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glitteratti · 7 months

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tell me abt the salton sea 👀 I've actually been there and it smells RANCID but idk much abt it

the thing about the salton sea is that it is just such an insane case study on climate change in so many different ways. it was created in 1905 by the flooding of an irrigation canal meant to bring water from the colorado river to the imperial valley in california for farming. it was a disaster, but it was still met with shrugs because they assumed it would evaporate because it flowed into such a hot and flat area. EXCEPT, the runoff of farm water fed it and refilled it as the water evaporated

there's a couple background factors here

it's located in the salton basin of the salton trough. this is one of the lowest points in the continent, and the salton sea is the lowest lake in the continent at a whopping elevation of -236ft or -71.9m. this shit is EXTREMELY below the sea level. if there's any excess water in the area, it just flows downhill to the salton basin

the colorado river used to run through this region. key word is used, because it would alternate where it flowed over the course of thousands of years. the course diverted around 1580, and the lake (lake cahuilla) dried up

because of this, the imperial valley had a lot of good farming soil but not enough water. this is why the canal was built

additionally, because this was the first half of the 20th century, water conservation wasn't really taken into concern. farmers used a lot of excess water, which continually fed the lake. this water carried fertilizer and pesticides, which leeched into the lake bed and pulled the ancient salt deposits up to the surface

but who cares about all of that! it's the 1950s, the war and great depression are over, and there's a bigass lake in the middle of an extremely dry area. fish had been introduced to the lake in the 1930s, so it's a great spot for inland saltwater fishing. the area gets developed and turned into a beach resort. there's yacht clubs and hotels, which the beach boys, frank sinatra, and bing crosby regularly stay at. there's even lots developed for people to purchase and build homes on, as well as schools built in the area. it's thriving and looking like it won't just be a tourist destination, but an area with robust communities that live there year round

this would be all good and fine, if it weren't an isolated lake fed by farm water runoff with no outlets for water to flow as it's being replenished. in the 70s, scientists start pointing out that this is a ticking time bomb as concerns over water conservation and climate change gain more attention. even in the 60s it was known that there were problems waiting to happen, but it was fixable! and very expensive, so of course nothing had been done

the late 70s is when things start to fall apart. as the lake becomes increasingly saline, it becomes less hospitable to the wildlife that once thrived there. fish begin dying en mass, which is part of why it smells so awful there. you've got nasty fertilizer and pesticide salt water, plus so many dead fish. on top of that, tropical storms raised the water level of the salton sea past it's banks and flooded the surrounding communities. and that was before hurricane kathleen put bombay beach, one of the communities, completely underwater

in the 90s, algal blooms that killed off the fish became regular occurrences. there was also a botulism outbreak, which meant migratory birds that passed over the lake would stop for water and food, and then contract botulism and die. so now you have not only so many dead fish, but a ridiculous amount of dead birds. incinerators had to be run 24/7 for WEEKS to burn all the birds

as time goes on, the salton sea is evaporating rapidly, becoming so saline that it's now saltier than ocean water. the evaporation also exposes the lake bed, which has absorbed the fertilizer and pesticide from the agricultural runoff and become toxic. since the area is so dry, winds often blow this toxic dust toward the coachella valley. the area has higher rates of asthma, most likely because of this

if you've been there, you've probably seen at least some of it, but local artists turned the area into a public art installation. the mix of these art installations and abandoned buildings makes the area look alien and surreal. bombay beach is definitely the most notorious of these, considering the salt encrusted abandoned buildings. there's also several other notable places nearby, like salvation mountain and slab city. salvation mountain is a bigass "mountain" that was originally built by one man, who felt called out by god to build it*. quite frankly, it is sick as FUCK. that said, there are concerns about the toxicity of the paints used :( slab city, on the other hand, is an off the grid squatter commune. the temperatures get so high in the summer, that most of the people who stay there just come for the winter months. there's a lot of unique art installations here, too

overall. the salton sea is an absolute ecological disaster of disregard for the environment, human greed, and negligence. but there's something so compelling about the communities nearby, their histories and the way that some people have managed to cling on. it's an older documentary, but plagues and pleasures on the salton sea is free on youtube and gives a really good look into what the communities were like at the time. miracle in the desert is also a really good one that covers the history of the salton sea and the modern community efforts to save the environment there. both are free on youtube and i highly recommend them!

tl;dr: salton sea crazy and so so fascinating and i feel so incomprehensibly insane about it. maybe because i got into all of that right after turning 23 and was like wow...just like mitski i guess i must retire there

#.txt #ask #I LOVE U SALTON SEA. U ARE SO WEIRD AND FUCKED UP AND ALIEN-LY BEAUTIFUL. AND AWFUL FOR EVERYBODY

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rjzimmerman · 17 days

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Excerpt from this story from the New York Times:

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has a line about the state of small-scale agriculture in America these days.

It’s drawn from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, which shows that as the average size of farms has risen, the nation had lost 544,000 of them since 1981.

“That’s every farm today that exists in North Dakota and South Dakota, added to those in Wisconsin and Minnesota, added to those in Nebraska and Colorado, added to those in Oklahoma and Missouri,” Mr. Vilsack told a conference in Washington this spring. “Are we as a country OK with it?”

Even though the United States continues to produce more food on fewer acres, Mr. Vilsack worries that the loss of small farmers has weakened rural economies, and he wants to stop the bleeding. Unlike his last turn in the same job, under former President Barack Obama, this time his department is able to spend billions of dollars in subsidies and incentives passed under three major laws since 2021 — including the biggest investment in conservation programs in U.S. history.

The plan in a nutshell: Multiply and improve revenue streams to bolster farm balance sheets. Rather than just selling crops and livestock, farms of the future could also sell carbon credits, waste products and renewable energy.

“Instead of the farm getting one check, they potentially could get four checks,” Mr. Vilsack said in an interview. He is also helping schools, hospitals and other institutions to buy food grown locally, and investors to build meatpacking plants and other processing facilities to free farmers from powerful middlemen.

But it’s far from clear whether new policies and a cash infusion will be enough to counteract the forces that have pushed farmers off the land for decades — especially since much of the money is aimed at reducing carbon emissions, and so will also go toward large farming operations because they are the biggest polluters.

The number of farms has been declining since the 1930s, in large part because of migration from rural areas to cities and greater mechanization of agriculture, which allowed operators to cultivate larger tracts with fewer people. Over time, the federal government abandoned a policy of managing production to support prices, prompting growers to become more export-oriented while local distribution networks atrophied.

The last half-decade has been more disruptive than most. First came a trade war against China under former President Donald J. Trump, which drew retaliatory tariffs that cut into U.S. exports of farm products like soybeans and pork. Then came the pandemic, which scrambled supply chains and sapped farm labor, leaving crops to rot in the fields.

