#Intermediate Term Goals

[tahbhie]

Effective Ways of Creating Relatable and Realistic Conflicts

As a writer, whether you're a beginner, intermediate, or expert, you've likely heard about the importance of creating "relatable and realistic conflicts." This advice appears in almost every writing guide. Yes, it's crucial.

However, this recurring statement might seem vague. Let's break down what these terms mean. We'll discuss how to create conflicts in your style that work, and what can lead to the opposite results.

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This is a flexible guide, not a strict set of rules. Let's begin.

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First, relatability is different from realism, at least in this context.

Relatability offers an experience that people have gone through before. They can easily identify it as something that happens.

Realism, on the other hand, can be a fresh experience or something entirely fantastical. Here's the catch: it must stay true to your setting and plot. For example, in a fantasy setting, your conflict could be the protagonist's dragon falling sick on the eve of a big race.

In the real world, we have no dragons. But in your setting, your situation with this creature feels real. Now consider an instance where we have intelligent insects with no apparent reason or explanation. This is an example of an unrealistic conflict that doesn't align with its setting. It's either you adjust a few things in the settings or adjust the conflict that stems from their intelligence or is solved by it.

Now that we've established that, let's consider what to keep in mind when writing conflicts.

Conflicts can be resolved instantly or extend further. They can begin your story, occur during it, or happen after a sweet moment.

Before writing a conflict, think about:

1. The Setting:

Where is your world set? This matters a lot! You can use our real-life world but still create your own rules, as long as you make that clear. Your conflict could come off as both realistic and relatable. However, where you have a total no is when your world is the normal world we know, with no changes, and your conflicts are unrealistic and unrelated.

You have such examples in some Bollywood movies. No offense to anyone in love with these movies. This is just a case study for clarification purposes.

Think of the fight scenes. The physical conflicts often stem from a grander conflict. You'll understand where I'm coming from.

2. Duration:

How long will this conflict last in your story? Earlier, I mentioned lasting conflict and fleeting conflict. The former helps create more meaning for your plot. The latter adds excitement that drives the plot forward.

3. Solvability:

Sometimes, the resolution to your conflict can render it meaningless, even after you've nailed the creation. Resolve your conflict in agreement with your plot.

4. Interesting Premise:

Conflict ideas sometimes come naturally as you write your story. I remember when I wrote high school stories, conflicts came to me as I wrote, but this doesn't happen every time. Sometimes, I knew I needed something more exciting and less predictable.

For example, it's common for a new female student to be rivaled by the school's most popular girl. This is usually because of the love interest—the most popular guy in school. But what if they become best friends, and the love interest turns out to be the popular girl's brother?

She mistakes the protagonist's friendship with a different guy as cheating, and the feeling of betrayal turns them against each other. This twist offers a fresh take on the usual antagonizing characters. It could make your story more interesting. This time the antagonist is doing what she feels is in her brother's favour not herself.

5. Character's Involvement:

This is slightly similar to the above. The difference is that it deals directly with the characters themselves, not just the conflict they face. The actions towards the conflict give the situation meaning.

6. Aim and Goals:

What do you aim to achieve with your conflict? Do you wish to entertain, hook the readers, drive the plot forward, or introduce a new object or character? It's best to aim for two at a time. Trying to achieve all in a single conflict could lead to complications.

Which conflict have you read in a book that made you wish you wrote it?

Aiming for a powerful plot? Check out this plot progression planner that helps you plan the aspects you often overlook. You get a free gift!

If you love what I do, support my work to enable more content production.

[rigelmejo]

While I'm on the topic of beginners learning a language, common pitfalls beginners fall into, and and how to get out:

Starting a new learning resource (for beginners) for a few weeks/months, then quitting and starting a new learning resource (for beginners), getting stuck in a cycle of relearning the same material multiple times - if this is you, the solution is to STICK with 1 resource until you've completed it. (Or to stick with 1-4 resources if you are using different resources for reading, listening, speaking, writing etc.). If you find yourself jumping between apps, or resources, go ahead and keep jumping around until you find something you really like, so you can find that resource you'll stick to for months/a year. Basically, keep it simple, and stick with something.

No idea where to start or what to study first - if this is you, the solution is to pick a Structured Resource, so you can let the resource tell you what to do. Traditional classes in schools, MOOCs like Coursera, Textbooks labelled by 'level', Free Resources that have clear directions on what to do for how long. If you choose an app or an anki deck (something less structured), then make a study plan to do it a decent amount of time daily (more than 15 minutes) it until you complete it. If you struggle to judge what is useful and what's not, a Structured Resource that teaches basic grammar and 1000-3000 words, in listening and reading exercises (and optionally speaking and writing exercises/practice), is going to be the easiest thing to use.

Not putting in enough daily study time on average - if this is you, consider trying to make time for 1 hour or more of time engaging with the language daily. At least 30 minutes. 2+ hours if you're ambitious. Suggestions: consider using audio-only learning materials such as learner podcasts with other-language explanations (Glossika, Coffee Break Language, LanguagePod101/Innovative Language courses, Pimsleur, Paul Noble, audio sentence flashcards like japaneseaudiolessons.com), so you can study while doing chores, while getting ready, while commuting/traveling, while exercising, and see if you can fit in 30 minutes or more per day. Once you are no longer a beginner, it will be easier to make time for the language in your daily life, as you'll be able to engage with the language during more of your everyday hobbies. The beginning stage is the hardest, you got this.

Not seeing progress as fast as you wish - if this is you, the solution is increase your daily study time. I know, it sucks and is obvious. That's about the only way to see more progress in less days.

Losing motivation because you aren't seeing noticeable progress - if this is you, pick a short term monthly (or 3 month) goal, to be able to do something specific in the language. It could be any goal. Examples: read a Graded Reader story, finish X number of learner podcast episodes, read X chapters of a novel or comic (looking up words if needed), complete X chapters of textbook, go through X number of dialogues from class, watch a movie in the language (while looking words up as needed), watch a youtube video in the language (while looking words up as needed), read a short fanfiction in the language (while looking up words if needed), be able to speak a summary of your hobbies aloud, be able to write a diary entry about your day. These short term goals will give you something to achieve, will focus your studies on a particular thing you wish to do in the language, and will give you results you can see/measure for your efforts. These short term goals are also useful for if you like changing what you do every few months, and changing what you focus on improving - this is generally what I do, to keep interest and motivation up.

No idea if you've learned enough to move onto intermediate study resources and practice understanding the language - if this is you, a 'Grammar Guide Summary' and a 1000-3000 'Common Words List', both ideally with example sentences, will be your best friends. You can look these kinds of resources up online free, or if you have been studying with a Structured Resource then you should be able to quickly glance at that resource and see how much grammar and how many words it taught you (that information should be in the opening explanation of how to use the resource, or in the explanations and word lists of each chapter, or if it's an anki deck it will be the information on all the cards/the information on the deck's community page). Look up a "Grammar Guide Summary" and a 1000-3000 "Common Words List" and if most of the stuff on those resources looks familiar, then you're ready to start PRACTICING understanding the language, and you're ready to MOVE ON TO INTERMEDIATE RESOURCES. Congrats, you're no longer a beginner!

Not sure how to move into practicing what you are learning - if this is you, Graded Readers (containing a unique word count lower than the amount of vocabulary you've studied), Comprehensible Input Lessons (on youtube), and Learner Podcasts for Beginners to Lower Intermediate learners will be easiest for you to practice with. Also, if using a Structured Resource (like a class or textbook), any exercises it contains for practicing (writing sentences using the grammar and words taught that week, speaking the same sentences, listening to audio and answering questions about what it talked about, shadowing the audio - repeating what you hear as close to how it sounds, reading the text practice provided in the chapter/class).

Not sure how to start watching shows and reading novels - if this is you, you're either at the Upper Beginner or a Lower Intermediate stage, know a lot of basic grammar and 1000-3000 common words. My first suggestion is to go back to the previous point for practice until you feel comfortable. Once you wish to, watch stuff and read stuff made for native speakers - get yourself a good translation app (or website) for the language you're learning, and start watching stuff and reading stuff you want to. Look up any unknown words or grammar that seems key to understanding the main idea, and look up anything else you're curious about. Watch and read things you've seen before in another language, because the prior context of knowing the plot already will make it more understandable. Watch things with a lot of visual cues as to what's going on - cartoons for toddlers, cartoons for kids, action stuff, daily life stories, comics. Read stuff about topics you are already familiar with, such as news or history or science where you already know the topic and recognize some words. Congrats, you have hit the long intermediate stage!

