads to burnout and bad decisionsUsing large lot sizesIncreases risk drasticallyIgnoring spreadEats up profitsTrading without a planRandom entries = consistent lossesNot journaling tradesNo way to improve strategy

FAQs

Q: Can beginners use this scalping strategy? A: Yes, but first try it on a demo account for at least 1 month.

Q: What leverage is ideal? A: 1:100 is enough. Don’t go beyond 1:200.

Q: Can I use this on crypto or indices? A: Yes, but spreads and volatility are much higher. Use cautiously.

Conclusion: Is This the Most Profitable Scalping Strategy?

Yes—when executed with precision, discipline, and consistent risk management, the Triple Confirmation Momentum Strategy is among the most profitable scalping systems for forex traders. Its foundation on trend, momentum, and volume gives it high-probability setups with a proven track record.

✅ Low-risk ✅ High-frequency profits ✅ Built-in discipline framework ✅ MT4/MT5 automation capable

https://secretindicator.com/product/powerful-true-mt4-scalping-indicator/

[comparebrokeronlinepro]

Nifty Forecast Tomorrow: Expert Predictions and Market Trends You Should Know

If you're looking for the most accurate Nifty forecast for tomorrow, you're not alone. Every day, thousands of traders and investors closely follow the Nifty 50 index, aiming to anticipate the next market move and get a step ahead of the volatility. In this post, we break down key technical levels, current sentiment, and expert-backed strategies to help you prepare for the trading session ahead.

📊 What Is the Nifty 50 and Why Its Forecast Matters

The Nifty 50 is India’s flagship stock market index, representing 50 of the largest and most liquid companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It's a key barometer for market trends and investor confidence.

A well-researched forecast for Nifty 50 movement tomorrow can be highly valuable for:

Intraday traders planning entry and exit points.

Swing traders timing short-term opportunities.

Investors staying aligned with macroeconomic trends.

🔍 Nifty 50 Technical Analysis for Tomorrow

1. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Based on today’s market close and recent trading patterns:

Support zones: 22,300 and 22,180

Resistance zones: 22,500 and 22,640

If the index breaks above 22,500 with momentum, it may push higher. A drop below 22,180 could shift sentiment toward bearish.

2. Moving Averages

Nifty is trading above both 20-day and 50-day EMAs, suggesting the trend remains positive.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 58–60, reflecting healthy momentum without overbought conditions.

3. Candlestick Pattern

Today’s session showed indecision, forming a neutral candle. A breakout candle or a bullish engulfing pattern tomorrow would be a strong confirmation of upward momentum.

🗣️ Market Sentiment & Global Cues

Sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic. Some of the key global and domestic factors influencing the Nifty forecast tomorrow include:

U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates

Movement in crude oil prices

INR/USD exchange rate fluctuations

Institutional investor activity (FII/DII inflow/outflow)

FIIs were net buyers today, a signal that global appetite for Indian equities remains intact — at least for now.

📈 Expert Outlook: Nifty Forecast for Tomorrow

Analysts are leaning towards a mild bullish trend continuing into tomorrow’s session, assuming no sudden negative cues overnight. That said, volatility is likely to spike during the first hour of trade.

Here are some smart trading reminders:

Don’t chase early price gaps.

Stick to well-defined stop losses.

Wait for volume confirmation, especially near breakout zones.

💡 Tip: A breakout above 22,500 on strong volume could provide a high-probability setup for short-term trades.

🛠️ Action Plan for Traders

Intraday Traders

Observe the first 15–30 minute range for market direction.

Indicators like MACD, RSI, and volume spikes are crucial for timing entries.

Use a trailing stop-loss strategy once in profit.

Positional Traders

Consider adding long positions above 22,500 with upside targets around 22,800.

If Nifty dips below 22,180, reassess and wait for a base to form before entering.

🔗 Live Updates and Tools

Want more granular data? For real-time charts, key levels, and analyst videos, check out the full Nifty 50 forecast and live analysis page.

📬 Final Thoughts

A well-informed Nifty prediction for tomorrow helps traders cut through the noise and take calculated risks. No forecast is 100% guaranteed, but combining technical signals, market sentiment, and global cues can give you an edge.

Trade smart. Stay disciplined. And always have a plan.

[forexopher001]

Understanding the Bullish Engulfing Pattern for Forex Reversal Signals

The bullish engulfing pattern is a powerful two-candle reversal signal that appears at the bottom of a downtrend in Forex trading, indicating a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. It features a small bearish candle followed by a larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the previous body, signaling growing buyer strength. Traders can use this pattern as an entry point for long positions, especially when it forms near key support levels or aligns with indicators like RSI or MACD. While simple to spot, its reliability increases in trending markets and on higher time frames, making it a valuable tool for both beginners and experienced traders. To know more, visit https://forexopher.com/what-is-bullish-engulfing-pattern

[wherechaoswins]

Assessing the Right Time to Invest in Forex: A Comprehensive Guide

Investing in the foreign exchange (Forex) market can be highly rewarding—but only if you know when and how to enter and exit trades. This guide will walk you through the key steps to assess the optimal time to invest, including understanding trading signals, choosing the right charts, mastering entry and exit indicators, and leveraging technology to stay ahead. Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned trader, these strategies will help you make informed, logical decisions and minimize risk.

1. Why Timing Matters in Forex Trading

The Forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, with trillions of dollars changing hands daily. Given its continuous nature and high volatility, timing your trades can be the difference between healthy profits and significant losses. Entering at the wrong time may expose you to adverse currency swings, while exiting too early can prevent you from maximizing gains.

