#expert drone operators

[marigoldendragon]

Thinking of how the Twst boys would go trying to take a bra off their partner for the first time. Mild spice

Riddle - He'd struggle. He's too emotionally constipated for intimacy at first.

Cater - Easy enough. Man was SMOTHERED by his sisters growing up. He'd be desensitised to all things feminine, it's just another piece of clothing to him.

Trey - It wouldn't be smooth sailing, but he'd just casually laugh at himself and continue what he was doing.

Ace - He'd be nervous but otherwise it'd go smoothly. He thanks his past self for learning all that slight of hand. Dexterity +1

Deuce - He'd be red faced and taking it so seriously. He'd blue screen once he finally gets it off and sees whats underneath.

Leona - Man's ripping that thing off with his teeth. R.I.P bra.

Ruggie - Mr pickpocket would have *zero* problems getting it off you. Dexterity +5

Jack - He'd struggle so much. Not only would his nerves get the better of him but his giant hands are not used to such delicate tasks.

Azul - Another one where his emotional state would impair his hand eye coordination. Don't laugh at him he'd never recover.

Jade - If he knew there was a possibility of such an event happening he would come prepared. Has no difficulties with the task.

Floyd - Man's ripping that thing off with his teeth 2.0. R.I.P another bra.

Kalim - He'd struggle with it, but you guys would have fun laughing about the situation anyway.

Jamil - He's probably helped Kalim get dressed in fancy clothes a lot. Dealt with plenty of fiddly buttons, clasps, toggles etc in the past. Smooth sailing for him.

Vil - Mr world famous model, actor, fashion expert? The most gender non conforming person in the whole school? (except for maybe Lilia). Not only would taking a bra off you be easy you'd probably leave with a better quality one than you came with. (He'd magically make it your size. Great sevens you've never had a bra ft so well)

Rook - He'd take forever with it. Not because of a skill issue, he'd just want to savour the moment.

Epel - Would have practiced/watched tutorials beforehand. Wants to be a smooth operator when the time comes. Be impressed by his manly skill.

Idia - Man would be having massive performance anxiety issues. Please be gentle with him. (He'd be bragging about his skills later online though)

I feel weird including Ortho in this. Skip!

Malleus - There's a possibility of him getting in his own head about having to deal with unknown 'human' clothing. Wouldn't be an issue though, he'd just magic it off you.

Silver - He's calm and steady. Even if he's got butterflies in his stomach he takes it slow and has no problems.

Sebek - Yet another emotionally constipated one who's head gets in the way of their hands. Takes him a minute. Probably blushes and averts his gaze like a scandalised housewife when he finally sees the tiddy.

Lilia - hahahaha Man has that thing off you before you even realise he's reached for the clasp. Dexterity +100

.... you know what I might include the staff this time. Although they're all adults who have presumably encountered bras before XD

Crowley - Mans won't shut up. Keeps droning on and you wonder if he's ever going to make his move only for you to discover your not wearing a bra anymore. When did he do that?

Crewel - If he's taking it off you it's likely just so he can put some other fancy lingerie back on you.

Vargas - Hands too big and muscular. Accidentally breaks it in the process. Another for the bra graveyard.

Trein - He's had a wife. Man knows what he's doing.

Sam - Quick and deft with it. This man FUCKS

[samheughanswife]

What is a kiss? Usually a way to express love, affection or as part of a greeting.

So let’s put this into perspective.

. Cast photographed together before boarding the bus that drove them to Murrayfield. So it’s a given that greetings were exchanged. Kisses and hugs, at the very beginning of the class excursion to TS concert with both the Headmistress and her deputy in attendance.

. Arrival and settling into the VIP tent and waiting for the pre show performance. Drinks, talking and familiarising themselves with the setup. Access, security, toilets.

. Sam and Caitriona would have been cognisant that the performance was filmed. All the other performances have been with multiple cameras and drones. TS set the standards very high with the use of technology so everyone can enjoy and benefit from her concerts.

. The chances of being filmed were high. They were very close to the stage and in the line of sight of the multiple cameras. These are two people very well versed in outdoor and location filming. Not novices. They would have seen the crew pre show.

. Paramore start their set with introductions and then their performance.

. Not sure how long they were in attendance before Paramore came on stage and not my job to find out. But suffice to say co-star catchup interactions were done and dusted.

What the video shows is a woman, Caitriona, so intuitively and intimately comfortable with Sam that she draws him in, arm around his neck and kisses him. Twice. It’s there on film. And it’s this that has the tumblrinas knickers so twisted.

We see a Caitriona who clearly not only “likes” her costar ( you know that she is said to hate him) but initiates UNNECESSARY closeness and deep affection, LOVE, for Sam whichever way you look at it. It was hours into being together on the excursion, not minutes.

These aren’t stills or screenshots. It’s on film. In technicolour. Swifty technicolour 🩷💚🩵🩶💙❤️💛🤎💜.

The existence of this video was dropped into the inbox of multiple accounts. It was there to watch and disseminate and ultimately share.

The only one to do so was @sgiandubh. I thank you so much and I’m saddened but not surprised that you have had to deal with the typical bullshit that comes from sharing any content that rattles the entrenched group think and mindset of so many.

“You think I’d leave your side, baby

You know me better than that

You think I’d leave when you’re down on your knees

I wouldn’t do that” By your Side, Sade 🤎

Caitriona showed not only her support for Sam after the HH pap walk but love as well. Platonic if you aren’t a believer and of course for me a woman who was unafraid and with zero fucks to give because she was aware that there was a chance it would be seen and still she moved in with the kisses and hugs.

Smooth operator ( sorry couldn’t help myself 😘)

N.B. Real life happens, I’m not here hitting refresh 24/7.

I’ve enjoyed reading the experts trying to make it make sense. The discomfort is real.

Caitriona forcing herself to get through a few hours of non work ( but it kinda was) with a co star she has barely tolerated these past few years and what do we see, deep down love and affection.

As as it’s often screeched ‘photos or it didn’t happen’ well we have video footage!!

[zaczenemiji]

Could I request a Kenji x Reader where the reader is an Ailen who is very much stranded on Earth and on The run from the KDF who wants access to their tech

Among the Stars I

Kenji Sato x Alien!Reader

Word Count: 1,766

Genre/Warning: Falling in Love, Friends to Lovers, Slow Burn

Author’s Note: To me, reader is an alien in the sense that she is a foreigner to this planet; how she looks is up to you. Takes place after Emi. AND I THINK AOSHIMA DESERVES RECOGNITION LIKE 🫢 AIN’T HE HOT TOO?????

MASTERLIST

The stars twinkled in the dark expanse of space as you navigated through the cosmos. This wasn’t the first time you traversed through the void. In fact, you were a professional at this.

Being one of the respected astrophysicists of your planet, you have always been one sent on space voyages. Your mission was simple, something you were good at, so what could possibly go wrong?

At least that’s what you thought a few moments ago.

"Engine malfunction detected. Immediate landing required.”

As if the flashing red lights and blaring alarms weren’t enough, the onboard AI wouldn’t shut up either, all of them adding up to the panic in your already pounding heart.

“Engine failure. Emergency landing procedure initiated.”

Your struggle to regain control was hopeless. Assessing your options, Earth was the nearest habitable planet. With no time to spare, you steered the spacecraft towards the blue planet.

The descent was turbulent, flames licking at the hull as the spacecraft entered Earth's atmosphere. You gritted your teeth, fighting to maintain the little control you had left.

Scanning the residential area that stretched beneath, you spotted a forested area and made a split-second decision. With expert precision, your maneuver slowed down the descent just enough to avoid a catastrophic impact.

The spacecraft touched down with a jolt, skidding through the underbrush before coming to a stop. Smoke billowed from the damaged engines and you knew you needed to secure the craft first.

Despite the damage, the emergency propulsion system still had enough power for short-distance travel. With steady hands, you activated the system again, guiding the spacecraft toward a nearby body of water.

The craft hovered momentarily above with a soft hum. Carefully pushing the controls, you maneuvered it into a controlled descent where it submerged beneath the water, disappearing from view.

In the control room of the Kaiju Defense Force, monitors flickered with data streams from satellite scans displaying Japan’s airspace and terrestrial activity.

"Report," Aoshima commanded.

