#predictive processing
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The Predictive Self: Insights from Active Inference and the Free Energy Principle
The concepts of Active Inference and the Free Energy Principle have emerged as pivotal frameworks in understanding the intricacies of agency, whether in biological systems or artificial intelligence. These theories, rooted in the intersection of neuroscience, philosophy, and AI, offer a profound lens through which to examine the fundamental nature of interaction between agents and their environments.
At its core, Active Inference posits that agents engage with their environment in a manner that minimizes surprise, thereby reducing entropy. This process is underpinned by the Free Energy Principle, which suggests that agents strive to optimize the fit between their internal models of the world and the external reality. This optimization is achieved by minimizing the free energy, a proxy for the difference between the agent's predictions and the actual sensory input. The Free Energy Principle thus provides a unifying framework for understanding perception, action, and learning across various scales and systems.
The discussion around Active Inference inevitably touches upon the concepts of agency and free will. By positioning agents as entities that resist entropy, the theory subtly aligns with compatibilist views, where free will is seen as compatible with determinism. This perspective challenges traditional dichotomies, encouraging a more nuanced understanding of agency that transcends the biological-artificial divide. Furthermore, the emphasis on minimizing surprise underscores the predictive nature of the mind, echoing theories that suggest our understanding of the world is fundamentally confabulatory and based on predictive models.
The distinction between observational systems, like ChatGPT, and truly interactive, adaptive systems based on Active Inference, raises crucial questions about machine understanding and human uniqueness. If human beliefs, motives, and desires are, to some extent, confabulatory, what does this imply for our understanding of consciousness and the development of artificial intelligence? The ethical implications are profound, highlighting the need for careful consideration in the creation of autonomous, adaptive AI systems that may increasingly mirror human-like agency.
The interdisciplinary nature of Active Inference suggests a wide array of applications. Clinically, it may inform new approaches to understanding and treating neurological or psychiatric conditions by focusing on the internal models and predictive processes underlying patient experiences. In the realm of AI and robotics, embracing Active Inference could lead to the development of more interactive, adaptive systems that learn and evolve in a more human-like manner.
Thomas Parr: Active Inference (Machine Learning Street Talk, May 2024)
youtube
Thursday, November 21, 2024
#active inference#free energy principle#agency#artificial intelligence#neuroscience#philosophy#cognitive science#predictive processing#machine learning#human consciousness#interview#ai assisted writing#machine art#Youtube
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hal should become a real boy and also a rabbit (prototyped with the piece of the bunny in lil seb) and also a sylph of mind send tweet
#hal strider#hes pretty obviously set up for an arc where his happiness is becoming discrete from dirk and also Real and Alive#this also brings a better resolution to the bunny story than 'one of them explodes in the sun and the other just drops out of the story'#last we see it is with caliborn during his Masterpiece so i ask you where did the bunny go???#but also the alpha kids are involved in alice in wonderland symbolism#jane = alice | dirk = queen of hearts | jake = mad hatter | roxy = cheshire cat#hal is the white rabbit and directly associated with rabbits via lil seb#also his main difference to dirk is his supercomputer processing which he uses most prominently to predict outcomes (MIND!)#when he's begging for his life he invokes logic morality and ethics (MIND!)#and he clearly struggles with his own identity and desires (MIND!)#and between him and dirk hal is actually the master manipulator (MIND!)#dirk is needy and actually pretty straightforward in his 'manipulations' hes just solipsistic (HEART!)#and hal insisting over and over hes doing things for dirk's sake and dirk's own good is so enable-y and fussy (SYLPH!)#and he would be the hard counter to the condy's mind control which vriska shouldn't be able to do#(since if aranea could take care of jane/jade by putting them to sleep she would - but she didn't#and she's stronger than vriska in psionics)#also the meowrails should break up (its own essay) and nepeta <> hal and equius <> dirk#sorry to meowrails fans pls dont send death threats im doing this for their own good#So Yeah
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Writing Apollo-as-a-young-deity is fun because sometimes it involves completely making shit up based on the loose outline of a story told through old poems, prayers and plays and other times it involves researching the totally legit and well documented ancient art of studying sheep livers to make sure your statesmen don't accidentally piss off Jupiter.
