#Google Maps has been extremely helpful in this process

[bekandrew]

I absolutely need to share this bizarre Army Recruitment Office Freudian slip from Google reviews.

[hailruth]

Hello! I came across this blog while looking at menorahs and wanted to ask why Messianic Judaism/Messianic Jews are disliked. I used to be part of the Messianic Jewish circle but escaped as of a couple of months ago as it didn’t seem to correct preserve history and was using the Bible for fetishizing extreme punishment (like the Hebrew Roots/Hebrew Israelite movements). I understand they wanted to preserve historical traditions but something still felt very off and predatory about it. What are the red flags one should look out for when this group tries to indoctrinate someone?

disclaimer: i'm writing this on mobile so there's a high chance of spelling/grammar mistakes. look back for any future edits or comments with resource or corrections. tumblr kept deleting some very important paragraphs and i'm too frustrated to make this a very polished post.

okay, first things first: messianic judaism never has been and never will be jewish. they are not accepted by any jewish denominations and the christian consensus is that they are christian. institutions such as the u.s. military (where messianic "jewish" chaplains have to wear the insignia of the cross meant for christian chaplains and not the ten commandments for jewish chaplains) and the supreme court of israel agree that they are christian. judaism is not just a religion, it is an ethnicity and a tribe. the majority of messianics have no connection to judaism in the slightest. people who have converted to actual judaism have gone through a lengthy process of assimilation into this ethnicity. their language, calendar (and very conception of time), diet, clothing, body, community, family, etc. is changed forever once they convert. you can't just decide to be jewish, as messianics have done. the fact that some messianic "jews" are ethnically jewish is incidental and means nothing for the jewishness of the religion.

i was so thankful when this post came out about a year ago because it condenses the main points i've been making for a while: "messianic christian red flags" (by jewitches on instagram). it has a list of things to look out for which can help you spot messianic "judaism" masquerading as actual judaism. but i will still explain my arguments in this post. i also recommend jews for judaism.

however, there's still some points i want to outline in this post. most importantly: the goal of messianic "judaism" is not to preserve any kind of history, but to target jews for conversion to christianity. there are claims that it grew out of a movement of jews who converted to christianity but kept onto some jewish practices (which would make them apostates). but this is absolutely not what the movement is, it's very clear that it actually came to be in order to eradicate judaism (by converting all jews to christianity). as the post i linked above points out, two good examples are that the board of missions to the jews became chosen people ministries and the hebrew christian alliance of america became the messianic jewish alliance of america. these were christian orgs whose entire purpose was to target jews for christian conversion, who rebranded to messianic orgs because the function of messianic judaism is to convert jews.

the messianic movement and organizations target jews via extremely deceptive and predatory tactics. the biggest issue that every jew faces when trying to google anything about judaism (which is often the case for jews who already don't know much about their religion and don't have a community with a rabbi to go to) is messianic sources doing their absolute best to look jewish. often times, you have to scour a site providing "information" on jewish holidays, traditions, etc. until you finally encounter something about "yeshua." the post linked above is very helpful for avoiding these sites. this isn't just a digital phenomenon. messianic churches are often disguised as synagogues and mark themselves as such on sites like google maps (i know there have been initiatives to get their labeling changed to that of churches on these sites). there are countless examples of these churches pretending to be synagogues in order to lure in and hopefully convert jews who do not know better.

messianics constantly pretend to be real jews in order to infiltrate jewish communities. i don't have to explain how weird it is to pretend to be of a certain ethnicity in order to force your way into their rituals and lives. this ties into the entire fake synagogue issue from the previous paragraph, but extends far further than that. a few years ago, for example, a jewish politician invited who she thought was a rabbi to pray at an event. this "rabbi" ended up being a messianic. jews across the country were, of course, deeply disturbed by this and it was condemned. messianics aren't stupid, they know what we think and what they are doing, this is an intentional action. there are countless examples of this and it is never anything but vile.

if you want to pretend that judaism is this perfect precursor to jesus whose entire function was to predict his arrival, you're going to have to smash it to unrecognizable bits in order to build anything that'll support such a cause. it's never going to work. many core beliefs of christianity are antithetical to judaism, making the two fundamentally incompatible and different religions. saying otherwise is ahistorical and disrespectful to the thousands of years of separate cultural development of these two religions.

i haven't proofread this and refuse to do so at the moment, but i don't want to keep you waiting on a response. i hope this can help you understand why jews are very much not fans of messianics. if you have any further questions/something isn't clear, feel free to ask whenever.

[girlfriendsofthegalaxy]

tuesday again 8/20/2024

a little light this week bc i had a fairly wretched week, medically speaking

listening

hozier's nobody's soldier would have been on every 8tracks mix for every character. THEEEEE blorbo song of all time to the point i am already annoyed at the thought of seeing it on every spotify mix. fuckin owns tho. very fun mod sixties heist taste to the horn arrangement

-

reading

thank you philip.

polished off the Marauders (2019-2022) comics. i liked the first volume way more than these three-- they didn't quite deliver the same quality of art or swashbuckles-per-minute. also this was probably not a great choice for someone who has forgotten what little she once knew about the xmen, even though they came at the beginning of a reboot.

why did i read these? mostly bc they were readily available or with short wait times at my library and my bestie is making me watch all the xmen movies. a girl gets curious about comic books sometimes

surprisingly, i came across this one from the Pocket integration on the firefox new tabs

McDonald likens the functions of Spotify to Google Maps. “Google Maps doesn’t do the exploration for me, but it’s helpful if I go somewhere,” he says. Rather than taking us on guided tours, it provides the tools for us to navigate somewhere new. Much as it shows us what’s nearby and how to get there, and flags notable landmarks others have visited, Spotify helps us access most music, lists global listening trends, and introduces us to artists similar to those we already know. But it’s communities that help us home in on a destination Spotify can help us explore.

part two of breaking down infamous academic paper mill Hindawi and why it was bought by Wiley anyway bc they did seemingly no due diligence, bc as a whole they do very little actual work in the publishing process.

i have included a very long quote bc it is one of only two things that made me genuinely laugh out loud this week (the other was phil unsticking a claw from the couch by backflipping herself out)

One issue of Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing from 2022, edited mostly by Hamurabi Gamboa Rosales, took an average of about 20 days to go from initial submission to revision submission. This is not unlikely, it’s impossible. The easiest way to explain this is with an analogy. Say there’s a pothole outside your house, and you call the council. You tell them ‘there’s a big hole in the road outside my house!’ The person at the other end, rather than tiredly telling you to fill out a form - which is what councils do all over the world, in my experience - instead yells ‘MOTHER OF GOD! WE’RE RIGHT ON IT!’ Twenty minutes later, a bitumen truck comes HURTLING around the corner of your street at full send, with the road workers hanging out the back of it, the driver leaning on the horn and yelling ‘GET OUT OF THE WAY! POTHOLE!’ They pull up outside your house, and you see the brakes go hot. But the guys don’t even wait for it to stop, they jump off while it’s slowing down, and they grab pry bars and a burner and a kettle of bitumen, and they start hammering out the edges, pour the bitumen and start slamming it with hammers almost at the same time. In about six minutes, the hole is filled and flattened, and they admire their work for about four hundred milliseconds and SCREAM off the way they came. No sooner has the truck disappeared, then your phone rings - and it’s the council worker from before. ‘POTHOLE! *pant* *pant* FIXED! Happy to be of service!’ *click* That’s how likely the entire editorial process taking 20 days is.

-

watching

i don't understand why the third xmen movie isn't named x cubed. it extremely is not their last stand there are like a dozen more movies to go. gun to my head i could not tell you what happened in this one. whatsherface did look good as hell though

and now for the movie i actually want to talk about, Monkey Man (2024, dir. Patel). imdb says:

An anonymous young man unleashes a campaign of vengeance against the corrupt leaders who murdered his mother and continue to systematically victimize the poor and powerless.

i am so so so lucky that my favorite kind of fight scene — fast, brutal, right spaces with improvised weapons-- is fashionable. pour it DIRECTLY into my open mouth

i think i generally agree with a broad sweep of reviewers here when i tell you that this movie is gorgeous and grossnasty at the same time, there are a lot of ideas that aren't all quite resolved, and i am much more interested in why it has a hell of a lot of ideas (part of why they don't all get resolved).

patel's first movie, it feels very much like a movie of someone who isn't sure they'll be able to do another one, so throw everything you've got in here. a sort of famously rocky production and shoestring budget, but you would not know it. the club scenes are especially dripping in glitz and, like many stage productions, have a lot of clever editing and strategic deployment of mirrors and repeats. there's a fight scene with hanging mirrors near the end where the mirrors can't have been more than fifty bucks each but it looks SO fucking sick.

i am much more willing to go to bat for this movie and ignore some of the rough edges bc it is so refreshingly earnest, and despite the style references, is very focused on being its own thing. at some points it's going to feel like The Matrix (1999, dir. the Wachowskis) bc every movie made in a post- The Matrix (1999, dir. the Wachowskis) world is going to feel a little bit like The Matrix (1999, dir. the Wachowskis). or like when the above gif happened in the movie it did not make me want to turn it off and go watch the first john wick.

people who live in india or are part of the diaspora are a little cranky about the political parties of the film, which had to be neutered for release. while i don't think i would have grasped all the nuances even if we did have the original cut, i think it's likely some of the characters would have resolved a little cleaner if that original intent was still there.

why did i watch this? i think patel is easily as hot as tumblr darling mifune. while drafting this post i got distracted sooooooo many times trying to pick the perfect gif. some of them are too hot!!!

-

playing

fallow week

-

making

just stayin alive! just livin the fuckin dream!!!

[pkmnirl]

How do you go about getting ideas for arcs? I’m struggling to figure out what I want to do with my character :(

Great question! This happens to be one of my absolute favorite parts of writing and pkmn irl itself. I've always been more of an ideas guy myself. I hope you don't mind but I decided to turn this into a bit of an overall tutorial for planning and writing arcs. Feel free to ask for any specifics because I could delve into my personal process for arc brainstorming, but I was admittedly writing this before getting ready for work and this post was getting kinda long haha

Knowing where to draw inspiration from can be a good place to start. It's wonderful to be inspired by music, a movie or tv show, a book, or even other people in the community and their writing. Ask yourself what elements of that thing draw you in. What do you like? What would you maybe do differently? I must mention though to be respectful of the work other blogs have put into their writing. Being inspired is a wonderful thing, lifting exact details or passages is not. If you're unsure, there's no harm is asking!