[spiralfucker]

where should i look to learn the basic of ableton? it overwhelms me so much but there's nothing more i want to do than making music or at least trying to and I'm terrible depressed bc of that

Hi anon. I’ve been in the same position as you and I know what it feels like to have all this creative energy and emotions pent up that you can’t express in the way you’d like to. This is a long one but I’m really passionate about this so here:

Basically I learnt the basics of logic at my uni and I got lessons/mentoring from my bandmate who encouraged me to switch over to ableton (I much prefer it now).

I know it looks overwhelming at first but I promise with some practice it’s really not too bad (it’s def easier than pro tools lol) Music production is one skill that is really easy to self teach because there’s just so many free resources online. I’d really recommend finding an in depth introduction to ableton video on YouTube and kind of just following along. Start trying to learn the keyboard commands early on if you can because they’ll make your workflow so much faster in the long run.

Izotope has some really great articles that go into the basics of production techniques in really easy to understand terms. Sound on sound has some great articles too. Making a big google doc with every you learn can be a great resource to have so you can go back and reference it.

Alongside that I’d recommend trying to learn some basic music theory because I honestly think it essential to know for production (many people would disagree lol). If you haven’t already, try to get your head around the circle of fifths and the harmonic series.

As well as this, I think it’s important to understand the basics of synthesis because that terminology will keep coming up in VSTs and it’ll help to have some context of where these terms came from. Look into the basics anatomy of a subtractive synthesiser to start. From there id recommend looking into FM, additive and wavetable synthesis. This book was written in the 80s but I found it really helpful for grasping these concepts: https://archive.org/details/SynthesizerBasicsDeanFriedman600dpi_201608/page/n70/mode/1up

I’d also recommend grasping the basics of EQ and compression because it’s something you’ll probably use on every single track you ever make. Also learn what phase cancellation is because that’s an issue that come up a lot when you’re a beginner.

If you’re able to, I’d recommend making it a goal to try to a learn new thing about music or production every day. Even if that’s just something as simple as what synth was used on a song you like or what a particular mic is good for or a neat trick you do with a stock plugin, all that knowledge adds up and complements each other.

I’ve found that trying to listen to your favourite music with an analytical frame of mind and even trying to get a hold of the multitracks can be a great learning tool. Find out what kind of hardware they used, what plugins they used, what mics etc. There’s no shame in copying your favourite producers until you find your own voice.

In terms of gear, I’d recommend picking up a midi keyboard and an interface if you don’t have one already. If you’re finding you keep running into CPU issues with your computer (ableton isn’t great for this) you can try resampling your midi track and turning off the plugins then freezing the track (I wish I started doing this sooner). Otherwise you’ll just get frustrated and stuck and not want to keep working on your tracks.

If money is an issue, ableton comes with a lot of great stock instruments and effects + samples and drum racks but expensive plugins are always going on sale so maybe have a look on plugin boutique and see if anything that looks cool is within your budget.

Keep in mind that I’m saying this as someone who still considers themself a beginner/intermediate in this area and I still have a heap to learn too. Good luck and make cool stuff.

[comikas-fandom-dump]

Opinion on Obito?

Obito was my previous favourite Naruto character, actually. It was way back when I started watching Naruto and I believe I was 12-ish years old. And as 12-year-old girls do, I even made a self-insert character to befriend him 😂 So yeah, rose-tinted glasses, here I go~

Obito's character appeals to me in a similar way that Darth Vader does. A once-promising hero turned into a faceless, masked villain because everything lost its meaning since the day he lost the person he loved most. But then there are still people in this world who miss and/or love him?! And his identity becomes known to the friends and family who thought him dead all this time. The good guys didn't know they were fighting somebody so dear to them and reconciling that person with this villain standing in front of them is ripping their hearts into two.

You had a bright future in front of you, but then you threw it away, and for what? We could've been happy but now we're miserable and dying.

I guess I just kinda love this sort of stuff.

But then, of course, Obito is not a very good person. And I know that his critics will consider him a simp and claim he did it all for Rin but that's not true. It's the lessons learned from Rin's death that led him to where he is now and he's even got a point - but he's still in the wrong.

Kakashi, Rin, and he never should've been deployed to the battlefield as the child soldiers they were and their (supposed) deaths are undeniably the fault of their village and the shinobi system at large. But also, Obito's solution to this injustice was to... increase the injustice?

I like to think of it this way: You're explaining to your idiot of a landlord how a balcony without railings is insanely unsafe and how this will result in dozens of injuries and deaths in the future. Then, to demonstrate, you trip a coworker into stumbling off the balcony. Yes, you do have a point and maybe you even succeeded in demonstrating it but that doesn't justify the suffering you have inflicted in the process.

And I know that inflicting suffering itself was (probably) never Obito's goal, not even as an intermediate goal to his grand objective, but you really can't ignore the hypocrisy of being "anti-suffering" only to inflict more suffering. Even if it was all for the sake of peace, we've literally had this with like four other characters already (Butsuma, Hiruzen, Pain, Danzo, ...) and they are the reason the ninja world is what it is now. Just like hundreds of generations before him, Obito wants to impose peace upon others but only on his terms and without people's consent.

Still, I do like Obito. Very much. I want to bonk him over the head. I want to squish him. He was such an adorable little kid and he is fucked up as an adult but at least you know why. There's something appealing about a character losing themselves upon losing what once grounded them. It's a little like Sasuke except Obito didn't have a Naruto to stop him in time.

[sirenesublime]

Hi! I am currently learners French and I was wondering if you have any tips or something to help 😭😭😭

Hellooo! Learning french for me was definitely an uphill battle and I would say the type of thing that gets harder before it gets easier. Just for context on my personal situation learning French: I took french all the way through high school, studied super duper hard for the B2 exam and then managed to pass. It was through this that I was able to apply to french universities and got accepted at Sorbonne University where ALL my courses are french. Being at a french school, having to read advanced texts practically every day, and of course living in Paris - I reached C1 (and this took me about a year and a half). Please take this into consideration in terms of setting realistic goals for yourself. Here are my tips for fluency:

1.) Read A LOT!!! Through reading you’ll be able to see french grammar in context, the general structure of the language, figures of speech, and of course expand vocabulary. It goes without saying that learning a language is learning a culture - there are many faucets of francophone culture expressed through literature which provide helpful insight for non francophones. Here are my recommendations according to language level.

Beginner (A1-A2)

Le Petit Prince d’Antoine de Saint-Exupéry - this is a stable of french culture and very simple children’s novella to read. A book every French child has read.

Le Petit Nicolas - another children’s book which I think gives really good insight into french upbringing, and primary school experience. I found it to be a stark contrast from anything that I had experienced.

Any thing from Français Facile, as you reach A2 the focus will be more on basic grammar and I find those books to be quite good in terms of the hyper specificity that requires, ie if you’re learning imparfait vs passé composé there is probably a book tailor made for that.

Intermediate (B1-B2):

French translation of originally [insert your first language]. I know this may seem strange, but I think it’s a helpful in between step to see how your language translates into french, and I found generally it was easier to read weirdly?? (As someone who was reading a lot of English to French translations, guess is that since the translation is limited to English lexicon which is smaller than french, the translation itself would be a much simpler version of french lol). This can be any book, as long as it’s at your reading level in your native tongue

L’étranger d’Albert Camus

Le peintre de la vie moderne de Charles Baudelaire

Manette Salomon des frères Goncourt

Magazines, newspapers, journals!! Again great insight into francophone culture and current affairs.

At B2 level you should be able to read anything, so anything you can get your hands on, READ!

2.) Study the grammar. Get it down. All the laborious things (gender of nouns, use of subjonctif, conditional tense, COD/COI, etc, etc) — learn it and master. This cannot be skipped, you cannot cut corners in this regard. Put your head down and do it.

3.) Once you’ve gotten to A2/B1 — speak as much as possible. If there are conversation classes available, go to them. Try to find people online to practice with if IRL is not an option but it is important to practice speaking.

4.) Listen to French music, watch french language films. There’s french music in all genres and music taste is super subjective lol. I personally love the music from the 60s/70s - Jacques Brel, Serge Gains, Jane B, Francoise Hardy, Michel Legrand, Barbara (my recommendations lol). Of course if you’re not into that there’s pop, rap, Afro beats, classical, etc., etc. My favourite french films are Cléo 5 à 7, La Piscine, Le Samouraï, Les demoiselle de Rochefort, La Religieuse, La Chinoise, Plein Soleil— just a few that come to mind. Of course taste is super subjective, so just find what you like!

There are all my tips for learning french (or really any language). Hope it was helpful!!

