#capital partners

[chronographes]

Breitling donnera-t-il des ailes à Universal Genève ?

L’annonce de la reprise de la marque Universal Genève par le fonds Capital Partners, détenteur de Breitling, le 12 décembre 2023, n’en finit pas de faire réagir. Continue reading Untitled

[ansitasahu12]

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[mostlysignssomeportents]

How finfluencers destroyed the housing and lives of thousands of people

For the rest of May, my bestselling solarpunk utopian novel THE LOST CAUSE (2023) is available as a $2.99, DRM-free ebook!

The crash of 2008 imparted many lessons to those of us who were only dimly aware of finance, especially the problems of complexity as a way of disguising fraud and recklessness. That was really the first lesson of 2008: "financial engineering" is mostly a way of obscuring crime behind a screen of technical jargon.

This is a vital principle to keep in mind, because obscenely well-resourced "financial engineers" are on a tireless, perennial search for opportunities to disguise fraud as innovation. As Riley Quinn says, "Any time you hear 'fintech,' substitute 'unlicensed bank'":

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/01/usury/#tech-exceptionalism

But there's another important lesson to learn from the 2008 disaster, a lesson that's as old as the South Seas Bubble: "leverage" (that is, debt) is a force multiplier for fraud. Easy credit for financial speculation turns local scams into regional crime waves; it turns regional crime into national crises; it turns national crises into destabilizing global meltdowns.

When financial speculators have easy access to credit, they "lever up" their wagers. A speculator buys your house and uses it for collateral for a loan to buy another house, then they make a bet using that house as collateral and buy a third house, and so on. This is an obviously terrible practice and lenders who extend credit on this basis end up riddling the real economy with rot – a single default in the chain can ripple up and down it and take down a whole neighborhood, town or city. Any time you see this behavior in debt markets, you should batten your hatches for the coming collapse. Unsurprisingly, this is very common in crypto speculation, where it's obscured behind the bland, unpronounceable euphemism of "re-hypothecation":

https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/05/10/rehypothecation-may-be-common-in-traditional-finance-but-it-will-never-work-with-bitcoin/

Loose credit markets often originate with central banks. The dogma that holds that the only role the government has to play in tuning the economy is in setting interest rates at the Fed means the answer to a cooling economy is cranking down the prime rate, meaning that everyone earns less money on their savings and are therefore incentivized to go and risk their retirement playing at Wall Street's casino.

The "zero interest rate policy" shows what happens when this tactic is carried out for long enough. When the economy is built upon mountains of low-interest debt, when every business, every stick of physical plant, every car and every home is leveraged to the brim and cross-collateralized with one another, central bankers have to keep interest rates low. Raising them, even a little, could trigger waves of defaults and blow up the whole economy.

Holding interest rates at zero – or even flipping them to negative, so that your savings lose value every day you refuse to flush them into the finance casino – results in still more reckless betting, and that results in even more risk, which makes it even harder to put interest rates back up again.

This is a morally and economically complicated phenomenon. On the one hand, when the government provides risk-free bonds to investors (that is, when the Fed rate is over 0%), they're providing "universal basic income for people with money." If you have money, you can park it in T-Bills (Treasury bonds) and the US government will give you more money:

https://realprogressives.org/mmp-blog-34-responses/

On the other hand, while T-Bills exist and are foundational to the borrowing picture for speculators, ZIRP creates free debt for people with money – it allows for ever-greater, ever-deadlier forms of leverage, with ever-worsening consequences for turning off the tap. As 2008 forcibly reminded us, the vast mountains of complex derivatives and other forms of exotic debt only seems like an abstraction. In reality, these exotic financial instruments are directly tethered to real things in the real economy, and when the faery gold disappears, it takes down your home, your job, your community center, your schools, and your whole country's access to cancer medication:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/08/greek-drug-shortage-worsens

Being a billionaire automatically lowers your IQ by 30 points, as you are insulated from the consequences of your follies, lapses, prejudices and superstitions. As @pixelpusher220@dmv.community says, Elon Musk is what Howard Hughes would have turned into if he hadn't been a recluse:

https://mamot.fr/@pixelpusher220@dmv.community/112457199729198644

The same goes for financiers during periods of loose credit. Loose Fed money created an "everything bubble" that saw the prices of every asset explode, from housing to stocks, from wine to baseball cards. When every bet pays off, you win the game by betting on everything:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble

That meant that the ZIRPocene was an era in which ever-stupider people were given ever-larger sums of money to gamble with. This was the golden age of the "finfluencer" – a Tiktok dolt with a surefire way for you to get rich by making reckless bets that endanger the livelihoods, homes and wellbeing of your neighbors.

