#export-data-bank

[exportimportdata13]

Explore Import Export Data Online with ExportImportData.in

In the fast-paced world of global trade, businesses require reliable data to make informed decisions. Whether you are an exporter, importer, or trade analyst, access to accurate and comprehensive import-export data is crucial. ExportImportData.in stands out as a premier export import data provider world wide, helping businesses gain a competitive edge in the international market.

Why Access Import Export Data?

Import export data serves as a goldmine of information for traders, manufacturers, and policymakers. By analyzing this data, you can:

Identify Market Trends: Understand what products are in demand globally and which countries are emerging as key trading hubs.

Discover New Opportunities: Pinpoint untapped markets for your products or services.

Monitor Competitors: Keep an eye on competitor activity by studying their trade patterns.

Enhance Supply Chain Efficiency: Collaborate with trusted port data suppliers to streamline logistics and reduce costs.

ExportImportData.in: Your Trusted Import Export Data Provider

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1. Import Export Data Online

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2. Export Import Data Bank

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As a reliable port data supplier, ExportImportData.in offers insights into shipments handled at various ports worldwide. This data helps businesses optimize their shipping routes and reduce transit times.

4. Exim Data Bank

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How to Use ExportImportData.in?

Using ExportImportData.in is straightforward and hassle-free. Here’s a step-by-step guide to accessing the free import export data online:

Visit the Website: Go to ExportImportData.in and explore the homepage.

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Search for Specific Data: Use filters like product name, HS code, or country to narrow down your search.

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Applications of Import Export Data

Trade Research and Analysis

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Why Choose ExportImportData.in Over Competitors?

While several platforms provide import export data, ExportImportData.in stands out for its unique features and benefits:

Comprehensive Database: Covers a wide range of industries, countries, and products.

Cost-Effective Solutions: Offers free import export data online, making it accessible to businesses of all sizes.

Expert Support: A dedicated team of professionals is available to assist users in leveraging the platform effectively.

Conclusion

ExportImportData.in is a game-changer for businesses looking to thrive in the global trade landscape. By providing free import export data online, a robust export import data bank, and reliable services as a port data supplier, the platform equips businesses with the tools they need to succeed. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting, ExportImportData.in is your trusted import export data provider. Visit ExportImportData.in today to explore the vast potential of global trade data.

[fatehbaz]

[T]he Dutch Republic, like its successor the Kingdom of the Netherlands, [...] throughout the early modern period had an advanced maritime [trading, exports] and (financial) service [banking, insurance] sector. Moreover, Dutch involvement in Atlantic slavery stretched over two and a half centuries. [...] Carefully estimating the scope of all the activities involved in moving, processing and retailing the goods derived from the forced labour performed by the enslaved in the Atlantic world [...] [shows] more clearly in what ways the gains from slavery percolated through the Dutch economy. [...] [This web] connected them [...] to the enslaved in Suriname and other Dutch colonies, as well as in non-Dutch colonies such as Saint Domingue [Haiti], which was one of the main suppliers of slave-produced goods to the Dutch economy until the enslaved revolted in 1791 and brought an end to the trade. [...] A significant part of the eighteenth-century Dutch elite was actively engaged in financing, insuring, organising and enabling the slave system, and drew much wealth from it. [...] [A] staggering 19% (expressed in value) of the Dutch Republic's trade in 1770 consisted of Atlantic slave-produced goods such as sugar, coffee, or indigo [...].

---

One point that deserves considerable emphasis is that [this slave-based Dutch wealth] [...] did not just depend on the increasing output of the Dutch Atlantic slave colonies. By 1770, the Dutch imported over fl.8 million worth of sugar and coffee from French ports. [...] [T]hese [...] routes successfully linked the Dutch trade sector to the massive expansion of slavery in Saint Domingue [the French colony of Haiti], which continued until the early 1790s when the revolution of the enslaved on the French part of that island ended slavery.

Before that time, Dutch sugar mills processed tens of millions of pounds of sugar from the French Caribbean, which were then exported over the Rhine and through the Sound to the German and Eastern European ‘slavery hinterlands’.

---

Coffee and indigo flowed through the Dutch Republic via the same trans-imperial routes, while the Dutch also imported tobacco produced by slaves in the British colonies, [and] gold and tobacco produced [by slaves] in Brazil [...]. The value of all the different components of slave-based trade combined amounted to a sum of fl.57.3 million, more than 23% of all the Dutch trade in 1770. [...] However, trade statistics alone cannot answer the question about the weight of this sector within the economy. [...] 1770 was a peak year for the issuing of new plantation loans [...] [T]he main processing industry that was fully based on slave-produced goods was the Holland-based sugar industry [...]. It has been estimated that in 1770 Amsterdam alone housed 110 refineries, out of a total of 150 refineries in the province of Holland. These processed approximately 50 million pounds of raw sugar per year, employing over 4,000 workers. [...] [I]n the four decades from 1738 to 1779, the slave-based contribution to GDP alone grew by fl.20.5 million, thus contributing almost 40% of all growth generated in the economy of Holland in this period. [...]

---

These [slave-based Dutch commodity] chains ran from [the plantation itself, through maritime trade, through commodity processing sites like sugar refineries, through export of these goods] [...] and from there to European metropoles and hinterlands that in the eighteenth century became mass consumers of slave-produced goods such as sugar and coffee. These chains tied the Dutch economy to slave-based production in Suriname and other Dutch colonies, but also to the plantation complexes of other European powers, most crucially the French in Saint Domingue, as the Dutch became major importers and processers of French coffee and sugar that they then redistributed to Northern and Central Europe. [...]

The explosive growth of production on slave plantations in the Dutch Guianas, combined with the international boom in coffee and sugar consumption, ensured that consistently high proportions (19% in 1770) of commodities entering and exiting Dutch harbors were produced on Atlantic slave plantations. [...] The Dutch economy profited from this Atlantic boom both as direct supplier of slave-produced goods [from slave plantations in the Dutch Guianas, from Dutch processing of sugar from slave plantations in French Haiti] and as intermediary [physically exporting sugar and coffee] between the Atlantic slave complexes of other European powers and the Northern and Central European hinterland.