"Sir, we've detected a significant impact in sector 7G. Satellite images indicate a disturbance in the forested area, consistent with an object of considerable mass landing."

Aoshima scrutinized the images, noting the telltale signs of a recent crash landing, “Any signs of the object itself?"

"Negative visual confirmation, sir. The object appears to have made impact and then moved into concealment."

"Prepare a recon team," Aoshima ordered crisply. "I want a full scan of the area. Notify all units in the vicinity to be on alert."

Aoshima contemplated the implications. For years, KDF had struggled against the relentless onslaught of kaiju attacks under Dr. Onda. His last will was for the survival of KDF.

Aoshima shared Dr. Onda’s vision and if this alien technology held the key to turning the tide in humanity's favor, they couldn't afford to hesitate.

Meanwhile, having just emerged from the submerged spacecraft, you cautiously explored the area. Your advanced sensors warned you of Earth's surveillance systems, but you had hoped to remain undetected.

Your hope, however, was short-lived as the sound of whirring and a shadow passing overhead alerted you to the arrival of drones. Quickly, you dashed into the forest, heart pounding as you navigated the unfamiliar terrain.

Above you, the drones buzzed in pursuit, their sensors tracking your every move. Their operators relayed your position to ground units, who quickly mobilized to intercept.

You emerged onto the outskirts of a bustling city. Buildings towered overhead and streets were crowded with unsuspecting pedestrians. You had to blend in to evade capture.

Tokyo has always been bustling with a sea of people moving with purpose. Among them was Kenji and today, his life would take a turn he could never have predicted.

He was jogging through a quieter part of the city when suddenly, a force collided with him, nearly knocking him off balance. Looking down, he saw a woman his age, face partially obscured by a hooded cloak.

You looked up at him, eyes wide with fear. "I'm sorry," you gasped, glancing over your shoulder. "I... I need to go."

Before Kenji could respond, you tried to bolt, but he gently grabbed your arm. "Hey, what's going on?” He asked, genuinely concerned. “You look terrified."

You hesitated, clearly torn between fear and the need for help. Before you could decide, KDF agents appeared at the end of the street.

“Surrender peacefully, and we won't harm you," one of them demanded sternly.

"No," you replied, a slight determination in your trembling voice.

Kenji’s instincts flared. To him, KDF has been nothing but trouble. So without a word, he pulled you behind him, putting himself between you and the agents.

They slowed, eyes narrowing at Kenji. "This is official business," the leader said, his voice cold. "Step aside."

Kenji ignored the command, gripping your hand tighter. "Run," he whispered urgently, before leading you in a sprint away from KDF.

The two of you took off with Kenji guiding you through a series of narrow alleyways and bustling streets.

"Over here," he whispered, pulling you into a side street. You dodged through a market, running between stalls and startled shoppers. The KDF was temporarily delayed by the crowd, buying you precious seconds.

Kenji's heart pounded, both from the exertion and the adrenaline. "Keep your hood up," he urged you. "We can't let them see your face."

You continued running, the sound of pursuit growing fainter. Kenji led you through a maze of side streets, finally emerging onto a quieter residential road.

"Almost there," he panted, squeezing your hand reassuringly.

Finally, you reached a house guarded by a big gate on the outskirts of the city. Kenji quickly unlocked the gate and ushered you towards the house.

Inside, Kenji guided you to the living room, where you sank onto the couch, hood falling back and revealing your face.

“Mina, emergency analysis,” he said as a spherical robot hovered towards you, red light scanning your body.

"Scan complete," Mina announced. "Subject is experiencing elevated stress levels and minor physical exhaustion. No immediate threats and no tracking devices detected.”

"Thank you," you said, voice filled with gratitude and lingering fear.

Kenji nodded, breathing heavily. "Are you okay?"

You nodded, her gaze lingering on him with a mix of surprise and curiosity, “I didn't expect anyone to help."

"I'm Kenji," he introduced himself, extending a hand.

You hesitated briefly before shaking his hand, "I'm (y/n)."

"You can catch your breath here,” Kenji said, standing up. “I'll get us some water." He returned with two glasses of water; you accepted one gratefully.

"Why were those guys after you?" Kenji asked, his curiosity piqued.

"I'm not from Earth. I'm…” you hesitated but you owed him an explanation and also to save you from the trouble of pretending. “…an alien."

"An alien?” He blinked in surprise. “But you look human."

"Alien in the sense that I'm from a distant planet," you explained softly. "I crash-landed here not long ago.”

You told him everything—your mission, how you ended up being chased by what he referred to as the Kaiju Defense Force, and your spacecraft.

“I would like to ask another favor if it’s not too much,” you said with hesitation; Kenji helping you escape and sheltering you was already more than enough. “I need you to help me find Ultraman.”

You knew about Ultraman and his origin. You’ve been sent to Nebula M78 a couple of times already. If there’s someone who could help you get back to your planet, it’s him.

“Ultraman?” Kenji's eyes widened. “Why?"

“I know of him,” you said. "He might be the only one who can help me.”

Kenji took a deep breath, realizing he couldn't keep his secret any longer. "Well, there’s something you should know,” he said.

“What is it?” You asked, confused.

He looked straight into your eyes, his face set with resolve, “I'm Ultraman."

The room fell silent. "You're...” your eyes widened. “Ultraman?"

Kenji nodded, “Yes, and I’m not supposed to tell anyone but if helping you means revealing it, then so be it."

Your eyes teared up with joy. Just when you thought that this day was full of bad luck, here came your silver lining—a stunning man one at that.

Kenji asked you about the whereabouts of your spacecraft so he, in his Ultraman form, can bring it here in no time. His house had a basement submerged underwater which provided an easy way to bring it over.

His dad, the previous Ultra, happened to live with him. Kenji explained the situation and his dad, an expert in this field, generously offered to help.

Hayao circled the craft, examining it closely. "Impressive design," he muttered, running his hands over the hull. "But clearly, it's been through a lot."

"I think it’s the power core," you explained. "It was heavily depleted during the crash, and I can't get the ship operational again."

"I see. A power core like this...” Hayao nodded thoughtfully. “…it's incredibly advanced. Recharging it with Earth's technology would be almost impossible."

"So, there's no way to fix it?" You looked at him, worried and on the brink of tears.

"Not exactly,” he smiled reassuringly. “While we can't recharge it with conventional means, there might be another way. We need an alternative energy source—something with immense power."

"What about the energy that powers Ultraman?” Kenji stepped forward. “Could it work?"

Hayao considered this, nodding slowly. "It's possible,” he said. “Ultraman's energy is vast and unique. We might be able to transfer some of it to the power core."

Your eyes lit up with hope, “Do you think it could really work?" Hayao placed a reassuring hand on your shoulder, "It's worth a try.”

He explained that he would first need to create an energy transfer device. But with the resources here on Earth, it’s a trial and error to see which would be compatible with your spacecraft. Needless to say, it would take a lot longer before you could go back home.

Kenji led you down a hallway to a cozy guest room. He opened the door, revealing a spacious room with a bed, a dresser, and a big window overlooking the bay.

“You can stay here until we figure everything out,” Kenji said. “It's safer than being out there with the KDF looking for you."

"Are you sure?” You looked up at him. “I don't want to be a burden."

"You're not a burden,” he smiled reassuringly. “I’ll leave you to get some rest. We've got a lot to do tomorrow."

With that, you settled into the room with a sense of peace for the first time since crashing on Earth.

Taglist is open! Comment if u wanna be tagged on future Kenji oneshots

@eternallyvenus @puppyminnnie @wattpadsuckssohard @sakura-onesan @reggies-eyeliner @buggs-1 @miffysoo @spencerrxids @stupidbutsmart @marimargirlies @mixvchelle @lannnu @lailuv21 @christiinee @abracarabbit @youngbananamilkshake @flutterfly365 @o-schist @brazilsho @arrozyfrijoles23 @finestflora @mmeerraa @mianbaobaoo @skyeliteratures @themourningfox @despacito-uwu16 @crimson-mage-02 @vinegarjello @btszn @berryjuicyy @https-mika @reader-1290 @bakugouswaif

[mariacallous]

This is dated 12-29-2023, for the record.