[freeonlineworkouts]

HIIT Workout: Should I Start with HIIT or Cardio?

HIIT vs. Cardio: Which Is Right for You?

When it comes to achieving fitness goals, many people find themselves debating between High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) and steady-state cardio. Both forms of exercise offer unique benefits, but which one is better depends on your goals, fitness level, and preferences. This article will explore the differences, benefits, and when to choose each method to help you decide.

What is HIIT?

High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) involves alternating short bursts of intense exercise with brief periods of rest or low-intensity activity. For example, you might sprint for 30 seconds, then walk for 60 seconds, repeating this cycle for 20-30 minutes.

Benefits of HIIT:

Time-Efficient: HIIT delivers significant results in less time compared to steady cardio.

Boosts Metabolism: It elevates your metabolic rate for hours after a workout, promoting fat burning.

Preserves Muscle Mass: HIIT primarily targets fat while maintaining lean muscle tissue.

Improves Cardiovascular Fitness: It increases both anaerobic and aerobic endurance.

Citation: A 2011 study in the Journal of Obesity found that HIIT is highly effective in reducing abdominal fat and improving overall cardiovascular health.

What is Cardio?

Steady-state cardio involves maintaining a consistent pace and intensity for a prolonged period, such as jogging, cycling, or swimming. Sessions typically last 30-60 minutes and keep your heart rate at a moderate level.

Benefits of Cardio:

Improves Endurance: It's ideal for building long-term stamina and aerobic capacity.

Supports Heart Health: Cardio strengthens the heart, reducing the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Burns Calories: While not as intense as HIIT, cardio is effective for weight management.

Stress Relief: It can lower stress and improve mental health through steady, rhythmic activity.

Citation: According to the American Heart Association, steady-state cardio reduces the risk of heart disease and improves overall cardiovascular function.

HIIT vs. Cardio: A Comparison

Feature HIIT Cardio Time Commitment Short (15-30 minutes) Longer (30-60 minutes) Calorie Burn Higher in less time Lower but steady Fat Loss Highly effective, especially post-workout Effective over time Muscle Preservation Preserves lean muscle May lead to muscle loss with excessive duration Fitness Level Intermediate to advanced Beginner-friendly Impact on Joints High impact, can strain joints Lower impact, joint-friendly options available

Which is Better for Your Goals?

Weight Loss:

HIIT is more efficient for burning calories and boosting metabolism, especially if you’re short on time. However, combining both methods can offer sustained fat loss.

Improving Stamina:

Cardio is better suited for building endurance and improving aerobic capacity over time.

Building Muscle:

HIIT preserves and may even help build muscle due to its high-intensity nature, whereas excessive cardio might lead to muscle loss.

Overall Health:

Both forms are beneficial for cardiovascular health, but cardio is generally more accessible and less stressful for beginners or those with joint concerns.

When to Choose HIIT or Cardio

Choose HIIT if:

You’re short on time.

You want to burn fat quickly.

You’re looking to improve strength and power.

Choose Cardio if:

You prefer a low-intensity, steady workout.

You’re training for endurance events like a marathon.

You’re a beginner or have joint issues.

Can You Combine HIIT and Cardio?

Absolutely! Incorporating both methods into your routine provides variety and balances endurance with strength. For example:

Do 2-3 HIIT sessions per week for fat-burning and metabolic benefits.

Include 1-2 steady-state cardio sessions for endurance and recovery.

Conclusion

HIIT and cardio both have their place in a well-rounded fitness program. HIIT is excellent for those seeking quick, efficient results, while steady-state cardio offers endurance and long-term health benefits. Understanding your goals, fitness level, and preferences will help you choose the best approach—or combine the two for optimal results.

References:

Journal of Obesity, 2011 – Benefits of High-Intensity Interval Training.

American Heart Association – Cardiovascular benefits of steady-state cardio.

Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 2015 – Comparing calorie burn between HIIT and cardio.

[whovianshifts]

thoughts on: the gateway tapes

As some of you may know, I *thought* that I shifted yesterday. Long story short, I was so deep in the void that, when my aunt came into my room and turned the big light in, i didn't realise until a flash of light woke me.

My heart jolted awake; I felt all my limbs alive at once and I genuinely, in that moment, thought that I had shifted. Like honestly, for a shifting simulation, I think it was pretty accurate haha.

But anyway, what I found more interesting was how effective the gateway tapes were.

The other day, I came across a tumblr post with a google doc attached explaining the tapes in great detail. Whilst I had heard about and tried it last year, this explanation was action-oriented and grounded shifting as a skill i could gradually acquire on my own, rather than an abstract sort of end goal based on luck (if you scroll like one post down you will find it, i HIGHLY recommend reading).

To summarise quickly, the tapes take you through 3 main stages of (in shifttok/blr terms) the void - Focus 3, Focus 10 and Focus 10-advanced. Its basically a guided meditation with some insanely effective frequencies that allows you to access and get comfortable with powerful states of mind that can aid in many spiritual practices, including shifting, LOA, and astral projection.

So, basics aside, let me tell you all about my first time experience:

Following the google doc, I began with basic Focus 3. Due to it's long introduction, I honestly just took time to get relaxed and close my eyes when I truly felt like it - already making it a comfortable experience. As I listened to the recording, the frequencies and especially the waves eased my body into a state of sleep. The way it allowed me to gradually enter this state without much effort really solidified to me that this meditation definitely does what it says on the tin - it isnt something you have to 'trust' or 'believe in' (terms that i find admittedly too vague to sometimes grasp onto), but instead just works effectively on its own. Of course, your own concentration is required - for me, as I have been in and out of the void in previous meditations, this was sort of easy - but if you try a few times to really focus, it works quickly.

For me, what I found most difficult was trying not to bring my attention back to my body when I reached Focus 3. At points, the 'void' state was stable and I could sort of chill in it, but other times, it oscillated between the former and just a numb feeling in my body. To clarify, it was a very fuzzy sort of numbness - my physical body was sort of imperceptible, but it always snapped me out of that pure void state and into a semi lucid reality. However, the google docs I am following through at the moment sort of described Focus 3 as an intermediate state, rather than a complete detachment from the body. I also think that honestly, with practice, I can see myself getting a lot better at recognising and accepting these feelings anyway, so I am sure it will become easier.

Overall, I give this technique/meditation a 10/10 because it gives you the tools to be self-reliant and informed in your shifting journey rather than just throwing you into the deep end right away. Especially when terms like the void state, pure consciousness etc can be ambiguous and unclear, shifting can be really daunting - and lets *normalise* this feeling. Its so much better to work with this and ease yourself into shifting, rather than struggle against your instincts. In my experience, it's so difficult and counterintuitive to force yourself to feel confident; I much rather prefer taking things slow and working on my skills, developing this sense of confidence naturally. With the gateway tapes, they really do ease you in to this; Focus-10 is similar to Focus-3, but it encourages you to be more independent - and at this point, you've already started to develop a solid understanding of the void so you dont feel lost.

For me, this practice is so important; going into shifting, already finding a large part of it natural and easy, will undoubtedly make it a lot more feasible. Breaking it into small, manageable chunks like this helps with that feeling of intimidation too - I feel like yeah, I can achieve this, realistically.

Anyway, future resolutions

-STARFISH POSE: I never thought I would be saying this after the trauma of 2020 shifttok, but I finally understand why the starfish pose is so helpful. At points in this meditation, I did lose sensation in many parts of my body but my hands, clasped together, were always sort of there. Though a full starfish is soo uncomfortable, I will resolve to try and keep my limbs apart as I can tell this will help, as long as it's in a semi-comfortable manner too.

Anyway, happy shifting everyone :)

-tish

[greelys-corner]

A "Short" Summary of the Greely Expedition

Long post below the cut!

The Lady Franklin Bay Expedition of 1881 to 1884 is a story of endurance and suffering to rival any entry in the annals of polar exploration history. It was triumphant in its stated goals, both scientific and exploratory, only to meet with tragedy in its conclusion. Little known by the American public today, those who do know of this unique event in United States history often know it as the Greely Expedition, after commanding officer Lieutenant Adolphus Washington Greely. It was Greely’s name, rather than the powerful government and military institutions charged with supporting the project, that would become most strongly associated with the gruesome events that unfolded in the final days of the expedition.

The primary stated aim of the Greely Expedition was scientific advancement. Specifically, the expedition was one of two American teams to participate in the International Polar Year (IPY), a first-of-its-kind international effort helmed by Austrian explorer Karl Weyprecht to coordinate synchronous scientific observations of the arctic regions across long distances. Officially conducted from 1882 to 1883, the first IPY featured twelve research stations from 11 countries. Of these, the Lady Franklin Bay Expedition would be the furthest north of the stations, on Ellesmere Island in northern Canada opposite the western coast of Greenland.