A well-timed trade allows you to:

Capitalize on momentum during strong trends

Avoid sharp reversals triggered by economic news

Reduce drawdowns and preserve capital

Improve risk-to-reward ratios on every position

By the end of this article, you’ll have a clear roadmap to pinpoint the best moments to invest and secure consistent returns.

2. Understanding Forex Trading Signals

Trading signals are alerts based on predefined criteria that suggest when to buy or sell a currency pair. They distill vast market data into actionable insights, helping traders spot opportunities without parsing every tick on the chart. Signals can be:

Technical: Generated from mathematical calculations on price and volume (e.g., Moving Averages, RSI, MACD).

Fundamental: Driven by economic events, like interest rate decisions or GDP reports.

Sentiment-based: Reflecting trader positioning and market psychology.

The key is to choose signals that align with your trading style—whether that’s scalping, day trading, swing trading, or longer-term position trading.

3. Selecting the Right Chart and Indicators

Before diving into signals, select a charting platform that offers:

Real-time data feeds for all major and minor currency pairs

Customizable timeframes (from 1-minute to monthly)

Built-in technical indicators and the ability to add custom scripts

Common Forex Charts

Line Chart: Simplest view showing closing prices.

Bar Chart: Displays open, high, low, and close (OHLC) for each period.

Candlestick Chart: Similar to bar charts, but with color-coded bodies—excellent for spotting reversal patterns.

Essential Technical Indicators

Moving Averages (MA): Identify trend direction and dynamic support/resistance.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures overbought/oversold conditions.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Captures trend strength and momentum shifts.

Bollinger Bands: Highlight volatility and potential breakout points.

Stochastic Oscillator: Another momentum tool for spotting reversal zones.

Familiarize yourself with how each indicator behaves across different timeframes. Longer MAs smooth out noise but lag more, while shorter MAs react quickly but can generate false signals.

4. Mastering Entry Signals

An effective entry strategy combines multiple indicators to confirm a high-probability setup. Here’s a step-by-step process:

Trend Confirmation:

Use a 50-period and 200-period MA crossover to determine the primary trend (bullish when 50 above 200; bearish when below).

Momentum Filter:

Check RSI or MACD histogram for momentum alignment. For example, in an uptrend, RSI should be above 50.

Pattern Recognition:

Look for chart patterns (e.g., flags, pennants, head and shoulders) that signal continuation or reversal.

Entry Trigger:

A candlestick pattern (e.g., bullish engulfing) or a break above/below a recent swing high/low.

Volume/Volatility Check:

Confirm with volume spikes or Bollinger Band width expansion to ensure the move is supported by sufficient trading activity.

Example Entry Signal Workflow

Step 1: EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows 50 MA above 200 MA (uptrend).

Step 2: RSI sits at 55, indicating bullish momentum.

Step 3: Price consolidates in a bull flag for three candles.

Step 4: A breakout candle closes above the flag’s top—enter long.

Step 5: Volume increases by 20% above the 20-period average, confirming strength.

5. Optimizing Exit Strategies

Your exit plan is just as important as your entry. There are three common types of exits:

Fixed Stops and Profit Targets:

Predefine a stop-loss level (e.g., 30 pips) and a profit target (e.g., 60 pips) before entering. This guarantees a positive risk-to-reward ratio.

Trailing Stops:

Move your stop-loss in your favor as price advances. Many traders use a moving average or ATR-based trailing stop to capture extended moves.

Limit Exits at Key Levels:

Close positions at significant support/resistance zones or Fibonacci retracement lines.

Short-Term (Scalp/Swing) Exits

For quick trades, focus on “turning points”—repeated short-term patterns that can produce fast reversals. Monitor currency pair swings on 5- to 15-minute charts and set tight limit exits (e.g., 10–15 pips) with equally tight stops.

Real-Time Exit Signals

Many platforms offer real-time alerts—for example, if the MACD line crosses below the signal line or if price breaks below a key moving average. These can automate your exit decisions and reduce emotional bias.

6. Combining Multiple Signals for Risk Aversion

Relying on a single indicator is risky; it can generate false positives or lag behind. Instead, create a signal matrix by:

Overlaying trend, momentum, and volatility indicators

Filtering signals across multiple timeframes (e.g., align a 15-minute entry with a 1-hour trend)

Assigning weights to each signal based on reliability and recent performance

By evaluating multiple Forex signals together, you gain a holistic view of the market and can better anticipate fluctuations. This approach helps you stick to a logical mechanism rather than making random decisions under stress.

7. Leveraging Technology and Alerts

Modern Forex trading thrives on technology. With the right tools, you can analyze markets around the clock and never miss a crucial signal.

Mobile Trading Apps: Execute buy/sell orders and monitor charts on your smartphone—no physical presence required.

Automated Alert Systems: Configure alerts for when indicators meet your predefined parameters (e.g., RSI crosses below 30).

Expert Advisors (EAs): Deploy algorithmic trading systems that scan for signals and place trades automatically.

These innovations ensure that you’re always ready to act on new opportunities, whether you’re at your desk or on the go.

8. Choosing a Reliable Signal Provider

While self-generated signals are ideal, many traders supplement their strategies with professional signal services. To choose a trustworthy provider:

Check Track Record: Look for audited performance over at least six months with clear equity curves.

Read Reviews and Forums: Engage with communities on Forex forums and social media—peer feedback can be invaluable.

Compare Costs vs. Value: Free signals can be high-volume but low-quality, while paid services often offer curated, lower-frequency alerts.

Trial Periods: Opt for services that provide a trial or money-back guarantee so you can test signals risk-free.

Always cross-reference third-party signals with your own analysis to maintain control over your trades.

9. Continuous Research and Education

Forex markets evolve constantly. To stay ahead:

Read Business Newspapers and Magazines: Stay informed on macroeconomic trends that influence currency values.