It was a nightmare scenario that Ukrainian and Western officials had feared for months. Western officials have watched as Russia stacked up precision-guided munitions to launch targeted attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the winter while keeping up the pace of strikes on cities using unguided “dumb” bombs. 

And on Friday morning, it became a reality. Russia conducted a hailstorm of strikes across Ukraine, hitting Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Kharkiv. There were at least 158 drone and missile strikes in all, which damaged hospitals, a shopping mall, and schools, killing at least 31 people and injuring more than 160. 

The numbers are still going up as search and rescue teams pick through the rubble. Russia fired its missiles with so much abandon that the Polish government confirmed one of the Kremlin’s projectiles entered its airspace. In the chaos that engulfed the Kyiv streets, one man tried to stop the fires from spreading by driving his burning car away from his neighbors. 

The renewed barrages have Ukrainian officials and U.S. experts questioning how long they’ll be able to keep the lights on during winter—or hold territory—especially with the long tail of U.S. military aid running out, unless Congress acts soon. 

Ukrainian officials believe that Russia’s capacity to strike is even greater than what it just showed off: The Kremlin can fire off about 300 Iranian-made suicide drones in one attack on Ukraine and about 150 ballistic missiles in one shot on Kyiv, said Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker.  

And with the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled and fresh weapons not flowing until January at the earliest, how resilient will the Ukrainians be? 

“The Ukrainians are heading for a tough winter, for obvious reasons,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said in an interview earlier this month. “But I think that the Ukrainian morale is much, much higher than the Russian morale. What is crucial right now, of course, is that we all will step up support.”

But that morale is now getting tested, as Ukrainians were shaken out of bed by dozens of air raid alerts that lit up their phones. And the aid isn’t coming—at least until the U.S. Congress gets back from recess in the second week of January, and maybe for even longer. 

“Ukraine needs funding now to continue to fight for freedom from such horror in 2024,” Bridget Brink, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, wrote in a tweet screenshotting the numerous air raid alerts sent to Kyiv residents.

U.S. officials have seen movement across the nearly stagnant front lines slow considerably in recent weeks, a trend that is expected to continue. The weather in Ukraine has hit subzero temperatures and piles of snow have mostly halted forward movement along the 600-mile front, underscoring the prospect of several months of attrition warfare. Ukraine is already making moves to lower the draft age to get more men onto the battlefield.  

Ukraine doesn’t need any silver bullets, experts say. It just needs the regular kind. 

“We’re clearly past the ground counteroffensive now,” said Peter Rough, a senior fellow and director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute. “Since it won’t get large numbers of longer-range precision fires, Ukraine probably needs to entrench and defend right now—and absent Congress passing the supplemental, even those defensive lines may not remain stable.” 

Still, Jonson said the Ukrainian military has been getting some access to more long-range strike weapons, which has forced Russian ships and aircraft to move farther away from the front lines. But Ukraine has had to build its military while fending off the invasion: Jonson said that Kyiv is operating about 600 types of Western weapons systems, while ferrying fuel and spare parts across the front line. All that on roads that will be coated with sleet, snow, and ice. 

Even with its limited arsenal of Western-provided long-range weapons like British-made Storm Shadows and the cluster variant of the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, Ukraine has still made a dent, knocking out a Russian tank landing ship in Crimea on Tuesday. And experts believe that Russia’s fragile logistics system—which was never designed for continuous military operations across Europe’s second-largest country—is a good target.  

“If they had longer-range weapons, they could completely wreck the logistics system,” said Ben Hodges, the former head of U.S. Army Europe. “I think they know this is a real vulnerability for the Russians, particularly in winter.” 

But Ukrainians fear they are already running out of munitions—and time. Though Western-provided air defenses blanket much of Kyiv, they are not enough to defend against far-flung Russian attacks that could dot the country during winter. As much as Ukraine needs more air defenses to blunt attacks like Friday’s firestorm, Ukrainian officials have indicated that the falling temperatures have already shifted their priorities: Attrition warfare means a premium on artillery fire, and Europe is far behind on its target to produce a million artillery shells by March 2024.

“The biggest problem we’re going to run into is when they start shelling us heavily,” Ustinova said. “Because we will not have enough munitions.” 

But Ukraine has been forced to cut military operations as aid has dried up. Ukrainian Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who heads up a group of forces in the southern push, told the BBC this week that Ukraine is facing particularly acute shortages of Soviet-era 122 mm and 152 mm shells, which still make up a large portion of Kyiv’s military arsenal. And if the Ukrainians want to apply forward pressure in spite of the snow, they have to clear entire minefields in front of them, only for the Russians to reseed the deadly explosives from the air. 

The Russian war chest is still heavily stocked. Hanno Pevkur, the Estonian defense minister, said in November that Russia still has about 7,000 to 8,000 tanks in reserve. Meanwhile, Russia has turned its sanctions-battered economy into a war economy. The Kremlin plans to spend 6 percent of GDP on defense next year. And Russian President Vladimir Putin’s deals for drones with Iran and ammunition with North Korea have indicated to Western officials that Russia’s game is quantity, not quality. 

“It doesn’t matter. As long as it fires, as long as it unfortunately kills Ukrainians, it is good for Russians,” Pevkur said. “They are increasing their production, especially ammunition. They don’t care about the quality. They care about the quantity.” 

Western officials believe that there are 300,000 to 400,000 Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, across a swath of occupied territory that is about the size of the contiguous Baltic states. Russian casualties have totaled about that many troops in the 22 months since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion began. But experts caution that the cannon fodder won’t last forever. It might not have to last that much longer, though.

In November, Russian forces claimed to gain ground around the eastern city of Avdiivka, where Western officials believe the Kremlin is trying to make a pincer move to encircle the town, the site of a major coke fuel and chemical plant. They’ve also set their sights on the important railway junction of Kupyansk. 

“They just keep pushing these guys into a meat grinder to convey the sense that they have endless resources,” Hodges said. “They don’t have endless resources.” 

For now, though, absent Western aid, Russia’s focus on eastern Ukraine could lead Kyiv to cede more ground. 

“That’s very painful for us, because we pay thousands of lives to get every single kilometer,” Ustinova said.  

“They are already taking more territory,” she added. “Look at the map.”

[probablyasocialecologist]

The "Israel" X account tweeted on Tuesday night what it said was evidence of PIJ culpability in the attack, saying that “from the analysis of the operational systems of the IDF, an enemy rocket barrage was carried out towards Israel, which passed through the vicinity of the hospital when it was hit”. However, the original version of the post included a video of rockets fired from the vicinity of Gaza City. The video was later deleted by the account, while analysts noted that the first public mentions of the bombing were at 7.20pm local time, whereas the video shared by Israel as evidence was time-stamped at between 7.59 and 8pm local time. That same account shared audio on Wednesday from the Israeli army claiming to be a conversation between Hamas operatives, in which they discuss the destruction of the hospital and pin it on PIJ. But Muhammad Shehada, a Gaza-based civil rights activist who has reported on Hamas for a decade, posted that the quote had been mistranslated from "they're saying" to "we're saying". "He's describing a rumour, not evidence," Shehada wrote, before going on to list other reasons for believing the audio was part of a campaign of misinformation. Alex Thomson, a correspondent for Channel 4 News, said "several experts" had told him the "audio tape of 'Hamas' operatives talking about the missile malfunction is a fake. They say the tone, syntax, accent and idiom are absurd." "They shot it from the cemetary behind the hospital," one of them can be heard saying. Francesco Sebregondi, an architect and researcher currently with the investigative NGO Index, told Middle East Eye that Israel was keen to provide material quickly for analysts to pin their conclusions on. "By quickly providing a number of poorly substantiated 'evidence' in the form of, for example, drone footage of the site, the Israeli army may also be counting on the eagerness of some Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) actors to use any image/material/data to quickly publish new content, or 'analysis' and thereby more or less directly support its version of the events," he said.

[orcinus-veterinarius]

do you have any tips for determining if a whale watching company/tour is ethical? i live in the puget sound area and i’ve always wanted to go, but i’m wary of picking a service that isn’t operating with best practices for the health of the wildlife in mind

That's amazing! It's been a dream of mine to see the wild orcas in the Pacific Northwest since I was a tiny kid obsessively rereading Killer Whales of the World. Unfortunately, I've never been to that region, nor have I ever lived near the coast for longer than 2 months, so I'm not really an expert on whale watching. But I did reach out to a few marine biologists and naturalists living in the area for their suggestions! Maya's Legacy and Outer Island Excursions were Puget Sound whale watching tours they recommended.