This area of Ellesmere Island had been identified as a suitable location for a base several years prior by Henry Howgate, an intermediate officer in the newly formed US Army Signal Corps who had long held schemes for arctic colonization. From 1875 to 1881, Howgate made several attempts to launch his “colony” (in reality a small occupied site that would have been fully dependent on regular supply deliveries and support from native Greenlanders) via a mix of congressional funding and private income streams of unclear origins. As the IPY project gained traction and recruited participating nations, Howgate saw the chance to realize his polar ambitions by pivoting to a scientific angle, at least officially. At his side throughout this period was Howgate’s protege, Adolphus Greely, a young Civil War veteran in whom Howgate nurtured an enthusiasm for arctic exploration.

With the support of the Signal Corps’ leadership, Howgate and Greely slowly advanced their venture through congressional appropriations bills and Army authorizations, often securing contracts and recruiting personnel before receiving official permission. Outfitting the expedition also proved challenging: Greely struggled to hold vendors to the terms of their supply contracts and to secure a ship, and even the journey north in July 1881 was marked by insubordination among the enlistees and the dismissal and replacement of several expedition members. Perhaps ominously, the ultimate purpose of the expedition was nebulous to the public, press, and US officials, who variously and intermittently referred to the expedition as Howgate’s colony, Weyprecht’s scientific survey, a scheme to break the record for furthest north, and a search party for the USS Jeanette, which had vanished in the north arctic sea ice just a few years earlier.

On August 11, 1881, the 25-member expedition arrived at Lady Franklin Bay in the northern part of Ellesmere Island and established their base, which they named Fort Conger. A month later, having overseen the construction of the fort and waited for an open lane in the sea ice, the ship that had delivered the expedition finally steamed away from Fort Conger, giving many expedition members their last sight of the outside world.

From August 1881 to August 1883, the expedition at Fort Conger made approximately 500 daily observations on meteorology, geomagnetism, geology, astronomy, tidal patterns, and other subjects. They collected and cataloged hundreds of plant, animal, and mineral samples, and set a new record for farthest north, seizing a record the British had held for nearly 300 years. They broke the monotony of their isolated existence with birthday parties, sporting competitions, and a polar newsletter titled Arctic Moon. They suffered from snow blindness and polar hysteria while avoiding serious cases of frostbite and scurvy. Inevitably, they felt the loneliness of their isolation, and when their first arctic summer came in 1882, they took turns hiking to a good vantage point to watch for the relief ship that would bring a taste of the world back home.

But the relatively smooth trip north in 1881 had belied the challenges that would face the subsequent resupply missions. The expedition’s most vocal advocate, Henry Howgate, had resigned from the US Army shortly before being indicted on embezzlement charges and fleeing federal custody with the aid of his mistress. US Army Secretary Robert Todd Lincoln had a personal distaste for arctic exploration schemes and was slow to authorize the organization, provisioning, and staffing of the relief ships. Finally, encroaching sea ice would turn back the relief ship in 1882 and sink one of two relief ships in 1883 (necessitating rescue by it’s companion ship). Meanwhile, Lieutenant Greely’s orders in the event that a relief ship failed to reach them were clear: the party was to abandon Fort Conger and retreat south, relying on supply caches that were also spelled out in the official orders. He was unaware that neither relief mission had been successful in landing more than a few small caches of rations, far less than specified in Greely’s orders, along this coastal path.

The expedition at Fort Conger was in good health and stocked with ample rations and fresh game to survive another year in the arctic, but morale among the group was suffering badly after two years of isolation and innumerable personal and professional disputes. Multiple members had been disbarred or demoted, Greely quarreled with and nearly arrested the expedition’s physician, and on one occasion early in their stay Greely had brandished his firearm and threatened to court martial and shoot the enlisted men for failing to volunteer for laundry duty. The men bristled against the confines of the arctic climate and the commanding officer’s strict policies, and the officers’ meals were rendered silent and hostile by mutual dislike. Furthermore, there had been a few instances of stolen rations; mainly canned sweets and fruit, but nonetheless a worrying sign of how the group would fare if they remained another winter.

On August 9, 1883, Greely gave the order to evacuate Fort Conger. The men crammed what supplies and personal effects they could into four ship’s boats, leaving behind most of their food and equipment. All 23 of the expedition’s sled dogs were abandoned at the site to survive as they could on a few barrels of provisions left open and scattered on the snow. Most of the scientific equipment, preserved specimens, and geological samples were also left behind, with the exception of a few portable pieces of meteorological gear, a cumbersome gravimeter pendulum, and the many volumes of data collected over two years.

The success of the expedition’s 250-mile journey south to a predetermined meeting point at Cape Sabine was dependent on two main factors: open lanes in the ice and the presence of large supply caches that were supposed to have been deposited by the relief ships. Within days of their departure, however, the group was slowed and frequently brought to a halt by large, fast-moving ice floes that threatened to catch and crush the boats. When the expedition found areas of open sea, they also encountered fog that slowed their progress to a crawl for lack of visibility. In the final stages of their journey, the expedition resorted to traveling atop an ice floe on the prayer that it would carry them southwest. The floe could have easily carried them east to certain death in the middle of the Kane Basin, but instead they were landed approximately 20 miles south of Cape Sabine on September 23, 1883.

The party built rudimentary shelters where they landed and sent out small teams to scout for cairns marking the promised caches. By October 19, the expedition had managed to piece together the truth of their circumstances via notes from the relief parties and fragments of newspaper: the relief efforts had ended in disaster and the promised supplies amounted to only a fraction of what had been requested in Greely’s carefully specific retreat plans. Their survival would now depend on their ability to hunt game and secure the rations from a few more scant caches left by the failed relief ships and previous British expeditions. Functionally stranded, they would also have to retain hope for a third relief attempt.

Greely ordered a cairn made of the party’s scientific data and equipment, with the heavy gravimeter pendulum erected at the top to serve as a sunlit beacon. From there the expedition established a site for long-term encampment, named Camp Clay. Here they converted one of their boats into the domed roof of a shelter, which they walled with stone and sailcloth. This shelter, which measured less than 25 feet (7.6 meters) long inside thick walls, was 4 feet (1.2 meters) high at its tallest point. There was no standing room inside, and barely enough clearance nearest the walls for each man to sit upright. Here they hunkered down, shoulder to shoulder in twin rows of sleeping bags. For the next nine months, they would spend the majority of their time in this damp, dark hut, choking on fumes from a meager stove and daydreaming with increasing desperation about food. The first death from malnutrition, partially attributable to scurvy, was that of Sergeant William Cross on January 18, 1884.

The expedition members tried desperately to increase their daily ration. The hunters of the group went out every day that the weather allowed, and were granted precious additional ounces of bacon, bread, and soup to fuel their efforts. Sergeant David Brainard found a reliable site on the coast approximately half a mile from Camp Clay for harvesting sea lice, minuscule crustacean-like animals that he called shrimp. Though daily “shrimping” could yield several pounds of the creatures, most of their mass was an in-digestible chitinous shell that wrought havoc on the party’s gastrointestinal tracts. One attempt at a cache of food left by the 1875 Nares Expedition was foiled when Corporal Joseph Elison developed severe frostbite on the journey; he would lose both feet and several fingers from each hand from the resulting complications. Another attempt at the cache cost the life of expedition photographer Sergeant George Rice. Jens Edwards, a native Greenlander and one of two dog-drivers and hunters on the expedition, drowned while attempting to retrieve a seal in his kayak, the small craft most likely having been damaged from dragging over new ice.

A few successful hunts – sporadic seabirds and foxes, a few seals, and one polar bear – prolonged their lives. As these food sources dwindled, however, “food” became whatever was conceivably edible, such as hide sleeping bags, caterpillars, and stearine, a solid cooking fuel derived from animal fats and vegetable oils. Some begged Greely for permission to eat leftover tea leaves. Others resorted to ptarmigan droppings.

By June 1884, the fourteen remaining expedition members had moved to a tent on a hill near the place where they had buried their dead comrades. Here the improved sunlight provided a grain of comfort, and they were much closer to the burial grounds. In total, eighteen men of the 25-member expedition would die in the months following their arrival at Cape Sabine. At first, the expedition members had strength enough to sufficiently bury their dead, but as their rations shrank ever further the graves became shallower and shoddier, until the party had to resort to laying its dead in ridges of rock and ice crevasses. Most died of starvation, signaled hours or days in advance by delirious, incoherent rambling. One man, Private Charles Henry, was shot under court martial for repeatedly stealing food; David Brainard’s diary entry on the event suggests that his death went unmourned.