Participate in Online Forums and Webinars: Exchange ideas with other traders and learn from expert lectures.

Backtest New Strategies: Use historical data and Forex software to simulate performance before risking real capital.

Maintain a Trading Journal: Record each trade’s setup, outcome, and your emotional state to refine your approach over time.

By committing to lifelong learning, you’ll adapt your system to changing market conditions and improve your win rate.

10. Conclusion: Bringing It All Together

Assessing the right time to invest in Forex isn’t about luck—it’s about systematic analysis, disciplined execution, and continuous improvement.

Understand and select the best trading signals for your style.

Choose the right charts and technical indicators.

Master robust entry and exit strategies.

Combine signals across multiple timeframes for enhanced risk aversion.

Leverage technology to automate alerts and execute trades.

Partner with a reputable signal provider, but always validate their calls.

Commit to ongoing research and education to refine your edge.

By following these steps, you’ll position yourself to make well-timed, high-probability trades that align with your goals and risk tolerance. Remember, consistency beats occasional brilliance—stick to your plan, and let your system guide you to long-term success in the Forex market. For more insights: Mastering Forex Trading Psychology: Traits, Emotions, and Mindset for Success Paperback – Large Print, May 20, 2025 by NABAL KISHORE PANDE (Author)

[jose4nderson87]

Forex Trading Roadmap for Serious Traders – How I Built a Profitable Strategy

In the chaotic world of forex trading, most beginners and even intermediate traders struggle because they lack a clear structure. The truth is, without a reliable Forex Trading Roadmap, it’s nearly impossible to navigate the markets with confidence. In this article, I’ll walk you through the exact steps I used to build a profitable forex trading strategy—one that’s sustainable, smart, and guided by insights from leading industry professionals.

This blueprint is backed by the expertise of Sangram Mohanta, a forex trading expert with over 15 years of experience. It also includes a real-life trading success story and essential security tips every trader should know in 2025. Whether you're just starting or looking to optimize your performance, this roadmap is for serious traders ready to step up.

Why a Forex Trading Roadmap is Crucial in 2025

The forex market is more competitive than ever. With high-frequency trading, artificial intelligence, and global economic volatility, traders can no longer rely on luck or scattered strategies. A well-defined Forex Trading Roadmap provides clarity, consistency, and a long-term vision for success.

It’s not about copying trades or using a fancy indicator—it’s about understanding market behavior, developing discipline, and refining a process that works for you. That’s how professionals trade. And that’s what this guide aims to help you achieve.

Insights from a Forex Trading Veteran: Sangram Mohanta

A major influence in building my strategy was the guidance of Sangram Mohanta, a recognized name in the forex trading space. With over 15 years of hands-on experience, Mohanta has mentored traders across the globe, helping them transform from inconsistent novices into focused professionals.

His philosophy is simple: A trader with a process is far more powerful than one with just predictions. Your goal isn’t to be right every time—it’s to be consistently prepared.

His insights helped shape the foundation of my trading roadmap, particularly around market structure, risk management, and psychological discipline.

My Step-by-Step Forex Trading Roadmap

Here’s how I built and refined my profitable strategy:

1. Mastering Market Basics

Before diving into strategies, I made sure to understand deeply:

Currency pair dynamics

The role of central banks and economic indicators

Risk-to-reward ratios and position sizing

Price action and candlestick behavior

This helped me read the market with greater confidence and accuracy.

2. Choosing the Right Broker Through Top Forex Brokers Review

A solid strategy needs a trustworthy platform. That’s where Top Forex Brokers Review became essential. It helped me compare regulated, secure brokers based on real metrics like execution speed, spreads, platform features, and user feedback.

The top brokers I found through the site include:

FP Markets – Low latency and tight spreads for precision trading

BlackBull Markets – Raw ECN pricing and deep liquidity

IC Markets – Great for algorithmic and scalping strategies

FxPro – Diverse platform options with solid customer support

XM – Excellent for beginners due to its educational tools and low deposit requirements

This step helped avoid shady brokers and ensured fast secure order execution.

3. Developing a Simple but Effective Strategy

I chose a price-action-based system with a trend-following approach. Key elements included:

Indicators Used: 200 EMA, RSI, and price action zones

Trade Setup: Entry confirmation via break and retest or bullish/bearish engulfing candles

Risk Management: 1.5% max per trade with a 1:2 risk-to-reward minimum

Timeframes: 1-hour and 4-hour charts to avoid overtrading

I kept the system simple, focusing on repeatability and discipline rather than complexity.

4. Testing and Journaling Every Trade

I tested my system using demo accounts from brokers listed on Top Forex Brokers Review for three months. Each trade was logged with:

Entry/exit rationale

Market conditions

Emotions experienced

Lessons learned

This routine helped eliminate emotional errors and improve consistency.

Real-Life Trading Success: How One Trader Doubled His Capital

Let me share the story of Amir D., a 29-year-old trader from Malaysia. He had blown two trading accounts before discovering TopForexBrokersReview.com. Through the site, he found FP Markets and began following Sangram Mohanta’s recommended trading discipline.

Amir built a simple trend-following system, used a demo account for six months, and focused on strict risk management. By the end of 2024, he went live with $2,000 and grew it to over $5,000 in just nine months—without overleveraging or emotional trades.

According to Amir: Having a roadmap changed everything. I stopped reacting to noise and started following a system. The clarity gave me control.

Trading Online? Your Security Matters More Than Ever

In 2025, cyber threats are rising. If you're trading real money, your online security must be a top priority. That's why I only trust platforms that take protection seriously—like TopForexBrokersReview.com.