Finfluencers are dolts, but they're also dangerous. Writing for The American Prospect, the always-amazing Maureen Tkacik describes how a small clutch of passive-income-brainworm gurus created a financial weapon of mass destruction, buying swathes of apartment buildings and then destroying them, ruining the lives of their tenants, and their investors:

https://prospect.org/infrastructure/housing/2024-05-22-hell-underwater-landlord/

Tcacik's main characters are Matt Picheny, Brent Ritchie and Koteswar “Jay” Gajavelli, who ran a scheme to flip apartment buildings, primarily in Houston, America's fastest growing metro, which also boasts some of America's weakest protections for tenants. These finance bros worked through Gajavelli's company Applesway Investment Group, which levered up his investors' money with massive loans from Arbor Realty Trust, who also originated loans to many other speculators and flippers.

For investors, the scheme was a classic heads-I-win/tails-you-lose: Gajavelli paid himself a percentage of the price of every building he bought, a percentage of monthly rental income, and a percentage of the resale price. This is typical of the "syndicating" sector, which raised $111 billion on this basis:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-housing-bust-comes-for-thousands-of-small-time-investors-3934beb3

Gajavelli and co bought up whole swathes of Houston and other cities, apartment blocks both modest and luxurious, including buildings that had already been looted by previous speculators. As interest rates crept up and the payments for the adjustable-rate loans supporting these investments exploded, Gajavell's Applesway and its subsidiary LLCs started to stiff their suppliers. Garbage collection dwindled, then ceased. Water outages became common – first weekly, then daily. Community rooms and pools shuttered. Lawns grew to waist-high gardens of weeds, fouled with mounds of fossil dogshit. Crime ran rampant, including murders. Buildings filled with rats and bedbugs. Ceilings caved in. Toilets backed up. Hallways filled with raw sewage:

https://pluralistic.net/timberridge

Meanwhile, the value of these buildings was plummeting, and not just because of their terrible condition – the whole market was cooling off, in part thanks to those same interest-rate hikes. Because the loans were daisy-chained, problems with a single building threatened every building in the portfolio – and there were problems with a lot more than one building.

This ruination wasn't limited to Gajavelli's holdings. Arbor lent to multiple finfluencer grifters, providing the leverage for every Tiktok dolt to ruin a neighborhood of their choosing. Arbor's founder, the "flamboyant" Ivan Kaufman, is associated with a long list of bizarre pop-culture and financial freak incidents. These have somehow eclipsed his scandals, involving – you guessed it – buying up apartment buildings and turning them into dangerous slums. Two of his buildings in Hyattsville, MD accumulated 2,162 violations in less than three years.

Arbor graduated from owning slums to creating them, lending out money to grifters via a "crowdfunding" platform that rooked retail investors into the scam, taking advantage of Obama-era deregulation of "qualified investor" restrictions to sucker unsophisticated savers into handing over money that was funneled to dolts like Gajavelli. Arbor ran the loosest book in town, originating mortgages that wouldn't pass the (relatively lax) criteria of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This created an ever-enlarging pool of apartments run by dolts, without the benefit of federal insurance. As one short-seller's report on Arbor put it, they were the origin of an epidemic of "Slumlord Millionaires":

https://viceroyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Arbor-Slumlord-Millionaires-Jan-8-2023.pdf

The private equity grift is hard to understand from the outside, because it appears that a bunch of sober-sided, responsible institutions lose out big when PE firms default on their loans. But the story of the Slumlord Millionaires shows how such a scam could be durable over such long timescales: remember that the "syndicating" sector pays itself giant amounts of money whether it wins or loses. The consider that they finance this with investor capital from "crowdfunding" platforms that rope in naive investors. The owners of these crowdfunding platforms are conduits for the money to make the loans to make the bets – but it's not their money. Quite the contrary: they get a fee on every loan they originate, and a share of the interest payments, but they're not on the hook for loans that default. Heads they win, tails we lose.

In other words, these crooks are intermediaries – they're platforms. When you're on the customer side of the platform, it's easy to think that your misery benefits the sellers on the platform's other side. For example, it's easy to believe that as your Facebook feed becomes enshittified with ads, that advertisers are the beneficiaries of this enshittification.