On June 22, 1884, a small advance party from two rescue ships, the Thetis and the Bear, arrived at the scene, led there by the message Greely wrote in the pendulum cairn south of Cape Sabine. They found seven survivors: Greely, Brainard, Henry Biederbick, Maurice Connell, Julius Frederick, Francis Long, and, astonishingly, Joseph Ellison, who had survived without hands or feet on the kindness and attention of his companions. Tragically, however, Ellison’s wounds would become septic in the warmth of the Thetis below deck, and he would die of infection on July 8.

The six final survivors were gradually fed to health over a slow trip south, arriving at Portsmouth Harbor, New Hampshire, on August 1. Their initial reception, both locally and in the international press, was effusive and positive; they were regarded as heroes returned from the grave, to be toasted with parades and accolades. But public opinion soon soured as details about bodies of the recovered dead emerged. Of the eleven bodies recovered from Camp Clay, six showed cut marks and missing flesh; grim suggestions of cannibalism. This evidence quickly exploded into sensational tales of expedition members murdering each other for food and half-eaten corpses strewn about the rescue camp, stories which were often attributed to firsthand sources among the rescue party. The US Army and Navy did little to quell the rumors, and the quasi-official statement on the matter was that some flesh from the dead might have been harvested to use as bait for sea lice. The expedition survivors had even less to say, collectively claiming not to have known of or witnessed any cannibalism. Rumors and sensationalized accounts about the events at Camp Clay would continue to circulate, but public excitement would ebb, and many publications were critical of the “yellow journalism” sensationalism that was common for the era. Others in the press defended the practice of survival cannibalism as a necessary evil, for which the survivors should not be persecuted.

Though data collected during the Lady Franklin Bay Expedition’s time at Fort Conger would not be fully appreciated in its time, today it forms a small part of the large body of evidence in support of man-made climate change. The expedition also yielded its own insights, alongside other polar disasters such as Ernest Shackleton’s 1914 Endurance voyage, into the psychology of isolation and effective ways that remote research stations could provide enrichment and support group morale. Lastly, the ambiguous beginning and ignominious end of the Greely Expedition gave the United States Army a strong aversion to future expeditions; a silver lining in one of the most striking tragedies in the history of polar exploration.

References:

Guttridge, Leonard F. Ghosts of Cape Sabine: The Harrowing True Story of the Greely Expedition. Berkley Books, 2000.

Levy, Buddy. Labyrinth of Ice: The Triumphant and Tragic Greely Polar Expedition. St. Martin’s Griffin, 2019.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The First International Polar Year – History. n.d. retrieved from: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/ipy-1/History.htm

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). The Greely Expedition – Timeline. n.d. retrieved from: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/greely-expedition/

Reck, Stephen N. “The Greely Sensation”: Arctic Exploration and the Press. 2018. Retrieved from: https://scholarworks.uvm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1259&context=hcoltheses

Virtual Museum of Canada. Katers Pendulum. n.d. retrieved from: https://fortconger.org/page/jeu-game/1

Wikipedia. The First International Polar Year. Last edited January 1, 2025. retrieved from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Polar_Year

[etz-ashashiyot]

Making a new post so as not to derail the previous reblogged post, but in that same spirit I am looking to connect with Palestinians who are interested in cross-community conversations and collaborative peace work. My outlook is mostly in line with this approach and this method of talking about things, but since I am based in the US and not Israel my focus would be on what we can do in the diaspora to help put pressure on the third parties and the international community to stop using Israel and Palestine as proxies and start doing real humanitarian work. I am very interested in helping to advocate for pragmatic steps that will actually make progress and save lives in the short-term while working towards a longer-term peaceful coexistence goal. It seems too many people aren't willing to listen but I think it's absolutely critical that these intermediate steps especially are led by the people who are directly affected.

If you are interested in connecting and share my humanist and pragmatist views that both peoples deserve safety, freedom, dignity, and self-determination in this land and no maximalist position will actually achieve that but coexistence will? Please reach out!

[compneuropapers]

Interesting Papers for Week 47, 2024

The neural basis of swap errors in working memory. Alleman, M., Panichello, M., Buschman, T. J., & Johnston, W. J. (2024). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(33), e2401032121.

Brain region–specific action of ketamine as a rapid antidepressant. Chen, M., Ma, S., Liu, H., Dong, Y., Tang, J., Ni, Z., … Hu, H. (2024). Science, 385(6709).

Predictive sequence learning in the hippocampal formation. Chen, Y., Zhang, H., Cameron, M., & Sejnowski, T. (2024). Neuron, 112(15), 2645-2658.e4.

A neural circuit architecture for rapid learning in goal-directed navigation. Dan, C., Hulse, B. K., Kappagantula, R., Jayaraman, V., & Hermundstad, A. M. (2024). Neuron, 112(15), 2581-2599.e23.

The Consolidation of Newly Learned Movements Depends upon the Somatosensory Cortex in Humans. Ebrahimi, S., van der Voort, B., & Ostry, D. J. (2024). Journal of Neuroscience, 44(32), e0629242024.

The effect of noninstrumental information on reward learning. Embrey, J. R., Li, A. X., Liew, S. X., & Newell, B. R. (2024). Memory & Cognition, 52(5), 1210–1227.

Closed-loop microstimulations of the orbitofrontal cortex during real-life gaze interaction enhance dynamic social attention. Fan, S., Dal Monte, O., Nair, A. R., Fagan, N. A., & Chang, S. W. C. (2024). Neuron, 112(15), 2631-2644.e6.

Attentional selection and communication through coherence: Scope and limitations. Greenwood, P. E., & Ward, L. M. (2024). PLOS Computational Biology, 20(8), e1011431.

Complexity of mental geometry for 3D pose perception. Guo, C., Maruya, A., & Zaidi, Q. (2024). Vision Research, 222, 108438.

Dynamic assemblies of parvalbumin interneurons in brain oscillations. Huang, Y.-C., Chen, H.-C., Lin, Y.-T., Lin, S.-T., Zheng, Q., Abdelfattah, A. S., … Chen, T.-W. (2024). Neuron, 112(15), 2600-2613.e5.

Selective reactivation of value- and place-dependent information during sharp-wave ripples in the intermediate and dorsal hippocampus. Jin, S.-W., Ha, H.-S., & Lee, I. (2024). Science Advances, 10(32).

Cell-class-specific electric field entrainment of neural activity. Lee, S. Y., Kozalakis, K., Baftizadeh, F., Campagnola, L., Jarsky, T., Koch, C., & Anastassiou, C. A. (2024). Neuron, 112(15), 2614-2630.e5.

The critical dynamics of hippocampal seizures. Lepeu, G., van Maren, E., Slabeva, K., Friedrichs-Maeder, C., Fuchs, M., Z’Graggen, W. J., … Baud, M. O. (2024). Nature Communications, 15, 6945.

The cortical amygdala consolidates a socially transmitted long-term memory. Liu, Z., Sun, W., Ng, Y. H., Dong, H., Quake, S. R., & Südhof, T. C. (2024). Nature, 632(8024), 366–374.

Signatures of Bayesian inference emerge from energy-efficient synapses. Malkin, J., O’Donnell, C., Houghton, C. J., & Aitchison, L. (2024). eLife, 12, e92595.3.

Neurodynamical Computing at the Information Boundaries of Intelligent Systems. Monaco, J. D., & Hwang, G. M. (2024). Cognitive Computation, 16(5), 1–13.

A general model unifying the adaptive, transient and sustained properties of ON and OFF auditory neural responses. Rançon, U., Masquelier, T., & Cottereau, B. R. (2024). PLOS Computational Biology, 20(8), e1012288.

The right posterior parietal cortex mediates spatial reorienting of attentional choice bias. Sengupta, A., Banerjee, S., Ganesh, S., Grover, S., & Sridharan, D. (2024). Nature Communications, 15, 6938.

Upper bounds for integrated information. Zaeemzadeh, A., & Tononi, G. (2024). PLOS Computational Biology, 20(8), e1012323.

Integration of history information Drives Serial Dependence and Stabilizes Working Memory Representations. Zhang, Z., & Lewis-Peacock, J. A. (2024). Journal of Neuroscience, 44(32), e2399232024.