---

Text above by: Pepijn Brandon and Ulbe Bosma. "Slavery and the Dutch economy, 1750-1800". Slavery & Abolition Volume 42 (2021), Issue 1. Published online 28 February 2021. DOI at: doi dot org slash 10.1080/01440396 . 2021. 1860464 [Text within brackets added by me for clarity and context. Bold emphasis and some paragraph breaks/contractions added by me. Presented here for commentary, teaching, criticism.]

[exportimport12]

Discover powerful global trade intelligence with Eximpedia. Access real-time import export data online, including US Customs Data, Exim Data Bank, and import/export trends from Ukraine, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh.

[exportimportdataa]

Explore India’s thriving import-export market with real-time Indian Import and Export Data, and the official Import Export Data Bank. Discover top export products, trade trends, and connect with global buyers and suppliers through ExportImportData.in.

[seairexim]

In-Depth Turkey Export Data for Market Analysis

Access detailed Turkey export data to discover key export trends, top industries, and trade statistics. Stay informed to enhance your business strategy and market insights.

For More Info Visit: https://www.seair.co.in/global-trade-data/turkey-export-data.aspx

[emmawilliams12]

Navigating Turkey's dynamic commerce landscape demands adeptness. Situated at the crossroads of continents, Turkey is a vital trade hub. To thrive, leverage key resources like the turkey importers list and master trade regulations. Here are ten crucial insights.

[seair]

Export import data bank

Accurate Export import data bank serves as a compass for businesses, helping them identify emerging markets, assess competition, and make informed pricing decisions. It allows companies to align their strategies with prevailing market trends. Connect with Seair Exim Solutions to discover global market insights at your fingertips.

[otherworldlyinfo]

WallyGPT: The Growth of Wally and Revolutionizing Personal Finance

The Birth of Wally: A Solution to Common WoesWally’s Early Days: Bridging the Gap with Machine LearningVersion 3.0: Automated Tracking and Global ReachWallyGPT Emerges: The AI RevolutionHyper-Personalization at Its Finest: WallyGPT in ActionGlobal Impact and Data Privacy AssuranceEmpowering Through Uncertainty: Navigating Economic ChallengesA Journey of Innovation and Empowerment with…

[mostlysignssomeportents]

Shifting $677m from the banks to the people, every year, forever

I'll be in TUCSON, AZ from November 8-10: I'm the GUEST OF HONOR at the TUSCON SCIENCE FICTION CONVENTION.

"Switching costs" are one of the great underappreciated evils in our world: the more it costs you to change from one product or service to another, the worse the vendor, provider, or service you're using today can treat you without risking your business.

Businesses set out to keep switching costs as high as possible. Literally. Mark Zuckerberg's capos send him memos chortling about how Facebook's new photos feature will punish anyone who leaves for a rival service with the loss of all their family photos – meaning Zuck can torment those users for profit and they'll still stick around so long as the abuse is less bad than the loss of all their cherished memories:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2021/08/facebooks-secret-war-switching-costs

It's often hard to quantify switching costs. We can tell when they're high, say, if your landlord ties your internet service to your lease (splitting the profits with a shitty ISP that overcharges and underdelivers), the switching cost of getting a new internet provider is the cost of moving house. We can tell when they're low, too: you can switch from one podcatcher program to another just by exporting your list of subscriptions from the old one and importing it into the new one:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/10/16/keep-it-really-simple-stupid/#read-receipts-are-you-kidding-me-seriously-fuck-that-noise

But sometimes, economists can get a rough idea of the dollar value of high switching costs. For example, a group of economists working for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau calculated that the hassle of changing banks is costing Americans at least $677m per year (see page 526):

https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/cfpb_personal-financial-data-rights-final-rule_2024-10.pdf

The CFPB economists used a very conservative methodology, so the number is likely higher, but let's stick with that figure for now. The switching costs of changing banks – determining which bank has the best deal for you, then transfering over your account histories, cards, payees, and automated bill payments – are costing everyday Americans more than half a billion dollars, every year.

Now, the CFPB wasn't gathering this data just to make you mad. They wanted to do something about all this money – to find a way to lower switching costs, and, in so doing, transfer all that money from bank shareholders and executives to the American public.

And that's just what they did. A newly finalized Personal Financial Data Rights rule will allow you to authorize third parties – other banks, comparison shopping sites, brokers, anyone who offers you a better deal, or help you find one – to request your account data from your bank. Your bank will be required to provide that data.

I loved this rule when they first proposed it:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/10/getting-things-done/#deliverism

And I like the final rule even better. They've really nailed this one, even down to the fine-grained details where interop wonks like me get very deep into the weeds. For example, a thorny problem with interop rules like this one is "who gets to decide how the interoperability works?" Where will the data-formats come from? How will we know they're fit for purpose?

This is a super-hard problem. If we put the monopolies whose power we're trying to undermine in charge of this, they can easily cheat by delivering data in uselessly obfuscated formats. For example, when I used California's privacy law to force Mailchimp to provide list of all the mailing lists I've been signed up for without my permission, they sent me thousands of folders containing more than 5,900 spreadsheets listing their internal serial numbers for the lists I'm on, with no way to find out what these lists are called or how to get off of them:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/07/22/degoogled/#kafka-as-a-service

So if we're not going to let the companies decide on data formats, who should be in charge of this? One possibility is to require the use of a standard, but again, which standard? We can ask a standards body to make a new standard, which they're often very good at, but not when the stakes are high like this. Standards bodies are very weak institutions that large companies are very good at capturing:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/04/30/weak-institutions/

Here's how the CFPB solved this: they listed out the characteristics of a good standards body, listed out the data types that the standard would have to encompass, and then told banks that so long as they used a standard from a good standards body that covered all the data-types, they'd be in the clear.