But the reason you're seeing so many ads in your feed is that Facebook is also ripping off advertisers: charging them more, spending less to police ad-fraud, being sloppier with ad-targeting. If you're not paying for the product, you're the product. But if you are paying for the product? You're still the product:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/01/04/how-to-truth/#adfraud

In the same way: the private equity slumlord who raises your rent, loads up on junk fees, and lets your building disintegrate into a crime-riddled, sewage-tainted, rat-infested literal pile of garbage is absolutely fucking you over. But they're also fucking over their investors. They didn't buy the building with their own money, so they're not on the hook when it's condemned or when there's a forced sale. They got a share of the initial sale price, they get a percentage of your rental payments, so any upside they miss out on from a successful sale is just a little extra they're not getting. If they squeeze you hard enough, they can probably make up the difference.

The fact that this criminal playbook has wormed its way into every corner of the housing market makes it especially urgent and visible. Housing – shelter – is a human right, and no person can thrive without a stable home. The conversion of housing, from human right to speculative asset, has been a catastrophe:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/06/06/the-rents-too-damned-high/

Of course, that's not the only "asset class" that has been enshittified by private equity looters. They love any kind of business that you must patronize. Capitalists hate capitalism, so they love a captive audience, which is why PE took over your local nursing home and murdered your gran:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/02/23/acceptable-losses/#disposable-olds

Homes are the last asset of the middle class, and the grifter class know it, so they're coming for your house. Willie Sutton robbed banks because "that's where the money is" and We Buy Ugly Houses defrauds your parents out of their family home because that's where their money is:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/11/ugly-houses-ugly-truth/#homevestor

The plague of housing speculation isn't a US-only phenomenon. We have allies in Spain who are fighting our Wall Street landlords:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/24/no-puedo-pagar-no-pagara/#fuckin-aardvarks

Also in Berlin:

https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/16/die-miete-ist-zu-hoch/#assets-v-human-rights

The fight for decent housing is the fight for a decent world. That's why unions have joined the fight for better, de-financialized housing. When a union member spends two hours commuting every day from a black-mold-filled apartment that costs 50% of their paycheck, they suffer just as surely as if their boss cut their wage:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/12/13/i-want-a-roof-over-my-head/#and-bread-on-the-table

The solutions to our housing crises aren't all that complicated – they just run counter to the interests of speculators and the ruling class. Rent control, which neoliberal economists have long dismissed as an impossible, inevitable disaster, actually works very well:

https://pluralistic.net/2023/05/16/mortgages-are-rent-control/#housing-is-a-human-right-not-an-asset

As does public housing:

https://jacobin.com/2023/10/red-vienna-public-affordable-housing-homelessness-matthew-yglesias

There are ways to have a decent home and a decent life without being burdened with debt, and without being a pawn in someone else's highly leveraged casino bet.

If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

https://pluralistic.net/2024/05/22/koteswar-jay-gajavelli/#if-you-ever-go-to-houston

Image: Boy G/Google Maps (modified) https://pluralistic.net/timberridge

[silvermoon424]

The fact that most European companies treat their non-European employees like shit- despite the fact that Western Europeans enjoy the highest level of workers' rights in the world- just because they can get away with it in the United States or whatever is proof why regulations are needed.

European workers are only treated better than their American counterparts because there are laws protecting them, not because European corporations are so much more humanitarian than American companies. Never forget that under capitalism companies will exploit you for all you're worth and all they can legally get away with.

[canisalbus]

Is it hard not to make all your characters gay? Matteo is 👀 very good (idk if you've said his sexuality, I just assume that due to the time period, most "side" characters would be straight?)

.

[embracing-the-ineffable]

Hunting for Clues-with-a-capital-C, a meta of Good Omens metas, and GO fun!

*I'm adding to this list as I find new and interesting Clues and theories!

*This post version is dated 19 Jul 2024; the current version is pinned to my profile.

* I maxed out Tumblr's link limit! Here's the Google doc with many of the Clues, links, discontinuities, and metas I've collected from all over the fandom. There's a new section at the top called "Discontinuities and Reports from the Ineffable Detective Agency"! (Inspired by this post from @kimberleyjean!)