[oficialceo]

Business Heads

11 powerful strategies for achieving your set goal

1. Conduct written reflections. A goal that is not on paper does not exist. 

2. Define the goal specifically by answering the questions: what, where, when, and how? 

3. Limit the goal in terms of time: a goal without time constraints is just a dream. 

4. Consider who, besides yourself, will benefit from achieving your goal? 

5. Formulate the goal in an affirmative manner, using the present tense. 

6. Break down the goal into sub-goals, create a detailed plan for achieving the goal. 

7. Take responsibility for your actions on the path to the goal. 

8. Define intermediate results for achieving the goal. 

9. Think about the goal, not the means of achieving it. Determine the final destination and move towards it. 

10. Create a vision of the future where you have achieved the goal, and solidify this vision. 

11. Act as if success is guaranteed to you.

[rigelmejo]

Estimates of Time to Learn a Language

I'm a broken record on this, but I'll say it again. Estimates of how long it may take to learn a language are yes, just estimates, so no guarantee it will take you the same amount of time as the estimate. But it's a starting point, a decent place to start guessing for oneself: "okay, if I study this long, I'll be at the skill level to do these X things, because other people who studied this long were able to do X things."

I bring up the estimates to get to B2/Upper Intermediate/Working Proficiency because they're the clearest guess I can find of how long it took some people to get to a place where they could do some stuff in the language they were studying. So for myself, I can go "okay if others took this much time to do those things, I should study at least as long as them before I expect myself to be able to do those things to some degree of skill."

For a language similar to languages you already know, some estimates I've collected are:

FSI Estimates - which are X weeks at 40 hours of study a week (23 hours of classes, 17 hours outside of class). Because they use 'weeks' which assume a lot of study, I prefer to view their estimates in terms of individual hours. Since many people will not be studying the ~40 hours a week FSI expects students to. FSI expects students take classes, so they explicitly study, and they do a variety of practice and engaging with the language. Spanish and French are 30 weeks, 1200 hours total to reach what FSI considers working proficiency which is Interagency Language Roundtable score of 3, which is equivalent to a CEFR B2.

Dreaming Spanish - this website/program conveniently has a roadmap which lists hours. Dreaming Spanish expects students to learn entirely with Comprehensible Input lessons, podcasts for learners in the target language only, and then learning with materials made for native speakers that the student can comprehend. Spanish is 1500 hours total to reach B2 level skills.

Peter Foley - he learned entirely by watching French audio-visual materials. He basically did Dreaming Spanish, but on hard mode, because he used no Comprehensible Input lessons made for learners, no podcasts made for learners, and only French materials. He started with cartoons for toddlers since that was the only materials he could understand at first, then moved onto more difficult materials gradually. He took 1800 hours to reach B2.

For languages very unlike languages you already know:

FSI estimates for languages like Thai, Mandarin, Japanese, for English native speakers would take 88 weeks, so 3520 hours.

Dreaming Spanish estimates 3000 hours. Pablo Roman, founder of Dreaming Spanish, learned Thai through the same method Dreaming Spanish teaches, and it's possible his estimate of 3000 hours was based on the time it took him to learn Thai.

ALGworld (for Thai) estimates 3000 hours to reach the language level of a 6 year old to adult (they make no comparisons to CEFR that I can find)

So in summary, most estimates suggest from 1200-3520 hours to learn a language to B2/Upper Intermediate level of skills. If the language is similar to ones you know, it may take less time. If the language is very different to ones you know, it may take more time. The estimates I found were for both formal explicit study in classes with outside-of-class engaging with the language, and for pure comprehensible input approaches. So no matter how you study, it will take many hours.

(*Yes there are exceptions, if you know multiple languages, it sometimes does take less than 1000 hours to reach B2 skill level in a language. Or if you're very good at making a study plan suited to your particular goals, you could reach particular goals much sooner than 1000+ hours. And then on the other side, there are people who will take longer than 3520 hours to learn a language to B2 - from people who just are bad at making study plans, or have no guidance, to people who will just learn slower. The estimates won't apply to everyone, and plenty of people will fall outside of it. The estimates are likely either an average, or the shorter end of a possible timeline for particularly talented learners. Most people give up long before they reach B2 in a language).

My takeaway from estimates, is that if I've only studied a few hundred hours, that explains why I can't easily confidently do the B2 level skills I am aiming to become able to do. If I want to be able to do B2 level skills, I can see my goal is 1000+ hours of work away, and start planning my study time accordingly.

[mariacallous]

In July, the local government of the Italian region of Sardinia suspended the construction of hundreds of new wind turbines, claiming that it would destroy the island’s beautiful landscape. In October, the government then announced its intention to stop the construction of new wind farms altogether, also adding solar panels to the ban.

These decisions followed mounting protests by large groups of activists who opposed these renewable energy developments, advocating instead for the use of natural gas to produce electricity. In August, unknown people set fire to two wind farms that were due to be installed in the north of the island. Similar attacks destroyed solar panels destined to be constructed on local farmland.

Under its new plans, Sardinia is betting instead on developing its natural gas infrastructure while delaying the shutdown of its coal-fired power plants, which now produce more than 60 percent of the electricity needed by the island of 1.6 million people.

The opposition to renewables in Sardinia is a blow not only to other Italian local governments, which are facing tough decisions on how to curb greenhouse gas emissions. It is also a major setback for the central government in Rome and especially for the European Union and its European Green Deal, the ambitious climate plan for the entire continent.

The ongoing battle in Sardinia is the latest example of the struggle European countries are facing in reaching their ambitious decarbonization plans in the continent. Countries such as France, Germany, and Spain have been facing opposition to these projects over the past few years, raising questions about the attainability of a central element of the EU’s green strategy.

The ability and political will of each European country to translate Europe’s plans and goals into actual national laws and policies will be crucial in reaching the continent’s ambitious climate targets. But the risk that a two-speed—or even multispeed—Europe could ultimately derail the overall plans is growing, and it will test the new European Commission’s determination to achieve sufficient progress during its upcoming mandate.

“The commission’s legacy will depend on its ability to push forward vital green policies within a maelstrom of political and domestic discontent,” said Mats Engström, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The climate team’s members must also bridge political divides within the commission to deliver on its Green Deal promises. Whether it succeeds in this task will be closely scrutinized over the upcoming five-year term.”

The European Green Deal, a policy framework to achieve climate neutrality—meaning full decarbonization—by 2050, was approved in 2020. Subsequent legislation set a 55 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. EU institutions are currently assessing the feasibility of an intermediate goal of a reduction of 90 percent by 2040, which has also been proposed by the commission.

Replacing fossil fuel energy production with renewables is just one aspect of the bloc’s goals. Others include recovering Europe’s biodiversity, making its food system more sustainable, and creating a well-functioning circular economy, all while making its industries greener.

These policies will affect all sectors of the bloc’s economy—households, industry, services, and agriculture—with the aim of also making it more competitive globally.

Analysts at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel published a report in October that identified four areas of risk that may derail the achievement of the EU’s climate goals, which also appear to be intertwined: geoeconomic instability, technological progress, exacerbated inequality, and policy credibility.

“A global economy with more trade disputes and greater risk of conflict endangers the massive capital investment needed for the transition, while the cost of clean technologies is a primary determinant of the economic viability of decarbonisation,” the analysts wrote. They added: “Climate policies will affect people’s everyday lives in disruptive ways, meaning that regressive outcomes must be guarded against, balanced with a concrete commitment to the established climate policy pillars.”

In a September report, the European Commission—the executive arm of the EU—listed a number of key achievements already reached. EU’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen by 32.5 percent from the 1990 baseline, while the European economy has grown by 67 percent over the same period, demonstrating the decoupling of growth from emissions.

However, the commission warned that although the installation of renewable power plants has been at a record high over the past few years, the pace toward EU energy efficiency and renewable targets must be further increased to ensure their achievement.

The bloc’s executive also warned about the significant challenge to the continent’s competitiveness due to rising competition with China, high energy price differentials compared to industrial competitors such as the United States, and potential strategic dependencies on clean energy technologies.

At the same time, European citizens still face high energy bills, which—combined with the rising cost of living—further reduce their purchasing power.

“The sectors in which it goes pretty well are the sectors where the economic case is there,” said Linda Kalcher, the executive director at Strategic Perspectives, another Brussels-based think-tank. “For instance, as long as there are schemes that actually support households to buy heat pumps or electric vehicles, we see that there is high uptake on them. The areas where it’s still not economically beneficial, like renovating the building stock, are obviously very slow.”

This September’s Eurobarometer, a survey conducted over the previous few months on behalf of European institutions, found that 81 percent of the sample agree that implementing a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target will contribute to Europe’s fight against climate change and to the protection of the environment.