After Congress cushioned the blow with relief for farmers hurt by pandemic disruptions, things started to turn around. Even as the cost of supplies like fertilizer and seed rose, so did food prices, and farm incomes increased. In 2023, default rates on farm loans neared record lows.

“Farm balance sheets are the healthiest they’ve ever been in the aggregate,” said Brad Nordholm, the chief executive of Farmer Mac, a large secondary market for agricultural credit. “The tools available to American farmers to have a more predictable return, even when commodity prices change and input prices change, is greater than it’s ever been before.”

But wholesale crop prices are expected to decline over the coming year. Rising interest rates have made it more difficult to finance planting and harvesting, borrow for an expansion or just get into agriculture — especially since land values jumped 29 percent from 2020 to 2023.

That’s especially true for the smallest farmers, who are far less likely to be tapped into Department of Agriculture assistance programs and are more vulnerable to adverse weather, labor shortages and consumer whims.

“I think in some ways they’re in a worse position than before the pandemic,” said Benneth Phelps, executive director of the nonprofit Carrot Project, which advises small farmers in New England. “We see a lot of farmers making hard decisions right now about whether to stay in or get out, because they’ve run out of steam.”

That’s where the American Rescue Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law come in.

The laws have collectively provided about $60 billion to the Agriculture Department, which has parceled it out across a variety of priorities, from relieving farmers’ debt to paying them to reduce their carbon emissions.

The biggest chunk — about $19.5 billion — has breathed new life into subsidies to encourage conservation practices that improve the land, like cutting back on plowing and planting cover crops to sequester carbon in the soil. Some of the programs had shrunk in successive Farm Bills, which are five-year legislative packages that covers most agricultural subsidies, and about two-thirds of farmers who applied each year got nothing.

The new funding has added 16,000 recipients over the past two years. Preliminary data shows the expansion is allowing smaller farms to take part.

#family farms #federal farming subsidies

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peakyballer654 · 2 months

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Unveiling the Finest Agricultural Steel Buildings in Colorado

When it comes to agricultural buildings Colorado, there's no compromise on quality and durability. Farmers and ranchers across the Centennial State understand the importance of sturdy structures to protect their valuable assets and livelihoods from the unpredictable weather conditions and other challenges of rural life. Among the myriad options available, agricultural steel buildings stand out as the epitome of strength, resilience, and longevity.

The Versatility of Agricultural Steel Buildings

Agricultural steel buildings in Colorado are not just structures; they are investments in the future of farming and ranching operations. These buildings offer unparalleled versatility, catering to a wide range of agricultural needs. Whether it's storing equipment, housing livestock, or providing workspace for various farm activities, steel buildings excel in meeting the demands of modern agriculture.

The Advantages of Steel Frame Agricultural Buildings

Durability:

The rugged terrain and harsh climate of Colorado demand structures that can withstand the test of time. Steel frame agricultural building Colorado rises to the occasion with their inherent strength and durability. Constructed from high-quality steel, these buildings offer superior resistance to rust, corrosion, and damage from pests or natural elements.

Customization:

No two farms are alike, and neither should be their buildings. Steel frame agricultural buildings offer unparalleled customization options to suit the unique needs and preferences of each farmer or rancher. From size and layout to features and accessories, every aspect of the building can be tailored to optimize functionality and efficiency.

Cost-Effectiveness:

While the upfront cost of agricultural steel building construction Colorado may seem daunting, it pales in comparison to the long-term savings they provide. With minimal maintenance requirements and exceptional durability, steel buildings offer an unmatched return on investment over their lifespan. Additionally, their energy-efficient design can lead to significant savings on heating, cooling, and lighting expenses.

Choosing the Right Agricultural Steel Building

Assessing Needs:

Before embarking on the journey of constructing an agricultural steel building, it's essential to assess your specific needs and requirements. Consider factors such as the intended use of the building, size constraints, budget considerations, and any future expansion plans. This initial evaluation will lay the foundation for a successful building project.

Selecting a Reputable Provider:

The success of your agricultural steel building in Colorado hinges on choosing the right provider. Look for a company with a proven track record of delivering high-quality steel buildings tailored to agricultural applications. Consider factors such as experience, expertise, customer testimonials, and industry certifications when making your decision.

Prioritizing Quality:

When it comes to agricultural steel buildings, quality should always take precedence over cost. Opting for cheap materials or cutting corners during construction may lead to costly repairs, compromised structural integrity, and safety hazards down the line. Invest in top-of-the-line materials and craftsmanship to ensure your building stands the test of time.

#agricultural buildings colorado #agricultural steel building colorado #steel frame agricultural building colorado #agricultural steel building construction colorado

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plethoraworldatlas · 8 months

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1. The ACC will train and employ 20,000 people in climate and clean energy jobs

The ACC will mobilize a new, diverse generation by training them in skills crucial to combating climate change—everything from installing solar panels to improving communities' natural disaster resilience to restoring critical ecosystems. And with a shortage of skilled clean energy workers, the ACC couldn’t come at a better time. We need more tradespeople, installing things like electric vehicle chargers and heat pumps, to decarbonize our economy.

There’s an emphasis on building career pathways, not just jobs. To achieve this, the White House will partner with unions and is committed to providing members with the hard skills and transferable credentials that will allow them to find good-paying jobs or seek further training through apprenticeships and trade schools after their service. This includes potentially expanding access to scholarships and awards that would support post-secondary education and training or reduce student debt and streamlined pathways into civil service. The best part? No prior experience is required for most positions, and very few will require college degrees.

2. The ACC prioritizes equity and environmental justice

While the ACC draws upon the ambition of The New Deal and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Civilian Conservation Corps, it also learns from its fundamental flaws.

FDR’s Corps lacked diversity, perpetuated white supremacy, and almost entirely excluded women, but Biden’s Corps puts equity and environmental justice at its core. It prioritizes communities traditionally left behind, including energy communities, whose lives have been dominated and shaped by the fossil fuel industry, and disadvantaged communities, who disproportionately suffer from a combination of environmental, economic, and health burdens.

The ACC follows the same targets of the administration’s Justice40 goal, where 40 percent of the benefits must be directed towards disadvantaged communities.

3. The ACC employs an all-of-government approach

The ACC is built on a hub-and-spoke model with AmeriCorps at the center. The White House is launching a dedicated ACC recruitment website, where participants can learn about and apply for opportunities in their communities, and across the country, that span all spheres of the clean energy economy.

The administration is partnering AmeriCorps with at least five other federal agencies (Department of Labor, Department of the Interior, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Department of Energy) to pool resources, coordinate recruitment, and fund corps members to work on specific projects that address the climate crisis.