Below, you'll find a list of my original posts, most of which are filled with fact-finding, Clue-hunting screenshots that will probably leave you with more questions than answers! Several of these posts are also presented in partnership with the Ineffable Detective Agency:

The Appearing Sign:

The Honolulu Roast sign appears in the middle of a scene?! AND the lamp moves?!

The Bentley:

How to tell the "three" Good Omens Bentleys apart, without talking about color

Ineffable discontinuity and the Bentley's roadtrip transformation: new back doors and other changes (after it was yellow)

The open Bentley window at the end of season 2

Clocks and Time:

The Ineffable Detective Agency Presents: The Main Bookshop Clock's Hands are BACKWARDS and Other Revelations!

The ineffable discontinuity of time in ALL of Good Omens season 2?

Crowley's watch doesn't always have hands

Good Omens season 2 ending and Crowley's (probable) Time Stop

Crowley's sideburns:

Crowley’s sideburns

Crowley's sideburns aren't even consistent in the promo photos.

Extras Behaving Strangely:

Hawaiian Shirt/Pub Table Guy

Marking the Columns

The Demon in an Orange Hoodie

Gabriel's Memory Returns:

The Ineffable Detective Agency presents: Gabriel's memory

Plus, hidden audio in the memory tunnels?

More Assorted Discontinuities:

Edinburgh and the Briefcase, presented by the Ineffable Detective Agency

The disappearing textiles storefront (and Maggie's second sign)

When does Mr Arnold's shop arrive? After season 1, except Neil says it was in the 1970s

Season 1: First Wombat in Space (also, Bentley bullet hole decals)

Set Furnishings:

The circular bookshop rug CHANGES?!

The Good Omens bookshop furniture changes between s1 and s2 (but NOT after Adam reboots reality!)

The s2 Bookshop / s1 Hospital Sink

Other Speculation and Questions:

On Neil's Tumblr asks, Staying Skeptical, and Gravity Falls

Finding hope for s3 and perspective for s2 in Neil's s1 podcast with David Tennant

The BTS parking ticket translation

The S2 Opening Title Sequence: analysis

The Ineffable Detective Agency presents: the origins of the white bust in the bookshop (a really lovely theory, you should read it!)

Parallels with Nightmare in Silver (Doctor Who written by Neil) - multiple Crowleys?

Has Aziraphale been meeting with Floating Head Metatron throughout s2?

Would even vulnerable, heartbroken Crowley try to protect Aziraphale at all costs? A possible hidden transfer in the kiss.

I have questions about Nina and ESPECIALLY about Maggie...

Don't pay the guy with the blue glasses, he doesn't work here!

If you enjoyed my research, stay tuned for future posts, and take a look at my Google doc for even more Clues and metas from all over the fandom!

Some closing bits of encouragement:

A: "You just said it was the only way to prevent something terrible happening!"

G: "Really? What?!"

A: "I don't know!"

G: "Well then, I expect it will be fine. Most things are fine in the end."

Neil: "Tell him that it will all be all right in the end, and that we are not yet at the end."

Plus, for fun:

Good Omens ✨Clues and Detectives✨:

Celebrating lots of milestones, including my 1500th follower! See all the posts here!

Good Omens Day of ✨Dance✨:

Learn all about my GO "Day of Dance" and get a link to all the fandom art I shared, here!

My Fanfiction:

From the GOMM holiday exchange: Cocoa and Fairy Lights, How to Fight Your Chemistry and Lose

GOMM 2024: Orbiting a Memory, featuring a gorgeous illustration of Saraqael by @altonthebard

Fan Fiction Friday: The Universe Might Answer: Broken Moonlight

From the GO Song & Poetry Exchange: The Ineffable Dance

GOMM reverse bang 2024: Silver Screen Solace, featuring a playful book omens theater drawing by @ufofrommarss

[rogueddie]

ok but aromantic steve. he has a high sex drive, which is why he was pretty infamous for 'dating' a lot of girls in high school but fell flat as soon as he tried to go on romantic dates. he probably just feels pressured by s4 to live up to his reputation and fit into the norm. it takes a while for him to accept that aspect of himself.

it definitely helps that robin is there through it all, the love of his life. the only thing about it that upsets him is that it took him so long to realize, thinking about those years he'd wasted thinking about dates and romance, when he could have been enjoying the platonic love he has with robin. it brings him more joy than anything else ever could.