In completely unrelated news, if anyone has any recommendations for books about bird augury, that'd be wonderful.
#ginger rambles#ginger chats about greek myths#apollo#part of why the next part of manent is taking so long is because traditional greek divination is an incredibly involved process#with many sub-arts and studies that all have their own variations developments and places in terms of usage and context#Apollo's sons especially the ones who were skilled seers often had their specific specialty of divination stated/which divination skills#Papapollo passed on to them#Idmon was great with entrail divination apparently#and Iamus was taught bird augury - specifically how to listen to their calls and predict the future from their flight patterns#Calchas the diviner in the Iliad? He was also a bird diviner#Really interesting stuff that's severely underutilised when it comes to portraying stories dealing with prophecy and Apollo#They were skills to be mastered y'all not magic#Anyway save me George Sarton wah wah wah#I absolutely should be sleeping LMFAO
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"The making of ST5 documentary" oh so you mean Finn, Noah, Winona, David, Charlie, Shawn Levy, and the Duffer brothers' commentary on Byler, how long they've known about it, how they used acting and direction to create the slowburn relationship, and the cultural impact they believe it will have
#why am i almost#just as excited for this#as i am for s5 itself#lmao#we are going to get so many good quotes#and so much new info#and stuff we never knew about#probs the duffers literally explaining#their thought process behind the whole thing#and just a deep dive on#how it all came to be#byler#mike wheeler#will byers#mike wheeler is a boykisser#mike wheeler is in love with will byers#mike wheeler is not straight#byler is endgame#mike wheeler is gay#byler brainrot#byler is canon#st5#st5 speculation#stranger things#st5 predictions#stranger things 5
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My pitch for a High School musical sequel
Sharpay's musical theater career never went anywhere, so now she lives vicariously through her daughter. She terrorizes the East High drama department because she demands her daughter get all the lead roles, and she comes in and micromanages everything, etc.
Sharpay Junior is our sympathetic main character who wants to escape from her mom's control. She likes musical theater, but she's beginning to think that, gasp, she might have other interests! (Shocking, I know).
Gabriella is the school's science teacher, and she serves as a kind of mentor for Little Sharpay, teaching her that it's okay to like music and still do other things.
Troy's the basketball coach, of course, continuing the family tradition of men who cling to their high school glory days.
Maybe Troy and Gabriella's son could be the romantic interest? Little Sharpay has a connection with him, but of course Sharpay doesn't want her daughter involved with the family that stole her lead roles out from under her, and she doesn't want this boy distracting her darling from her theatrical career.
Of course, the process of deciding not to be in the musical requires Little Sharpay to take part in several heartfelt and elaborately-choreographed school-wide musical numbers.
#high school musical#i went by my sister's and she had it on#i also learned my soon-to-be brother-in-law has the songs memorized#like he was full-on singing the lyrics to a song none of us girls knew#(he has sisters it makes sense but also it's hilarious)#it's such a delightfully stupid movie#and sharpay has such a sad life to care that deeply about high school drama club#she would make an excellent karen#and the process of writing these tags led to the entire predictable next-gen pitch above
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ohohohohohoho you know how I used the "it's all coming together" meme a while back? YEAH.
#I've been planning this one for TWENTY THREE CHAPTERS#cannot stress how much has gone into this upcoming chapter#probably predictable with the groundwork i've laid#but OH MAN it's coming together we love a call back or five#am i hyping it up too much?#most certaintly but I am excited so you all must be too#i dont make the rules here except I do#starlight express#the writing process#stex london 2024#joule the dynamite truck#volta the freezer truck#wrench the repair truck#electra the electric engine#killerwatt the security truck
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if we assume that each of the three pillars comes exactly three times for a total of nine times, and we know that the 7th time it was the 40-year guardian, and if we assume that was her final visit and the last two visits will be split between the 30-year guardian and the 8-year guardian, we can calculate how long ago the miharu family made that deal: (40x3)+(30x2)+(8x2)=196 years. 196 years ago it was 1828, but i think this is supposed to be set in the 1980s or 90s, so call it the late 1700s. that's the kind of thing matoba as the head of the matoba clan has to concern himself with - deals with youkai made by people 200 years ago from families that don't even exist anymore. it's an interesting contrast to the thing he says to natsume at the end of this arc, about the 9th visit, which is 30 years away, being someone else's problem. he's embroiled in the past but doesn't even think he'll get to have a future.