Yet, 53 percent said the EU should encourage member states to make their first or second energy priority enacting measures to support households in energy poverty, while 50 percent said that member states should prioritize focusing on measures to reduce energy consumption or that help citizens to produce or consume energy from renewable sources.

Conall Heussaff, a research analyst at Bruegel, said the biggest risk that could hamper the achievement of the EU’s 2030 decarbonization targets is what the think tank called the “policy credibility risk.”

“There’s a danger for divisive politics to use the energy transition as a wedge, as a way to divide the public and push against the sort of ‘elite imposition’ on people’s lives,” he said.

Political disputes about climate policy were evident in the run-up to European Parliament elections in June in relation to several policy measures, including the phaseout of internal combustion engines, the so-called nature restoration law, and gas boiler sales bans in Germany. These laid bare the divisive nature of policies with a direct impact on households, businesses, and agriculture.

Experience suggests the European Green Deal policies will likely face postponements and even rollbacks in the coming years, analysts warn. These rollbacks, in turn, could stall planned investments and trigger a rise in cost for businesses and citizens that have already made investments in clean technologies.

Achieving the intermediate 90 percent emission reduction target by 2040 largely relies on replacing the current expenditure on fossil fuel with capital investments in clean technologies. According to the European Commission, the annual investment required would be around 700 billion euros ($760 billion) from 2031 to 2040.

But geoeconomic risk looms large on these plans. The disruption of clean technology supply chains potentially emerging from simmering trade tensions between the major trading blocs could derail the continent’s energy transition. So too could broader economic shocks, which might destabilize the macroeconomic situation by driving up interest rates or limiting fiscal space of European countries.

Trade tensions—particularly with China, which dominates the market for critical raw materials and many green technologies, such as solar panels and batteries—could slow down the energy transition and increase its costs.

At the same time, the initial capital investment for technologies such as wind, solar, and batteries comprises the largest share of the total cost of their implementation. Rising interest rates could therefore slow down such investments.

Increased geopolitical instability—and the possible reelection of former U.S. President Donald Trump, some argue—could also trigger higher defense spending by European countries, limiting their fiscal space to finance the energy transition. The slower development of technologies could also have a negative impact. All pathways to a net-zero economy partially rely on technologies which are so far unproven on a large scale.

In particular, progress on carbon removal technologies will be key, because if it proved to be insufficient, other sectors such as agriculture or industry could be required to reduce emissions more quickly. “To succeed, the 2040 climate and energy policy framework needs to be designed to be resilient to such risks,” Bruegel’s analysts said in their October report.

The green transition envisaged by the EU will need to have the buy-in of all the bloc’s governments as well as its citizens to overcome the risks to its success. It will require European leaders to ensure the timely and thorough implementation of existing EU legislation, while limiting political concessions to the many different groups opposing the changes needed.

[kirloris]

Hi, guys!✨

Let me introduce myself—I’m Kirloris, and I ended up on Tumblr because my teacher suggested I start a blog. She didn’t say exactly what it should be about, but from the way she said it, it was pretty obvious she meant writing. So here I am, ready to share my words with the world.

I’ve noticed that Tumblr is mostly in English, and even though Spanish is my comfort zone, I actually really like English and want to learn it. One of my goals for 2025 is to reach an intermediate level (right now, I’m somewhere between A1 and A2, so there’s still a long way to go). But I see this as a chance to grow—I get to improve my English while sharing what I love.

You could say I’m an artist in progress. I still have a long way to go before I can call myself one, but I truly believe that art is meant to be shared, and I want my words to reach as many people as possible. I know adapting is key to growing in this community, so even though I’ll be relying on translators for now, I’ll do my best to post in both languages.

That being said, I’ll never stop writing in Spanish, because that’s where my ideas really flow. So, without further ado, here’s my original introduction… now in English! 🌍💫

Here’s your text translated into natural, everyday English:

I have to be honest—I have no idea how to write a blog. As I’m typing this, I can feel a slight knot forming in my throat from the nerves. What can I say? You can call me "Kirloris." For privacy reasons, I won’t share my real name. I’m just a teenager who decided to dive into the world of art. It’s my passion, and I won’t stop until I reach my goal.

Why am I writing this blog? I like having things planned out, and I wish I had planned this better, but right now, motivation is what’s driving me. I’m in high school, and on January 24, 2025, between 10:00 and 10:30 AM (yes, I’m being this specific because if I stick with this long-term, I want to look back and remember this moment), my Language teacher—whom I had approached for help writing a story for a contest—suggested I start a blog. And now here I am, writing one without having a clue what it’ll be about.

I wouldn’t be doing this without her. Last semester, I entered a writing contest held by the Navy just for the heck of it. I didn’t win, but my teacher told me my story was well-written and on a higher level than my classmates’. Even though I didn’t win, hearing those words, seeing the excitement from my friends and some classmates when they read it, made me feel motivated.

This semester, there’s another contest—not from the Navy, but a statewide school competition open to both students and staff. I chose the short story category, though I would’ve loved to enter photography or drawing as well. Writing is something I’m better at, and during the last school break, I studied a bit on my own. Plus, it’s been my hobby since I was 11.

At first, I decided not to participate because I felt like I wouldn’t have enough time and didn’t want to overwhelm myself at the start of the semester. But then my Language teacher became our group’s advisor, and when she told us about the contest, she asked if I would enter. It seemed like such short notice—today is January 26, meaning I only have four days to write the best story I can before the teachers decide which one moves on to the regional level on February 1. I want to turn mine in early.

I found the courage to say yes. That day, I was feeling bold and confident—some things had happened earlier that really boosted my ego.

The truth is, I’ve never written a great short story before. I actually know more about novel structure than short stories. But I decided to take this on anyway. Right now, I feel like I’m sailing through a stormy sea, with multiple goals and paths in mind. It’s chaotic, but with planning and good habits, I know I can pull through.

If my dear teacher Yolanda ever reads this, I just want her to know that I’m forever grateful for giving me the wings I needed.

As you might have noticed, I’m a huge fan of art and literature—or at least that’s what my family and friends would say. The truth is, I tend to stick to my comfort zone. I only read the types of stories I like and drop the ones I don’t. I want to change that about myself.

Even though writing comes naturally to me, I actually prefer visual storytelling, like manga and comics. I love drawing—a lot. When I was four, my dad had a stack of printer paper with a printing error: a black line across the top. He couldn’t use them for serious documents, so with my mom’s permission, I grabbed my markers and started doodling like any preschooler would. Then, I set up a tiny table and chair in our front yard, made a sign, and proudly announced my own little art gallery. I tried selling my drawings for 20 cents. No one bought anything. In fact, I ended up regretting even trying to sell them because they were too precious to me.

I was always told that being a doctor was an amazing career choice, but a part of my heart has always belonged to art.

I consider myself someone who wants to break the mold and carve out my own path. Life is hard no matter what road we take, so if people think I should choose an easier one, that won’t stop me from choosing my kind of hard.

As I was writing this as a reflection exercise, I realized that I just want to achieve my goals. My dream is to help people through art and storytelling, just like artists have helped me. Doctors heal the body. Psychologists and psychiatrists heal the mind. Artists heal the soul.

I love how art can communicate so many things. It doesn’t have just one meaning. For the creator, it’s one thing; for you, it’s another; for me, something else entirely. Art can raise awareness, make you reflect, teach you lessons, and even heal you. I love it with all my heart. Whether you’re the creator or the audience, if a piece is made with intention and emotion, and we see it with that same passion, it can be the medicine we never knew our soul needed.

Through this blog, I want to share pieces of my world with you. I know Tumblr isn’t the biggest platform anymore, but it felt like the best choice. I want to tell my stories to more than just two people—I want to share them with a whole community.

I have to admit, this whole thing makes me nervous. But here I am, about to hit “publish.” I’m not a writer, not an artist, not a professional—yet. I’m working toward it, one step at a time. The thought of sharing my views on artists, paintings, drawings, writers, books, and songs excites me.

I love art in all its forms, including fashion. I haven’t been able to express myself through it yet, but I dream of doing so one day.

It’s a pleasure to meet you all. Can I call you cherubs? I feel like it adds a romantic touch to this blog.

That’s all for now, my dear cherubs. Signing off—your inexperienced blogger.

P.S. I might post every weekend.

[guillemelgat]

Language Goals 2024

Another year, another set of goals! This year, in the actual spirit of my very reasonable 2022 language goals, here are my plans for language study.

Catalan

First and foremost, my goal is to find Catalan friends in my new hometown, because I really need to speak Catalan with people at minimum once a week or I get very sad, and currently I’m not speaking it with anyone at all. This goal is pretty chill though—I just have to actually sit down and put in the time to find people.