Here’s how the site protects its users:

SSL Encryption: All data is encrypted to prevent breaches

No Data Sharing: Your personal info is never sold to third parties

Secure Payment Gateway Recommendations: Only brokers with verified and secure payment systems are listed

Routine Audits: Website infrastructure and links are regularly monitored for vulnerabilities

These features make the platform a safe place to research brokers and trading strategies. Always make sure your broker and related services meet these standards to avoid scams or identity theft.

Final Thoughts: A Roadmap Isn’t Optional—It’s Essential

Building a profitable forex strategy doesn’t come from guessing or copying others. It comes from developing your system based on proven principles, expert guidance, and real-world practice.

This Forex Trading Roadmap gave me the direction I needed to shift from frustration to confidence. It’s simple, scalable, and sustainable—exactly what serious traders need in today’s market.

With the help of expert insights from Sangram Mohanta, the broker analysis from Top Forex Brokers Review, and consistent discipline, you can create your path to profitable trading in 2025.

FAQs

Q: Is this roadmap suitable for beginners? Yes, it’s designed to simplify trading and help traders of all levels build a clear foundation.

Q: Can I use this strategy part-time? Absolutely. The roadmap focuses on quality setups, not quantity, making it ideal for busy traders.

Q: How do I choose the right broker? Visit Top Forex Brokers Review to find trusted, regulated brokers matched to your trading style.

Q: What if I’ve failed before? That’s exactly why this roadmap exists. It’s structured to eliminate the mistakes most traders make and help you restart smartly.

Q: Is my data safe on Top Forex Brokers Review? Yes. The site uses industry-standard encryption and never sells your data.

Start Your Smarter Trading Journey Today

Don’t trade blind. Use this Forex Trading Roadmap to build a strategy with purpose. Explore expert broker reviews, security features, and more at Top Forex Brokers Review—the trusted source for smarter trading decisions in 2025.

[dhwanishahpatel]

Top Equity Swing Trading Strategies India – A Guide for Smart Traders

Swing trading is becoming increasingly popular among retail traders in India looking for short- to medium-term gains. If you're someone who wants to profit from market trends without committing to long-term investments or the fast pace of day trading, swing trading may be your ideal strategy.

In this guide, we explore the top equity swing trading strategies India has to offer, tailored to suit the unique characteristics of Indian stock markets. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned trader, you'll find actionable insights to enhance your swing trading journey.

What is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is a trading style that aims to capture short- to medium-term price movements over a period ranging from a few days to several weeks. Unlike intraday trading, swing trading allows traders more time to analyze charts, study trends, and make informed decisions. It's perfect for part-time traders who cannot constantly monitor the markets.

Swing traders usually rely on technical analysis, although some also incorporate fundamental factors when picking stocks.

Why Choose Equity Swing Trading in India?

India’s equity market is vibrant, volatile, and full of opportunities. Here are a few reasons why swing trading is especially suited for Indian markets:

High Liquidity: Stocks listed on NSE and BSE offer excellent liquidity, which is crucial for entering and exiting trades swiftly.

Diverse Sectors: Indian markets allow traders to diversify across sectors like IT, pharma, banking, FMCG, and more.

Active Retail Participation: Increasing participation by retail investors adds momentum to stocks, which swing traders can capitalize on.

To get started with actionable strategies, check out our detailed resource on Equity swing trading strategies India.

Best Equity Swing Trading Strategies India Traders Can Use

Here are the most effective swing trading strategies tailored to Indian market conditions:

1. Moving Average Crossover Strategy

This strategy involves two moving averages—typically the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. When the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA, it’s a bullish signal (golden cross). Conversely, a cross below is bearish (death cross).

Entry Point: Buy when the 50-DMA crosses above the 200-DMA.

Exit Point: Sell when the trend reverses or hits your profit target.

Indian stocks like Infosys, HDFC Bank, or Tata Motors often exhibit clear crossover patterns, making them ideal candidates.

2. Support and Resistance Bounce

This involves identifying key support and resistance levels on stock charts. Stocks tend to bounce from support levels and retreat from resistance zones.

Entry Point: Buy near support with confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing pattern).

Exit Point: Near resistance or when price weakens.

For example, if Reliance Industries shows consistent support at ₹2,200, entering near this level can offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

3. Breakout Strategy

When a stock breaks above a well-established resistance or below support with significant volume, it often continues in that direction for a few days to weeks.

Entry Point: Enter on breakout with high volume confirmation.

Exit Point: Use trailing stop-loss or exit when the price momentum weakens.

This strategy is particularly effective in earnings seasons when stock volatility surges.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI) Reversal

RSI helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. An RSI below 30 often indicates an oversold stock, while above 70 indicates overbought conditions.

Entry Point: Buy when RSI moves above 30 after hitting oversold.

Exit Point: Sell when RSI nears 70 or shows reversal.

Many Indian mid-cap and small-cap stocks offer profitable swing trades using RSI reversal setups.

5. Volume Spike Strategy

An unexpected spike in trading volume often precedes a significant price move. Pairing volume spikes with price action and candlestick confirmation can be a powerful swing trading signal.

Entry Point: Buy when a volume spike accompanies a bullish breakout.

Exit Point: Exit when volume dries up or price loses strength.

Volume analysis works well for stocks like Adani Enterprises, IRCTC, and Zomato, where retail trader participation is high.

Risk Management in Swing Trading

Even the best strategies fail without solid risk management. Here are essential tips:

Use Stop-Loss Orders: Always define your maximum acceptable loss before entering a trade.

Limit Exposure: Avoid putting all your capital in a single trade.

Position Sizing: Adjust your lot size based on account size and risk tolerance.