Once the rule is in effect, you'll be able to go to a comparison shopping site and authorize it to go to your bank for your transaction history, and then tell you which bank – out of all the banks in America – will pay you the most for your deposits and charge you the least for your debts. Then, after you open a new account, you can authorize the new bank to go back to your old bank and get all your data: payees, scheduled payments, payment history, all of it. Switching banks will be as easy as switching mobile phone carriers – just a few clicks and a few minutes' work to get your old number working on a phone with a new provider.

This will save Americans at least $677 million, every year. Which is to say, it will cost the banks at least $670 million every year.

Naturally, America's largest banks are suing to block the rule:

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/cfpbs-open-banking-rule-faces-suit-from-bank-policy-institute

Of course, the banks claim that they're only suing to protect you, and the $677m annual transfer from their investors to the public has nothing to do with it. The banks claim to be worried about bank-fraud, which is a real thing that we should be worried about. They say that an interoperability rule could make it easier for scammers to get at your data and even transfer your account to a sleazy fly-by-night operation without your consent. This is also true!

It is obviously true that a bad interop rule would be bad. But it doesn't follow that every interop rule is bad, or that it's impossible to make a good one. The CFPB has made a very good one.

For starters, you can't just authorize anyone to get your data. Eligible third parties have to meet stringent criteria and vetting. These third parties are only allowed to ask for the narrowest slice of your data needed to perform the task you've set for them. They aren't allowed to use that data for anything else, and as soon as they've finished, they must delete your data. You can also revoke their access to your data at any time, for any reason, with one click – none of this "call a customer service rep and wait on hold" nonsense.

What's more, if your bank has any doubts about a request for your data, they are empowered to (temporarily) refuse to provide it, until they confirm with you that everything is on the up-and-up.

I wrote about the lawsuit this week for @eff@mastodon.social's Deeplinks blog:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/10/no-matter-what-bank-says-its-your-money-your-data-and-your-choice

In that article, I point out the tedious, obvious ruses of securitywashing and privacywashing, where a company insists that its most abusive, exploitative, invasive conduct can't be challenged because that would expose their customers to security and privacy risks. This is such bullshit.

It's bullshit when printer companies say they can't let you use third party ink – for your own good:

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2024/01/hp-ceo-blocking-third-party-ink-from-printers-fights-viruses/

It's bullshit when car companies say they can't let you use third party mechanics – for your own good:

https://pluralistic.net/2020/09/03/rip-david-graeber/#rolling-surveillance-platforms

It's bullshit when Apple says they can't let you use third party app stores – for your own good:

https://www.eff.org/document/letter-bruce-schneier-senate-judiciary-regarding-app-store-security

It's bullshit when Facebook says you can't independently monitor the paid disinformation in your feed – for your own good:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/05/comprehensive-sex-ed/#quis-custodiet-ipsos-zuck

And it's bullshit when the banks say you can't change to a bank that charges you less, and pays you more – for your own good.

CFPB boss Rohit Chopra is part of a cohort of Biden enforcers who've hit upon a devastatingly effective tactic for fighting corporate power: they read the law and found out what they're allowed to do, and then did it:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/10/23/getting-stuff-done/#praxis

The CFPB was created in 2010 with the passage of the Consumer Financial Protection Act, which specifically empowers the CFPB to make this kind of data-sharing rule. Back when the CFPA was in Congress, the banks howled about this rule, whining that they were being forced to share their data with their competitors.

But your account data isn't your bank's data. It's your data. And the CFPB is gonna let you have it, and they're gonna save you and your fellow Americans at least $677m/year – forever.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/11/01/bankshot/#personal-financial-data-rights

[najia-cooks]

[ID: A bowl of avocado spread sculpted into a pattern, topped with olive oil and garnished with symmetrical lines of nigella seeds and piles of pomegranate seeds; a pile of pita bread is in the background. End ID]

متبل الأفوكادو / Mutabbal al-'afukadu (Palestinian avocado dip)

Avocados are not native to Palestine. Israeli settlers planted them in Gaza in the 1980s, before being evicted when Israel evacuated all its settlements in Gaza in 2005. The avocados, however, remained, and Gazans continued to cultivate them for their fall and winter harvest. Avocados have been folded into the repertoire of a "new" Palestinian cuisine, as Gazans and other Palestinians have found ways to interpret them.

Palestinians may add local ingredients to dishes traditionally featuring avocado (such as Palestinian guacamole, "جواكامولي فلسطيني" or "غواكامولي فلسطيني"), or use avocado in Palestinian dishes that typically use other vegetables (pickling them, for example, or adding them to salads alongside tomato and cucumber).

Another dish in this latter category is حمص الافوكادو (hummus al-'afukadu)—avocado hummus—in which avocado is smoothly blended with lemon juice, white tahina (طحينة البيضاء, tahina al-bayda'), salt, and olive oil. Yet another is متبّل الأفوكادو (mutabbal al-'afukadu). Mutabbal is a spiced version of بابا غنوج (baba ghannouj)‎: "مُتَبَّل" means "spiced" or "seasoned," from "مُ" "mu-," a participlizing prefix, + "تَبَّلَ" "tabbala‎," "to have spices added to." Here, fresh avocado replaces the roasted eggplant usually used to make this smooth dip; it is mixed with green chili pepper, lemon juice, garlic, white tahina, sumac, and labna (لبنة) or yoghurt. Either of these dishes may be topped with sesame or nigella seeds, pomegranate seeds, fresh dill, or chopped nuts, and eaten with sliced and toasted flatbread.

Avocados' history in Palestine precedes their introduction to Gaza. They were originally planted in 1908 by a French order of monks, but these trees have not survived. It was after the Balfour Declaration of 1917 (in which Britain, having been promised colonial control of Palestine with the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire after World War 1, pledged to establish "a national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine) that avocado agriculture began to take root.