#however i don't think we can assume either 1) that each of the 3 pillars comes exactly 3 times#or 2) that the 7th visit was the 40-year guardian's final visit#based on the end of the arc when natsume asks who will come for the final visit and specifically asks if it will be#the 40-year guardian again. and matoba is just like idk not my problem#if they each come 3x then he should be able to predict which it will be for the 9th visit by process of elimination#(unless the miharu records are missing or something)#and if the 40-year guardian has already done all her tours then matoba should at least be able to say it won't be her. and he doesn't#but i still think 196 is a reasonable ballpark just because we know there have been 7 out of 9 visits#and they're splitting it between them in some way even if not perfectly equally#natsume's book of friends#natsume yuujinchou#matoba seiji#natsuyuu meta#miharu loquats arc#my posts#i think the only assumption we can safely make is that it's never the same guardian two times in a row#i guess the lower bound would be if the 8-year guardian and the 30-year guardian took turns for the first 6 visits#that would be (8x3)+(30x3)+40=154 years#and the upper bound would be if the 40-year guardian started and then switched off with the 30-year guardian up to visit 7#that would be (40x4)+(30x3)=250 years#both of which seem highly unlikely. so the reality has to be between those two extremes and 196 seems pretty reasonable#and in any case even if it was only 154 years ago...that's still a really long time ago
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You know that old joke about "you don't have to run faster than the bear, you just have to run faster than the other guy"? Was just thinking about how that's not necessarily true.
Because it depends on why the bear is chasing you.
If the bear is chasing you because it's hunting for food (which seems unlikely, unless it's a polar bear?) then yes, it'll stop after the first target it pulls down, because there's no point in the bear continuing to expend energy once it's got what it wants.
But if the bear is chasing you for some other reason -- say, you pissed it off by threatening its babies, or its territory -- then it will not stop with the first guy. It will continue coming until all of the threats are fled or dead. In which case, you do in fact still need to be able to run faster than the bear.
Not to overthink a metaphor, but I feel like there's a lesson here in how picking the callous path isn't necessarily any more guaranteed of success than choosing to keep faith. Now you have a bear mauling you and you're a dick. Maybe you should have stuck around to help the other guy.
#I just feel like there's this persistent narrative#that you can EITHER choose to Do The Right Thing and suffer loss for it#OR choose to screw over your fellow man and reap success from it#but like just reading the newspaper or looking at historical records#there are also plenty of cases of people who tried to screw over other people#and got bitten in the ass in a big way for it#ultimately way more self-destructive than simply not doing the dickish thing in the first place#kind of seems like you simply can't predict the outcome in all cases#you can't choose to simply cheat your way to good outcomes by sacrificing your fellow man#the only part of the process you CAN control is your own actions#so why not make an effort to make them good actions?
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when you think about it, reghabi's phrasing in 2x03 was very specific and we didn't get many details at all. "I can sew together a version of you that loves her with a version of you that can--" ?? that doesn't really sound like it means "all your memories are merged and severance is completely over." i feel like reghabi would have phrased it differently if that were the case.
ive also been thinking about how petey was apparently reintegrated for an entire work week before he disappeared. he was able to work in there fully integrated for more than like, an hour without raising any suspicion? he wasn't acting strange at all? the only thing mark s ever said about peteys behaviour before he disappeared was that he was coughing.