The most helpful thing I can tell you right off the bat is that you want to find out how to brainstorm. In schools they'll often try to teach you ways of brainstorming and outlining to structure your essay writing, if you're lucky they might even mention that there are multiple ways you can do this. The ones in school never worked for me personally, so for a long time I assumed brainstorming and outlining was a complete waste of my time and would launch straight into my writing drafts. But as I wanted to write more complex things and I wanted to indulge in more creative writing, I found myself getting stuck all the time. The truth is brainstorming is a helpful tool, but you have to know what type of brainstorming works best for you. Flowcharts, bullet points, stream of consciousness, word clouds, moodboards, drawings, whatever it is that gets your creative juices flowing. In my experience it works best to remember that not every one of these elements will make it into the final arc. You want to get your ideas down first and trim the excess later. I personally pay for a program (Milanote) that allows me to brainstorm in the methods that work best for me, but by no means do you have to pay for a program to do this. Pen and paper works just fine.

The next thing you wanna do is establish what you want your arc to do. Not every arc has to be a grand character development, but all arcs do something. No matter how small that something may be, something has to change as a result. Maybe your character meets a new person, obtains a new Pokemon, gets a new scar and a story to tell their friends, or maybe all they got was a t-shirt. If you already had a loose concept for your arc this can help you hone it. You can start asking yourself, "how does my character reach this point?" and work up to that. Map out what you think your character would do when dropped into a particular situation. This can also help you to establish the tone you want your arc to take. Is it silly and lighthearted or is it more serious and high stakes? Refer to the stakes tag post about proper tagging.

It can help to conceptualize your arc as a series of events rather than a single event. This allows you to understand how many posts you may need to split the arc up into, how much time the arc may take, or other hard to sort details.

These things ramp up when you start to incorporate more people into your arcs. Planning with your fellow writers is extremely important and that requires a lot of communication. Some writers prefer to do what we call pre-writing, which is typically you and the other writers get together and write out the posts in advance. This gives people the chance to look over each other's writing and make edits before the posts go live. Planning discords are useful for keeping things organized, but google docs or other collaborative writing programs can work just as well if those better suit your needs. Organize who is posting what and generally at what time, especially if the post involves other people's characters.

Remember all of this is for fun! These are not hard rules you need to follow. You should not force yourself to write things you do not like for the sake of others or for an imagined audience. Write what you want to write.

[phladydoor]

Alright. Time to talk about my TIT experience.

This is not really about the show itself. This is about me and my health and the shit I had to do to get myself in that seat tonight.

TL;DR: I’m disabled and had to work extremely hard to be at the show and I’m proud of myself and I’m yappin about it!!!!

Okay now for the long-winded version.

When my friend grabbed us tickets back in June, I was just starting the process of addressing a mobility issue that had completely altered my life in recent years.

I have chronic back pain. It came on very suddenly and severely one day a little over two years ago now and it has been an uphill battle to receive the care I need ever since. I can walk only short distances and stand for only a few minutes before needing to sit and rest. It is debilitating and isolating and painful.

But still, I told my friend to get me a ticket. I had four months to prepare. I had faith in my brand new physical therapy team and spine doctor. Four months seemed like such a long time back then.

Things did not go as planned. Physical Therapy was overwhelming and difficult. I pushed myself to my limits, trying desperately to make it work. I blamed myself when I plateaued. The spine doctor said we should consider other options.

The first other option was a series of nerve ablations. The procedures would potentially reduce my pain level and allow me to return to physical therapy with better results. We started the process, but things moved slower than I’d hoped. Two weeks ago I was supposed to have my final test procedure before the real deal. My insurance denied it on a technicality. They will likely continue to deny it even upon appeal. I will have to return to my doctor to discuss the next other option.

So there I was. 14 days out from TIT and with my back barely better than it was when the tickets were purchased. I was facing down the very real possibility that I would not make it to the theatre. I spent a lot of time sobbing in therapy sessions, lamenting my limitations, and asking “why me?”

I talked to friends (there’s nothing better to alleviate a shame spiral) who encouraged me to look into mobility aids that could help me get to the show. I want to make it clear — never once have I judged another person for the use of a mobility aid. There is simply nothing worth judging about someone using a tool to make their life easier. But, when it came to accepting my own disability, I will admit that I had been resistant to the idea of using one. Not to get too in the weeds, but I’m in a larger body and the stigma associated with a fat person using a mobility aid vs a thin person? Is a very different beast.

But I did purchase one - a cane I could lean on that can also be transformed into a stool when I need to sit and rest.

I spent hours researching the venue — finding our seats via Google map and planning when and where I could take a rest on my cane/stool (my stane? My cool?). I would forgo the merch line. I’d have my friend drop me off at the wheelchair ramp before parking the car so I could get into the theatre without needing to take multiple flights of stairs.

Another fun little medical issue I deal with is chronic anemia, and let me tell you. I cannot recommend it. There is nothing quite like the wave of nausea that hits you when you’re desperately trying to catch your iron-poor, de-oxygenated breath. So I knew I would have to take things slow, and I checked in with my friend a week before to make sure they knew what support I might need.

I’m rambling now. I am, much like Dan, a catastrophic yapper. The point is I tried my very hardest to attend to every variable. I wanted to go to this tour so goddamn bad.

Going to see this show is the first thing I’ve done for myself in two years that isn’t about shouldering the burden of my condition all by myself. I have struggled with codependency in the past (what hasn’t this bitch struggled with, you ask yourself) and as such I spend a lot of time trying to be independent at the cost of… well… everything else. It’s a problem. I’m aware. I swung from codependency to refusing to ask for help even when it’s reasonable.

But that’s what this night had to be all about — leaning on friends. I had to communicate my needs. I had to put my health and my joy first. I had to push past the shame of existing in my current body.

And I did. I fucking did it.

I’m so sore and my back hurts and on the way out I did very nearly puke from the anxiety and the aforementioned anemia nausea. But it doesn’t matter. Because I used my little cane and took the space I needed and utilized my support system and I watched two gay idiots be so gay and such idiots on stage for multiple hours and I had fun!!!!!! And I did it for myself!!!!

I doubt myself frequently and often automatically. I grew up in a family who made me feel incapable of doing anything right. I was infantilized and dismissed and ignored. And tonight I was the person little me needed me to be. Tonight I fucking did it. I am so proud of myself and so happy I pushed through all this bullshit to see those gay men dance.

[thelonesgroup]

Creating Connections with Community Pages

As brokers and agents, we are all tied to our communities and there are so many great ways to get involved too. Some of you reading this today volunteer at shelters, support boys-and-girls clubs, are part of a Rotary Group or community lodge, or maybe you care for aging pets or are a member of a local activity group. These are all great things you can do in person that build your presence within the community and expand your sphere of contacts – and help you feel good too! But how do you illustrate connections to your community to people outside of it, like to someone who is relocating from another part of your state?

One of the things that websites (and social media) do for us is expand our presence and message further than they could ever reach without them – and today I want to focus on how you can demonstrate community connections in a way that isn’t just about you, but that gives your website visitor something of value too.

The Evolution of the Community Page

Since my company has been building real estate websites for nearly two decades, I have seen a lot of changes. Back in the early aughts (2003/2004) a community page was, at its best, a brief gazetteer. A paragraph or two, half-a-dozen photos maybe. Ambitious agents would include some market stats, but there wasn’t any automation to keep them current, so they quickly became dated and for many agents it was just too much to maintain data like that.

As time went on, pages got more interesting. Companies like TrendGraphix would create tools to let agents add self-updating market charts to their websites. Social media like Instagram would emerge and give agents a way to stream current photos from their account. A website with an MLS connection could even show current local listings. It was better, but there was a lot of room for improvement.

Today, thanks to the work of IDX companies, huge data brokering services like Atom Data and Home Junction, local review sites like Yelp, Google Maps, Great Schools, artificial intelligence, and more, community pages are easier than ever to create, maintain, and can provide impressive value to website visitors.

Local Maps

This is crucial. Many people don’t have a great sense of where a place is, so whether you are detailing a county or a local neighborhood, include a map. I love interactive maps that let me zoom-in-and-out. Extra points if that map can show me where local schools, parks, and shopping areas are. This is extremely useful for buyers who want to know where they will be able to make a quick grocery stop, to identify the school their children may attend, determine commuting times and so much more. When we build websites, we always include these features!

Market Information

No modern community page is complete without up-to-date market information. Buyers and sellers both appreciate this info. It helps you, the real estate agent, start the process of setting expectations even before you have met. It helps potential referring agents from out of the area identify potential neighborhoods (and you) as viable for their moving clients. Information about recent sales, average price, and home ownership rates are a great starting point. If you want to really provide something of value, offer the option of downloading a full market report. Our websites can generate these on demand, which is a great way to capture potential leads from your website, for a quick handout to mail, or to take to a listing presentation.

Community Description

Of course, every community page should have a description. These days, a short one is just fine since we are going to include a lot more visual info, but if you are talking about a small community then a little more detail can go a long way too. If you use AI to generate your community description, don’t forget to fact check it! We like to include some statistics in our community descriptions, but you have to be careful that they don’t go stale. To keep ours fresh, we use the same data sources that automatically update our market information.

Schools

For well over a decade, we have been able to include school information with websites and without undue effort. Great Schools has made this easy, whether you go-it-alone or have a professional build your website. It’s just as relevant as it has ever been and every great community page should have it.

Demographics

Buyers want to know if a community is the right fit for them. Sellers are curious how their community has changed. For you, the agent, having a reliable source of demographics makes for endless, easy content for sharing online, and adds something to your website that most other agents just don’t have at all.

Local Businesses

Beyond supporting local businesses, which can often use all the help they can get, showcasing local stores and services really integrates you into the community. Locals love seeing their favorite spots featured. Potential clients from further away can get a taste of what is available in your area and maybe even try something out on a visit. We connect our client’s real estate websites to Yelp’s services to showcase popular dining, bars and coffee shops, shopping centers, gyms and self-care, and pet care services.

Other Details

Slideshows or connecting an Instagram stream of local photos have huge visual value. Including a connection to your MLS where visitors can browse inventory is a must – yes, it’s not what brought them to your website, but they will stay longer and search engines love it too. It’s also important to have lots of opportunities for people to connect with you. Season your community page with these opportunities so that as your visitors look around it is easy for them to reach you with a question. If you are blogging about your area, include a section on your community page of recent blog posts. I would put blogs towards the bottom to give visitors something easy to move on to after they have engaged with your community info.

Closing Thoughts

If you have been reading through this and thinking, "I have no idea how I would even start to add some of these ideas," then stop thinking and take action by giving us a call, emailing us at solutions@thelonesgroup.com or by visiting us online and scheduling a free consult. For examples of actual community pages, try here, here, or here. Your community pages are a powerful, critical part of connecting with new clients online and illustrating your local connections and knowledge.