In the 1920s, 30s, and 40s, encouraged by Britain, Jewish Europeans began to immigrate to Palestine in greater numbers and establish agricultural settlements (leaving an estimated 29.4% of peasant farming families without land by 1929). Seeds and seedlings from several varieties of avocado were introduced from California by private companies, research stations, and governmental bodies (including Mikveh Israel, a school which provided settlers with agricultural training). In these years, prices were too high for Palestinian buyers, and quantities were too low for export.

It wasn't until after the beginning of the Nakba (the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from "Jewish" areas following the UN partition of Palestine in 1947) that avocado plantings became significant. With Palestinians having been violently expelled from most of the area's arable land, settlers were free to plant avocados en masse for export, aided (until 1960) by long-term, low-interest loans from the Israeli government. The 400 acres planted within Israel's claimed borders in 1955 ballooned to 2,000 acres in 1965, then 9,000 by 1975, and over 17,000 by 1997. By 1986, Israel was producing enough avocados to want to renegotiate trade agreements with Europe in light of the increase.

Israeli companies also attained commercial success selling avocados planted on settlements within the West Bank. As of 2014, an estimated 4.5% of Israeli avocado exports were grown in the occupied Jordan Valley alone (though data about crops grown in illegal settlements is of course difficult to obtain). These crops were often tended by Palestinian workers, including children, in inhumane conditions and at starvation wages. Despite a European Union order to specify the origin of such produce as "territories occupied by Israel since 1967," it is often simply marked "Israel." Several grocery stores across Europe, including Carrefour, Lidl, Dunnes Stores, and Aldi, even falsified provenance information on avocados and other fruits in order to circumvent consumer boycotts of goods produced in Israel altogether—claiming, for example, that they were from Morocco or Cyprus.

Meanwhile, while expanding its own production of avocados, Israel was directing, limiting, and destabilizing Palestinian agriculture in an attempt to eliminate competition. In 1982, Israel prohibited the planting of fruit trees without first obtaining permission from military authorities; in practice, this resulted in Palestinians (in Gaza and the West Bank) being entirely barred from planting new mango and avocado trees, even to replace old, unproductive ones.

Conditions worsened in the years following the second intifada. Between September of 2000 and September of 2003, Israeli military forces destroyed wells, pumps, and an estimated 85% of the agricultural land in al-Sayafa, northern Gaza, where farmers had been using irrigation systems and greenhouses to grow fruits including citrus, apricots, and avocados. They barred almost all travel into and out of al-Sayafa: blocking off all roads that lead to the area, building barricades topped with barbed wire, preventing entry within 150 meters of the barricade under threat of gunfire, and opening crossings only at limited times of day and only for specific people, if at all.

A July 2001 prohibition on Palestinian vehicles within al-Sayafa further slashed agricultural production, forcing farmers to rely on donkeys and hand carts to tend their fields and to transport produce across the crossing. If the crossing happened to be closed, or the carts could not transport all the produce in time, fruits and vegetables would sit waiting in the sun until they rotted and could not be sold. The 2007 blockade worsened Gaza's economy still further, strictly limiting imports and prohibiting exports entirely (though later on, there would be exceptions made for small quantities of specific crops).

In the following years, Israel allowed imports of food items into Gaza not exceeding the bare minimum for basic sustenance, based on an estimation of the caloric needs of its inhabitants. Permitted (apples, bananas, persimmons, flour) and banned items for import (avocados, dates, grapes) were ostensibly based on "necessary" versus "luxury" foods, but were in fact directed according to where Israeli farmers could expect the most profit.

Though most of the imports admitted into Gaza continued to come from Israel, Gazan farmers kept pursuing self-sufficiency. In 2011, farmers working on a Hamas-government-led project in the former settlements produced avocados, mangoes, and most of the grapes, onions, and melons that Gazans ate; by 2015, though still forbidden from exporting excess, they were self-sufficient in the production of crops including onions, watermelon, cantaloupe, grapes, almonds, olives, and apples.

Support Palestinian resistance by calling Elbit System’s (Israel’s primary weapons manufacturer) landlord, donating to Palestine Action’s bail fund, and donating to the Bay Area Anti-Repression Committee bail fund.

Ingredients:

2 medium avocados (300g total)

1/4 cup white tahina

2 Tbsp labna (لبنة), or yoghurt (laban, لبن رايب)

1 green chili pepper

2 cloves garlic

2 Tbsp good olive oil

Juice of 1/2 lemon (1 1/2 Tbsp)

1 tsp table salt, or to taste

Pomegranate seeds, slivered almonds, pine nuts, chopped dill, nigella seeds, sesame seeds, sumac, and/or olive oil, to serve

Khubiz al-kmaj (pita bread), to serve

Instructions:

1. In a mortar and pestle, crush garlic, pepper, and a bit of salt into a fine paste.

2. Add avocados and mash to desired texture. Stir in tahina, labna, olive oil, lemon juice, and additional salt.

You can also combine all ingredients in a blender or food processor.

3. Top with a generous drizzle of olive oil. Add toppings, as desired.

4. Cut pita into small rectangles or triangles and separate one half from the other (along where the pocket is). Toast in the oven, or in a large, dry skillet, stirring occasionally, until golden brown. Serve dip alongside toasted pita chips.

[zahri-melitor]

Oh go you good things: Guardian Australia tracked down the exact imports that caused the Norfolk Island and Heard & McDonald Islands "imports' in the data. Spoilers: people using the wrong location codes by accident.

Norfolk Island:

In some cases involving Norfolk Island, which is 1,600km north-east of Sydney and has a population of 2,188, the confusion appears to have resulted from the fact that the company’s address or port of departure is Norfolk, UK, or the destination is Norfolk, Virginia in the US, or a company’s registered address in New Hampshire (NH) has been listed instead as Norfolk Island (NI).