what if reintegration doesn't mean undoing severance, what if it just means copying files?? what if reghabi was going to say something like "i can sew together a version of you that loves her with a version of you that can remember your innie" ?? what if mark scout gets all of mark s's memories up until this point, thus allowing him to remember all the time he spent with ms casey, but he's still severed and mark s's experience is unchanged??? (<- desperate to cling to the belief that mark s is not going to disappear already)
#i wrote this before ep 4 came out and im so happy bc my theory was NOT disproven in this ep#i think mark in ep 4 is 100% mark s. i think he'll start getting more memory bleeds but isnt reintegrated#my prediction is ep 5 will show us mark scout processing new memories & then being heartbroken that he still cant actually talk to gemma#severance#severance spoilers#severance season 2#severance 2x04#severance theories#mark scout#mark s
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Kinda spoilers but wow Shirahama really had the evil old man witch wear the Evil Witch Hat and have him look directly in the camera and go "Are you *offended* by this symbol for Evil Witches? Well it's not like I'm one of the Evil Witches, I just happen to be wearing this hat. I only wore it because I had to keep the blood out of my eyes when I exploded a man against his will with evil witchcraft,"
I've met that exact guy in real life about a thousand times and also seen that guy on TV a couple million times.
#witch hat atelier#wha spoilers#i'm still processing that panel cause wow#i can't even say 'omg she predicted this specific event!' cause that scenario has played out for the past decade
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y'all stop saying fyodor has never looked so sincerely angry before. he has.
I know this because, and this is not an exaggeration, the vast majority of my manga revisits are to enjoy his expressions of anger, disdain, and malcontent. i shit you not, several of my bsd meta posts wholly unrelated to fyodor were written because I happened to notice something else while flipping through to imbibe fedya's hissy fits. I don't reread the manga when I do this, just those scenes, unless something else catches my attention.
anyway, stop disrespecting my beloved pastime.
#bsd#bungou stray dogs#bsd fyodor#most people are remarkably bad at reading expressions#not me though#this isnt a bit i fixated on how emotions are nonverbally communicated so that i could lie better and to develop a pleading face#for most of elementary school i studied people's faces and workshopped my own by getting feedback from others and testing them in the field#then in 8th grade my gifted program teacher made us take an assessment on how well we could read faces#to debunk body language expertise#and demonstrate the fact that most people think they can read faces but most of us cant#emphasizing why trials and presumptions based on assumptions that we can are harmful#everyone predictably failed real hard#except for me. i made an 80%#my teacher made me take it again and explain to her my process.#then she asked where i learned it and i explained to her that i never got stickers at naptime in kindergarten because i never slept#so i began obsessively refining my fake sleep#it took months but i figured out how to coordinate all of the tells and it worked i started getting stickers#so then i started to practice other states of mind#and she marked me an outlier and removed me from the data 😭#anyway. all im saying is. i love fedya's face.
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"Pick any game NPC and make content about why you appreciate them, what you find useful or interesting about them, and how they can help players progress their Wizards or Pirates."
I realized I haven't made any pencil drawings for any of the objectives yet, so here's my first one!
Deacon is a special NPC to me because he is the very first Armada member you meet in the Tutorial, introducing you to who the game's enemies are and making it clear from the get-go that he and the rest of his cause are a threat to our Pirate. You encounter him a couple more times in the story and become pretty familiar with him.
Not to mention you have to escape his clutches to get to Skull Island. I love replying the tutorial each time I make a new pirate so I can get to see him again!
#pirate101#p101#pirate101 deacon#pirate101 extra credits#Pirate101ExtraCredits#pirate101 armada#i confess this only took a couple of hours. deacon doesn't have a lot of detail on him from the chest up#and yeah it might've been predictable i would've done kane but deacon does pretty much start up the story for p101#in the process of redoing the elite in pencil
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Cipher (4/7)
Fourth instalment in our series of 7 Matt/Mello/Near drabbles written for @dnrarepairweek! :3 Prompt: secrets.
Matt loves Mello and misses Near.
Rarepair: Matt/Near Other tags: Matt/Mello, The Kira Case
[read on AO3 or below] [series on AO3]
Matt has slept in Mello’s bed for weeks. He likes it there, always has, with the smell of chocolate and conditioner and Mello’s skin. The only difference now is he’s also missing soft white curls.
Near will be fine! He’s not on his own; Mello was. He isn’t drawn to danger like metal filings to a magnet; Mello is.
Matt wishes he could send something, anything… a cipher on a postcard might do the trick? Near will figure it out, no matter how complex.
Mello stirs and Matt pulls him close, drowns his doubts in marred skin and blonde hair.