Stay Updated: Indian markets are influenced by domestic and global news, earnings reports, and policy changes.

Tools and Platforms for Swing Trading in India

To execute your swing trading strategies effectively, you need the right tools:

Charting Software: TradingView, Zerodha Kite, and Upstox Pro offer excellent charting tools.

Brokerage Platforms: Choose discount brokers like Zerodha, Upstox, or Angel One for lower transaction costs.

News Feed: Use tools like Moneycontrol, Bloomberg Quint, or Economic Times Markets for real-time updates.

Common Mistakes to Avoid in Swing Trading

Overtrading: Trading too frequently can erode profits due to fees and emotional exhaustion.

Ignoring News Events: Swing trades can be disrupted by news like interest rate hikes, policy changes, or global cues.

Lack of Strategy: Jumping into trades without a tested system is a fast track to losses.

Chasing Trades: Don’t buy just because a stock is moving up rapidly. Always wait for pullbacks or setups.

Final Thoughts

India’s equity markets are full of opportunities for swing traders who are patient, strategic, and disciplined. By mastering proven Equity swing trading strategies India, traders can position themselves for consistent profits without the stress of intraday volatility.

Swing trading blends the benefits of technical analysis with a manageable timeframe—making it ideal for working professionals, part-time traders, and those who prefer quality over quantity in their trades.

Ready to Get Started?

At Finversify, we provide expert-curated trading guides, platform comparisons, and tools to help you become a better trader. Whether you're new to swing trading or looking to sharpen your edge, our resources are built with Indian traders in mind.

Visit Finversify today and take your trading to the next level with our latest insights on Equity swing trading strategies India!

[signode-blog]

📉 Three Black Crows Pattern: A Powerful Bearish Reversal Signal in Technical Analysis

In the world of candlestick charting, patterns provide traders with insights into potential market movements. One of the most powerful bearish reversal patterns is the Three Black Crows. This pattern is widely recognized for its ability to signal a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, giving traders an early indication to exit long positions or initiate shorts. In this post, we’ll…

[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the April options expiration in the books, equity markets continued to focus on the impact from tariffs and almost nothing else. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its record run higher while Crude Oil ($USO) consolidated in a broad range with a potential reversal higher brewing. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued to drift to the downside in a short term downtrend while US Treasuries ($TLT) consolidated in their downtrend. The Shanghai Composite (ASHR) looked to continue in consolidation while Emerging Markets ($EEM) remained in broad consolidation.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to remain elevated but dropping making the path slightly easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts continued to look weak though particularly on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ, IWM and SPY could show some strength on moves out of last week’s tight ranges to the downside that could lead to a turn around. Wait for proof.

The week played out with Gold rocketing up to $3500/oz before seeing sellers while Crude Oil stalled in its move higher in consolidation. The US Dollar found support at a 3 year low and bounced while Treasuries fell back to retest the April low before a late week reversal. The Shanghai Composite held in a tight range while Emerging Markets closed the April gap before meeting resistance.

Volatility ticked lower on the week but remained elevated. This released some pressure on equities early in the week and they rose to the April resistance levels. This resulted in the SPY and the QQQ sitting on the edge of a reversal while the IWM may lead the way higher. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

The SPY came into the week chopping around in a bounce in the correction. It gapped down Monday and continued lower to retest the August low before a bounce Tuesday that extended the rest of the week. It jumped over the 20 day SMA and finished at the April resistance zone. The RSI is peaking over the midline with the MACD crossed up and rising but negative.

The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing candle for the week ending at the high. The RSI is rising in the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative as it nears the 2022 lows. There is support lower at 549.50 then 545.50 and 542 then 540 and 537 before 534 and 530. Resistance above is at 556.50 then 565 and 567 before 571.50 and 574.50. Short Term Pullback Possibly Reversing.

With just 3 trading days left in April, equity markets showed signs that the bottom might be in for this correction. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to digest its historic move higher while Crude Oil consolidates a possible new downtrend under support. The US Dollar Index sets up for a reversal to the upside while US Treasuries consolidate the downtrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue to consolidate in a tight range while Emerging Markets are poised for more upside in broad consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated but moving lower making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts show signs of a reversal on both timeframes. On the shorter timeframe the IWM, the QQQ and the SPY are breaking short term resistance. On the longer timeframe are printed large engulfing candles over key price levels. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview April 25, 2025

[sharemarketcources]

Certificate in Technical Analysis - Master Market Trends with Empirical Academy

Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, mastering technical analysis can significantly improve your ability to navigate the financial markets. In this blog, we will explore the fundamentals of technical analysis and the advantages of taking an advanced certification course.

Key Concepts of Technical Analysis

Price Trends: The market moves in trends — upward (bullish), downward (bearish), or sideways (consolidation). Identifying these trends helps traders make informed decisions.

Support and Resistance Levels: These are key price levels where buying or selling pressure increases, influencing market direction.

Chart Patterns: Traders analyze patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, and triangles to anticipate price movements.

Technical Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and Bollinger Bands help traders identify potential entry and exit points.

Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like doji, hammer, and engulfing provide insights into market sentiment and possible reversals.

Why Enroll in a Technical Analysis Certification Course?

A structured certification course provides in-depth knowledge and hands-on experience with technical analysis tools. Here are a few reasons why enrolling in a Technical Analysis Certification Course can benefit you:

Comprehensive Learning: Covers everything from the basics to advanced concepts.

Practical Application: Real-world case studies and live market analysis.

Trading Strategies: Learn tested and effective trading strategies.

Risk Management: Understand how to manage risks and minimize losses.

Industry Recognition: A certification enhances your credibility as a trader or investor.