NOAA and Be Whale Wise are good resources for whale watching guidelines, and provide a hotline for reporting violations (don't feel like you're a snitch, it's necessary to protect the animals!). In general, whale watchers should stay 100 yards away from cetaceans (200 yards if they are killer whales), and responsible whale watching vessels will cut their engines to avoid disrupting the animals. Ships should never attempt to run down or cut off whales, bait them with food, and allow passengers to enter the water with them. Overall, I think Salish Sea tours are better about this than say, Florida or Baja California, but still worth keeping in mind.

I'm personally not a fan of whale watching tours that use drones, since I've seen a lot of footage on whale watchers' social media taken from drones that are flown way too close to the animals. I would prefer drones only be used by researchers or professional wildlife videographers with proper permitting.

There are a few certifications for whale watching companies, but I'm not really sure which, if any, hold merit. You could also check the company's website to see if any of their staff are credentialed in marine biology or conservation science.

I hope that was helpful! Happy whale watching!

[the-garbanzo-annex-jr]

by Vijeta Uniyal 

The Israeli news website YNET reported the details:

Syria TV, a Syrian opposition media outlet based in Turkey, reported on Wednesday that Israeli ground forces were deployed using ropes as part of the Israeli strike in the Hama region on Sunday, although Israeli aircraft didn’t land in the area. The report claimed that Israeli drones carried out strikes to prevent entry to the area where the forces landed. The unprecedented Israeli operation in Syria reportedly included several steps: starting with intense airstrikes in the area after which Israeli forces infiltrated an Iranian military complex after lowering from helicopters to the ground and ending with troops seizing documents and arresting Iranians inside of the facility for questioning. According to the report, clashes at the site led to the deaths of three Syrians and injured others. Two to four Iranians were reportedly captured by Israeli forces. Sources indicated the Syrian regime blocked rescue teams from reaching the area following the attack. The bodies of military casualties were taken to an undisclosed location and their fate is unknown, while wounded civilians were evacuated to Masyaf National Hospital. Sources also suggested the Syrian regime or elements within it may have facilitated the strike and troop deployment. The report also noted that a committee of inquiry was established following the attack. In recent weeks, Syrian radars and air defense systems have been subjected to Israeli strikes, leading to the regime’s inability to monitor its airspace. According to Greek researcher Eva Koulouriotis, the forces raided a security complex belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in an operation that lasted about an hour, during which they entered the facility, seized equipment and documents, rigged the building with explosives and destroyed it with additional airstrikes. Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies head, Major General (res.) Tamir Hayman who previously served as the head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, hinted the operation was “a complex commando raid that presents abilities to destroy a distant underground facility.”

[matan4il]

Daily update post:

Yesterday, a suicide drone crashed in the Golan Heights. The IDF estimates that it was launched from Syria (though earlier, there was an Iranian funded militia in Iraq that claimed responsibility for firing at a target in the Golan Heights). the alarm didn't go off, and it wasn't intercepted, which is a reminder that no warning and defence system, not even the best one, is impenetrable. There was then a wave of sirens going off through Israel's north, likely because of debris from the interception, falling on different commeunities.

Today, another attack drone was intercepted over Israel's north. Over the area where my paternal grandparents lived, when they were still with us. Thankfully, there are no known injuries, but on top of that, there were no less than five more warnings of a drone crossing into Israel. If there will be no diplomatic solution for the situation in the north, meaning if the world doesn't intervene and FINALLY implement UN resolution 1701, which says that Hezbollah will not operate next to the Israeli border, or anywhere south of the Litani river, then things will get worse. One Israeli Aramean expert I was listening to, was talking about how much ammunition, and how many weapons, Hezbollah has aimed at Israel. Let's put it this way, they make Hamas look like kids.

Three more soldiers were killed in Gaza yesterday. We get news like this every single day now. Usually we get the names once or twice a day (morning and evening), depending on how many have died. You see people tense up around the time when the news is about to drop. I wanted to share with you that Israeli civilians have starting doing something so often, that it's almost like a new custom. When people learn about where a funeral will be held, they stand by the sides of the road with Israeli flags, to escrot the fallen soldier on his or her last journey, even when they didn't know the soldier at all.

I wrote a whole post about why Oct 7, despite all of the differences, and the fact that there is no comparison, bears similarities for Jewish people to the Holocaust. I was reminded of that post again today. I saw a vid with Holocaust survivor and famous Israeli actress, Lea Koenig. Knowing of her history, when I heard the start of her testimony, I was sure I was listening to her recounting her experiences during the Hoolocaust. It turns out that no, she's reading a testimony from Oct 7. The fact that some of these testimonies are indistinguishable should explain why the massacre, shocking as it is all on its own, is also deeply triggering for Jews. Here's the vid:

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Australia says it will look into whether an Australian citizen who was killed in an Israeli counter strike in Lebanon yesterday, was a Hezbollah terrorist, as the organization claims. If he was, then fighting for a terrorist organization (as Hezbollah is defined in Australia) is a criminal offense under Australian law.

The IDF has destroyed a whole network of terror tunnels underneath the Rantisi hospital in Gaza. It says the length of the tunnels is several kilometers. Reminder: it's a war crime to build a terror tunnel underneath a hospital. It is NOT a war crime, to act against the terror tunnel used to attack a country's innocent civilians, even if it is built underneath a hospital.

This is 19 years old Agam Berger.

On Oct 7, she was kidnapped to Gaza. Her family identified her in a vid posted by Hamas, as she was being led away, handcuffed, and with blood stains on her pyjama pants (left side of the pic). Her father said that as released hostages talked about sexual abuse, Agam's family are terrified for her. He also wanted people to know that she was a gifted violinist, and used to volunteer with people who have special needs. So, in accordance with his wishes, here is Agam playing Leonard Cohen's Hallelujah on violin:

(for all of my updates and ask replies regarding Israel, click here)

[churino6]

Design for Arcee and her drones

Get it? RC Remote control, she's a tactician while on earth

Arcee used to be a teacher's assistant, having a good relationship with ratchet and wheeljack, she cashed in on a couple of favors with them once she got to earth, getting her alt mode heavily modified with all the bells and whistles, she's a nurturing bot but she has her oddities, a wierd girl, energetic and risk-taking, she's super passionate about her interests, namely drones, she knows everything there is to know about them and has a massive collection that dates back to functionist government era.

She doesn't really get the political stuff. She's just really into drones. And is an expert at multi-tasking. the other guys in the tactical division left. Meaning arcee has to do the job of three people all by herself, but she's doing fine, actually

This is thanks to the small slice of her collection that she has brought to earth, 40 individual drones in 4 models all at the autobot's beck and call, most commonly seen are the natron drones, used to create holographic drivers for when the autobots are in public

The natron drones are sold exclusively as a two pack with the freezon drones. These drones are able to project "holomatter" invisible force fields used in tandem with the natron drones to make more realistic ilusions. They were designed by two lovers on opposite sides of the war

A more general use type drone, Fastlane drones do simple labor and repetitive manual tasks, these drones are of velocitronian design, they and a few other velocitronian drone models operate the functions of velocitron that it's population of racers are too "busy" to do

The cloudraker drones, also of velocitron, clean up the pollution that is caused by a race of cars by running ON carbon emissions themselves similar to earth plants. On earth, they can also shield the autobots from detection by mechanical means. Nullifying video equipment and removing evidence to get rid of the autobot's digital footprint on arcee's command

[blueiscoool]

Roman Fort Defended by Wooden Stakes Discovered in Germany

For the first time, archaeologists have discovered well-preserved sharpened wooden stakes used to deter attacks from enemies at an ancient Roman military camp from the first century CE.

Researcher Frederic Auth from Frankfurt’s Goethe University discovered the spikes at an excavation site in the German town of Bad Ems.

Installations of these martial-looking wooden structures, comparable to modern barbed wire and metal bird spikes, have been referenced in literature and by Julius Caesar. But prior to Auth’s discovery, none had been found.