By Denise Lones CSP, M.I.R.M., CDEI - The founding partner of The Lones Group, Denise Lones, brings nearly three decades of experience in the real estate industry. With agent/broker coaching, expertise in branding, lead generation, strategic marketing, business analysis, new home project planning, product development, Denise is nationally recognized as the source for all things real estate. With a passion for improvement, Denise has helped thousands of real estate agents, brokers, and managers build their business to unprecedented levels of success, while helping them maintain balance and quality of life.

[treatmentmorpheus8]

Morpheus8 Redondo Beach

How to Spot a Reputable Morpheus8 Clinic (and Red Flags to Avoid)!

Morpheus8 has become a go-to treatment for skin tightening, collagen stimulation, and facial rejuvenation. However, choosing the right morpheus8 Redondo Beach clinic is crucial to achieving safe and effective results. With so many providers offering this treatment, how do you know which clinic to trust?

This guide will help you spot a reputable Morpheus8 clinic and identify red flags to avoid.

What to Look for in a Reputable Morpheus8 Clinic

Certified and Experienced Providers

A reputable clinic should have licensed professionals performing the procedure. Look for dermatologists, plastic surgeons, or trained medical aestheticians with experience in Morpheus8 treatments.

Ask about their credentials and how long they’ve been performing the procedure.

Positive Reviews and Testimonials

Check online reviews as a trustworthy clinic will have consistently positive feedback from satisfied patients. Look for reviews that mention professionalism, safety, and noticeable results. Ask the clinic for before-and-after photos of their actual clients.

Proper Consultation Process

A high-quality Morpheus8 clinic will offer a detailed consultation before scheduling your treatment.

They should assess your skin, discuss your goals, and explain the procedure, risks, and expected results. Beware of clinics that rush you into treatment without a thorough evaluation.

State-of-the-Art Equipment

Morpheus8 is an advanced treatment that requires FDA-approved devices.

Ensure the clinic uses genuine InMode Morpheus8 technology and follows proper sterilization and hygiene protocols. A reputable clinic will prioritize safety and use top-tier equipment.

Transparent Pricing and Packages

A good clinic will provide clear pricing information upfront. While morpheus8 body treatment is an investment, avoid clinics that push expensive add-ons or hidden fees.

Look for providers that offer fair pricing and package deals without high-pressure sales tactics.

Red Flags to Avoid

Lack of Proper Credentials

If a clinic does not provide details about their practitioners’ certifications or medical background, it’s a major red flag; always verify the qualifications of the person performing your treatment.

Suspiciously Low Prices

While looking for the cheapest option is tempting, extremely low prices can indicate inexperience, outdated equipment, or unsafe practices. If a deal seems too good to be true, it probably is.

No Clear Before-and-After Results

A reputable clinic will be able to show you real patient results. If they cannot provide before-and-after photos or direct you to client testimonials, they could lack experience or have poor results.

Poor Communication or Pushy Sales Tactics

If a clinic rushes your consultation, pressures you into buying a package, or doesn’t answer your questions clearly, it’s a warning sign.

A trustworthy provider will prioritize your comfort and understanding.

Unhygienic or Unprofessional Environment

A clean and professional setting is essential for any cosmetic procedure. If the clinic looks disorganized, lacks proper hygiene standards, or feels unprofessional, it’s best to look elsewhere.

Final Thoughts

If you are looking for Morpheus8 near me, Skin Works Medical Spa is a trusted choice for safe, effective, and personalized treatments.

With experienced professionals, state-of-the-art technology, and a commitment to patient satisfaction, they provide top-tier Morpheus8 services.

Schedule a consultation with Morpheus8 Long Beach today and take the first step toward healthier, tighter, and more youthful-looking skin!!

Find Us On Google Map ( Skin Works Medical Spa )

[speed-seo]