Heard & McDonald Islands:

The territory does have a fishery but no buildings or human habitation. Despite this, according to export data from the World Bank, the US imported US$1.4m (A$2.23m) of products from Heard Island and McDonald Islands in 2022, nearly all of which was “machinery and electrical” imports. The Guardian has identified multiple bills of lading that suggest exports originated from the remote islands but are largely steel or plastic imports from Europe to the US. The paperwork lists the shipper’s address as being in the Heard Island and McDonald Islands rather than Germany or Austria, however.

[oneiriad]

I think the best part of the US imposing tariffs on the poor, feathery citizens of Heard and McDonald Islands is that, according to this article:

"according to export data from the World Bank, the US imported US$1.4m (A$2.23m) of products from Heard Island and McDonald Islands in 2022, nearly all of which was “machinery and electrical” imports"

Hey, America! What kind of capitalist hellhole imports machinery made in penguin sweatshops?!

Excuse me, the world is absurd, I need to snigger about it.

[exportimport12]

Discover key France trade partners and explore updated France import export data, trade statistics, and insights with Exim Data Bank.

[mariacallous]

Now that Donald Trump is returning to a second term as U.S. president, ascertaining the true state of Russia’s war economy is more important than ever. Trump’s advisors believe that Ukraine must settle for peace by whatever means necessary “to stop the killing.” Implicit in this argument is the view that Russia has the ability to sustain the war for many years to come. On close examination of the evidence, however, the narrative that Russia has the resources to prevail if it so chooses does not hold.

The apparent resilience of the Russian economy has confounded many strategists who expected Western sanctions to paralyze Moscow’s war effort against Ukraine. Russia continues to export vast quantities of oil, gas, and other commodities—the result of sanctions evasion and loopholes deliberately designed by Western policymakers to keep Russian resources on world markets. So far, clever macroeconomic management, particularly by Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, has enabled the Kremlin to keep the Russian financial system in relative health.

At first glance, the numbers look surprisingly strong. In 2023, GDP grew by 3.6 percent and is expected to rise by 3.9 percent in 2024. Unemployment has fallen from around 4.4 percent before the war to 2.4 percent in September. Moscow has expanded its armed forces and defense production, adding more than 500,000 workers to the defense industry, approximately 180,000 to the armed forces, and many thousands more to paramilitary and private military organizations. Russia has reportedly tripled its production of artillery shells to 3 million per year and is manufacturing glide bombs and drones at scale.

Despite these accomplishments, Russia’s war economy is heading toward an impasse. Signs that the official data masks severe economic strains brought on by both war and sanctions have become increasingly apparent. No matter how many workers it tries to shift to the defense industry, the Kremlin cannot expand production fast enough to replace weapons at the rate they are being lost on the battlefield. Already, about around half of all artillery shells used by Russia in Ukraine are from North Korean stocks. At some point in the second half of 2025, Russia will face severe shortages in several categories of weapons.

Perhaps foremost among Russia’s arms bottlenecks is its inability to replace large-caliber cannons. According to open-source researchers using video documentation, Russia has been losing more than 100 tanks and roughly 220 artillery pieces per month on average. Producing tank and artillery barrels requires rotary forges—massive pieces of engineering weighing 20 to 30 tons each—that can each produce only about 10 barrels a month. Russia only possesses two such forges.

In other words, Russia is losing around 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month and producing only 20. The Russian engineering industry lacks the skills to build rotary forges; in fact, the world market is dominated by a single Austrian company, GFM. Russia is unlikely to acquire more forges and increase its production rate, and neither North Korea nor Iran have significant stockpiles of suitable replacement barrels. Only a decision by China to provide barrels from its own stockpiles could stave off Russia’s barrel crisis.

To resupply its forces, Russia has been stripping tank and artillery barrels from the vast stockpiles it inherited from the Soviet Union. But these stockpiles have withered since the start of the war. Combining current rates of battlefield loss, recycling from stockpiles, and production, Russia looks set to run out of cannon barrels some time in 2025.

Russia is consuming other weapons, too, at rates far faster than its ability to produce them. Open-source researchers have counted the loss of at least 4,955 infantry fighting vehicles since the war’s onset, which comes out to an average of 155 per month. Russian defense contractors can produce an estimated 200 per year, or about 17 per month, to offset these losses. Likewise, even Russia’s expanded production of 3 million artillery shells per year pales in comparison to the various estimates for current consumption at the front. While those estimates are lower than the 12 million rounds Russian forces fired in 2022, they are much higher than what Russian industry can produce.

We do not know when Russia will hit the end of the road with each equipment type. But there is little the Kremlin can do little to stave off that day. With the Russian economy essentially at full employment, Russian defense companies now struggle to attract workers. To make matters worse, these companies are competing for the same personnel as the Russian armed forces, which need to recruit 30,000 fresh troops each month to replace casualties. To this end, the military is offering lavish signing bonuses and greatly increased pay. Defense producers, in turn, have had to increase wages fivefold, contributing to an inflation rate that reached 8.68 percent in October.

Paradoxically, the same factors that are converging to restrict Russia’s ability to wage war also mean that it cannot easily make peace.

Russia’s economic performance—marked by low unemployment and rising wages—is a product of military Keynesianism. In other words: Vast military expenditures, which are unsustainable in the long term, are artificially boosting employment and growth. Almost all the new jobs are related to the military and produce little of value to the civilian economy, where most sectors have great difficulty finding workers.

Defense spending has officially jumped to 7 percent of Russia’s GDP and is projected to consume more than 41 percent of the state budget next year. The true magnitude of military expenditures is significantly higher. Russia’s nearly 560,000 armed internal security troops, many of which have been deployed to occupied Ukraine, are funded outside the defense budget—as are the private military companies that have sprouted across Russia.

Paring back these massive defense expenditures, however, will inevitably produce an economic downturn. If the Kremlin draws down the armed forces to a sustainable level, large numbers of traumatized veterans and well-paid defense workers will find themselves redundant. The experience of other societies—in particular, European states after World War I—suggests that hordes of demobilized soldiers and jobless defense workers are a recipe for political instability.