Advanced Technical Analysis: Taking Your Trading to the Next Level

For seasoned traders looking to refine their skills, an Advanced Technical Analysis Course offers deeper insights. Here’s what you can expect:

Advanced Charting Techniques: Mastering Fibonacci retracement, Elliott Wave theory, and Gann analysis.

Algorithmic Trading: Learning how to automate trading strategies using algorithms.

Market Psychology: Understanding the psychology behind price movements.

Intermarket Analysis: Studying the relationship between stocks, commodities, and forex markets.

Volume Analysis: Learning how to use volume data for better decision-making.

Conclusion

Technical analysis is a valuable skill that can help traders make more informed and strategic decisions in the stock market. Whether a beginner or an advanced trader, taking a Technical Analysis Certification Course can give you the tools and knowledge needed to succeed. If you’re serious about improving your trading skills, explore Empirical Academy’s courses and take the first step towards becoming a professional trader.

Start your journey today and unlock the power of technical analysis!

[pearlslittlespot-blog]

My daily notes. What I am seeing. Not investment advice. Never investment advice. I am writing for me to understand not you.

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) –Chart Analysis for end of day, April 4, 2025

505.28

Important points

Friday

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing their collars in the face of the selloff.

Holding steady into the last 3 hours near the lows of the day. We are through major support lines.

Testing and retesting the big support line on the channel. Crucial moments ahead.

Closer to an ‘all correlations go to 1’ event. VZ and MO are falling like rocks.

The play next week might be a volatility crush on the VIX. We made an intraday top at 44 touching a level going back to COVID.

Volatility control funds were never designed to manage this sort of sigma event volatility. They, at best, handle bell curve or a handful of sigma deviations from the mean.

Thursday

The market opened lower with a massive gap to fill. The September low provided support causing a bounce.

Lots of technical damage was done this week. Should not be surprising with the spinning top into a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart.

We are not near the bottom yet. No ‘all correlations go to 1’ event.

---

Technical Breakdown

April 4, 2025

Don’t ask about moving averages. They are far above us. The 300d EMA for SPX is 5525.

Far below moving averages. 4875 and 4575 on SPX are next. 4825 on the 50% Fib retracement from the 2022 low.

SPY is at a confluence of the downtrend channel and a trendline from the 2022 low. Just below the trendline from the 2002 low touching the 2023 low.

The selloff provided confirmation of the spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle.

Free fall through the bottom of the downtrending channel on the daily chart. Thinking we may see a retracement to the downtrending channel in the coming week before earnings.

18.74 RSI on the 4-hour chart. 17.96 on the 1-hour chart. 23.24 on the daily chart for SPY. 27.17 on the weekly chart.

We closed below the bottom of the downtrending channel which started from the bottom in 2022.

April 3, 2025

Crashed through previous support in the overnight and on the open. Bounced off the September 2023 low. A retest of the upper band on the downtrending channel is possible.

Still appears to be a lot of hopium in the market.

We are sitting just below a trendline that started in 2020 and touched the 2022 low. Volume is already higher than last week on the weekly chart.

Every time frame is ugly for SPY. Crashed into the red on the daily MACD.

Nothing pretty about anything.

April 1, 2025

Bounced off and defended 554.5. Defended on multiple occasions the last few days.

Stronger volume which bodes well for continuation.

Tested the downtrend channel today after breaking through yesterday turning it into support.

Testing and bouncing off the 330d EMA.

March 31, 2025

The morning volume tapered off from the drop and rebound at open.

Around 12:30, volume picked up. Likely some funds window dressing at the end of quarter.

Very heavy volume with a spinning top red candle in the last 15 minutes.

Moved through a resistance level.

March 29, 2025

Monthly MACD is in the process of turning negative.

Spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart.

At the .236 retracement from the 2022 low. Levels below are 514, 483, and 452.

At the bottom of a channel extending back to the 2020 lows.

Everything previous is rendered moot.

March 27, 2025

Weekly MACD is still negative. This down week is not helping with respect to repairing damage.

Doji on the daily. Maybe an up day tomorrow since we are bouncing off support.

Still in the channel. More to the upside than downside. We are bouncing off the bottom of the channel.

Possibly we drift until the end of quarter with an April drop.

Gravestone doji to end the day on the 4-hour chart. Retesting the 23.6 retracement.

Almost a bearish engulfing on the 1-hour. Strong negative volume to close the day.

Lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour RSI.

March 25, 2025

The MACD on the weekly chart is negative. The 12 is starting to bend but needs time.

The MACD on the daily chart is positive pointing to higher prices. RSI is at 50 meaning uncertainty.

Price action on the daily chart shows a test of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement. We have moved above the 200d moving average. Right now, we sit at the top of a channel with resistance at 5800. Both the top of the channel and a resistance line going back to the post-election gap.

On the 1-hour chart, we are rolling over to the negative. Close to 0.

---

Key Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance Zones (Upside Targets)

Gap fill to 536 and 555.

Reclaim the upward trendline.

Support Levels (Downside Risks)

483 and 452 are Fibonacci at the 2022 lows.

380 is the support from the 2008 low touching the 2020 low.

---

Key Fundamental Data for the Week ending April 3, 2025

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q1 is now down -2.8%.

JOLTS came in weaker than expected.

ISM was weaker as well at 44.7 showing contraction for the manufacturing sector. New orders fell to the lowest level in 2 years. Inventories highest in 3 years.

Challenger Job Cuts up to 275k from 175k in February. Jobless Claims were slightly down. Continuing claims up.

Unemployment came in stronger than expected at 228,000 but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and last month’s figures were revised to the downside.

---

Volume & Momentum Considerations

Volume exploded on Thursday and Friday

Strong downside momentum

Oversold going into the weekend with prices at important support levels.