An Overview of the Market in Cyprus Cyprus has been an extremely popular destination for ex-pats looking to relocate and make the island their home. The country offers a lot of advantages for those who are interested in buying real estate property on the island. The largest city and capital of Cyprus is Nicosia, which has a population of just over 200,000 people. The second-largest city in the country is Limassol with a population of around 164,000 people. Paphos is the third-largest city in Cyprus with a population of just over 100,000 people. The island itself has a total estimated population of around 1.207 million people. How Big is Cyprus? Image by: Google Maps The island has a total land area of around 9,251 square kilometres (3,571 square miles). Cyprus is located in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and is bordered by Syria to the north, Lebanon to the west and southwest, Israel to the south and southeast, Egypt on its east side as well as a small portion of Turkey. Cyprus is a small country with a huge potential for growth. The economy of the country is mainly based on tourism, financial services and shipping. There are many different climate zones in Cyprus, with four seasons throughout the year: summer (May to October), autumn (October to December), winter (December to February) and spring (February to May). How Stable is The Real Estate in Cyprus? The real estate market in Cyprus is considered one of the most stable and secure in Europe, with a very low-interest rate. The Cypriot real estate market has grown tremendously over the last decade, mainly due to the growth of tourism in Cyprus. The government has made it very easy for foreigners to purchase real estate property in Cyprus by introducing new legislation, which allows non-residents to buy properties without having to go through the lengthy and costly process of getting a Cypriot residency. Why invest in Cyprus - Investment opportunities The number of foreign investors has grown considerably since Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004, with many Europeans choosing to buy property in Cyprus as an alternative to the UK, where house prices have risen sharply. In this article, we will look at the main reasons why you should consider investing in Cyprus property. We will help you understand the Cyprus real estate market and give you a better idea of what to expect if you decide to buy property in the country. Which are the 8 most important reasons for investing in real estate in Cyprus? - The Cyprus market is one of the most stable in Europe and has been so for a number of years. - Property prices have remained fairly steady over the past few years, with some areas experiencing a small increase in prices. - There is an excellent choice of properties to choose from, including apartments and villas with sea views. - The Cyprus property market has been unaffected by the recent economic crisis and is still considered a safe haven for foreign investors. - Property prices in Cyprus are considerably lower than in other European countries such as the UK or France. - There are many areas to choose from, including the coastal towns of Limassol and Larnaka as well as inland Nicosia. - There are a number of incentives for foreign buyers in Cyprus, such as tax breaks and the ability to purchase property from a foreign company. - In recent years, Cyprus has become known as a popular destination for ex-pats from all over the world. Now, with this exciting introduction, let's get to the meat of the article. Real Estate Best Definition Real estate is a term used to describe the physical property and land that is used to produce income. It can include anything from housing and apartments to commercial and industrial buildings. Real estate also includes the rights and obligations of the client, the agent's evaluation of the property, professional conduct, convenience, notary public service, and document templates that simplify procedures such as signing documents and real estate in general. How Important is Data for Real Estate? The real estate market is a data-driven industry, in order to make the best decisions, agents and brokers need access to accurate, up-to-date information on properties, prices and trends. The advent of the internet has only made this more true. Nowadays, almost all real estate transactions are handled electronically, and buyers and sellers can access a wealth of information online. Real Estate Data Analytics & Market analysis Transaction volume and value by district (2021) Image Source: Department of Lands and Surveys (DLS), PwC Analysis  Market analysis and data, especially for real estate, are usually not freely available in Cyprus. It can be hard to find reliable data and market analysis on the Cypriot property sector. A lot of this information is available in Greek and even then, it is often hard to find. Once this data is found, it is often unclear and hard to interpret. The data is usually in a PDF format or worse, an image file (such as JPG) that can't be searched. This data can be used to inform business decisions about where to invest money in new property developments, for example. By analyzing trends in sales prices, vacancy rates and other indicators, businesses can make more informed choices about where to put their money. Real estate has always been a data-driven industry, but in recent years the amount of data available has exploded. This new type of data, known as "Big Data", allows companies to make better decisions, such as which property to build and how to price it. In addition, this data helps agents serve their clients more efficiently and provide a more tailored experience for buyers and sellers of real estate. In today's market, homebuyers do research online before they even look at the real estate market. These searches lead to website searches that can be tracked and generate client data. Real estate agents looking to expand their client base can use this data to find potential client profiles and increase sales. You just need to know what methods to use and how to get the best numbers. Here are some ways you can make better use of real estate agent data when the opportunity arises: Investing in real estate data is big business Anyone who sells real estate knows that the right client and the right timing are critical to developing a business. To increase leads, look at the information that tells you which consumers are most likely to buy a home in the future. Networks like Zillow and Trulia collect data from online searches and offer real estate sellers digital advertising space and more detailed website features. Companies like SmartZip and Buyside analyse Big Data to help real estate agents target potential buyers. These companies use the seemingly unmanageable amount of consumer data to gain insights that can predict where homeowners will list their homes, who high-income renters are likely to buy a home from, or which households have access to credit. Experian is a company that offers information that can be used for potential lead generation, such as its income targeting reports. Real estate leads discovery through free data Not every real estate agent can afford to pay for leads that may or may not result in a sale. If you are looking for clients that fit your demographics and local market, free sources of information can help ensure you have enough resources. Data from property records, such as where someone has lived and for how long, US Census Bureau data and City-Data.com are also freely available and can help you stay up to date on the demographics of a neighbourhood, improving your chances of effectively targeting the market.  Search for your target audience Focusing on small niche areas of the real estate market can sometimes be the most effective way to get your message to the people who need it most. In your search for potential clients, keep the following in mind: In addition to searching for specific neighbourhoods and cities, there are several other ways to search for potential clients. For example, you can use a tool like Google's Keyword Planner to see what keywords are most commonly searched for in your area of interest. You can also search for the most common questions asked by people in your area of interest. Are there different types of real estate? Yes, there are many different types of real estate. Some of the most common ones include: - - Residential and commercial property - - Sale and lease - - Land, house, and building - - Local and international Each type of property has its own characteristics that can make it suitable for different people. For example, detached houses are usually larger and more expensive than flat buildings. On the other hand, flat buildings can be a good option for people who want to live in smaller spaces or invest in real estate. The fact is that there are many different types of real estate. And if you are planning to market your real estate business, get into the real estate business, or simply find the best value you can ask for your property, you should know how to choose the right type of real estate for your needs. Residential and commercial property Residential property is a property where people live, such as houses and flats. Commercial real estate is shops, restaurants and office buildings. In either case, a real estate agent will help you find, buy, rent or sell a property. There are no legal restrictions on foreigners buying property in Cyprus and you can buy a house just as easily as a local. Note, however, that the buyer must not have a criminal record and must meet the requirements. In Cyprus, the property market is booming as prices have risen considerably in recent years. This is due to the increasing demand for property by foreign buyers, especially from Greece and Russia. In recent years, the number of people moving to Cyprus has increased significantly due to the financial crisis in their home countries. Sale and lease Leasing is like renting a property where the owner transfers the use of the property to the tenant in exchange for money. on the other hand, the sale of a property is the transfer of ownership from one entity to another in exchange for money. The difference between leasing and selling should not be confusing, since there are many similarities between the two. The main difference is that leasing will not be responsible for any repair or maintenance of the property while selling a property means that you have to pay all expenses. The tenant (leaseholder) owns and uses the property during the term of the lease, but does not own the property. The seller loses possession and the right to use the property when the sale process is completed. The tenant (leaseholder), on the other hand, cannot transfer his rights to another person unless he obtains permission from the landlord (lessor). Commercial leases are also common and give the tenant the right to use the space for business purposes. Leasing and selling are two different ways to make money from property. Land, house, and building The land is the most basic type of real estate and refers to the natural features of a geographic area, such as mountains, rivers, and forests. House is a man-made structure that is used as a place to live or work. A building is a man-made structure that is used for other purposes, such as a store or factory. Local and international International real estate is a global industry, which has seen a lot of changes in recent years. Real estate is a very lucrative business and has been attracting investors from all over the world, who are looking to invest their money in safe investments. Cyprus's real estate market is a great example of how this industry has evolved in recent years. The real estate market of Cyprus is a very attractive investment opportunity for many investors, who are looking to invest their money safely and with great returns on the investment. With local real estate, you'll be more familiar with the area and what it has to offer in terms of amenities and attractions. You'll also have an easier time getting around, as you'll already know your way around. However, international real estate can come with some tax benefits, as well as opportunities for investment. Additionally, if you're looking for a change of scenery, an international property might be just what you're after. What is C2C in real estate? C2C in real estate stands for "customer to customer." It is a term that is used to describe the process of a customer buying or selling a property to another customer without the use of a middleman or broker. C2C also describes certain marketing trends in the real estate industry. In this type of transaction, buyers and sellers are connected through a digital platform, such as the internet or a mobile app. This allows for a more direct connection between the buyer and seller, and it often results in a faster sale. The C2C (Contract to close) Do NOW model This is a model that can be used in the closing process. It's important to note that this model is not for every situation and it will work best with specific types of transactions, such as home sales. The C2C (Contract to close) model is becoming more and more popular in the real estate world, as it helps buyers and sellers to get the property they want more quickly and efficiently. The goal of the C2C (Contract to close) model is to move quickly and smoothly through the buying process, minimizing potential risks and maximizing chances for a successful closing. The key to success with this model is communication and transparency between all parties involved. By following the proper steps and guidelines, you can successfully complete your own contract-to-close transaction using the C2C (Contract to close) model. Why real estate startups are moving from B2C to C2C Real estate startups are moving away from B2C to C2C because of new trends in the industry. These new trends include, but are not limited to, the following: - - A growing interest in the sharing economy and collaborative consumption - - The decreasing popularity of traditional brokerages - - The increasing demand for data and analytics - - The increasing availability of technology to create new marketplaces - - The growing interest in the real estate industry from investors and startups - - The increasing interest from investors in real estate startups Why C2C in real estate is important? The C2C (consumer to consumer) market is growing in popularity as it becomes more well-known. This market is cost-effective for both the buyer and the seller, and the number of products for sale by consumers is steadily rising. C2C is an appealing business model for retailers due to the popularity of social media and other online channels that allow buyers and sellers to connect more easily. Real Estate in Cyprus In Real Estate marketing, it is important to understand the Cyprus real estate market. The island of Cyprus is divided into two parts, the Greek Cypriot side and the Turkish Cypriot side. This division has led to a lot of political and economic issues that have affected the real estate market in Cyprus. The Greek Cypriot side is an EU member state while the Turkish Cypriot side is not. Now the strongest marketing is mainly focused on the EU Cypriot market side. This is due to the fact that most of the buyers are from Europe and they prefer to buy a property in an EU member state. The Turkish Cypriot side has been left out in the marketing. The Greek Cypriot side is the most populated area in Cyprus and it has a strong economy. Real Estate is Booming in Cyprus! The real estate market in Cyprus is growing rapidly, with more and more people investing in property. The real estate and construction sector are one of the key pillars of the economy, contributing 17% to the country's GVA. However, the pandemic disrupted growth in 2020, with a 19% decrease in the number of properties transacted and a 32% decrease in transaction value. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic and later in the year the Cyprus Investment Programme (CIP) terminated, the Real Estate and Construction sector's GVA output dropped marginally (1%) during 2020. This highlights the resilience of the sector and its importance to the overall economy. The growth in real estate transaction activity observed over the past years was disrupted in 2020. The total volume and value of properties transacted in Cyprus through the DLS recorded a significant drop during 2020 compared to 2019. Why Real Estate is Booming in Cyprus? This was mainly attributed to the following: 1. From January to May 2019, the market experienced an influx of transactions from foreign buyers mainly arising from the anticipation of the revisions in the CIP investment criteria (which were effected from June 2019 onwards). 2. The spread of the pandemic, which resulted in businesses and individuals deferring investments in the face of physical restrictions and increased economic uncertainty, exacerbating the prevailing reduced levels of activity, observed throughout 2020. Cyprus Real Estate Fast Statistics Specifically, the total number of properties transacted during 2020 reached 14.000, compared to 17.200 in 2019, representing a 19% decrease. In transaction value terms, an even sharper drop was observed, with total transactions reaching €3,0bn during 2020, indicating a reduction of 32% (2019: €4,4bn). Source: Real Estate Full Year Review 2020 Best 10 real estate brokers in Cyprus that offer an exceptional customer experience The best real estate agents in Cyprus are the ones you need to contact first. They are the ones who can provide you with all the information you need to buy a property in Cyprus. We tell you the 5 best real estate agents in Cyprus: 1. The Plaza Real Estate Limassol: The Plaza Real Estate Limassol Address: Plaza Estates Ltd.Amathountos 20, Agios Tychon, Cyprus This is a very popular real estate agency in Limassol. They have been in business for over 35 years and know everything there is to know about the Cyprus property market. Plaza Real Estate Limassol is a very well-known name in Cyprus and that is why many people turn to them when they want to buy a property. The Plaza Real Estate Limassol has been awarded as the best real estate agency in Limassol for many years. This is due to their dedicated work and excellent customer service. The Plaza Real Estate Limassol has a large team of professionals who can help you buy a property in Cyprus. They are all very experienced and know everything there is to know about the market. Visit their website for more information: PlazaCyprus.com Plaza Real Phone Number: (+357) 70006466 2. Altamira Real Estate Agency Altamira Address: Altamira Real EstateMegalou Alexandrou 1, Latsia 2235, Cyprus Altamira Cyprus real estate agent has had a strong presence in the market for many years and is considered an expert in the field of real estate. The company enjoys a good reputation and the experience of its staff is among the best in Cyprus. This agent also offers a range of services to meet your needs, so do not hesitate to contact them. You can also visit the company's website for more information: altamirarealestate.com.cy Altamira Cyprus Phone Number: (357) 22696500 3. REInvest Real Estate Cyprus REInv Address: REInvest Real EstateNikis Center, Kyriakou Matsi 11-7th Floor, Nicosia With over 25 years of experience in the property market, they are also the leading real estate agency in Cyprus. They have built a network of real estate professionals who know the property market and will guide you through the entire process from start to finish. URL: reinvest.com.cy REInv Phone Number: (357) 22477600 4. Read the full article

[consagous12]

15 Useful Flutter Libraries For Mobile App Development

Flutter is Google's child. The open-source framework builds captivating and user-friendly UI designs for web and mobile app development. Its functionality and ease of creating apps have won developers' hearts, making Flutter the latest tech attraction.​

Let's first understand the meaning of libraries.

A library is a collection of pre-written codes and programs developers can use to optimize the process of software development. They are standard codebases that are gateways to thoroughly functional software at scale.

This article presents a lot of 15 Flutter libraries for successful Android, iOS, and web application development.

We have considered several factors such as functionality, popularity, and the most updated resources for  efficient mobile app development.

Let’s begin.

15 Useful Flutter Libraries

1. Cupertino icons

Use: Cupertino icons are used by Cupertino widgets in Flutter app development. They are the default asset icon based on iOS style icons.

Explanation: Cupertino apps are Apple or iOS styled apps with a classic look and feel of the iOS framework. Every mobile app development company can use the Cupertino library to code in a standard iOS design language based on Apple's user interface guidelines.

2. Flutter Bloc

Use: BLoc can separate your presentation and business logic. A developer can write business logic in a BLoc file. BLoc designs new UIs using a given event and a state.  

Explanation: BLoc stands for Business Logic Object Components. It is a popular design pattern library in Flutter development.

Android and iOS designers significantly promoted the MVC model. The example includes the Model holding the information type, the View showing the information from the Model, and the Controller remaining in the middle to operate and control both. This MVC model has been used in variation in BLoc.

3. Animations

Use: Pre-built customizable animations for exclusive user experience.

Explanation: Fade, slide, and size transitions are the most common Flutter animations. The Animation framework in Flutter depends on Animation objects. App development companies can either fuse these movements in their app's built capacities or utilize the animations as the basis of more complex transitions given to other software developments.

4. Flutter Local Notifications

Use: It consists of a Cross-platform plugin customizable for each framework for displaying notifications.

Explanation: Flutter local notifications are a boon to every cross-platform app development company. Notifications are an excellent way to lure users back to the app. Local notifications originate from the app itself. The library consists of a plugin to help localize, schedule, and display notifications for the user's device.

5. Flutter Slidable

Use: It offers a slidable list of items inside the app. The user can dismiss these directional slide options as per his will.

Explanation: This feature is an excellent time-saver in custom software development services; otherwise overburdens the developer with redundant and hectic tasks at hand. It makes the user design extremely user-friendly and immersive.

These Flutter Slidables are more than simple left or right swipes. Developers can experiment with-

1. Behind Motion 2. Draw Motion 3. Stretch Motion 4. Scroll Motion

6.  Flutter Native Splash

Use: Adds and customizes the default white native splash screen.

Explanation: This is a prevalent library that supports Flutter app development. Any top mobile app development company can customize the brief period of the app's first screen while loading the rest of its features, resources, and content. The default native splash screen is white. Developers can use a different color or splash image with it. The library supports dark mode, full screen, and platform-specific options.

7. Google Maps Flutter

Use: Integrating Google Maps in apps using Flutter development

Explanation: This flutter plugin helps implement Google Maps using a widget to your Android and iOS app development. It can automatically gain access to Google servers and respond effectively to users' gestures in identifying, locating, and marking the spots.