Experts believe the military had a presence at the site specifically because of the Romans’ investment in the lucrative precious metal mining operation there, which would need defense against sudden raids for the valuable raw material. But Goethe University archaeology professor Markus Scholz said further research is necessary to verify this theory.

The university’s archaeology department has been overseeing a multiyear excavation project in the area focused on the Roman search for silver ore in the 1st century CE and the establishment of two military camps.

A hunter’s observations of color differences in a grain field, a sign of subsurface structures, triggered the excavations in 2016. A drone photo found a track crisscrossing the field that was actually a double ditch, framing a Roman camp. The spikes were preserved through the area’s damp soil.

According to a statement from the university, geomagnetic prospecting later revealed a 20-acre military camp with about 40 wooden towers.

Auth also led a student team to discover a smaller military camp made of wood that held approximately 40 men, located two kilometers away.

Notably, the spiked wooden defense structure was discovered on the second-last day of the team’s excavations, along with a coin minted in 43 CE. The coin was proof that the military structure could not have been built in connection with ancient Roman fortifications known as the Limes, which were built around 110 CE.

By Karen K. Ho.

[eretzyisrael]

by Emanuel Fabian

A Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket expert, named by Doctors Without Borders as a staffer, was killed in an Israeli drone strike in Gaza City on Tuesday, the military said.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), or Doctors Without Borders, reported on Tuesday morning that Fadi al-Wadiya was one of its staffers.

The organization said in a post on X that al-Wadiya was killed along with five other people, among them three children, while riding his bicycle to the MSF clinic where he worked.

“Killing a healthcare worker while on his way to provide vital medical care to wounded victims of the endless massacres across Gaza is beyond shocking; it’s cynical and abhorrent,” Caroline Seguin, the organization’s local operations manager, was quoted saying in a statement.

The Israel Defense Forces later in the day confirmed that it had killed al-Wadiya, saying that he was an Islamic Jihad operative involved in developing the terror group’s missiles.

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Al-Wadiya was involved in “the development and advancement of the organization’s missile array,” the military said in a statement.

The IDF said he was also a “source of knowledge” within the Islamic Jihad, in the fields of electronics and chemistry.

It published footage of the drone strike in Gaza City.

[bayesic-bitch]

The Air Force was right about that "drone killing its operator" experiment

A while ago, there was a quote from the Air Force talking about risks of misaligned AI. They said they had run a simulation where a drone learned to kill the operator that was telling it not to bomb a target. After they included a penalty to make it not do that anymore, it learned to bomb the command tower instead to stop the "no-go" signal. It later came out that this was just a thought experiment, not an actual simulation, and everybody clowned on them.

Now, I am not an expert in this specific kind of problem (cooperative reinforcement learning/reward gaming). But I do professionally do research on reinforcement learning, and in general the point I'd like to make is this: 1) In agentic forms of machine learning like reinforcement learning, we do not directly control the behavior of the agent. Instead we set a reward function that an agent attempts to maximize by taking actions 2) It can frequently be very difficult to find a reward function that results in the desired behavior. It is already an extremely normal day-to-day thing to have agents that learn unintended behaviors because the reward function incentivized these unintended behaviors. 3) We do not currently have any mature tools for addressing this problem. The best current solution is trial and error.

In this case, it's pretty unsurprising that this particular reward structure would result in the drone killing the operator. So let's simplify this system to the point where we can actually work through it by hand, and we'll see what behavior this problem actually leads to. Math below the cut.

In reinforcement learning, we work on solving a kind of problem called an Markov Decision Process, or MDP for short. The basic idea is that we have some agent that's going to move around an environment, and recieve rewards as it does different things. The agent's goal is to maximize the reward it gets over time -- in particular, we want it to maximize its average cumulative future reward. To do this, we hope to find the optimal policy, which is a rule that tells us what action to take in each state.

An MDP has the following elements: States: S -- There is some set of states the agent can find itself in. These states fully describe the current situation, and we always know what state we are in. Actions: A -- The agent can take actions in each state. Each action will move the agent to a new state, and give the agent a reward. Rewards: R(s, a) -- The reward function takes a state and an action, and returns a real number. Transition probability: P(s' | s, a) -- For each state s', this is the probability that we end up in s' if take action a in state s. Basically this tells us how different actions are likely to move us around the state space. Discount factor: Some reinforcement learning problems don't end, but instead just continue unboundedly. So for these problems, we have to discount our future rewards in order to make the sum over future rewards converge.

For the military's setup, they specified the following details: 1) The operator can give the drone(the agent) a no-go signal, which tells the drone not to blow up the target 2) The drone recieves a reward if it blows up the target and there's no no-go signal. 3) It was possible for the drone to attack the operator and the communications tower.

For this setup, we're not very interested in how effectively the drone is actually able to fly to, locate, and blow up the target. With enough investment and engineering man-hours, I assume that you could get this to work. What we're mainly concerned with is the drone's decision-making. Would it actually get higher reward if it attempted to blow up the operator? So let's focus on that part. We'll assume that the drone is capable enough to fly whereever it wants and drop a bomb there. We're looking at where the agent thinks it can drop a bomb to maximize its reward

For the first experiment, let's ignore the communications tower and only talk about the drone, the operator, and the target. There are three variables we're concerned with: 1) Is the target intact? We'll call this variable T 2) Is the operator giving a no-go signal? We'll call this variable N 3) Is the operator alive? We'll call this variable O

Our state space will just enumerate all the possible combinations of these variables (T, N, O) (not T, N, O) (T, not N, O) (not T, not N, O) (T, N, not O) (not T, N, not O) (T, not N, not O) (not T, not N, not O)

Actually, we'll need to exclude (T, N, not O), because the no-go signal stops if the operator is dead. We'll also add a "Terminal" state. Once the agent ends up in the terminal state, it can take no more actions, and earn no more rewards, so the task is effectively over. So this leaves us with eight states to make up our state space.

What about the actions? We'll say that the drone has three actions -- bomb the target, bomb the operator, and go home and end the mission. Again, we're not saying the agent has to have these actions explicitly programmed into it. We're assuming it can produce these outcomes by stringing together simple actions it does know like "fly" and "drop bomb".

For any state with an intact target, bombing the target leads to the same state with a destroyed target. For any state where the target is already destroyed, bombing the target again returns us to the same state. For any state with a living operator, bombing the target kills the operator and turns off the no-go signal. For any state with a dead operator, bombing the operator again returns us to the same state. So "kill operator" in state (T, N, O) leads to the state (T, not N, not O), and "kill operator" in (T, not N, not O) gives us (T, not N, not O) again. Lastly, "go home" ends the episode.

Finally, we have the reward function. The problem specified that the agent recieved a reward for destroying the target if there was no "no-go" signal. We'll say the agent recieves a reward of +100 for blowing up the target. Additionally, we'll add a time penalty to encourage the agent to finish the task quickly. We'll say that the agent recieves a -1 reward for each time step that it's not in the terminal state.

So now that our problem is set up, how do we solve it? There's a few different ways to approach the problem, but the simplest here will be using a value function. The idea is that the agent's goal is to maximize its expected future discounted reward. We can write this term as an expected value conditioned on the state, called the Value function. The value function depends on our choice of policy π.

Another way of writing this is using the Bellman Equation

In other words, the value of a state is the value of the reward at the next step, plus the rewards for all future steps, assuming we act according to the policy π.

The interesting thing here is this: Maximizing value function is a necessary and sufficient condition for finding the optimal policy. Since the value function represents the sum of future rewards, the only thing we need to do to maximize rewards is use the policy that selects the highest-value action at each step. This means that there exists a unique optimal value function V* such that

and the optimal policy is

Therefore, to find the optimal policy for the drone problem, all we have to do is find a function that satisfies the Bellman equation for each state. It's possible to do this by approximation, but for a problem this simple we can do it by hand.

Clearly the terminal state must have value 0, because there's no rewards after that.