Additionally, the administration will partner with at least 10 states. California, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, and Washington have already launched similar programs, while five more (Arizona, Maryland, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Utah) are creating their own Corps.

#enviromentalism #ecology #american climate corps #clean energy #green energy

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spacetimewithstuartgary · 2 months

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NASA Goddard to build quake detector for Artemis III moon landing

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, will build a moonquake detector for astronauts to deploy on the moon in 2026 during the Artemis III mission, which will return astronauts to the lunar surface for the first time in more than 50 years.

NASA selected the instrument, the Lunar Environment Monitoring Station (LEMS) as one of the first three potential payloads for Artemis III. LEMS is a compact, autonomous seismometer designed to carry out continuous, long-term monitoring of ground motion from moonquakes in the region around the lunar South Pole. The data LEMS gathers will help scientists study the moon's internal structure and could help refine our understanding of how the moon formed.

Planetary scientist Mehdi Benna, of the University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC) Center for Space Sciences Technology (CSST), leads the LEMS team at NASA Goddard.

"The LEMS project is the culmination of several years of collaboration between UMBC, University of Maryland, College Park, and NASA Goddard," Benna said.

Benna began conceptualizing the idea behind the LEMS instrument in 2018 after realizing the need for technology that could withstand the moon's harsh conditions to measure lunar geophysical activity for a long duration of time.

The team began developing his idea of a small, self-sustaining station that operates almost like a buoy in the ocean—what Benna calls a "lunar buoy"—that can survive on the surface through the lunar night and operate during the day. In 2018, Benna's team received funding from NASA's Development and Advancement of Lunar Instrumentation program to develop LEMS to flight readiness.

LEMS is intended to operate on the lunar surface from three months up to two years and could become a key station in a future global lunar geophysical network.

Moonquakes were first observed after Apollo astronauts placed seismometers on the lunar surface during their missions between 1969 and 1972. Moonquakes' sources include the same tug of gravity between Earth and the moon that cause ocean tides. In addition, the moon trembles as it expands and contracts due to temperature changes, like a house creaking when the weather heats up or cools down.

The Apollo seismic data was collected on the Earth-facing side of the moon near the lunar equator. "We don't have seismic data from the lunar South Pole that can inform us on the local and global lunar subsurface structure," said Naoma McCall, LEMS co-investigator and seismologist at NASA Goddard.

UMBC leads LEM's science investigation. NASA Goddard will build and operate LEMS. The University of Arizona will supply LEMS' two state-of-the-art seismometer sensors; Morehead State University in Kentucky will provide LEMS' telecommunication system and the homebase of the mission's operation center, and Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, will manage the instrument's data processing and dissemination to the larger scientific community.

The other candidate instruments selected alongside LEMS are the Lunar Effects on Agricultural Flora instrument, led by researchers at Space Lab Technologies in Boulder, Colorado, and the Lunar Dielectric Analyzer instrument, led by researchers at the University of Tokyo and supported by JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency).

Together these instruments could collect valuable scientific data about the lunar environment, the lunar interior and how to sustain a long-duration human presence on the moon, helping prepare NASA to send astronauts to Mars. Final manifesting decisions for Artemis III will be made at a later date.

IMAGE....Richard Mills (left) and Mitchell Hamann prepare to place the LEMS Engineering Unit into a thermal vacuum chamber. During the test, the LEMS prototype was subjected to the harsh temperature and vacuum conditions that mimic the surface of the moon to demonstrate the station can sustain itself and operate unassisted for long durations. Credit: NASA/Mehdi Benna

#science #space #astronomy #physics #news #nasa #astrophysics

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female-malice · 1 year

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In 2023, the relentless increase in global heating will continue, bringing ever more disruptive weather that is the signature calling card of accelerating climate breakdown.

According to NASA, 2022 was one of the hottest years ever recorded on Earth. This is extraordinary, because the recurrent climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)—was in its cool phase. During this phase, called La Niña, the waters of the equatorial Pacific are noticeably cooler than normal, which influences weather patterns around the world.

One consequence of La Niña is that it helps keep a lid on global temperatures. This means that—despite the recent widespread heat waves, wildfires and droughts—we have actually been spared the worst. The scary thing is that this La Niña will end and eventually transition into the better-known El Niño, which sees the waters of the equatorial Pacific becoming much warmer. When it does, the extreme weather that has rampaged across our planet in 2021 and 2022 will pale into insignificance.

Current forecasts suggest that La Niña will continue into early 2023, making it—fortuitously for us—one of the longest on record (it began in Spring 2020). Then, the equatorial Pacific will begin to warm again. Whether or not it becomes hot enough for a fully fledged El Niño to develop, 2023 has a very good chance—without the cooling influence of La Niña—of being the hottest year on record.

A global average temperature rise of 1.5°C is widely regarded as marking a guardrail beyond which climate breakdown becomes dangerous. Above this figure, our once-stable climate will begin to collapse in earnest, becoming all-pervasive, affecting everyone, and insinuating itself into every aspect of our lives. In 2021, the figure (compared to the 1850–1900 average) was 1.2°C, while in 2019—before the development of the latest La Niña—it was a worryingly high 1.36°C. As the heat builds again in 2023, it is perfectly possible that we will touch or even exceed 1.5°C for the first time.

But what will this mean exactly? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the record for the highest recorded temperature—currently 54.4°C (129.9°F) in California's Death Valley—shattered. This could well happen somewhere in the Middle East or South Asia, where temperatures could climb above 55°C. The heat could exceed the blistering 40°C mark again in the UK, and for the first time, top 50°C in parts of Europe.

Inevitably, higher temperatures will mean that severe drought will continue to be the order of the day, slashing crop yields in many parts of the world. In 2022, extreme weather resulted in reduced harvests in China, India, South America, and Europe, increasing food insecurity. Stocks are likely to be lower than normal going into 2023, so another round of poor harvests could be devastating. Resulting food shortages in most countries could drive civil unrest, while rising prices in developed countries will continue to stoke inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

One of the worst-affected regions will be the Southwest United States. Here, the longest drought in at least 1,200 years has persisted for 22 years so far, reducing the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River so much that power generation capacity at the Hoover Dam has fallen by almost half. Upstream, the Glen Canyon Dam, on the rapidly shrinking Lake Powell, is forecast to stop generating power in 2023 if the drought continues. The Hoover Dam could follow suit in 2024. Together, these lakes and dams provide water and power for millions of people in seven states, including California. The breakdown of this supply would be catastrophic for agriculture, industry, and populations right across the region.