[thornescratch]

Delighted that the Caps decided to devote a highlight in the Carly1K vid to Rasmus Sandin sheepishly calling John Carlson to admit he got lost on the way to their community event together and is now headed towards Baltimore, and Carlson just laughing at him.

[autuboho]

*a couple love each other platonically*

Straight society: that’s not love.

*two friends love each other romantically*

Society: that’s not friendship.

*person who loves their family member*

Society: mhmmm… that’s affection.

*person who loves an animal more than anything*

Society: that’s affection.

*person who loves his friend more than anything*

Society: that’s affection.

*a person loves their child*

Society: that’s affection.

*a cat and a dog love each other*

Society: that’s affection.

*a person love their daughter*

Society: that’s affection.

*a couple loving each other romantically*

Society: Now THAT’S TRUE LOVE

[bunnygirllover45]

FUCKFUCKFUCK IT'S VALENTINE'S DAY IN A FEW WEEKS AND I TOTALLY FORGOT. I DON'T HAVE ANYTHING READY AND MED SCHOOL IS FUCKING MY ASS SO HARD I CAN'T EVEN THINK ABT SOMETHING THAT'S NOT THE FUCKING CEREBELLUM AND THE SPINAL CORD. HAVING 2K CHILDREN TO FEED FOR THAT DAY IS EVEN MORE STRESSFUL THAN DOING SOMETHING FOR MY PARTNER.

[plzu]

are therapists these days even equipped to handle when people say things like "i don't want to die because i'm suicidal, i want to die because it seems easier than living under capitalism where i am not privileged enough to take indefinite time off work to deal with the burn out"

[oceanicmarxist]

Just discovered what godspousing is and now I am fully resolute in my belief that you cannot be religious and communist at the same time. Also neo pagans should be institutionalized. Hitlerite babble.

[slicedblackolives]

my personal theory of why characters like james bond and indiana jones and batman and the line cook in bear are sexy is that that particular rogue archetype combines working class male attributes of physical violence and manual labour with a bourgeoise genteelness so middle class viewers don't have to deal with the cognitive dissonance of finding male labouring bodies hot but not wanting to fuck poor people

[darkacademiaarchivist]

maybe it's just because i dont have tiktok but i see more posts being annoyed at people calling Hozier cottagecore (and reducing him to only that) than people actually doing that and like... i get it but i also think it's weird to be mad at people thinking his songs fit a specific vibe? It's not all of them but there are a lot of his songs that i'd classify as "songs I'd listen to while dancing on a field" or something... I just think that you can appreciate an artist for multiple things at once without reducing them to one thing and one thing only...

[sunofaraven]

Okay, Rancher people, what about...

2049au where replicant Tango is working hard as a blade runner when he gets talked into buying a Digital Companion (DiJi) for his "mental well-being". The seller recommends the standard 'Joi' model, but there's something so hopeful in the rejected DiJi design on her screen, 'Jimmy'...

Tango starts to think that maybe he shouldn't have been so quick to dismiss the idea originally. But maybe he just has no idea what he's gotten himself into.

[embracing-the-ineffable]

Would even vulnerable, heartbroken Crowley try to protect Aziraphale at all costs? I think so. And maybe the Job verse on the matchbox is a Clue!

In light of several metas I read yesterday about how there could be more to the kiss at the end - some hidden message, or transfer of object or power, or maybe Crowley pauses time and they have a whole conversation - it seems like the quote could be referencing their kiss?

Job 41:19, "Out of his mouth go burning lamps, and sparks of fire leap out."

Perhaps Aziraphale is getting insurance from Crowley (in the form of demonic fire), just as he once provided the insurance (in the form of holy water).

Also interesting, and it could possibly be another reason to link the matchbox quote to Aziracrow:

The verses leading up to Job 41:19 are hard to ignore because it sounds as if they're describing the romance between Aziraphale (Michael Sheen) and Crowley (David Tennant). Job 41:16 – 18 reads, "One is so near to another, that no air can come between them. They are joined one to another, they stick together, [and] they cannot be sundered. By his [sneezing] a light doth shine, and his eyes are like the eyelids of the morning." In the larger context of Job, these verses are part of a prolonged speech delivered to Job by God, in which the latter is admonishing the former for being upset" [about God destroying his life for that bet with Satan]

This would be SO LIKE Crowley, to want to protect Aziraphale even when his heart is breaking.

I have lots of metas from all over the fandom, here!