---

Trading Plan & Risk Management

Bullish Scenario

None

Bearish / Hedge Scenario

Shorted the VIX due to the oversold nature of the markets. Closed at 44 which is the same point as Covid 2020.

Moved stops up on shorts.

---

News and Random Thoughts:

Friday:

Some hard rumors last night. Microsoft might be preparing to cut CAPEX which has been holding up tech valuations this year. If true, look for tech to crater as AI implodes on itself.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing collars in the face of the selloff. One has to ask if the JP Morgan collar at 5300 for the 2nd quarter will be defended for the entire quarter.

TikTok sale is expected over the weekend. Put off now for 75 days.

Earnings are meaningless at this point. It is all about the guidance and second quarter. Still trading at 20x multiple for future earnings.

US hits the debt ceiling at the end of May.

Credit spreads are over 4 at 4.01.

We are in a mess technically but oversold everywhere meaning we should see a snapback next week.

The VIX closed at levels associated with the 2020 Covid selloff.

Thursday:

The tariff news has come in worse than expected for the markets, leading to an overnight correction.

The markets do appear to be too high based on incoming data. This week, ISM new orders crashed and prices paid rose. Atlanta Fed GDP is coming in at -3.8% for Q1. Challenger Job Cuts are rising but not filtering through to Jobless Claims yet.

Quarter 1 earnings are starting with JPM next Friday. Expect a mess because nobody cares about quarter one. All eyes will be tariff impacts and guidance for the year.

The JPM collar at 5300 seems strange to me with all of the bad news. I expect it to be a heavily defended spot unless rewritten lower. It is a possibility.

Bear market level on SPX is 4920. SPY is 490.58.

The problem with us being oversold is that there needs to be some catalyst. Earnings are coming but the quarter has been getting worse as it progressed. Guidance will be paramount. Who cares if you hit this quarter if you guide down for the next? Hoping on earnings alone is hopium. The market discounts out 3-6 months and this slowdown has yet to be fully priced in.

Bill Gross says not to catch a falling knife.

The effects will start to be felt soon.

Correlations are not 1. Yet.

Tuesday’s rise was a follow-through from Monday. Meme and recent IPO’s popped hard after Coreweave’s failed IPO last week sucked life out of the IPO market.

Monday’s drop on the open and subsequent rally was good from a few angles. We closed the gap and pushed through resistance. Volume was stronger than Friday.

The downside is that it feels like a trap with all the negative news flow behind the scenes. GDP and targets are being revised lower. End of quarter rebalancing. Top 10 stocks in QQQ were mixed with 4 up and 6 down. 5 of the 6 were down .90% or more.

The JP Morgan collar for the second quarter is 5,300.

A lot of technical damage was done in the sell off. You should not expect a V-shaped recovery. Especially with all the negative data coming out.

Everything below is moot based on Friday’s price action. A spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle is a red alert.

Nothing good on the charts. Hard to do a writeup when there is nothing positive to say. There needs to be a catalyst for a rebound after the previous rebound was wiped out on Friday.

If we did, it would be to all-time highs with valuations. To start the year, we were priced to perfection. Returning to that would mean another sell off.

----

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) –Chart Analysis 04/04/25

422.67

Important Notes

Into open air on the downside. Not good. Not a place to be long.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing their collars in the face of the selloff.

Holding steady into the last 3 hours near the lows of the day. We are through major support lines.

Testing and retesting the big support line on the channel. Crucial moments ahead.

Closer to an ‘all correlations go to 1’ event. VZ and MO are falling like rocks.

The play next week might be a volatility crush on the VIX. We made an intraday top at 44 touching a level going back to COVID.

Lots of IPO’s are now on pause.

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Technical Breakdown

April 4, 2025

Crashed through the channel on Nasdaq, retested, and tested the low for the day.

Below the channel on QQQ.

28.44 RSI on the weekly. 24.11 RSI on the daily. 20.90 on the 4-hour. 20.09 RSI on the 1-hour.

Crashed through the downtrending channel.

Followed through on the spinning top doji into an engulfing bearish channel.

April 3, 2025

The monthly is terrible. Rollover has happened. We are probably looking at a good 6 months until we cross back over to the positive.

The weekly chart is ugly. The daily chart has us below 452.46, a Fibonacci retracement from the 2020 low.

435 is the channel low.

If we clear the channel low. The next stop is 400, which is a line going back to 2008.

Heavy volume today.

March 31, 2025

Tapering volume to start with a pickup in the afternoon and a very strong close.

6 of the top 10 holdings were down for the day. 5 of the 6 down 0.90% or more.

Unlike the S&P, we are a good bit below resistance into open space. Hard to see what will hold this up.

We are in an area defining the mid-March low. The rest of the week will be important. Do we get a lower high and a lower low?

March 28, 2025

Everything below was invalidated on Friday.

The monthly MACD has rolled over. Last time this happened was January 2022. Overbought RSI has rolled over.

Weekly MACD and RSI are negative. We tested the 23.6% Fibonacci from the 2022 low, bounced back, and now retesting.

MACD turning negative on the 4-hour.

We are below the resistance line from the 2023 low. The next trendline is from the 2020 low at 340. Only Fibs now.

On the weekly, we have a spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle.

Previous

Negative on the weekly chart. Las week’s bullish candle was done on tepid volume. Weekly MACD is negative.

The daily chart is active in terms of levels. We tested the 38.2 fibonacci and pulled back over the past 2 trading days on tepid volume. The 38.2 level was also a resistance level going back to the post-election pregap close. Sitting now on a trend line. Shooting star candle on the 27th. Sitting just below the 23.6% Fibonacci. In a tight channel with ~496 as the top and 481 as the bottom.