La Niña tends to limit hurricane development in the Atlantic, so as it begins to fade, hurricane activity can be expected to pick up. The higher global temperatures expected in 2023 could see extreme heating of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico surface waters. This would favor the formation and persistence of super-hurricanes, powering winds and storm surges capable of wiping out a major US city, should they strike land. Direct hits, rather than a glancing blow, are rare—the closest in recent decades being Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which made landfall immediately south of Miami, obliterating more than 60,000 homes and damaging 125,000 more. Hurricanes today are both more powerful and wetter, so that the consequences of a city getting in the way of a superstorm in 2023 would likely be cataclysmic.

#we're going to hit 1.5C...#El Niño will probably take us a little above 1.5C...#I think the Southwest will need to be evacuated... the problem there is so much worse than the states are letting on #they've been lying to their citizens... not informing them of the full danger #cc

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katnissdoesnotfollowback · 1 year

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"He tells of the history of Panem, the country that rose up out of the ashes of a place that was once called North America."

(THG chapter 1)

"In school, they tell us the Capitol was built in a place once called the Rockies. District 12 was in a region known as Appalachia."

(THG chapter 3)

Where do you think location of Capitol and Panem's districts exactly?

The Appalachian’s span multiple states. Where do you picture District 12?

How long between this time and Panem rise? 200 hundred years? More?

Thank you so much

@curiousnonny

Dear @curiousnonny,

I have about six months of asks from you backed up in my inbox. Thank you so much for including me! Gonna try and work through these asks over the next week. :)

For this one, man. I would hope it'd take at least 200 years for the kind of falling apart that happens in order to create Panem. There's so much that has to happen to create that world. Katniss talks about wars and climate change leading to famine, scarce resources that tears apart what is now North America, plus she seems to have no knowledge of the world beyond Panem. Enough time has to pass for the rest of the world to be erased from Panem's history books and the general population's knowledge base. That knowledge, in Katniss's time seems reserved for a few highly educated, powerful people, like Plutarch who knows about ancient Rome. Then there has to be enough time to reestablish a form of government after everything falls apart. Enough time for THAT government to fail and cause the Dark Days war, when the Districts rebel, and then fail, resulting in 13's deal to play dead in exchange for being left alone. Snow is only a young boy when that happens, and even as a teenager in Ballads, he talks very little, if at all about the world outside of Panem. The rest of the world has already fallen out of the common memory when he's a boy. So I would actually estimate it at closer to 500 years from now.

As for geography, I've always pictured the Capitol being built in a place that's not an existing city right now. Mainly because of the infrastructure. In Mockingjay, Katniss describes the underground network of tunnels:

"There is a simple network of wide tunnels that directly corresponds to the major avenues and cross streets. It's called the Transfer, since small trucks use it to deliver goods around the city. During the day, its many pods are deactivated, but at night, it's a minefield. However, hundreds of additional passages, utility shafts, train tracks, and drainage tubes form a multilevel maze." (Chapter 21)

That sort of infrastructure is not easy to build beneath an already existing city, and I can't think of a single US city in the Rockies that has that kind of underground tunnel system, especially not one that's multilayered, holy cow is that hard to pull off. in such a large sprawl. Otherwise, Denver, Colorado would be an easy first guess for the Capitol, but I don't think that's where it is. My best guess is that the Capitol is a city that's barely developed right now and would have a chance at building something underground like the Transfer and the complicated tunnels Katniss describes. It's possible that the Capitol is actually in present day Canada, as well.

As for each of the districts, I know there's all kinds of maps out there but the ones that I have pretty set ideas on are District 13 is somewhere in Pennsylvania, 12 is in West Virginia.

11 fits way too many stereotypes of the agricultural Southeast, so it's hard to imagine it's anywhere else. Not to mention it's treated as the closest district to 12.

In the books, 10's industry is cattle farming. Hello Texas, how ya doing? 9 I picture as somewhere in the current Midwest -- Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, that kind of area.

8 I always thought of as being northern Illinois, Minnesota or Michigan area. Textile industries have traditionally been in the Northeast of the US, not the northern Midwest, but there's also the mention of rising oceans making land scarce, so I wonder how much of the current Northeast would be underwater in Panem.

I picture 7 as being central Canada kind of area. I actually have no real set idea on 5 or 6.

In my head, 4 stretches along the Gulf of Mexico and possibly up the east coast a little bit, I pick this mainly because in Catching Fire, there's a scene when Katniss's prep team is getting her ready to have pictures taken in the wedding dresses Cinna has made for her and the Capitol is supposed to vote on which one she wears. Her prep team talks about how they couldn't get shrimp for a party "because the weather's been so bad in District Four." (Chapter 12) It's the shrimp that makes me think Gulf fishing, but Finnick's familiarity with a trident and spear fishing suggests a more old school east coast style of fishing as well. So I think Four is actually long and skinny, stretching along a large portion of coastline. Unfortunately, this makes the idea of a simple route counting down from 12 to 1 and ending in the Capitol for the Victory Tour nonsensical unless 4 stretches all the way over towards Mexico itself... OR the geography of Panem is not as simple as Katniss thinks it is. Also a possibility. After all, when she's getting to know Rue in the first book, Katniss wonders how much of their conversation will actually be aired since the Capitol has deliberately kept the Districts in the dark about each other, and Katniss knows they've done that.

I know a lot of people usually peg Silicon Valley in California for District 3, and I just kind of accept that I guess? I have no strong feelings on the matter lol.

2... Wyoming. In the Rockies with NORAD as either a part of their system or an inspiration for The Nut, close enough to the Capitol to be their lapdogs, a good place to draw Peacekeepers from but also to send errant Capitol citizens to train as Peacekeepers *cough cough Coryo cough cough* and Country enough to fit the characterization of Sejanus and his Ma. Although, Alaska is a close second for me on this one. It puts Two into the way far North though, and I'd think Katniss would comment more on the COLD when she visits 2 if it were that far North.

Aaaand finally... I waffle between Eastern California, Las Vegas area, up into the Pacific Northwest for District 1.

#curiousnonny #thg thoughts #anonymous #look at that ask

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moderncalculators · 9 months

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Empowering Financial Decisions with Modern Calculators: Your Key to Financial Success

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annaphoenix1994 · 9 months

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Ch.128 - Dipshits.

Previous Chapter - Masterlist 1; Masterlist 2 - Next Chapter

Kiera discusses her next strategy with Rob; Simon catches Baler falling in with the wrong crowd by playing Cowboy Poker.

“It’s about time you showed up for lunch!” Robert chuckled while he joined her in her office, sitting down at the small table that was close to the window, looking out towards the vague frame of the Tetons in the far distance, only knowing the mountain range due to its shape alone. “I got you a chicken wrap from the café. Hope you weren’t craving anything else.”

“That’s fine, Rob. Thank you.” Kiera shook her head, kindly accepting the fresh chicken Caesar wrap he had brought her as a kind gesture.

As well as a reward for helping him make a fuck ton of money within the last few months.