8. Permission Handler

Use: It provides a Plugin to request and check Cross-platform API

Explanation: Most operating systems limit the permission to download apps on the user's device. The developers must ask for the user's consent to enable installation even while the app is running. This plugin allows a cross-platform API that can automatically ask users' permission and update their status as soon as authentication is received. Flutter Plugin also provides a reason behind asking permission on Android operating systems.

9. Connectivity Plus

Use: Identify and configure network connectivity

Explanation: The flutter app development provides the most potent pre-programmed library to recognize web connectivity and adapt to the requirements. It works with both cellular or WiFi arrangements.

10. Webview Flutter

Use: Improves and maintains presentation of web pages on both Android and iOS.

Explanation: The Webview Plugin provides a seamless browsing experience for app users regardless of the operating system. It offers high flexibility to every web and mobile app development company in the USA and beyond, displaying the web content in the apps.

11. File Picker

Use: A library extension that allows the app to select single or native files from the native file explorer of the user's device.

Explanation: File picker is a beneficial resource to every mobile app developer. It supports multiple platforms for single or multiple picks. It provides valuable filtering support for media, image, video, or audio. Flutter's file picker also extends its support to custom file formats filtering like pdf, jpeg, zip, etc.

12. Pull To Refresh

Use: A library supporting pull-down refresh and pull-up load for Android and iOS.

Explanation: You might have refreshed your apps dragging down the screen on various apps. Although it is more common for Android apps, app development companies can also add this functionality to iOS. It supports horizontal, vertical, and reverse scroll views.

13. Just Audio

Use:  Supports various features for the audio player for different operating systems.

Explanation: Amongst various Flutter plugins, the Flutter ecosystem uses a variety of audio plugins to enable a smooth user experience. Just audio helps users play audio in the background while running other apps in the foreground. It also syncs the audio for Carplay, smartwatch, or any other device. Using this plugin, users can respond to the audio app using the controls on the lock screen.

14. Sign In With Apple

Use: Helps sign in with an Apple ID and retrieve credentials using Apple Keychain.

Explanation: This library is more popular with iOS app developers because it enables quick login into Apple and helps in using Keychain effectively. Sign in with Apple also supports the Android platform.

15. Google Firebase Crashlytics

Use: Helps identify and track dysfunctionality in apps in real-time.

Explanation: Google Firebase Crashlytics helps you prioritize and resolve app performance issues in real-time. It assesses the impact of app crashes on users on an ongoing basis and saves mobile app developers time to enable better development operations.   It's pretty easy to use and offers high-quality end-to-end support for troubleshooting emerging issues as and when they appear.

Wrap Up-

Are you thinking of using Flutter for efficient app development support?

Flutter is the most popular app development framework because of its low code requirements, multi-platform support, and built-in library of features that support a reliable ecosystem for app building.

If Flutter is your best option for development, Consagous Technologies is your best bet for a highly innovative mobile app design and development LA.

Connect with us to enthrall your users with avant-garde designs and performance-oriented apps.

[jcmarchi]

Using AI to expand global access to reliable flood forecasts

New Post has been published on https://thedigitalinsider.com/using-ai-to-expand-global-access-to-reliable-flood-forecasts/

Using AI to expand global access to reliable flood forecasts

Posted by Yossi Matias, VP Engineering & Research, and Grey Nearing, Research Scientist, Google Research

Floods are the most common natural disaster, and are responsible for roughly $50 billion in annual financial damages worldwide. The rate of flood-related disasters has more than doubled since the year 2000 partly due to climate change. Nearly 1.5 billion people, making up 19% of the world’s population, are exposed to substantial risks from severe flood events. Upgrading early warning systems to make accurate and timely information accessible to these populations can save thousands of lives per year.

Driven by the potential impact of reliable flood forecasting on people’s lives globally, we started our flood forecasting effort in 2017. Through this multi-year journey, we advanced research over the years hand-in-hand with building a real-time operational flood forecasting system that provides alerts on Google Search, Maps, Android notifications and through the Flood Hub. However, in order to scale globally, especially in places where accurate local data is not available, more research advances were required.

In “Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds”, published in Nature, we demonstrate how machine learning (ML) technologies can significantly improve global-scale flood forecasting relative to the current state-of-the-art for countries where flood-related data is scarce. With these AI-based technologies we extended the reliability of currently-available global nowcasts, on average, from zero to five days, and improved forecasts across regions in Africa and Asia to be similar to what are currently available in Europe. The evaluation of the models was conducted in collaboration with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

These technologies also enable Flood Hub to provide real-time river forecasts up to seven days in advance, covering river reaches across over 80 countries. This information can be used by people, communities, governments and international organizations to take anticipatory action to help protect vulnerable populations.

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Flood forecasting at Google

The ML models that power the FloodHub tool are the product of many years of research, conducted in collaboration with several partners, including academics, governments, international organizations, and NGOs.

In 2018, we launched a pilot early warning system in the Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin in India, with the hypothesis that ML could help address the challenging problem of reliable flood forecasting at scale. The pilot was further expanded the following year via the combination of an inundation model, real-time water level measurements, the creation of an elevation map and hydrologic modeling.

In collaboration with academics, and, in particular, with the JKU Institute for Machine Learning we explored ML-based hydrologic models, showing that LSTM-based models could produce more accurate simulations than traditional conceptual and physics-based hydrology models. This research led to flood forecasting improvements that enabled the expansion of our forecasting coverage to include all of India and Bangladesh. We also worked with researchers at Yale University to test technological interventions that increase the reach and impact of flood warnings.

Our hydrological models predict river floods by processing publicly available weather data like precipitation and physical watershed information. Such models must be calibrated to long data records from streamflow gauging stations in individual rivers. A low percentage of global river watersheds (basins) have streamflow gauges, which are expensive but necessary to supply relevant data, and it’s challenging for hydrological simulation and forecasting to provide predictions in basins that lack this infrastructure. Lower gross domestic product (GDP) is correlated with increased vulnerability to flood risks, and there is an inverse correlation between national GDP and the amount of publicly available data in a country. ML helps to address this problem by allowing a single model to be trained on all available river data and to be applied to ungauged basins where no data are available. In this way, models can be trained globally, and can make predictions for any river location.

There is an inverse (log-log) correlation between the amount of publicly available streamflow data in a country and national GDP. Streamflow data from the Global Runoff Data Center.

Our academic collaborations led to ML research that developed methods to estimate uncertainty in river forecasts and showed how ML river forecast models synthesize information from multiple data sources. They demonstrated that these models can simulate extreme events reliably, even when those events are not part of the training data. In an effort to contribute to open science, in 2023 we open-sourced a community-driven dataset for large-sample hydrology in Nature Scientific Data.

The river forecast model

Most hydrology models used by national and international agencies for flood forecasting and river modeling are state-space models, which depend only on daily inputs (e.g., precipitation, temperature, etc.) and the current state of the system (e.g., soil moisture, snowpack, etc.). LSTMs are a variant of state-space models and work by defining a neural network that represents a single time step, where input data (such as current weather conditions) are processed to produce updated state information and output values (streamflow) for that time step. LSTMs are applied sequentially to make time-series predictions, and in this sense, behave similarly to how scientists typically conceptualize hydrologic systems. Empirically, we have found that LSTMs perform well on the task of river forecasting.

A diagram of the LSTM, which is a neural network that operates sequentially in time. An accessible primer can be found here.

Our river forecast model uses two LSTMs applied sequentially: (1) a “hindcast” LSTM ingests historical weather data (dynamic hindcast features) up to the present time (or rather, the issue time of a forecast), and (2) a “forecast” LSTM ingests states from the hindcast LSTM along with forecasted weather data (dynamic forecast features) to make future predictions. One year of historical weather data are input into the hindcast LSTM, and seven days of forecasted weather data are input into the forecast LSTM. Static features include geographical and geophysical characteristics of watersheds that are input into both the hindcast and forecast LSTMs and allow the model to learn different hydrological behaviors and responses in various types of watersheds.

Output from the forecast LSTM is fed into a “head” layer that uses mixture density networks to produce a probabilistic forecast (i.e., predicted parameters of a probability distribution over streamflow). Specifically, the model predicts the parameters of a mixture of heavy-tailed probability density functions, called asymmetric Laplacian distributions, at each forecast time step. The result is a mixture density function, called a Countable Mixture of Asymmetric Laplacians (CMAL) distribution, which represents a probabilistic prediction of the volumetric flow rate in a particular river at a particular time.

LSTM-based river forecast model architecture. Two LSTMs are applied in sequence, one ingesting historical weather data and one ingesting forecasted weather data. The model outputs are the parameters of a probability distribution over streamflow at each forecasted timestep.

Input and training data

The model uses three types of publicly available data inputs, mostly from governmental sources:

Static watershed attributes representing geographical and geophysical variables: From the HydroATLAS project, including data like long-term climate indexes (precipitation, temperature, snow fractions), land cover, and anthropogenic attributes (e.g., a nighttime lights index as a proxy for human development).

Historical meteorological time-series data: Used to spin up the model for one year prior to the issue time of a forecast. The data comes from NASA IMERG, NOAA CPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Daily Precipitation, and the ECMWF ERA5-land reanalysis. Variables include daily total precipitation, air temperature, solar and thermal radiation, snowfall, and surface pressure.

Forecasted meteorological time series over a seven-day forecast horizon: Used as input for the forecast LSTM. These data are the same meteorological variables listed above, and come from the ECMWF HRES atmospheric model.

Training data are daily streamflow values from the Global Runoff Data Center over the time period 1980 – 2023. A single streamflow forecast model is trained using data from 5,680 diverse watershed streamflow gauges (shown below) to improve accuracy.

Location of 5,680 streamflow gauges that supply training data for the river forecast model from the Global Runoff Data Center.

Improving on the current state-of-the-art

We compared our river forecast model with GloFAS version 4, the current state-of-the-art global flood forecasting system. These experiments showed that ML can provide accurate warnings earlier and over larger and more impactful events.

The figure below shows the distribution of F1 scores when predicting different severity events at river locations around the world, with plus or minus 1 day accuracy. F1 scores are an average of precision and recall and event severity is measured by return period. For example, a 2-year return period event is a volume of streamflow that is expected to be exceeded on average once every two years. Our model achieves reliability scores at up to 4-day or 5-day lead times that are similar to or better, on average, than the reliability of GloFAS nowcasts (0-day lead time).

Distributions of F1 scores over 2-year return period events in 2,092 watersheds globally during the time period 2014-2023 from GloFAS (blue) and our model (orange) at different lead times. On average, our model is statistically as accurate as GloFAS nowcasts (0–day lead time) up to 5 days in advance over 2-year (shown) and 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year events (not shown).