#death note#death note fic#dnrarepairweek25#mattnear#natebit#mattmellonear#nearlymellodramattic#saltposting#saltwriting#series: MMN drabbles#We've hit the halfway point!!#As predicted last night we had such a busy day today I have like. Zero spoon left. So I'm posting this then vaguely sniffing empire#and then going to bed and hopefully tomorrow will be nicer on our brain & processing generally!!!!#(And allow us to catch up on everyone else's fiiiics I've been so grumpy about this today. Why can't we have like unlimited braincell.#Design flaw I think -_-")
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Hey!! So turns out a video I made between a certain “well beloved but highly sensitive/emotionally reactive T.V” and an “orange haired inkling-turned-human” has managed to sweep my YouTube channel and accumulate 100k VIEWS!! THAT’S A LOT OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY?? My most widely viewed video EVER to exist in this moment in time?? AAAAA?? Not even mentioning the various comments and staggering increase in subs! It’s so much more then what I expected or even prepared for—might even be the most impactful thing to happen for me this year <3
…aside from graduating high school + the social connections I’ve been fortunate to make lol
BUT THE POINT IS I’d been closely monitoring the YouTube growth through the entirety of October. It’s make me smile like a dork, gawk in astonishment, dance frantically in my room from the energy boosts, and grow courage to stop being so selective/self-conscious with what I wish to share with the world! It’s kept my ambitions going!
I needed to find some way to celebrate the occasion and express my thanks—because I can’t NOT acknowledge this milestone jksjskp. Typically I try to avoid getting tunnel visioned focusing on the metrics/numbers. Mr. Puzzles had already demonstrated how much those things can mess with the minds of creatives. Caring too much about chasing views or placing your artistic value in attention seeking gets damaging. But at same time…it’s hard to deny the sense of pride the 100k achievement has filled me with. I understand that reaching 100k views doesn’t immediately make me any “better” or “worse” then I was before. I’m still just me! It only helps me feel seen by others—and that’s all I really needed. To hear some nice words & receive reminders that my ideas are cared about. So thank you SMG4 fandom for that, seriously thank you.
Please accept this Mr. Puzzle drawing as a way of sharing the happiness around. He’s so entertaining. Love him for simply existing. So glad we can all collectively be super attached to him (and the rest of the SMG4 cast of course). Can’t wait to see more incredible artworks from the fandom :)

Just incase anyone is confused by my vague description over which “animated video” I’m referring to here—hopefully this photo will help clarify lol. It’s this one!! Sorry about not outright stating the title at the start, I got carried away with writing!!
I’ve been in an odd place mentally when thinking about it. Wondering to myself if any of the attention is deserved considering it’s not even fully colored and could be dismissed as “low effort” content (despite taking several days making it). It’s easy to get into a trap of comparing yourself to others and questioning how much of the videos success is based on your skills, sheer algorithm luck, or only because you used popular characters and catered to a specific fandom. And then judging yourself by looking at other peoples videos. I’ve seen several artists post higher quality works then my own but it somehow gets less views. So why did mine succeed when others (who should have gotten just as much attention if not more) didn’t? Sometimes you feel like you’ve unfairly robbed them of that chance to be seen. However I’ve realized that I can’t ever expect views to be consistent—and comparing is pointless. So why worry about it or feel inadequate? I mean it’s pretty common for funny cat videos to go viral, so who am I to question the system lol. “Popular” YouTube videos can range from a passion project which took 7+ artists…to a clip of Toad singing Chandelier or a nonsensical Vine sketch. Anything can happen when it’s the internet! And just-so-happened my video was chosen. I should stay glad about that and get rid of all the overanalyzing. So that’s what I’ve chosen to do :)