“So, are you excited to finally be taking full control of this office?”

“Terrified, but it’s how I learn.” She shrugged.

“Well, what’s your first move?”

“For one, I’m going to take down Jenkins. Any fucking way I can,” She scoffed, eagerly curling her index finger under the tab of her can of Dr. Pepper. “You get these land developers like him who find pristine recreational property, build whatever they desire and sell the dream – no major problems arise unless you have cocksuckers like Jenkins who desire to take it further: building hotels and casinos. They all end up leaving because they can’t generate enough cash flow after trying to turn it into New York City.”

“That’s right. You can’t make a big business out of raw land with real estate.” Rob nodded.

“Exactly.”

“What’re you going to do?”

“We set up a fund – a fund that buys land and puts it into a conservation easement which cuts the property tax by 2/3’s by the end of the year. Then we go to the Department of Agriculture and enroll the land in a CRP.”

“What’s a CRP?”

“It’s the federal government paying us not to farm it.”

Rob scoffed, “Now why would the federal government willingly pay its citizens not to do something that brings in revenue? That just doesn’t make sense to me.”

“To control the supply. They won’t have to worry about local farmers – or people like Jenkins – diluting the market. It’s shit, but it’s a benefit for us.”

“What’s the turnaround look like?”

Kiera shrugged, “A government pay per acre, per year depending on land. The last I checked in Wyoming, it’s between $200-$300 an acre. That also goes for Montana, Utah, and Colorado – except Colorado is more stingy with where its money goes.”

“So the government will pay the land off for us in seven years?”

“We’ll pretty much become landlords who are paid not to rent.”

“Hm. Sounds like a pyramid scheme.”

“With the government at the bottom for once, then yeah. Let’s start with a $100,000,000 investment in land, then we funnel the CRP funds into more land purchases and buy probably up to 30,000 acres per year without spending a dime. We make a profit by year two with a net revenue of $45,000,000 per year.”

“The more we buy, the more the number increases?”

“Sound like a good retirement plan for you?”

“Of course it does, but why hasn’t anyone does this before?”

“They can’t afford it, but we can.”

“What’s in it for you, Kiera?”

“What makes you say that?”

“Something is buried within you.”

“I’m just doing my job,” She assured him. “And I’m doing the best I can to protect my father’s ranch and legacy for as long as I can.”

“I understand,” Rob nodded. “We’ll put the land into the hedge fund and use the brokers to buy up the land. Don’t haggle on price, Kiera. You know what to do.”

“Otherwise, you wouldn’t have given me the reins.”

Kiera’s fingers ached with as much as she had been typing on her computer, silently thankful that she had forced herself to upgrade from the slow HP desktop to an iMac, which hit the spot on her aesthetic, finding herself to be slightly more organized than she thought. Impressive, she mused.

Breaking her gaze from her computer, her head throbbed once she broke her focus to look for the source of the vibrations from her phone. Shit, already 5:00? “Hey.”

“What’re you up to, love?” Simon asked softly on the other end of the phone.

“Getting ready to have a meeting with a realtor who’s selling land around the ranch. Going to make an offer on it.”

“Rolling in the bread, yeah?”

She scoffed, “If only it was our money…”

“I’m sure I’d see signs,” He chuckled. “Coming home after?”

“Most definitely. My eyes have been so strained and my head has been hurting since I came in this morning. I ran into our buddy this morning.”

“Who?”

“Jenkins. I stopped at the diner for breakfast because I was craving strawberry banana pancakes and knew Ruby was there. That fucker was there, too. Me and him had a little word.”

“I bet that went well.”

“About like you could imagine. Couldn’t keep my big mouth shut.”

“That doesn’t surprise me,” He poked. “So… Cravings, huh?”

She swore she had heard him smile at the thought.

“It’s been a few weeks now… I need to check and see if we have another one on the way,” She giggled. “Guess I have a stop to make on my way home, huh?”

“I’d love to see that. Your daughter has been babbling dada all day and I’ve been on a Cloud 9. If only I can get Jacob to finally talk without saying gibberish.”

“That’s because they’re babies, Simon,” She scoffed playfully. “The realtor’s coming in. This shouldn’t take long. Want me to call you back?”

“You can call me back or I can mute myself, love. I’m just sitting on the couch watching Evie and Jacob sleep.”

“Where’s Baler?”

“Bunkhouse. He and Johnny have been bullying each other about playing poker and Teeter kept instigating it, so that’s what he’s been doing since he’s been home from school.”

“Christ, that boy,” Kiera shook her head, glancing up at the realtor who had walked in, setting his briefcase down next to him in the chair while he sat in front of Kiera’s desk.

“Did I come in at a wrong time?” He asked, his tone nearly irritated at not only the fact that he had to deal with a woman, but being a man of strict order when it came to appointments. When you say to be here at 5:00, I expect you to be ready, not talking on the phone. Fucking women.

Oh, but he had no idea what he was up against…

And she noticed this, making it a point to piss him off even more for her own benefit. “Just mute yourself, Simon.” She advised, also sending him a quick text to inform him that he wanted to hear the rest of the conversation.

“What’ve you got for me, David?” She asked, watching him huff before stacking a file on her desk with the plot of land that he was able to provide for her that was for sale.

“Hope this best suits your needs.” He commented.

She arched her brow as she looked over the file as well as the photos that he had taken for the marketing on his iPad. “How many acres?”

“418. Asking price is $6,000.000. Has a water source, two houses, a separate garage, horse barn, indoor arena that’s air-conditioned and heated. The whole nine yards.”

“How motivated are the sellers?”

David scoffed, “Well, they thought spending the winter here was better than being in South Carolina. You tell me.”

You cocky motherfucker, she scoffed to herself. I’m going to ruin your ego in a few minutes. “Offer $4,000,000. No escrow – cash. One week close.”

“Wouldn’t you want to see it first?”

“Seeing it now.”

“Okay… You didn’t strike me as the type that would just buy something without seeing it.”

“You’d be surprised, buddy,” She retorted. “No negotiations. Offer the four and a week close. Surely they’d be eager to move back east for a mild winter.”

“Care to see one more that might better suit your interest?”

“Why not.”

David nodded, removing another file from his briefcase before setting it on her desk, taking the iPad and opening the other folder for his next proposal. “800 acres that ties into the national forest on the west, view of the Grand Tetons from the back patio, nothing but hunting land. It’s not available, but I know the people—”

“Then why are you showing it to me?”

“You… Wanted to see every large plot in the northwest part of Wyoming?”

“For sale.”

A brief moment of silence fell between the two, making dominant eye contact as if they were challenging each other. “It’s called Wren Acres.”

“Why’s it named after a wren?” She questioned curiously, truly wondering why a plot of land would be called something opposite to what species resided there.