The magnitude of the post-war Russian recession will be all the worse because Russia’s civilian economy—particularly small- and medium-sized firms—has shrunk due to the war. In a phenomenon familiar to economists, high defense expenditures have bid up salaries and attracted labor away from nondefense firms. The Russian Central Bank’s policy of raising interest rates, which currently stand at 21 percent, has made it much more difficult for nondefense companies to raise capital through loans. In post-war Russia, a shrunken civilian sector will not be able to absorb the soldiers and workers cast off by the military and defense sector.

Therefore, Russia’s leaders face an unenviable set of dilemmas entirely of their own making. Russia cannot continue waging the current war beyond late 2025, when it will begin running out of key weapons systems.

Concluding a peace agreement, however, poses a different set of problems, as the Kremlin needs to choose between three unpalatable options. If it draws down the armed forces and defense industries, it will spark a recession that could threaten the regime. If Russian policymakers instead maintain high levels of defense spending and a bloated peacetime military, it will asphyxiate the Russian economy, crowding out civilian industry, and stifle growth. Having experienced the Soviet Union’s decline and fall for similar economic reasons, Russian leaders will probably seek to avoid this fate.

A third option, however, is available and likely beguiling: Rather than demobilizing or bankrupting themselves, Russian leaders could instead use their military to obtain the economic resources needed to sustain it—in other words, using conquest and the threat thereof to pay for the military.

Plenty of precedents exist. In 1803, French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte ended 14 months of peace in Europe because he could not afford to fund his military based on French revenues alone—and he also refused to demobilize it. In 1990, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein similarly invaded oil-rich Kuwait because he could not afford to pay the million-man army that he refused to downsize. In both cases, the mirage of conquest seemed attractive for sustaining overly large defense establishments without having to pay for them.

Russia could likewise exploit its expanded military to extract rents from other states. Even though Russia is running out of key weapons systems for its all-out war on Ukraine, its forces will still be capable of punctual acts of aggression. Indeed, it’s easy to imagine how Russia might pursue such a policy.

Substantial offshore gas reserves have been discovered in the Black Sea within Ukraine’s and Georgia’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Whenever Western states are distracted by other priorities, Russia could also renew its aggression against Ukraine in order to gain control of its agricultural, gas, and rare-earth resources. Finally, Russia might use threats of force rather than actually fighting in order to coerce European states to withdraw sanctions, unfreeze Russian assets, or reopen gas and oil pipelines.

Some important lessons emerge. First, Russia’s economy cannot indefinitely sustain its war against Ukraine. Labor and production bottlenecks will condemn Russia to defeat as long as Ukraine’s allies sustain it beyond the second half of 2025. Contrary to the myth of infinite Russian resources, the Kremlin’s armies are far from unbeatable. But Russia’s defeat demands a level of Western patience and commitment that a combination of vacillating Western leaders and volatile domestic politics renders questionable.

Second, the cessation of full-scale fighting in Ukraine will not end the West’s problems with Russia. Russia’s supersized military sector incentivizes the Kremlin to use its military to extract rents from neighboring states. The alternatives—demobilizing and incurring a recession or indefinitely funding a bloated military and defense industry—pose existential threats to Putin’s regime.

However Russia ends its current war, the country’s economic realities alone will generate new forms of insecurity for Europe. Far-sighted policymakers should focus on mitigating these future threats, even as they focus on how the current round of fighting in Ukraine will end.

[seairexim]

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Capitalism and Genocide

Mathias Clivaz and Hugues Poltier. October 15, 2024.

1. In 2007, Israeli lawyer Ram Caspi published the following in the Tel Aviv-based financial daily Globes: "Neither ground invasion nor air attack, but strangulation... [...] the Israeli government will take steps to cut Gaza off from essential resources such as fuel, water, electricity, telephone, and will prevent anyone from providing them." (quoted by G. Levy in Haaretz, 10.6.2007) The election of Hamas that year – which Israel supported in order to oust Fatah – provides a ready-made pretext for initiating a blockade of the Gaza Strip. Slowly suffocated, GDP per capita falls by 27% and unemployment rises by 49% between 2007 and 2018.

2. But the stranglehold is only just beginning. There are signs, both rhetorical and institutional, of what is coming. In 2009, B. Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel, a position he will hold for eleven years, then again from 2022; and on several occasions he aims to make the Palestinians an abject people, for example when he blames them in a speech in 2015 of having suggested the Final Solution to Hitler. But it's really with the election of D. Trump to the White House in 2017 that everything accelerates. In obviously coordinated moves, the USA recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital and transfers its embassy there in May 2018 and, two months later, the Knesset approves a constitutional law that ratifies the settlement process in the West Bank, and declares Jerusalem the "whole and unified" capital of Israel. The two-State solution is buried.

3. The next stage is to secure impunity and consolidate power. A step in this direction is taken with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, again under the patronage of D. Trump: peace agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), followed by normalization of diplomatic relations with Morocco and Sudan. Then in 2022, Israel and the UAE sign a free-trade agreement. The stakes are clear: normalization-pacification of Israel's relations with its Arab neighbors, bypassing the Palestinian question. — European companies are not to be outdone. A study by the coalition Don't Buy Into Occupation showed that between January 2020 and August 2023, 776 European financial institutions (including BNP Paribas, HSBC, Deutsche Bank and Société Générale, to name just the top four creditors) had dealings with 51 companies actively involved in Israeli settlements, for a total investment of $164.2 billion, and a stake of $144.7 billion in shares and bonds. This despite the fact that, under international law, such investments in occupied territories are illegal. — The American tech giants are there also. In 2022, Amazon and Google signed lucrative contracts with Tel Aviv for the construction of data centersand with the army to manage their cloud operations, including maintaining surveillance data on most Palestinians living in Gaza, data that is being used by the AI models that determine who should be targeted for attacks[1].