My main goal is to read 30 books in Catalan. I’ll make a proper post about it with a list of books that I’m thinking of and how the challenge itself is going to work, but overall I’m trying to pick a mix of styles and genres, so expect anything from medieval literature to YA novels to academic texts. I have a lot of books that I’ve been meaning to read for a while, so hopefully this will give me a chance to chip into some of them. 30 books is less than other versions of this challenge that I’ve seen, but it’s also many more books than I’ve read in Catalan possibly ever and I think it’s more reasonable in conjunction with a full class load. Hopefully it ends up being just the right amount!

Welsh & Basque

This year I really want to work hard to actually get these two to an upper intermediate level, because I’m so close if I put in the work. For both of them, I have two main goals: (1) go through the textbooks/workbooks that I started going through casually last semester (Basic Welsh: A Grammar and Workbook by Gareth King and Standard Basque: A Progressive Grammar by Rudolf P.G. de Rijk) so that I can continue to review and learn new grammatical structures, and (2) watch one episode of a TV series each week in each language. For the TV series, I’m going to be watching Rownd a Rownd on S4C (which is available outside Wales/the UK! Huge win!) and Eskamak kentzen on EITB. If I have time, I’ll try to go through episodes more thoroughly and note down new vocabulary and such, but the main goal is to make a routine of it and watch consistently so I’m trying to keep it simple. I’d also like to use both languages with other people more often if I can, but I think finding a consistent language partner will perhaps be a goal for another year.

Malayalam

I’m planning to focus the first half of the year on Welsh and Basque, and then next fall, I’m hoping to be able to take the Malayalam classes offered by my university and to get into studying my home dialect (or rather, my extended family’s home dialect, since I didn’t speak it at home) as well. Since this will be later and also classroom learning rather than self-study, I’m not going to go into details, but overall, after my trip to Kerala (which I have stuff about, it’s on the docket!), I’m generally feeling much less alienated and much more motivated to study the language. I’m also looking forward to being able to take real classes, which I think will help keep me focused and on track.

Russian

This is a minor goal, but at my friend’s house over the summer, her mom was joking that if they just spoke to me in Russian while I stayed at their house, I’d probably be able to understand it by the end. That led us to concoct a plan where I study a bit of Russian vocab, then go there and do intensive Russian immersion for a weekend or so. This is more of a silly goal, but I’d like to try it because I think it could be fun.

Anki

This isn’t a language goal per se, but rather a general resolution to spend this year learning to use (and tweaking and configuring) Anki. Anki has a notoriously high barrier to entry, and from everything I’ve seen it should be treated as a long-term, intensive project—I’ll hopefully reap the rewards later if I take my time and set up everything right in the early stages. With that in mind, I’m hoping that by the end of the year I’ve figure out a set up for my decks and cards that really works for getting me to remember and be able to use vocab and grammar. I’ll focus on the languages here for the start, but I’m hoping that with habit and time, if I get a good system going I can use it with other languages too.

And that’s it! It’s been a bit since I was systematic about studying languages, but I’ve found that I really miss it and want to go back. I feel like I’m at a really good place with all of these, and I’d like to continue to make progress, so I’m really trying to focus on consistency and hitting the sweet spot of just challenging enough to get myself out of my comfort zone while not burning out. Hopefully I’ve set this up in a way to build habits and make me excited to keep immersing myself with these languages in the coming years, which is really the key to learning any language in the long term—I've realized that I speak Catalan so well because it's fully integrated into my life, and I'd like all these others to be as well. Here’s to a good 2024, and I wish all of you luck with your own goals as well!

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Ian Millhiser at Vox:

On Thursday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Trump v. United States, the case where former President Donald Trump claims that he is immune from prosecution for any “official acts” that he committed while in office. It is, frankly, very difficult to care about this case or to spend mental energy teasing out what the justices may say in their opinions. That’s because Trump has already won.

Trump’s arguments in this case are exceedingly weak, and it is unlikely that even this Supreme Court, with its 6-3 Republican supermajority, will hold that Trump was allowed to do crimes while he was president. Trump’s immunity argument is so broad that his lawyer told a lower court that it would apply even if he ordered the military to kill one of his rivals. (Though Trump does concede that he could be prosecuted if he were first impeached and convicted.) But this case was never actually about whether the Constitution allows a sitting president to avoid prosecution if he uses the powers of the presidency to commit crimes. Trump’s goal is not to win an improbable Supreme Court order holding that he can assassinate his political adversaries. It is to delay his criminal trial for attempting to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election for as long as possible — and ideally, from Trump’s perspective, until after the 2024 election.

And the Supreme Court has been his willing patsy. As a general rule, federal courts only permit one court to have jurisdiction over a case at a time. So once Trump appealed trial Judge Tanya Chutkan’s ruling that, no, presidents are not allowed to do crimes, Chutkan lost her authority to move forward with Trump’s criminal trial until after that appeal was resolved. Special prosecutor Jack Smith understands this problem as well as anyone, which is why he wanted the Supreme Court to bypass an intermediate appeals court and rule immediately on Trump’s immunity claim last December. The justices denied that request. After the appeals court ruled, they also denied Smith’s request to resolve the case on an much more expedited schedule.

[...]

The legal arguments in the Trump v. US case, explained in case anyone actually cares

Trump’s lawyers seek to blur the line between civil lawsuits — the president actually is immune from being sued for official actions taken while in office — and criminal prosecutions. Under the Supreme Court’s precedents, all government officials, from a rookie beat cop all the way up to the president, enjoy some degree of immunity from federal lawsuits filed by private citizens. If you follow debates about police reform, you’ve no doubt heard the term “qualified immunity.” This is a legal doctrine that often allows police officers (and most other government officials) to avoid liability when they violate a private citizen’s rights. As the Supreme Court held in Harlow v. Fitzgerald (1982), “government officials performing discretionary functions, generally are shielded from liability for civil damages insofar as their conduct does not violate clearly established statutory or constitutional rights of which a reasonable person would have known.”

The purpose of this immunity is to protect government officials from the kind of liability that might deter them from performing their jobs well. Harlow argued that qualified immunity ensures that the stresses of litigation won’t divert “official energy from pressing public issues.” It prevents lawsuits from deterring “able citizens from acceptance of public office.” And the Court in Harlow also warned about “the danger that fear of being sued will ‘dampen the ardor of all but the most resolute, or the most irresponsible [public officials], in the unflinching discharge of their duties.’” Yet, while qualified immunity often prevents civil lawsuits against police and other government officials from moving forward, it’s never been understood as a shield against criminal prosecution. Just ask Derek Chauvin, the police officer convicted of murdering George Floyd. The Supreme Court has also ruled that a short list of government officials — prosecutors, judges, and the president — have “absolute immunity” from civil suits. This is because people who hold these three jobs are unusually vulnerable to harassment suits filed by private litigants. Prosecutors perform duties that require them to antagonize potential litigants: criminal defendants. And judges’ duties necessarily require them to rule in favor of some parties and against others — who might then turn around and sue the judge.

[...]

The best defense of the Supreme Court’s behavior in this case

The Court’s decision to delay Trump’s trial for months, rather than expediting this case as Smith requested, cannot be defended. That said, in an op-ed published in the New York Times shortly after the Supreme Court decided to delay Trump’s trial, University of Texas law professor Lee Kovarsky made the strongest possible argument for giving the justices at least some time to come up with a nuanced approach to the question of whether a former president is sometimes immune from criminal prosecution.

Trump, Kovarsky argues, should not be given immunity from prosecution for attempting to overturn an election. But he warns that “American democracy is entering a perilous period of extreme polarization — one in which less malfeasant presidents may face frivolous, politicized prosecutions when they leave office.” For this reason, Kovarsky argues that “the Supreme Court should seize this opportunity to develop a narrow presidential immunity in criminal cases” that would prevent a future president from, say, prosecuting President Biden for the crime of being a Democrat. The problem with this argument, however, is that even if the current Supreme Court could come up with a legal framework that would allow Smith’s prosecution of Trump to move forward, while also screening out any future case where a president was prosecuted for improper reasons, there’s no reason to think that a future Supreme Court would hew to this framework. Kovarsky is arguing that the Court should use the Trump case to establish a precedent that can guide its future decisions. A precedent like Roe v. Wade. Or like Lemon v. Kurtzman. Or like Regents of the University of California v. Bakke. Or like United States v. Miller. Or like any other precedent that this Supreme Court has tossed out after that decision fell out of favor with the Republican Party.

Donald Trump won the delay battle in Trump v. United States, even as the court hasn't issued a ruling yet on whether or not he has total presidential immunity.