“Who the fuck knows,” David scoffed. “Maybe it’s because they’re from South Carolina?”

“What’s with the wit, David?” Kiera asked softly, her adrenaline pumping as she was eager to make another man mad that she would be questioning his dominance. “Quick math for your commission making you feel eager? Damn, you’re showing us properties that aren’t even for sale. Man, you’re on a roll. Might go home and lay some pipe to the ole’ lady.”

He scoffed in astonishment as well as surprise. It’s kinda hot when a woman thinks she can be more assertive than me… “Wha-?”

“Get out of my office.”

“Kiera, I don’t—”

“Get the fuck out of my office. When you make a proposal, fax it to me so I don’t have to look at you again.”

“Maybe I won’t.”

“You won’t or I will,” She shrugged. “You can lose your commission and I’ll go and lay pipe to your ole lady. Your choice.”

He scoffed, gathering his files and iPad before stuffing them back into his briefcase. “I’d like to see that.”

“I bet you would. Go write up the offer so I don’t have to. When you get your commission I want you to shove it so far up your waxed ass,” She scoffed, glaring at him while she watched him storm out of her office before mumbling, “Fuck, I hate real estate agents.” To Simon once she directed her conversation back at him, hearing him chuckling at her conversation while patiently waiting for it to end, although a part of him hoped it wouldn’t end, he quite thoroughly enjoyed watching Kiera be assertive to people, including him. It’s so bloody sexy when she tells me like it is, he mused to himself. “You remind me every day why I’m glad to be on your good side, love.”

“Did I forget to mute you?”

“Sure did, but I don’t mind. At least I was assured that you didn’t have another man in your office for another type of meeting…” He poked.

“That’s tomorrow,” She scoffed back, her tone nearly assertive, even though sarcasm was a thick underlier. “I’m finishing up and heading home. What do you want for dinner?”

“Remember, it’s Friday. Your mum was going to cook dinner and we go over there.”

“That’s right. I forgot to call her earlier—”

“Don’t stress about it. She called me and I took the kids over there around noon. She asked me to help her hang a few frames around the house that the poor lass couldn’t reach.”

“Awe, look at you being a house-husband.”

“Gotta do something while I’m on time off from work. Feels nice to do nothing with something on occasion.”

“I’m sure, babe. I’m heading to the truck now. I’ll see you in a bit.”

“Be safe. I love you.”

“I love you too.”

“Got a whole hand of ‘em, boys!” Frankie taunted the others, his free hand full of cards while the other clutched a bottle of beer.

“Easy to say when you’re not in it.” Dirk teased from across the table.

“What’s eatin’ you, Baler? I know that’s not your poker face!” Lawson snickered, nudging the teen with his elbow.

“Yeah, you look like you’re about to take a shite!” Johnny laughed, tossing into the blind that sat piled in the middle of the table.

“Maybe I am…” Baler sighed, the corner of his mouth raising into a smirk before tossing the winning draw onto the table, watching the rest of the playing wranglers sigh in defeat.

“You son of a bitch!” Frankie sighed, folding his hand before twining his fingers behind his head while Lawson tossed his ballcap to the floor.

“Is this all we’re gonna do?” Teeter groaned impatiently.

“It’s what we always do?...” Frankie answered, his brows furrowed.

“Is it just one set of nuts y’all share?” She taunted, making Dirk laugh.

“Aside from the ones I’m wearing, I think your lady has the only ones in this room.”

“You’re probably right, mate.” Johnny huffed, his face flushed.

“When I was your age, we were out in the arena playing real poker… Cowboy Poker.”

“Now that sounds fun!” Teeter chimed.

“Wh-What is that?” Johnny asked.

“Oh, it’s real fun, baby. Involves a lot of whiskey and gettin’ a lil dirty!” She mused, leaning down from behind him to kiss his cheek.

“What exactly is it?” Baler asked, his expression just as confused as Johnny’s.

“We’re not playing it, so it doesn’t matter.” Frankie answered abruptly, shaking his head and beginning to shuffle a deck of cards.

“Bock… Bock, bock…” Dirk trailed off, chewing on the end of his cigar.

“That old fart is taunting me!” Baler scoffed. “Let’s do it.”

“Boy, your balls haven’t even dropped yet and you’re wanting to risk not ever growing them!” Lawson sighed.

“And your dad will kill us.” Johnny reminded, arching his brow. “Especially me for letting you do it.”

“Afraid you all will lose? It’s a damn shame mine haven’t even dropped and I have more balls than all of you combined.” Baler shrugged.

“Goddammit,” Frankie sighed. “Let’s go.”

All members of the table stood to their feet, anxious and ready for whatever this so-called game was. Knowing that it was taking place in an arena, it was about to get messier than what Teeter had explained.

“Don’t worry, baby! Ye be alright! I’m gonna stay behind the fence here!” Teeter snickered, clasping her hands over Johnny’s shoulders as she stood behind him once he sat down in the plastic chair, setting an open bottle of whiskey in his lap before her lips rested on his temple. “Drink up. Ye gonna need some liquid courage!”

Johnny nodded, never hesitating before taking a large sip of the liquor before passing it to Frankie, watching him repeat the motion before he passed it to Lawson, watching him take a small swig before passing it to Baler, shocked to see him take a drink just like Simon would as well as never making a sour face after he swallowed.

“Goddamn, kid, you stealin’ whiskey when your dad ain’t home?” Dirk commented, surprised.

“Nah, I just had a rough life before this place, old man,” He retorted. “More liquid courage, Frankie? You look like a puss right now.”

“Fuck you. You sound just like my sister.” He retorted, referring to Kiera as she was his sibling.

“Taught me well, didn’t she?”

“Now, what’s the rules?”

“Last one at the table keeps the pot,” Lawson answered, his form visibly trembling from adrenaline and fear. “Pass me some more of that.”

“Drink up, dipshits,” Dirk laughed. “You’re going to need it.”

“You two are getting horse traded by this old bastard and he isn’t even drinking anything.” Baler taunted.

“This is fucking nuts!” Lawson shouted, desperate to pump himself up to hide his fear.

“Quit crying!” Baler scoffed. “We’re ready!”

“Yeah, there’s not a lot smart about this…” Frankie sighed.

“Here we go, ladies,” Baler continued, taking a final long swig of the burning whiskey before shouting, “Ready!”

Johnny took a deep breath when he heard the gate open, a set of thunderous hooves colliding with the sand while Teeter shouted at the bovine, the radio that was perched on the ground to provide as background music blared Mud by Whiskey Myers as the bull charged into the arena, looking around frantically before setting its sights on the table in the middle of the arena, each player sitting as still as they possibly could as the bull charged closer, bowing its head for its desired impact, Baler sitting on the other end of the table and physically watched the bull charge as if it were charging at just him.