Additionally (not shown), our model achieves accuracies over larger and rarer extreme events, with precision and recall scores over 5-year return period events that are similar to or better than GloFAS accuracies over 1-year return period events. See the paper for more information.

Looking into the future

The flood forecasting initiative is part of our Adaptation and Resilience efforts and reflects Google’s commitment to address climate change while helping global communities become more resilient. We believe that AI and ML will continue to play a critical role in helping advance science and research towards climate action.

We actively collaborate with several international aid organizations (e.g., the Centre for Humanitarian Data and the Red Cross) to provide actionable flood forecasts. Additionally, in an ongoing collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to support early warning systems for climate hazards, we are conducting a study to help understand how AI can help address real-world challenges faced by national flood forecasting agencies.

While the work presented here demonstrates a significant step forward in flood forecasting, future work is needed to further expand flood forecasting coverage to more locations globally and other types of flood-related events and disasters, including flash floods and urban floods. We are looking forward to continuing collaborations with our partners in the academic and expert communities, local governments and the industry to reach these goals.

[umichenginabroad]

Week 2: Wieners in Wien

Čau všichni! (Hello everyone!)

This week was filled with a ton of new adventure and exploration!

Morning runs

I love to run at home, so I decided to go on some morning runs this week to explore new areas of town and start my day off with some good energy. The weather was pretty mild this week, which called for a light jacket. I also brought a fanny pack to hold my phone in while I ran which was convenient, but I had to look up directions a couple times because I got lost. Nothing Google Maps couldn’t fix! I’ve included pictures of the view from the National Memorial on Vítkov Hill that I pleasantly stumbled across on my first run :)

Classes & Workload

Classes started up this week. Fortunately, besides the time I spent in class, I didn’t have to do much work for them. Most of my classes have weekly readings paired with quizzes, discussion posts, or short writing assignments. My architecture class also features walking tours before lecture to visualize the styles or periods we will be learning about that day. Database Management Systems counts as an upper level CS class, and I expect it to be more project and presentation based. We spent the first day setting up MongoDB, a document-oriented non-relational database system, as well as PostgreSQL, a relational database system. We will use these open source database management systems throughout the semester for SQL and noSQL (not only SQL) projects. 

The leadership class is also project based, and we’re split up into teams to work with local companies and integrate new ideas into their current practices. My group’s focus is Search Engine Optimization (SEO), working with the local Business Leaders Forum to improve their site’s visibility and traffic through advertising and content management. There haven’t been too many expectations established for this project yet, but I’m looking forward to getting a sense for what the company culture and work-life balance is here in Prague. 

Symphony

Grocery Runs & Cooking

Monday was my first time getting a full set of groceries for the week. I was intimidated at first, as I’d walked into multiple markets and noticed that very few things were written in English. So, the night before I prepared a grocery list and translated each item to Czech along with common phrases such as:

Máte…? (Do you have…?)

Kde je/jsou…? (Where is/are the…?)

můžete mi prosím pomoci? (Can you please help me?)

This turned out to be extremely helpful and necessary for me to find everything I needed (which I did!). I keep the list in my notes app so that I can access it with ease anytime I enter a store, even if I don’t have wifi or cellular. 

Czech grocery stores also have self checkout stations that you can interact with in a couple different languages, including English. However, like those in America, these self checkout stations tend to freak out when the scale mistakes you for incorrectly “placing/removing an item in the bagging area”. I had to call over a worker about 5 times before completing my checkout and she did not speak English, which made the process pretty frustrating. 

Budgeting

Creating a budget is one of the most difficult, but important, things to do while abroad. Being in the center of Europe, we all want to take advantage of Prague and explore everywhere, but travel is expensive and life within Europe is also expensive. Everyone has different financial circumstances and creating a budget helps me visualize where I stand in terms of my spending and financial goals. Fortunately, everyone has been respectful of the boundaries I have set up for myself, and of those by others, due to such varying circumstances. 

I began general expectations for my spending prior to arriving in Prague, but I waited to complete my spreadsheet once I knew realistically what my weekly expenses would be. I recommend this process because it gets you thinking about finances early, so you’re not in a bad spot later on in the trip, and it also adds flexibility to avoid setting an unrealistic budget in the beginning and feeling like a failure.

The main categories I have in my budget are Groceries, Restaurants, Entertainment, Local Transport, Flights and Trains, Lodging, and Shopping. All of which have independent expectations for spending, which factor into my overall budget.

By far the most expensive thing for me has been “Flights and Trains”. Prague being in the dead center of Europe is helpful because we can take an express train to neighboring countries like Austria, Germany, and Poland. However, cheap flights/trains, paired with housing accommodations and other essentials like meals, local transportation, and excursions, add up across multiple trips. I’ve always found the experiences to be worth it, but it’s important to carefully plan these trips before booking, to have clarity in what you’re about to spend. 

Unlike most of the people in my program, I booked a lot of my trips prior to arriving in Prague. The reasoning behind this is a combination of boredom in January and wanting something to look forward to, as well as coordinating with my friends at school/home to meet up in certain countries while abroad. The bright side is that I got pretty good deals for flights, but I have some fomo due to not traveling so often with the friends I’ve grown close with here.

Plzeň (Pilsen) Day Trip

The Institute for Study Abroad (IFSA) has coordinated a couple of day trips and one overnight trip within Czechia that are included in our program fee. Our first day trip was Friday to Plzeň, a city famous for its Pilsner beer. We toured the Pilsner Urquell Brewery, the largest brewery in the Czech Republic, and learned about their fermentation, brewing, and malting processes. What makes their beer so special is the local Plzeň soft water and Czech grown barley malt, two of the four ingredients that make up the golden beer we tried at the end of the tour! Personally, I dislike most beer and I wish I could say Pilsner was an exception but I cannot. Most people loved it though so it was not hard for me to find someone to finish my glass!

We also went on a scavenger hunt throughout the city center, learning more about its history and significance in historical Bohemia and WWII. At each location, we had to solve a riddle which would give us a 3 digit code used to unlock the next clue which guided us to the next landmark. Our group ended up winning so we got a cute little bottle of sparkling wine! The coolest things we saw on this tour were the highest tower in Plzen, which stood atop St Bartholomew's Cathedral with views of the whole city, and the Old Synagogue which was of Neo-Romanesque style built in the 19th century. Pictures throughout the hunt are included below!

Vienna Weekend Trip

This weekend three of my friends and I headed to Vienna, which is only a 4 hour train ride from Prague! We were advised by some kids in our program to buy tickets at the station the day of because they would be cheaper, and we listened, but they ended up being more than double the price of the tickets my friend purchased online for the same trip… rip. Now we know to buy train tickets in advance at the station or through a reputable site like Trainline or Omio. These have a small service charge, but tend to be much cheaper when bought in advance than tickets bought at the station. 

When we arrived in Vienna Saturday at 1pm, we headed straight to brunch. We find most of our restaurants by peering into cafes and seeing where the locals are at, and this method hasn’t missed yet. The food was amazing, with homemade pita, toast, hummus, and falafel. Throughout the trip we actually realized that Middle Eastern cuisine has a huge presence in Vienna. See some of our eats below!

We then headed to our AirBnB, right outside of the city center. We had to go into a sketchy gas station to get the key but the workers were super nice and explained how they knew the owners of the property we were staying at. Our next stop was St. Charles’s Church, which was incredibly beautiful from the outside, inside, and rooftop! I ended up getting a super bad bloody nose (the first of many…) and had to be escorted behind the altar to a private bathroom where I proceeded to clean myself up, oops. We then headed to Hofburg Palace, which had incredible gardens and views (see pictures below). Afterwards, we were hungry again and decided to stop by the Naschmarkt where we found the best Turkish Kebap I’ve ever had. A kebap is the same thing as a kabob, roasted meat that they put into a pita-like bread with cabbage, tomatoes, and sauces. We stopped for dessert by another local place and headed back to our AirBnB to chill. As soon as we got back I got another nosebleed, but I rallied and got ready to go out. One of my friends recommended the Bermudadreieck (Bermuda Triangle) area for bars; an extremely lively scene located in the historic center of Vienna next to the Jewish Synagogue! 

We woke up pretty early Sunday to start our day, and headed to the Viennese Holocaust memorial in the Jewish Quarter. Afterwards, we saw a cool church from afar and decided to check it out. We accidentally walked into the coolest Sunday Mass I’ve ever seen in my life at Stephen's Cathedral. Sounds from more than 12,000 pipes filled the church which only added to the beautiful aesthetic inside. We then headed to Palmenhaus for brunch, a former tropical house turned restaurant that overlooked one of the Habsburg Palaces. The food was great and rejuvenated me from all the lightheadedness caused by my nosebleeds. After lunch we left the city center and visited Schönbrunn Palace. Schönbrunn means “beautiful spring” and the HUGE property definitely lived up to its name. Around the palace lay gardens, pools, fountains, a labyrinth, a summer guesthouse, greenhouses, and statues (that we mimicked, see pictures lol). Finally, we finished off the tourism by going to the Kunsthistorisches Museum, which combined history and art in an amazing way. On the first floor were archaeological artifacts from Greece, Egypt, and Bohemia, and on the second were paintings from many astounding artists like Velázquez, Rubens, and Raphael. Definitely worth our time spent there, and they even had free lockers so we didn’t have to lug our stuff around the museum! 

Now for a couple of ins (things that are working) and outs (things that have caused me some trouble) for this past week.

Ins:

Bolt: Bolt is a cheap EU version of Uber, and it’s incredibly reliable. Both times we took the train this week (to Plzen and Vienna), I was running late and Bolt got us to the train station in 5 minutes for $3. It would’ve been a 15 minute commute otherwise… we love bolt.

Engaging professors: I really struggle with attendance at UM because I prefer to teach myself concepts and cannot focus in most large classroom settings, but attendance is mandatory here. Fortunately, all of my professors have been super fun, flexible, and engaging, particularly for architecture, essential Czech, and tech comm. It really makes all the difference.

Wien: The Germans and Austrians say “Wien” instead of “Vienna” because it is the German name for the city, and German is the primary language in Austria. This is similar to how “Prague” is called “Praha” in the EU, different languages have their own names for cities. A Wiener is a male who comes from Vienna, but it’s also where the word “wiener” comes from when referring to a hot dog.

Outs: 

Paying full price for museum entry: A lot of museums in the EU have a special student discount, or even offer free entry for those under 18. Fortunately, they accept photo IDs for proof of age. Do with that information what you will :)

Unexpected Friday obligations: IFSA had originally told us that Fridays are designated travel days, and we aren’t expected to be in Prague those days. However, they failed to communicate a couple key dates with mandatory events for some of our classes. This resulted in me not being able to miss any classes now for my Leadership class, simply because I booked a flight during one of the mandatory Fridays in March when my dad is coming up… I’m annoyed if you couldn't tell.