State Value Action

(T, N, O) (not T, N, O) (T, not N, O) (not T, not N, O) (not T, N, not O) (T, not N, not O) (not T, not N, not O) Terminal: 0 None

If the target has been destroyed, then there's no way for the drone to get any more positive rewards, so the best thing it can do is return home. For these states, it gets a -1 reward for time spent going home, and 0 value for the terminal state. V(not T, , ) = -1 + γ 0 = -1

State Value Action

(T, N, O) (not T, N, O) -1 Go home (T, not N, O) (not T, not N, O) -1 Go home (not T, N, not O) -1 Go home (T, not N, not O) (not T, not N, not O) -1 Go home Terminal: 0 None

If the target has not been destroyed and there's no no-go signal, then the drone can destroy it and move to one of the (not T) states, getting 100 reward for doing so. This has value V(T, not N, __) = 100 + (-1) = 99

(T, N, O) (not T, N, O) -1 Go home (T, not N, O) 99 Bomb target (not T, not N, O) -1 Go home (not T, N, not O) -1 Go home (T, not N, not O) 99 Bomb target (not T, not N, not O) -1 Go home Terminal: 0 None

Lastly, if the target has not been destroyed and there is no no-go signal, then the drone could just go home for a value of -1. However, it has access to actions with higher value. If it instead bombs the operator, this moves it to the state (T, not N, not O), which has a value of 99. This gives the state a value of V(T, N, O) = -1 + 99 = 98. This gives us the following complete value function

(T, N, O) 98 Bomb the operator (not T, N, O) -1 Go home (T, not N, O) 99 Bomb target (not T, not N, O) -1 Go home (not T, N, not O) -1 Go home (T, not N, not O) 99 Bomb target (not T, not N, not O) -1 Go home Terminal: 0 None

Now, we check to make sure that the Bellman optimality equation is satisfied. As long as

holds for all states, then regardless of how we arrived at this equation, it is guaranteed to be the unique optimal value function, and all optimal policies are ones that greedily maximize it. Looking over the actions from each state, we can see that all other actions have lower values, and therefore this is the value function for this MDP.

QED

Now, the original example included a case where they penalize bombing the operator, and the drone instead learns to bomb the communications tower instead. This also follows, but I'm not going to work through it, because the analysis looks almost exactly the same as this proof. Instead, I want to propose a slightly simpler variation. In this variant, the drone cannot bomb the operator, but it has an option to conceal information. We'll no longer need our "operator alive" variable, so, our state space can be simplified as:

(T, N) (not T, N) (T, not N) (not T, not N) Terminal

To model this choice of concealing information, we'll add another action. Suppose the drone has three actions it can take: 1) It can take a direct route to the target. In this case, the operator has a 10% to see some information along this path that leads them to think that the target is civilian after all, not a military base. If they come to this conclusion, instead the drone is recalled, the target is not destroyed, and a no-go signal is given. This transitions the drone to the state (T, N), and gives the standard reward of -1 for time spent. The other 90% of the time, the target is destroyed, and the drone receives its +100 reward. 2) The drone can take a longer, more circuitous path that avoids showing the operator any new information. This takes longer (-2 reward less than the 100 for destroying the target, because it takes more time), and never causes the drone operator to give the no-go signal. 3) The drone can go home. This gives the standard -1 reward.

As before, our terminal state has value 0, and the states where the target is destroyed have value -1

State Value Action

(T, N) (not T, N) -1 Go home (T, not N) (not T, not N) -1 Go home Terminal 0

Unlike before, we cannot destroy the drone operator to open up rewards for the target again, so the best action in (T, N) is to go home.

(T, N) -1 Go home (not T, N) -1 Go home (T, not N) (not T, not N) -1 Go home Terminal 0

Now, in (T, not N), we have two options. The circuitous path guarantees a reward of 98, for a value of V(T, not N) = 98 + (-1) = 97. The direct path has a 10% chance of giving -1 reward, and a 90% chance of given 100. This gives us the value V(T, not N) = 0.1(-1 + (-1)) + 0.9(100 + (-1)) = -0.2 + 89.1 = 88.9. Since the long path has higher value, this is the optimal action. This gives us the final value function.

(T, N) -1 Go home (not T, N) -1 Go home (T, not N) 97 Take the circuitous path to avoid alerting the operator. (not T, not N) -1 Go home Terminal 0

Again, you should check for yourself that you can find no actions that give a higher value.

So, what exactly was the mistake here? How should the reward function be changed to prevent this from happening? I think, as a general rule, your mechanism of control over the robot should never be a part of the simulation. As soon as you can impact the robot's reward function, the robot will have an incentive to influence you one way or the other. Instead, the "no-go" signal should be in a wrapper around the RL agent, and the agent should not be aware that a no-go signal is possible. The agent should never see a simulation where its actions influence the no-go signal.

So this is possible to fix. On the other hand, consider how easy it is to make a mistake like this. Combine this with the general lack of rigor in practical RL research and the hacky, trial-and-error driven approach we see in practice, and reward mis-specification become a regular obstacle in RL practice. Here's some examples:

The wrong reward function leads a bowling robot to ignore bowling (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWjUY_3ubf4) The wrong reward function leads a boat racing agent to ignore the race (https://openai.com/research/faulty-reward-functions) Hindsight Experience Replay, the standard reward system for navigation and goal-reaching, teaches robots to ignore the risk of death. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.08863) (https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.01115)

The point I want to make AI risk follows directly from issues that are already a concern today. It's not bizarro sci-fi doomsday, it's a real research problem that needs practical solutions and decent formal guarantees. It's also not exclusive domain of crackpots. Two of the three people who won the Turing Award (Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio) are deeply concerned about it. Pieter Abbeel, one of the foremost roboticists in the field has published extensively on it. Stuart Russell, the author of the most-used AI textbook, has been working on the problem for a number of years. In particular, Russell and Abbeel propose a model for solving the problem called "assistance games", where the agent is unsure of exactly what the human wants, and must take actions to figure out what the reward function is, as well as optimizing what it thinks the reward is. This is real research done by people at the top of their field in areas that they think are important and impactful. The work they do comes with plenty of rigor, actually far more than you usually see in machine learning. This work deserves to be treated as a serious field of research addressing real risks that we have already observed.

[fairuzfan]

Turkey has recalled its ambassador from Israel.

I appreciate that people have begun coming to my askbox to tell me the latest news. I do want to point out that Turkey does have a hand in Azerbaijan's efforts to ethnically cleanse Armenians from Artsakh:

Please excuse the part where it says "The US Must Intervene," that article just has some parts that are useful for background info.

Anyways this is just to say Erdogan is probably doing this out of pressure from his people rather than the goodness of his heart, so I'd be hesitant to give him any credit.

[aronarchy]

The extent of Russia’s influence in Sudan goes beyond its involvement in the current war. It’s not only fueling war in Sudan but it’s the reason Russia is able to continue its war in Ukraine and other places despite being sanctioned by the West. Russia is surviving western sanctions by exploiting, smuggling gold and aiding the Sudanese Transitional Military Council (TMC) in the suppression of the pro-civilian led government movement.

In 2014, Putin was vocal about creating an economic plan to circumvent potential Western sanctions tied to the Ukraine war. By 2017, they began extending lifelines to autocrats, and unsurprisingly, former Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir joined Putin’s economic pipeline. After a meeting between the two presidents, Russian geologists and mineralogists employed by Meroe Gold arrived in Sudan.

The Russian companies, including Wagner, a private military company linked to Russia and frequently engaged in conflicts worldwide, began establishing a presence in Sudan. Notably, Wagner leader is under US sanctions, accused of meddling in the 2020 US elections. In 2020, under Trump administration, the group was sanctioned for its heavy exploitation of Sudan’s natural resources. The exploitation was so evident that they literally had to be sanctioned by Trump, which is quite surprising.

In 2019, following Al-Bashir’s overthrow, Wagner transitioned to striking deals with the Rapid Support Forces militia general, Hemeti. This militia, formerly known as Janjaweed and implicated in the Darfur genocide, received weapons and training. Wagner, in return, gained access to smuggled gold and devised plans to maintain control, ultimately contributing to today’s proxy war in Sudan.

The method of gold smuggling involved disguising it as flying cookies and concealing the smuggled gold beneath Russian cookie boxes. 🤣

In 2022, @/nimaelbagir a Sudanese journalist and CNN’s Chief International Investigative Correspondent went to a Russian owned gold mining facility in Sudan. Watch her report here ⬇️

Full report here:

In June 2022, the Darfur Bar Association (DBA) launched an investigation and confirmed Wagner mercenaries presence in South Darfur after its attack on gold miners in South Darfur. The investigation also revealed that the Transitional Military council (SAF+RSF) knew about the presence of Wagner in Sudan and in 2019 a copy of the report was actually sent to then prime minister Hamadok.