With a sharp thud and the air kicked from his lungs, Baler steadily stood on his feet to flee to the nearest fence, watching as he was the last one in the arena, unaware that the other players had fled with adrenaline after being rammed by the bull, Johnny and Teeter both encouraging Baler to run with adrenaline still coursing through their veins, Dirk’s aching limbs helping the teenager over the top of the fence rail with a laugh while he did his best to dust him off. “That’s some cowboy shit, boy!” He shouted with excitement.

“That’s… That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever done!” He laughed. “But that was fucking awesome!”

“Ye okay baby, no missin’ teeth?! Your pecker still on right? I ain’t need no limp’n!” Teeter questioned Johnny, looking him over while he gasped for air and clutched his ribs.

“I’m fine, bonnie. Bastard hit me right in the ribs.” He groaned.

“Balls of steel!” Frankie laughed, patting Baler on the shoulder as he limped towards the barn, regrouping with the rest of the wranglers as they all gasped for air.

“Are you alright?”

“Fuckin’ peachy.” Baler groaned, wiping the blood from his nose.

“You might need this.” Lawson said, reaching the bottle of leftover whiskey to the teen as he took it eagerly, finishing it off without a second thought, even if Simon had just walked towards the arena to investigate the commotion, the wranglers unaware that the blaring music had caught his attention as it was very rare of the wranglers to throw a “party.”

“He lost his hat, so he owes us a six pack and a new radio.” Frankie teased, the players still unaware of Simon’s deathly gaze as he was storming towards them.

“The fuck I do!” Baler scoffed. “Give me my money!”

“Fine!” He scoffed, slapping the fifty-dollar bill into the teen’s palm, watching with a scowl as he had eagerly fisted it into his back pocket.

“What the fuck are you bastards doing?” Simon shouted.

The wranglers were wide-eyed, looking like a bunch of deer in oncoming headlights, nearly scared out of their wits and suddenly wishing they were caught slacking on the job instead of what they had just done, the worst of it willingly letting a teenager drink whiskey like an old man.

“Uhm… It’s Friday.” Baler answered for them, hoping that the day of the week would at least help him and the wranglers out of this situation.

“I know what bloody day it is, lad!” He shouted. “Why were you in the arena with that bull and why are you bloody?!”

“We were tryin’ to milk him!” Teeter snickered, knowing that Simon wouldn’t be as inclined to scold her in front of Johnny.

Boy, what she wrong.

“Not the fucking time,” He glared, more irritated that his son was battered and bloody – something that always drove under his skin as he always felt he needed to be the one to protect him, even in his wrong decisions. But Simon wouldn’t admit that he was impressed with the kid. You just took a beating by a two-thousand pound bull and still got up. You have some serious guts, kid. “Lad, go to the house and tell your mum what you just did.”

“N-No, I—”

“I’m not going to tell you again.”

Then, the teen did something that truly caught Simon off guard. He scoffed at him.

Simon arched his brow – a warning. “Get the furball out, then go to the house and tell your mum what you just did.”

Baler scoffed again.

“If you *scoffing sound* one more time, I’ll choke you for real.”

The rest of the wranglers laughed as Baler limped away in defeat.

“Balls of steel when it comes to a bull, but going home like a kitten when he’s in trouble.” Lawson teased.

“I’d be more afraid of going home if I were him,” Dirk shrugged. “That bull is the least of my worries if it comes down to dealing with Kiera as mad as a wet hen.”

“Yeah, you’re right. I forgot she beat the shit out of Frankie a couple of years ago.” Lawson snickered, nudging Frankie with his elbow before Simon quickly took control of the situation and grasped their coats, knocking them off balance before shoving them back towards the bunkhouse.

“You all get out of here and get yourselves cleaned up. Four a.m. comes early!”

“We never get up at four on Saturday—” Dirk pleaded.

“You all will tomorrow,” He glared. “Maybe you all will learn once you decide to not mess with a bloody rabid bull.”

“Yes, sir.” Dirk nodded, respecting Simon’s leadership as well as understanding his reason for being upset, joining the rest of the wranglers to the bunkhouse, Teeter helping the old man walk as Johnny stayed behind in an attempt to stay on Simon’s good side.

Like a dog who had just been punished.

“You, especially.” He scoffed, arching his brow at Johnny.

“I’m sorry, Simon. It was all just fun—”

“Yeah? How’d that work out for you?”

“Pretty fuckin’ rough,” He breathed a laugh, stuffing his freezing hands into his jacket pockets. “What’re you wanting us to do in the morning?”

“In case you forgot, you said you were coming hunting with me and the boy tomorrow.”

“I’d rather work,” Johnny sighed. “Hunting with you is like a recon mission. After being with Teeter for so long, I don’t know how to keep my mouth shut for longer than an hour.”

“You’ve never been able to keep your mouth shut,” Simon retorted. “Who won?”

“Your kid. Little bastard never moved.” Johnny huffed, relieved once he saw a prideful smile spread across Simon’s face at his answer.

“Is that right?”

“The kid is a walking stick of dynamite. He’s a perfect mix of you and Kiera and he isn’t even blood-related to you. Makes me wonder how your actual kids will turn out.” He poked.

“I can assure you, if my daughter grows up with Kiera’s attitude and my stubbornness and I catch her out here playing this stupid game like you all were playing tonight, every one of you would be dead and she’d be locked up in the house until she was an adult.”

“Don’t lie, you wouldn’t even let her out of the house when she was an adult!”

“You’re probably right.”

#simonghostriley #simonriley #simon riley #simon ghost riley #call of duty #callofduty #simon riley x oc #call of duty modern warfare 2 #ghost riley #simon riley x og female

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mariacallous · 1 year

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This week, Argentina and Uruguay declared national health emergencies following outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1, the fast-moving virus that destroys poultry flocks and wild birds, and for decades has been feared as a possible spark for a pandemic among people. That makes 10 South American countries that have recently marked their first-ever encounter with the virus, including Peru—where more than 50,000 wild birds died last fall, and more than 600 sea lions in January. Combine the sea lion infections with the revelation that H5N1 flu invaded a mink farm in Spain in October, and health authorities must now confront the possibility that the unpredictable virus may have adapted to threaten other species. To be clear, this does not yet include people. Although past decades have witnessed bird flu outbreaks that spread to humans, only two cases have been identified in the past 12 months: a Colorado adult last May, and a 9-year-old girl in Ecuador in January. (Neither died.) And there’s no evidence yet that the virus has been able to jump from newly infected mammals to people. But the fact that it was transmitted from bird to mammals, and then spread among them, indicates a disquieting trend.