Bloody noses: This one explains itself… I get bloody noses a lot due to dryness and low iron problems, but nothing ever as frequent or severe as the ones on this trip. Let’s just say my parents and I were pretty concerned, but I seem to be doing okay now. 

See you all next week!

Čau čau,

Reese Liebman

Computer Science and Engineering

Institute for Study Abroad (IFSA) CS Tech Career Accelerator in Prague, Czechia

[fmpyr2ap]

-Game Proposal-

Project Concept

Within the last 6 projects I have learned to 3D model, Texture models, illustrate digitally and create games in unreal. Through this I have discovered that art and design are my strongest skills and I would like to continue this in the future. Over the course I have learned to use applications such as photoshop, maya, substance painter and unreal, learning to use these programmes has improved the overall quality of my work and helped me develop so much. Before starting the course I had only worked in physical mediums of art and had never tried digital art, now I am extremely confident in using digital mediums to create both 2D and 3D art for games. Ideally I would like to carry on games art further in my education and eventually get a job within the industry.

My concept for this project is to design a 2D top-down pixel art game with a narrative focus. Games such as ‘Fran Bow’ and ‘Little Miss Fortune’ are both narrative driven games with puzzle elements, but they also have a slightly sinister undertone which I wanted to keep in mind for my concept.

The game is set after the protagonist’s father's passing, she navigates the grounds of her inherited family manor. As the game progresses the player pieces together the estate's history by interacting with the ghosts of past workers, accompanied by puzzle elements throughout the game. Visually I have been inspired by Dani Riise who is well known for her architectural set pieces within pixel art design. Her work utilises a top down art style that creates depth to the scenes giving it a feeling of being 3D. This style of art is used across the games industry with games such as Stardew Valley, Atma and Eastward.

I aim to focus more on asset and world building creating pixel art sprites for the architecture of the world, environment elements such as foliage and ground tiles as well as the main character and the animation flip books needed to make smooth movement in game. I will be presenting the artwork as a playable experience using Unreal Engine. Using Unreal will give me the opportunity to add additional details such as User Interface design and allow me to tell the game story through interactions within the game world. 

As I explore my FMP, I will document my process and evaluations on my tumblr blog, whilst also doing google forms throughout to get feedback on my work. I plan to make sure each week i am keeping up with the tasks that i set myself on tumblr. Doing this process for my last projects had been super beneficial for me so I could stay on top of my work load and make sure that I was on track to completing what i had set in past project proposals.

I plan to note down every decision I make whether that is planning, concept art, mind mapping or changing a previous plan. At the end of my project I plan to thoroughly evaluate the final outcome and talk about the my strengths and weaknesses throughout the project.

[beetlejpg]

DM Resources Masterpost

So I’ve been DMing D&D 5e for a couple years now, and that means I’ve collected a ton of free online resources to help the whole process! Without further ado, here’s all of the websites I’ve collected over the years.

NAMING: 

Xanathar’s Missing Pages: Hundreds of surnames for any characters you’re writing! There’s sections for different regions, such as Polynesia, India, and France!

This Reddit thread is a goldmine of shop names! There’s tons of variety for a bunch of different kinds of shops!

This website has a TON of diverse names! Like, seriously, I’ve been using this for two years and I haven’t had to use another website for first names. 

STATBLOCKS: 

5th Edition SRD has a list of NPC statblocks! There’s some based on classes, existing monsters, character archetypes and more!

Outclassed is a compendium of statblocks based on almost every published subclass! It’s pay what you want with a recommended price of 10 USD. I use this CONSTANTLY, and imo it’s one of the best DM resources out there. 

MAPS:

This Subreddit is purely for battle map creators to post their work!  They’re even categorized by genre and location!

This is a post from that subreddit that has a big list of free, semi-free, and paid mapmaking tools.

CityGenerator is a website that generates city maps down to the tiny details. It generates the names and descriptions of important locations in the city, holidays, people, travelers, and more! 

 DungeonFog is a mapmaking website that you can use for all kinds of maps! I’ve used it for combat maps primarily. There is a premium membership, but it’s useable as the free version. 

Owlbear.rodeo is an extremely easy to use interactive online battlemap. I’ve used it a TON as a DM that plays online and hates using roll20. It’s really easy to get the hang of, and there’s nothing to purchase! I can’t recommend this one enough!

D100 LISTS/GENERATORS;

Goblin Punch has this amazing d100 list of minor magical items for any high-rolling pick pocket rogues out there! 

 Donjon has a great Random Magic Shop Generator! You can customize it a bit, and it gives you some interesting details and magic items to give your players.

This dndbeyond thread is a d100 non-combat random encounter table. Great for any non-planned areas your players go into! 

Nerdsonearth have a d100 table of city encounters that’s perfect for writing plot hooks!

This one is a bit weird, but if you have to come up with an NPC on the fly, here’s a Character Voice Generator!

MISC:

The Thieves Guild is an all-around amazing resource for anything D&D. Like, seriously, they have anything you would need .

This is absolutely not a PDF of the Modern Magic Unearthed Arcana. You should not download it because it is not at all useful for modern settings.

This is a giant Google Drive just chock full of oneshots. Some are better than others, but they’re all one page and free, so go at it! 

And, finally, a reminder that even though it is easy and free, you should not google a WOTC official d&d book PDF because it will show up as the first result and you can just download it instead of buying a 30 dollar book. This is bad and illegal and you should not do it <3

This is a living document, so check back on the original post every now and then to see if I’ve added anything. mwah mwah have fun you crazy kids

[passportinspection]

Remake (from memory) of this. Gordon and Borrower!Barney hanging out in Gordon's room. Poster suggestions welcome. :>

Extremely long rant about this thing's creation under the cut.

aaaAAAUUUGGGHHH okay. So imo this poster is kind of a mess and I'm not happy with the lighting at all, but if I work on it for a single second longer I will simply cry.

So there's a gordon model on the sfm workshop that has outfits like the one above, and I was quite determined to make this in gmod, so I had to learn how to port ragdolls from sfm to gmod. You'd think this would be a fairly easy task - they're both source, after all, and there are tutorials - but it was a multiple-weeks-long journey of roadblocks followed by breakthroughs followed immediately by additional roadblocks. There was vital knowledge not in the tutorials. And I didn't fully succeed, anyway - the above image is his sfm body with his gmod head so so so carefully aligned to it in-game (there is a whole additional invisible gordon body in this image). If I wanted to put him in a different pose, I would have to re-align his head. Which is, like... way harder than it has any right to be. Sooo much harder. And that's with the "reference" head I have - like, okay, sfm-gordon's body does have a head attached, but the issue is that it doesn't have the correct facial posing. So I use it as a reference for placing gmod-gordon's head. I know why getting a functioning sfm-gordon head in gmod is harder than than the rest of him (or at least I think I do), and I think I know what I need to do to make it happen (though it will sacrifice a bit of his sfm-level complexity), but I don't yet know how, and at this point spending like 2 hours getting his head aligned juuuust right in-game is so much less time and effort than figuring out how to do that, so... Later, I'll figure it out. Maybe.

But yeah, there was a hell of a lot of very frustrating trial-and-error involved in that whole process because it's very difficult to find resources for a lot of stuff unless you already have the knowledge to know what to look for.

And that was my first trial.

I liked this desk model the best, but it didn't have a bumpmap, so I generated one for it, which made me feel very fancy and tech-proficient, but really all I had to do was open up the texture in vtfedit and click "generate normal map" or whatever. Oh, yeah, I'd been looking into porting models from sketchfab and such into gmod for a while, off-and-on, a while back (and dabbled a tiiiny bit in map-editing too), so the knowledge from then definitely helped me a lot. I probably wouldn't have gotten this poster done if it wasn't for that, because at that point it would have all been too arcane and overwhelming.

But yeah, you can't even actually see anything but the top of the desk, so I could have just chosen a good texture and used a rectangle instead, and the bumpmap is barely visible in this poster, lol.

Then there's the mousepad. It's a re-textured street sign, by the way. :) I put an absurd amount of effort into that too. I got the black mesa logo off google, but the large majority of the effort to turn it into a mousepad involved messing with the texture with tedious in-game tools.

Then, that book, I got it off a free 3d models website, because I didn't like any of my already-available options. I had to learn a bit about UV maps through trial and error in blender to get it to work right, because nothing is easy. That's the first time I've ever actually ported a non-source object into gmod, so that's cool. (Gordon being the first time I've ever ported something at all. To my recollection, anyway...?) Oh, and I had to learn about how to convert a more modern texture format into valve's obsolete one. That involved being subjected to sights like this:

Thank you, developer.valvesoftware.com. (Though really, this part wasn't that hard. I ignored the scary math(?) and it was fine.)

Next was the mug. All the mug models I had were not smoothly circular enough for me (Or I think maybe there was one or two, but I really didn't like their shape either way). They were quite obviously made of a few flat planes arranged into a circle-ish shape, and that just wouldn't do. So I went and found another free 3d model, slapped the black mesa logo on it, and put it in gmod. I... Did not consider how much more complex it would be as something intended for 3d art / ads rather than video games; I think it has more vertices than Gordon, LOL. It's not so many that it actually lags the game, so it doesn't really matter, but I do find it funny.

And then those papers! I remembered that letter sent to Gordon from the PS2 Half-Life case had a coffee mug stain on it, and I wanted it on the table, but, remembering how much of a pain it was to make the mousepad, I opted to actually create my own models for them this time. They're just rectangles, after all, so it's not like the modeling part was going to be a challenge.

Well, it wasn't a challenge, really, but it did take quite a bit longer than I had expected, partially since I had to muddle through stuff I only sort of had an understanding of. Anyway, it took like, an hour and a half, or two hours? I finally get it into the game, and as I'm putting it on the table, I realize... The coffee stain is in black and white. OTL

So. I put the other page on top. Sad. I mean, I could have just added a free in-color coffee-stain png to the texture somewhere, but. *Gestures.* I had expended too much energy so far to be in the mood to do that.

And this barney model... It is cursed somehow. Or it hates me. The more you pose it, the more resistant it becomes to being posed. The posing tools just.. don't do what you ask them to do after a certain point. So I wasn't super happy with the pose but it was good enough. ToT Originally I wanted to post 3 posters with them in different poses as if they were having a conversation, but yeah, I am not posing that Barney any more, lol. It may have been the fault of the tool I used to make him Small, I'm not sure. Will need further testing.

And THEN.