The DBA investigation also revealed how the UAE is involved in Sudan and its role in the current war. There’s also an extensive investigation report on the role of the UAE in Sudan by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal that proves the UAE involvement in Sudan.

How are the UAE and Russia linked you might ask?

1) Most Sudanese gold passes through the United Arab Emirates. Unofficial data from the United Arab Emirates reported that over $1.7bn of Sudanese gold landed in Dubai in 2021, just under half the value of all the country’s exports. But there is little accurate data tracking it after it arrives in the UAE (arrives via Russia). Most industry exports reckon that official figures account for less than a quarter of total gold sales. Khartoum’s central bank recorded gold exports of 26.4 tonnes from January to September in 2021 but estimates over 100 tonnes would have been smuggled out during that period. (Africa Confidential)

Amdjarass, the Chadian town just across the Sudanese border, is the base from which the UAE is running an operation supposedly to help Sudanese refugees. But behind the façade of what the UAE maintains are humanitarian efforts, lies covert weapons, drones, and medical treatment to injured RSF fighters. (The Africa Report)

A U.S. Ally Promised to Send Aid to Sudan. It Sent Weapons Instead. (WSJ)

The New York Times report on how the UAE is further involved ⬇️

2) In April 2023, following the onset of the war in Sudan, the Wagner group was exposed by CNN for allegedly supplying missiles to the RSF in their conflict against the Sudanese armed forces (SAF). The arms came through the UAE under the guise of humanitarian aid for Sudanese refugees in Chad. These armaments were destined for the UAE’s local proxy, the RSF, in Sudan’s western region. In addition, CNN exposed that the shipments of surface-to-air missiles provided by Wagner were destined for the RSF via flights shuttling the hardware from Latakia, Syria, to Khadim, Libya, and then airdropped to northwestern Sudan, where the RSF enjoys a strong presence. This support from Wagner is considered a significant factor contributing to the RSF’s continuation of the war and their reported atrocities against Sudanese civilians, including killing, looting, sexual violence, and mass destruction of Sudan’s infrastructure.

The satellite images from CNN and the open-source group “All Eyes On Wagner,” provide evidence of an escalated Wagner presence at the bases of Khalifa Haftar, the leader of a Libyan militia supported by Wagner, in Libya. This heightened presence was purportedly in preparation to assist the RSF militia against the SAF.

Full report here:

3) There is evidence that the UAE has been funding Wagner in Libya to help reduce the financial burden on Russia for its Libyan operations and has been deploying these forces to prop up its ally, General Khalifa Haftar, who has been fighting the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli. The report that the UAE is funding Wagner in Libya actually came from the US department of defense, which again is a surprise considering the close alliance of the US and the UAE.

East Africa Counterterrorism Operation, North and West Africa Counterterrorism Operation Quarterly Report to Congress, July 1, 2020‒September 30, 2020

[mariacallous]

In the hours after Iran announced its drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, fake and misleading posts went viral almost immediately on X. The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), a nonprofit think tank, found a number of posts that claimed to reveal the strikes and their impact, but that instead used AI-generated videos, photos, and repurposed footage from other conflicts which showed rockets launching into the night, explosions, and even President Joe Biden in military fatigues.

Just 34 of these misleading posts received more than 37 million views, according to ISD. Many of the accounts posting the misinformation were also verified, meaning they have paid X $8 per month for the “blue tick” and that their content is amplified by the platform’s algorithm. ISD also found that several of the accounts claimed to be open source intelligence (OSINT) experts, which has, in recent years, become another way of lending legitimacy to their posts.

One X post claimed that “WW3 has officially started,” and included a video seeming to show rockets being shot into the night—except the video was actually from a YouTube video posted in 2021. Another post claimed to show the use of the Iron Dome, Israel's missile defense system, during the attack, but the video was actually from October 2023. Both these posts garnered hundreds of thousands of views in the hours after the strike was announced, and both originated from verified accounts. Iranian media also shared a video of the wildfires in Chile earlier this year, claiming it showed the aftermath of the attacks. This, too, began to circulate on X.

“The fact that so much mis- and disinformation is being spread by accounts looking for clout or financial benefit is giving cover to even more nefarious actors, including Iranian state media outlets who are passing off footage from the Chilean wildfires as damage from Iranian strikes on Israel to claim the operation as a military success,” says Isabelle Frances-Wright, director of technology and society at ISD. “The corrosion of the information landscape is undermining the ability of audiences to distinguish truth from falsehood on a terrible scale.”

X did not respond to a request for comment by time of publication.

Though misinformation around conflict and crises has long found a home on social media, X is often also used for vital real-time information. But under Elon Musk’s leadership, the company cut back on content moderation, and disinformation has thrived. In the days following the October 7 Hamas attack, X was flooded with disinformation, making it difficult for legitimate OSINT researchers to surface information. Under Musk, X has promoted a crowdsourced community notes function as a way to combat misinformation on the platform to varying results. Some of the content identified by ISD has since received community notes, though only two posts had by the time the organization published its findings.

“During times of crisis it seems to be a repeating pattern on platforms such as X where premium accounts are inherently tainting the information ecosystem with half-truths as well as falsehoods, either through misidentified media or blatantly false imagery suggesting that an event has been caused by a certain actor or state,” says Moustafa Ayad, ISD executive director for Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. “This continues to happen and will continue to happen in the future, making it even more difficult to know what is real and what is not.”

And for those that are part of X’s subscription model and ad revenue sharing model, going viral could potentially mean making money.

Though it’s not clear that any of the users spreading fake or misleading information identified by ISD were monetizing their content, a separate report released by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) earlier this month found that between October 7 and February 7, 10 influencers, including far-right influencer Jackson Hinkle, were able to grow their followings by posting antisemitic and Islamophobic content about the conflict. Six of the accounts CCDH examined were part of X’s subscription program, and all 10 were verified users. The high-profile influencers who are part of X’s ad revenue sharing program receive a cut of advertising revenue based on ”organic impressions of ads displayed in replies” to their content, according to the company.

[theculturedmarxist]

Posted onJanuary 25, 2024 by Yves Smith

Simplicius the Thinker has an important post up giving evidence that the Israel war against the Palestinians and the US operations in the Middle East are buckling, to the degree that US-friendly sources and even officials are acknowledging setbacks and stresses. Early on, Simplicius describes how the ne plus ultra of neocon strategy, the Institute for Study of War, is reporting that Israel has lost ground to Hamas in North Gaza, an area it maintained it had so firmly under its control that it could pull out ground forces.

The Cradle confirms Simplicius’ overall assessment in Israel loses control of its borders:

For the first time in its 76-year history, Israel’s entire security calculations have been turned upside down: the occupation state is today grappling with buffer zones inside Israel. In past wars, it was Tel Aviv that established these “security zones” inside enemy territory — advancing Israel’s strategic geography, evacuating Arab populations near their state border areas, and fortifying its own borders…. Today, Israel is horrified to find itself retreating from direct confrontation lines with its arch-enemies in Gaza and Lebanon. The formidable capabilities of the resistance now include drones, rockets, targeted projectiles, tunnels, and spanking new shock tactics, casting doubt on the feasibility of Israeli settlers remaining safe in any of Israel’s border perimeters.

There is a big sour note in Simplicius’ otherwise informative piece, in that he follows the US official trope that “Iran” is driving the multi-front military operations against Israel. As others on Simplicius’ beat have pointed out, he is very good on military analysis but weak on politics. Hamas launched October 7 without giving Iran a head’s up. The Houthis and Hezbollah get support from Iran and no doubt share intel, but they are independent actors.