4. A transnational network of capital has thus been set up, whose interest lies in the growth of the Israeli State and its regional supremacy. This in turn involves the arms trade: Israel, whose defense budget is the highest on the planet as a proportion of GDP, is enabling the US military-industrial complex – which supplies 69% of its weapons – to make record profits in 2023 (the conflict in Ukraine being the other major market that year). Germany is not to be outdone, since the country supplies around 30% of Israel’s weapons. The United Kingdom, Italy, France and other countries are also part of this security-capitalist alliance, to which are added all the companies that export "dual-use" and consumer goods to Israel, have industrial, commercial and educational partnerships with Israel — and buy its surveillance systems.

5. In the meantime, the hands have tightened around the victim's neck: walls have been erected between 2017 and 2021 around the entire perimeter of the Gaza Strip, now a hermetically sealed open-air prison. The strangler waits, observing the effects of asphyxiation on his victim. The victim calls for help, but no one comes. Others sound the alarm, but no one listens. So the victim screams and struggles. And Israel will conclude – and with Israel all the countries of the Global North who have a hand in the operation – that Gaza is threatening Israel.

6. On October 7, 2023, 1,139 Israelis are killed by Hamas and other Palestinian groups. These included around 800 civilians. Atrocities were committed, with Hamas guilty of war crimes. Israelis are also killed under the “friendly fire” of the Israeli army, whose military doctrine aims to prevent hostage-taking. Hamas took 252 Israeli hostages captive, with the probable aim of exchanging them for the more than 1,300 Palestinians then being held in administrative detention (imprisoned without charge or trial) in Israeli prisons. But the Israeli scriptwriters have already written the rest of the story: Israel accuses Hamas of posing an "existential threat to Israel" and invokes the right to defend itself. Never mind that Hamas has no means of destroying Israel, and that in its 2017 Charter it declared itself in favor of a two-State solution on the 1967 borders.

7. From October 7, 2023, the declarations of genocidal intent are explicit. B. Netanyahu declared on October 12: “We will fight these savage beasts with all our might, destroy them and wipe them off the face of the earth”. Israel's president, I. Herzog, on October 13: “It is a whole nation that is responsible. The rhetoric about citizens not being involved, not being aware, is absolutely false.” A. Dichter, Minister of Agriculture, on November 12: “We are now carrying out the Gaza Nakba”. And it will continue. B. Smotrich, Minister of Finance, in May 2024: “There is no job half done. Rafah, Deir al-Balah, Nousseirat - total destruction.” The organization Law for Palestine has listed more than 500 instances of calls for genocide during the first months of Israel's war on Gaza[2]. Starting October 2023, there is no doubt that Israel launches a war of annihilation.

8. At the same time, Israel invests millions to circulate propaganda messages on all the channels of the global North, including the most macabre fake news (forty babies beheaded by Hamas, a pregnant woman disembowelled, etc.), picked up on a loop by Germany and the USA. On smartphone screens across the planet, the cognitive war is in full swing: between the selection of the visible by Silicon Valley algorithms and the oligarchy's stranglehold on the mainstream media; between the constant threat of accusations of anti-Semitism against individuals and the editorial offices of independent newspapers, and the more than 100 journalists killed in Gaza by the Israeli army in 6 months. In plain sight, disguising the announced massacre of the Palestinian people as a "fight against terrorism", the "world's most moral army" is strangling Gaza, strangling it with fury, strangling it with the laughter of Israeli soldiers on Tik Tok, strangling it to death.

9. In truth, it's nothing new. As historians know, this is the latest act in an ethnic cleansing that began in 1948, and whose tools are forced displacement (over 6 million Palestinians are refugees in neighboring countries), apartheid of Israel's Arab citizens (kept under 20% of the country's population), the murderous and violent colonization of the West Bank, the destruction of Palestinian land and infrastructure, and the normalization of arbitrary detentions, executions, torture and sexual abuse, including in Israeli camps where 9,700 Palestinians, most of them kidnapped, were being arbitrarily detained in July 2024. Nothing new, and that's the problem.

10. In the year following October 7, 2023, Gaza's Ministry of Health has counted 41,689 Palestinian deaths because of Israel's war, the overwhelming majority of them civilians and, according to the UN, over 15,000 children. That's without counting the number of wounded (at least 96,625) and sick, the chronically ill (around 350,000), the malnourished and starving (100% of the population), the severely mentally harmed (100% of the population), in a situation where hospitals have been systematically bombed by Israel. Schools, places of worship, universities, housing, refugee centers, water management infrastructures, heritage – nothing is spared. In August, the UN satellite agency reported a volume of debris in Gaza 14 times greater than the combined total of all the conflicts of the last 16 years. The body politic of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip has been effectively annihilated. To understand the extent of the massacre and the intent behind it, we need to add up the direct and indirect victims, and multiply these figures (based on the experience of past wars and genocides) by a factor of 3 to 15[3]. that puts Palestinian deaths to date at between 150,000 and 770,000, or 9% to 30% of the Gazan population. But while the countries of the Global South and a few rare voices in the North call for an end to the genocide, the USA and Germany continue to deliver arms, unperturbed.

11. There are several conclusions to be drawn from these events, which will enable us to get to the heart of the problem facing all societies today.