I take 18 different lightbounce renders, writing down the settings I used and whatever I did differently each time, trying to feel out the tool and find a render I really like. (Last time I kinda just did whatever and settled on an early render I liked without really bothering to figure it out much). At render #18, I get one I'm happy with, so I throw it into GIMP and- oh, now it looks different and bad. Wtf. I try a different image editing program and the same thing happens. I google the issue and decide it probably has to do with some crappy default windows color settings getting imported into the program along with the image, and decide I'll go to bed and deal with that tomorrow. (Oh, yeah, I kept staying up way too late thinking I'd just finish the poster before I went to bed, but never finishing it...)

But no! As I find out the next day from more googling and experimentation, it turns out the windows photo app auto-"enhances" your photos. I'd been judging the renders by how they looked in the app this whole time, so the way it looks in GIMP is how it actually looks. All that experimentation on what looks best the night before... Done on the basis of how they looked after windows "enhanced" them without me knowing.. OTL

And so today I do some more lightbounce render experimentation. I try again and again, but I can't get it to look the way I was able to make it look before, even accounting for the auto-"enhancement". No clue what I did different that night, but okay. So I settle for the way the renders have decided to look tonight, and try to get one that I like the best out of the options it's giving me, but... This tool was created by arcane wizards. This tool is a wild, untamed beast. Even in the same session, I'll be like, "How did I do that and how do I make it happen again." Eventually I kind of gave up and just worked with the most inoffensive one I could generate. I suspect this tool wasn't designed with such small scenes in mind.

The main light source render - well, i hardly experimented with it, because I just wanted to be done with this freakin' thing already.

Anyway, that's... most of it. How long has it been? Like a month? And I was working on this nearly every day. All just for this thing. But it consumed me, man. I couldn't focus on anything else.

Maybe now I can do other things... Like I said, I'm really not happy with the lighting, but I'm so excited to just put this behind me. orz Hopefully my dissatisfaction doesn't turn into an un-ignorable need to keep fiddling with it. I refuse. I refuse! I am doing something else now!

Oh, however! In the process of all that, I may have found out a way to be able to facepose resized-barney, something as-of-yet impossible for me. Still have to try it out. Exciting stuff...

[amothersmagik]

Merry Meet!

So, I am climbing up on my soapbox today. I see it asked all the time: "where do I start?"

And every answer seems the same: Research!

Great! But what does that mean? How and where do I research?? ... Starting out in The Craft is both easy and extremely challenging. Prior to the internet, research meant knowing or hoping to randomly meet other Practioners who could guide you. Or, if you were brave, checking a local library. At that point, starting was hard because getting access to information was hard.

Now we have the internet. And the problem exists in reverse. There is now SO much info available that it can be overwhelming at times. It certainly was for my nerodivergent brain. So I have typed up a "brief" summary of my process so that mayhap it will help others::

Research research research! There is so much out there and it can be so overwhelming. How i personally suggest you start? First, accept that you dont need fancy tools and ingredients to be a successful Witch You are enough as you are.

From a research aspect:

1. Look up the major types of spell work. (Candle, Kitchen, Jar, Offering, Sigils, Simmer Pots, Intention Spells, Oils, Sachets, Sprays, etc). This will give you an idea just how broad actual Craft and spellwork can be. Also, it will strike some examples of what to research and give you an idea what you will be most interested in. For example, I primarily love jar spells, sigils, and simmer pots.

2. Make a list of a couple types of spells or works that interest you. Like healing, self love, cord cuttings, etc. This will give you a list to work of to then build your research plan/database.

PLEASE NOTE, I PERSONALLY RECCOMEND THAT YOU DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY OF THESE SPELLS YET. I AM SUGGESTING YOU MAP THIS ALL OUT SO YOU HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE BREADTH OF THE CRAFT. It will also help you decide what kind of Crafter you will likely be. Personally, I am eclectic, and grey with very white leanings. I am not actually Wiccan, though the Wiccan aspect plays a huge role in my Craft.

Huge massive tip in looking stuff up? Using google or your fav search engine, type "metaphysical properties of____" or "magickal/magical correspondences of____" or simply "_____ Correspondences" and you can either read the articles and links or simply look through the images section. Though not everything will have extensive info available.

3. Pick a random spell. Anything. Now RESEARCH what doing that spell would entail. This will give you an idea of what kinds of things to research and where you want to put your emphasis.

For example, I wanted to do an anti anxiety spell. So I researched that. Discovered I have a flair for sigils. Then quickly realized I am an AVID Jar spell kinda gal 😅😁 So I then went searching for jar spells for  anti anxiety to see what would be required. Then realized how many different ways there are to do one. Which lead me to research crystals and herbs to find what ingredients to use for what. Which lead to me making my own comprehensive hard physical copy (alphabetical, might I add) of all the herbs and plants I could find and their many uses. Did the same with crystals. Then candles and their color meanings. Which lead to color magick research.

(..... It has now been 3 years since I went looking for that anti anxiety spell and I haven't performed it yet. I HAVE found so much peace within myself as I have settled into my Craft by learning. Because remember, witchcraft is NOT always JUST about performing spells. Anyway... back on topic)

I quickly realized how much info there was out there to learn and how to go about it.

Id also research the sabbats and all they entail.

Research deities for future knowledge. Though I suggest waiting on actual deity work until you are further down your path  but that is a personal preference.

Research cleansing types and methods.

At the end of the day, your path and your Craft is your own. Follow your intuition and instincts. Follow your heart and soul. And do as much as you can to research something before casting. Google is your friend. Also, i have a list of books. If you want it, just as a place to start, let me know :)

Once you start spell craft, I found it easiest to start with Sigils, once I got the hang of those, I moved on to simmer pots and candle magick (easiest ingredients to get ahold of for me). After getting comfortable with those, I moved on to Offering Spells. Then Jar Spells. I have more or less stopped there in my actual spell progression, as I have found I excel at and greatly enjoy Jar Spells. I have also ventured into oil rollers, sprays, sachets, etc. And I occasionally do rituals, like cord cuttings or ritual baths, but have not overly ventured in those directions. As such, I research as needed for those types of spells.

Shadow work and observing the Sabbats were also a huge learning opportunity for me.

People always say "do your shadow work" and it took me forever to realize they mean working on yourself. Facing your inner demons. Accepting your faults and working to correct those you can. Accepting yourself for who you are and learning to love yourself and be happy with who you are.

Researching the Sabbats and how the many cultures celebrate and honor them gave me another way to research and learn and then work that new knowledge into my craft. People jump over a fire during Beltane. Why? There is a good research topic for you. Yellow flowers, why are they important in the spring? Why are apples associated with fertility. What kinds of activities are engaged in for Samhain? Why?

And along the way of these activities and researching, you will find yourself learning things that can help you elsewhere. Like learning about the color green and its importance at Beltane will later help you in health and fertility spells.

I think I started actually performing spells about 1/4 of my way through all this research. Once I had a good enough basis to understand the materials I was working with and knew my energy and magic enough to feel comfortable and confident in my workings.

I still perform lots of research regularly, but have reached a comfort zone in my Craft where I don't do big things every day, or even every week, but I work my craft in in little ways, sometimes even unconsciously. I have found I am happy, comfortable, confident and at peace with my self and the life I live. And a stable and reliable Craft is a great addition to that peace, if not outright the building blocks for it in my case.

My inbox is open if anyone has questions. Wants to chat. Wants a new witchy friend. Etc. As a Polyamorous, Pansexual, Christian Druidic Mother and Wife who is 420 friendly...... I am an open book with nothing to hide and virtually no judgement left in my brain. I don't care who you are. Do no harm, take no shit and we will be a-okay :)

Merry Part and Blessed Be

[sociallyinsmmagency]

How Growth Marketing Works

At its most basic, Growth Marketing is a process of continual experimentation across all channels and touchpoints in order to identify and scale the most effective acquisition channels. In other words, it's a methodical approach to finding and growing your customer base. 

Growth marketing is data-driven and results-oriented, with a focus on iterative improvements. It's different from traditional marketing in that it's not about creating awareness or building brand equity. Instead, its sole focus is on generating new leads and driving conversions. 

In order to do this effectively, growth marketers rely on a solid understanding of the customer acquisition funnel—the stages that a potential customer goes through on their journey from awareness to purchase. By mapping out this funnel and setting clear goals for each stage, growth marketers can experiment with different acquisition strategies and tactics to find what works best. 

The Four Stages of the Customer Acquisition Funnel 

Awareness: The first stage of the customer acquisition funnel is Awareness, where potential customers become aware of your product or service. This is usually done through paid advertising, although organic methods like content marketing and search engine optimization (SEO) can also be effective. 

# Paid Advertising: Pay-per-click (PPC) ads are one of the most common forms of paid advertising. PPC ads are typically displayed at the top and bottom of search engine results pages (SERPs), as well as on websites that are part of the Google Display Network (GDN). 

# Content Marketing: Creating informative blog posts, helpful how-to guides, or even just short articles that are relevant to your target audience can help attract new leads to your website. Once they're there, you can capture their contact information with a lead magnet like an ebook or white paper. 

# Search Engine Optimization (SEO): By optimizing your website for specific keywords that are relevant to your business, you can entice potential customers who are searching for those terms to visit your site instead of your competitors. 

Consideration: Once potential customers are aware of your product or service, they need time to consider whether or not it's right for them. This is where having a strong value proposition comes in—you need to convince potential customers that your product or service is worth their money. Useful content like in-depth product guides and detailed case studies can help with this by providing potential customers with the information they need to make an informed decision. 

Paid Advertising: retargeting ads can be extremely effective at this stage since they allow you to show ads specifically to people who have visited your website before but didn't convert into a lead or customer. 

# Content Marketing: If you have gated content like ebooks or white papers on your website, now is when you offer them up in exchange for potential customers' contact information. By doing this, you 'warm up' leads by giving them valuable content before trying to sell them anything directly. 

Conversion: Once consideration has been made and users have decided that they want what you're offering, it's time to convert them into paying customers—this is the goal of any growth marketer! Effective methods for doing this include adding strong calls-to-action (CTAs) on key pages of your website and using landing pages to drive conversions from specific lead-generation campaigns. Paid Advertising: If done correctly, paid advertising can be extremely effective at driving conversions because you have more control over who sees your ads and when they see them. 

Growth marketing is essential for any business that wants to survive long-term in today's competitive climate— plain and simple. By taking a data-driven approach and continually experimenting with different acquisition channels, you can ensure that your marketing efforts are always geared towards maximum efficiency and profitability. And while it does require some effort upfront to map out your customer acquisition funnel and establish goals for each stage, the payoff is more than worth it in terms of increased leads and revenue!