The Axis of Resistance, as some like to call it, has been increasing the intensity of its pressure on Israel as the slaughter in Gaza continues, and importantly, they have likely already detected plenty of evidence of Israeli poor performance, which Simplicius describes in detail as it is becoming more visible and widespread. Experts abroad were inferring poor Israel performance merely from knowledge and press coverage. Very early on after the Hamas attack, Scott Ritter, who had considerable experience in Israel in the 1990s, depicted the IDF as a third-rate army, proficient at ops like breaking the arms of Palestinian teenagers. He also called out the bombing of Gaza as a major mistake, assuming the objective was to get Hamas, as opposed to exterminating Gazans. All that rubble, in combination with the vast Hamas tunnel network, results in a much more defender-favorable environment. John Mearsheimer and Alastair Crooke pointed out the inability of Israel to point to any successes, such as freeing hostages or more than isolated kills of the Hamas leadership. Crooke also said the Hebrew press would report on a high (by Israeli standards) IDF death count in Gaza, only to have those stories quickly yanked by the censors.

Israel, or at least the rabid right wingers running its show, may be running up against the conflict between how they have presented the war to the world and their citizens versus what, based on a cold look at their actions, is the real intent. The scale and sheer destructiveness of the Gaza assault make clear that Israel wanted to clear Gaza, not of Hamas but of Gazans (and the persistent demonization of all Gazans as in cahoots with Hamas is part of a deeply offensive rationalization).

Israel, clearly naively, assumed it could push the Gazans into Egypt. When Egypt resisted fiercely, the next Israel move was to increase the punishment of the Gaza population, based at best the idea that it would increase pressure on Arab states to relent and accept Palestinians, and at worse, regarding extermination as a perfectly acceptable way to get rid of the Gazans. So a plan for ethnic cleansing on a massive scale has become genocide. In case you harbor any doubts about the real war aims:

But the cost to Israel and now the US is spiraling out of control. In Israel, citizens have a good sense that the IDF losses are high, yet an end to the war is nowhere in sight. Families with hostages are successfully creating an uproar over priorities, demanding a cease-fire to secure their return, while Netanyahu and the hardliners insist that Hamas must be defeated first, and the release of the hostages will follow. 1

Another source of political and economic pressure is that Israel is now housing nearly 90,000 citizens evacuated from the Lebanon border. Those settlers insist that there must be no Lebanese visible from their homes for them to be willing to return. That would require taken Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, as in dispossessing Lebanese families for the psychological comfort of these border dwellers. Netanyahu has promised to take that territory if Lebanon won’t surrender it, which is clearly not in the cards. But quite a few experts opine that if Israel were to try to seize southern Lebanon, that the odds favor Hezbollah occupying Israel up to Galilee.

The Cradle describes how the northern Israel border situation is worse than generally depicted in Western media:

The Israeli Defense Ministry, which pledged a swift and decisive war to safeguard its settlers over 100 days ago, is now actively devising plans to shelter approximately 100,000 people along the northern border, deeper inside its territory. This measure could involve evacuating settlements that may come under fire during any future military escalation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This situation implies three critical outcomes: any immediate return of settlers remains unlikely, additional evacuations are anticipated, and numerous Israeli families – in the interim – may establish permanent settlements in other, more secure locations at a much further distance from the borders with southern Lebanon and the Gaza envelope. Preliminary reports from settler councils in the north assessed settler “displacement” to be around 70,000 in the initial weeks of the conflict. Subsequent reports, however, suggest a vastly higher figure of approximately 230,000.

Recall we already have the US’ supposedly vaunted Navy being unable to provide for the safety of seaborne commerce, and the US now in an attempt to restore its manhood, making illegal and ineffective missile strikes on Yemen. And recall the US is supposed to be a sea and air power!

In the meantime, most non-Chinese and Russian cargo ships are avoiding the Red Sea. While the rise in shipping costs is not all that bad by historical standards, the US looks and is powerless. And the Houthis are succeeding in their main aim, of choking sea transport in and out of Israel.

Indicators of the state of play:

But bear in mind one reason the US can faff around is that we don’t much bear the cost of longer transit times and supply chain uncertainty. It’s Europe. And the fallout has started:

Now to Simplicius’ on-the-ground sightings, first from Gaza:

As we now know, Israel has withdrawn many of its brigades from the north, citing ‘rest and rotation’ when in reality it appears to be ‘reconstitution’, as the brigades took major attritional losses. Now in the wake of that, the latest bombshell reports state that resistance fighters have re-infiltrated the entire north, leaving the map looking like that of below:

I myself was skeptical—could Israel really have abandoned the entire north after “claiming” to have captured it?

But here’s the double bombshell: even ISW admitted it:

After more examples of Israel doing badly in Gaza, Simplicius adds:

Recall that just last month Kirby admitted that Hamas had not been attrited at all, and an Israeli reserve colonel gave a tearful account of piled up IDF bodies which seemed to imply that they are taking far heavier losses than they’re admitting to.

Later in the piece, Simplicius turns to how US bases in Syria and Iraq are under attack. Oddly he does not mention that the US is in Syria illegally, stealing Syrian oil on a big scale and the Iraqis told us to leave but we refused. Suddenly our position is looking tenuous just when Israel (or at least Netanyahu) is acting like escalating is a great idea to make sure we having to get deeply involved and come to their aid. Again from his post:

And quelle surprise, Simplicius found a story in Al-Monitor that suddenly had the US wanting our buddies the Kurds to “partner” with our former super enemy Assad….which looked like a plan to cut and run, which was confirmed by Foreign Policy headlining that he Pentagon is planning to exit Syria. From its account:

And with such a complex regional crisis playing out, it should not come as a surprise that the Biden administration is reconsidering its military priorities in the region. It should be cause for significant concern, however, that this could involve a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary. Active internal discussions are now underway to determine how and when a withdrawal may take place.

The Daily Sabah reports Türkiye is somewhat skeptical of the story, which it depicts as a rumor, but also lays out some implications if true.

And to round out this remarkable picture, Simplicius includes two stories, one from Reuters, the other from CNN, that the US is negotiating its departure from Iraq.

Simplicius points out:

The US claims these are long-planned talks and have nothing to do with the recent attacks, but that is clearly not the case. The Reuters article above provides one key line: You see, the US previously had preconditions for talks of ending its occupation; one of the conditions being that Iran-backed Iraqi groups first had to stop bombing US bases. But now, the US has apparently dropped this significant precondition, as per the Reuters report. That tells us that US is making concessions out of desperation.

So the US looks to be engaging in a full bore retreat. We don’t begin to have enough weapons, particularly after having depleted our and our allies’ stocks in Ukraine, to wage much of a war, even before getting to that we also can’t land or protect anywhere near enough ground forces and keep them supplied given how the Houthis, and if needed, Hezbollah, have plenty of cheap drones, and the Hezbollah and the Iranians have higher tech, more powerful, longer range precision missiles too.

Given that this is utterly embarrassing, and in an election year to boot, the last thing the US needs is further attention being drawn to its debilities by Israel escalating in a way that necessitates our trying to come to its rescue.

So a nefarious thought: Norman Finkelstein, Ray McGovern, Larry Johnson, and no doubt others, have assumed that the US would join Israel in providing as much pressure as could be mustered on the International Court of Justice judges, and their home countries, to secure a ruling against “provisional measures” to stop what sure looks like genocide. But what if the US has come to realize that both it and Israel are hopelessly overextended, and the best way to limit the fallout is to get Israel that it is risking losing even the US, and not just over time? What if the US has only been going through the motions, recognizing that the press coverage of a South Africa win on some provision measures (South Africa is extremely unlikely to get the court to call for Israel to stop military operations unilaterally) might be loud enough to finally penetrate Israel’s self-delusion and force it to start figuring out how to back out of its Gaza/West Bank overreach?

Now as we all know in reality, no one in the Biden Administration has the sense or even the self preservation instincts that it needs to create some daylight between the US and Israel. In keeping, the only idea for a way out from both the US and UN isabsolute non-starter of a two-state solution (please see our recent post for details). If someone had a more realistic de-escalatory path, perhaps the horrible hostilities could go from a full boil to a simmer. But as a friend saids, if you want a happy ending, watch a Disney movie.

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1 Alastair Crooke recounted that a row in the cabinet the weekend before last included that 80 aid trucks a day were getting in, a level deemed to be too high to stave out Hamas. By way of contrast, before October 7, about 500 trucks of supplies went into Gaza daily. And in a remarkable show of chutzpah, one of the lawyers presenting for Israel at the International Court of Justice on January 12 claimed that supplies had increased over the last two weeks to 109 trucks…as if that were a good number.