12. First conclusion: the crime of genocide does not exist in a binary yes/no mode. It is a process, beginning with an aim and ending with its implementation by all kinds of means, not just State means. In this respect, when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concluded that there was a "real and imminent risk of genocide" in January 2024, it established de facto that genocide was underway. By the same reasoning, Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children and their Russification amounts to genocide (Art. II, e), as does China's treatment of the Uighur people. Second conclusion: the alliance between Israel, the USA, Germany and a few others points to the rise of white capitalism, a trans-imperial formation whose supremacism is being exercised here against the Arab populations of the Middle East. As has been demonstrated time and again, capitalist States use racism in their imperialist ventures as much as in the colonization of their own populations. Third conclusion: capitalism, now complete on a planetary scale, is experiencing an acceleration in the frequency of its crises, due to its illimitation in a world of limited resources. The capitalist response to each crisis of capital is the same: to proceed with the fascization of society, with the aim of ensuring the further concentration of capital and the continuity of existing privileges, through the militarization of States, authoritarianism and the transformation of market competition into a war of "us" against "them" (à la Huntington). Low-key fascism has become the norm in "liberal democracies". Fourth conclusion: the war between rival capitalisms (American, Chinese, Russian, Indian, Europeans) is expressed by the intensification of imperialist struggles aimed at securing a greater capacity to mobilize resources, both material and human. The instrumentalization of racism leads to the total degradation of populations of no interest to capital. Understood as waste, they are integrated by capitalism via an economy of destruction that identifies them with the material substratum of their living environment. And so, after Gaza, the bombs rain down on Lebanon. Two lessons here: the imperative of control over the world’s most important oil-producing region remains a priority for US imperialism; the ensuing demand for "regional normalization" authorizes the treatment of hostile populations living there as enemies or waste to be eliminated. The USA and its allies, in any case, are arming this annihilation. There is a clear continuity here between the Nazi holocaust of the Jews and the genocide of the Palestinians by Israel and its allies, insofar as both peoples were/are treated as "obstacles" to a supremacist project, and put to death with capitalist tools. Fifth conclusion: since capitalist rationality is built on the reification of "nature", every non-human being is assimilated to a commodity. In this context, identifying a human being with "nature" is tantamount to degrading them: the Negro slave is historically the figure of the identification of human beings with a commodified nature, transformed into pure labor or merchandise. At the other extreme, this logic implies that the supremacy of one race over another is ipso facto the domination of the "human" over "nature". Capitalism, linked to the techno-scientific project of modernity, cannot be understood outside the interweaving of genocide – the destruction of peoples as raw material – and ecocide. Indeed, it is impossible to defend human rights without also defending the rights of nature.

13. How do capitalism and genocide fit together? First, on the immediate material level, capitalism, because it is defined by growth and because growth is today unrestrained, necessarily leads to the normalization of exclusion in the mobilization of resources. In order to exclude, capitalism engages social and State forces to degrade the target populations so as to dispose of them as pure resources. This zone of organized death is a potential reality anywhere on the planet, for all living beings: whether it's a matter of grabbing a territory rich in raw materials, gentrifying a neighborhood, managing immigration, or building a factory. Capitalism’s dream is to achieve an absolute mobilization of resources, viewing life as matter to be destroyed and shaped at will at the service of profit. Second, capitalism, on the immaterial level, is indexed to the valorization of value, i.e. to the valorization of capital, through constant and unfettered growth, in profit, in size and scale. As a result, capitalism enters a crisis at the first sign of a decline in surplus value. The response to this decline is always the same: for the same quantity produced, reduce human labor by replacing it with dead labor (machines, AI, etc.); and/or increase the quantities produced to at least maintain the level of surplus value. This has a twofold effect: it increases the absolute number of excluded/wastes that can be eliminated without damaging capitalism; and it increases global environmental predation, as shown by N. Machado[4].

14. The Palestinians are the figure of a population relegated to the rank of waste in the capitalist order, since they have been and are kept outside the global logic of value. In truth, they are valued more from being massacred than from being kept alive, since they are much more integrated into the logic of value through the arms market, and later through the market of “reconstruction”. If we shift the focus to other populations kept outside the circuits of valorization and "sitting" on exploitable resources, the conclusion is similar: their extermination is required by the demand to maximize profit; or, at the very least, their forced displacement. Extraction to maintain growth has as its necessary flip side the erasure of the rights of these populations, which happens simply by the signature of business contracts.

15. This dynamic gives rise to what we call, following A. Mbembé, a necropolitics[5]. At the heart of this process is integrated capitalism's ability to play both sides of the public/private, State/entrepreneurial divide, enabling it to pre-empt the legislative capacity of political bodies and the right of populations to self-determination. We can speak with S. Sassen of predatory formations: individual decisions and actions certainly matter, "but they are part of larger assemblages of mutually reinforcing elements, conditions and dynamics" (Expulsions, 2014). On the other side, States in turn attempt to capture these polymorphous flows, giving rise to what G. Deleuze and F. Guattari have called State war machines, which "take war as their object, and form a line of destruction extendable to the limits of the universe" (A Thousand Plateaus, 1980).

16. Confronted with these realities, international institutions are unable to give force to the law of which they are the depositories. As in the case of the ICJ's judgments concerning Israel, they can only observe their powerlessness to compel established powers, whether they be States protected by their military might[6], or transnational corporations that flout borders and rules and surpass most of the world's States in power.

17. The genocide of the Palestinian people in Gaza signals the fate of all living beings confronted with the "progress" of capital, which its servants believe and desire to be the ultimate sovereign. At the crossroads of other fetishisms (that of the nation, that of religion, that of technology), effectual death materializes the abstraction of value: it consecrates the supremacy of capital over all other forms of social relations (this is, strictly speaking, the fetishism of value). With no conceivable opposition to stop it, capitalist necropolitics is this power that exists only by putting its destructive capacity to the test, by casting the concrete shadow of a supreme predation.

[1] Y. Abraham, "'Order from Amazon': How tech giants are storing mass data for Israel's war", https://www.972mag.com/cloud-israeli-army-gaza-amazon-google-microsoft/.

[2] https://law4palestine.org/law-for-palestine-releases-database-with-500-instances-of-israeli-incitement-to-genocide-continuously-updated/

[3] This is the methodology of an article published by R. Khatib, M. McKee and S. Yusufin in The Lancet on July 10, 2024, Cf. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext.

[4] N. M. C. Machado, La limite écologique du capitalisme, in Jaggernaut n°4, 2022, pp. 26-27.

[5] Published in 2006, https://shs.cairn.info/revue-raisons-politiques-2006-1-page-29.

[6] It seems pointless to hope for any change in this respect until the veto power at the United Nations held by the USA, China, Russia, France and the UK has been abolished.

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