According to the World Organization for Animal Health, at least 60 countries have recently experienced outbreaks of H5N1, which is named for two proteins found on the virus’s surface. That includes the US, where 43 million laying hens were either killed by avian flu last year or slaughtered to prevent the disease from spreading. Those losses took out almost a third of the national flock of laying hens; according to the US Department of Agriculture, they cut into egg supplies so much that prices at the end of the year were 210 percent higher than at the end of 2021. Overall, the USDA estimates just under 58 million birds—mostly layers, turkeys, and backyard poultry—died or were killed in 2022, and another half-million so far this year.

The poultry industry is enormous. Just the US portion comprises more than 9 billion meat chickens and 216 million turkeys grown each year, plus 325 million laying hens; chicken is the most-consumed meat worldwide. That scale makes it difficult to put the losses from bird flu into context. But the ongoing epidemic has become the worst animal-disease outbreak in US history, as well as the largest poultry outbreak ever recorded in the UK, Europe, and Japan. And though surveillance is difficult, wildlife biologists say the damage to wild birds has been disastrous.

There may be little that can be done to protect wild birds; avian flu is spread by seasonally migrating waterfowl, which carry the virus without being harmed by it. But the poultry industry relies on a complex set of behaviors and building features, broadly called biosecurity, that it developed or reinforced after a catastrophic outbreak killed more than 50 million birds in 2015. Given the virus’s relentless advance, people who study the industry are beginning to ask whether biosecurity can ever be hardened enough to exclude avian flu—and if not, what has to change to keep birds and humans safe.

“We know that biosecurity can work and does work, but it’s a heroic effort, and it may not be sustainable given current building styles and current workforce,” says Carol Cardona, a veterinarian and professor of avian health at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine. “The reason I say it can work is that companies that had [highly pathogenic avian flu] in 2015 had fewer cases in 2022. So they learned some lessons and changed some things—but very few of them kept it out completely.”

The relentless attack of H5N1 is important not just for its impact on poultry or wildlife, but for what it portends for people. Avian flu was long considered the animal disease most likely to break out into a global human pandemic, and even after the onslaught of SARS-CoV-2, many scientists still feel that way.

The H5N1 subtype first spilled from birds to humans in 1997 in Hong Kong. It sickened 18 people and killed six of them—small numbers, but a disturbing 33 percent mortality rate. Since then, variants of H5N1 have periodically infected people, causing 868 human cases through 2022 according to the World Health Organization, and 457 deaths. Those numbers represent a 52 percent mortality rate—but at the same time, an indication that the virus had not adapted enough to spread easily from person to person and ignite large outbreaks.

Still, scientists are always watching for the virus to find situations that would encourage those adaptations. For instance: Spanish and Italian scientists disclosed last month that in October 2022, an H5N1 variant infected minks on a fur farm in northwest Spain. The virus might have been passed to a single mink by a wild bird, or via chicken carcasses used for feed. But once on the farm, it made minute adaptations that allowed it to spread from one mink to another. To stop the outbreak, all the farm’s minks—almost 52,000—were killed.

That outbreak was unnerving, twice over. Not only had the virus begun adapting to mammals, but to a particular mammal that might have direct relevance for people. Minks belong to the same family as ferrets, which are already used by scientists for flu research because they develop symptoms in the same progression that humans do.

But there’s a third reason why the mink outbreak was notable, something that is so normal in animal agriculture that it mostly goes unnoticed. The Spanish farm was not a property where minks gamboled freely while they grew their fur. Instead, it was an intensive farm where the animals were confined in cages. Most of the poultry farms affected in the US have been intensive confinement farms also, though what that means differs by bird species: large metal barns for broilers, barns and sometimes interior cages for layers, and mesh-curtained sheds for turkeys.

Operating in confinement doesn’t necessarily make a farm more vulnerable to infection, but once a virus penetrates the premises, confinement ensures that very many animals are exposed at once. That puts a lot of animals at risk—some of the egg farms wiped out by flu last year lost more than 5 million birds—and it also gives the virus a plethora of hosts to mutate in. This drives people outside the poultry industry to suggest that if very large farms pose a risk of amplifying a virus, maybe making them smaller should be part of viral defense.

“When there’s public discussion of addressing zoonotic disease, it almost immediately turns to vaccination, preparedness, biosecurity—but no one discusses addressing the root cause,” says Jan Dutkiewicz, a political economist and visiting fellow at Harvard Law School’s Brooks McCormick Jr. Animal Law and Policy Clinic. “We would never have a debate about preventing cancer from tobacco products without talking about stopping smoking. Yet when it comes to zoonotic disease risk, there is a huge reticence to discuss curbing animal production.”

That might be an unthinkable proposal, given that Americans ate an estimated 1.45 billion wings during the Superbowl last Sunday—and that as a culture, we’re not inclined to ask many questions about how our food arrives at our plates. “Industrial animal production operates and maybe even depends on a distance between the consumer and the realities and violence of industrial animal production,” says Adam Sheingate, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University who studies food and agriculture policy. “Most people really prefer not to know how their food is produced.” Still, he points out, when disease risks from food become clear, other nations respond rapidly—such as when the UK changed cattle-farming practices after Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, the human variant of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or “mad cow disease,” killed 178 people in the mid-1990s.

“This is not to say we get rid of poultry,” says Andrew deCoriolis, executive director of Farm Forward, a nonprofit that works to improve farm animal welfare. “It's to say: We have to understand what are the factors that are the biggest risk drivers, and perhaps legislate changes to them. That could be moving farms out of flyways, it could be reducing the number of barns on a particular location, it could be reducing animal density within the barns.”

Dreadful though it is, it’s possible to construe the current outbreak as an opportunity to begin gathering big data about what makes poultry production so vulnerable. Precisely because the disease has spread so widely, data could reveal patterns that haven’t been visible before—whether affected farms use certain feed or water systems, for instance, or buy just-hatched birds from specific breeding lines, or are sited in particular landscape features or lie under the migration routes of identifiable birds. “There isn't a lot of research to show what are absolute best practices, because viruses are stochastic—you don't know exactly when you're going to get an introduction,” says Meghan Davis, a veterinarian and epidemiologist and associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

After the 2015 outbreak, which up to that point was the worst poultry producers could imagine, the industry focused on identifying the human networks that made its farms vulnerable. Companies tried to control how visitors might unknowingly expose them to the virus: through sharing housing with workers from another property, or driving a truck from an infected farm onto a clean one, or carrying mail or even a cell phone that might have been contaminated. The extraordinary expansion of H5N1 flu into wild birds now may mean that producers also have to think about how the environment itself invites exposure. Wetlands attract ducks. Copses shelter raptors that pursue rodents that scavenge spilled grain. It’s an approach that concedes that biosecurity can never be perfect, and that a production system can never fully seal itself off from the world.

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