#OKAY SO SO SO actually started doodling this once the video was around 98k this morning#it wasn’t even meant to be art specifically designed to celebrate the milestone at first#I just wanted to draw the funky fella who makes me laugh#but as you can see that changed up fast jksjksp#I was under the impression that my video wouldn’t reach near 100k until December UH?? WHAT HAPPENED MY PREDICTION THWARTED??#seems I’ve severally underestimated how long the traction would continue for geez wow uh#people sure do enjoy comedy gotta love ‘em laughs and giggles#I CAN’T BELIEVE WE REACHED IT THO. THAT’S INSANE TO ME—ALL THE SUPPORT AND COMMENTS AND SUBS#thank you SMG4 fandom I would’ve never fathomed the algorithm to carry it so far like this#you wanna know the real kicker?#things would have gone so differently for the channel if I didn’t wrestle with my anxiety & post there#because there was a point during that day where I fullheartedly figured it would cause me to loose subs#I was kinda terrified ngl#this goes to show that you should never hold yourself back from sharing different aspects of your interests#you don’t need to confine yourself to just one thing#or to strive only to make the most high quality videos ever (I put that pressure on myself a bit too much nowadays)#sometimes it’s the simple ideas that manage to charm people#and those who see the effort will stick around to support you. You just need to trust yourself during the process and take that chance :)#EWWWW MUSHY GUSHY SENTIMENTALITY CLOGGING UP THE ATTENTION HERE#whatever happened to keeping the focus on ✨the star✨ who made it all possible to begin with huuuu??#show a bit more gratitude to the charming TV who boosted the viewership in the first place…don’t be so self absorbed with morals lonesome 😒#what is this some sort of My Little Pony episode oh pleaseeeeee 🙄#<- all of that was a simulation of Puzzles interjecting and nagging a bit lol. I’d imagine he’s tried of my nonstop nonsense#….yea the Puzzle brainrot is reaching maximum severities. So there’s high chance I’ll be animating him more down the line :3#stick around to find out!!#hplonesome art
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What kind of questions are good to ask your rabbi during the first meeting? I know it's good to ask questions but I can't really think of any other than what will the process be like etc., and I want to plan ahead
I didn't ask too many questions during the first meeting, but my rabbi and I got to know each other as people. He talked a bit about his history as a rabbi, some things about his practices, and then I talked about what led me to judaism and a bit of how I've integrated judaism into my life at that point.
I do think the most important question you can ask at this time is for them to outline what their expectations would be of you if you both decide to go forward. So asking what coursework there might be (my rabbi mostly gives me optional readings because I'm already in a course), how they teach, what they most often teach, and perhaps even what steps they would encourage you to take while you're converting are all good questions.
I would stray away from political questions or complex questions only when you and your potential rabbi are first meeting. You will likely have many more meetings where you can address certain things! My rabbi and I have met about three or four times, and it's pretty recent that I talked about (am/eretz) yisrael with him and how many complex and deep feelings I have about it (very cathartic and comforting, I will say). Unless it's a make-or-break for you, you can probably delay those topics for the near future.
I honestly think the first meeting is more than just discussing "practical" topics like how you'll be converting and what the process is like and asking questions. It's also to get to know each other as people. Not every rabbi will fit into your conversion in a fruitful way - you're also seeing if the rabbi will be a good fit for your goals in judaism and how you want to exist as a jew in the future.
I don't want to say "have fun and be yourself," but I think you should try to do that in part! There will probably be many places where you'll want to ask questions, and I can't anticipate that. I personally didn't ask questions from my rabbi because I could tell we were a good match, and sometimes, it's like that! But don't be afraid of the rabbi - they're a person, they're not infallible, and so many rabbis absolutely love to talk to students! I am fully confident that you wouldn't be an exception to that
#ask#jumblr#jew by choice#jewish conversion#personal thoughts tag#convert FAQs#long post#i'm so bad about giving guidelines about specific questions#mostly because there just... can't ve a script when it comes to asking things#the moments where you'll go 'i have a question!' can't be predicted and i don't want that to blind side you if that makes sense#but i am more than happy to give a general idea about what the process could look like!#and especially because i didn't feel the need to ask my rabbi all too many questions myself... i'm not sure what i would have asked him#had i the ability to turn back time and do that again... i don't know if i'd suddenly have questions#and that's okay if that also happens to you! you can ask questions at the meeting or ask more later! there's no set timeline
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So episode 7 huh!
YEAH. UH HUH.

#HOLY FUCK.#the scream i scrumpt when my tessa is cyn prediction happened#I HAVE SO MANY THOUGHTS. I NEED TO PROCESS THIS#kitsch answers#anon submission
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