The MACD on the 4-hour chart is in the process of rolling over. The 1-hour MACD is still moving lower.

Gap from March 21 is filled. Gap back to March 13th remains open.

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Fundamental Data for the week ending April 3, 2025

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for Q1 is now down -2.8%.

JOLTS came in weaker than expected.

ISM was weaker as well at 44.7 showing contraction for the manufacturing sector. New orders fell to the lowest level in 2 years. Inventories highest in 3 years.

Challenger Job Cuts up to 275k from 175k in February. Jobless Claims were slightly down. Continuing claims up.

Unemployment came in stronger than expected at 228,000 but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and last month’s figures were revised to the downside.

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Key Support & Resistance Levels

Resistance Zones (Upside Targets)

433.06 is the bottom of the channel. Retested during the day.

Gap fills to 450 and 473.

Support Levels (Downside Risks)

Combined Fibs from 2020 and 2022 lows. Not sure which one is more relevant.

2022 23.6 – 474 38.2 – 432.63 50 – 399 .618 – 317.54 100 – 256.58

2020 23.6 – 452.46 38.2 – 397.35 50 – 352.8 61.8 – 308.26 78.6 – 244.84 100 – 164.05

382 is a trendline from 2008 touching 2020 and 2022.

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Volume & Momentum Considerations

4/4/25

Not good. Lots of additional technical damage.

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Trading Plan & Risk Management

Bullish Scenario (Continuation Above 200EMA)

The bottom of the downtrending channel is 430.

Gap fills at 450 and 466.

Bearish / Hedge Scenario (Failed Follow-through)

Entry:

Target 1:

Target 2:

Target 3:

Stop-loss:

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News and Random Thoughts:

Friday:

Some hard rumors last night. Microsoft might be preparing to cut CAPEX which has been holding up tech valuations this year. If true, look for tech to crater as AI implodes on itself.

Volatility Control Funds are reassessing collars in the face of the selloff. One has to ask if the JP Morgan collar at 5300 for the 2nd quarter will be defended for the entire quarter.

TikTok sale deadline extended 75 days. Put off now for 75 days.

Earnings are meaningless at this point. It is all about the guidance and second quarter. Still trading at 20x multiple for future earnings.

US hits the debt ceiling at the end of May.

Credit spreads are over 4 at 4.01.

We are in a mess technically but oversold everywhere meaning we should see a snapback next week.

The VIX closed at levels associated with the 2020 Covid selloff.

Stagflation.

Thursday:

The tariff news has come in worse than expected for the markets, leading to an overnight correction.

The markets do appear to be too high based on incoming data. This week, ISM new orders crashed and prices paid rose. Atlanta Fed GDP is coming in at -3.8% for Q1. Challenger Job Cuts are rising but not filtering through Jobless Claims yet.

Quarter 1 earnings are starting with JPM next Friday. Expect a mess because nobody cares about quarter one. All eyes will be tariff impacts and guidance for the year.

The JPM collar at 5300 seems strange to me with all the bad news. I expect it to be a heavily defended spot unless it is rewritten lower. A possibility.

Bear market level on SPX is 4920. SPY is 490.58.

Stopped out of my short. Reentered EOD at smaller positions.

The problem with us being oversold is that there needs to be some catalyst. Earnings are coming but the quarter has been getting worse as it progressed. Guidance will be paramount. Who cares if you hit this quarter if you guide down for the next? Hoping on earnings alone is hopium. The market discounts out 3-6 months and this slowdown has yet to be fully priced in.

The effects will start to be felt soon.

Failed Coreweave IPO is not helping matters any.

Tuesday’s rise was a follow-through from Monday. Meme and recent IPO’s popped hard after Coreweave’s failed IPO last week sucked life out of the IPO market.

Correlations are not 1. Yet.

Friday was bad. Worse than anyone realizes. The technicals are flashing red lights everywhere. A rollover on the monthly. Spinning top doji into a bearish engulfing candle. If Monday is bad, this could get very ugly, very fast.

I have been thinking about where we are on an Elliott Wave diagram. People thought this was a wave 5 and they are wrong. Looks like a Wave 1 to me. If this is Wave 3, the longest, we see the 400 area as a bottom.

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Bitcoin/IBIT - 3/2/25 We hit resistance and sold off. Next few days will be important. Channel support is 91,200. Watch like a hawk for the next move.

3/3/25 - They took away the entire weekend move in one day placing Bitcoin back down to where it was EOD on Friday. What this weekend and Monday did was establish the channel with 95,300 as the resistance and 85,500 as support. Continue to watch like a hawk. It looks like we are going to get a small rally before another takedown. Watch for a break of support followed by a retest to enter into a new short position.

3/11/25 - V harmonic on the charts. Into an uptraend with resistance at 83,800, 85,200, and 86,900. Would place us back on the ledge from the 8th. Shorts stopped out. Looing for new entry points. Maybe a rally that pushes us up to the 86.9 line. Above that is 92k.

Lots of technical damage. Will take months to recover.

3/25/25 - Still in downtrend channel on the weekly. 2 green candles in a row but on very weak volume. Daily chart showing much of the same with a possible rollover. Bouncing off the 330D moving average on daily. Having issues with the 200 candle on the 4 hour chart. Weak volume on last 2 down days.

Bitcoin is quietly meandering in a small range with no push to move higher or lower.

5D - 0

1M - 0

3M - U

6M - D

1Y - U

5Y - D

SBIT - none

Put - 1/15/27 15P 10*

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Watch Cass Freight Index - Shipments

Market note - High option premiums

JPM collar on at 5565